EPTI'm sure you've read my opinion on this type of question before, but I think that Jailbreaker is the most obvious candidate for a lynch. First, I think he looks the scummiest. We want to get rid of the scum. But secondly, if we're wrong and he turns out to be town, we aren't going to lose much. His posts are confusing, shallow, and (with the "nononononono you are planet wrong" post) actively making an argument not to lynch scum, without evidence, and against his earlier stance "THERES MAFIA SCUM AMONG US". Using my patented SCUm DEtection Probability (SCUDEP: my arbitrary estimates of the probability that a player is mafia), I'd say Jailbreakers maxing at maybe 55% (compared to 20% random), but we would only really lose a number from our town count, and gain freedom from seemingly actively dumb posts.
Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia XI - Page 20
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Mordanis
United States893 Posts
I'm sure you've read my opinion on this type of question before, but I think that Jailbreaker is the most obvious candidate for a lynch. First, I think he looks the scummiest. We want to get rid of the scum. But secondly, if we're wrong and he turns out to be town, we aren't going to lose much. His posts are confusing, shallow, and (with the "nononononono you are planet wrong" post) actively making an argument not to lynch scum, without evidence, and against his earlier stance "THERES MAFIA SCUM AMONG US". Using my patented SCUm DEtection Probability (SCUDEP: my arbitrary estimates of the probability that a player is mafia), I'd say Jailbreakers maxing at maybe 55% (compared to 20% random), but we would only really lose a number from our town count, and gain freedom from seemingly actively dumb posts. | ||
|
Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Also, Jailbreaker hasn't posted at all in 32 hours, with only 7 to go before lynching time. I honestly can't seem to find anything he's done that could take some suspicion off. If he's town, he's doing a reeeeeeeeeeeeeally bad job of it. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 01 2012 23:56 Mordanis wrote: In response to Marvellosity's question about whether Jailbreaker is bad town or mafia: I'm sure you've read my opinion on this type of question before, but I think that Jailbreaker is the most obvious candidate for a lynch. First, I think he looks the scummiest. We want to get rid of the scum. But secondly, if we're wrong and he turns out to be town, we aren't going to lose much. His posts are confusing, shallow, and (with the "nononononono you are planet wrong" post) actively making an argument not to lynch scum, without evidence, and against his earlier stance "THERES MAFIA SCUM AMONG US". Using my patented SCUm DEtection Probability (SCUDEP: my arbitrary estimates of the probability that a player is mafia), I'd say Jailbreakers maxing at maybe 55% (compared to 20% random), but we would only really lose a number from our town count, and gain freedom from seemingly actively dumb posts. I hate this type of reasoning. If it's a mislynch, then basically we lose two townies for free (barring the unlikely event Mafia KP at night is blocked). Then we're back in the Day cycle with the same number of mafias and two less townies. However useless he is, this is not good for town. | ||
|
Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
Based on all the information to date, my strongest read is on Jailbreaker. I share the same niggles Marvellosity stated earlier, but also think that getting a successfully mafia lynch day 1 has us in a great position today. If Jailbreaker flips town? Well as he's such an easy target we're not likely to learn too much from who voted, which is my biggest concern. But based on a series of suspicious posts, and no response at all to the cases made against him in conjunction with lurking, he makes by the far the best lynching candidate we have. ##Vote: Jailbreaker | ||
|
Mordanis
United States893 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
6 townies 2 mafia is an infinitely worse situation than 8 townies 2 mafia with 1 townie you think is bad. | ||
|
Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
However, we are ahead of the game with our successful lynch day 1, which makes our day 2 lynch result less critical, but it's still obviously important. marvellosity, if you're not getting a scum read on Jailbreaker or are more suspicious of someone else, who would you want to lynch in his place? You're in an interesting position as you arrived into the game late, and the person you replaced created a lot of suspicion. You've done a good job so far of alleviating that suspicion but we still don't have much to go off. You're obviously concerned with the result of this lynch, so give us something more to work with if you aren't supporting the lynch on Jailbreaker. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
Jailbreaker does look pretty scummy (as per my case against him), and as it stands now I can't think of a better lynch candidate. I think generally I'm always just a little concerned at 'easy' lynches just because they're easy. Seems like it should be harder. Nonetheless: ##Vote: Jailbreaker | ||
|
WhySoMuch
132 Posts
@Mordanis, you can't argue with people that use bad logic. But you are right and they are wrong, Jailbreaker is the right lynch regardless of the result. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
| ||
|
The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
##Vote: Jailbreaker | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
Also I'm not even sure my vote matters anymore... but w/e ##Vote: Jailbreaker | ||
|
WhySoMuch
132 Posts
On May 02 2012 01:54 marvellosity wrote: Bad logic is that 8 townies is better than 6? ok. No. But if we don't lynch him today, we are going to have the same discussion tomorrow so we aren't gonna progress and probably end up lynching him tomorrow and even if we don't, there's no way for him to be clear so at some point he is going to be lynched anyways, therefore, the best play is to lynch him. He is likely mafia but if he isn't it's not bad. Bad logic is that you aren't seeing this. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
You have attained jubjub status. | ||
|
Mordanis
United States893 Posts
Or what if you wer 65% sure one player was mafia, but he posted a lot and made a lot of sense. But another player was up for lynching, and you were only 45% sure he was mafia, and he posted illogically, inconsistently, and generally badly. Which one would you vote for (Since this is a thought experiment, think of the percentages more generally plz)? Personally, the one who posted worse seems like the better candidate to me because its a lower risk/ lower reward, in other words its the safer play. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 02 2012 03:07 Mordanis wrote: First of all, your 8 vs. 6 implies that the mafia won't score a hit. It would make infinitely more sense to say 7 vs. 6. And I think that 6 townies would fair better without someone who acts thought than 7 townies with someone who makes no sense. That being said, I never said that we should lynch people just because they don't make sense or don't contribute. For people who already seem scummy, it is a way to state that a mis-lynch wouldn't destroy one of the core members, or the flow of information through the thread. I'm curious whether you would support a no-lynch if Jailbreaker seemed less scummy? Or what if you wer 65% sure one player was mafia, but he posted a lot and made a lot of sense. But another player was up for lynching, and you were only 45% sure he was mafia, and he posted illogically, inconsistently, and generally badly. Which one would you vote for (Since this is a thought experiment, think of the percentages more generally plz)? Personally, the one who posted worse seems like the better candidate to me because its a lower risk/ lower reward, in other words its the safer play. My 8 vs 6 implies this. We are in a day cycle with 8 town 2 mafia. If we lynch a townie, we are again in the day cycle but this time with 6 town 2 mafia. This is the problem with mislynching, you're losing 2 townies. If you lynch scum, you're 7 townies 1 mafia. The difference between 6-2 and 7-1 is immense. This is why you always lynch your strongest scum-read. So to your 2nd paragraph. The only correct play is to lynch the 65% read. For reasons explained above. Choosing the option that is more likely to yield 6-2 instead of 7-1 is ludicrous. | ||
|
WhySoMuch
132 Posts
When you do that, tell me my logic is flawed. To start, why are villager lists bad? What harm do they do to the Town? What benefits do they give to the Town? Next, why is my logic in that previous post bad? And stop saying "No good player ever uses", you prolly know like 5 good players. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
I know plenty of good players, I read this forum like a whore. | ||
|
Mordanis
United States893 Posts
In any case though, Jailbreaker is IMO the better scum read than Nreekay, and also the worse player. But I have to agree, this lynch is going too easily. I'm going to look into any reasons why... Hopefully I'll be able to post some reasons for the easiness in a bit.  | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 02 2012 03:23 Mordanis wrote: 65-45 isn't as big of a split as you seem to think it is. And I'd say that the idiot is more likely to derail the process in the future, and the longer there is only one mafia in the game the more difficult I'd say it is to tell who it is. Literally all the one mafia has to do is defend himself and blend in while killing one person per night. The odds aren't that good if a few days are wasted talking about whoever the idiot is attacking. Whereas with two mafia left vs. 6 competent players, I see a much greater likelihood that the 6 can work together and find holes in the mafia's play. Long story short, this seems much more of a play-style thing than an objectively right or wrong situation. You prefer an overwhelming majority of numbers, I prefer to be able to have a group that is capable of finding the mafia through reason. In any case though, Jailbreaker is IMO the better scum read than Nreekay, and also the worse player. But I have to agree, this lynch is going too easily. I'm going to look into any reasons why... Hopefully I'll be able to post some reasons for the easiness in a bit. I don't even | ||
| ||
