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@zealous
After filtering and reread few times, i am still not convinced that you made a strong case of defending yourself.
instead of mentioning that someone is suspcicious, you instantly use prhases like scum/most scummy to describe a response.
On April 24 2012 20:24 Zealos wrote:Then, as a responce to an accusation, he attacks the very fact that someone accused him, as opposed to arguing the point Show nested quote +Initially claiming you may not want to lynch anybody, then launching seemingly unfounded accusations, then pressuring everyone else to follow you blindly seems pretty scummy to me. This is one of the most Scummy first day's I've seen in my 3 games so far.
It seems like you're trying to try to instantly link the "scum" word into someone, and this is suspicious to me.
##Vote Zealos
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Vote count:
MajuGarzett: 2
yomi
Dracolich70
Zealos
yomi: 5
ArcticFox
ForTheDr3am
mutant
MajuGarzett
imallinson
Zealos: 3
insectoceanx
nreekay324
oneplus
imallinson: 1
yomi
Not voting: 1
St.Daniel
With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch. The day ends at 19:00 PST, or a little over 6 hours from now.
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Hey guys, posting on my lunch break.
@yomi: I'm not enraged.
The crux of your argument seems to be that I was pro-lynch and pro-discussion, while criticizing you for the same thing. No, I'm criticizing you for being inconsistant, and being unable to argue against that inconsistancy.
@Everyone Else: I haven't really wanted to discuss my other lynches yet, as I wanted to get more information from how people have been posting without them knowing what I'm looking for exactly. (I also didn't want to give yomi the opportunity to narrowly squeeze out of a day1 lynch, as he did in his last game.) I won't list out my reads on everyone, but I will offer my comments on the 4 that ArcticFox mentioned:
yomi - I've made my case on him, others have made their case on him. He's been unable to properly answer those cases.
Zealos - Started out by making overly-aggressive posts. His posts are overly negative. He hasn't defended his behaviour. He was going to be my ##FoS, until yomi made his first post. Would support a lynch.
imallinson - Had a pretty good post recently, and he gave clearly defined opinions of the subject of who to lynch. Was kind of thinking lurker-scum, now have basically a null read.
MajuGarrett - Struck me as (new) town when he first posted, and ever since then my read is the same. Is not afraid to take the spotlight, which is characteristic of pro-town play.
Overall, I support a yomi lynch the most, and Maju the least.
And with that I'm back off to work. I'll try to keep an eye on the thread, but I won't be able to post much until I get back home (which yesterday was 6:15 PDT. Stupid busses :/)
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I don't know how you can call allin's post "good". It is definite red. Typical passive, bandwagon, blank post. Tries to fill it with content but the "reads" are just summaries and have no substance. Doesn't want to stick his neck out, doesn't want to make his own case, wants to bandwagon + lurk. mafia love to bandwagon + lurk. He rolled mafia again.
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3.5 hours to deadline and still nobody set to lynch. With the targets we have up for lynch, I'm adamantly opposed to a no-lynch.
St.Daniel -- Still need to hear from you, and need your vote.
(Question for Mods -- if someone doesn't vote, does that mean we only need 6 to lynch? (since it's only 11 voting?) or does it just count as a "no lynch" vote for voting purposes and we'd still need 7?)
I think at this point we can safely narrow it down to yomi or Zealos for lynch candidates tonight.
For those who have a vote that isn't on either yomi or Zealos -- can you be persuaded to vote for one of these targets instead so Day 1 isn't a no-lynch? Or is a no-lynch a better idea in your mind? If so, why?
For those currently voting Zealos -- I know at least a couple of you also have yomi as your second strongest scum read. What would it take to persuade your vote over to yomi?
If we end up with a no-lynch because people are opposed to either yomi or Zealos based on insufficient evidence, that's fine, if questionable (and as mentioned, I'm against it since we have solid targets), but it means that the decision to no-lynch was made. But if we just end up with a no-lynch because people didn't bother to check the thread before the deadline, then we're in serious trouble and making mafia's job incredibly easy.
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ya look how little content we've generated so far. I flamed people for spamming last game because the activity level made me very nervous as mafia. I knew I would have to post a lot. You guys are letting them fit in with the other lurkers easy mode.
As far as not lyching, obviously if we do lynch it's going to be me so that's bad. But in general I'm not sure how certain you have to be for a profitable lynch. The baseline is 3/12 = .25. If we lynch when we are 50% sure:
day 1 you lose town
night 1 lose town
day 2 kill mafia
night 2 lose town
day 3 lose town
night 3 lose town
day 4 kill mafia
night 4 lose town
and now we have 1 mafia vs 3 town players. So you don't have to be THAT sure to lynch. And this is with losing the first 50/50 and no town power role block/heal/vigi etc.
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well that's 6 on me so I'm just about dead. ill post something later but this is a pretty pitiful town, I would bet a lot on mafia right now
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On April 25 2012 07:51 yomi wrote:
ya look how little content we've generated so far. I flamed people for spamming last game because the activity level made me very nervous as mafia. I knew I would have to post a lot. You guys are letting them fit in with the other lurkers easy mode.
If you have suggestions on how to get the town to post more, I'm all ears. I've called out several people by name, but I can't put pressure on all of them at once if they all refuse to post more than 1 or 2 lines once or twice a day. =/ There can't be 6 scum in the game, but that's the level of activity I'm seeing in the filters.
On April 25 2012 07:46 St.Daniel wrote:
##Vote: yomi
The vote is nice, but...do you have anything extra to add to the subject? Any other reads to share with the town since this is the first thing you've said in a day and a half?
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I voted for the biggest lurker and made a (small) case against him
/shrug dont know what else to do
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daniel obv also suspicious with the lurk + bandwagon
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On April 25 2012 08:03 yomi wrote:
I voted for the biggest lurker and made a (small) case against him
/shrug dont know what else to do
So who else can you put a case together against? So far you've spent a day calling Maju a dunce, then another randomly jumping around throwing suspicions toward a bunch of different people as soon as the votes started piling up on you. You started to put together some info on mutant, cobbling together a trumped up case that didn't really say much of anything. You voted imallinson only after I'd already posted about him, which looks like a desperation move from my perspective.
If you do get lynched tonight and flip green, you know we're going to go over the contents and look at what you've said. If you want to make a contribution, now's the time to start.
I'm still convinced you're going to flip red though, as nothing you've said so far has made me believe you're acting in the best interests of town.
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EBWOP -- Your posts have also conveniently never once mentioned Zealos, which is town's #2 scum choice right now. His posts also don't directly address any cases against you. It seems weird to me that the top 2 suspects have nothing to say about each other when they're up for vote.
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2 hours to deadline, nothing to make me want to come off of yomi yet. 1 more vote on yomi seals the lynch.
Dracolich70, Zealos, insectoceanx, nreekay324, oneplus -- Are the 5 of you ok with a no-lynch based on the information we have? It's on one of you to switch your vote to yomi if you want his lynch to go through. Otherwise we get to go through this whole routine again on Day 2.
"Sorry I missed the deadline," won't be an acceptable excuse, either. With ~54 hours played, we have more than enough activity information to really start pressing the lurkers hard on Day 2. Inactivity only hurts the town.
Speaking of -- St.Daniel, I'm still waiting on you to post something more substantial after a day and a half abscence.
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Sorry, I'm being replaced out and I didn't wanted to get modkilled.
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@nreekay and insect
Both of you have had suspcions about yomi previously. Though I suspect Zealos of being scum as well, are either of you willing to change your vote to yomi? I voted yomi as I think that yomi's actions were indicative of mafia play while for Zealos it seemed to be more a lack of opinionated contribution for a good while. In my opinion yomi's mafia like actions were better evidence.
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first thing I realized I attributed a quote to AF that was actually from nreekay.
on zealos:
This is one of the most Scummy first day's I've seen in my 3 games so far.
This I thought was really weird because I, myself, am having a very hard time picking out scum. As I said before, it is just so easy for them to fit in with the lurkers and bandwagoners. I don't know what he thinks is so scummy about the posting, I don't think anyone has posted anything super suspicious.
Then he makes this attack on yomi that makes very little sense to me + Show Spoiler +Yomi seems suspicious to me. He says he isn't sure about lynching someone then votes when no one else has. That makes it more likely someone will be lynched. Also, he gave no reasons as to why I should be lynched. This makes me think he's a mafia who just wants to get some townie lynched.
the case against me is pretty stupid because mafia don't play the way I'm playing. BUT this is probably the best statement of it. Notice the lack of the later hyperbole where I am actually correctly quoted "he says he ISN'T SURE" about lynching someone. later attacks all misquote (actually everyone refuses to use real quotes this game derp) me saying I explicitly opposed a lynch. Also I like how it actually connects the dots to a motivation "he's a mafia who wants to get a townie lynched". Others basically don't like me and my aggressive play and equate that with "suspicion" but here it makes some sense. but mafia don't go about getting people lynched this way.
He claims at the end of the post
however, I only said Maju's argument was flawed, no the conclusion.
But he hasn't really explained why it's flawed.
And he says I'm his #2 yet says the case against me is flawed.
@zealos
So if the argument is flawed, what is the correct argument for lynching me?
I think this may be a mafia trying to set themselves up for a 1-2. He knows the lynch on me is pretty much going through no matter what and he wants to be on the good side of it. He wants to make it yomi vs maju. So then when I flip green he can get town to go onto maju, a weak player he knows won't be able to defend himself. This is how I played the last game. I meekly opposed the first lynch to gain town cred just so I could then push through my first day choice.
If he actually defended me that's one thing. The people that have really defended me are pretty much town. No mafia would defend what seems like a sure-lynch. But this way he gets to jump on the obvious next target a bit early without impeding the lynch on me.
Also the introduction is too apologetic. This is typical of TLers to be way overly polite but only mafia really apologize and suck up to town. He's from the UK where people are generally a little more blunt.
while I was writing this daniel quit. I think town are way more likely to quit than mafia.
People voting for me does not equal mafia.
People defending me equals town.
UNLESS they are trying to build town cred by "calling" the lynch correctly, and are targetting on to the next most likely to be lynched players. oneplus is definitely not doing this.
draco is in a lot of ways by making the same play as zealos. he's getting ready to quote himself when I flip town and say see, I told you so, now look at my case against maju in the context of maju vs yomi. but maju vs yomi has never really been a big thing like draco and zealos want to make it out to be. we flamed each other with one liners in the first few pages and it flickered out and is no big deal now.
he wants to quote this tomorrow:
Thirdly when yomi votes for him, he immediately counter-accuses yomi, with this: "Yomi seems suspicious to me. He says he isn't sure about lynching someone then votes when no one else has. That makes it more likely someone will be lynched. Also, he gave no reasons as to why I should be lynched. This makes me think he's a mafia who just wants to get some townie lynched."
I see a problem with this on multiple levels. First off, he offers consensus as the most important thing, but doesn't register that yomi is willing to bow down for this very consensus if it is as such. He asks for reasonable things from yomi - things he himself does not offer in return,
nreeke also defended me somewhat but I'm not so sure about him and am getting really tired I've been writing this post forever
mutant is a fucking nutjob. watch this guy. I think he's the xatalos of last game, just a super eager emotionally invested towny but read the guy's filter. really intense. very very interested in my lynch. how can a town be so unequivocal right now? I'll excuse it in AF b/c he played the last game w/ me and I am playing this one very similarly and he has a little grudge against me I guess from last game.
the game is a lot harder as town I'll tell you that. but look at who defended me and why. mostly these people are going to be your townies, as the level 1 thinking is that a mafia would want to push through a lynch on a towny asap (mutant). But we can give them credit for being a little more clever than that. Watch for people who are trying to set up for a play off of me flipping town. Remember all the mafia in the game right now know that I am about to flip green and want to position themselves to come out strong tomorrow and build a case around my having flipped green. They pretty much "won" today whenever I got to like 3 or 4 votes it was clear I was going down. Then they would have started to create false dichotomies around me vs x player to build off of tomorrow. I'm heading to the library now, I'm sure I'll look at the thread again but this is prob my last big post.
good luck guys.
you are being way way way way too passive right now. post. a lot more. don't let anyone lurk. make them just post whatever's on their mind. this is SUPER stressful for mafia. mafia have to re-read their posts 10 times before posting and are super super careful about everything. making them have to give an opinion on everything is awful for a mafia. so punish (really punish, not just threaten) the lurkers hard and anyone that won't come out with near-constant lists of their reads on everyone and why. mafia hate hate hate that environment. on the other hand don't let it get super cluttered. just make everyone come out with frequent clear posts. last game you guys really almost had us on day 2. it was super scary how the posting was going. very organized, very clear, very concise. I just managed to discredit xatalos to win it but otherwise you guys had us made, many of the lists had 3 or 4 players picked of which 2 were mafia.
firm, aggressive, but reasoned and frequent posting is mafia's enemy.
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well I was coming off of maju but I just read his post now. I understand you don't like my play but what about it is mafia? A mafia would try to get a townie lynched by coming out like a manic and accusing someone? this is not the play of a mafia I assure you. you will see that later tonight when I flip and then you will realize that mafia like to:
1) lurk
2) defend themselves
3) bandwagon
they DO NOT:
1) stick their neck out
2) play risky
3) create original cases unless there is a dire need for it (see last game me vs xatalos).
maju is really new and is prob just a noob but still you gotta watch him. draco made a pretty great post against the guy
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also if they do create a case they won't stick to it really hard like a townie will because they are afraid of making enemies. mafia like to make friends. townies, especially vanilla townies, play fearlessly. they don't really care too much about being lynched, especially early on.
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EPT
