TL Mafia 'Area' LIII - Page 5

On May 05 2012 09:36 Mattchew wrote:
everything can be explained with how I explained it. If i was actually vig and i had shot risen, and he didn't die, I wouldn't claim that immediately, because as gonzaw said Risen couldn't possibly be stupid enough to last minute switch as scum if ottox/zeph were both town. This means ottox/risen's alignment would have had to be the same, or Risen is stupid. If I am watching someone that could be goon and takes away the last scum KP get lynched, then why would I claim. I keep town on a need to know basis as town.

You can argue that I shoulda/coulda/woulda shot earlier but thats just you putting your own thoughts into my head.

How about a BM+BK+Daniel+Risen scumteam then? >_>
They will be called "The Teenage Mutant Ninja Mafia"

By Bluelightz
If they Mislynch now its lylo tommorow if scum get a kill (which they will since JK is sentinel and they can kill him no problemo.)

On May 06 2012 11:58 Mattchew wrote:
Just wanna say that gonzaw if you believe you and pac actually caught me day1 (with the reasoning given) you guys are gonna mislynch me alot in the future

"Trolling" and distancing yourself from other scumbuddies are not "absurd" plays at all.

As in, yes you could say that trolling and saying something like "I'm vig...wait I'm not" or "I'm scum people!" or something could be considered "absurd"; but it's very instantaneous and easy to do, by both town and scum, and it doesn't have any lasting or meaningful consequences (other than people berating you for trolling) to be considered absurd either.

For instance, Risen's switch did have lasting consequences, mostly that everybody thought he was scum sacrificing himself for quite a time (at least until the "that play is so absurd he must be town" reasoning kicked in).

Also, the point of these "absurd" plays, is that they don't contradict the assumption that you are town. If you start saying "Okay people I'm scum, you got me just lynch me" and then 10 hours later you say "Oh I was trolling there sorry" nobody will think you are town at all.


Also, the other thing about these absurd plays, is not only about other people determining your alignment just because of it, it's about if they further a scum agenda or not (if you were scum). The absurd plays I'm talking about are the ones that don't, or at least don't in a preliminary analysis.

For instance, in a preliminary analysis, Risen's switch doesn't further a scum agenda if he were scum. There is 1 townie getting lynched, and the other one is a townie too. He knows that if one of them is lynched and flips green it's likely the other will be misslynched in the future. He also has his vote already placed and is fine with his current position.
Making the switch to kill Zephird before Ottox wouldn't push an apparent scum agenda, because he knows that the one he saves will likely get lynched without his intervention either, and the only thing he is doing is making it VERY likely that he will be lynched himself by that action alone.
"Would scum take this risk just because?" The answer is "NO".

However, if townies analyze this above situation, then they will reach the same conclusion. Therefore they will conclude Risen is town. That is a nice "absurd" reward if he were to make that play, which is what I'm talking about.

Another example.I analyzed Midnights switch vote towards ghost and unvote, and I tried to come up with a scum agenda. "Why would a scum Midnight do this?".
He could have done it to disrupt the thread a little bit, but nothing else, he doesn't have any reward whatsoever.
Now, what would he be risking? He risks everybody FoSing him because he FoSed someone else without any reason at all, and then unvoted him immediately and dropped the subject entirely. People get confused and therefore suspicious, and lo and behold he got lynched afterwards.
"Would scum take this risk just because?". The answer is "NO".

However, if townies reach this conclusion, they will conclude he's town. That's a nice "absurd" reward again, so if he takes the risk and does that he can get people to think he's town.



There are similarities in these situations too.
If Risen was scum, and hadn't done that play, he would have been fine. He wouldn't be likely a lynch candidate soon for instance, and could still play normally later. It was not necessary at all to make an "absurd" play if he was scum (he wasn't in the chopping block for instance).
Same with Midnight, not doing that wouldn't have caused him much troubles if he was scum. As in, he would have less suspicion on him, and could do something later, it wasn't anything definitive so it wasn't necessary to do so at all either.

However they differ a lot in one thing: the chance that townies will actually analyze the situation.
I don't think nobody ever decided to analyze Midnight's ghost vote and it's motivation. No townie playing the game would either. Why? Because it was very subtle, not many people could even have picked it up when trying to determine Midnight's alignment. Another thing is that said action makes it easier for people to think as just "scummy" while not analyzing it's motivation/intent, it's just another "scummy" act and nothing else. Meaning if people were to actually try to analyze it, it's more likely they would analyze it wrong, or at least not in the previous way I mentioned.

However, most if not all townies would analyze Risen's action. For one it was a game-changing one, and it was pretty apparent, it wasn't subtle at all. People would obviously try to analyze it. Another thing, is that the analysis of it would be pretty straight-forward. People would instantly think "If Risen is scum, then he wouldn't have done this if Ottox was town", meaning they would instantly figure out the crux of said "absurd" play.

I guess this is what made Risen's action more viable for a scum to take. No sane scum would take Midnight's option, because of what I said before, he could NEVER gain any reward from using an "absurd" play, because nobody would figure out it's absurd in the first place.
People would instantly figure out Risen's action was absurd (if he was scum), so I guess he had more motivation to do so.

Again I fucked up at not trying to analyze this last thing (that Risen would instantly know people would say "Darn it's impossible he's scum because of it"), so yeah I thought he was town because of it later

I guess Risen just has enormous balls and doesn't care about the risks, and had enough luck it worked. I guess I'll be expecting these things from him in later games.


Anyways, I guess now the point is not only trying to discover these "absurd" plays, but also trying to analyze if they are pretty apparent or not, and if people are likely to interpret it as "absurd" or not.
If the answer is NO to both of them, then it's very likely you are dealing with a townie (or a scum who did it unintentionally, somehow). If the answer to any of them is YES, then it's more difficult to figure it out, so it's better to just not use it to assume he's town and disregard it until more info comes up.

On May 06 2012 12:16 Jitsu wrote:
I don't think anyone was on to Mattchew. People that say they were are blowing smoke around. You define yourself by your actions; but by your words you speak after the game is over. Hindsight is 20/20, and regardless, I think I can specifically recall a set number of people naming scum teams in the Obs QT, and Mattchew wasn't on them at all.

You played a good Mafia game Mattchew. You had me fooled. I thought you were actually town. GJ mang.