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On May 01 2012 07:57 johnnywup wrote: What do you mean use a break? You haven't posted anything except that to take a break from
I'm still reading this for updates every 15 minutes or so. I've cast my vote, and 5 of the 10 remaining people have cast their vote for Ottoxlol. By break, I mean I probably won't come back to check this thread until morning.
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I have no problem with the ghost case, I'm just having a hard time wrapping my head around the idea he's scum.
Otherwise, I can take care of BM tonight. We'll know if he's a goon or not by tomorrow and then we can go from there.
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Ghost is being pretty logical right now. I think I can actually trust him.
What's that spreadsheet you're talking about? May I see it?
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EBWOP: I was going to have this in the last post. Brood, what is this?
Three things to sum up what you said in the post: Sent pointed out a mistake in MG’s post, he made a townlist, and "I'm going to give myself an excuse not to post so I can avoid scumslipping.". Three things to counter what you said in this post: He did this so as to prevent misunderstandings about him bandwagoning, not everyone thinks townlists are bad, and you made an excuse post yourself: + Show Spoiler +On April 22 2012 06:57 ghost_403 wrote: All right, /confrim.
Sorry I've been gone for the last day. The time I can spend in the thread is going to be limited for the next couple of days. After the 25th, I should be back to full steam.
Now to find some scum. Only got 12 pages to go through. Shouldn't be too hard. [/quote]
Also, Brood's case gives me too much credit. I don't even know why we're talking about what I was doing Day 1. In all fairness, though, ghost said some stupid stuff, but so did gonzaw. Remember him? The townie guy who wrote that big-ass case on me and I couldn't defend myself against him? That guy.
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Here is currently how I see this game:
<- even list || adjusted to relative positions ->
Notes about the chart:
So basically I ordered this chart on this: If I was a vig with an infinite number of bullets, I'd start at #9 and shoot my way up until I found my 3 scum.
Otto we're all lynching and I think he's got the closest to 100% chance of being scum. Bill's next on the list as potential and pretty fucking scummy, but he's not quite as confirmed as Otto is. He's still a pretty close second.
Next is 6 and 7. I had a bit of trouble determining this layout. There's only three scums left, and I have a feeling it's BM, Ottoxlol, and one of these two. I would say that I'd have to put Risen as #7, although this is mostly because of the clusterfuck that got Zephirdd lynched. He's rising, and for all intents and purposes we can consider them tied for sixth.
Then comes the line of purgatory and the people who I think are townies. This list is semi-arbitrary and I'm 99.5% sure all five of these guys are towns. However, we all make mistakes, and if by some happenstance two of the 6-9 players have been playing horribad town, which does happen, I've done it to some extent, then this is my order of suspicion.
Paqman I couldn't find anything in his filter and I don't remember anyone making a good case against, this is why I give him #1. Closely following are the other four in the order of amount of fire each one has taken over the course of the game.
Questions / possible rearrangements? Speak up now while I have the file open and we can save some time.
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If BKEXE is by some chance goon and maybe iGrok didn't count my thing or whatever, he dies and town wins.
If BKEXE is not, then I'm right (as I usually am) and we're down either a bad player or (more likely) one scum.
Risen is definitely scum, I don't know where BM fits into this but I'd drop him down to #8 in that chart of mine, especially since he has absolutely no evidence I'm not JK. I claimed JK because even if Otto does get lynched, we need to find the goon.
Also, when marv died he was talking about me possibly being scum. I wouldn't want to be in purgatory. I want to be regarded as townie so that my reasoning is properly counted. So I claimed. And now all is clear.
Now, my dear friend Risen, I have one last question for you.
Are you the servant, or are you the master?
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Oh god... the slaughter...
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BM-Risen-Mystery third member... I'm running out of options here.
8 of us left, 3 scum. 7 minimum left by daylight gives us one last day.
Shit. All my plans banked on Otto being scum.
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Postgame should be interesting. I want to see how accurate my chart was. But we can be happy later. I'll get my homework done and get back to this in a bit.
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I agree with Mattchew as well.
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Ok. Everybody calm the fuck down.
Mattchew is claiming vigilante and unless he's trolling it's a good chance he's one of the two godfathers. Because what does vigilante flip when he dies?
I'm going to vote for Bill Murray because that is who I jailed tonight. Now granted, if I were scum, I'd rather sit and not kill, then Bill Murray gets lynched as townie and you get a free kill, BUT that's a waste of a night. It boils down to this. For the sake of this post, let's assume that mafia has to place a kill and BM is not goon:
If the mafia decides not to kill someone, we lynch Bill Murray, and then tonight they kill another townie. If the mafia does order a kill, they don't know who we're likely to lynch and have to play more conservatively for another night because the obvious candidate, Bill Murray, is not the goon.
However, while the first scenario looks more appealing at first because they kill two townies, I don't think it's a good deal. For example, they could place a kill on me. If they killed me, we could have questions: Did I really jail BM? If BM is not the goon, who is? Neither one of these could be answered because I was away when the night ended, and I am no longer alive.
TL;DR: If BM is not goon, it's a bad tradeoff for the mafia to withhold their kill and make it look like I did it. Therefore, I will assume that BM is in fact the goon, that I have successfully jailed him, and that he will be lynched today.
##Vote: Bill Murray
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On May 03 2012 09:46 Risen wrote: Mattchew is lying.
This. Now:
I had a strong feeling that mafia would hold its kill in order to mislynch (and it pains me to say this) Bill Murray.
Did anyone read my explanation on why this is a bad idea on mafia's part? Anyways, here's something I found interesting
+ Show Spoiler [Shitload of Quotes] +On April 22 2012 14:31 Mattchew wrote: sleep might be back on in like 9 - 12 hours
vote BM
On April 23 2012 01:05 Mattchew wrote: we should lynch BM cause he claimed scum in thread by ninja voting On April 23 2012 02:11 Mattchew wrote: BM ninja voted, Daniel didn't.. he atleast attempted to explain his vote (albeit scummily as fuck) . When someone ninja votes you lynch them. Its basically a red check
My scum picks so far are BM, Risen, Daniel and I would like to lynch/vig them in that order On April 23 2012 06:39 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 06:32 marvellosity wrote:On April 23 2012 06:29 Risen wrote: I haven't even placed my vote on marv yet >.> It is my intention to do so, though. Everyone on VE should be shot/lynched. I'll vote for anyone on him. Only an idiot would vote for VE and we're better off with all of them dead. Sadly this sounds like Risen's town meta. "Anyone who disagrees with me is scum". It's a recurring theme, he did it in LI too. exactly why we should vote for BM On April 23 2012 08:18 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2012 08:18 Mementoss wrote:On April 23 2012 08:15 marvellosity wrote: Gonna ask again, why is giving up a valid town defence? It's not but does disagreeing to directing blues, a day 1 blue claim, and ragequitting, give you enough confidence that he is scum, to go about lynching our possible JK, when there are other scummy suspects? Also BJ, I don't think the marv is gunna happen at this point TBH. The fact that he took his vote off VE, his main competition for getting lynched makes me think he is indeed looking out for the towns interests. (unless you think VE and marv is scum which I doubt) SO LETS VOTE BM Skip a few pages: On April 27 2012 12:05 Mattchew wrote: ottox or BM
those are the 2 I would consider lynching today On April 30 2012 16:23 Mattchew wrote: We lynch BM after we sort out Ottox/risen/brood He is so scummy he makes me pretty sure that 1 of risen/brood is not scum But then here we have this: On May 01 2012 21:35 Mattchew wrote: I have my doubts about BM being the last goon. I think he's scum, but not goon. I think someone that has fallen off the radar more (AHEM Janaan) could be playing a perfect goon in this setup
So I think it's safe to say Mattchew has been consistently pushing for Bill Murray's death.
On May 02 2012 08:28 Mattchew wrote: what if sent is fake claiming and the real blue is just waiting for the right opportunity. I believe sent but idk
On May 02 2012 08:30 Mattchew wrote: meh fuck it.. sent you need to jail BM and we need to lynch Ottox. We are doing all the right things to come back from this travesty of a game
On May 02 2012 10:26 Mattchew wrote: sent should jail BM and we should lynch BM tomorrow
that is all
goodnight
Alright. So back to Matt's vig claim. Why, oh why, does a player that has been wanting desperately to lynch Bill Murray since Day 1 make this post?
TLDR; We are actually in LYLO, I am Vig, Risen and Sent are scum. Bill Murray is confirmed town.
I had a strong feeling that mafia would hold its kill in order to mislynch (and it pains me to say this) Bill Murray.
So apparently you think I'm scum, because I jailed your number one read, following your orders, and that mafia would choose not to seize an excellent opportunity of lynching me or, if you wanted to keep that bullshit going, a good town like Paqman.
Your argument is more invalid than Stephen Hawking.
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I'm not gonna be here for 5 hours, so here's a little gem from gonzaw:
If mafia claim vig, and claim to shoot a target, and then do so with their own KP, this can happen: The Goon claimed vig, and he uses his KP to shoot his claimed target: Then he wastes his other KP. If he was real vig, then there would be an additional KP, but in this case there isn't. In this case he HAS to claim that the target of scum's KP got Jailed, which can bring problems to him depending on the real JKs, for instance if there is no JK he's fucked). In this case, a tracker on him will watch him visit his claimed target Also, in this case (if a tracker tracks him), they can't "shoot" someone, claim their shot failed and say his target was GF, because the tracker will instantly know it's bullshit. The GF claimed vig and he uses the Goon's KP to shoot his claimed target: Same as above, but only the Goon will use his KP. So if a tracker tracks him, he will know he didn't shoot his target and will know he's scum.
I guess this means that maybe the GF's won't fake-claim vig, and the Goons will instead? In that case, if we ever lynch him, he will flip Goon and we will know 100% that he was scum when he's lynched. If he was GF and we lynched him, since he would flip GF we wouldn't be 100% sure he was scum.
So to fake-claim, scum have to choose between: Goon claiming: Pros: Being protected from tracker's results Cons: Not creating confusion if they ever get lynched. Having to rely on JK's to claim their shots
Godfather claiming: Pros: Creating confusion if they ever get lynched, Cons: Relying on JK's to claim their shots. Not being protected from tracker's results.
Cons from both of them: If they don't want to rely on JKs to claim their shots, scum have to fake a claimed shot on a target, and say that his target is GF after there is no kill the next day. This will lead them to a 1v1.
Weird Scenario that they can use: If a Goon claims vig, that night he can use his KP to shoot a GF; then the next day he claims that scum's KP was blocked by a JK AND that his target is GF. Trackers on him will see him shooting the GF, so that may "confirm" him, although it seems too wild (but well, I'm editing this post so I am free to put anything I want, so fuck you )
The point is that they have to choose, they HAVE to do something. We will force them to react to our plans, and hopefully they fuck up their plans/fake-claims and we catch them easily.
Matt is simply claiming vig because for Day 4 and Night 4, nobody ever seriously questioned me sans Risen. They might have had doubts, but in the end everyone just wrote me off as the townie without a doubt. This is problematic. Because if I point out one of their goons (say, BM was a goon), nobody has the sufficient defense to back me up.
Your argument is that I am admitting I was wrong about BM after pushing him all game? Thats it? You didn't know I was the vig, but you did know that I was actively pushing BM, this made him the perfect candidate, cause if you claim to jail BM and no kill occurs, you know that I will push for BM's death as hard as anyone.
Your plan failed because I know you are not Jailkeeper therefore scum held their kill on purpose to mislynch BM and win. BM is being painted red by scum because he was the easiest mislynch target.
My argument is that you just flip to this opinion with your fake vig claim. Before that, you expressed little to no thought that BM was a townie. You wanted to see him gone. People can be wrong, but you seem to not know that. Ghost and I pushed Ottoxlol with all our might but he was town. So why should you get a chance to be wrong if we do not?
And answer me this: If I were scum, what would be my incentive to choose Jailkeeper over Vig like Matt did? I could easily bullshit a case. I could say that Otto was GF and I shot him that night. Then we would have lynched Otto, Otto flips Town, I die tomorrow. The only thing Mattchew's scenario differs from mine is that he claimed during LyLo. There is no tomorrow.
And I didn't need you to push BM for me at all, because BM's filter sings for itself. You could have died Day 1 and BM would still have enough people supporting him to die. You just need to create some confusion to free Bill Murray.
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Here I am.
I'd be ok with lynching Risen. He was on my scumlist, he's been long-suspected, and he's been buddying me for some odd reason (I liked it better when you called bullshit on me bro, but now I got matt for that so meh). Point being, I got nothing to lose. Matt might, but more on that in a second.
If Risen goes down today, I'll jail BM and we'll see. If mafia does not kill again, then BM walks the plank and town wins. If mafia kills again, they were in fact pretending last night, and game over.
Matt, I want to hear your opinion on this. On one hand, you rid yourself of Risen. On the other hand, I'm still around and you don't want that do you? Somehow me agreeing to this you'll use as evidence to paint me as scum?
But definitely go ahead with this if it means town works together for once.
But what really bothers me the most about the whole ordeal is that Mattchew's claim could have been a last-ditch effort to save BM from getting lynched. I want to see Sentinel posting more when he returns.
THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN TRYING TO TELL YOU GUYS ALL DAY
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That actually reminds me, I see a lot of the same things in risen that I saw in zeph. I voted zeph, and look where that got us.
Zeph was also associated with me, and when he died he flipped town.
Point being, I'm going to my old plan. Lynch Bill.
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Wait. I'm an idiot. I didn't vote Zephirdd! I voted Ottoxlol! Point being, BOTH were town.
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On May 04 2012 10:14 PaqMan wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 10:13 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Wait. I'm an idiot. I didn't vote Zephirdd! I voted Ottoxlol! Point being, BOTH were town. And how does that clear Risen of being scum.
What has Risen done that Zephirdd has not?
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On May 04 2012 11:01 PaqMan wrote: @Sentinel why do you believe Risen is town? Why did you retract your opinion right after johnny made his objection to the lynch? If you really are telling the truth, why would you want to vote BM instead of the scum that's counter-claiming you?
I don't like how you make a post and disappear. You've been doing that since Day started and Mattchew counter-claimed.
I don't believe Risen is town, but I don't believe he's scummy enough to get lynched. I'd rather lynch someone like BM who's more likely to be a goon. I'd say Risen if scum is GF at the most. My retraction came because I was reading Zeph's filter and Zeph sounded A LOT like Risen in his final playstile before he was lynched.
Risen is definitely scummy, but he is not the main priority. BM is the main priority.
And I don't believe Mattchew is a goon. I believe he's a vig. It would make more sense, both according to gonzaw's theory and the fact that he gets lynched he flips GF either way.
And I'm actually quite busy these last few days. I have a party to go to 3 hours before today ends, and I won't be back till maybe 3 hours after night begins.
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JK not jailing Day 1 was my fault. Bad town play. I can't put it any other way, and Day 1 was a clusterfuck for me because I was legitimately busy.
And yes by vig I mean GF. Paq, you're a moron, but I'm willing to deal with that.
sent is fake claiming, he can fake claim he jailed another person and then have scum hold kp. also forgot that he can have his goon (which could very well be him) kill and him say he jailed someone other than BM.
Or... I can jail BM.
A no-lynch means there's a 100% chance we'll go into Day 6. It'll be 4-3 if mafia can get their kill off.
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On May 05 2012 00:35 ghost_403 wrote: Johnnywup, stop playing stupid. If we can't get all of our votes onto the right candidate this lynch, mafia are just going to voteswitch at the last moment, mislynch a townie, and end the game. This lynch has to be Sent v Mattchew. Earlier, I was wrong for pushing Risen this lynch (even though I still think he's scum), and you're wrong for pushing me now. Now, start working with the town to make sure we do this lynch right.
If/when we lynch scum tonight, I would be more than happy to discuss lynching me. Right now, we have better things to do.
I'm still trying to figure out which one of them is town. I've found both a town and scum game from Sent, but only town for Mattchew. Can anyone point me to one where he rolled scum?
What will we learn by lynching Mattchew? GF and Vig both flip GF. I want a BM lynch because that will prove whether BM is the goon or not.
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