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On April 14 2012 04:49 Xatalos wrote:
Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case):
- Willz is town
- yomi is Mafia
Here are the possible outcomes:
A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not.
B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow.
But what if I flip town? How does it confirm you and arctic if I am mafia? Mafia trying to distance each other etc.
This is not logical, this is circular. You are saying it is good to lynch me because I am mafia. OK. That's logical. Lynching a mafia is good. But your attempt to do this pseudo cost-benefit analysis is ridiculous as it is predicated on you being right in the first place, therefore it cannot be an argument for you being right!
You are saying if I am mafia and willz is town it is better to lynch me than willz. Is this supposed to be an argument?
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Can't believe it has come to this but I have to protect myself
I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie.
##unvote: dittert
##vote: willz22912
I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro
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maybe not hiropro actually, im gonna reread his filter right now. I never really looked at him too closely
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lol. ok that was comical
I am accused of not contributing enough and having bad arguments. just amazing.
ya I will go on hiropro NP
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On April 14 2012 05:55 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 05:53 yomi wrote:
Can't believe it has come to this but I have to protect myself
I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie.
##unvote: dittert
##vote: willz22912
I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro Why so scared? If you are town, you should post and convince us you are innocent. Instead you try to protect your hide by sacrificing your "most townie read" even BEFORE you are set to be lynched. This makes me even more suspicious of you, which is quite an achievement. I can't see a motivation for town to do this.
Why so scared? I am one vote away from being lynched. I guess only a mafia gets scared when they are one vote away from being lynched.
before I am set to be lynched? what do you mean? you want me to post with 1 second left?
you can't see a motivation for a player to ensure they survive?
this is becoming dittert playing dumb level of ridiculous
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I guess I do have a negative attitude. I flame people online that's definitely true. It is not unique to this game. This is me on tl:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=293561
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=326871¤tpage=7#129
attacking other people being supportive:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328386
Why am I like this online? I'm not sure, I'm very polite in person. I guess it's letting loose.
I don't even know if I should respond to xatalos anymore honestly. He claims I was/am not in any danger but that is so patently dumb I don't know what to say. Xat you are aware that if I hit 5 before willz that I am pretty much dead right? the order of the votes counts bud.....
You want me to act like willz, I am not willz.
I'll try to go through and grab a more concrete read on someone else but I don't want to stretch anything. A lot of people's arguments are HIGHLY speculative IMO and I don't want to be forced into pulling something out of my ass. If I only have a few reads I'm confident in then that's that. I'm not going to grasp at straws just to say I "contributed" when I think there's way too much spam in this thread and now I'm beginning to contribute to it myself.
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Ok. I think you have poor reasoning skills and have never posted an actual "case" per say against me and neither has anyone else. This is your case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=20#395
I find this post comical at best and already debunked it.
I am an abrasive person and now I am dead. I don't know what you guys consider "helpful" but I guess I haven't done it. I think most of the posts in this thread are ridiculous at best and wildly speculative. I won't post anything speculative because I don't think more posting is automatically good and I only want to post things I'm at least somewhat sure of. I think more posting is actually bad and people should try to stay as concise as possible and post a lot less frequently or you guys are going to overwhelm yourselves with spam. I know I already can barely follow the thread. ~20 pages based on no actual information. I find this game bizarre.
I think the following players are suspicious:
xatalos - because his reasoning is frequently ridiculous. too dumb to believe (see dittert)
hiropro - not posting
dittert - can't believe the noob town act anymore.
brood:
this is his "case" against willz
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=18#349
seriously? that passes for an argument now?
I think the following players are town:
willz
honestly not sure of anyone else at this point
well that's everything on my mind. I'm prob dead no matter what. gg.
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On April 14 2012 06:40 vonKlaust wrote:
I'm willing to change my vote to Brood now if we get a concencus. Not only does he once again jump into a bandwagon, he also votes AGAINST what he believe would be good for town.
I guess it goes without saying that I am also willing to switch to brood
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##unvote
##vote: BroodKing
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here comes our hero xatalos
I guess this is super against my interest to post but it seems I'm dead no matter what
Xatalos, your suspicion of me and brood is mutually exclusive as I was the first to finger brood. Remember when I said I find your reasoning bizarre at times? This is one of those times.
also i typed brood's name wrong
##unvote
##vote: BroodKingExe
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me and willz led the charge against brood originally
now it seems the town's top suspicions are:
me
willz
brood
yet us three have attacked each other frequently. congratulations I pretty much hate you guys. please stop and think more clearly about the chain of accusations and what it means about possible combinations of mafia.
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On April 14 2012 07:01 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 06:57 yomi wrote:
here comes our hero xatalos
I guess this is super against my interest to post but it seems I'm dead no matter what
Xatalos, your suspicion of me and brood is mutually exclusive as I was the first to finger brood. Remember when I said I find your reasoning bizarre at times? This is one of those times.
also i typed brood's name wrong
##unvote
##vote: BroodKingExe You only said things like "I don't like Brood" and "Brood's been leading a useless discussion". Fits well into the category of Mafia teammates putting some distance between each other with weak pressure. Certainly nothing to redeem you if BroodKing flips Mafia.
I am about to put you on ignore seriously
brood was not on anyone's radar at all and I kept bringing him up. in my first post and again here
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=9#179
and the next few posts after.
mafia finger each other totally out of nowhere just to put distance right? when neither are in any danger?
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I need to step away from this lol I am getting mad
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well that was shit but it's in the past now
can we get back on dittert or hiropro?
I don't trust xatalos at all. Not that I think he is mafia necessarily. But that, as I hope I've pointed out, the guy's reasoning is ridiculous and back and forth. Just skimmed through his filter again and wow is he all over the place. I think he has fingered half the players in the game? And caused a lot of confusion, at least for me.
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On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote:
I think yomi is Mafia even more strongly after BroodKing's town flip. The way yomi seemed so eager to shift the vote from himself to BroodKing didn't feel right to me if they were both Mafia. However, this makes more sense... He saw an innocent townie making such a hugely suspicious move and immediately jumped on it as his last hope. If he isn't Vigi shot tonight, we will have to use the whole day 2 talking about him, so it's best to get rid off him right now.
Oh boy here we go again. Are we really going to do this all night xatalos. So broodking being town makes you think I'm mafia EVEN MORE strongly. Yet if he had flipped mafia? You would be less suspicious? Once you have your sights on someone you just look to confirm which is a fallacy in reasoning.
What would an innocent townie do? Not go after brood? Yet you are claiming to be an innocent townie and you went after brood. As did many others. We were all wrong. We all switched to him for the same reason. Yet you are so myopic that every possible thing I say or don't say or do or don't do will only confirm that I am mafia.
On April 14 2012 07:01 Xatalos wrote:
You only said things like "I don't like Brood" and "Brood's been leading a useless discussion". Fits well into the category of Mafia teammates putting some distance between each other with weak pressure. Certainly nothing to redeem you if BroodKing flips Mafia.
On April 14 2012 07:08 Xatalos wrote:
I did the same when I was Mafia last game. I kept gumshoe as my top Mafia read while nobody else suspected him. It worked well for me there. chaoser also made his first vote for Acrofales, a Mafia teammate. That argument is just WIFOM, there's no way what you might think of as Mafia.
Apparently he’s the only one that can speculate on mafia motives. Once Xatalos has his target on you, everything is just confirmation.
Whoever's the vigi is going to do what they're going to do. Let's talk about what makes sense. Which is still our old friends dittert and hiropro
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This is why I am raging on xatalos so much. This is who you are letting lead you around:
On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote:
The person I want to lynch the most right now is: ArcticFox.
On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote:
People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson.
On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote:
Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him.
On April 12 2012 18:58 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, I encourage you to vote already. Your hesitation to vote only increases my suspicion of you,
On April 12 2012 23:45 Xatalos wrote:
yomi, Dittert and HiroPro: your contributions so far are non-existent. ArcticFox posted something useful at last, so I'm almost willing to vote for someone else in his place, but you three need to post something before I can get a clear town/Mafia read on you. For the time being, I'm going to keep my vote on ArcticFox, since he's the only one I can make a strong case against at the moment. But you three are next in the line unless you convince me otherwise.
On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote:
Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust.
##Unvote
##Vote: vonKlaust
On April 13 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote:
Acrofales, I looked at Willz's filter and I agree something is off about him.
##Unvote
##Vote: willz22912
I count 9 people fingered out of 13 total players minus himself for 9/12.
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he is causing confusion intentionally which is something a mafia would do is my point
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oh ya he ends up voting for brood so that's 10 and one guy is afk so 10/11
who didn't he suspect?
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On April 14 2012 15:04 Xatalos wrote:
now you say I shouldn't focus on getting one player lynched.
When did I say this? Notice how when I attack you I use quotes but when you attack me you get to stand on your high horse and just proclaim facts down from the mountaintop. Please find the quote for me where I say you shouldn't focus on getting one player lynched.
Is it this?
Once you have your sights on someone you just look to confirm which is a fallacy in reasoning.
What would an innocent townie do? Not go after brood? Yet you are claiming to be an innocent townie and you went after brood. As did many others. We were all wrong. We all switched to him for the same reason. Yet you are so myopic that every possible thing I say or don't say or do or don't do will only confirm that I am mafia.
I think this is very clearly describing an attack on your reasoning style and not a call for you to stop getting people lynched. Maybe a call for you to stop trying to get ME lynched. But you have horribly misrepresented my statements in your post. Please substantiate your post with quotes like I am doing to you.
Also let's contrast these statements:
I accuse xatalos of being all over the place. He responds:
On April 14 2012 15:04 Xatalos wrote:
Why should I keep silent about my suspicions or not push the lynch of my top suspect? You suggesting I should do that seems... suspicious and anti-town, at best.
imallinson agrees with my argument that xatalos is all over the place. He responds:
On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote:
Hmm. Okay, I can agree with the part about throwing so many suspicions so fast being a bit confusing, but what do you mean I haven't backed up my claims with any evidence?
Is this serious?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarecrow_argument
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
He is a dunce or a mafia intentionally confusing people. More and more I believe the latter.
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Good points AF. I also honed in on this:
On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote:
For the love of god, will the vig please shoot yomi or willz tonight so we can get some real info? Thanks.
you mean investigate? you don't kill for info you investigate for info. you kill to clear a suspected mafia. If you think we are mafia that's one thing, direct the vigi to a suspected mafia, good idea. But don't justify it by pointing out the upside that then we will know the person's role after they're dead. What about the downside that the kill could be wrong?
One could use this rational to justify shooting ANYONE.
again, pretending to be noob for too long for it to be believable.
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EPT
