EPTOn April 10 2012 08:29 BlueyD wrote:
Therapist’s behavior = Day 2: Puts his vote on me, seems very willing to let me die. Day 3: Defends me hard.
Blue Therapist option: He DT checked me night 2 and is telling the truth. That is plausible: I was (and still am) suspected scum, so I would be a good pick for that check. Of course if he’s blue, then the red BlueyD option is entirely unthinkable.
Red Therapist, Green BlueyD option: If I’m green and he’s red, the day 3 behavior makes little sense. He would be putting himself at risk by defending me hard, a very strange thing to do if lynching me wins him the game.
Both Red option: Here, it’s his day 2 behavior that makes no sense. There would have been no reason to actively bus me at that point, and it would’ve been an incredibly risky move to plan to switch his D2 vote away from me if I needed some saving at the end. Only reason I still live, remember, is that Gossemerr (of all people) switched his vote.
Therapist’s behavior = Day 2: Puts his vote on me, seems very willing to let me die. Day 3: Defends me hard.
Blue Therapist option: He DT checked me night 2 and is telling the truth. That is plausible: I was (and still am) suspected scum, so I would be a good pick for that check. Of course if he’s blue, then the red BlueyD option is entirely unthinkable.
Red Therapist, Green BlueyD option: If I’m green and he’s red, the day 3 behavior makes little sense. He would be putting himself at risk by defending me hard, a very strange thing to do if lynching me wins him the game.
Both Red option: Here, it’s his day 2 behavior that makes no sense. There would have been no reason to actively bus me at that point, and it would’ve been an incredibly risky move to plan to switch his D2 vote away from me if I needed some saving at the end. Only reason I still live, remember, is that Gossemerr (of all people) switched his vote.
This could easily be explained like this instead:
Red BlueyD, red Therapist option -- I point out a potential connection between you two based on day 1 votes. Day 2 you split your votes to hide mafia ties, and you're not really in any danger of dying since after Gossemer's vote (1.5 hours before the deadline, plenty of time for therapist to switch votes and save you) puts Era into the noose.
WIFOMy? A bit, but completely plausible since I thoroughly expected the mafia to split their Day 2 votes after my voting behavior post.
Bocki’s analysis is suspicious, again. A good part of his post reads like a conspiracy theory, so I’ll concentrate on the rest of his attack, which is essentially one paragraph:
1. Contradictory. Bocki says now is effectively the best time for a blue to claim… But one did claim, and Bocki just dismisses it as “too convenient to be true”! Bocki doesn’t even seriously consider that Therapist may be blue. Why?
2. Why is this dismissed as “too convenient” too? If Bocki agrees that I looked scummy – and he really can’t disagree with that – then he also has to agree that I was a good DT check, no?
3. The whole point of being a cop is scumhunting, so cops check those who are most suspicious for them – often the same people they voted for, if they haven’t been lynched. He’s speculating again where there’s a much simpler explanation.
1) Bocki never said now is the best time for a blue to claim (???). Quote a post if I missed something please.
2) Of course you were a good DT check, but that doesn't help your case one way or the other. It provides Therapist with an explanation for his behavior if he's town, but it provides him with a cool explanation of his behavior if he's mafia too.
3) Again, this is no argument for Therapist being town. It could easily be interpreted either way.
To Nova and Lazin: I thought you two were townies, but if you’re ready to consider the possibility that Therapist is being truthful, you’ll have to also accept the idea that you two might not be on the same side after all.
tldr: I have no way to be 100% sure that Therapist is telling the truth, but I’m leaning towards him being blue because it makes the most sense. Meanwhile, Bocki just dismisses that possibility with no analysis, sticking hard to his ‘convictions’. Which one looks the scummiest? Well…
##Unvote: Therapist
##Vote: Bocki
There’s my answer.
To answer this -- based on the voting from earlier today, I believe switching my vote to Bocki would be a critical mistake for the town. At least one of BlueyD and Bocki is likely town. If both Bluey and Bocki are town, switching my vote is a mistake. If the town is Bocki, it makes no sense to switch my vote.
If the BlueyD is town, Bocki is red, and therapist is town as you'd like me to believe, then who is the other mafia? That leaves either me or nova. You'll have to do MUCH better that making a vague "Maybe you two aren't on the same side" statement. Vague statements like this are pretty scummy. This also fits the way the votes lie right now -- if therapist is scum, then Bocki is innocent, leaving BlueyD as the other scum.
Although Therapist is my best scum read, I am not 100% convinced that I'm right. However, BlueyD or Therapist need to make a specific case against Nova, myself, or both of us if you want to convince somebody to switch their vote, and make sure that it is good. DAMN good. Otherwise, this last statement just looks like a statement to try to pull Nova and I simultaneously to mislynch without any real content.
) Looking back on it, this could have come of to the mafia as paranoia about somebody outing a blue, and may be why he got killed night 1.
