EPTBeen lurking and ready to give it a shot. :-)
C9++ Mini Mafia
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
Been lurking and ready to give it a shot. :-) | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
/in really. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 16 2012 17:07 wherebugsgo wrote: It's balanced based on mafiascum standards. TL standards are different (as was pointed out to me multiple times) and so I can't say that the game is actually balanced with the SK taken into account. This is kinda meta, rather than being a question particularly about this game, but how do TL standards differ from mafiascum standards with regard to balance? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
That being said, you have my sympathies. Frustrating way to go out. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
Her killers must be found. Found and punished. To death! | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
That important message having been said, at the moment I'm with Nemesis and slOosh. Johnnywup's behavior is coming across to me as townie deer in headlights, rather than amphibian-god-napping scum. On the other hand, grilling the newb to get some sort of reaction is very positive townie behavior as well. Hmph. I don't trust my own reads much. I think we'll get the most real solid info out of the voting for day 1, as long as we avoid a no-lynch. So I plan to bandwagon on whomever can get close to enough votes. All your reads are likely to be better than mine, and that way I can hopefully prove my town-itude by being a deciding vote on a scum slaying. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 19 2012 04:37 jcarlsoniv wrote: That being said, Tobon planning to just bandwagon is scummy. We need more posts from him, and also need lurkers to stop lurking. I hate lurkers. I'm looking at you, snarfs, Toad, sandroba. I'd be happy to post more. What more would you like me to talk about? And what I said was that if it came down to it, that I'd rather bandwagon than allow a no-lynch, because I believe a no-lynch to be a big waste of time. You'll notice that I haven't actually voted for or tried to push the case against anyone with lynch votes yet. But yes, if just as the current example, Johnnywup has the most votes but no majority and we're near the end of the day, I'd add my vote to try to get a lynch rather than leaving a no-lynch. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 19 2012 06:37 VisceraEyes wrote: It's a case, and it's in no way a chainsaw defense. A chainsaw defense implies that he was attacking you because you're attacking johnnywup, when it's clear from his posts that he's attacking you because he finds your behavior suspicious. So, VE, you don't think it's a chainsaw defense, but you aren't very clear about what you think of Sloosh's case. Is Xsksc looking scummy in your eyes because of it, then? Or are you just defending Sloosh? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 19 2012 06:51 Toad_in_Pink_Dress wrote: Tha't fine. And what are your thoughts about VE's vote and then unvote for Johnnywup? And which, out of Sloosh and Xsksc do you think makes the better case?We are suspicious of Tobon but wish to see more posts from him before making a judgement that we can agree upon. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 19 2012 07:02 jcarlsoniv wrote: Initially, I thought that VE was pressuring Johnny to gain info, and even though I find Johnny's response a null read (can't tell whether it's newbie town or newbie scum - I can identify with his reaction being a newb myself either way), that seemed good townie behavior. I want to know your thoughts. Who are you finding scummy? What do you think of the current discussion? Even if you don't trust your reads, it doesn't mean that they won't give insight for other people. However, the way in which he has now backed off and unvoted, as well as defending Sloosh against a charge of chainsawing, without a whole lot of _there_ there, and just generally controlling the conversation, makes me wonder if he's pulling the strings here. What if Johnny is newbie scum, and VE is also scum? VE pushes a little too hard, gets some of the rest of us to defend, and never really intends Johnny's lynch at all? He gets a lot of time spent, and if Johnny isn't lynched the town gains nothing, whereas if Johnny is lynched, VE gets a lot of credit for the success of his "random" accusation. It seems like a clever win-win he might have built. That seems like an awful lot of paranoia on my part, though. It's much simpler to just assume that scum is hiding amongst the lurkers rather than the scum actually controlling conversation from the start. In short, I find VE scummiest of the active posters so far, but a lot of my suspicion remains on the lurkers. You're looking to bandwagon on a (hopefully) scum target, and you hope it will improve your towniness. Yup, which is why I haven't voted yet.Also, it's halfway through the day, not almost end of day. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 19 2012 09:21 Probulous wrote: What is with the passive aggressive bullshit? Everything in your filter is just questions and fluff. If you want to help, then find scum. But of course, you don't want to make your alignment clear. You don't want people to actually know, what role you were given because you rolled scum. Here, I'll make my alignment clear: I claim vanilla town. I don't think this will surprise anyone, really, nor do I expect the claim to change anyone's mind. And I wasn't passive aggressive with you, I was (and am) simply dismissive. You really think your case says anything other than that I'm not the best player in the world, which has been obvious since the get-go? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
##vote Jackal58 | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
##vote Jackal58 | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
Jackal is a big lurker so far, and the only one of us who hasn't even suggested someone else might be scum. It was commented that he often lurks day 1, and he said something similar himself, so I don't currently read this as scummy. Mostly null, slightly town. Sandroba also hasn't been involved, beyond his mason reveal. (And random Jackal vote.) Very likely town, obviously. On the other hand, Snarfs, Dirkzor, and Toad_In_Pink_Dress all took the easy potshots at me and Johnnywup as the two of us were dumb, but they haven't contributed so far otherwise. Feels very much like quiet, trying to fit in behavior. Snarfs made a random Nemesis lynch vote but never made a case for it. Dirkzor thought Jcarlson and I were scum together before it was revealed that Jcarl is probably mason, and he hasn't commented since. These are the three lurkers that feel potentially scummy to me, and I'd be willing to lynch today unless they come up with more. I still have a pretty null read on JohnnyWup, but he (and I) are the ones who have had the most widespread support for lynching. Nemesis also has had several people gut feel read him as red. These two I'd also be willing to vote for if it means the difference between a lynch and a no-lynch because they are null to me and potentially achievable vote getters. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
##unvote ##Vote: Snarfs | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 19 2012 14:30 slOosh wrote: Tobon can you explain why a lynch on people who you think are null is better than a no-lynch? Because, frankly, I expect other people who are more experienced to be better at this than I am. And because the mafia get their kill no matter what, so time is a wasting. And so, if I'm not actually _against_ a certain person being lynched, and six of my other townmates have been convinced, I'm going to trust in their collective judgement. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
I have opinions. I have listed 3 people that I feel are scummy, and why, and I've voted for one of them. I'm happy to switch my vote to either of the other two. For instance, Sloosh is getting a similar read as me on T_I_P_D. I'd be happy to vote there instead. If -- and only if -- the people I feel are scummy aren't going to get enough votes, then yes, I'm willing to see you die. Because I just can't tell with you. But if enough others _are_ able to tell, I'll string you up and feel very town patriotic while doing it. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 19 2012 14:51 VisceraEyes wrote: Because your main defense is that you don't have faith in your scumhunting abilities and would rather lynch according to the majority....but your vote is on Snarfs, someone who no one has really mentioned as a lynch candidate to begin with. What happened to voting with the "confirmed townie" Sandroba? Wasn't that your plan for town success earlier? Why the sudden desire to lynch a lurker instead? Because I stepped in it, and you all made it perfectly clear that my "rah rah! go majority!" strategy was a bad one. Which forced me to get off my ass and start scumhunting, as I was asked to do, rather than going with "let's make it through day 1 and see what happens", which was my utter fail of an initial thought process. In general, I'd still be willing to vote with the very likely townie Sandroba, except that in this particular case it doesn't look like there's support for lynching his current choice, and also because I had earlier missed the comments regarding Jackal usually lurking day 1, which has changed my read on him. I'd probably still include Jackal on my "mostly null, willing to vote on if others are" list, it just seems like there aren't others who will be voting that way. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 20 2012 02:25 VisceraEyes wrote: I didn't say last night that Snarfs is "the most suspicious". Last night I felt the 3 were essentially equal and I picked Snarfs to vote for randomly. As you can see if you go read my filter.What has changed between last night when you said Snarfs is "the most suspicious of the semi-lurkers" and now when TIPD is "the most suspicious of the semi-lurkers"? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 20 2012 03:04 Snarfs wrote: Sigh, I'm sorry. I'm tired and am rushing things because deadline is in 4 hours. Another reason I'm suspicious of both johnny and Tobon, one which I alluded to earlier when I said that johnny's claim was off, is because they both claimed "Vanilla Town". I'm a "Vanilla Towny". See that? With a 'y' at the end? Why would they have a different title if they're actually townies? It looks like they were trying to match it up with the posts at the beginning of the thread, when that's not what the title that was sent out says. That's interesting. He's right, the title in my role PM does say "Vanilla Towny" rather than "Town". Is that exact role name public anywhere else? If not, then I may have to reconsider Snarfs.... | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
##Vote: Dirkzor I believe Snarfs is town now. And while I'd rather lynch TIPD, it's getting late in the day to gather support. So my second choice is Dirkzor, who jcarlson is already on, and I imagine given their mason connection, Sandroba may be convinced to vote for as well. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
So I believe Dirkzor is now most likely town. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 20 2012 07:20 Dirkzor wrote: Last scum: Probulous Nemesis Sloosh Or 2 therein if only 3 scum. GG I also believe Dirkzor to be town, because his thought process here mirrors mine. Most likely the scum are non-Jackal voters, and jcarl is "confirmed" mason, and I know I'm town. Which leaves these three. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
I'm concerned that both Probulous and Nemesis are on the vote list here. If we're looking at 2 of the 3 of them being likely scum, that would mean 1 scum bussing slOosh, which seems very unlikely. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 21 2012 08:25 sandroba wrote: Well I don't really think that reasoning is valid, if I was scum in this spot I'd definitely sheep whoever all town is voting in order to avoid further suspicion. It's unlikely they can stop whatever wagon we decide without risking outing themselves a lot. That's not to say sloosh must be scum because of this, but I'm convinced he is our best bet as of now and we will probably end up lynching him at a later date anyway if not now. Since mafia kp is fixed we might as well get this over with. True. With you confirmed town it's going to be impossible to fight your wagon, so the votes today probably don't tell us very much. ## Vote slOosh The other potential advantage to scum from a quick early bandwagon is we waste the rest of the day, though. So how do we keep from doing that? What else is there we ought to be talking about? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
##Vote: slOosh | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 21 2012 11:10 VisceraEyes wrote: Sandroba, of the people ON the Jackal wagon, who do you feel is most likely to be scum? Hope you don't mind if I answer as well. sandroba - obviously town mason. Dirkzor, Snarfs - both pushed by Jackal, both long before they voted for him. likely town. xsksc - we may know a lot more here depending on whether slOosh flips town or scum. (if slOosh is scum, xsksc is likely town, if not, harder to tell). Toad_In_Pink_Dress, VisceraEyes - null. (I mean, they are both assumed town because of the Jackal wagon, but if we're taking a scum-on-Jackal-wagon as a given...) I like TIPD for scummy slightly more than VE because VE has helped drive discussion so much. johnnywup - Newb, sure, but it's interesting how Jackal and most of the rest of our potential scum were the ones who were reading him as new town and slowing down VE's early pressure. To people who know him better, is Jackal the sort of person who'd tell his scum pals at the end of the day "I'm too suspicious because of my Internet troubles, go ahead and let them lynch me"? Because I don't see johnny bussing on his own, if he was scum, but I could see it if he was directed to. (Jackal's internet troubles also fits with the johnny defense that if he's scum his buddies would've told him to shut up long before - if scum was having trouble communicating and weren't hearing from Jackal, johnny could've been nearly on his own...) That's all theory rather than evidence (but the johnny evidence has been pointed out before by others, it all depends on whether you buy it as newbieness or not). But those are my feelings right now. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
I think Probulous and slOosh are both equally probable scum. And I see VE switching targets so that we won't flip slOosh, just as soon as the discussion about how unlikely 2 role blockers are died down a bit. So if slOosh is scum, we lynch scum (yay!), but if slOosh is town, we lynch VE tomorrow. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
On March 23 2012 00:26 slOosh wrote: Caught this with a reread. Makes it more damning that he somehow considers both me and TIPD to be scum. Why would this be damning to Probulous? It's certainly _possible_ that both you and TIPD are scum. What's the supposed inconsistency here? | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
But Probulous never mentioned any of the seemingly scummy bits about TIPD on day 1. He only started pushing TIPD on day 2, after he was already a target himself, and after most of the decent reasons to suspect TIPD were already moot. I think he was trying to gin up a wagon, any wagon, by going back and looking at suspicions of the more newb easily convincible sorts (e.g. me) and trying to play on them. I also find Sloosh's argument convincing about how silly it would be for TIPD and Sloosh to have played things the way they've unfolded if they were both scum. I also think it remains likeliest that we're in the simple scenario where our remaining 2 scum are in the Sloosh/Probulous/Nemesis set of non-Jackal voters. So I find Probulous completely ignoring Nemesis as a potential target to deflect attention from himself suspicious as well. At this point those two (Prob/Nem) look like best scum bets to me. Finally, I can't quite put my finger on the exact analogy, but this really feels like a Monty Hall Problem to me, where a switch is always statistically better, no matter what your original choice. ##Unvote ##Vote: Probulous | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
Next Nemesis. Boom. GG. | ||
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
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Tobon
United States372 Posts
Stick with the obvious move and lynch Nemesis next. :-) | ||
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United States372 Posts
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