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Mr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 26 2012 05:42 GMT
#14
/in

Oooooh yeah
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 27 2012 09:04 GMT
#22
Oh god Jackal! Let us pray he rolls town. It seems we have one almighty vet and a bunch of newbies including a debutant. Should be interesting. Word to the wise, anyone going all emo this game will be lynched. I will treat any threats of quitting as a request to be hung. Play hard, play fair but above all play to win.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-28 00:07:30
February 27 2012 23:32 GMT
#45
Probulous, the apparently missing
Edit: Cause I can

"Probulus Second Coming of Jesus, but his mortal parents died before they could tell him, and God took a century vacation."

This I can live with. Certainly explains my drunken childhood.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 28 2012 00:16 GMT
#50
On February 28 2012 09:11 Paperscraps wrote:
I am brilliant, you all shall sheep me and town will win the game.


I'm Jesus 2.0, your point is invalid.

Reading the kaller game now which is mildly off beat. Wouldn't it be awesome if the inventor could invent Jesus, but no-one believed him because he had no proof he actually was Jesus? The only way the new Jesus could activate his godly powers is if the majority of the thread prayed to him Religious mafia!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 28 2012 00:47 GMT
#55
On February 28 2012 09:23 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2012 18:04 Probulous wrote:
Oh god Jackal! Let us pray he rolls town. It seems we have one almighty vet and a bunch of newbies including a debutant. Should be interesting. Word to the wise, anyone going all emo this game will be lynched. I will treat any threats of quitting as a request to be hung. Play hard, play fair but above all play to win.

Who the fuck are you?


Someone who happens to read old games and knows your godliness when you roll scum. As for the rest of the post the last newbie game was ruined by players threatening to quit when they were labelled as scum. One just left the thread completely. It caused an absolute shitstorm because it put town at MYLO. Thats is why I have put this here.

♥ Palmar. You're too kind when you're not being an asshole
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 28 2012 01:02 GMT
#58
He signed up after the original post.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 28 2012 03:16 GMT
#64
On February 28 2012 11:50 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 28 2012 08:12 Bluelightz wrote:
On February 28 2012 07:15 deconduo wrote:
Mid term break

/in


Holy shit again.


Show nested quote +
On February 28 2012 09:16 Probulous wrote:
On February 28 2012 09:11 Paperscraps wrote:
I am brilliant, you all shall sheep me and town will win the game.


I'm Jesus 2.0, your point is invalid.

Reading the kaller game now which is mildly off beat. Wouldn't it be awesome if the inventor could invent Jesus, but no-one believed him because he had no proof he actually was Jesus? The only way the new Jesus could activate his godly powers is if the majority of the thread prayed to him Religious mafia!


Hey who are you guys?

Show nested quote +
On February 28 2012 09:41 Pandain wrote:
Last edit: 2012-02-28 09:41:30


Burn the witch!

##Vote Pandain



I'm a relative newbie around here. I've played three games and lost all three But I tried damn hard to win in every one and somehow managed to lose.

Mafia History - 0:3
  • Loss - Newbie Mini Mafia II - Detective
  • Loss - Newbie Mini Mafia III (played as Bromancipate) - Mafia Goon
  • Loss - Werewolves Invade Teamliquid II - Mafia Godfather


Aside from these games I am usually active in the Obs QT of most games, especially the newbie ones. Any questions in particular?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 28 2012 21:53 GMT
#76
On February 28 2012 18:46 Palmar wrote:
dude, weren't you on my team in werewolves? didn't we win that game?


Incorrect, I died and my win condition was to be alive. I wasn't technically on either of the mafia teams. I checked it with Ciry to be sure. That was part of why I wanted to get the other teams list for you. Less opportunity for me to get shot. I was just too late. It was a great game and I think I played alright, I just didn't win. This is the one to break the streak, I know it.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 28 2012 22:38 GMT
#81
On February 29 2012 07:35 Adam4167 wrote:
/in

I like random.


*Brofist*

Let us make this a game for the ages.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 29 2012 04:28 GMT
#83
You have my keyboard
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 29 2012 21:53 GMT
#95
On February 29 2012 15:35 Adam4167 wrote:
I've got a bad feeling about this.


Too late, you're stuck here now. Looking at the player list this should be a decent game. I expect great things my Adelaide friend
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
February 29 2012 23:03 GMT
#98
Heads up people, the deadline is at 2pm Aus (syd) time. That means the lynch vote is at 2pm Sat for me. My best friend from Uni is getting married that day, so I won't be here at the vote deadline. I was hoping we would start yesterday but alas it was not to be. My vote will therefore be made earlier in the day. I will be active as I usually am at other times.

I am also trying to avoid my usual text walls. So far I have been failing but hopefully this game I get it right.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:16 GMT
#107
I wonder how Qatol feels about being a ship? All those men riding in his bowels >_>

On to more important things, it feels so good to roll town again. As my first act I want to call out Bluelightz! Every game I have read or played with you I have not been able to tell your alignment. This diverts unecessary attention and time away from useful scum hunting. So shape up and be active. If you lurk this game I will make sure you swing from the yard-arm.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:18 GMT
#109
ROFL, the only one who posts is the one who shouldn't be lurking. Great start!

LAL is a stupid policy and so is discussing it. The whole point of mafia is to make decisions based on the evidence in game. Having premade policy's that by their very nature preclude taking each circumstance on its merits, is stupid. I will not support a LAL policy. I doubt anyone would.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:22 GMT
#111
EBWOP: Oh dear lord I said policy's instead of policies. For shame

As for lynching lurkers, well I think they are good targets for any vigs we may have. Better to force them to post. There are different kinds of lurkers and so instituting a broad policy is stupid as well. Again, it doesn't take into account the specific information about the lurker. Has he posted at all or is he just AFK? I don't like it, there are better ways to deal with them.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:24 GMT
#114
Palmar, Jackal, deconduo and Pandain. You guys are the vets of this game. Any of you guys around?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:29 GMT
#115
On March 01 2012 12:19 Misder wrote:
Awww, so slow...

1). I like lynch all liars. Lynch one lurker on Day 1 if needed- analysis takes care of the rest. I like analysis.

2).


Doesn't the one preclude the other? I mean following any policy requires the suspension of analysis. Besides if you institute a policy such as lynching lurkers day 1 you get no information going into day 2. I mean a lurker by their very nature has no information to give. In addition mafia can just push the lynch onto a town lurker. I am much happier voting for someone who is trying to lurk or is pushing a scummy agenda than someone who is just not here. Hence why I don't like policy lynches.

On a separate note, have you played much mafia here?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:32 GMT
#117
On March 01 2012 12:22 Adam4167 wrote:
I can only take you at your word that you're town, Prob, but if you really are, we're either both getting a win or both getting a loss this game.

Even after the Arkham city debacle, I still hate policy lynches. Ill stick to analysis for my method of finding scum.



I have a streak that needs breaking. I can't lose every game I play. Let's do this *brofist*

Paperscraps where you at brother?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:41 GMT
#120
Thanks for the reminder Adam. For reference

Player List:
1. Jackal58 - USA
2. Paperscraps - USA
3. Bluelightz - Indonesia
4. Probulous - Great Southern Land
5. Snarfs - Kanucksland
6. rgTheSchworz - Romania
7. Misder - Fairy Land AKA who the fucks knows
8. Pandain - USA
9. Palmar - Iceland
10. Sandroba - USA
11. TheToast - USA
12. Adam4167 - Land Down under
13. A Killer Cuppa Tea - Neighbours with Misder
14. deconduo - Ireland

This is what I have for countries based on profiles. Misder and Tea where are you boys based?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:47 GMT
#124
On March 01 2012 12:36 Misder wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2012 12:29 Probulous wrote:
On March 01 2012 12:19 Misder wrote:
Awww, so slow...

1). I like lynch all liars. Lynch one lurker on Day 1 if needed- analysis takes care of the rest. I like analysis.

2).


Doesn't the one preclude the other? I mean following any policy requires the suspension of analysis. Besides if you institute a policy such as lynching lurkers day 1 you get no information going into day 2. I mean a lurker by their very nature has no information to give. In addition mafia can just push the lynch onto a town lurker. I am much happier voting for someone who is trying to lurk or is pushing a scummy agenda than someone who is just not here. Hence why I don't like policy lynches.

On a separate note, have you played much mafia here?

I don't exactly know which policy you are referring to. Lynch all Liars is a good policy lynch (suspension of analysis as you call it). Any "analysis" becomes WIFOM and stupid. Lynch all Lurkers is a pretty bad policy lynch, and as such, the only time I would consider lynching a lurker without analysis would be on day 1.

"Much" is relative (and I'm guessing by your standards, no), but I've been here for at least a year.


Show nested quote +
On March 01 2012 12:29 Adam4167 wrote:
3:30am in Iceland and Ireland right now, probably a bit hopeful that Palmar and deconduo are on. The other two may be around, depending on which US states they're in.

Welcome back Misder, second wiggles game for both of us. If you're town again, do you plan on playing out the whole game this time?


lol. I plan on not getting cocky and then getting depressed so much that I have given up.


I agree "much" was not the right word to use. Though I was not implying that I have any great skill at this game. I just do my best. I just wanted to know whether you had had these discussions before. Often policies look good on the surface and so are supported by new guys. I just wanted to check whether you are a new guy.

As for your main point, I don't like either policy. Liars or lurkers. Like I stated having a policy requires you follow it regardless of the circumstances, otherwise it isn't a policy. If you apply it based evidence other than the fact that the poster lied than it becomes analysis. Policies allow people to vote for a lynch without decent reasoning. They can abdicate their responsibility for logic by just saying "he lied, he must die". I don't like it.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:55 GMT
#126
On March 01 2012 12:45 Pandain wrote:
I was going to go to sleep but I had to say it.

Probulous stop spamming the thread. Your pulling a Pandain and making the whole thread a shitfest of spam. Why does it matter where people are? Why do you say a post to say "hey is anyone here?" If you keep spamming the thread, it creates a bad atmosphere that hurts the town. I'm too tired to explain but just stop posting if it doesn't have a real purpose, and never post if your just bored.
+ Show Spoiler +

On a separate note, have you played much mafia here?


Only contributes to spam. Keep outside conversations outside.





Do you want an answer to your questions or am I supposed to just stop posting? To answer your questions, Adam pointed out that some people are sleeping, hence knowing where people are based is useful to keep this in mind. Second I specifically pointed out that none of the vets are participating because it highlights that they won't be forgotten. I expect substance from you. Besides, it is a harmless one liner that received a response. I don't want anyone to skate by without contributing. As for asking about Misder's history, that is explained in my post above. I am not spamming with no purpose. I have to get people to post and this is how I do it.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 03:59 GMT
#128
On March 01 2012 12:52 Misder wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2012 12:47 Probulous wrote:
On March 01 2012 12:36 Misder wrote:
On March 01 2012 12:29 Probulous wrote:
On March 01 2012 12:19 Misder wrote:
Awww, so slow...

1). I like lynch all liars. Lynch one lurker on Day 1 if needed- analysis takes care of the rest. I like analysis.

2).


Doesn't the one preclude the other? I mean following any policy requires the suspension of analysis. Besides if you institute a policy such as lynching lurkers day 1 you get no information going into day 2. I mean a lurker by their very nature has no information to give. In addition mafia can just push the lynch onto a town lurker. I am much happier voting for someone who is trying to lurk or is pushing a scummy agenda than someone who is just not here. Hence why I don't like policy lynches.

On a separate note, have you played much mafia here?

I don't exactly know which policy you are referring to. Lynch all Liars is a good policy lynch (suspension of analysis as you call it). Any "analysis" becomes WIFOM and stupid. Lynch all Lurkers is a pretty bad policy lynch, and as such, the only time I would consider lynching a lurker without analysis would be on day 1.

"Much" is relative (and I'm guessing by your standards, no), but I've been here for at least a year.


On March 01 2012 12:29 Adam4167 wrote:
3:30am in Iceland and Ireland right now, probably a bit hopeful that Palmar and deconduo are on. The other two may be around, depending on which US states they're in.

Welcome back Misder, second wiggles game for both of us. If you're town again, do you plan on playing out the whole game this time?


lol. I plan on not getting cocky and then getting depressed so much that I have given up.


I agree "much" was not the right word to use. Though I was not implying that I have any great skill at this game. I just do my best. I just wanted to know whether you had had these discussions before. Often policies look good on the surface and so are supported by new guys. I just wanted to check whether you are a new guy.

As for your main point, I don't like either policy. Liars or lurkers. Like I stated having a policy requires you follow it regardless of the circumstances, otherwise it isn't a policy. If you apply it based evidence other than the fact that the poster lied than it becomes analysis. Policies allow people to vote for a lynch without decent reasoning. They can abdicate their responsibility for logic by just saying "he lied, he must die". I don't like it.


And then what. "But maybe he had a reason to lie! He could have been doing <insert WIFOM here> and actually been trying to help town!" Do you think it's going to be net beneficial for town to have to deal with this crap (excuse the language) than for the supposed reason to lie? I don't think so.


No you move on and based your decision on other actions. I agree that lieing hurts town and should be taken into account when pushing a lynch. But having a policy that straight up ignores how that person was playing when they weren't lying is stupid. I mean if a medic lied to stay alive but pushed good reads all game, you would lynch him without considering the rest of his play? You don't have to solve the lie. You are correct in that it leads to WIFOM, I merely use it as a piece of data in a larger case. No need for a policy.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 04:01 GMT
#129
On March 01 2012 12:57 Pandain wrote:
That took a long time to post. Are you hiding something?


I am trying to be clear. Like I said before the game started, I tend to write text walls and I am trying to improve on this. Making sure I am logical and concise helps everyone understand me better. Besides I have already had one stupid spelling/grammar mistake that bugs me.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 04:28 GMT
#138
@Toast, did you read my response?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 04:33 GMT
#140
@Misder

I am not advocating analysing a lie. We all agree that lieing is scummy. That is all I meant by using it as a piece of data. Town should not lie unless they absolutely have to and have damn good reasons for it. If you do, it should be counted as evidence towards you being mafia. That is all, just another brick in the wall so to speak. Your case should stand on its own regardless of the lie. If the liar can't show why they did it and they looked scummy already then yes they should be lynched, but be aware that is not a policy lynch.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 04:51 GMT
#143
On March 01 2012 13:39 TheToast wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2012 13:28 Probulous wrote:
@Toast, did you read my response?


I have now :D

Pandain's point is valid none-the-less. We need to avoid getting sidetracked. That's all I was trying to say.


See this bugs me. It is the same for Pandain. I am trying to get people to post. I am actively pushing the thread along as best I can. What exactly do we have to avoid here? We are not on a track. I agree with Sandroba that policy talk is useless but it was brought up and I responded to those that asked me questions. However both of you guys are saying that I am spamming the thread with useless information. When I respond with my reasoning, neither of you acknowledge it. Pandain then ignores it and suggests that because I took "so long" writing it, I am hiding something.

How do those things go together? Pandain calls me out for posting too much, but I am hiding something? Does anyone else find this strange?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 05:15 GMT
#145
You said you agreed with Pandain, his accusation was that I am spamming. Hence you think I am spamming. What exactly are we getting sidetracked from? The only thing we can analyse is what people post. If people don't post, then we can't analyse. We don't have any defined targets, we have no direction, we have nothing right now.

As for Misder, I don't like policies, he did. We discussed it. We agreed to disagree. Problem? That is the only thing of substance in this thread so far.

Toast, I know you think logically. Do you find this post scummy?
On March 01 2012 12:57 Pandain wrote:
That took a long time to post. Are you hiding something?

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 05:33 GMT
#147
Fair enough. I don't like how he was insinuating that I had something to hide when I responded to his accusation of spamming. He didn't have an issue with my reasoning (apparently) but he did have an issue with how long I took to reply (10 minutes, though I was responding to Misder at the time). You're right it is not enough to call someone scum, but it is worth noting.

Well work is over, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Happy scum hunting!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 11:20 GMT
#154
On March 01 2012 18:55 Palmar wrote:
like seriously, if sandroba or I turn out to be town, you should probably just do whatever we tell you to do.


You roll scum this game Palmar? If you were town, you would know it. You wouldn't "turn out to be town".

@rg. Ok you have felt me. Honestly what is a feeler? Call me when you're serious.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 21:45 GMT
#207
On March 02 2012 01:18 deconduo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2012 01:14 Palmar wrote:
There is nothing wrong with making a list, you guys are insane.


Do you want me to show you how often scum make pointless lists in games? Its the most obvious filler you can make, because it a massive important looking post that adds absolutely nothing to the game.

Show nested quote +
On March 02 2012 01:15 Palmar wrote:
On March 02 2012 01:14 deconduo wrote:
On March 02 2012 01:12 Palmar wrote:
I think that analysis is surprisingly bad deconduo. Why is it so bad? Can you explain that to me?


Dunno I'm going through filters so I might be missing the order in which things were posted. I'm just reading the game for the first time now.


So you agree it's bad?


No, I have no idea why YOU think its bad.


Decon, are you seriously saying that my list was the only thing I contributed to this game? Because that is the only way it could be used to drive an agenda. To make it look like I was contributing while actually posting nothing. Well so far I pointed out Pandain's scummy attempt to undermine me, Palmar's "scumslip" (I don't believe it, just needed a response) and I had the discussion with Misder which convinced you he was scum. How can you cast suspicion on me for hiding?

It should be clear to everyone that the list was made early game to help people be aware of timezones. That is all. How that is scummy I will never know.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 21:54 GMT
#208
On March 01 2012 20:27 Palmar wrote:
Do you think that's a valid question Probulous? Do you honestly think I would scumslip? The obvious (and correct) explanation was that I meant post-death. ie: if I get shot and flip, please re-read what I said and consider that I may have been right.

However, the fact that you jump on it is interesting to me, and why do you do it in such a soft way? Do you actually think that I might be scum because of this? Or are you just looking for an easy opportunity to discredit me?


Here is what you wrote.

On March 01 2012 18:55 Palmar wrote:
like seriously, if sandroba or I turn out to be town, you should probably just do whatever we tell you to do.


Note that you finish the sentence in present tense (bolded). How can you tell us anything after death? If that is what you meant the sentence doesn't make sense. Secondly the reason I asked in a soft manner is exactly because I don't think you would slip so easily. It's not an attempt at discrediting you, it was to get a reaction and a response. I like your follow up though

On March 02 2012 00:12 Palmar wrote:
Sandroba did you roll scum or are you just doing your bored townie impression?


Hypocrisy much? Same tone, same soft manner.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 21:59 GMT
#209
On March 02 2012 03:29 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
EBWOP: also, the majority of his posts had been town-sounding mechanics/theory posts which are incredibly easy for scum to make to help themselves look a lot townier (it's a good strategy!), but very little in the way of actual scumhunting, so they don't have to worry about statements that can come back and haunt them later.

Certain things are always "correct" in a game of mafia. Lurking benefits mafia. No Lynching is bad. Etc... You can't fault a guy for saying something along them lines. But if he Coles out today and says "wow, X is so totally townie"'and X later flips scum, it'll be held against him. By actively posting "correct" mafia theories, it's easy townpoints to be gained.


Tea, in all your posts you have not been able even once to explain how my actions are mafia driven. You entire case is that I have been saying the right things. How does that make me mafia? You my friend have started with a conclusion and then made your argument based on it.

What scumhunting have you done? You sheeped RG's terrible analysis on me and have called me out for providing nothing. See my decon post for my rebuttal to that silly idea. You sir better shape up because right now you are being hypocritical and targeting me with aweful logic, both of those make you scum in my book.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 22:18 GMT
#210
Lest I forget

##vote AKillerCuppaTea
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 23:14 GMT
#213
Whilst I am enjoying Toast being more "taciturn" this game you are correct in that it is a change of style. What he actually says makes sense though. I think he didn't enjoy getting pulled into a back and forth with me about stuff he didn't think was significant. That was my understanding when I dropped it.

Pandain, what do you think about the others that jumped on your suggestion that I was spamming? Specifically RG and AKCT (tea, whatever he wants to be called).
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 01 2012 23:49 GMT
#215
On March 02 2012 08:26 Pandain wrote:
AKCT hasn't done anything scummy. At least not anything that we can pinpoint definitively too. Right now your just clouded by the fact they both accused you, and you probably think anyone who supports you is town to. That's a dangerous, oftentimes wrong assumption to make. The_Toast, to the best of day1 analysis can go, is our best bet for right now.


I agree on RG. If you have courage take a look at Arkham City (Adam rolls his eyes). He claimed everything under the sun and looked scummy as hell but ended up being a regular vet. The fact that he put together an atrocious case on me and called it so makes him pretty much town in my eyes. Weird play but produced some interesting results.

Tea however jumped at the opportunity to call me scum when everyone else who pushed me, never did. RG clearly didn't believe I was scum or he would have pushed much harder but tea sheeps. Then he tries to explain his sheep with the worst possible logic available. He could be townie who doesn't know what is going on, but if that is the case why jump at me? He wants to look like he is contributing when he isn't.

I am fully aware that townies will target other townies. That happens all the time, that is why people's motivations for posting are important. From what I have seen from Tea he wants to look like he is contributing without contributing. Hence my suspicion. The fact that it was me is irrelevant.

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 00:12 GMT
#217
On March 02 2012 08:55 TheToast wrote:
Pandain, right now I still don't think there is enough evidence against you to make a scum call; but it looks to me like you are desperately trying to focus attention off of yourself.


[image loading]
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 00:29 GMT
#220
On March 02 2012 09:18 Pandain wrote:
AKCT isn't actingi scummy. What was his first post? A vote of you with no explanation. Mafia would never ever EVER do that, that's so suspicious. Mafia are usually careful, and reticent in demeanor(part of why I think The_Toast is mafia).
Theres one thing I have suspicions about but as of yet I'm waiting to see what he does about it, and telling him will ruin it. As of now I feel any evidence regarding AKCT is speculative, while more conclusive evidence is elsewhere.


You're making some big assumptions there but that is your perogative. My vote stands until he produces something of worth. I don't see Toast as scum, you neither so I will be looking elsewhere.

My logic is simple really. You insinuated I was spamming/hiding something and but never followed it up. Hence it was a fish. Those that jumped on it are trying to push and discredit me, thus they go on my scummy list until they do something that redeems them.

Adam, you've been pretty quiet this game. Your thoughts on Palmar's response to you would be nice. I'm finding him hard to read.

Finally has anyone noticed a distinct lack of Jackal about? It's almost been 24hrs and nothing. It would suck if he couldn't play.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 00:44 GMT
#223
I have magic powers! I summon a Jackal and here he appears

Seriously though just for clarity's sake, what exactly do you agree with from deconduo? That paperscraps is scum?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 00:54 GMT
#225
On March 02 2012 09:44 Pandain wrote:
Let's get this game rolling and focus on one person for now. If someone lurks in the meantime, they'll only hurt themselves later. By focusing on one, we get to see the reactions of all.

Can you explain why you don't view Toast as scum? You gave a vague reason but I'm sure you have more.


Well for one he has been pretty consistent.
The more fluff, random posts in the thread, the easier it is for scum to hide. Keep it focused.

We need to avoid getting sidetracked. That's all I was trying to say

I wasn't trying to specifically call you out. See the first word in that bolded sentence? "WE" As in ALL of us, together, need to avoid getting side tracked. I'm also unsure how you get me accusing you of "spamming" from me saying we need to avoid getting side tracked.


Then he got indignant when I was needling him. I admit that my reading of his accusation was weak, I was really just seeking clarity around what he meant by "sidetracked" but he got flustered. To me this reads like someone trying to avoid a stupid argument.
I wasn't trying to say you were spamming, I don't know why you are being so defensive about this. Pandain made a point about avoiding outside conversation in the thread, I agreed with that point. I wasn't trying to accuse you of anything. So no, I don't have a problem with it.

Given that was what he was trying to do from the start, it looks townie. Finally his response to your case is clear frustation. He isn't scared or submissive but rather frustrated that he can't seem to establish his innocence. It would have been much easier for him to target someone else but instead he attempts to clarify his position. His point about you quoting me looks like sarcasm.

All in all it doesn't read as scum to me.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 01:57 GMT
#235
On March 02 2012 10:46 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2012 08:49 Probulous wrote:
Tea however jumped at the opportunity to call me scum when everyone else who pushed me, never did. RG clearly didn't believe I was scum or he would have pushed much harder but tea sheeps. Then he tries to explain his sheep with the worst possible logic available. He could be townie who doesn't know what is going on, but if that is the case why jump at me? He wants to look like he is contributing when he isn't.


Excuse me? thats bullshit. I saw something scummy and pointed it out, My reasoning is sound, and your misrepresentation of me does you no favours.


OK maybe you can explain this then, your first post (klicky) doesn'st actually state why you voted for me. I assume it is because of the list. Your point about policy has nothing to do with what you quoted hence my assumption. If you didn't like my policy discussions, as Adam pointed out why me? You even agree with my stance on policy.

On March 02 2012 03:23 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
Also, I'm voting Probulous because of a hunch that basically arose from "we should lynch all lurkers" and then proceeding to spam it up. Looks like it could potentially be scum diverting attention from himself, like

...

EBWOP: also, the majority of his posts had been town-sounding mechanics/theory posts which are incredibly easy for scum to make to help themselves look a lot townier (it's a good strategy!), but very little in the way of actual scumhunting, so they don't have to worry about statements that can come back and haunt them later.

Certain things are always "correct" in a game of mafia. Lurking benefits mafia. No Lynching is bad. Etc... You can't fault a guy for saying something along them lines. But if he Coles out today and says "wow, X is so totally townie"'and X later flips scum, it'll be held against him. By actively posting "correct" mafia theories, it's easy townpoints to be gained.


I opposed LAL so I never said we should lynch lurkers. Your accusation is based on me spamming which I explained earlier, you just ignored that. So far nothing you have written has any substance. Then you say that I am pretending to be town by saying townie things. How that makes sense I have no idea. The only thing you have done this game is actively discredit me with no substance behind it.

I mean what was your actual reason for voting for me?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 02:27 GMT
#237
On March 02 2012 11:26 A Killer Cuppa Tea wrote:
My reason for voting you was a high concentration of Mechanics post coupled with very few Scumhunting posts (at the time). I made that clear in my 2nd post when i realised that it might not have been obvious to everyone that that was what i was getting at (was pretty damned hungover at the time of making that first post). I've explained that its not so much the mechanics/policy posts that are the scummy part, its them at the absence (or infrequency) of anything else. Since then you've started scumhunting proper, which pretty much negates my reason for voting you, and a couple of other things have convinced me of your towniness. Successful probing, imo.

Incidentally, i'd like to stress again that its not your policy that i had a problem with. It was the discussion of policy with a lack of anything else. Its another reason why i dont like discussions on policy alone - too easy for scum to hide there.


Would you vote for misder then?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 02:33 GMT
#239
ROFL

"People are talking about how lurking is bad. Probulous spams it up, potentially as a result of this anti-lurker sentiment".

That's some serious mental gymnastics. Especially since we have played together before and I posted a lot then too. Anyway, from your response I think you just didn't think through your vote clearly.

##unvote
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 03:33 GMT
#243
"His reason for voting for me was because he disagreed that LaL should be a policy. I don't know why his reads are the opposites of my reads (namely, Paperscraps and Probulous)."

People really are not being clear in this game. Misder, please can you clarify your reason for voting for decon? My understanding is that his reads are bad and his reason for voting for you was your position on LAL. Is that correct?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 10:59 GMT
#250
Jackal given you said this in Mafia L

On January 16 2012 23:39 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 16 2012 18:46 wherebugsgo wrote:
anyway, for the world outside of Scamp, I have some pressing questions I want answered while I'm asleep:
Jackal58: I agreed with everything you said day 1, which is either really good or really bad. What are your thoughts right now? Who's scum?

Sandroba. When he disappears he's scum. He has disappeared.


Would you shoot Sandroba if you had a gun this game. I agree with Palmar that he has been hiding which is scummy as hell. His case on Pandain is insubstantial and he isn't here. I have never played with him but since Jackal has a history of recognising Sandroba's scum, I think your opinion here would be useful.

LOL at Palmar basically calling me an SK.

"I'm not quite sure about probulous, something is off about his play I think, but I can't exactly tell if it's because he's scum. "

If my play is off (implying I am not town) and I am not scum, I must be an SK right? Sorry to disappoint you but this game I rolled regular townie. I will try and improve my play so it isn't so "off". It's time for bed here (early start tomorrow). I will check in, in the morning and vote before I head off to the wedding. Sorry I can't be at the deadline but there are some things more important than mafia (shock horror).
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 20:51 GMT
#273
On March 02 2012 19:59 Probulous wrote:
Jackal given you said this in Mafia L

Show nested quote +
On January 16 2012 23:39 Jackal58 wrote:
On January 16 2012 18:46 wherebugsgo wrote:
anyway, for the world outside of Scamp, I have some pressing questions I want answered while I'm asleep:
Jackal58: I agreed with everything you said day 1, which is either really good or really bad. What are your thoughts right now? Who's scum?

Sandroba. When he disappears he's scum. He has disappeared.


Would you shoot Sandroba if you had a gun this game.


Jackal, maybe you missed this. Please can you respond.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 20:53 GMT
#274
On March 02 2012 12:33 Probulous wrote:
"His reason for voting for me was because he disagreed that LaL should be a policy. I don't know why his reads are the opposites of my reads (namely, Paperscraps and Probulous)."

People really are not being clear in this game. Misder, please can you clarify your reason for voting for decon? My understanding is that his reads are bad and his reason for voting for you was your position on LAL. Is that correct?


Misder, please respond to my question.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 21:04 GMT
#275
Right now my reads correlate best with Palmar. I don't think Paperscraps is scum. He always writes very short posts with not much content, he correctly identified me as town early and I agree that decon's case was terrible. Sure Misder had engaged in a fluffy discussion regarding LAL (with me) but if that is all the case was based on then bluelightz should have been a bigger target. He was asking everyone for their opinions and sharing none. I agree that his absence since then and his terrible reason for voting decon (as far as I can tell) makes look really scummy but when Paperscraps replied the case was very weak.

Jackal is making himself hard to read. As above I disagree with paper but agree with Misder. He's lurking but that seems to be his usual day 1 play. Pandain seems towny to me. His case on toast helped clarify toast's alignment to me. Adam needs to post something of substance. His only game as scum (that I remember) he lurked all game long.

Sandroba, you're not helping yourself. The quote from Jackal in L corresponds very well to your current play. This is why I want Jackal's opinion. He shot you then, would he shoot you now? Toast is right to call you out for lack of contribution. Your response enforces his case.

##vote Sandroba
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 21:16 GMT
#278
On March 03 2012 06:07 Pandain wrote:
He was consistent because he had to explain himself. All the posts were related to you calling him out(unjustly). And just because he's consistent doesn't mean he's not scum. I look at all those posts in a different perspective.

The apologetic mood(refer to Ver's analysis of Misder in "How to Improve", the strong reaction to being accused, and the lack of any contribution to town(all he's done is defend himself) is very suspicious to me.

I feel the suspicions against Misder are weak. The real suspicious thing hes done is his latest post, where he just posted a list with no substance, but people seem to focus on his earlier posts, which took place at the very beginning of the game. I don't think there's a better case on Misder then there is Toast.


Toast has since changed his position. He has correctly pointed out Sandroba's lurking and has been the most forceful in defending me. Now he could be scum, but if he keeps playing like this I don't mind keeping him around. I think you are focused on his early play. His play since then has been better than most.

Misder however when called out responded with a terrible list of towny people and voted decon for reasons that still don't make sense to me. He then disappeared. The attitude is completely different. One of them has clearly tried to better the other hasn't.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 02 2012 21:30 GMT
#280
On March 03 2012 06:20 Pandain wrote:
Stop saying stuff like "correctly"... "correctly..."
How do you know what is correct? "They have correctly identified me as town", mafia do that all the time. In fact one of the best ways to gain town cred as mafia is to say "yeah this guy is innocent" when he's getting lynched.

And his latest play is suspicious. The harsh reaction to Sandroba's bad vote reasoning, as well as to my quote of the above material, hes playing like he's mafia.

Misder's made one crappy post and now people are lynching him. And personally, there is more reason for the mafia to try to get better than for a bored townie.


He could be town or he could be mafia. Right now he is doing things I agree with. Why would I lynch him? You are right in that I could be wrong but so could you. I think Sandroba is scum, he is pushing Sandroba. Either he is bussing his team-mate (unlikely day 1 but could be true) or he is town with a correct read. From what I read he is making an effort to improve. You are right in that scum can do that as well, but if they do they become clearer to read. They make their views more apparent and ultimately become easier to catch.

Toast may be scum but I will not be voting for him today unless something drastic happens in the next few hours.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 03 2012 02:11 GMT
#315
Adam I am not sheeping Palmar. You hadn't produced anything of note until recently. Sandrona is actively lurking and seemingly has no interest in this game. When he is town he has shown skill in putting together decent cases. He isn't even bothering to try this game. He played like this L where he was scum. Add those together and you get mafia.

My vote stands. I am heading to the wedding now. The cases against Paper and Decon are terrible. Misder is a maybe. Toast looks town to me. Palmar has some interesting points and his reads aligned with mine, I won't be voting for him today.

From phone.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 03 2012 11:42 GMT
#329
On March 03 2012 15:36 Adam4167 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2012 13:46 Jackal58 wrote:
You have got to be shitting me. 3 votes? Really? 3 fucking votes? And nobody has posted since the fucking flip?
You have got to be fucking shitting me.


Oh, give me a break.

If you are are so unimpressed with the current state of the game, why don't you try contributing something instead of lurking and trolling.


That is the towniest thing you've done all game

Jackal if you were so adamant that paper was scum your two line case that he OMGUSing is not enough. Push harder next time. Paper did more than Misder who turned up town. I still think sandroba is scum. Drunk or not. The case against Misder was weak but he did place a crappy vote and then disappear. You don't shoot everyone who voted for him. Sarcasm or not that is a stupid comment to make because real vigs might take you seriously.

RG stop playing the idiot. No-one believes the 1001 things you have claimed. Going to bed now. Thoughts in the morning.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 03 2012 22:25 GMT
#341
On March 01 2012 12:16 Probulous wrote: As my first act I want to call out Bluelightz! Every game I have read or played with you I have not been able to tell your alignment. This diverts unecessary attention and time away from useful scum hunting. So shape up and be active. If you lurk this game I will make sure you swing from the yard-arm.


I know it is odd to quote yourself out of nowhere but I feel this has been neglected.

@Bluelightz, what the shit?

I asked you in my very first post to not lurk. You started the game by spamming stupid policy questions and asking everyone under the sun for their opinions. Then you disappeared. The only thing of yours that is more than two lines is your ridiculous reads page. Let's take a look.

On March 03 2012 09:56 Bluelightz wrote:
Jackal58 - Leaning Scum - He post's nothing of worth and is useless.
rgTheSchworz - Leaning Third Party Maybe - This post is interesting because IF he is the SK he is trying to make people thinking he's not the SK



Right now, I believe rgTS has the largest chance of being scum so I am voting him.

##Vote: rgTheSchworz


I'll ignore the fact that you voted for Paperscraps because he made a useless list for now What the fuck is this? You have been told numerous times not to post town/null lists. At least this time you label someone red. But your reason is so majorly hypocritical and stupid it hurts my brain. Jackal, from what I have read always lurks day 1. But the real kicker is that you then decide not to vote for him? Instead you vote for the person you called third party and then in the same post they changed to scum?

You also left your vote there when it was clear he was never going to get lynched. That is an easy way to avoid responsibility.

I charged you this game with making your alignment clear. Especially by not lurking. You have chosen not to do this. In addition you are voting and pushing people with stupid reasoning. If you don't provide something useful before the end of today, I will be happy pushing for your lynch. You know that people have let you off previously for lurking. That is why I called you out, if you continue to do it I can only assume you are doing it on purpose and so must die.

Before someone says he can't be scum because they wouldn't let him post like this, he has done this before and gotten off with that excuse. I wouldn't put it past them to use that against us.

Sorry about the wall, told you it was hard to avoid
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 03 2012 22:49 GMT
#342
Final Vote Count:

Misder - 3
deconduo
A Killer Cuppa Tea
Jackal58

Sandroba - 3
Palmar
Probulous
Snarfs

TheToast - 3
Pandain
Sandroba
TheToast

Palmar - 2
Paperscraps
Adam4167

deconduo - 1
Misder
Paperscraps

Pandain - 1
Sandroba
rgTheSchworz
TheToast

rgTheSchworz - 1
Bluelightz

Probulous - 0
rgTheSchworz

A Killer Cuppa Tea - 0
Probulous

Paperscraps - 0
Bluelightz
Snarfs

inb4 posting useless lists

These people need to explain their votes

TheToast
You deliberately chose to vote for someone who was not going to be lynched. Your vote was at 11:50 and you voted for Pandain who had two votes at the time. It was obvious that only Sandroba or Misder were possible candidates because everyone had already placed their votes. Yours was last. You effectively chose Misder over Sandroba without saying so.
Explain.

Paperscraps
I can't find your vote on Palmar. What the hell happened with your vote, the only thing I see in your filter is a vote for decon. Am I missing something?

Adam
You were at a wedding yesterday so I expected you to be absent like myself (I tried to be around). But you posted at 1:30 before deadline when most votes had already been placed. So you had the information available to make a choice for a candidate who had the possibility of being lynched. You voted for Palmar when it was clear he was not a possible candidate. I can't find Paperscraps' vote so right now you effectively voted on your own. Nice way to avoid taking responsibility for a lynch. Explain.

Bluelightz
As explained in my previous post about you. What the fuck dude?

These four had votes for people who clearly had little to no chance of being lynched. Now doubt you are all scum but I am sure that at least one of you is. What easier way to avoid taking responsibility for your vote then by placing it on someone who will not be lynched. I've done that as scum successfully in the past.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 22:13 GMT
#376
I leave the thread for a while and this happens!

Nice ploy Pandain, I agree AKCT gets town for his response.

This I find strange
On March 04 2012 12:28 Adam4167 wrote:
Cant say i'm surprised with that.

I was very surprised.

Rg basically claimed Vanilla Townie or possibly Veteran. Here is something I wrote and was keeping for when his claims became useful.

Claims to be able to half sandrobas chance of surviving night -> Vig/SK
On March 01 2012 16:28 rgTheSchworz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 01 2012 13:02 sandroba wrote:
I'm kinda bore with Lynch all Liars/Lurkers talk. This game we shall try something new: Lynch whoever I tell you to lynch and win. It works wonders.


Your chances of surviving another night are now halved,sir.
...
Ive randomed a purely awesome role this game.


Repeat of above -> Vig/SK
On March 01 2012 21:06 rgTheSchworz wrote:
Yeah, and Mr Hydra, I rolled something awesome this game, so I can make Sandro and others pay for their cockiness.


Claims not to be SK -> Vig
On March 02 2012 03:48 rgTheSchworz wrote:
it s probable that we dont have an SK.
...
So, Mr SK, we lynch u after all scum have gone,ok?

Therefore is either a Vig or a Veteran trying to get shot in a really stupid way (again).

The he says
On March 03 2012 19:33 rgTheSchworz wrote:
Who said I m a vig?
I didnt roll scum, FYI.

So just from reading his filter his claims don't make sense. Strange hit for me. I guess I was wrong about his attempts to get shot being stupid but that just says mafia aren't reading filters properly.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 22:21 GMT
#377
On March 04 2012 09:05 Adam4167 wrote:
I didn't support either of the 'main' lynches yesterday and considering the votes ended up being split 3-3 in favour of your two main candidates, neither did most other people.
I was not avoiding responsibility by not voting for Misder, go read my filter, I didn't think he was scum. Lazy, yes. scum, no. I also didn't vote for sandroba on similar reasons, I think he is being lazy or just plain doesn't give a shit, which is not indicative of his alignment to me.
So I was presented with the 'choice' of voting for two people, neither of which I find overly scummy. So I decided to provoke Palmar, partly because I feel his play is different to what I expect from town Palmar, partly to gain a better read on him in case I am wrong and he is town.
The result is I still don't know what his alignment is. I asked him to produce more content (in the form of a case on me), but he refused as he was hell-bent on only focusing on sandroba yesterday, so I don't know what to make of him.


Fair enough. You had explained your reasons for not voting these two. Misder's was a little difficult to find but it is in there.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 22:25 GMT
#378
On March 04 2012 10:41 Bluelightz wrote:
Alright, at the time I didnt believe either Sandroba or Misder was scum.

At the time I already said I wouldnt be there for the deadline so I couldnt change it.\

I voted rgTS like I said, he had the highest chance of flipping scum to me.


What above the rest of my post? Don't you go lurking again or I will push for your lynch. You have provided nothing this game and I still can't read you. Read some filters, find me a useful quote, do something and I will get off your back.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 22:44 GMT
#380
On March 04 2012 14:15 Adam4167 wrote:
Since you've claimed blue already, can you tell me if you Tracked AKCT or if you Watched rgTheSchworz? I assume its the latter, but id like to know for sure.


What use does that answer provide to town? The only possible thing I can think of is that he didn't believe Pandain and was using this as a way of getting him to possibly slip up. Pandain had announced his suspicion of AKCT so it makes sense for him to follow him. I don't see why watching RG would necessarily be more likely. As I previously stated it was obvious that RG claims were bogus from a simple read of his filter.

Even if you disregard the above, why ask? I read guilty concience here. Mafia shot RG and wanted to find out if they had been caught. If Pandain claims he tracked AKCT, no harm done. If he claims he watched RG they can counterclaim because they know they were the one's who were shot RG. Thus Pandain was either lying or he knows they are scum. They know that he knows. Thus the only possible way out is to counterclaim as soon as possible with more information.

It is a scummy scummy question.

##vote Adam4167
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 22:54 GMT
#381
On March 05 2012 05:46 sandroba wrote:
I got hit last night btw.


This adds more evidence for a SK. Unless there is a really trigger happy Vig. I doubt our vigs (if we have any) would shoot night 1. Mafia shooting (they could have a vig) you makes little to no sense, you were the highest (tied) voted for person on day 1, you were always going to be under suspicion today. I'm not sure what else to draw from this.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 23:44 GMT
#385
On March 05 2012 08:30 Adam4167 wrote:
This is just spam, Probulous. I was not surprised at all that he flipped townie, nor was I surprised that he was lying all game. You didn't even believe all of his claims, you said as much here:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2012 20:42 Probulous wrote:
RG stop playing the idiot. No-one believes the 1001 things you have claimed. Going to bed now. Thoughts in the morning.


Well I gues that is a misunderstanding of what you were surprised at, I read it as you were not surprised he was shot.

Your post doesn't even make sense, you start by stating that he claimed Vanilla Townie or possibly Veteran, then somehow finish that he's possibly a Vig or Veteran. What was the point of even posting that wall of text? It contributes nothing.


There was no way he was going to be a vig, he even stated so in the last thing I quoted. His claims made no sense so to me it is surprising he was shot. I read your post as not finding this surprising.

The answer to that question provides nothing to town. It provides information to me. I ask because I wanted to know what Pandain was claiming to get a better grasp on if he was fake-claiming.


How? I don't see how you could know Pandain was fakeclaiming unless you knew shot RG. You also seem to be claiming you are not town but I'll take that as a heat of the moment thing.

"As I previously stated it was obvious that RG claims were bogus from a simple read of his filter", No, you didn't. You finished with the conclusion that he was a Veteran or a Vig.

It is not a scummy question. Why aren't you calling me scum? You're implying it, but you aren't saying it.


My vote makes it clear I think you are scum. If it makes you feel better, here how about this.

Adam4167 is scum.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 23:50 GMT
#386
On March 05 2012 08:37 Paperscraps wrote:
Probulous this makes no sense. It is reasonable to wonder what role Pandain might have been. A watcher on rg the first night makes complete sense, since rg was soft claiming vig, whether you believed him or not.

No I gather you are wondering that if maybe mafia hit and roleblocked rg, then Adam's question would show some concern. We have know way of knowing that. Also Adam has been towntelling recently. I don't think he is scum.


Why would you ask that question? The answer provides nothing to town. So Pandain watched him, what difference does it make? That information is useless to everyone except mafia. The useful information was that AKCT visited RG. I don't know if you just don't understand what I was explaining or whether you just don't believe it. If you need clarification of my point, just ask.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 04 2012 23:58 GMT
#388
I'll try and make my case simple to understand because what I wrote obviously isn't clear.

If Adam is mafia
If Adam is mafia he knows that AKCT didn't shoot RG. When Pandain claims that AKCT visited RG he knows that either Pandain was tracking AKCT or he was watching RG. If Pandain was watching RG then he knows that Pandain is lying. He also knows that Pandain knows who shot RG. Thus the best play is to counterclaim. Now, there is no point claiming until you know that Pandain was watching RG. Hence the question. It solidifies the best play for mafia.

If Adam is town
Pandain says AKCT visited RG who died over night. Therefore AKCT is likely to be the shooter. Pandain has already made his suspicion of AKCT clear thus there is no reason to believe he was more likely to watch RG over tracking ACKT. If Pandain had claimed tracker, does that make his claim invalid? The answer to the question provides nothing useful.

I hope this is clear to people.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 00:58 GMT
#390
I noted Toast's crazy voting earlier. I am waiting for his explanation before I vote for him. The fact that he has been away for so long and that he said he was having ISP issues makes me think his absence is not just avoidance.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 02:08 GMT
#396
25 I think
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 02:13 GMT
#398
♥ Mattchew on the ball
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 04:47 GMT
#404
On March 05 2012 13:23 Adam4167 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2012 08:37 Paperscraps wrote:
Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit.

Theres an option 3 here. Sandroba is an SK that is claiming a real hit (from the mafia):
Show nested quote +
On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Serial Killer: You are a Serial Killer! Each night, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit. In addition, you have one extra night life.


I thought of this but this quote makes me less certain.
On March 03 2012 17:12 sandroba wrote:
Wait for me to kill bitches b4 you shoot me thx


If he was SK he wouldn't be worried about getting shot. We haven't had a vig claim the shot so it could only have come from mafia which makes zero sense. Why target someone who was the leading vote getter the day before? No I think he was a saved by a medic. I agree with Paperscraps that a town medic saving Sandroba is just not credible. So we are left with veteran or mafia medic. He was under pressure and was worried about dying so a mafia medic protect makes sense. His way of claiming the shot doesn't ring Vet to me. Vets normally celebrate when they are shot.

Finally you can credit Pandain with redeeming you. His explanation of your question made me read your filter again and aside from that question, the rest could be town. Hence

##unvote

Bluelightz, I repeat my earlier warning, provide something useful or I will push for your lynch.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 04:51 GMT
#405
On March 05 2012 13:47 Bluelightz wrote:
No, I don't feel guilty, I was just saying that if I get mislynched blaime will be on Pandain.


Ok that's it

##vote Bluelightz

You are around enough to post but not enough to provide content. Not a single little tiny little morsel of usefullness. I outlined in my previous post what you had to do and that was yesterday. Since then all you have done is provide excuses. You have been here all day, you have posted regularly but you haven't even bothered to point out anything about anyone. Today you swing.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 05:04 GMT
#406
On March 05 2012 13:47 Probulous wrote:
I thought of this but this quote makes me less certain.
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2012 17:12 sandroba wrote:
Wait for me to kill bitches b4 you shoot me thx


If he was SK he wouldn't be worried about getting shot. We haven't had a vig claim the shot so it could only have come from mafia which makes zero sense. Why target someone who was the leading vote getter the day before? No I think he was a saved by a medic. I agree with Paperscraps that a town medic saving Sandroba is just not credible. So we are left with veteran or mafia medic. He was under pressure and was worried about dying so a mafia medic protect makes sense. His way of claiming the shot doesn't ring Vet to me. Vets normally celebrate when they are shot.


I am not making a habit of quoting myself I just realised I completely missed one possibility. The one that Paperscraps was saying

Sandroba could be an SK claiming a fake shot. I don't know that an SK would give up the possibility to shoot for the credit that comes with claiming the hit. Especially that he didn't staight up claim veteran. I still think it more likely that he got hit and saved by a medic. I just can't tell whether it was a town or mafia medic.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 05:07 GMT
#408
On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Possible Mafia Roles:
Medic: You are a Medic! Each night you may choose to protect one player from a night hit! You may not protect yourself. You will be notified if you successfully protect your target.


Read the OP.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 07:07 GMT
#409
Palmar, Decon, Jackal, Snarfs, Toast, sandroba all disappeared. Come on guys we can't play this by ourselves.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 21:42 GMT
#432
On March 06 2012 01:14 TheToast wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 04 2012 07:49 Probulous wrote:
TheToast
You deliberately chose to vote for someone who was not going to be lynched. Your vote was at 11:50 and you voted for Pandain who had two votes at the time. It was obvious that only Sandroba or Misder were possible candidates because everyone had already placed their votes. Yours was last. You effectively chose Misder over Sandroba without saying so.
Explain.


How do you know that he wasn't going to be lynched? 10 minutes is more than enough time for two people to change their votes; I've seen it happen before. I wasn't the only one with my vote on Pandain, RG did as well; I think (and still think) there was more than enough reason to vote him for lynch. I also posted my analysis of Pandain, it's not like I just dropped a vote and left. I would have done it sooner but I had IRL stuff that was in the way. Fact is I didn't have a good read on Misder and I was at the time pretty sure Sandro was the SK. I think Pandain was the better day 1 lynch.


This is not an explanation. Like you said there was 10 minutes left. So you drop a vote on someone who was neither first or second on the list. When you made that vote you were effectively choosing Misder. If there was only 10 minutes left, why did you leave it there? You say "it's not like I just dropped a vote and left" but either you did leave the thread immediately, or you chose to keep your vote on someone who was clearly not getting lynched. The fact that you say "I was at the time pretty sure Sandro was the SK" and he was second in votes yet you didn't vote for him is damning in my eyes.

Updated scum list
Sandroba
TheToast
Bluelightz
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 22:07 GMT
#434
I try and make this brief

  1. You didn't think Misder was scum
  2. You thought sandroba was SK
  3. Both had the same number of votes but Misder reached there first.
  4. You voted Pandain.
  5. Misder gets lynched.

You were around when the lynch went down, you could see that no-one was switching. Pushing for a Pandain lynch is fine but you cannot deny that you chose not to lynch the SK. Now you say that the SK would be working for town. That's a big assumption. How do you know he shoots straight?

More importantly you chose to let someone you didn't think was scum die just so you could vote for Pandain.

Either you did drop your vote and leave in which case you have lied to us, OR you watched Misder get lynched (someone you thought was town) and chose to keep the SK alive.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 22:43 GMT
#437
It's simple Toast, you had choice to keep your vote on Pandain and watch a townie die, or put your vote on Sandroba and watch a SK die. I have pushed the others who voted on different targets and most (beside Blue) have given decent reasoning. Whilst the people who voted Misder could be scum they could also be town who believed they were voting for mafia.

Now you say that the SK would shoot mafia. That much is obvious. I go back to my previous point. He doesn't know who mafia are (he could shoot town) and we have to kill him before the end of the game. Obviously it is better to lynch mafia over the SK, but it is better to lynch the SK over town.

You can't dodge your responsibility here. As far as I can tell from the posts around that time the only two people posting were you and Snarfs. Snarfs voted for Sandroba which tied the votes and then you voted for Pandain. You never even addressed Snarfs. You posted 10 minutes before the deadline and then sat back and watched nothing change.

As for proving you're town, a defense that I might have accepted would have been that you misread the voting rules and thought a no-lynch was going to happen. Or even if you could point to somewhere in your filter where you say that both Misder and Sandroba are town (that's what Adam did). Instead you say you think Sandroba is the SK but you didn't nail him to the wall. Instead you watched Misder swing and you could have done something about it.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 23:12 GMT
#442
On March 06 2012 07:43 Pandain wrote:
There's no reason to vote sandroba, he's not scum(no resistance at all)so that leaves either sk or town. Rather than vote him, we should merely track him. This will effectively negate any chance of him shooting again. I do believe he's sk but feel this is A better alternative as it encompasses all the reasons we would want to lynch sk without the risk of lynching town. We should use today instead as an opportunity to lynch scum.


I don't know why you say there is no resistance to him being lynched. Toast is screaming blue murder that you are scum. If my team is correct then blue is soft-bussing which is unsurprising. The way I see it these are the possible explanations for Sandroba "hit"

Fake Claim
  • He is trying to gain cred by faking a claimed hit.
  • Serial Killer / Mafia - Helps him avoid suspicion Day 2
  • Town - Clears his name to some extent


The implications of this are that there may not be a SK. The problem with the fake claim is that the benefit for him is minimal. The way he claimed makes him look less like a veteran than someone who got medic saved and no town medic would save him. I believe he was shot.

Real Claim
  • He survived a hit and claimed it
  • Serial Killer - Knows someone has hit him and wants to flush that person out.
  • Mafia - Knows that someone has hit him and will claim the hit if they are a vigilante. The vig gets town cred and he looks bad for not claiming the hit so he does it first. The claim also might flush out the shooter. The SK could act like a vig too so either way he had to claim.
  • Veteran - He has been shot and can excuse his crappy play as an attempt to get shot.

The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much?

A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 23:13 GMT
#443
##vote sandroba
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 23:20 GMT
#446
On March 06 2012 08:01 TheToast wrote:
Probulous, by your logic vig's should all be lynched day 1 too. Because that's exactly what the SK is, an extra town vig. I've given my reasons for what I did and honestly, you aren't the mayor here so I don't have to defend myself to you anymore that I have already. Pandain is scum. I wanted to lynch him. That's all there was to it.


A vig that shoots repeatedly and wins when town dies is not the same as a normal vig. You can't deny that the existence of a SK is a danger to town. It means there is more KP around that needs town to die to win. Like I said, it makes sense for an SK to go after mafia but ultimately he has to go after town as well. So as town we lynch Mafia>SK>Town.

Show nested quote +

As for proving you're town, a defense that I might have accepted would have been that you misread the voting rules and thought a no-lynch was going to happen. Or even if you could point to somewhere in your filter where you say that both Misder and Sandroba are town (that's what Adam did).


What is this? Fine, next time I'll lie to you and tell you what you want to hear. lol Also Sandroba is not town, that much is pretty obvious.

No you don't lie. All I was saying is that there non-summy reasons for doing what you did, but they aren't the reasons you had. Your actions could have come from town but your reasoning confirms you as scum. Anyway I am voting for sandroba today as his lynch gives me more information than yours and is more likely to succeed. But you will be on my lynch list tomorrow.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 23:28 GMT
#447
On March 06 2012 08:19 Pandain wrote:
And toast is negligient, he merely is focused on me because I've been focused on him. He's been on me since day 1, and he hasn't supported Sandroba.
There is effectively no support for Sandroba. But again, this only indicates he's not scum, as they wouldn't just let him(and he wouldn't be so lethargic about getting lynched), die when theres a valid excuse.

But I'm not even denying that Sandroba is probably scum. The key fact is that by lynching him we effectively waste a day to either confirm what we already assumed(he's SK), or the fact that he's a vet(in which case we just lynched a town woopdie doo). If we make him unable to shoot for fear of getting caught, then we don't even have to worry about him harming town.


You reasoning rests of two assumptions
  • He is the SK
  • Mafia would defend him if he was scum

The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself).
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 23:32 GMT
#448
Jackal, so far you have been as useful as tits on a bull.

You survived night 1 which was your reason for lurking day 1. Well it is day 2 and we have nothing from you. What is your reason today? If this keeps up I will have to assume you don't care about town winning and so must be scum. You're good at this game gives us something.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 05 2012 23:40 GMT
#451
On March 06 2012 08:37 Pandain wrote:
2. Mafia KP is hidden, so the SK might not actually exist.


This will hopefully get clarified by the sandroba lynch. If he flips SK then obviously there was one. If he is veteran then we can assume he was shot and so there are two KP meaning there is a SK. If he is mafia, who cares? If he is town then my mind is full of fuck.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 00:41 GMT
#461
On March 05 2012 18:25 deconduo wrote:Why would he be worried about getting shot if he knew he had a medic to save him? In fact, I think SK is far far more likely as they would have the most to lose by getting shot; losing their night life. A mafia with a medic to back them up is basically immune to night hits, so shouldn't be worried at all.


On March 06 2012 07:52 deconduo wrote:
I agree that he isn't scum, but he's almost certainly SK. We're better off lynching him now, rather than letting him get another shot off.


Paper, decon doesn't read as scum to me. Your case was that he was pushing bad cases. Well when it was clear they weren't happening (me) he dropped it. That could be scum or town. Misder disappeared and never responded to anything so it would be monumentally stupid of decon to remove his vote without something to explain it. I mean if Misder could get off by just not saying anything then we would never lynch mafia. He followed through with his case and was wrong. At least he was clear on his intention to lynch Misder.

Compare that with Toast's actions. He chose to not to vote for his "SK" and let a townie swing. His actions are far more scummy than decon. Sandroba has been actively useless (is there such a thing?). He is around and posts enough to avoid the modkill but doesn't bother to add anything of use.

Is there anything more to your case than his bad reads?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 01:56 GMT
#465
On March 04 2012 09:05 Adam4167 wrote:
I also didn't vote for sandroba on similar reasons, I think he is being lazy or just plain doesn't give a shit, which is not indicative of his alignment to me.So I was presented with the 'choice' of voting for two people, neither of which I find overly scummy. So I decided to provoke Palmar, partly because I feel his play is different to what I expect from town Palmar, partly to gain a better read on him in case I am wrong and he is town.

On March 05 2012 08:30 Adam4167 wrote:
Don't forget attack Palmar, I've done plenty of that as well. How does any of that make me scum and only scum? You are assuming Sandroba's guilt from his lack of effort (something BOTH of you were doing) and then inferring my guilt from that.


From this I read suspicion of Palmar for his case against sandroba. Therefore in terms of likelihood of being mafia
Palmar > sandroba.

On March 05 2012 13:23 Adam4167 wrote:
Bluelightz, why are you giving up so easily after one vote? Compared to your play in Normal Mini Mafia I, where you had 4 votes piled on you the first day and you tried to defend yourself.Do you feel guilty again, like in Student Mafia?


Suspicion of Bluelightz, therefore likelihood of mafia
Bluelightz > sandroba.

On March 06 2012 08:55 Adam4167 wrote:
Its far too late in the day to start pushing another case. Id like to see a resolution to this night-hit situation.
##Vote sandroba


What happened?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 02:01 GMT
#467
On March 03 2012 10:27 Palmar wrote:
you Adam4167
also, if I'm scum you lynch me, vet or not it's bad logic to let vets get away with shit.

On March 04 2012 03:14 Palmar wrote:Deconduo, you decided to use an easy fucking bullshit explanation to vote a townie, even after I told you that it was bullshit, and I later explained that I thought he was town. I take that as an insult. You're literally calling me bad at mafia by straight up refusing to listen to me.I will make sure you die this game.

Palmar do you still think a scum team of sandroba, Adam and decon makes sense? Your input would be appreciated. As with Jackal you're good when you're town so I value your thoughts.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 02:10 GMT
#469
@Everyone

What would be a reasonably balanced number of scum if there was a Serial Killer. I know this is setup speculation and so cannot be relied upon but I have no idea how these setups are usually balanced. I have been basing on reads on the assumption of three mafia, is this reasonable?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 02:11 GMT
#470
EBWOP: *my reads

What a fail
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 02:18 GMT
#471
Once the lynch is done can we please get a final vote count that includes the ordering of the votes? eg Toast is labelled as the first voter for sandroba which is not correct. I can do this if it is not part of the hosts' responsibility. Thanks
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 02:46 GMT
#474
On March 06 2012 11:38 Adam4167 wrote:
I'm posting from my phone so I can't quote stuff.

Prob, I already stated why I'm on the sandroba lynch in that post. It's too late in the day for me to push the cases I want to push, so I'm bandwagon voting on sandroba to try and get a better grasp on what happened last night. I like other lynches better but convincing at least 4 people to move off of sandroba is something that would take more time then we had when I voted.

It's a shit vote and I know it, but my vote going anywhere else is just as shit, considering the current vote tally.


Well this is completely illogical. Your last sentence implies that sandroba is getting lynched regardless of your vote. The rest of your post suggests you want a conclusion to the night hit. Well combining those would suggest that you will get that conclusion regardless of how you vote.

In this situation it would make sense to stick with your reads. If people switch to your reads then great, if not you get clarification on the hit. Either way it looks like you don't believe he is scum, so why vote for him? You're taking the easy way out and I don't like it. Town Adam doesn't do things the easy way.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 02:57 GMT
#476
Waiting for a typical TL last minute vote switch that leads to a medic outing themselves and a no-lynch. This game has been pretty boring. Half the time I end up talking to myself.

Paper I am still waiting on your response to my question about decon.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 02:59 GMT
#477
ROFL that timing again. Always gets me.

f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 03:01 GMT
#480
*dancing in the street*

ooooh yeah!!!!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 03:34 GMT
#489
Final Scummy Votes

Sandroba - 8
3) bluelightz

Deconduo - 1
1) Paperscraps


Bluelightz
On March 06 2012 00:12 Bluelightz wrote:
Alright, I'm voting sandroba, I believe his scum because he is useless and has not provided good content, his hit claim is interesting though.
##Vote: sandroba

He needs to be splattered across the pavement, preferably across many pavements.

Paperscraps
On March 06 2012 09:22 Paperscraps wrote:
Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet, but logic dictates that Sandroba is mafia/SK. This bandwagon on Sandroba went up pretty darn fast. But, alas Sandroba hasn't taken his vote off of AKCT and not putting up a fight at all. This lynch on Sandroba doesn't feel right. I feel if I change my vote though, people will think that scummy. Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here. Going to change my vote anyways. Back to my "tunnel" on Deconduo, who has been coasting.
##Unvote
##Vote: Deconduo
Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet.


A single person getting shot simply implies there is no SK. It's almost like he knows there is another kill point and that is what is causing the confusion. In other words sandroba did get shot and his claim was real. I believe this to be true as referenced by my earlier posts. Sandroba's claim was not one of celebration that a vet or fake claim would be. He didn't want to claim the shot but he had to. He flipped red which means that if sandroba was shot he was saved by a mafia medic.

The rest of this post is a clear attempt to distance himself from sandroba. His decision to vote for decon isn't that he thinks decon is scum but rather that sandroba "feels" like a vet. I've asked him to clarify his reason for voting for decon because all I read is "bad reads" which clearly Paper also has. I would not be upset if I saw him missing a head.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 06:01 GMT
#491
Urrgh this thread is dead. I'm going to laugh if I die overnight cause this thread will turn into a ghost town. Come on guys post your thoughts, move this thread along. There is plenty to analyse but no-one is here. I'm heading home now and might log on later.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 06:52 GMT
#496
*High five*

You could have boiled that down but it is a decent case. I laughed when I jumped back on here and you had posted this massive case and Adam has posted "what do you want to talk about?" There is a reason you look town and he doesn't. I am interested in Paper's response, especially an explanation for his voting.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 21:46 GMT
#514
On March 06 2012 20:58 Paperscraps wrote:
1. Decon's read on Misder was wrong. Probulous he called you scum as well. Was he wrong in that?
2. Decon says making lists are pointless, claiming they are filler. I disagree
3. Decon's reaction to me calling him scum was bad. He over reacted. I find this scummy.
4. Decon's reaction to Misder flipping scum was bad. He wasn't remorseful about it.
5. Decon also rages at Sandroba for being useless this game, saying a vig should shoot Sandroba. There is merit here for both town and mafia play.
6. Decon has been coasting the past two days. Posting filler, no scum hunting, not very town.
7. Decon votes up Sandroba, calling him "almost certainly SK". There is merit here for both town and mafia play once again.


I don't think you thought your case through very well. You have seven points all of which could come from a town or mafia agenda. What is with the bolded bit?

As for this
On March 06 2012 21:04 Paperscraps wrote:
Also on side note: Since Sandroba flipped mafia. What does everyone think of the hit claim?
1. The hit claim was fake.
2. The hit was real and mafia/town medic saved Sandroba?


I've explained my reasoning why I think the shot was real. Why would a mafia sandroba claim veteran with such a weak claim? If he wanted to get credit for it he would have celebrated the shot, make it clear to everyone he was targeted. Instead he responds to something else and then casually mentions the fact. It makes sense that he was shot given his reaction to it. This means scum have a medic and we have a SK. Vig would have claimed by now.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 21:58 GMT
#515
On March 06 2012 15:55 Adam4167 wrote:
I don't push cases at night time, unless its so close to the deadline that mafia cant shoot me for it.

On March 06 2012 21:21 Adam4167 wrote:
There's really no way to know which it is until morning. Even then, there's situations where it could be ambiguous.

Why you such a downer this game Adam? I don't think I have ever seen someone get shot for posting at night. All you are doing is refusing to contribute behind a weak excuse. The sandoba shot is the one thing we have right now that can help provide some useful information. Of course the conclusions have to be tentative but we can still work it out based on his posting. I think my logic is clear and fairly robust. Besides if there was one thing you could comment on that would surely not get you shot it would be the dead guy. You're avoiding posting, why?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 22:17 GMT
#517
On March 06 2012 19:01 Bluelightz wrote:
Nice flip ^^! Was at school for most of the day so couldnt post much. We should take a look at the people who wanted to derail the lynch.

In my ideal world there are two possible things happening to you
  1. You actually provide this analysis and it is useful
  2. You make a handsome throw rug
I'm clearing the floor to make room cause I think hell will freeze before I get useful information from you.

I love how you completely ignore this post
On March 06 2012 12:34 Probulous wrote:
Final Scummy Votes

Sandroba - 8
3) bluelightz
Bluelightz
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 00:12 Bluelightz wrote:
Alright, I'm voting sandroba, I believe his scum because he is useless and has not provided good content, his hit claim is interesting though.
##Vote: sandroba

He needs to be splattered across the pavement, preferably across many pavements.

You still haven't explained responded to my original case/s (1, 2) You are lurking and need to die.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 22:23 GMT
#519
EBWOP: explained

I think I need a coffee. BRB
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 06 2012 22:42 GMT
#521
On March 07 2012 07:32 Paperscraps wrote: The bolded part is a question to you? Was Decon wrong in calling you scum?

Now that right there is a stupid question I have made it clear all game long that I am just your regular townie, which given my game history is a refreshing change. Decon being wrong does not make him scum.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 00:17 GMT
#532
ROFL Snarfs on the ball

Palmar needs a hug but it is a long way to go for me. Can I send a hug through the internet or is that just weaksauce?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 00:19 GMT
#533
I voted 2.

I like even numbers and being the only even prime, 2 has to get my vote.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 00:25 GMT
#535
That's a big post, what's it say?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 00:31 GMT
#538
I see you have a full grasp of the quoting function. Whilst this is a useful skill to have it would be more beneficial if you made a point. If this continues you will be guilty of spamming which is highly ironic given your first post.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 00:48 GMT
#540
Ok I guess that was hypocritical, my bad. I still fail to see your point. Bluelightz always lurks he can't help it. Maybe it is an addiction or some kind of phobia but I have yet to see a game where he contributes. The difference here is that he has specific things to respond to that he is ignoring.

Palmar on the other hand can go from one liners to decent cases. He doesn't have a set style. As for your favourite quote of his

Should we just not believe any claims? I agree with his logic that there was no reason not to believe you. AKCT was suspicious and you made it clear you thought so before you claimed. It is far more likely that you were telling the truth than you were lying in an attempt to trap him. Turns out we were wrong but that doesn't make the logic bad.

Again, if you have a point, make it because right now you are just being annoying.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 00:54 GMT
#542
See that is why you need to make your point clear. Didn't seem funny to me and I have a fucked up sense of humour. Whilst I have, I assume you still think Bluelightz is scum? Anyone else?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 02:30 GMT
#545
Prob to Bluelightz: Come out come out where-ever you are. I knowed you around cause I seed you posting elsewhere.

Bluelightz to Prob: ...

Prob to Bluelightz: *swings mighty hammer of the gods squishing him into sticky bloo goo*

Prob
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 02:46 GMT
#547
On March 07 2012 11:30 Probulous wrote:
Prob to Bluelightz: Come out come out where-ever you are. I knowed you around cause I seed you posting elsewhere.

Bluelightz to Prob: ...

Prob to Bluelightz: *swings mighty hammer of the gods squishing him into sticky bloo goo*

Prob


Before anyone claims this is me implying Bluelightz is blue and I want to kill him, I would point out that his name is Bluelightz. Don't derp people, it's bad for your health. I am serious though, he posted in the Kaller game and has decided to avoid this thread. If he turns out to be town this game, than I will vote for him on Day 1 whenever we meet again. This shit is crazy.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 02:49 GMT
#548
On March 07 2012 11:45 Mattchew wrote:
Im in the car ffor an hour if wiggles isn't around I'll make post then don't go crazy


Pfft where is the commitment? I can't believe you haven't built yourself a hands-free voice recognition based dictation plugin for your car radio combined with a mobile wifi satellite to ensure we have our night post on time. It's just not good enough.

Yes I have no idea about technology stuff...
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 03:08 GMT
#553
Well we're fucked

Bluelightz I am coming for you. You don't get by with your lurking and such nonsense anymore.

##vote Bluelightz

Adam, now that night is over and you are safe in your cosy little house, where is this analysis you were so scared of showing? You never even posted before the deadline which means your excuse of not wanting to die is just that, an excuse.

On a separate note, Vig anyone? If there is no claim we can be pretty sure there is a serial killer (2 KP). I can see a Vig shooting Jackal (maybe) but not Palmar. He was pretty clearly town after he pushed sandroba so early. Combined with the Sandroba claim I think we can be pretty sure there is a SK.

Is there anyone else here?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 03:12 GMT
#555
On March 07 2012 12:02 Paperscraps wrote:
I shot Jackal58.


Why? I mean I know he was lurking and stuff but to shoot him on Night 2 is adventurous to say the least. Why didn't you claim your shot before the deadline?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 03:24 GMT
#557
Yeah I don't like that. You were on the scummy list of a few people and so were unlikely to be shot overnight. There are plenty of others who you could have pushed to lynch today and saved your shot for tonight when you have more information. I wouldn't put it past you as scum to claim your shot as a vigilante shot and try to coast on that. I'll wait and see what others have to say because I was pretty convinced we have a SK. It lines up with sandroba's claim and just makes mores sense to me than you being a vig who shot Jackal. I'll keep an open mind for the moment.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 03:42 GMT
#559
Knowing Palmar's role now from his posts I see the following

Option 1 - Night 1 he watched someone and got nothing.
His first reaction after the night is to say to Decon "I will make sure you die this game." But then he straight up votes for AKCT after Pandain's claim and goes on to vote for Sandroba. Now given RG was shot by mafia (I think we all agree on that at least) if he watched RG, then he would have no reason to believe Pandain's claim unless AKCT was the shooter. If ACKT was the shooter then he wouldn't have changed his vote. So I don't think he watched RG night 1. He also didn't push anyone really hard except sandroba.

Option 2 - He watched sandroba and saw no hit
Now if we assume he was watching sandroba his insistence on lynching sandroba would make sense if he knew that sandroba was lying. But then again he didn't push for sandroba's lynch very hard. This in particular
yeah I'm still fine with killing sandroba.
Pandain is dumb, but he's probably town. Doesn't say anything about AKCT's alignment really. But hey who cares.
##Vote Sandroba
doesn't read like someone convinced 100% of sandroba's guilt. Especially not a Palmar. So I don't think he watched sandroba. If he did he would either have seen who shot him (real claim) or he would have pushed for the sandroba lynch harder (fake claim).

Maybe I am WIFOMing myself but I think this is useful information. Anyone else have any ideas about this.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 03:56 GMT
#561
On March 07 2012 12:48 Pandain wrote:
this seems set up. Claim immediately after, because you like "suprises?" When your already under suspicion? Yeah, no.


That was my thinking too. If you want to claim a shot as vig especially if you are under suspicion you do it just before the deadline. That way there is no doubt about your shot. 2 minutes after the deadline is just too late. That being said if this was a gambit by mafia they would know who they were going to shoot and so could claim in the same manner. Unfortunately this tells us nothing about his alignment.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 04:18 GMT
#563
I think Adam4167 and Paperscraps are both on the mafia team. Both of them defended sandroba in one way or another. They have hardly communicated in thread and neither have given an opinion on the other. When I called Adam for his scummy question this is what Paper wrote

No I gather you are wondering that if maybe mafia hit and roleblocked rg, then Adam's question would show some concern. We have know way of knowing that. Also Adam has been towntelling recently. I don't think he is scum.
But he never gives us any indication of why Adam is town. What is towntelling about his behaviour? He completely dismisses my point without actually explaining why. It took Pandain to do that.

Then his scummy claim of the Jackal shot rings false to me. He never outlines a case on Jackal other than he was lurking. Jackal lurks a lot and he could have saved his shot for at least another night. It is way too risky a kill for a Vig who was never going to get shot. It doesn't make sense from a town Paperscraps point of view. There are other lurkers including Bluelightz who look far worse but he chooses to shoot the veteran? From scum point of view Jackal is liability to keep around better to shoot him and claim the shot. This way Paper might be believed as a Vig and Jackal dies. In addition attention is drawn away from the Jackal kill itself.

As for Adam he is trying really hard not to contribute but seem like he is. The only case he has put together has been on Palmar. What is also interesting but somewhat prone to WIFOM is that he targeted Palmar who is now dead. Jackal targeted him and is also now dead. This ties in with Paper taking credit for the shot. It draws attention away from Adam. He was not surprised that RG flipped green (implying he didn't believe his claims) but he wasn't surprised that he was shot. This is contradictory because if you don't believe his claims you would not expect him to be shot. He has never mentioned Paperscraps despite the abundance of people who have. Their only direct communication was about sandroba being a SK.

All of this is despite their terrible voting. Adam's wishy-washy switch to sandroba at the last minute which flatly contradicts his reasoning for voting for Palmar. Paperscraps vote on decon and then using this as a reason to vote for sandroba
If you aren't even going to try, then you are going to get lynched.
Which is the very next post after
Deconduo, TheToast, and Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet, due to the hit claim. Sandroba is on ice though and needs to start contributing as do a lot of other players.

It's way too convenient. Sandroba had made it clear that he was actively not contributing. Why the sudden change? I'll tell you because it became clear they couldn't save him.

I would be happy to vote for either of these two.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 04:19 GMT
#564
On March 07 2012 13:01 Snarfs wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 12:34 Pandain wrote:
#vote Paperscraps

Awful quick vote there against a guy who's claiming blue. We have 2 days to figure out if he's lying or not, we should use it.


Snarfs you have been logical this game. Who do you think is the best lynch out of Adam, Paperscraps and Bluelightz. Right now they are the one's I would consider lynching.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 04:59 GMT
#566
I hope you are not serious cause this is like WTF fail.

On March 07 2012 13:43 Adam4167 wrote:
I've been acting like a dick to you because I thought you were scum the second you sheep voted onto sandroba with the reasoning of "my reads look a lot like Palmars, so ill vote like he does".


Let me clarify that for you (linky) Here are the important bits from that quote
On March 03 2012 06:04 Probulous wrote:
Right now my reads correlate best with Palmar....Sandroba, you're not helping yourself. The quote from Jackal in L corresponds very well to your current play. This is why I want Jackal's opinion. He shot you then, would he shoot you now? Toast is right to call you out for lack of contribution. Your response enforces his case.
##vote Sandroba


It is pretty clear that I just said my reads correlate. I then go on to explain that sandroba's play is very similar to his play in Mafia L where he was scum. I even asked Jackal to comment because I (wrongly it turns out) thought he had shot sandroba. The point being I clearly thought he was scum. Compare this to your vote reason

On March 06 2012 08:55 Adam4167 wrote:
Its far too late in the day to start pushing another case. Id like to see a resolution to this night-hit situation.
##Vote sandroba

This after defending him all day long. You don't even say he is scum.

You've sidetracked this game into setup discussion which boils down to an answer no townie can know on more than one occasion. You asked Pandain for his reads on who he thought was scum, he named Bluelightz, Jackal and myself. This is a glaring contradiction to his stance towards me yesterday. He was actively defending me and pushing the lynch in any other direction. Yet you don't even bat an eye-lid at his complete 180.


He has been town to me since very early game. His interactions with Toast up front made him townie to me. Then his gambit which confirmed AKCT could be mafia but from my reading seems to be town. Besides he is actively contributing. He is here and discussing stuff with me. You are never here. Besides if you are so sure he is scum, why the vote on me? Either you think he is town (like me) or your point is bullshit.

You have not built a case here. Nothing you have quoted or pointed out comes from only a mafia's agenda. You say you have been contributing a lot. Well point me to a case besides Palmar where you label someone as scum for a reason? I can't see anything in your filter except for some defense with Jackal and me.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 05:01 GMT
#567
EBWOP: OK reread you say you actively are not contributing. Point? If anything this just proves my point, you are useless and town Adam is not useless. You refuse to post information when we ask and you have done nothing all game. This does not make sense from a town perspective, especially if you have been targeted by others. You don't seem to want to even try and provide something of use.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 05:26 GMT
#569
For my other town members out there please take a good look at this. This is what happens when mafia get caught with their pants down. They know I am on the right track, they know that I have some level of legitimacy in this town and they know the only possible way to silence me is to get me lynched and the bury my thoughts in the subsequent recrimination.

If Adam really thought I was mafia since Day 2, why would he vote for sandroba with such a terrible reason? He asked me about my "sheeping" of Palmar and I explained it. He apparently dropped it but was not satisfied by my response. What townie does that? If you don't like the response someone gives you, you push hard until you get a satisfactory one or there is no hope of resolution. Otherwise the question is just not important. But suddenly now, after I put together my case on Paper and Adam that innocuous question which I thought I had dealt with is the mother of all scum tells that proves I am mafia?

Look at everything I have done this game. I have pushed people on their vote records, I have tried to fathom what breadcrumbs I could from Palmar's demise, I have kept the thread going when no-one else was. I have pushed and prodded many of you to try and find the truth.

Adam, well Adam as he admits has done nothing. He has an aweful reason for voting for sandroba that flatly contradicts his reason for voting for Palmar. His reasoning for voting for someone who was never going to get lynched was he didn't think that Misder or sandroba was scum. Ok fair enough, but why on Day 2 do you suddenly change to sandroba with the reason of why the hell not? Especially if you think I am scum?

##vote Adam4167

Two reds in a row, this town is on a role.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 05:45 GMT
#571
On March 07 2012 14:23 Adam4167 wrote:
Continued:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743081 Here, you state that people who are lurking shouldn't be lynched, rather we should find some other way to deal with them. Yet here you are now, your vote is on Bluelightz for lurking.

Did you even read my cases against Bluelightz? I said as my first act in this game I would make sure he doesn't lurk. I have pushed him all game to provide something. What else am I supposed to do to make his alignment clear to us. I mean I can't very well post for him, the best I can do is place my vote and pressure him. It didn't work yesterday so my vote moved. No harm in trying again, but here you are undermining my efforts in this department.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13743280 Lists aren't scummy. USELESS lists are. Here's one.

I don't even know what to say here. One list of timezones and suddenly I am not contributing. *Shock horror* Please pull the other one.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13753596 AKCT's logic for voting you is HORRIBLE, yet you unvote him and never come back to it? Come on.
It doesn't matter if his logic is horrible, what matters is whether I think he is town or scum. His defense whilst all over the place still seemed townie to me. Now after Pandain's gambit it seems he is townie, so hoorah I was correct. How this is a mark against me I have no idea?

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=13787923 This was completely irrelevant. It contributed nothing to the discussion at hand, proved nothing, concluded with nothing.
I admit that post doesn't contain as much info as I originally thought it did. I was just trying to show how it made no sense to shoot RG. He clearly couldn't be a Vig or SK because he contradicted himself so often, therefore he must have been a VT or Veteran. Sure I could have worded it better but it is not the only thing I have posted.

You accuse me of looking as if i'm trying to contribute, when it is exactly what you have been doing all game.

I do think Pandain is town. I think you're scum. Your defence of yourself is to deflect back onto my questionable actions this game. That is not a defence at all.


The irony is strong with this one. I have nothing to defend, I am town, my actions show that. You have not provided a coherent case. When I present my case on you, you come back with this and you say I am the one deflecting.

I am never here because I have uni to attend, I am getting really sick of stating that. In fact, I'm going to be not here some more as I have uni work to finish.

If you're not going to play, don't play. You have had plenty of time to put something together, only when pushed do you suddenly find the time to put a case on me. No, this time you are mafia and I am town. The roles have switched and yet again we are on opposite sides. This time I hope to return the favour.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 05:47 GMT
#572
I would also like to make a public apology to both TheToast and the hosts of this game. My actions were not intended in a malicious manner but they are against the rules.

Mr Wiggles has been gracious enough to give me a warning and let it be.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 07:47 GMT
#575
On March 07 2012 16:21 Paperscraps wrote:
@Pandain: Why would I claim I shot Jackal if I was scum? There is no motivation as scum to do this. Unless I was tracked or something, in which I would have to cc of course. I really don't get your logic here.

I am not getting lynched. I am clear. Jackal seemed scummy and was not contributing at all, thus he was a good shot. It is unfortunate he flipped green, but we have one less lurker now.

Pandain you have been playing well up to this point, but your vote on me makes no sense.

Everyone really needs to look at TheToast, Deconduo and Bluelightz.


Paper why did you shoot last night? Here is why I ask. You were on people's scum list, it was clear that there were other targets far more likely to get shot than you. You could have saved your shot and pushed Jackal today for more information. You hardly pressured him at all. Yes he was lurking but he always lurks. As for why you would claim the shot, to clear your name. You just did it wrong. I honestly don't know what to make of your claim. If you had claimed before the deadline and had presented a case before night ended I would trust it but now well it is hard to believe.

More importantly what is your opinion of Adam and his case on me?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 07:57 GMT
#577
On March 07 2012 16:21 Paperscraps wrote:
I still think there is an SK.

14 players with ~3 or 4 mafia would be unbalanced. A third party would balance the setup. Town has two blue roles at the moment. Watcher(dead) and Vigilante(Me). It is probably safe to assume there is a medic as well. So that is 3 blue roles out of ~10 town players. This is just a guess of course, but would make the most sense balance wise.


So someone was double-stacked last night then? You claim a shot, mafia obviously shoot and SK shoots. No-one else has claimed a shot so someone must have been double-stacked. After last night there is less evidence for a SK.

Night 1 sandroba claims a hit and turns out to be scum. Could be a gambit could be a SK with a mafia medic protect. Still only 1 confirmed KP.

Night 2 Palmar and Jackal shot. You claim a shot as a Vig. If this is true then surely mafia made the other hit. To me it seems more likely there is no SK than the SK double-stacked either yours or the mafia's hit. Still only one confirmed KP.

Now of course if you are lying about being a vig then it makes sense that there is a SK to account for the second KP.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 08:11 GMT
#580
On March 07 2012 16:51 Paperscraps wrote:
@Snarfs: Who do you think is scum between Adam and Probulous?

It is hard to tell right now because both of their logic is kind of whack.


Here let me lay it out for you.

Things Probulous has done for town
  • Repeatedly attempted to get lurkers to post. eg Bluelightz
  • Pushed everyone as potential scum to ascertain alignment (except possibly decon)
  • Voted for sandroba on both Day 1 and Day 2
  • Has pushed people for their reasoning for suspicious votes after a flip
  • Posts often and responds to all queries
  • Changes his mind when new evidence comes to light and is happy to change his reads. See AKCT
  • Made his reasons for voting for Sandroba clear

I could go find quotes and evidence of this and more stuff I have done but it should be plainly obvious that I am town. I may not be the most effective but I am certainly trying. When Palmar noted sandroba looked scummy I went into his history. I found that game with Jackal and compared his play then and now. It fitted with him actively avoiding the thread. So I voted for him, then he claimed and looked scummier because I didn't believe he was a vet, so I voted for him again. You can't argue that I have not made reasons for my votes clear.

Things Adam4167 has done for town
  • Pushed and voted for Palmar on Day 1
  • Defended himself from Jackal and myself Day 2
  • His case on me

He has not even attempted to make his alignment clear. He says is busy and so can't post but he posts often enough not to be a lurker. His filter is as long as snarfs who has looked town for ages.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 08:20 GMT
#581
On March 07 2012 16:59 Paperscraps wrote:
Don't forget we could have had medic saves!


No-one has claimed an extra shot? Simpler to assume there was no shot until someone does.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 08:31 GMT
#583
  1. You are assuming there is an extra kill point
  2. Therefore there must be a medic save/SK not claiming/whatever
  3. Therefore there is a SK.

Simpler to just assume that there is no extra kill point until someone claims.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 08:48 GMT
#585
I know this is a big post, I am sorry for the wall but most of it is quotes of my posts. I feel like I need to make my voting reasons abundantly obvious. People genuinely seem to think I may be mafia which I initially laughed at but now I have to defend. So here are my posts that relate to my votes.

On March 02 2012 19:59 Probulous wrote:
Jackal given you said this in Mafia L

Show nested quote +
On January 16 2012 23:39 Jackal58 wrote:
On January 16 2012 18:46 wherebugsgo wrote:
anyway, for the world outside of Scamp, I have some pressing questions I want answered while I'm asleep:
Jackal58: I agreed with everything you said day 1, which is either really good or really bad. What are your thoughts right now? Who's scum?

Sandroba. When he disappears he's scum. He has disappeared.


Would you shoot Sandroba if you had a gun this game. I agree with Palmar that he has been hiding which is scummy as hell. His case on Pandain is insubstantial and he isn't here. I have never played with him but since Jackal has a history of recognising Sandroba's scum, I think your opinion here would be useful.

On March 03 2012 06:04 Probulous wrote:
Sandroba, you're not helping yourself. The quote from Jackal in L corresponds very well to your current play. This is why I want Jackal's opinion. He shot you then, would he shoot you now? Toast is right to call you out for lack of contribution. Your response enforces his case.
##vote Sandroba

On March 03 2012 11:11 Probulous wrote:
Adam I am not sheeping Palmar. You hadn't produced anything of note until recently. Sandrona is actively lurking and seemingly has no interest in this game. When he is town he has shown skill in putting together decent cases. He isn't even bothering to try this game. He played like this L where he was scum. Add those together and you get mafia.

This is for voting for sandroba Day 1. I was the second vote on sandroba after Palmar. If you have any questions about this, ask.


On March 06 2012 08:12 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 07:43 Pandain wrote:
There's no reason to vote sandroba, he's not scum(no resistance at all)so that leaves either sk or town. Rather than vote him, we should merely track him. This will effectively negate any chance of him shooting again. I do believe he's sk but feel this is A better alternative as it encompasses all the reasons we would want to lynch sk without the risk of lynching town. We should use today instead as an opportunity to lynch scum.


I don't know why you say there is no resistance to him being lynched. Toast is screaming blue murder that you are scum. If my team is correct then blue is soft-bussing which is unsurprising. The way I see it these are the possible explanations for Sandroba "hit"

Fake Claim
  • He is trying to gain cred by faking a claimed hit.
  • Serial Killer / Mafia - Helps him avoid suspicion Day 2
  • Town - Clears his name to some extent


The implications of this are that there may not be a SK. The problem with the fake claim is that the benefit for him is minimal. The way he claimed makes him look less like a veteran than someone who got medic saved and no town medic would save him. I believe he was shot.

Real Claim
  • He survived a hit and claimed it
  • Serial Killer - Knows someone has hit him and wants to flush that person out.
  • Mafia - Knows that someone has hit him and will claim the hit if they are a vigilante. The vig gets town cred and he looks bad for not claiming the hit so he does it first. The claim also might flush out the shooter. The SK could act like a vig too so either way he had to claim.
  • Veteran - He has been shot and can excuse his crappy play as an attempt to get shot.

The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much?

A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum.

On March 06 2012 08:28 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 08:19 Pandain wrote:
And toast is negligient, he merely is focused on me because I've been focused on him. He's been on me since day 1, and he hasn't supported Sandroba.
There is effectively no support for Sandroba. But again, this only indicates he's not scum, as they wouldn't just let him(and he wouldn't be so lethargic about getting lynched), die when theres a valid excuse.

But I'm not even denying that Sandroba is probably scum. The key fact is that by lynching him we effectively waste a day to either confirm what we already assumed(he's SK), or the fact that he's a vet(in which case we just lynched a town woopdie doo). If we make him unable to shoot for fear of getting caught, then we don't even have to worry about him harming town.


You reasoning rests of two assumptions
  • He is the SK
  • Mafia would defend him if he was scum

The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself).


This is my reasoning for my vote Day 2. I hope it is clear. I even persuaded Pandain to drop the idea of tracking sandroba instead of lynching him (or at least tried to). You see all other actions in this game can normally be explained from both a mafia or town point of view. It is just that normally one is more believable than the other. Does my voting and explanations make more sense from a town or mafia perspective. Voting is the ultimate power given to everyone, it is what separates the town from the mafia. I'll be showing you Adam's record next.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 08:59 GMT
#586
Below are Adam's reasons for his votes. I will try and be as impartial as possible in my analysis.

On March 02 2012 12:58 Adam4167 wrote:
I find Palmar interesting, as I do in every one of our games. I think his exchange with you from yesterday was an exercise in stating the obvious, something I don't expect from him. As I said to him yesterday, everything he was stating was stuff that townies should already be doing and the fact that he needed to stress it across 4 posts shows that he is either just talking for the sake of putting words on a page, or he has no faith in this town. Right now, I am leaning towards he is not town

On March 03 2012 08:27 Adam4167 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2012 18:52 Palmar wrote:
Paperscraps looks towny, so does rgTS. I'm not really sure about teacup, but there's nothing super scummy in his posting so far.

I refuse to analyse jackal58, cause I never get it right. misder seems towny i think. Adam not so much, he could be scummer. I'm not quite sure about probulous, something is off about his play I think, but I can't exactly tell if it's because he's scum. Bluelightz is impossible to read, but assuming the obvious he's town.

I actually think snarfs looks pretty towny from his sk asking post, it just seemed genuine enough not to be fabricated to make us think he's clueless town, in addition I don't think scum often does that.

No clue about the rest really. Toast and Pandain and anyone else I might be forgetting, but if I forget you it's because your content has been worthless so far. So take it as an insult please.

These reads are only a fraction better then the list Misder posted, useless and effortless. You label me as scum yet you never follow it up. Why aren't you pressing me to try and find out my alignment if you think I could be 'scummer'. I think its because you have zero interest in finding scum. Look at his town play: Hammer Mini Mafia He is aggressive, he presses his reads. He doesn't give a shit what the rest of the town is doing. Contrast that with what we've seen so far this game.
##Vote Palmar


These are his reasons for voting for Palmar Day 1. Whilst this is alright it ignores the fact that Palmar also usually dies night 1. Palmar would kill me for this but I would rather keep him around for Day 2 unless he has done something really stupid. Anyway, this vote is fine given he didn't think Sandroba or Misder was scum and made that clear before he voted.

On March 06 2012 08:55 Adam4167 wrote:
I was occupied with life events yesterday, hence my inactivity for a large portion of it. Its far too late in the day to start pushing another case. Id like to see a resolution to this night-hit situation.
##Vote sandroba

On March 06 2012 11:38 Adam4167 wrote:
I'm posting from my phone so I can't quote stuff.
Prob, I already stated why I'm on the sandroba lynch in that post. It's too late in the day for me to push the cases I want to push, so I'm bandwagon voting on sandroba to try and get a better grasp on what happened last night. I like other lynches better but convincing at least 4 people to move off of sandroba is something that would take more time then we had when I voted.
It's a shit vote and I know it, but my vote going anywhere else is just as shit, considering the current vote tally.

As far as I can tell he voted for sandroba because it was easy. Here is my response
On March 06 2012 11:46 Probulous wrote:
Well this is completely illogical. Your last sentence implies that sandroba is getting lynched regardless of your vote. The rest of your post suggests you want a conclusion to the night hit. Well combining those would suggest that you will get that conclusion regardless of how you vote.
In this situation it would make sense to stick with your reads. If people switch to your reads then great, if not you get clarification on the hit. Either way it looks like you don't believe he is scum, so why vote for him? You're taking the easy way out and I don't like it. Town Adam doesn't do things the easy way.


If you really think I am more likely to be scum than Adam you have rocks in your head. I am town, he is not. Vote for Adam.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 11:08 GMT
#588
Decon do you think it likely we have both a watcher and a tracker? Seems a stretch to me but could be true. That would give us a watcher, tracker and medic(probably). If you're assuming a SK too that is a lot of power roles in such a small setup but I guess they are more weak than usual.

I agree that Paper's decision to shoot Jackal over you needs explaining. Makes sense from a mafia point of view to keep you around if they think they can lynch you. I still think Adam is a better bet for today's lynch.

From phone
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 07 2012 23:04 GMT
#605
On March 07 2012 19:33 deconduo wrote: Given the missing KP, I'm inclined to think Paper is SK, and was worried about being tracked. Jackal was a blue read for me, which would explain why Paper would go after him. When none of the bodies flipped Tracker, he claimed the shot figuring if he didn't he'd lynched on the spot if he had been tracked. Its a bit of a stretch, but I can't see anything else that makes more sense. It also explains why he would wait for the day post.

This seems to be the crux of the issue. If Paper was worried about being tracked he would have to claim the shot. Now unfortunately that makes sense whether he is a Vig, Mafia or SK. If he is worried that someone has seen him shoot then he needs to claim even if he is blue. Otherwise they claim and his counterclaim looks terrible, so the claim itself doesn't make him scum.

As for waiting for the day post that again doesn't make sense from a mafia, vig or SK POV. If he was worried about being tracked it would have better if he was any of these roles to claim before the day post. Again that would lend his claim credibility, regardless of whether he was vig, mafia or SK. I honestly think it was a mistake or just not knowing what to do in that case. This makes me think he is either a Vig or SK, his mafia buddy would surely have pointed that out to him (a tad of WIFOM here so tread with caution).
On March 07 2012 22:42 deconduo wrote:
I don't think its a stretch to think we'd have a Tracker + Watcher but no medic. However, what I think doesn't really matter, its what Paper thought at the day post. He claimed exactly one minute after the post, so he didn't have time to think about his decision. He was obviously waiting for something, and was going base his claim on the contents of the day post.

Yes, he was waiting to see whether Jackal died. The problem as above, is that you have separate the motivations between a Vig, mafia or SK shot and his timing is bad for all three.

On March 08 2012 03:09 Paperscraps wrote:
I wanted town to know as much as possible about how the KP was distributed. In hindsight I should have claimed before day post, but this is the first time I have been a vig in a forum game. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night. If he had scum hunted during the night that would have swayed my decision.

This is where we can tell whether Paperscraps is town or not. His motivation for shooting Jackal. He says that Jackal was looking scummy, which is true. He had FOS'd Jackal since the Misder vote. Yes he was on decon more but it was not like he suddenly decided Jackal was scum. This quote in hindsight looks promising
On March 06 2012 20:58 Paperscraps wrote:It seems like everyone thinks Decon is town except for me, so I could very well be wrong. I will be objective about this and look into the filters of others I think are scummy. inb4 "you are backpedaling scum"

Note this post from Toast
On March 07 2012 07:16 TheToast wrote:
If Sandro's claim is true, and there is an SK; top people to question/track/watch should be Paper, and Jackal.

It is not unreasonable for Paper to believe he was being tracked. He was on the scummy list of a few people and had been called out in the thread as a track target.

In conclusion, as shocking as this sounds I believe Paperscraps is a vigilante. I think he second guessed himself about Decon and so shot his second target. He was concerned about being tracked so claimed the hit when he thought it best. The hope was that he would have his named cleared when Jackal flipped scum. Was it the best play? Hell no but it makes sense to me.

If nothing else note his persistance in trying to clear his name. He is clearly frustrated but is putting in the effort to try and make his thinking clear. Compare that to Adam, who is apparently still too busy to participate. Decon I agree it would be nice to lower KP with a SK lynch but I don't believe that Paper is the SK (if we have one). We lynch Adam today.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 00:20 GMT
#609
Whilst Bluelightz still needs to be splattered across a few city blocks, Adam is more important today. He has the ability to sway people with flimsy cases. He has basically outed himself as scum with his bizarre case on me. Even if you ignore the substance of my case the fact that he presented his Day 2 suspicions in the middle of Day 3 after I post a case on him should confirm his alignment. Bluelightz we can deal with tomorrow.

I assume from that post and your previous one that you believe Paper's claim? What do you think of my defense of him? I am not 100% convinced but it justs seems more likely that he is a naive Vet than scum or SK. Your thoughts on this would be appreciated.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
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March 08 2012 00:31 GMT
#611
Do you still think I am scum Adam?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 00:33 GMT
#615


I am hardly shutting you up. You hadn't said anything when I wrote that. You haven't answered my question.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 00:40 GMT
#618
On March 08 2012 09:31 Adam4167 wrote:What kind of stupid scum strategy is it to attack the most townie looking person? Scum buddy the big townie while picking them off at night.


Is this a town strategy then? I don't get it Adam. You know you haven't been contributing, you even admit that and are now trying to use that as an explanation for you being town? Then when you do contribute it is to put a weak case on the most townie person here. What townie does that? Your job is to find scum and by the effort you put into your case on me it is clear you don't want to. It makes more sense from a mafia perspective as it causes confusion and disrupts the town. If you were town and really thought I was scum, you would have put together your case properly. You would have built it and posted it when you were sure. The fact that your half-assed attempt was posted straight after I made my case on you confirms you didn't really think I was scum.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 00:45 GMT
#620
On March 08 2012 09:39 Adam4167 wrote:
You say "Adam is more important today. He has the ability to sway people with flimsy cases". Implying I need to die first because of what i'm saying.

Of course I didn't answer your question, I clicked post before it was even on my screen, look at the time-stamp -_-.
I do still think you're scum, if this is your town play, then I had a very different picture in my head of what town Probulous should look like.


How would a townie Probulous read your case then? You didn't put any effort into it. It was a quick on the fly mish-mash with no coherent explanation as to why I am scum. I know that you take time with your cases and present them clearly when you're town. I have been on the receiving end of your voting analysis. I know you can do so much better. Your choice of timing and the chaotic nature of the case makes me think it was done in a rush. That doesn't fit with you being town. Town Adam would work out why I was attacking him and clarify that. I am losing my enjoyment of the term OMGUS but that it what your your case looks like.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 00:48 GMT
#621
On March 08 2012 09:45 Adam4167 wrote:
Why do you assume that I would only do thing in that manner? Scum are cold and calculating, they wont post something half assed for fear of making mistakes. Again, more WIFOM from both of us.

I started writing that as the day post came down, the fact that you stated you wanted to lynch me was coincidental. My job is to find scum, yes, I had a read on you, so I voiced it. Wheres the problem? could my read be wrong? absolutely. Doesn't mean i'm just going to keep it to myself.


I have responded to your case and the only thing I can find that shows a definite scum driven agenda is my lack of calling out Pandain on his 180 read on you. Now, as I explained I believe he is town. You believe he is town, so what does him having a change of read have to do with my alignment? That would only make sense if we both scum but you don't believe that. Your case has more holes than a colander.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 00:57 GMT
#622
For those wondering what I am going on about when I say I know Adam is more careful and logical when he is town look at his filter from Newbie Mini Mafia III.

Here are two examples of what I mean
On February 01 2012 13:05 Adam4167 wrote:
[image loading]

Right. I'm resorting to paint here (oh gawd) to try and get a clearer picture of what everyone is saying.

After taking in everyone's reads, I find these are the two most likely scum teams: Chocoloate/Zelblade or Simberto/SacredSystem

As we begin to flip more of these names, this picture will solve itself. I am content with flipping anyone in the above diagram, with a special preference for Chocolate for the previously mentioned reasons.


On February 01 2012 12:09 Adam4167 wrote:
After rereading the thread in its entirety, ive noticed something.

Zarepath pushing CosmosXAM as a lynch candidate on day 1 stemmed partly from CosmosXAM pointing the finger a Chocolate for being 'suspicious'. This is a textbook example of what is known as a 'Chainsaw Defense', which is when one mafia gets attacked by a townie, another mafia attacks the accuser to deflect suspicion back on the townie. Its right Here at the bottom of that horrible WIFOM'ey defense of FakePromise.

Add on top of this, both times I've called him mafia, hes come out of lurker mode.

I'm seeing too much in favor of voting for Chocolate, and not enough redeeming him.
##Vote Chocolate



One thing that sticks out to me in Simberto's filter is the continual redirects onto balt11t. And There Are Lots And Lots Of Them

So I guess I am posed with the question of was he doing this to pick up the 'town cred' after we inevitably killed balt? (because lets face it, that was going to happen, sooner rather than later)


The town effort and logic is so completely different to what he is displaying here. His case on me has no overiding logic because I am town.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 21:57 GMT
#661
Pandain, him being a mafia Vig makes even less sense unless you think his mafia buddy would let him claim like that. It is effectively the same as his being mafia. Can you respond to this post for me please.
On March 08 2012 08:04 Probulous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 19:33 deconduo wrote: Given the missing KP, I'm inclined to think Paper is SK, and was worried about being tracked. Jackal was a blue read for me, which would explain why Paper would go after him. When none of the bodies flipped Tracker, he claimed the shot figuring if he didn't he'd lynched on the spot if he had been tracked. Its a bit of a stretch, but I can't see anything else that makes more sense. It also explains why he would wait for the day post.

This seems to be the crux of the issue. If Paper was worried about being tracked he would have to claim the shot. Now unfortunately that makes sense whether he is a Vig, Mafia or SK. If he is worried that someone has seen him shoot then he needs to claim even if he is blue. Otherwise they claim and his counterclaim looks terrible, so the claim itself doesn't make him scum.

As for waiting for the day post that again doesn't make sense from a mafia, vig or SK POV. If he was worried about being tracked it would have better if he was any of these roles to claim before the day post. Again that would lend his claim credibility, regardless of whether he was vig, mafia or SK. I honestly think it was a mistake or just not knowing what to do in that case. This makes me think he is either a Vig or SK, his mafia buddy would surely have pointed that out to him (a tad of WIFOM here so tread with caution).
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 22:42 deconduo wrote:
I don't think its a stretch to think we'd have a Tracker + Watcher but no medic. However, what I think doesn't really matter, its what Paper thought at the day post. He claimed exactly one minute after the post, so he didn't have time to think about his decision. He was obviously waiting for something, and was going base his claim on the contents of the day post.

Yes, he was waiting to see whether Jackal died. The problem as above, is that you have separate the motivations between a Vig, mafia or SK shot and his timing is bad for all three.

Show nested quote +
On March 08 2012 03:09 Paperscraps wrote:
I wanted town to know as much as possible about how the KP was distributed. In hindsight I should have claimed before day post, but this is the first time I have been a vig in a forum game. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night. If he had scum hunted during the night that would have swayed my decision.

This is where we can tell whether Paperscraps is town or not. His motivation for shooting Jackal. He says that Jackal was looking scummy, which is true. He had FOS'd Jackal since the Misder vote. Yes he was on decon more but it was not like he suddenly decided Jackal was scum. This quote in hindsight looks promising
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 20:58 Paperscraps wrote:It seems like everyone thinks Decon is town except for me, so I could very well be wrong. I will be objective about this and look into the filters of others I think are scummy. inb4 "you are backpedaling scum"

Note this post from Toast
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 07:16 TheToast wrote:
If Sandro's claim is true, and there is an SK; top people to question/track/watch should be Paper, and Jackal.

It is not unreasonable for Paper to believe he was being tracked. He was on the scummy list of a few people and had been called out in the thread as a track target.

In conclusion, as shocking as this sounds I believe Paperscraps is a vigilante. I think he second guessed himself about Decon and so shot his second target. He was concerned about being tracked so claimed the hit when he thought it best. The hope was that he would have his named cleared when Jackal flipped scum. Was it the best play? Hell no but it makes sense to me.

If nothing else note his persistance in trying to clear his name. He is clearly frustrated but is putting in the effort to try and make his thinking clear. Compare that to Adam, who is apparently still too busy to participate. Decon I agree it would be nice to lower KP with a SK lynch but I don't believe that Paper is the SK (if we have one). We lynch Adam today.

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 22:06 GMT
#665
On March 09 2012 06:56 TheToast wrote:
***The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim?


Because the shot could have been blocked by a mafia medic (turned out to be true, if there was a shot). You're making big assumptions here Toast. We have no concrete proof there is a SK. It all rests on whether sandro's claim was a fake claim or not and whether Paper is a Vig (mafia or town).

I think Paper is more likely to flip town than mafia or SK. He spotlighted Jackal from the start and then doubted himself on decon. It makes sense that his second choice shot would be Jackal. Now yes this could be a long term mafia play, but we can't know that until we can confirm the existence of a SK.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 22:24 GMT
#668
On March 09 2012 07:03 TheToast wrote:
While there is a good case against Paper, it really does hinge on Sandro's claim. While I think his claim was real (Probulous made a good point somewhere about this) lynching someone based on it just risks too much in terms of walking into a scum trap. If someone sees something I missed that adds to the evidence then I would say he should be lynched but right now the evidence is so circumstancial....


Ok here is my thinking of the possible scenarios we have
We have a SK
  • SK hits sandroba who is saved by a mafia medic.
    There is no reason for the SK not to shoot Night 1 and sandroba's claim was weak. If it was a fake claim you would expect more fanfare (WIFOM). If the claim was real then it must have come from the SK. This means there is a mafia medic.
  • SK hits Palmar or Jackal.
    This would explain the two kills but we can't tell which one the SK hits. We also can't tell whether Paper is lieing because Jackal or Palmar could have been double-stacked. A semi competent medic would have been protecting Palmar given his indentification of sandroba as scum so this is not completely farfetched.


There is no SK
  • sandroba fake claims a shot.
    He could have done this assuming there was a SK. Palmar and others had made it clear that they thought one exists for balance purposes. If people believed the claim it might help clear his name after the Day 1 vote. The problem with this is the manner in which he claimed.
  • Paperscraps Vigs Jackal.
    This explains the second killpoint regardless of whether Paper is scum or not. It would be reasonable for scum to shoot Palmar as he was the first to identify sandroba as scum. It was a risk if we have a medic but it paid off for them. Paper had previously outlined his suspicion of Jackal.


Ultimately we can't know given the information we have. The kill points won't help us identify whether Paper is lieing or not because Palmar/Jackal could have been doublestacked. So I think it is best to look at his motivations for his claim. I am yet to see a reasonable response to my case for his innocence. Until I do I won't be voting for him.

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
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March 08 2012 22:38 GMT
#669
On March 09 2012 07:24 TheToast wrote:
Back to the other issue, what do you think should be the D3 lynch priority?


Adam4167

I think Paperscraps is a town vigilante. Yes I believe his claim because as I keep outlining the supposedly "scummy" things (eg. timing) about his claim are bad for town, mafia and SK so I don't see how it makes him scum. He was consistent in his FOS on Jackal and second guessed himself on decon.

As for Pandain, I am looking at his push for the sandroba lynch. Right now that is what makes him town in my mind but I am taking a closer look.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
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Profile Blog Joined March 2011
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March 08 2012 22:43 GMT
#671
On March 07 2012 09:59 Pandain wrote:
Palmar is town or badass sk. Jackal COULD be SK but I'm leaning towards not. He's definitely not playing pro town....

bluelightz/adam/jackal one or more of them is mafia.


Given this Pandain, what is your current opinion of Adam? Despite the ruckus between us you haven't commented on it at all which is very odd given you thought he was possibly scum.

Would you vote for him over Paperscraps?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
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Profile Blog Joined March 2011
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March 08 2012 22:57 GMT
#672
On March 09 2012 07:42 Snarfs wrote:
I think you're confusing something. Pandain was never pushing for a Sandroba lynch. He was actively against it.

The more I read this game the more I realise I should be listening to you Still reading but yes he was actively against the sandroba lynch. I think my back and forth with him on the day convinced me otherwise. More to come.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
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Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 23:20 GMT
#673
I also believed Toast was scum at that point which made Pandain look more towny. Anyway, here is my reading of Pandain's Day 2.

In this post (linky) I outlined why I thought it was possible that sandroba was scum. Specifically this
The issue I have with the veteran claim is the manner in which he claimed it. Most vets celebrate when they get shot, they have achieved their aim. His was a BTW sort of admission. Combined with his lurky play I don't believe his vet claim. That leaves SK or mafia. I don't agree with Pandain that he isn't being defended. Toast is pretty vehement that Pandain is scum. Chainsaw much?

A Sandroba lynch will confirm the existence of a Serial Killer if he flips Veteran (unlikely). If he flips scum we celebrate and we know they have a medic. If he flips SK we have removed a potential issue for town. He isn't playing well and I would guess would probably shoot town before he shoots scum.

Pandain's response is
On March 06 2012 08:19 Pandain wrote:
And toast is negligient, he merely is focused on me because I've been focused on him. He's been on me since day 1, and he hasn't supported Sandroba. There is effectively no support for Sandroba. But again, this only indicates he's not scum, as they wouldn't just let him(and he wouldn't be so lethargic about getting lynched), die when theres a valid excuse. But I'm not even denying that Sandroba is probably scum. The key fact is that by lynching him we effectively waste a day to either confirm what we already assumed(he's SK), or the fact that he's a vet(in which case we just lynched a town woopdie doo). If we make him unable to shoot for fear of getting caught, then we don't even have to worry about him harming town.

His argument was that the SK would not shoot if he was being tracked. This is a stupid argument because it assume sandroba is the SK. If he is the serial killer, you make him swing because he does not win with town. Yes he can shoot mafia but we have no guarantee he will and in the meantime could shoot townies instead. I explained this to Toast in a later post (linky). I then responded to Pandain's case with this post (linky). Especially this bit
On March 06 2012 08:28 Probulous wrote:
You reasoning rests of two assumptions
  • He is the SK
  • Mafia would defend him if he was scum

The first can only be confirmed by a flip. The second is big. He was scummy since Day 1 and was almost lynched. Then he was shot overnight. Despite all this he has not attempted to provide any analysis at all. Anyone straight up defending him would have to use really weird logic or a chainsaw defense. Surely it is better to let him swing and waste town's time on someone who is clearly not town. Plus they can gain a little cred for his flip and can hide amongst the rest of the votes. I don't see why this is unlikely. If he is mafia they have a medic and he clearly isn't it (he can't protect himself).

This spears his whole argument that sandroba can't be scum because no-one is defending him. His very next post is this one (linky)
On March 06 2012 08:37 Pandain wrote:
I actually change my mind, but mainly for two reasons:

1. By having tracker continuously track him, it wastes tracker time when he could be finding more scum(and tracker tracking new people is arguably more important then finding out more evidence).
2. Mafia KP is hidden, so the SK might not actually exist.

He doesn't even acknowledge my explanations for why mafia would bus him. The comes this lovely post
On March 06 2012 12:16 Pandain wrote:
If you care to take a look, my thought process was clear and logical. No one ended up pointing out the flaws in the plan which I would later discover on my own, so when I did discover them I changed. I wouldn't change because of Toast lol.

Yes you discovered errors in your logic but there were others pointed out that you refused to comment on. Since then it has been all troll and no substance. I agree with Toast that his latest attempt at providing information is a major source of fluff (linky) as it provides nothing we didn't know already.

Pandain accused me of spamming early game and I admit I do post a lot. But I always try and provide something with my posts. Pandain has spammed oneliners and crazy polls and pages of quotes and the only thing of substance he provided was a weak case to track sandroba instead of lynching him. He was suspicious of Adam but didn't comment when we went at each other. I think a Pandain, Adam scum team is likely.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 08 2012 23:36 GMT
#677
Whilst that is certainly more substantial it is going to take some breaking down. I'm having a think and will get back to you. In the meantime do you still think Adam is suspicious and if so would you vote for him?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
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March 09 2012 00:52 GMT
#683
On March 09 2012 08:30 Pandain wrote:
The thing is it doesn't matter whether he had pushed Jackal beforehand.....Jackal was an easy target. Never posted and hardly a contribution, and was a vet. And they would've known he was town. Of course mafia would point at him. Just because there's consistancy doesn't mean he's town..... you have to look at the whole portrait.

You are right that consistency doesn't mean he is town but it is also reasonable that town would be consistent. It doesn't point one way or the other. Him FOSing Jackal early and continuing could be both town(tunelling) or mafia(setting a later play). It just means his reason for shooting Jackal is consistent.
Take for example, his reads. He was suspicious of decon, jackal, and toast. Toast I actually am learning towards town now given the huge contributions he's been doing lately, trying to figure stuff out. Decon I'm almost certain is town. And Jackal, as we all know now, is town.

Well Decon certainly wasn't completely townie Day 1 with his wrong read on me and Misder. Toast looked town to me but even you thought he was scum. Jackal was a big fat null to most people and given sandroba flipped scum when lurking there was no reason to think Jackal had to be town.

What has he done regarding the only confirmed mafia(sandroba)
+ Show Spoiler +
Sandroba will by far be the easy lynch tomorrow and maybe rightly so. Posts one line content and filler. I don't agree with Sandroba's read on TheToast as of now. TheToast is null to me at the moment. I feel as though Sandroba might be too easy of a lynch. If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie?

Before the night ends, he states hish reasons against voting sandroba because "he's too easy."

To be fair, When Sandroba claims, this is what he describes.
Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit.


However later he would backtrack, saying that we should not lynch him because he claimed............vet.(yeah, vet).
Deconduo, TheToast, and Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet, due to the hit claim. Sandroba is on ice though and needs to start contributing as do a lot of other players.


After Sandroba basically gave up, Paper finally votes against him.
On March 06 2012 05:02 Paperscraps wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 06 2012 01:06 sandroba wrote:
I'm busy as fuck right now and I'm already working towards being replaced. I'm veteran. I got shot last night. That's all the info I have good luck.


If you aren't even going to try, then you are going to get lynched.

##Unvote

##Vote Sandroba




Side note: TheToast is scum.


Then we have this suspicious post.
On March 06 2012 09:22 Paperscraps wrote:
Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet, but logic dictates that Sandroba is mafia/SK. This bandwagon on Sandroba went up pretty darn fast. But, alas Sandroba hasn't taken his vote off of AKCT and not putting up a fight at all.

This lynch on Sandroba doesn't feel right. I feel if I change my vote though, people will think that scummy.

Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here.

Going to change my vote anyways. Back to my "tunnel" on Deconduo, who has been coasting.

##Unvote

##Vote: Deconduo

Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet.

Read this post, over and over. There are many things that feel wrong in this post. From the "inb4 you guys call me scum" to the "going to change my vote anyways , this post just is oddly timed.


This is more damning, especially that last post. I pointed out previosuly how his statement "Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here" only makes sense if you know there is a SK or you are scum.

Then he posts this, which is his longest post, and coincidentally because he was accused of being scum.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315210&user=62048&currentpage=2
Note in this post he says he asked rg who he was going to shoot because "he wanted to play along." No , that's a horrible excuse. I can't even explain why its so wrong, just read it and realize why that
1. Isn't how you would do it.
2. Hurts town if he does say who he's going to shoot
3. is a anti town question in general.

I agree that this a terrible question. It makes sense for mafia to want to know who RG was going to target if they believed his claim. Given mafia shot him that night (the only other claimed shot came from mafia), this looks particularly damning.
Probulus, I feel that this is definitely a move to gain town cred. Whether he's mafia or SK I don't know yet, but I know that if I was mafia, I would pull off something like this. Think about it. You get to kill a townie and still "be town." What's there not good? Since we don't have a detective, its impossible to differentiate a mafia vig and a town vig. The only benefit it had, was, in fact, being able to say "oh im vig."

But why claim at all? In that matter especially. If you are concerned about being tracked it makes sense from a SK, Vig or mafia point of view to claim before the deadline. I guess waiting for the day post makes sense if you thought Jackal was the tracker and he flipped townie. Then you have to claim in case the real tracker followed you. Again this makes sense for a mafia/vig or SK. Honestly the claim doesn't add anything to the case against him.

I just don't feel like he would've shot jackal if he was town. Look at his posts. Before he was suspicious of Decondou. AFter he's suspicious of decondou. If he was more sure of Jackal then decondou(to the point where he would shoot him), he would've actually led a real charge on him.

Based on what? That he wasn't contributing? The case would be inherently weak and easily shot down by mafia.
He changes his stories regarding why he shot him, going from "yeah I wasn't certain of decon, jackal seemed scummy" to
Show nested quote +
I shot Jackal over Decon, because I had doubts about Decon being scum and didn't have doubts about Jackal
I don't see the inconsistency there. In both cases he wasn't sure on Decon and so went for Jackal. I agree that Jackal became more scummy between those posts but the intent in the same.

In General:
1. Fosed the same people (decondou, toast, jackal.) who i believe are town. You believe they are town now, not when he originally FOSd them. This is a weak point.
2. Resisted the Sandroba lynch, voted him only when he gave up, and even back tracked after.I think this is your strongest point actually.
3. Questionable shooting and dubious reasoning. Doesn't tell us anything about his alignment

Responses in Bold
I feel that definitely #2 is the weakest. But its evidence that he could, indeed, be mafia. The point I'm trying to make, is basically that mafia WOULD possibly do this because they had just lost sandroba, and given the lack of any vets besides me and decon, they're probably also doing dumb/risky stuff now too. Shooting Jackal as we all see clearly was a good move, as most of you believe him >.> I personally believe that he is the SK. I feel like this would be the right way for an SK to try and gain town cred; presenting himself as a vig.

This is WIFOM.
Also remember that Sandroba, mafia, got hit. As I highly doubt he would just randomly claim, this provides evidence for the fact that he must've gotten hit by either an SK or vig. Given the fact that no vig has claimed shooting him, there must be an sk.


I agree that it is likely there is a SK. Sandroba's claim is very weird otherwise. My point is that you are assuming that there is a SK and so Paperscraps' claim is fake. Yes there are other reasons for him being suspicious but his claim is not one of them. We don't know that there is a SK so lynching someone based on assuming there is one is terribad. Even if there is a SK that doen't mean that Paperscraps could not have Vigged Jackal. It really has no bearing on his alignment. Ultimately his fate will be sealed by our understanding of his voting around sandroba. If you strip the case back it consists of his flip-flopping on sandroba and his bad question to RG. I am not willing to lynch him based on that.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 01:16 GMT
#687
On March 09 2012 09:18 Adam4167 wrote:
This'll probably be my last post before my flip.

Really? What is with the passive aggressive martyr stuff? If you're town make yourself useful. Wailing about how the fates have conspired against you does you no justice.
Probulous
When I see someone making terrible arguments like:
Show nested quote +
On March 07 2012 13:18 Probulous wrote:
What is also interesting but somewhat prone to WIFOM is that he targeted Palmar who is now dead. Jackal targeted him and is also now dead.

This is the kind of crap I expect to see from the mafia in a newbie game, not here. I had to double-check the posters name. Bad logic is not a scum sign, but someone who is known for using good logic and then starts using terrible logic IS a scum sign. Probulous is supposedly an up-and-coming good player around TL Mafia, and when I see him trotting out stuff like this, my alarm bells go off. WIFOM'ing away at the fact that two people I've had interactions with are now dead? seriously? awful. I cant believe you are trying to pin Jackals death on me after a vig has already claimed it. Its laughable!

I agree that is not my best action this game. I like how you ignore everything else I have said about you and focus on the one piece of WIFOM that I used. I even noted that it was WIFOM (linky). I don't get this, I use one small piece of weak logic and suddenly I am scum? Yes I try to avoid this but the rest of my case against you is really strong. Much better than yours which boils down to, "I expect better". Sorry mate I am trying but I can't be perfect.
In response to my case, he then starts to deflect back onto me, to call my (already minimal) credibility into question, here and here. That is a mafia tactic. Townies are concerned with clearing their guilt, mafia want to re-direct onto their attacker.

This is bullshit and you know it. Here is the sequence of events
  • I put together a case on you here linky
  • You respond with your case on me here linky. Note how you even say
    Hah, your case is laughable
    So you are clearly responding to me.
  • Then I respond to your case here linky
No my friend you were responding to me, not the other way round. So there is no way I could be deflecting to you, I targeted you first. Even if you ignore this, I attacked you Day 2 for your scummy question to Pandain. My suspicions of you have been clear the whole time. Yours amounted to
Probulous, why are you sheeping Palmar? His case on sandroba is weak. "You couldn't spot a townie??? oh, you're scum!".
(linky) and
On March 05 2012 08:30 Adam4167 wrote:
This is just spam, Probulous. I was not surprised at all that he flipped townie, nor was I surprised that he was lying all game. You didn't even believe all of his claims, you said as much here:
Show nested quote +
On March 03 2012 20:42 Probulous wrote:
RG stop playing the idiot. No-one believes the 1001 things you have claimed. Going to bed now. Thoughts in the morning.

Your post doesn't even make sense, you start by stating that he claimed Vanilla Townie or possibly Veteran, then somehow finish that he's possibly a Vig or Veteran. What was the point of even posting that wall of text? It contributes nothing.
...
The answer to that question provides nothing to town. It provides information to me. I ask because I wanted to know what Pandain was claiming to get a better grasp on if he was fake-claiming. "As I previously stated it was obvious that RG claims were bogus from a simple read of his filter", No, you didn't. You finished with the conclusion that he was a Veteran or a Vig. It is not a scummy question. Why aren't you calling me scum? You're implying it, but you aren't saying it.

This is in response to me calling you out on your scummy question. You never built a case on me until I called you out so don't tell me I am distratcing town. You are the one who did that.
Finally, this post here. I have already touched on this but I feel I need to go over it again. This post reeks of fear. If my cases are so 'flimsy' then there should be no need to lynch me before my 'flimsy' cases sway anyone, as they'll gain no traction.

It is not fear, it is prudence. I respect you as a player and find your scum play hard to read.
Where do we go from here:
I think the best course of action is to flip me. I know that might seem a bit strange for someone asking to die, but my reasoning is this:
-With me around and my alignment in question, people are going to be wondering what I am, due to my ... interesting behaviour this game. I am a distraction to town that needs to be removed.
-My reads will gain more weight after I'm dead. Once I flip, you can almost assuredly say that bluelightz is town.
-Another reason to hang me is to prevent the mafia from hanging the SK, my death buys him one more night to kill one of these scummy assholes


Martyring and using WIFOM which you say labels me as scum. Just because you die and might flip town does not make your reads any better. You are using the same logic that you are condemning me with. Finally I never called you an asshole so please don't do it to me. There is no need to get personal in here.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 01:21 GMT
#688
Can we get a vote count in chronological order at the flip again? Thanks!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 01:56 GMT
#690
On March 09 2012 10:54 Mattchew wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 09 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:
Can we get a vote count in chronological order at the flip again? Thanks!

If wiggles does this with the write up then you will have it. otherwise use the all feature of viewing the thread


Hahahaha!!!

Cracking the whip Mr Mattchew. Fair enough, I will get off my lazy ass and do it myself. Is there anyone still here? We have an hour to go and people have vanished.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 02:18 GMT
#695
Votes assuming votes before the day post don't count

+ Show Spoiler [Vote Count] +
Bluelightz = 1
1) Probulous
9) Snarfs
10) Adam4167
11) A Killer Cuppa Tea
14) Bluelightz

Paperscraps = 2
2) Pandain
7) Deconduo
16) Bluelightz

Probulous = 0
3) Adam4167

Adam4167 = 5
4) Probulous
5) Snarfs
6) Paperscraps
8) Deconduo
12) Snarfs
15) Adam4167

A Killer Cuppa Tea = 0
13) Bluelightz


+ Show Spoiler [Order of Vote Actions] +

1) Probulous votes for Bluelightz
2) Pandain votes for Paperscraps
3) Adam4167 votes for Probulous
4) Probulous votes for Adam4167
5) Snarfs votes for Adam4167
6) Paperscraps votes for Adam4167
7) Deconduo votes for Paperscraps
8) Deconduo votes for Adam4167
9) Snarfs votes for Bluelightz
10) Adam4167 votes for Bluelightz
11) A Killer Cuppa Tea votes for Bluelightz
12) Snarfs votes for Adam4167
13) Bluelightz votes for A Killer Cuppa Tea
14) Bluelightz votes for Bluelightz
15) Adam4167 votes for Adam4167
16) Bluelightz votes for Paperscraps


These have been spoilered so as to avoid the "He is posting useless lists and spamming the thread" accusations
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 02:29 GMT
#697
On March 09 2012 11:04 Pandain wrote:
The point I'm trying to make about him FOS (i believe) town people, is the fact that hes STILL going against them. This very day he's gone against toast, decondou,and he shot jackal the night before! He defended sandroba, and you say that his reaosning for shooting jackal doesn't tell us anything about his alignment, but it does. If his case was that "Inherently weak" he wouldn't have fricking SHOT him. Previous posts all suggested him feeling confident about toast being scum, why not shoot him? The point of the matter is that he's had dubious reasoning, and changed how he's said he's doing stuff.

And I didn't notice the "Only 1 guy died", but that is damning also. The case is better , far better , then Adam, that's why I'm voting him. We can lynch Adam tommorow.


See this where we disagree. If Paper thought Jackal was scum, he had a reason to shoot him. Yes he originally thought decon was scum but he changed his mind on that and stated so in thread. I have no reason to believe this was an intentional plant. He could do it as scum or town but it is simpler if he is town. It's a long shot for scum because he could have shot decon anyway so why publicly change? As for Toast, it should be clear to most people that Toast's play has become more and more townie as the game has gone on. Even you recognise this, Jackal's did not. So as a town Vig you have to make a choice, the guy who is trying or the one who continues to lurk. I would have chosen not to shoot but he made a judgement call. In any case this rests on us determining why he made that choice. It is too much WIFOM for me to lynch him today.

The strongest part of the case against him is his Day 2 sandroba actions. When I compare his actions then with Adam's well Adam looks worse. He refuses to contribute then throws a weak vote on sandroba once it is clear he is getting lynched and then refuses to post during the night. Paper wants to clear his name, Adam does not. One is being more towny, so I am voting for the other. I was right about Toast trying to improve, I believe the same about Paper.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 02:30 GMT
#698
On March 09 2012 11:20 TheToast wrote:
You missed one Probulous XD


"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 02:33 GMT
#700
A Killer Cuppa Tea

Where you at brother? You voted for Bluelightz when he had a few votes on him and have since disappeared. He isn't getting lynched today (unlikely) and you don't seem to be pushing for him to be lynched or defending Adam. Care to explain?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 02:47 GMT
#702
On March 09 2012 11:43 Paperscraps wrote:
Just got back from school, been there all day. I will post my thoughts in a bit.

Adam with the self-vote. Why do people do this?


I don't know but it is really annoying. It's so passive aggressive and just creates headaches for town. If he is town he is acting out his frustration, if he is mafia he is trying to get us to see that he is being wrongfully accused. It justs creates confusion and is almost playing against your win condition (I know you can vote for yourself in this game so don't get all uppity at me). I expect better from him.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 02:56 GMT
#704
If you think I am scum, vote for me.

This is just weak.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 03:01 GMT
#708
For those interested here is the final vote count.
+ Show Spoiler [Vote Count] +
Bluelightz = 1
1) Probulous
9) Snarfs
10) Adam4167
11) A Killer Cuppa Tea
14) Bluelightz

Paperscraps = 2
2) Pandain
7) Deconduo
16) Bluelightz

Probulous = 0
3) Adam4167

Adam4167 = 6
4) Probulous
5) Snarfs
6) Paperscraps
8) Deconduo
12) Snarfs
15) Adam4167
17) TheToast

A Killer Cuppa Tea = 0
13) Bluelightz

+ Show Spoiler [Order of Vote Actions] +

1) Probulous votes for Bluelightz
2) Pandain votes for Paperscraps
3) Adam4167 votes for Probulous
4) Probulous votes for Adam4167
5) Snarfs votes for Adam4167
6) Paperscraps votes for Adam4167
7) Deconduo votes for Paperscraps
8) Deconduo votes for Adam4167
9) Snarfs votes for Bluelightz
10) Adam4167 votes for Bluelightz
11) A Killer Cuppa Tea votes for Bluelightz
12) Snarfs votes for Adam4167
13) Bluelightz votes for A Killer Cuppa Tea
14) Bluelightz votes for Bluelightz
15) Adam4167 votes for Adam4167
16) Bluelightz votes for Paperscraps
17) TheToast votes for Adam4167

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 03:05 GMT
#710

Adam, we can chat after the game but I am really disappointed in how you ended that. As town you fight, fight to the last breath because you know we are making a mistake. Oh and don't call me an asshole.

Going to take a look at those vote actions again. ACKT where the hell are you hiding?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 04:28 GMT
#723
On March 05 2012 00:57 deconduo wrote:
What is the mafia KP formula?
Did anyone take a hit last night? If not, its not unreasonable to think that rg was hit twice. I highly doubt that the anti-town KP is only 1. While mafia doublestacking RG is unlikely, its possible both SK and mafia went after him independently. However until I hear ACKT come up with an explanation,
##Vote A Killer Cup of Tea


Snarfs

This looks like a townie post given sandroba flipped scum and claimed a hit. It would be weird for mafia to publicly ask about how their kill points are calculated. Plus he is making it clear that RG could have been stacked which if he new sandroba had gotten shot (assuming he did) would make no sense. It's WIFOM but it reads as town to me. Do you think he is scum?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 04:31 GMT
#724
I agree that his choice of decon as a target to be saved is odd to say the least. I agree with Paper that you should be at the top of that list or at least above decon. Whilst decon hasn't done anything scummy in my eyes, he hasn't done anything really townie either. Of course saving me is the best thing that a medic can do but everyone says that
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 04:55 GMT
#726
Bare in mind it doesn't confirm him but it certainly looks town. Go to go, work is ending soon. I might pop in later otherwise it will be tomorrow for me.

Cheers!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 10:46 GMT
#728
Well that is certainly new He he that might explain your vote! Get better matey and we can chat tomorrow.

Post from phone
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 23:50 GMT
#736
On March 10 2012 08:15 Pandain wrote:
I'm the only guy who pushes against lynching adam, and you guys suspect me more.
Oh my god........
I don't even know how paper scraps thinks that I have to be blue.

That's patently untrue. Yes you pushed for a Paperscraps lynch but you never defended Adam. When I asked you outright whether you were still suspicious of Adam, you wrote (linky)
On March 09 2012 08:42 Pandain wrote:
Theres no one else besides Adam really.
...
Basically my suspicions go like this:
Paper, Adam, bluelightz+ akct.

This post (linky) where you make your case against Paper has only this to say about Adam.
On March 09 2012 11:04 Pandain wrote:
The case is better , far better , then Adam, that's why I'm voting him.
We can lynch Adam tommorow.

So no, you were not pushing against an Adam lynch. You don't get credit for trying to save him because you obviously thought he was scum. As far as I can see the only one who does get some credit is bluelightz.

Decon what are your thoughts on Pandain?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 09 2012 23:53 GMT
#737
On March 10 2012 08:46 Paperscraps wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 10 2012 08:15 Pandain wrote:
I'm the only guy who pushes against lynching adam, and you guys suspect me more.
Oh my god........
I don't even know how paper scraps thinks that I have to be blue.


Because you won't even consider the fact I could be vig, so obviously you know something everyone else doesnt or you are scum.


That only makes sense if you are not a Vig I agree that it makes sense for scum to think you are not a Vig but what could he possibly know that makes you not a Vig? Either you are a Vig in which he "knows" nothing or you are lying.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 00:05 GMT
#740
On March 10 2012 08:55 Pandain wrote:
And notice how I didn't say defending Adam, I said I was pushing against a lynch. If mafia have a medic, then we(assuming 2 left), would have preffered to lynch a town and just take the 1% chance SK shoots us and he hadn't been protected.

You're going to have to explain that some more. It doesn't make sense to me.

Back to your original post, if you were not defending Adam why should you be less suspicious for pushing a Paperscraps lynch? It's a well known tactic of scum to push and alternate lynch when the main one is town. See that post looks like someone trying to point out how they were right and we should listen to you know. Can you explain your indignation? I think it is right that everyone gets a look over.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 00:21 GMT
#743
That is illogical. Your read on Adam was wrong, how can we be sure your read on Paperscraps is right? You're basically saying we should listen to you because Paperscraps is clearly the SK. I am not going to"just listen to what you say" because it is clear that your reads can be wrong.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 01:02 GMT
#745
On March 10 2012 09:18 deconduo wrote:
If it was a normal player, he would be 2nd on my scumlist after paper1. However its Pandain who rolls a dice to decide what to do each day:
1. Claim mafia
2. Claim tracker
3. Lurk
4. Spam
5. Lose the game
6. Win the game

I've never been able to read him properly, its what makes him a meh town player but a deceptively dangerous mafia player. If I was to go with my gut I'd say town2. However the only way to know for sure is when he flips.


What happened between 1 and 2? You do realise you read is useless right? You're basically saying he is a "meh" town player but if he is mafia we should watch out. Your gut says town but your head says scum. You couldn't be more diplomatic if you tried.

I find it really odd that he has made a concerted effort to buddy with you. You have no opinion on this? You're a fat null for me right now and that is not good enough on Day 3. I had you pegged as town but you are not helping us, so please try and provide something useful.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 01:42 GMT
#750
On March 10 2012 10:16 deconduo wrote:
If you want useful reads:
-Paper is SK.
-Probulous, Toast are town
-Snarfs, Blue, AKCT are scum.

If only one person dies tonight then that will change as it would probably mean no SK and Paper is telling the truth about being vig.


Those are very strange reads. If I had pick one townie out of everyone here it would be Snarfs. Bluelightz always looks scummy but at least he chose to defy the crowd and not vote for Adam. It's WIFOM but honestly that is the best we can hope for with him. AKCT is likely to be scum based on numbers but the most scummy thing he has done has been lurking which is explained by his head being in need of repair.

Anyway since you don't like talking at night, we can discuss this after the flip. Of course if I am no longer here after the flip (or you for that matter) others can continue this conversation.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 02:16 GMT
#753
Flip-flopping on its own is not a sign of scum. Look at Adam, he flipped-flopped on Bluelightz in the space of an hour and turned out to be town. Flip-flopping with no reason and no contributing is more likely to be mafia trying to avoid being noticed. Anyway here are few reasons why I think he is town

  • Points out the weakness in Sandroba's vote for Pandain (klicky)
  • Clearly explains his initial vote for Paperscraps with not terrible logic (klicky)
  • Points out an interesting tidbit on Rg's read on Pandain and Pandain's subsequent gambit (klicky)
  • His back and forth with Paper looks like two townies going at each other. (klicky)

I could go into more depth if necessary but he just doesn't look like scum to me. He has been too open and willing to push everyone for little mistakes to be mafia. Changing your mind is not a scummy thing to do if you have a reason for it. I changed my read on Paperscraps. Anyway, that is my read on him.

Day in just under an hour right?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 03:11 GMT
#758
Wow

I guess this confirms the existence of a SK then.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 03:23 GMT
#761
Decon that epic reads post from Snarfs is why I think he is town. It is pretty logical though I disagree on a few points most importantly it is transparent.

Given there is a SK the sandroba hit was probably real. Paperscraps' vig claim was real which means the SK must have doublestacked on either Palmar or Jackal. We are at 6/14 with two scum (probably based on balance, is this likely) and a SK. If we miss-lynch today we lose. Half the players left should be on your suspicious list.

I think Snarfs is town, I am town. That leaves three lynch targets in Decon, Bluelightz, Toast and AKCT. Filters how we come.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 04:00 GMT
#764


Because they wouldn't have shot sandroba then would they?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 04:01 GMT
#765
Honesty Toast I thought you had this figured out? Think about it, the evidence makes far more sense that there is a SK than that sandroba randomly claimed for no reason.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 04:08 GMT
#766
Why would the SK hold their shot? Makes no sense because the sooner they shoot scum the less chance they have of dying. We know that Paper shot Jackal so we know that either scum or SK shot Palmar. Therefore there must have been a doublestack.

Yes I am assuming that the SK shot every night but assuming otherwise makes no sense.
Yes I am assuming that sandroba was really shot but gain his claim makes no sense otherwise.

I wasn't convinced before because I couldn't be 100% certain of Paperscraps claim. I can't believe that after so many days working this out you come to different conclusions? Simple question what would you need to be convinced there is a SK?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 10 2012 06:01 GMT
#768
On March 10 2012 14:22 TheToast wrote:
Why would you assume there is a double stack instead of assuming there is a Mafia vig? You jumped to conclusions really fast after the day post. Only person to have put any pressure on you so far this game was Adam, and now he's dead.

And three posts across 8 minutes? I love how you start out all calm about it then get more verbose in each successive post.

Not confirmed anything yet, but this is enough to make me suspicious...


I'll save you some time, I'm not the serial killer. You are right that it could have been a mafia vig. I had discounted the idea because to me mafia runs a huge risk keeping him till late game, he could shot or hung before they get to use him. Plus that would require sandroba's claim to be fake. I still think that there is like 90% assurance there is a SK. It explains things better.

Surprisingly, no one has asked the really crucial question here; why did Paperscraps get killed last night? A vig who has used his shot is not threat to scum, and if anything he was pulling a lot of attention away from the SK. So why was he killed?

Mafia thought he was the SK? If that is true it makes sense for them to try and push for his lynch because he is a veteran (saves them shots). I'll take a look at those pushing Paperscraps yesterday.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 11 2012 00:29 GMT
#776
Decon, I am here, just sleeping earlier

I have no idea where AKCT is, maybe he doesn't either? It sucks majorly that we have two lurkers at this stage of the game.

I think this post of yours (Klicky) is really useful. Especially given Bluelightz's response

On March 10 2012 21:02 Bluelightz wrote:
Yeah decon I realized it but didnt bother to correct sorry :|

How does Mafia have a medic(the sandroba hit?)


As Snarfs pointed out only mafia have an incentive to hide information. Townies point out their mistakes so that others don't make the same ones. Mafia just hope that people don't notice. I am more concerned that he hasn't bothered offering any reads or any insight into other people's posting. He is still lurking despite me badgering him all game long to post so I am would be more than happy for him to swing. His behaviour does not make sense as town and at this stage of the game I can only assume he is doing this on purpose.

##vote Bluelightz
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 11 2012 11:28 GMT
#777
Is there anybody out there?

AKCT I hope your head is still in one piece cause it would be nice to have your input. Blulightz, any words at all? This place is like a morgue

From phone
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 11 2012 22:55 GMT
#790
Alright people we don't have that many hours left in the day.

Town
Probulous

I think Snarfs is town and I won't be voting for him.

AKCT could be scum but I think that a Pandain town flip pretty much confirms him as town. His reaction to Pandain's gambit was really townie and since Pandain was town there is no way they could have planned that. It isn't much but given his filter and smashed head we don't have much else.

That leaves Toast, Bluelightz and Decon. Of those Decon has been the most townie in the last day or so.

TheToast
Toast has been a little strange with his insistence that there may not be a SK. Yes, that is a possibility but given the shots and Decon's explanation of balance it makes sense to assume there is one. It's WIFOM but he was also the only one that Pandain really went after on Day 2. From a mafia perspective it makes sense to shoot Pandain so that he can't push a Toast lynch today.

On Day 1 he defended me and FOS'd (sort of) sandroba with this post (Klicky), specifically
On March 03 2012 00:03 TheToast wrote:
His play so far this game has been weird, all he's done is shown up a few times to make some short stubby posts and then disappears again. Seems odd since every tutorial/analysis I've read says lurking is a bad way to play as Mafia. Shouldn't a vet like sandro know this? What does he have to gain as scum by lurking? I've got my money on SK, it makes the most sense.

At this point I'm pretty convinced Probulous is town. The whole "spam" thing was rediculous, the list he posted served a purpose it wasn't just fluff. He's also been one of the most active members of this game so far, he's got just about the most posts to go through and there's really nothing that jumps out as specifically scummy. He's so far been pretty even handed with his analysis.

This I had him pegged as town but then his he went after Pandain. Here he soft defends sandroba
On March 06 2012 04:35 TheToast wrote:
Frankly I think there is a better case against Pandain. Sandro said a few pages back that he was requesting a replacement, so idk if he's got IRL stuff that's causing him to be lurky. I have to say though the posts he has made so far have been kind of strange and out of place. I want to see if he has any response to the accusations, the vet claim is interesting and could explain some of his posts but he needs to give us some reason to believe this. In all, I think he is a good lynch candidate, but Pandain is better IMO.
He also placed a really scummy vote ten minutes before the lynch which effectively sealed Misder's fate he is yet to acknowledge the truth in this. Our conversation went on for ages but ended up with
On March 06 2012 09:05 TheToast wrote:
...Why didn't you bring any of this up yesterday when I came up with the sandro is SK theory? I suppose it makes sense, but I still say if there is a confirmed scum you vote them over the SK. Pandain is confirmed scum IMO. If in your terrible reasoning that makes me scum, then whatever...
Note he accepts that my argument is correct in that you should always vote for the SK over a townie but he doesn't accept that he has some fault in Misder's lynch. My basic premise is explained here (Klicky). It is worth reading the full conversation though.

However he did vote for sandroba pretty early with this post (Klicky). Overall I think he is scum but there are inconsistencies and I can explain most of his behaviour from a town perspective. Thus I am more happy to vote for his partner.

Bluelightz
On March 02 2012 10:19 Bluelightz wrote:
I could see Pandain as scum, I'll explain later, I can't explain now cuz I got school work tho.

On March 03 2012 08:45 Bluelightz wrote:
Oh, I forgot to tell I don't find Pandain scummy after I read his filter
As Snarfs rightly pointed out, WTF?

I made a case on Bluelightz here (Klicky). Specifically this bit
On March 04 2012 07:25 Probulous wrote:
...You have been told numerous times not to post town/null lists. At least this time you label someone red. But your reason is so majorly hypocritical and stupid it hurts my brain. Jackal, from what I have read always lurks day 1. But the real kicker is that you then decide not to vote for him? Instead you vote for the person you called third party and then in the same post they changed to scum? You also left your vote there when it was clear he was never going to get lynched. That is an easy way to avoid responsibility...
He doesn't bother to respond at all eventhough he had been lurking and was around (Klicky). I've explained my suspicions of his recent play (Klicky). I have trouble reading Bluelightz because he is always scummy. The difference is that this game he has actively avoided being helpful. When he is town he says stuff that looks like mafia play but this game he has tried to avoid saying anything.

Toast may be scum but I am sure that Bluelightz is

##vote Bluelightz
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 00:49 GMT
#794
I am trying to work out if scum could bus their buddy and still win. This Bluelightz lynch has been pretty easy and easy lynches give me the willies. We currently have a 3-2-1 setup (I am of course assuming there is a SK, sue me). If we lynch mafia we have 3-1-1.

Mafia can then shoot town overnight and end up in a 2-1-1 situation. If they push for a SK lynch they end up at 2-1 and can shoot for the win. If they don't shoot tonight or hit the SK they end up at 3-1-1 and town can win. Thus I think mafia will shoot for town tonight and just hope that the SK doesn't shoot the remaining mafia. In this situation they fight for another day and can push for a SK lynch to win. This is the stratedy that I would take if I was mafia and so bussing Bluelightz today makes sense to me.

I have ignored the implications of the SK shooting because mafia have to WIFOM that for themselves. This is the information they know and so have to make a decision based on this alone.

Of course if Bluelightz is town then mafia are in a much stronger position but the point is that they can still win if they bus him so it is not out of the question.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 01:02 GMT
#795
On March 12 2012 09:45 TheToast wrote:
Prob this is ridiculous, Bluelightz calls me out as scum and suddenly I'm the #2 suspect??? Maybe you are working in tandem with him? Bussing Bluelightz for ability to take me down?




My logic is simple, I think Snarfs is town, and AKCT is probably town with Bluelightz scum. Thus it comes down to a choice between you and Decon. How can you be surprised that you are my second target if you think decon is town?

Why is my insistence that there isn't an SK strange? There is still the very real possibility that there is a mafia vig who hit last night. The thing that's strange is your insistence that there IS and SK. The only way you could know that is if you WERE the SK or if you had some inside information that sandro's claim was real. So tell me, which is it?


Again that requires a fake sandroba claim which makes no sense to me. Why do it? And in such a manner? You have yet to come up with a reasonable explanation for it. Then it would also require that scum hold that vigilante till night 3 which is a huge risk. Especially since if this is true then they shot Palmar night 2 who must have been near the top of potential medic protect lists given his indentification of sandroba as scum. If I was scum with a vig I would have doublestacked Palmar that night, just to be sure. In essence to explain the kill points you need a sandroba fake claim with a choice not to doublestack Palmar after he outed a scum. Hell if they thought they had the SK in their sights surely they would have doublestacked him. It makes almost no sense for a Vig to live as long as you claim. Finally take a look at decon's post regarding balance. For their to be a vig there must be 2 mafia total with one being a goon and the other a vig, not balanced.

Yes it is possible but it highly highly unlikely and not a position to make decisions based on.

I didn't FOS you for the hell of it. If we have an SK we need to figure out who it is and they need to die tomorrow. No one besides Adam has put any pressure on you all game, that's simply not healthy for town to have a completely 100% confirmed town player.


Come again? Anyone that is 100% confirmed town at this stage of the game is gold. They lower the chance of lynching town and probably draw mafia shots. If not mafia have to WIFOM a possible medic protect. Confirmed town are awesome, what the hell was that statement? Adam died because he played a lurky game with bad reasoning for his votes and a ridiculous OMGUS case against me. You voted for him so don't go blaming that all on me. At least I put my thoughts on him loud and clear. You jumped on at the last minute.

All to easy for SK to hide amongst town. And after I call you out, suddenly I'm scum and you use that as evidence against me? I'm only becoming more suspicious of you Probulous...
See above, it is either you or decon and right now you look worse. I can't be 100% sure but I have to make a choice.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 01:06 GMT
#796
On March 12 2012 09:34 Bluelightz wrote:
Oh, By the way scum are voting me ^^

Look, if I was scum wouldnt the other scum be trying to derail this?
If I was SK I would've claimed no? Town WILL lose if we lynch the SK y'know, I'll lose too IF I was the SK right nao but im not.

It may sound hard to believe but, I am town, trying to salvage this game.

This may be my last post so, do what you will with this game Town Players, it's at your hands.


You're still not making sense. A SK claim just means he dies tomorrow? Read my post, scum can still win with you as a bus. If you're town I will make you my Day 1 policy lynch because you have made no attempt until the last 24hrs to save yourself. You have given us nothing but excuses all game long and now you come back pleading.

Finally I hope that AKCT comes back soon because otherwise we have no chance of winning. A Modkill on a probable townie even with a scum lynch gives us 2-1-1 which is a loss. I am pretty pissed right now because I have never reached end game and this one is going to be fucked by people not making their alignments clear.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 01:09 GMT
#797
AKCT if you are reading this you need to vote or you will be modkilled and we fucking lose.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 01:19 GMT
#798
Toast here are few reasons why I currently think decon is more likely to be town than you
  • Points out sandroba's uselessness after the Misder flip (Klicky)
  • Pushes Palmar on his non-existent logic. Now yes Palmar was town but this reads as someone genuinely trying to provoke Palmar into a reaction. (Klicky)
  • The Kill Point question as I have explained previously.(Klicky 1, Klicky 2)
  • His case on Adam and Paper which were both wrong were still transparent. He actually gave his reasoning for his vote and voted when the decision was still up in the air, unlike you. (Klicky)
So yes, he could be scum but you look far more likely.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 01:29 GMT
#800
Given he hasn't posted since the 9th I don't have much confidence in him

On March 10 2012 10:16 deconduo wrote:
If you want useful reads:
-Paper is SK.
-Probulous, Toast are town
-Snarfs, Blue, AKCT are scum.

Do you stand by these reads? Obviously not Paper but they others.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 01:29 GMT
#801
EBWOP: the*
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 02:01 GMT
#804
On March 12 2012 10:52 Snarfs wrote:
One thing I'm curious about is this: TheToast tunneled Pandain the entire game until he flipped town. It doesn't seem like something scum would do because it immediately casts them in suspicion when that person flips.

How often does scum do that?


I kind of did the opposite when I was scum in my last game but with the same intention. I was a weird role but hear me out. The advantage of tunneling a known townie is that they are unlikely to actually get lynched. So you can place your vote without having to explain it. Then when they do flip you react the same as a townie would. Remember if your reads are wrong that does not mean you are scum, townies are wrong too. I was wrong about Adam for example. The point is why you voted for that person.

My biggest issue with Toast's Day 1 Pandain vote is that it was 10 minute before the deadline and he knew that Misder was going to be lynched if his vote stayed there. He says others could have been swayed but no-one was around. Even so he never changed. He says he believed Misder to be town and sandroba to be SK but he didn't vote for sandroba even though that would have ensured that Misder lived and sandroba died. He acknowledges that it is better to kill a SK than town but hasn't accepted that his decision directly lead to a townie being lynched. The votes were tied and he could have chosen to kill the SK (in his mind) but instead he voted elsewhere. His reasoning is bad, that is why I find it scummy.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 02:53 GMT
#808
Bitter tears and rage are starting to swell inside me. AKCT better vote or he better not be town cause otherwise my face is going to hurt from the indentation it will make on my keyboard. This game has been fun but if we lose because someone actually got their head smashed in I am going to lose my sanity.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 02:58 GMT
#811
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 02:58 GMT
#812
FUCK YOU BASTARDS!!!!!

Bluelightz come on baby save me now
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 02:58 GMT
#813
##vote TheToast
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 02:59 GMT
#814
SNARFS they just outed themselves, change quick!!!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 03:00 GMT
#816
GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 03:01 GMT
#819
You assholes

We played, game over guys. One time, just one time I would like to win and I got so close
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 03:02 GMT
#822
BLUELIGHTZ I AM GONNA KILL YOU!!!!
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 03:02 GMT
#824
Ok not really but man you hurt me so bad
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 03:03 GMT
#826
Yup, I am indeed the SK
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 12 2012 03:04 GMT
#828
GG
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:14 GMT
#881
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:30 GMT
#904
Wiggles why did this game go on for so long? Surely town could not win once AKCT didn't vote. It would only be fair for him to be modkilled at this stage of the game putting town at 2-2 with no vig overnight.

Anyway, I have a bigger post coming up.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:31 GMT
#910
You're an asshole.

I don't care if that is strategy, it is belittling and petty and doesn't belong in any game I wish to play in.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:38 GMT
#916
I got warned for absent mindedly poking at you out of the game, you got warned for shitting on players. So no they are not the same. It give me the shits when players degrade others but hey it is all part of your stategy, whatever man.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:41 GMT
#918
My Play
All I wanted was a vanilla role but instead I got Serial Killer. This role is hard, like really hard. Given that I had a veteran life I would play the game as if I am town. I wanted to be the most townie town there ever was so that mafia would not shoot me and would have trouble getting me lynched. The downside to this was it made me obvious to them in the end game. I think my choice of shots were alright.

Night Hits
  1. The sandroba shot night 1 was on a scum so I am happy with that.
  2. I wanted to shoot Palmar night 2 because he was suspicious of me and I suspected that scum would shoot him given his outing of sandroba. I also thought the medic might be on him so they would need a doublestack. He was the one obvious town who could take me down and given the numbers I had to shoot him.
  3. I shot Paperscraps night 3 to put suspicion on those pushing him as a SK, especially Pandain. But then mafia shot him and the plan kind of fell apart. In hindsight I probably should have kept him and shot Bluelightz because he would probably have voted with me.

My biggest mistake was the Adam lynch but I was convinced he was scum. It also didn’t hurt that he was the only one pushing for me to die so his death ensured my survival (until Bluelightz came along). I survived to the final lynch which is the longest in any game I have played and had a real shot at winning so I give myself 7/10

Town MVP
Palmar gets this award as he correctly identified sandroba day 1 and noted me as suspicious. If he lived longer Adam would probably have been able to push for my lynch. He also stated that he would see decon die but never confirmed that when I asked him.

Special shout outs to Snarfs for his first game. He was town to me from day one and the only ones who called him scum were mafia. I would gladly have you on my team.

Scum MVP
Deconduo, looking back on this game you managed to lurk just enough to avoid suspicion. I had you labelled as town more from a numbers thing than anything you actually did which is perfect for scum. I was never going to lynch you over Toast so that makes you my scum MVP.

The Rest of You Lot
  • Adam4167- We’ve had our chat and come to an agreement. I expected too much from you and it burnt me. My only advice would be that if you are going to post, post something that is relevant and clear.

  • Misder – You trolled this game so there isn’t much to say. If you don’t want to play, don’t sign up.

  • A Killer Cuppa Tea – Bad luck on the head bash. There’s not much else to say as you weren’t here in the early game. Day 1 sure but you disappeared after that.

  • Pandain – You’re a crazy bastard and I wasn’t sure of your alignment until you flipped. In hindsight you were right about Toast and AKCT. Thanks for the game.

  • Sandroba – You died, thanks for lurking

  • RG – The only thing that was clear from your play was that you weren’t the SK or a Vig. Given you died night 1 that is a job well done

  • Jackal – You hid, you died.

  • Paperscraps – You were a hard read initially but once I got your claim figured out I was pretty sure you were town. I guess next time claim before the deadline

Bluelightz
I had a whole long section on you and how you fucked up this game for me but in the end I want to ask you one question.

Do you want to improve?

I won't be playing a game that you are in. You clearly don't care about town winning and that means they generally lose when you are on their team.

Toast

Special shout out to Mattchew who was awesome as a cohost. Even with me whining about vote counts he muscled up and helped out.

Mr Wiggles thank you for the game, you were fair and even handed with my warning and I respect that.

"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:43 GMT
#920
On March 13 2012 12:40 Snarfs wrote:
Time to point out a nice little mod error!

Jackal was listed as "shot on night 2" for the better part of a few days as opposed to the traditional "killed on night 2" while Paperscraps claimed that his vig role came with a high-calibre rifle...

But that wasn't why my mind changed so radically on Paper. I saved Palmar night 2 and knew there were two KP on him. The vig claim was the only thing that made sense. I tried to make it as obvious that I was defending Paper as I dared without giving myself away but clearly I didn't do a good enough job .


I was pretty sure you were blue for most of the game. You played really really well for your first game, despite what others say. I would gladly have you on my team (scum or town). Glad to know I was right about the Palmar save. Thanks for playing and please sign up for another.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:46 GMT
#921
Mr Wiggles, is there any reason for the game not ending with my lynch?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 03:55 GMT
#928
On March 13 2012 12:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:I decided to give A Killer Cuppa Tea another 24 hours to show up, and didn't like the idea of a close game being decided by a modkill, so I let the night play out. The funny think is, AKCT just PMed me 2 minutes ago.

You do realise that would have been incredibly unfair?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 04:00 GMT
#933
On March 13 2012 12:55 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2012 12:55 Probulous wrote:
On March 13 2012 12:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:I decided to give A Killer Cuppa Tea another 24 hours to show up, and didn't like the idea of a close game being decided by a modkill, so I let the night play out. The funny think is, AKCT just PMed me 2 minutes ago.

You do realise that would have been incredibly unfair?

How so?

Because my vote was decided by his absence yet he gets to live. There were three people on me and if he was around I might have been able to convince him to go with Bluelightz. If I could get Snarfs as well then Bluelightz would have died. This is of course all circumstantial because it didn't happen but his absence really limited what I could do to prevent my lynch. For him to escape censure by showing up after three days of no posting in my opinion would be unfair.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 06:10 GMT
#938
On March 13 2012 14:55 syllogism wrote:
Probulous if you can't correctly identify bluelightz's alignment based on what he posts, even in this game, you are the one who needs to improve. He also clearly does care


I get really frustrated playing with him because I can never tell what alignment is, I made it my mission this game to make him post stuff and it failed. He got me lynched because he voted for me based on a hunch and then abandoned the thread. I am not sure what else to do. I gave very specific advice on how to make himself useful and he intentionally ignored it, and he is town? I just don't know how to improve on this.

It isn't only him. AKCT was similar as was Misder. They lurk hardcore and then post stuff that is either really scummy or neutral. How do you get a town read on people who can't be bothered to participate? I'm serious in that any advice on this front would be welcome. I am genuinely frustrated and it ruined the game for me.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 06:24 GMT
#940
Thanks Syllo, you're too kind. 0:4 is not good

I'm thinking of completely changing how I play. I think I post too much and dominate the thread making it easy for others to hide. My cases are getting shorter which is good, I just need to tone down the number of posts. I really need a way to deal with lurkers though, I mean end game here there were two town lurkers and a medic, how do you win a game like that?
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-13 08:26:28
March 13 2012 08:01 GMT
#946
Edit: Nevermind
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 11:05 GMT
#950
On March 13 2012 18:47 Palmar wrote:
I told you to lynch deconduo, why didn't you listen?

Because when I asked if you sure you never responded. I could only assume you had changed your mind.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 20:41 GMT
#954
On March 13 2012 20:28 Palmar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 13 2012 20:05 Probulous wrote:
On March 13 2012 18:47 Palmar wrote:
I told you to lynch deconduo, why didn't you listen?

Because when I asked if you sure you never responded. I could only assume you had changed your mind.


I love how I just couldn't figure out what was wrong with your play. I said it like 2-3 times.

That was why I shot you :p I knew you would get it soon and then i would be lynched
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 13 2012 22:02 GMT
#956
On March 14 2012 05:44 Mattchew wrote:
OH btw... palmar was double stacked so that was super lucky for scum and prob otherwise it woulda probably been gg


That was a calculated guess. I figured that the medic would probably be on Palmar but there was no way I could let him live. Surviving one day with him being suspicious of me was lucky enough. Besides after he outed sandroba I figured that scum would go after him, especially if they had a vig. Yes it was a gamble but if he was protected I could always blame it on scum.

This role was really weird because I had to balance out trying to kill scum and removing powerful townies. Night 1 I was sure of sandroba but so was the mafia medic but at least it confirmed him to me. Night 2 Palmar had to go. Night 3 was a tough one, in hindsight I should have shot Bluelightz but I wanted to push a Pandain lynch on the final day. There seemed enough suspicion around him to do it. I was certain that Paperscraps was a Vig so shooting him would make those that pushed his lynch look worse than they already did.

I figured going into the final lynch with 3:2:1 would give me a shot at lynching scum for a 3:1:1 night. I could then shoot town and hope that mafia shot town for a win. With AKCT missing if he was modkilled it made my job even easier as it would be 2:2:1 so all I had to do was shoot the scum medic to win. The whole thing was a balancing act but it almost came off.

If Bluelightz had switched to Toast it would have been 2:1:1 with the final scum outed. If decon shot me or didn't shoot town he would have died leaving a final day of Bluelightz, me and snarfs. I am certain I could have pushed snarfs to vote for Bluelightz and win the game. If he shot one of the townies, I would straight up win.

I was so close, so close, but just not close enough. Oh well.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 14 2012 22:06 GMT
#959
On March 14 2012 23:45 TheToast wrote:
As far as ACKT's absence making this unfair, that's completely rediculous. Town was about to lynch Bluelightz, and we knew who the SK was, Probulous you would've died in the night. Unless you were planning on hitting Decon, you were still going to lose. Frankly, Wiggle's decision not to modkill AKCT actually made things pretty even.


The point being that if the same thing had gone down with AKCT being around I could possibly have swung the vote. You guy had outed yourselves, I never got the chance to even try because he didn't vote. Your responsibility in these games is to vote and there should be accountability for them. My options were essentially whittled down to convincing an absent bluelightz to switch which is something I might not have had to do if AKCT was around. Letting him off scott free would be unfair in my opinion. I would not have died that night, you forget I was a veteran as well. You guys had outed yourselves so I knew that decon had to be the medic because you were just so out there compared to him. Now you can say you wouldn't have done this if he wasn't here but then I would not have been lynched.

As for Bluelightz destroying you, I'd like to see it. It would change a lot of things in my mind.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
Probulous
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Australia3894 Posts
March 15 2012 01:03 GMT
#964
On March 15 2012 09:43 TheToast wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2012 07:06 Probulous wrote:
On March 14 2012 23:45 TheToast wrote:
As far as ACKT's absence making this unfair, that's completely rediculous. Town was about to lynch Bluelightz, and we knew who the SK was, Probulous you would've died in the night. Unless you were planning on hitting Decon, you were still going to lose. Frankly, Wiggle's decision not to modkill AKCT actually made things pretty even.


The point being that if the same thing had gone down with AKCT being around I could possibly have swung the vote. You guy had outed yourselves, I never got the chance to even try because he didn't vote. Your responsibility in these games is to vote and there should be accountability for them. My options were essentially whittled down to convincing an absent bluelightz to switch which is something I might not have had to do if AKCT was around. Letting him off scott free would be unfair in my opinion. I would not have died that night, you forget I was a veteran as well. You guys had outed yourselves so I knew that decon had to be the medic because you were just so out there compared to him. Now you can say you wouldn't have done this if he wasn't here but then I would not have been lynched.

As for Bluelightz destroying you, I'd like to see it. It would change a lot of things in my mind.


There's no guarantee AKCT would've voted for Bluelightz. And we outed ourselves with three minutes to go on Day 4, there was not much chance for town to respond. We were counting on that. Whether AKCT could have changed the outcome of the game is impossible to say. If you still have a problem with it, you should take it up with Flamewheel or GMarshal. Either way Wiggles was put in a difficult position and I think he made the right choice not to mod kill him.


I fully agree that it put Wiggles in a difficult position I clearly don't have an issue because he didn't turn up. The point is you have these rules to avoid exactly these things. What is the point if you don't follow them.

Honestly Probulous, I think you're being a bit of a sore loser. Scum team had a teammate that put in zero effort this game. His posts scream scum, he made no attempt to defend himself, and we were left with the prospect of losing this game because of it. He may not have gone completely inactive but it was close; he had like 5 total posts in the Mafia QT. Bottom line is people going inactive and getting modkilled are part of this game, you need to plan for it and be able to react to it in turn.


I full admit that I should have realised you guys could switch the vote, that doesn't mean that it is alright for people to just not bother. The difference with being scum is you don't need a majority to make decisions. You can play with one man down because town doesn't know who you are. Hell bussing your dodgy guy is a valid play. It doesn't work the same way for town because I cannot tell whether the "dodgy" guy is actually dodgy or not. The point is people who don't bother look exactly like scum so it effectively gives you more numbers.

You're right, I did forget that you had veteran status and maybe that would have helped. But the reality is you didn't have a single good read on scum the whole game. (sandro doesn't really count, he wasn't trying and we pushed his lynch) You were also about to kill another townie and the only chance you had to win was if you shot decon. From what you were posting it didn't seem terribly likely to me that would happen. It's not like you played the game of your life and had it snatched away from you in some crazy upset. You had a major slip up that clearly outed yourself and allowed us to out maneuver you, that's what I see as the core of this game.


I shot sandro night 1. So no, sandro does count. If you guys had not switched I would probably have shot you. So yeah you would have won the following night. I believe I played well this game. My focus was on keeping the balance between scum and powerful townies. I shot scum night 1 and correctly guessed your shot night 2. I got distracted by sandroba's lynch and stopped pushing you which was a major mistake. Adam's case against me and his reasoning for voting for sandroba occupied me day 3, another mistake but one I don't feel bad about. He looked scummy, he doesn't normally play like that, I'm ok with that. That slip-up was a simple mistake and if it is what confirmed me then you were lucky. I was really frustrated with you because you were putting credence in an idea that made no sense to me. I tried to make sure all my reasoning didn't require me being an SK. I just happened to discount the possibility of a mafia vig because it made no sense.

Like I said earlier, not great but overall I am happy with my play.

Question for you, who did you think the SK was before that? I was sure you guys knew who I was from really early game. I was just banking on you WIFOMing a medic save and me having an extra life.
"Dude has some really interesting midgame switches that I wouldn't have expected. "I violated your house" into "HIHO THE DAIRY OH!" really threw me. You don't usually expect children's poetry harass as a follow up " - AmericanUmlaut
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