EPTMr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II - Page 8
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Probulous
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On March 09 2012 08:30 Pandain wrote: The thing is it doesn't matter whether he had pushed Jackal beforehand.....Jackal was an easy target. Never posted and hardly a contribution, and was a vet. And they would've known he was town. Of course mafia would point at him. Just because there's consistancy doesn't mean he's town..... you have to look at the whole portrait. You are right that consistency doesn't mean he is town but it is also reasonable that town would be consistent. It doesn't point one way or the other. Him FOSing Jackal early and continuing could be both town(tunelling) or mafia(setting a later play). It just means his reason for shooting Jackal is consistent. Take for example, his reads. He was suspicious of decon, jackal, and toast. Toast I actually am learning towards town now given the huge contributions he's been doing lately, trying to figure stuff out. Decon I'm almost certain is town. And Jackal, as we all know now, is town. Well Decon certainly wasn't completely townie Day 1 with his wrong read on me and Misder. Toast looked town to me but even you thought he was scum. Jackal was a big fat null to most people and given sandroba flipped scum when lurking there was no reason to think Jackal had to be town. What has he done regarding the only confirmed mafia(sandroba) + Show Spoiler + Sandroba will by far be the easy lynch tomorrow and maybe rightly so. Posts one line content and filler. I don't agree with Sandroba's read on TheToast as of now. TheToast is null to me at the moment. I feel as though Sandroba might be too easy of a lynch. If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie? Before the night ends, he states hish reasons against voting sandroba because "he's too easy." To be fair, When Sandroba claims, this is what he describes. Ok so Sandroba claims vet or saved by medic. Why would Sandroba have been targeted as all last night? I don't think a medic would have been on Sandroba either. Thus that leaves the vet claim. Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit. However later he would backtrack, saying that we should not lynch him because he claimed............vet.(yeah, vet). Deconduo, TheToast, and Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet, due to the hit claim. Sandroba is on ice though and needs to start contributing as do a lot of other players. After Sandroba basically gave up, Paper finally votes against him. On March 06 2012 05:02 Paperscraps wrote: If you aren't even going to try, then you are going to get lynched. ##Unvote ##Vote Sandroba Side note: TheToast is scum. Then we have this suspicious post. On March 06 2012 09:22 Paperscraps wrote: Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet, but logic dictates that Sandroba is mafia/SK. This bandwagon on Sandroba went up pretty darn fast. But, alas Sandroba hasn't taken his vote off of AKCT and not putting up a fight at all. This lynch on Sandroba doesn't feel right. I feel if I change my vote though, people will think that scummy. Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here. Going to change my vote anyways. Back to my "tunnel" on Deconduo, who has been coasting. ##Unvote ##Vote: Deconduo Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet. Read this post, over and over. There are many things that feel wrong in this post. From the "inb4 you guys call me scum" to the "going to change my vote anyways , this post just is oddly timed. This is more damning, especially that last post. I pointed out previosuly how his statement "Only one person died last night. Something doesn't fit here" only makes sense if you know there is a SK or you are scum. Then he posts this, which is his longest post, and coincidentally because he was accused of being scum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=315210&user=62048¤tpage=2 Note in this post he says he asked rg who he was going to shoot because "he wanted to play along." No , that's a horrible excuse. I can't even explain why its so wrong, just read it and realize why that 1. Isn't how you would do it. 2. Hurts town if he does say who he's going to shoot 3. is a anti town question in general. I agree that this a terrible question. It makes sense for mafia to want to know who RG was going to target if they believed his claim. Given mafia shot him that night (the only other claimed shot came from mafia), this looks particularly damning. Probulus, I feel that this is definitely a move to gain town cred. Whether he's mafia or SK I don't know yet, but I know that if I was mafia, I would pull off something like this. Think about it. You get to kill a townie and still "be town." What's there not good? Since we don't have a detective, its impossible to differentiate a mafia vig and a town vig. The only benefit it had, was, in fact, being able to say "oh im vig." But why claim at all? In that matter especially. If you are concerned about being tracked it makes sense from a SK, Vig or mafia point of view to claim before the deadline. I guess waiting for the day post makes sense if you thought Jackal was the tracker and he flipped townie. Then you have to claim in case the real tracker followed you. Again this makes sense for a mafia/vig or SK. Honestly the claim doesn't add anything to the case against him. I just don't feel like he would've shot jackal if he was town. Look at his posts. Before he was suspicious of Decondou. AFter he's suspicious of decondou. If he was more sure of Jackal then decondou(to the point where he would shoot him), he would've actually led a real charge on him. Based on what? That he wasn't contributing? The case would be inherently weak and easily shot down by mafia. He changes his stories regarding why he shot him, going from "yeah I wasn't certain of decon, jackal seemed scummy" to I don't see the inconsistency there. In both cases he wasn't sure on Decon and so went for Jackal. I agree that Jackal became more scummy between those posts but the intent in the same. In General: 1. Fosed the same people (decondou, toast, jackal.) who i believe are town. You believe they are town now, not when he originally FOSd them. This is a weak point. 2. Resisted the Sandroba lynch, voted him only when he gave up, and even back tracked after.I think this is your strongest point actually. 3. Questionable shooting and dubious reasoning. Doesn't tell us anything about his alignment Responses in Bold I feel that definitely #2 is the weakest. But its evidence that he could, indeed, be mafia. The point I'm trying to make, is basically that mafia WOULD possibly do this because they had just lost sandroba, and given the lack of any vets besides me and decon, they're probably also doing dumb/risky stuff now too. Shooting Jackal as we all see clearly was a good move, as most of you believe him >.> I personally believe that he is the SK. I feel like this would be the right way for an SK to try and gain town cred; presenting himself as a vig. This is WIFOM. Also remember that Sandroba, mafia, got hit. As I highly doubt he would just randomly claim, this provides evidence for the fact that he must've gotten hit by either an SK or vig. Given the fact that no vig has claimed shooting him, there must be an sk. I agree that it is likely there is a SK. Sandroba's claim is very weird otherwise. My point is that you are assuming that there is a SK and so Paperscraps' claim is fake. Yes there are other reasons for him being suspicious but his claim is not one of them. We don't know that there is a SK so lynching someone based on assuming there is one is terribad. Even if there is a SK that doen't mean that Paperscraps could not have Vigged Jackal. It really has no bearing on his alignment. Ultimately his fate will be sealed by our understanding of his voting around sandroba. If you strip the case back it consists of his flip-flopping on sandroba and his bad question to RG. I am not willing to lynch him based on that. | ||
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On March 09 2012 09:18 Adam4167 wrote: This'll probably be my last post before my flip. Really? What is with the passive aggressive martyr stuff? If you're town make yourself useful. Wailing about how the fates have conspired against you does you no justice. Probulous When I see someone making terrible arguments like: This is the kind of crap I expect to see from the mafia in a newbie game, not here. I had to double-check the posters name. Bad logic is not a scum sign, but someone who is known for using good logic and then starts using terrible logic IS a scum sign. Probulous is supposedly an up-and-coming good player around TL Mafia, and when I see him trotting out stuff like this, my alarm bells go off. WIFOM'ing away at the fact that two people I've had interactions with are now dead? seriously? awful. I cant believe you are trying to pin Jackals death on me after a vig has already claimed it. Its laughable! I agree that is not my best action this game. I like how you ignore everything else I have said about you and focus on the one piece of WIFOM that I used. I even noted that it was WIFOM (linky). I don't get this, I use one small piece of weak logic and suddenly I am scum? Yes I try to avoid this but the rest of my case against you is really strong. Much better than yours which boils down to, "I expect better". Sorry mate I am trying but I can't be perfect. In response to my case, he then starts to deflect back onto me, to call my (already minimal) credibility into question, here and here. That is a mafia tactic. Townies are concerned with clearing their guilt, mafia want to re-direct onto their attacker. This is bullshit and you know it. Here is the sequence of events
Probulous, why are you sheeping Palmar? His case on sandroba is weak. "You couldn't spot a townie??? oh, you're scum!". (linky) and On March 05 2012 08:30 Adam4167 wrote: This is just spam, Probulous. I was not surprised at all that he flipped townie, nor was I surprised that he was lying all game. You didn't even believe all of his claims, you said as much here: Your post doesn't even make sense, you start by stating that he claimed Vanilla Townie or possibly Veteran, then somehow finish that he's possibly a Vig or Veteran. What was the point of even posting that wall of text? It contributes nothing. ... The answer to that question provides nothing to town. It provides information to me. I ask because I wanted to know what Pandain was claiming to get a better grasp on if he was fake-claiming. "As I previously stated it was obvious that RG claims were bogus from a simple read of his filter", No, you didn't. You finished with the conclusion that he was a Veteran or a Vig. It is not a scummy question. Why aren't you calling me scum? You're implying it, but you aren't saying it. This is in response to me calling you out on your scummy question. You never built a case on me until I called you out so don't tell me I am distratcing town. You are the one who did that. Finally, this post here. I have already touched on this but I feel I need to go over it again. This post reeks of fear. If my cases are so 'flimsy' then there should be no need to lynch me before my 'flimsy' cases sway anyone, as they'll gain no traction. It is not fear, it is prudence. I respect you as a player and find your scum play hard to read. Where do we go from here: I think the best course of action is to flip me. I know that might seem a bit strange for someone asking to die, but my reasoning is this: -With me around and my alignment in question, people are going to be wondering what I am, due to my ... interesting behaviour this game. I am a distraction to town that needs to be removed. -My reads will gain more weight after I'm dead. Once I flip, you can almost assuredly say that bluelightz is town. -Another reason to hang me is to prevent the mafia from hanging the SK, my death buys him one more night to kill one of these scummy assholes Martyring and using WIFOM which you say labels me as scum. Just because you die and might flip town does not make your reads any better. You are using the same logic that you are condemning me with. Finally I never called you an asshole so please don't do it to me. There is no need to get personal in here. | ||
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On March 09 2012 10:54 Mattchew wrote: If wiggles does this with the write up then you will have it. otherwise use the all feature of viewing the thread  Hahahaha!!! Cracking the whip Mr Mattchew. Fair enough, I will get off my lazy ass and do it myself. Is there anyone still here? We have an hour to go and people have vanished. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Vote Count] + Bluelightz = 1 1) 9) 10) 11) A Killer Cuppa Tea 14) Paperscraps = 2 2) Pandain 7) 16) Bluelightz Probulous = 0 3) Adam4167 = 5 4) Probulous 5) 6) Paperscraps 8) Deconduo 12) Snarfs 15) Adam4167 A Killer Cuppa Tea = 0 13) + Show Spoiler [Order of Vote Actions] + 1) 2) Pandain votes for Paperscraps 3) 4) Probulous votes for Adam4167 5) 6) Paperscraps votes for Adam4167 7) 8) Deconduo votes for Adam4167 9) 10) 11) A Killer Cuppa Tea votes for Bluelightz 12) Snarfs votes for Adam4167 13) 14) 15) Adam4167 votes for Adam4167 16) Bluelightz votes for Paperscraps These have been spoilered so as to avoid the "He is posting useless lists and spamming the thread" accusations  | ||
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On March 09 2012 11:04 Pandain wrote: The point I'm trying to make about him FOS (i believe) town people, is the fact that hes STILL going against them. This very day he's gone against toast, decondou,and he shot jackal the night before! He defended sandroba, and you say that his reaosning for shooting jackal doesn't tell us anything about his alignment, but it does. If his case was that "Inherently weak" he wouldn't have fricking SHOT him. Previous posts all suggested him feeling confident about toast being scum, why not shoot him? The point of the matter is that he's had dubious reasoning, and changed how he's said he's doing stuff. And I didn't notice the "Only 1 guy died", but that is damning also. The case is better , far better , then Adam, that's why I'm voting him. We can lynch Adam tommorow. See this where we disagree. If Paper thought Jackal was scum, he had a reason to shoot him. Yes he originally thought decon was scum but he changed his mind on that and stated so in thread. I have no reason to believe this was an intentional plant. He could do it as scum or town but it is simpler if he is town. It's a long shot for scum because he could have shot decon anyway so why publicly change? As for Toast, it should be clear to most people that Toast's play has become more and more townie as the game has gone on. Even you recognise this, Jackal's did not. So as a town Vig you have to make a choice, the guy who is trying or the one who continues to lurk. I would have chosen not to shoot but he made a judgement call. In any case this rests on us determining why he made that choice. It is too much WIFOM for me to lynch him today. The strongest part of the case against him is his Day 2 sandroba actions. When I compare his actions then with Adam's well Adam looks worse. He refuses to contribute then throws a weak vote on sandroba once it is clear he is getting lynched and then refuses to post during the night. Paper wants to clear his name, Adam does not. One is being more towny, so I am voting for the other. I was right about Toast trying to improve, I believe the same about Paper. | ||
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On March 09 2012 11:20 TheToast wrote: You missed one Probulous XD  | ||
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A Killer Cuppa Tea Where you at brother? You voted for Bluelightz when he had a few votes on him and have since disappeared. He isn't getting lynched today (unlikely) and you don't seem to be pushing for him to be lynched or defending Adam. Care to explain? | ||
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On March 09 2012 11:43 Paperscraps wrote: Just got back from school, been there all day. I will post my thoughts in a bit. Adam with the self-vote. Why do people do this? I don't know but it is really annoying. It's so passive aggressive and just creates headaches for town. If he is town he is acting out his frustration, if he is mafia he is trying to get us to see that he is being wrongfully accused. It justs creates confusion and is almost playing against your win condition (I know you can vote for yourself in this game so don't get all uppity at me). I expect better from him. | ||
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This is just weak. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [Vote Count] + Bluelightz = 1 1) 9) 10) 11) A Killer Cuppa Tea 14) Paperscraps = 2 2) Pandain 7) 16) Bluelightz Probulous = 0 3) Adam4167 = 6 4) Probulous 5) 6) Paperscraps 8) Deconduo 12) Snarfs 15) Adam4167 17) TheToast A Killer Cuppa Tea = 0 13) + Show Spoiler [Order of Vote Actions] + 1) 2) Pandain votes for Paperscraps 3) 4) Probulous votes for Adam4167 5) 6) Paperscraps votes for Adam4167 7) 8) Deconduo votes for Adam4167 9) 10) 11) A Killer Cuppa Tea votes for Bluelightz 12) Snarfs votes for Adam4167 13) 14) 15) Adam4167 votes for Adam4167 16) Bluelightz votes for Paperscraps 17) TheToast votes for Adam4167 | ||
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 Adam, we can chat after the game but I am really disappointed in how you ended that. As town you fight, fight to the last breath because you know we are making a mistake. Oh and don't call me an asshole. Going to take a look at those vote actions again. ACKT where the hell are you hiding? | ||
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On March 05 2012 00:57 deconduo wrote: What is the mafia KP formula? Did anyone take a hit last night? If not, its not unreasonable to think that rg was hit twice. I highly doubt that the anti-town KP is only 1. While mafia doublestacking RG is unlikely, its possible both SK and mafia went after him independently. However until I hear ACKT come up with an explanation, ##Vote A Killer Cup of Tea Snarfs This looks like a townie post given sandroba flipped scum and claimed a hit. It would be weird for mafia to publicly ask about how their kill points are calculated. Plus he is making it clear that RG could have been stacked which if he new sandroba had gotten shot (assuming he did) would make no sense. It's WIFOM but it reads as town to me. Do you think he is scum? | ||
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Cheers! | ||
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He he that might explain your vote! Get better matey and we can chat tomorrow. Post from phone | ||
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On March 10 2012 08:15 Pandain wrote: I'm the only guy who pushes against lynching adam, and you guys suspect me more. Oh my god........ I don't even know how paper scraps thinks that I have to be blue. That's patently untrue. Yes you pushed for a Paperscraps lynch but you never defended Adam. When I asked you outright whether you were still suspicious of Adam, you wrote (linky) On March 09 2012 08:42 Pandain wrote: Theres no one else besides Adam really. ... Basically my suspicions go like this: Paper, Adam, bluelightz+ akct. This post (linky) where you make your case against Paper has only this to say about Adam. On March 09 2012 11:04 Pandain wrote: The case is better , far better , then Adam, that's why I'm voting him. We can lynch Adam tommorow. So no, you were not pushing against an Adam lynch. You don't get credit for trying to save him because you obviously thought he was scum. As far as I can see the only one who does get some credit is bluelightz. Decon what are your thoughts on Pandain? | ||
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On March 10 2012 08:46 Paperscraps wrote: Because you won't even consider the fact I could be vig, so obviously you know something everyone else doesnt or you are scum. That only makes sense if you are not a Vig I agree that it makes sense for scum to think you are not a Vig but what could he possibly know that makes you not a Vig? Either you are a Vig in which he "knows" nothing or you are lying. | ||
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On March 10 2012 08:55 Pandain wrote: And notice how I didn't say defending Adam, I said I was pushing against a lynch. If mafia have a medic, then we(assuming 2 left), would have preffered to lynch a town and just take the 1% chance SK shoots us and he hadn't been protected. You're going to have to explain that some more. It doesn't make sense to me. Back to your original post, if you were not defending Adam why should you be less suspicious for pushing a Paperscraps lynch? It's a well known tactic of scum to push and alternate lynch when the main one is town. See that post looks like someone trying to point out how they were right and we should listen to you know. Can you explain your indignation? I think it is right that everyone gets a look over. | ||
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