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On March 08 2012 09:17 Snarfs wrote:
Well, actually, if for some strange reason Adam flips town then I would consider it... But then we are getting low on townspeople.
We're at 6-2-1 right now assuming an SK. If we mess this lynch up we could potentially be at a worst case of [b]3-2-1[b] if mafia and SK both kill a townie.
I mean, this lynch is so important for town today. Where're the contributions from AKCT, Bluelightz, Pandain, etc.??
Ummm wait a minute here. Total number of mafia is hidden in this game. How is it you seem to know how many scum players there are in this game??
I suppose you could have guessed/reasoned from balance, but you didn't say that. You didn't even bother to share your reasoning as to why you think there were 3 scum to start off with. Why would you go out of the way to point out that you are assuming the existence of the SK but not to mention you are assuming numbers on Mafia?
Explain please.
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On March 08 2012 10:54 Snarfs wrote:
@TheToast: Any objections to lynching Bluelightz?
Objections? No. Am I convinced he's scum? Not entirely.
Let me quote what I said before:
As far as Bluelightz goes; lynching him is tricky business. Based on the game I played with him and the past games of his that I've looked through, he is such a bad town player that he is impossible to get a decent read off of. In NMM 1 I was pretty convinced through most of the game he was mafia just because his posting was so random and contained so much fluff. Turns out he was town, but I honestly think we would have been better off lynching him early on to eliminate him as a suspect and stop him from muddying the waters (which I believe I used as an argument for his lynching in that game). If the votes are there at the end of the day, I'll support his lynch but I seriously think he could flip either way.
One of the things I used as evidence for his lynching in Nprmal Mini Mafia 1 was that his posting in one of the Newbie Mini games (where he was scum) was exactly the same as his posting in Normal Mini 1. He was actually scum in Newbie and town in Normal. I later realized that he posts the same crap no matter his alignment and is therefore almost impossible to get a read on. For what it's worth, I honestly think if we had lynched him day one in Normal Mini I like I wanted to, town could have won that game. He distracts from scum and focuses attention needlessly on himself with random accusations and completely pointless posts. Check some of his previous games and you will note that 50% of his posts are him telling people that he's going to sleep. Serves nothing other than to muddy the waters and make it harder to hunt scum.
So do I think he's mafia? I have no fucking clue. Guy could be the SK and he would be posting the same.
Would I object to lynching him? Absolutely not. He contributes nothing as a town player and really only hurts town in the long run.
On a side note, Paper is looking townish to me. I'll elaborate further at the end of Day 3 when I can take a look at all his posts for the day....
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On March 09 2012 05:14 Pandain wrote:
hmmmm
>.>
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On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote:Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering. I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role.... Show nested quote +On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Vigilante: You are a Vigilante! Once per game, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit.
I haven't forgotten, in fact I've brought up the possibility of a mafia vig like half a dozen times. Did you even read my posts about determining if there was an SK (and why it's not possible unless we can confirm sandro's claim)?
Here's the deal, I've been reading through Paper's posts. I said before that he was leaning town in my opinion but now I'm not so sure. What I was initially looking at was his consistency:
+ Show Spoiler [lots o' quotes] +Working backwards chronologically: My top scum reads are TheToast, Jackal and Deconduo Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet Jackal has posted no substance at all. His reaction to the Misder lynch was over done. Three people voted Misder: Deconduo, AKCT and Jackal. They all give me a scum vibe Jackal's filter takes 5 seconds to read Jackal - Has posted nothing of substance. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night.
There's clearly a lot of consistancy in pushing Jackal here. Granted that doesn't prove he's town, the whole thing could be a part of a really good strategy to cover himself as the SK. But this seems unlikely, and I think one would be hard pressed to look at the evidence and come up with that conclusion. So from this viewpoint he's looking townish.
But that doesn't explain away his terrible reads:
I can see a bit of a team forming between Decon and Jackal right now.
Now that we've seen Jackal flip, looking through some of these "reads" makes them look a lot like tunneling than actual analysis. Of all the people who've flipped, Paper at some point argued the opposite for:
Palmar is playing weird this game so far. He might be scum.
If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie?
Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit
***Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet *** followed by
***Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet. ***
***The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim? And the SK would have a lot to gain here, by being the one to vote against Sandro (who they think is blue) they could potentially solidify themselves as town and potentially as someone with good anlysis and become relatively safe for the remainder of the game. Paper, Jackle, and AKCT were the only votes not on Sandro day 2....
To me, this radically shifts Paper's possible alignment. However this evidence swings greatly on the validity of Sandro's claim. I said before that we couldn't lynch anyone based only on that given the fact that Sandro was confirmed scum. So, for the moment, I am not comfortable supporting a lynch on Paper based on this. But consider this a strong FOS on him as the SK.
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Switching gears a bit:
On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote:Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering. I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role.... Show nested quote +On February 25 2012 12:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Vigilante: You are a Vigilante! Once per game, starting night 1, you may send in a night hit.
This doesn't mean its scum, but it does make us remember that there are now three possibilities for Paperscraps to be: 1. Serial killer.2. Mafia Vigilante 3. Vigilante Him claiming vigilante in no way makes him town. Rather, we must analyze two things in determining his alignment: 1. His reasoning/motivation behind shooting Jackal 2. His posts/votes this game(Normal Analysis) I'll be posting more once I make sense of everything.....
Pandain, we haven't heard so much as a peep out of you for like 30 hours, and you come back with this fluff-filled post? Why was it necessary to quote the OP? Why was it necessary to quote THE WHOLE description of the Mafia Vig? Like we can't figure out what the Mafia Vig might be?
And what's with that last line (the one I bolded)? In 36 hours and you need more time to "make sense" of things? What the hell have you been doing?
And this post contains not one BUT TWO pointless lists? This reeks of scummy fluff.
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Probulous you broke my train 
Anyway, for Day 3 I think Pandain and Adam are the best votes right now.
While there is a good case against Paper, it really does hinge on Sandro's claim. While I think his claim was real (Probulous made a good point somewhere about this) lynching someone based on it just risks too much in terms of walking into a scum trap. If someone sees something I missed that adds to the evidence then I would say he should be lynched but right now the evidence is so circumstancial....
Bluelightz is.... idk wtf we should do with him. As I said getting a read on him is almost impossible. And if he is town and we lynch him, that't not necessarily bad. He doesn't contribute at all. I just don't know where that fits in terms of lynch priority. There is a decent case for Adam being scum, but a Bluelightz lynch could help town regardless of his alignment (and we could be lucky and he's the SK). And Pandain is shady as fuck.
So I'm a bit lost on what the priority should be right now 
Thoughts?
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On March 09 2012 07:06 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2012 06:56 TheToast wrote:
***The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim? Because the shot could have been blocked by a mafia medic (turned out to be true, if there was a shot). You're making big assumptions here Toast. We have no concrete proof there is a SK. It all rests on whether sandro's claim was a fake claim or not and whether Paper is a Vig (mafia or town). I think Paper is more likely to flip town than mafia or SK. He spotlighted Jackal from the start and then doubted himself on decon. It makes sense that his second choice shot would be Jackal. Now yes this could be a long term mafia play, but we can't know that until we can confirm the existence of a SK.
To the bolded part: I think if the SK shot someone, they didn't die, and then claimed vet it would make sense to believe them. It's would be a gamble but one that could pay off. If Sandro's claim is true and he got shot, I think there is really good evidence against Paper. The way he backed off of Sandro Day 2 when it was clear he was going to be lynched (and that reasoning too, "I have a gut feeling" what kind of reasoning is that?) just seemed strange.
Either way I agree with the fact that the SK's existance and Paper's alighment hinges entirely on Sandro's claim. This is exactly why I said I'm not supporting his lynch Day 3. (Though you were arguing earlier that it was a believable claim) We can't take the risk given what we know now for sure about Sandro.
Anyway re-read my post, I'm essentially arguing the same thing as you on Paper.
I listed all those time he called out Jackal as well (in the spoiler). Without considering Sandro's claim he looks townish. But I said before, I'm going to proceed as though Sandro's claim was real but not use it as the only evidence to lynch someone. That's the situation right here, so FOS: Paper but no vote until I can come up with some other evidence...
Back to the other issue, what do you think should be the D3 lynch priority?
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##Vote: Adam4167
Probulous and Snarfs have both made decent cases against Adam. I still have a big FOS on Pandain and Paper, but it looks like for the moment those those two guys aren't going anywhere. (Day 4 we need to take a really really close look at both of them, at least one is scum and I think there is a good chance the other is the SK...)
As for Adam, while Probulous and Snarfs have brought up a lot of good points, for me the most interesting thing was your Day one attacks on Palmar. You voted Palmar, along with Paper, for lynching Day 1. Then Jackal breaks with everyone else and votes you for lynching day 2. Then Paper kills Jackal Night 2. Convenient, no? Something is off here.
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You missed one Probulous XD
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On March 09 2012 11:30 Probulous wrote:
My vote, you didn't count it lol.
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On March 09 2012 13:20 Snarfs wrote:
Pandain, why are you so sure deconduo is town?
I'm wondering about Pandain's comments myself.. Decondou's posting all game has been reletively solid and townish, so why has Pandain suddenly focused on him now? Look at these quotes from Pandain:
Decondou I think your town and value your opinion, what do you make of paperscraps claim?
If we have a medic, protect decondou or me.
If me and decondou were scum we would've won by now.
This last one is the most bizzaire. I would point out that with 2kp potential per day/night (lynch and kill) and assuming between 10-12 non mafia, it's not even theoretically possible for scum to have won by now. Either way, all these quotes are really over the top. It almost seems like Pandain is trying really hard to set him self up for something, whether that's a blue claim (a fake blue claim) or maybe a vig hit? He was really adament in arguing that Paper was the mafia vig and not town. What if Pandain is really the mafia vig and is trying to set himself up for a blue claim? (again)
Idk, I can't really make sense of all this. But either way Pandain's posting is shady as hell.
On March 09 2012 20:54 Bluelightz wrote:I don't even know what to post right now but im gonna post also @AKCT
wut.
So you are just admitting now that you plan to spam the thread with pointless posts.
.... excuse me for a moment...
*Slams head on desk*
*Slams head on desk*
*Slams head on desk*
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On March 10 2012 12:11 Probulous wrote:Wow  I guess this confirms the existence of a SK then.
Just wondering, what makes you so sure there isn't a Mafia vig? That is still a distinct possibility....
I'll still go with what I said before and say we need to proceed as if there is an SK, but there is still the chance there is not. Unless you know something specific....
On March 10 2012 12:23 Probulous wrote:
Decon that epic reads post from Snarfs is why I think he is town. It is pretty logical though I disagree on a few points most importantly it is transparent.
Given there is a SK the sandroba hit was probably real. Paperscraps' vig claim was real which means the SK must have doublestacked on either Palmar or Jackal. We are at 6/14 with two scum (probably based on balance, is this likely) and a SK. If we miss-lynch today we lose. Half the players left should be on your suspicious list.
I think Snarfs is town, I am town. That leaves three lynch targets in Decon, Bluelightz, Toast and AKCT. Filters how we come.
Again, what makes you so sure SK double stakced on Jakal or Palmar? If the SK exists, they could have chosen to not submit a night hit. Strange that you would jump to conclusions....
Given that the SK would be pushing scum for lynching all game, it would be really easy to appear townish.....
FOS: Probulous
Re-read this man's filter people.....
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Why would you assume there is a double stack instead of assuming there is a Mafia vig? You jumped to conclusions really fast after the day post. Only person to have put any pressure on you so far this game was Adam, and now he's dead.
And three posts across 8 minutes? I love how you start out all calm about it then get more verbose in each successive post.
Not confirmed anything yet, but this is enough to make me suspicious...
Surprisingly, no one has asked the really crucial question here; why did Paperscraps get killed last night? A vig who has used his shot is not threat to scum, and if anything he was pulling a lot of attention away from the SK. So why was he killed?
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Prob this is ridiculous, Bluelightz calls me out as scum and suddenly I'm the #2 suspect??? Maybe you are working in tandem with him? Bussing Bluelightz for ability to take me down?
Why is my insistence that there isn't an SK strange? There is still the very real possibility that there is a mafia vig who hit last night. The thing that's strange is your insistence that there IS and SK. The only way you could know that is if you WERE the SK or if you had some inside information that sandro's claim was real. So tell me, which is it?
I didn't FOS you for the hell of it. If we have an SK we need to figure out who it is and they need to die tomorrow. No one besides Adam has put any pressure on you all game, that's simply not healthy for town to have a completely 100% confirmed town player. All to easy for SK to hide amongst town. And after I call you out, suddenly I'm scum and you use that as evidence against me? I'm only becoming more suspicious of you Probulous...
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Hey Wiggles Daylight savings time has me screwed up. The day ends in 1 hour right? You said before it would end at 11KST but that would only be a 47 hour day...
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##Unvote
##Vote: Probulous
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Lol Bluelightz, you are a scum's dream come true hahaha
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True, especially since you're the medic who's going to die tonight.
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EPT
