EPTStorm Mafia - Page 62
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On February 25 2012 19:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Given that your extra vote was never factored into the vote as far as I can see it at the moment I am going to call bullshit on your claim. That's a weird conclusion to come to. Rather than to ask him to submit his Floridian vote right now to confirm his role, you're going to accuse him of fake claiming? I find it strange that you instantly jump to the idea that he is a liar, rather than attempting to get more information on the situation. Blazinghand can you confirm that your role shows up in the vote count? That being said, Floridian is generally a scum role. nuke, I don't ever recall you playing this poorly. I think you would be a terrific vig shot (in addition to chaoser) if you are going to refuse to play. Do you have an explanation? Something of note from the claim is the difference in prpl's response from day one to day two: On February 23 2012 03:17 prplhz wrote: I don't think that redFF is scum because his claim timing and his lack of activity was announced in the thread beforehand, his activity and putting-himself-outthere seems very townie. The wagon is also rolling too easy. On February 25 2012 18:20 prplhz wrote: Going to vote Blazinghand. I don't see any reason to believe his claim. ##Vote: Blazinghand On February 25 2012 18:26 prplhz wrote: If you think your claim so far is enough to convince everybody else that you're town then you shouldn't claim any more. I doubt it so I see no reason why you shouldn't claim everything you have. With red, he is willing to believe the claim immediately and defend him from the lynch. Now with blazing, he shows no willingness to trust the claim and votes for him before he could even clairify his role. In fact, this is the first time in the game where he actually commits to the blazinghand bandwagon. He states earlier how the red lynch is rolling too easy, yet doesn't consider the same idea for the blazinghand lynch. Four hours until the lynch, after I eat I may be writing up a full case against prpl after I finally get around to reading through blazinghand and RoL. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On February 26 2012 02:55 Toadesstern wrote: That's what it was in TL Mafia XLVIII: + Show Spoiler + With 24 players alive, it takes 13 to lynch List of Voters Hier (14) syllogism Toadesstern Anonymous Palmar Radfield syllogism Erandorr redFF sandroba Refallen Zephirdd Palmar Anonymous Toadesstern Lanaia Jackal58 vaderseven prplhz I just copy & pasted the text... some of the votes are struck out, that's why some people are on that list twice :p Simply doublevoting would prove that he is a floridian but given what I said that's not making a difference. If his breadcrumb was any good I'd be willing to say it's a townie for sure but that breadcrum he quoted is literally the worst breadcrumb I've ever seen. Even now that I've got someone pointing at it and telling me 'there it is' I'm not really sure of it. That could be anything and for me it'is just not a breadcrumb. So it all comes down to wifom imo OR it really is a hidden, passive 2nd vote and there's no possibility to prove it. Do you realise that an organised and sometimes even an unorganised scumteam will deliberately breadcrumb roles to support claims later in the game? Do you also realise that there is next to no inherent value in breadcrumbing a double vote ability? As town bread crumbing such a role increases the chance that scum will see it and kill you. As town or scum a breadcrumb makes you claim more believable. Bread crumbing is usually a way for you to hide results from checks so that if you die suddenly town can see your flip and find your breadcrumbs and work out your checks. A breadcrumb demonstrates that you thought forward so that you could claim later on. + Show Spoiler [lifted from mafia scum] + "A Breadcrumb is a veiled reference to your own role, actions, or results. It's a form of steganography that allows you to reveal sensitive information without making it evident to everyone that you're doing so. Another advantage to breadcrumbing is that it provides credence to any claim you make - if you claim to be a particular role and show a breadcrumb from very early in the game that reinforces your claim, it directly implies that you have been preparing to make this claim from the beginning of the game. Breadcrumbing has its problems, though. Many times, they cannot be reliably read unless the crumbing player points them out, and if there are no breadcrumbs at all players may waste their time trying to find them. In addition, scum have been known to breadcrumb roles as well; if the role they breadcrumbed became inconvenient to claim, they simply do not point them out later. Last, an obvious breadcrumb will draw the scum's attention and place that player at the top of the list of players they have an interest in killing overNight." A breadcrumb has bugger all to do with your alignment. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 26 2012 03:05 syllogism wrote: I think vote counts have to be reliable and as such roles with additional voting power are either completely transparent (x2 next to the player with the power) or semi-transparent (anonymous vote). He claims that his power is passive and thus it doesn't need to be activated, so one of these two should be true. It seems more likely that his power is not passive, though it seems rather pointless to lie about that at this point. I'm also leaning towards the conclusion that any extra voting power role in this setup would be a scum role, if it's a 14-4 setup with no third party. So you basicly say you think it's a townie because a lie about that makes no sense as mafia but because it's most likely a 14-4 setup it has to be a mafia role? I get your point but that sounds so weird. What if it is not a 14-4 setup but instead something like a 12-4-2 setup (Town / mafia / 3rd party)? Would that change your conclusion? I'm asking because I'm leaning town based on the assumption that he's not smart enough to wifom the shit out of us like that as mafia. Like you said, it's really unlikely that he as a mafia doesn't know about his role, especially if there's people arround telling him how it usually works. That sounds so unlikely and for me the only reasonable case in which he flips mafia would be him knowing how his role works playing the noob-card. He's gone now, can't answer, that plays into that conclusion as well but I really got to say according to Occam's razor it should be a townie how has no clue because setting this whole thing up is so incredible ridiculous. But than again, is his situation going to get better in near future? Even if he proves that he actually is a floridian that tells nothing about his alignment because the only plausible mafia case imo is him setting this whole thing up and we're not going to be able to look into his brain and see if it really was a mistake or some shenanigans. | ||
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syllogism
Finland5948 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 26 2012 03:13 layabout wrote: Do you realise that an organised and sometimes even an unorganised scumteam will deliberately breadcrumb roles to support claims later in the game? Do you also realise that there is next to no inherent value in breadcrumbing a double vote ability? As town bread crumbing such a role increases the chance that scum will see it and kill you. As town or scum a breadcrumb makes you claim more believable. Bread crumbing is usually a way for you to hide results from checks so that if you die suddenly town can see your flip and find your breadcrumbs and work out your checks. A breadcrumb demonstrates that you thought forward so that you could claim later on. + Show Spoiler [lifted from mafia scum] + "A Breadcrumb is a veiled reference to your own role, actions, or results. It's a form of steganography that allows you to reveal sensitive information without making it evident to everyone that you're doing so. Another advantage to breadcrumbing is that it provides credence to any claim you make - if you claim to be a particular role and show a breadcrumb from very early in the game that reinforces your claim, it directly implies that you have been preparing to make this claim from the beginning of the game. Breadcrumbing has its problems, though. Many times, they cannot be reliably read unless the crumbing player points them out, and if there are no breadcrumbs at all players may waste their time trying to find them. In addition, scum have been known to breadcrumb roles as well; if the role they breadcrumbed became inconvenient to claim, they simply do not point them out later. Last, an obvious breadcrumb will draw the scum's attention and place that player at the top of the list of players they have an interest in killing overNight." A breadcrumb has bugger all to do with your alignment. I am aware of that fact. It's about all those things coming together. All those things I've mentioned about him are wifom and could be interpreted as both confused townie (or whatever you want to call it) or a mafia setting this thing up. The more things we got like that the more likely it is that he actually is a townie imo. It's like a giant puzzle. Sure he could have set this up, sure he could have lied about something else but if you got several things like that I'm going to assume that it's the one conclusion that explains all of those issues without a shitload of other explanations to why he actually did that. So far it's not enough for me to say he's a townie, maybe a decent breadcrumb would have changed that. I'm just asking myself if he'd do that set-up thing as mafia right now. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
It's possible that he's going to flip town in the end but I'd say it's the best lynch we got. ##vote BH | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
lynch VE read my case! | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On February 26 2012 03:12 kitaman27 wrote: That's a weird conclusion to come to. Rather than to ask him to submit his Floridian vote right now to confirm his role, you're going to accuse him of fake claiming? I find it strange that you instantly jump to the idea that he is a liar, rather than attempting to get more information on the situation. Blazinghand can you confirm that your role shows up in the vote count? Just got home and to respond to this, look at the current vote update by palmar. BH specifically said his ability was passive. As such RoL should have 4 votes not 3. He clearly has 3 beside RoL's name. There is obviously the chance that Palmar has opted to not show the vote be it with a x2 beside his name or an anonymous vote, but as I have never seen or heard of the floridian worked that way I will call bs on bh's claim still. My reasoning in part obviously may be wrong based on the setup being different, however I find it hard to believe palmar would include roles that activate and do what they do yet there is never a link to the role use. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On February 26 2012 03:34 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Just got home and to respond to this, look at the current vote update by palmar. BH specifically said his ability was passive. As such RoL should have 4 votes not 3. He clearly has 3 beside RoL's name. There is obviously the chance that Palmar has opted to not show the vote be it with a x2 beside his name or an anonymous vote, but as I have never seen or heard of the floridian worked that way I will call bs on bh's claim still. My reasoning in part obviously may be wrong based on the setup being different, however I find it hard to believe palmar would include roles that activate and do what they do yet there is never a link to the role use. We aren't told if we're hit, we aren't told if we're role blocked' we aren't told if we saved. We didn't even get a flip. You seeing a pattern yet? | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
Yeah it's a pretty big assumption but I really don't like people like risk and Chaoser. For all I know those two could very well end up being modkilled. Of course there's no such thing as activity modkill but not voting for someone will still be a modkill and neither of those 2 has voted. I'd say we lynch one of those 2 if one of them shows up and votes without a reason or just a oneliner the very next day. I don't see a reason to lynch into possible modkills right now so I won't suggest switching votes. Tyrran and Kita are somewhat the same because they haven't voted yet, they don't post a lot but they do post from time to time. Jackal hasn't voted either but has at least some presence in this thread like Kita and Tyrran and well, he's known for doing this lurkish style and the other ones I've mentioned are more extreme imo. | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 26 2012 04:47 risk.nuke wrote: ##vote Blazinghand ... That guy needs to be dead. Not a mention here, no explanasion, no reasoning, nothing. If risk.nuke ends up being town I'll eat my hat... and the only hat I've got is a big one with feathers and all that shit because of some oktoberfest-like festival. | ||
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Tyrran
France777 Posts
On February 26 2012 04:48 Toadesstern wrote: What about lynching people who aren't even playing this game? I've got a feeling we've been wrong on most of our scummy reads so far and that's why mafia is chilling and not even posting in this thread. Yeah it's a pretty big assumption but I really don't like people like risk and Chaoser. For all I know those two could very well end up being modkilled. Of course there's no such thing as activity modkill but not voting for someone will still be a modkill and neither of those 2 has voted. I'd say we lynch one of those 2 if one of them shows up and votes without a reason or just a oneliner the very next day. I don't see a reason to lynch into possible modkills right now so I won't suggest switching votes. Tyrran and Kita are somewhat the same because they haven't voted yet, they don't post a lot but they do post from time to time. Jackal hasn't voted either but has at least some presence in this thread like Kita and Tyrran and well, he's known for doing this lurkish style and the other ones I've mentioned are more extreme imo. Like RoL is actually playing the game. The post he made during day 2 are discussing the redFF lynch. Who would discuss this as town. RedFF was lynched, we have to move on, not continue discuss this. This is scum play trying to divert us from real issue. I thougth i voted against him from my phone, but apparently it did not go through. Nothing in his play had made me change my mind. ##Vote ROL | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On February 26 2012 04:48 Toadesstern wrote: What about lynching people who aren't even playing this game? I've got a feeling we've been wrong on most of our scummy reads so far and that's why mafia is chilling and not even posting in this thread. Yeah it's a pretty big assumption but I really don't like people like risk and Chaoser. For all I know those two could very well end up being modkilled. Of course there's no such thing as activity modkill but not voting for someone will still be a modkill and neither of those 2 has voted. I'd say we lynch one of those 2 if one of them shows up and votes without a reason or just a oneliner the very next day. I don't see a reason to lynch into possible modkills right now so I won't suggest switching votes. Tyrran and Kita are somewhat the same because they haven't voted yet, they don't post a lot but they do post from time to time. Jackal hasn't voted either but has at least some presence in this thread like Kita and Tyrran and well, he's known for doing this lurkish style and the other ones I've mentioned are more extreme imo. So you have no confidence in your reads would you rather just lynch random lurkers instead? Who is "we", the town? You think we've all been wrong? That's discouraging and unhelpful. It doesn't matter if you have "a feeling" that everything is wrong. If you have a feeling that BH or RoL or VE or anything is the wrong lynch then go back, do some reading, and think critically about what's going on. Besides displaying a complete lack of confidence you're not doing anything besides pointing out who is lurking which is something everyone should be aware of, all they'd have to do even is to just see who has or hasn't voted by looking at the voting thread. Your lack of confidence is really alarming to me and I'm not sure yet whether to pin you as town who just got his self-esteem devastated by AC or scum trying to be active without being noticed or controversial. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 26 2012 05:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote: So you have no confidence in your reads would you rather just lynch random lurkers instead? Who is "we", the town? You think we've all been wrong? That's discouraging and unhelpful. It doesn't matter if you have "a feeling" that everything is wrong. If you have a feeling that BH or RoL or VE or anything is the wrong lynch then go back, do some reading, and think critically about what's going on. Besides displaying a complete lack of confidence you're not doing anything besides pointing out who is lurking which is something everyone should be aware of, all they'd have to do even is to just see who has or hasn't voted by looking at the voting thread. Your lack of confidence is really alarming to me and I'm not sure yet whether to pin you as town who just got his self-esteem devastated by AC or scum trying to be active without being noticed or controversial. risk is in this game, he is actually playing and voting, yet he refuses to talk to us. I don't know about Chaoser yet because he still hasn't voted. Give me a reason why they should refuse to play this game as town? Just a single one. Clearly he's here and is actively lurking. He's not Foolishness who's doing that on purpose to make himself a bad night target and ends up giving us a dead on correct mafia list by the end of day-3. He's not one of the top5 (or whatver) townplayers on TL.net that everyone fears. There is literally no reason to do what he's doing if he's town. I don't even know why you're talking about my reads and my, according to you, little convidence making me look weird. I never said we should voteswitch yet. I just pointet out that those guys are ACTIVLY playing anti-town. That's it. Why do you have a problem with me pointing that out? | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Looking at r.n's filter he's offering very little compared to what he had to bring to the table in Arkham City which makes me suspicious. He didn't troll or anything like that in AC and I see a lot of commentary on things not relevant to finding scum when he was pretty serious about that in AC. Chaoser seems to be totally busy and just uninvolved, I'm inclined to think he's town but he needs to post a lot more as soon as he has the time. Jackal is playing very reservedly which is not totally normal but does not alarm me. The few posts kitaman has made are posts that I'm mostly alright with. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Of the two players up for lynch, I think RoL is more likely to flip scum. He has only one real contribution today and that contribution includes flawed logic. On February 23 2012 11:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: It's going to be interesting to examine the last few hours of todays lynch since it seemed to generate a bunch of activity. After the almost last minute switch during the day one lynch, RoL decides to examine the results of the switch. He comes to the following conclusions: On February 25 2012 01:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: He's soft defending RedFF by trying to switch over to BC last minute while still saying he thinks RedFF is still possibly scum. If you think he's scum then why switch to BC? It doesn't make sense, then when the town decides on RedFF he marches right back over flip flopping. On February 25 2012 22:54 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: So yeah, I think RedFF was scum because his behavior before his claim was scummy. His actual claim was really bad in an antitown Now according to RoL's statement, he believes redff and DrH are scumbuddies and that DrH was attempting to save red at the last second. However, DrH was also the person to essentially seal the deal with the redFF lynch when he switched off BC. Therefore, you are arguing that DrH hammered his own scumbuddy and then covered up the results with a no flip. If he is indeed bussing, why is it being covered up? He would look like a hero with a red flip. There is very little reason for a scum player to be voting another scum player (let alone the deciding vote) with no alignment reveal. If anything it makes DrH/BC look connected, not DrH/red. I find is weird that out of all the events that took place on day one, this was the conclusion you came to. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 26 2012 06:08 DoctorHelvetica wrote: They could be busy. Lurking is not really the same as actively playing anti-town. I don't have a problem with you pointing out lurkers if you're going somewhere with it or trying to pressure them into being more active. I have a problem with you adding doubt to what's happening to town and basically listing lurkers with a ton of fluff. You were right to call out risk.nuke however, I just checked his filter. Looking at r.n's filter he's offering very little compared to what he had to bring to the table in Arkham City which makes me suspicious. He didn't troll or anything like that in AC and I see a lot of commentary on things not relevant to finding scum when he was pretty serious about that in AC. Chaoser seems to be totally busy and just uninvolved, I'm inclined to think he's town but he needs to post a lot more as soon as he has the time. Jackal is playing very reservedly which is not totally normal but does not alarm me. The few posts kitaman has made are posts that I'm mostly alright with. Risk has been sitting in irc for the last couple of days playing irc mafia and bw-mafia instead. Yes if that happens it IS activly lurking and it IS activly playing anti-town. I agree on Chaoser. That guy seems to be totally busy, he hasn't even posted this cycle so we'll see about this. The chances of him being modkilled are quite high, so no need to talk about him unless he actually comes back voting for someone. | ||
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