EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII
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MidnightGladius
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MidnightGladius
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Notes on the setup: Now that there are 15 starting players, the mafia:innocent ratio is rather uncommon, at 4:11, favoring the mafia, compared to 3  in Normal Mini Mafia I, 3 in Newbie Mini Mafia II, and 3 in Newbie Mini Mafia I. On the last occasion that the town faced unfavorable odds, Newbie Mini Mafia III, the lack of mafia power roles and relative abundance of innocent power roles helped to balance the setup, and I think that it will be the same here. Considering that the town gets a minimum of one extra mislynch compared to the standard setup, I think that the extra information will be especially helpful. Easy enough, right? No need for lurking, bashing, or spamming; I'm hoping for a great game.Trust in Bayes! | ||
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MidnightGladius
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Silly coding ._. 3 => 3 : 9In response to DoYouHas, this is my second real game here. The earlier ones were way too large and chaotic to be of much use. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 17 2012 10:29 DoYouHas wrote: Newbie Mini Mafia III was 4/9, that is very different from 4/11. I see the normal mafia to town ratio as being 1/4. As such I think we are pretty close and cannot speculate as to the number of roles or what roles are in the game. The difference is not trivial. With 11 players, in the worst-case scenario where we mislynch every day, we lose one full day/night cycle (as the remaining 3 players are simply killed in the endgame). Even if we don't fail to that extent, there's still more significantly more pressure on us at every stage. Additionally, consider that the setup was originally balanced at 4:12, with whatever role distribution was present at the time. After the population odds were changed to 4:11, it makes sense to also alter the role distribution to re-balance it. Also, as my last post did not make it clear, my previous game here was Newbie Mini Mafia III. On February 17 2012 10:35 jaj22 wrote: Oh hey, an early start. I guess that means I'll be here for the night/day posts for a change. This is the first full game I've played. I replaced into Election Mafia as scum: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291720&user=52329 And TL Mafia L as vanilla town: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=253716&user=52329 Feel free to check out my meta. I don't know a good way of starting discussion on day 1, so here's some obligatory lurker-lynch stuff. I hate lurkers. Don't be a lurker. Other than the point that lurking is thoroughly anti-town, why bother playing the game if you're not going to post? Do I want to lynch lurkers on day 1? At a gut level, absolutely. It's not necessarily optimal though. If we have someone who's both active and scummy, lynching them is a better choice. However, that's much more likely if we don't let people lurk, so it's important to maintain a real threat. I've been told by veterans here that it's possible to use behavioral analysis to lynch mafia on the first day, but I honestly am not sure how to go about it. Hopefully, activity will be high enough to render this issue moot, but I have no regrets with lynching lurkers. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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The difference between 4:11 and 4:12 is not trivial. To a greater extent, the difference between 4 : 9 and 4:11 is. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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As you obviously can't ascertain anyone's alignment through this poll, and the polling isn't closed only to players of this game, what exactly about the mafia were you planning on studying? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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However, I don't really get the feeling that he's scum, just new. I don't want to make the same mistake I made last game, when I was certain that questionable Day 1 play by itself meant scum. EchelonTee, you shouldn't be so upset  If you claim that your "he's posting the scum QT" threat was a joke, then you're expecting us to let you get away with saying anything you want, as long as you say that you're not being serious. Secondly, you claim that you never accused sl00sh of being mafia, but there's no denying that he would be posting in the scum QT if and only if he were truly mafia. You're not looking too friendly at the moment, and I have to wonder what might be on your mind. You've had some experience, so I expect better pro-town play from you. And I will be watching. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On the topic of lynching or not: there is no reason not to lynch Day 1. It is the most reliable way for the town to go forward, as we can then begin looking at voting patterns and doing behavioral analysis. If we don't lynch, we're in basically the same spot during Day 2, except with one fewer innocent player. As to who we lynch, I say that we put pressure on lurkers and threaten them with a lynch if they don't contribute. It establishes a basic precedent on the quality of content that we expect out of certain players, and then we can take their future posts and make some contrasts. The common argument against lynching a lurker is that mafia will only have to pretend to contribute, or stay just above the least active players. I say that that's fully acceptable, as both of those behaviors will be red flags in the days to come, especially if the town keeps up and stays consistent with activity levels. With that said, I'm going to put my vote on MannerKiss. He has done nothing for us. MannerKiss, here's your opportunity to show us that you have an interest in helping us win this game. Who is your #1 target so far? ##Vote: MannerKiss | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 18 2012 06:14 gumshoe wrote: In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by [quote=gumshoe]There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly.[/quote] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss ##Vote: Gumshoe | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 18 2012 09:31 jaj22 wrote: Ok, screw it. I'm making a case. MidnightGladius: 1. Starts off with a number of completely useless posts on setup. Didn't even do the probability. 2. Makes the usual post on ET vs Sloosh and Gumshoe's poll. Yeah, so did everyone else. 3. Votes the easy target (MannerKiss) with an elaborate lurker-lynch reasoning. 4. Votes the easy target (Gumshoe) because he spams and sucks at statistics. That's it. Low post count apart from the setup filler. No interest in anyone in except the easy targets, and contributing next to nothing to town as a result. I don't think he posted much more in Newbie Mini III, but he had the excuse of being blue there, and it was a slower game (too damn slow). He should know better. Probably much too early to be putting people in bold red, but I'm bored waiting for all the lurkers to post. You're not even going to vote for me? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 18 2012 09:42 MannerKiss wrote: Sorry i've been absent, work related stuff. Trying to catch up on the thread. Doyouhas pretty strong townie feeling to me. gumshoe - trying my best to overcome some scummy feeling from the earliest post, but it seems to have cleared up a little since the poll. Dimmuklok giving me the strongest scum vibe of all so far, (and not just because he's aggressive toward me). ET - also giving off a townie feeling i'll catch up on everyone else when i get home this evening Welcome back! The last we saw you, DYH was your first scumread. Now, he's "pretty strong townie"? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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You and jaj22 are both not making any sense to me. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 18 2012 10:37 Janaan wrote: Midnight, what are YOUR reads right now? You put forward MannerKiss as a pressure vote, then change to Gumshoe one post later because you didn't like his statistical analysis. Do you have any other suspicions? Any decent town reads? MannerKiss is actively lurking and needs to step it up or die. Some of the other lurkers are active candidates for modkills at this point, but he's not, and that means that we should pressure him. However, gumshoe's posting is actively hurting us, and while I'm not certain that he's mafia, I'm growing increasingly convinced. I would consider both of these votes to be pressure votes. I'd honestly rather pressure gumshoe to quiet down and concentrate than pressure MannerKiss to speak up :D My strongest other scumread lies on EchelonTee, for the reasons I mentioned earlier: His sequence of 1) being glad that there was activity 2) accusing me without a case 3) saying he would provide a case 4) telling DYH to support my lynch 5) not presenting a case 6) leaving the discussion seemed really suspicious to me. I'm not going to offer you town reads, because I don't feel that they help the town find and lynch mafia, and they let the mafia know who to target to slow down the town's momentum. If I think a player is town, that doesn't mean that we're in agreement on any particular read, and vice versa. On February 18 2012 10:56 jaj22 wrote: So much for the activity. Neither DimmuKlok's defence nor Steveling's reads have shown up. MannerKiss produced one post with town reads and the obvious target. TKHawkins and Zelblade haven't shown up at all. MidnightGladius apparently thinks that telling people they make no sense is a valid defence. C'mon guys, you can't all be scum. I'm off to bed. Hoping that someone pulls an awesome town-leader performance overnight and gets a proper vote going, because it's going to be seriously tough to get a majority on scum at this rate. You apparently think that nonsensical attacks should be taken seriously. If nothing else, vote with the proper formatting so that it will get counted properly. You're missing a colon at the moment. On February 18 2012 12:23 gumshoe wrote: Wall of text. That's the kind of posting that I really don't to have to deal with in the lategame :S | ||
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MidnightGladius
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1) My accusations against you have grown in intensity without reason 2) I haven't contributed significantly to town Let's be very clear here. You say that your posting has been getting better, but I strongly disagree. Early on, you had a bad plan. Then, you posted shaky reasoning for your plan. Then, you admitted to lying and misrepresenting the intentions of your original plan. Then, you started posting long lists and walls of text full of point-by-point analysis and confirmation bias. You can't just keep doing this. As to my levels of contribution, you're using that argument in a flawed way. I'm responding to my accusers, presenting my thoughts, and trying to make my positions as clear as possible. The town will have plenty of evidence about my behavior to go through in the coming days. What more can you reasonably expect of me? EchelonTee, you're free to do as you please, but when you say "More to come after this message," that creates some expectations. When you fail to live up to those expectations, that confuses me. As for jaj's case, what of it? I'm not contributing? Really? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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Steven's no lynch was a dumb idea, he said so, and we're moving on. He hasn't tried to dwell on the topic, and so I don't consider that suspicious. DimmKlok's switch? He hasn't even voted yet, so I'm not sure what you're talking about. He is rather quiet, though, and that leads into what I have to say about the lurkers: they have said nothing, so I have nothing to build a case from. If they keep quiet, they'll be modkilled and replaced, and we'll go from there. If they speak up, then I can look at them. Mislynching is gives away so much information in terms of voting patterns and people's posting behavior, for and against. Mafia night kills only generate WIFOM, and there's not much more to be said about that. Right now, we're dominating the thread, and not in a good way. It's creating long argumentative posts and stifling actual discussion as we just bash our heads against the wall. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 19 2012 03:34 jaj22 wrote: 1. If you don't believe me on that point, you can PM Palmar and ask him. Or you can just read Palmar's town play. 2. That's not a pressure vote. I think he's scum. You can tell because I wrote a case on him with his name in bold red text. While his contribution to town is no lower than a lot of other players, he's the one who should know better. I'll be writing another post covering his play since my case shortly. The flaw here is that as soon as we say that "behavior A is scummy," and that "behavior B is not scummy," there is nothing to prevent the mafia from taking your cue and thus avoiding town suspicion. As you seem to know what you're talking about with regard to statistics, you have to admit that P(aggression|scum) is always non-zero. If you really think I'm scum, then vote for me. Actually vote for me, using the proper format so that it will be counted correctly, and so that the evidence will be there for further analysis. I don't like how hesitant you've been on actually pursuing your case against me, since if you had any conviction at all you would have done this right from the start. For what it's worth, though, I don't think that you're scum, just a bored innocent player trying to provoke some kind of discussion, as you said at the beginning of your case. That's all well and good, but if you actually want me to respond substantively, you need to give me something I can actually respond to. I'm much more worried about EchelonTee, considering that he came back and still hasn't followed through on his original promise to make a case on me. He referred to your case instead of providing reasoning of his own, and then told me to "respond or die." Right. Personally, I think he's waiting for someone else to take the hint and push first, much as he prompted you. His behavior lacks accountability to the town and to himself, and that's far more damning to me than any "flashy or aggressive play" heuristic. ##Unvote: gumshoe ##Vote: EchelonTee To provide an explanation for my switch, I made my views on gumshoe clear earlier. Unlike most Day 1 pressure votes where we try to get someone to talk, I just wanted him to post more coherently and settle down. When he still continued to make a ruckus, I began to get concerned. His last few posts have been much better, and after sleeping on it and re-reading his filter, I just can't see his behavior in the context of an informed mafia team effort. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 19 2012 04:50 jaj22 wrote: You're missing the point, possibly deliberately. People are using ET's style as the primary reason that he's scum, which is invalid unless P(aggression|scum) is much greater than 27%, which my experience suggests is not remotely true. If people want to argue that ET is scum, they should use valid reasoning. This is a valid reason. Unfortunately, it's also a very common thing for flashy and aggressive town players to do, so if that's all you have, it's not a good enough reason to lynch. Zbot doesn't need the colon. My vote counted. Anyway, I'm having a crisis of confidence so I'm going to eat something and then re-read. Fair enough. I happen to think that P(aggression|scum) is much higher than 27%, to the extent that I'm not comfortable using it as a heuristic. And if that's not a good enough reason to lynch EchelonTee, then... what is your "good enough" reason to lynch me? I've posted a lot since your first case against me. What in those posts reinforces your suspicions of me? On February 19 2012 04:50 Mattchew wrote: Hey guys... I have read a little but am about to go to Atlantic City for the night. I read through the top 3's filters (ET Dimmukok and Midnight) and I think that Midnight should be the lynch today. ##vote: MidnightGladius You're basically saying that you won't be able to provide any justification until after today's lynch. Are you going to give any reasoning at all for suspecting me, or are you just going to enjoy your free vote with no strings attached? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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To DYH: My one-liners were in response to obviously empty posts. There was nothing for me to say, but I wanted to let them know that I was there and ready to respond to more thorough allegations. When they never followed up with anything substantive, I had nothing more to say. I'm going to read the rest of your post now. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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MidnightGladius
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1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless. 2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer? 3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes. 4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take. 5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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Mattchew, I thought you wouldn't be around. Why are you voting for me? | ||
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On February 19 2012 08:13 MidnightGladius wrote: EchelonTee: 1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless. 2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer? 3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes. 4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take. 5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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1. Me 2. zelblade 3. jaj22 4. Mattchew 5. Janaan 6. gumshoe We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes. Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess. | ||
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##Unvote: EchelonTee ##Vote: DimmuKlok | ||
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I still don't have replies from: - gumshoe - Mattchew - Janaan gumshoe was active all of yesterday, and now he suddenly decides to disappear? At the most important time? And then Mattchew pops into the thread, posts a one-liner, and vanishes again? When he said earlier that he wouldn't be back until after the lynch? Christ in buckets. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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I'm feeling really suspicious towards Mattchew right now. After replacing in for MannerKiss, he claimed that he wouldn't be active until Sunday, conveniently after the first day deadline. This absolves him of responsibility for the first lynch, but instead of voting for a lurker, he places his vote on me, without any justification. Then he returns for this jewel of a post: ~30 minutes before the deadline. Not only does this directly contradict his earlier post, but he also didn't follow up on his reasoning for voting me. Then, and this is the big issue I have with him: he disappears for the deadline, leaving his vote on me when it was unclear whether we'd be able to get a lynch at all. It's obvious that he hasn't just logged off, either, as he makes a post in the Werewolves thread 7 minutes later. Why did he lie? Why did he fail to explain his vote against me? Why did he leave again, threatening to leave the town without a lynch? It's unfortunate that I can't vote for Mattchew now, because I would strongly favor doing so. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote: I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so. You're misinterpreting why I'm suspicious. 1. It's not that he voted for me, but rather that he voted for an active player (even admitting to reading my filter), without providing any reasons. If he had time to read a filter, how would he not have time to provide even a few reasons? 2. Mattchew could have easily justified his posting patterns, but didn't. If he's still here, then I invite him to just explain his decision to vote for me. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 19 2012 09:45 EchelonTee wrote: Fair enough, I do agree that it's a bit strange that Midnight did not want to pursue me further. 5 votes were on me, he had something rolling if he truly believed me scum. So, that DoYouHas character, eh. The same goes for you. Instead, you chose to play DOTA? | ||
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He has been awfully quiet and detached. I certainly would like him to speak up. | ||
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Alderan's behavior strikes me as strange for a few broad reasons, and there are some details that also don't fit. He is the first to nominate DimmuKlok as our lurker candidate of choice, but the fact that he actually went ahead and made a "case" - a point-by-point analysis of only three posts - is completely superfluous. PBPA is never helpful, as Alderan should know, considering that he's had two games of playing experience and has read through several others. He soft-defends gumshoe, claiming that his play is too elaborate to be scum, and that the town's attention on him is "unnecessary." In addition, he says to look at those pressuring gumshoe (Steve and I), but he never follows through on that. Then, after the lynch, he says that he's going to be doing vote analysis, which sounds like a great idea, but then that also never materializes. He has since provided a null read on DYH and nothing else. In its totality, Alderan's posts are lacking in what I consider to be actual contributions to the town, and the way he pushed DimmuKlok seemed much too emphatic compared to the rest of his reads he's made so far. He hasn't followed up on several of his claims, and has instead provided several bits of fluff, like "stay active when accused." Now would be a good time to take your own advice. My other headaches remain: 1) gumshoe: He continues not to take advice, despite getting even more of it recently, writing huge walls of text full of WIFOM and jumping to more conclusions than I can count. My doubts really hinge on whether I think the mafia team would dare let one of their members play so carelessly, but the fact is that they very well could, so I don't think that that's a valid line of defense. My intuition tells me that he's town, but the actual evidence for his innocence just isn't there. 2) Mattchew: I acknowledge that players getting replaced in at this time of the game have a really high chance of being innocent, but two things stick out to me. One, that heuristic applies to players modkilled for inactivity, and MannerKiss was not modkilled, only replaced. Secondly, Mattchew's play since joining the game has not been reassuring at all. When Adam4167 replaced into NMM3, he had the advantage of being able to look at everything with a fresh set of eyes, not having to deal with tunneling, and as a result, he made some great contributions to town play. Mattchew, on the other hand, has barely improved on MannerKiss' original posting. I'm willing to hear him out, but he has a lot to answer for. EchelonTee, I just reread your filter, and I really think that I'm running the risk of tunneling you :/. I'm going to look at some other players now, but I will come back later, with hopefully a fresh perspective on things. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 20 2012 08:10 Janaan wrote: I was hoping to get your thoughts on DYH, now that he's responded to accusations. Are you still suspicious? In fact, you say that you were actually more suspicious of DYH than DimmuKlok before the vote, but you never actually posted any analysis on him at all. In fact, you only have one post even mentioning him before stating that you'd prefer to lynch him. That post was: I assume that you did, in fact, read the rest of his post, but didn't feel the need to address any of it? At what point and why did you start suspecting DYH, and what are your thoughts on him now? I'm staying out of the current DYH/sl00sh debate, because their responses are pretty valid. I think they're starting to talk past each other, now, and so I decided to look in other directions. I was originally suspicious of DYH when he hadn't yet started responding to our questions, when he wasn't clear on his stance towards lynching, and when he stayed on sl00sh throughout the end of voting without being online to prevent a no-lynch. My thoughts of him now are that he's still being stubborn on the mislynch in hindsight, but I can understand where he's coming from. On February 20 2012 08:15 Mattchew wrote: Hey guys, I am reading currently but probably wont post anything for awhile. Its nighttime anyway so its not too important to post a lot now. I voted Midnight because I got subbed in like 12 hours before the lynch, read through the top 3 and voted who I felt was scummiest. Explain your behavior before the lynch, when you called out gumshoe and left without saying anything else. You do realize that that sequence was very suspicious, right? | ||
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MidnightGladius
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I see that no one has brought up my case against Alderan, who apparently isn't even on anyone else's radar: There have been no references to him in the last 2 pages, and the ones before that all come from people putting him on a town list. This, incidentally, is why I think town lists are terrible, because if you're wrong, you're giving that player a blank check, and if you're right, then the mafia have a better choice of targets. He said that he'd be back by 7-8 EST, so he should have had a few hours now to respond by now. And he hasn't. I'm personally perplexed by how people think I'm the most scummy here. We have among us lurkers (Alderan and blae000, who for what it's worth is getting replaced anyways), admitted liars (gumshoe), and players who still haven't explained their actions (Mattchew). I've been trying to play an honest and accountable game, but the major cases against me (EchelonTee, DYH) point at ulterior motives (not having a "town perspective," and not directly addressing a case that I felt had no merit, respectively). The frustrating part of all of this is that, by accusing my intentions and not my actions, you're leaving me with no way to convince you otherwise. I'm really not sure where to go from here. I have a solid read on Alderan as mafia, but if no one's even going to consider what I've been saying, then I'm going to stop wasting your time. Hopefully, my mislynch will be enough to convince you that you've been going about this the wrong way all along. | ||
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MidnightGladius
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On February 20 2012 13:32 slOosh wrote: You're looking really scummy to me right now MG. Unless you provide good reasoning why you think DYH is town, it is absolutely incriminating that you would bring up a new lynch suspect "who apparently isn't even on anyone else's radar". That was before he wrote his "town list" post, which was definitely a huge signal. I would certainly be willing to lynch DYH today on the basis that that post contradicted most of the principles that he even admitted to standing for earlier. However, I have to disagree that looking at other players is incriminating, especially when one player is facing a lot of pressure. It seems especially important to me to focus on players who haven't faced any previous scrutiny. Otherwise, we'd just see one obvious bandwagon after another. On February 20 2012 13:33 slOosh wrote: P.S. Get off Alderan's case. He said he is working and will be busier during the weekends. Let him respond. He has plenty of time to respond, but he has to know that there is pressure on him to respond, and quickly. Especially with our time zone problems, I'm not willing to let him effectively skip a whole day phase without offering any new reads. On February 20 2012 13:39 slOosh wrote: P.P.S. Gumshoe I like your improvement in posting - both in clarity and conciseness. As you say in your first post, I'm predicting he will be making a case on MG. Whether it is a bus or not I'm undecided as I am waiting for MG's response first. In any case we lynching DYH today. Don't let our votes be split between two mafia candidates (should MG also be mafia) Of course he's going to be making a case on me, because he already has a case open on me. I'm not really sure what you're talking about here. ##Vote: DoYouHas | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
Mattchew, those switches came in the context of an impending deadline, when I didn't know how many people were active, and the consensus formed quickly of pure necessity. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
On February 21 2012 05:27 Alderan wrote: The way I play, and the way I think the rest of the town should play, is you only defend those that you think are town if they are getting lynched. You will never see me make a large post about why someone is town. Ever. It's bad play and only helps mafia. Whoops, I thought that you had posted a town-read on DYH earlier. In that case, why aren't you voicing any opinions on him? Also, stop avoiding the actual question. In your opinion, who should we lynch today? Trackdoor? | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
On February 21 2012 06:34 gumshoe wrote: Midnight who do you think we should lynch today? I wanted to wait for your opinion earlier before voting but you sorta vanished and I ended up voting on DYH because I reasoned his death would tell us a lot (god I'm a hypocrite. Another thing, I have a concern, if DYH flips town tonight, that'll mean that two of our solid posters accused you and then died. Looking back jaj's death seemed like an obvious way for the mafia to crumb suspicion on you, so I'm still pretty convinced your town because that move was just so blatant, but DYH's death if he's town may do a similar thing. Are you concerned about this possibility? How do you intend to address it? Because if DYH does flip town I'm not gonna lie I wont be able to help suspecting you. Whats your read on Hawk btw? You must have missed my earlier post where I explained why I was voting for DYH. There's certainly a possibility that DYH is innocent and that we're all way off track, but there's not really anything for me to address at this point: no matter what, I think that lynching DYH is the right move today. Currently, Alderan is my priority for tomorrow, and the result of today's lynch will certainly influence that case, but I see no reason to pre-emptively defend against a possibility that basically just generates WIFOM. Hawk needs to explain why he still can't get a read on me, and he should be coming back soon to vote and reply to his accusers. He also needs to follow up his analysis of the slOosh/DYH conflict, and I really want to see what he means by logic. He's made reference to it a number of times, but I've yet to see any use of it from him. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
On February 21 2012 07:25 gumshoe wrote: Your right about the wifom, well cross bridges when we get to them, one scum at a time. What do you think about my plan on Hawk and Janaan? Is it too narrow minded? It's way too deterministic. Deductive arguments like that work if and only if you are completely certain of the premises, and I've seen one town player tunneling another way too frequently. I'd be more comfortable following up on Alderan first, and seeing what develops from there. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
You're right, I haven' talked to zelblade, trackdoor, or TKHawkins. I also didn't explicitly deal with Steveling, sloosh, Janaan, or DimmuKlok. The only players I've directly talked to have been those attacking me, or those that I've been suspicious of. Guess what, you haven't been talking to everyone, either. No one has! I'm not going to go through every other player's filter and do the same thing, because you should see the point. This method encourages confirmation bias, doesn't really discriminate between innocents and scum, and then sounds really really convincing unless you look at the bias in the process. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
I do agree with you that it's more likely than not that there's 1 or more scum in his list, just going off of the odds and regardless of whether he's right or wrong. With 15 players, the odds were ~76%, and with two innocents dead it's ~82%. It's way past my bedtime  | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
My activity during the week is going to be much lower due to my ungodly schedule of classes, and I won't be able to read or post much from 8:00-5:00 PST, I find Mattchew's play to be hurting the town. His condescension is frustrating, he still likes making claims without feeling the need to explain himself, and I have this feeling that he was too confident about DYH. He might have admitted to experimenting with playstyles after the fact, but his posting was extremely suspicious, and his defenses weren't compelling. For Mattchew to be so sure and willing to taunt us even before the flip is uncanny. It's also not helping town atmosphere, as others have said, for him to be so focused on his four targets, when almost everyone else has displayed hesitation towards it. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
I thought Sloosh had a good case, and I can forgive him his tunneling, because I too felt that it was the right thing to do at the time. Hindsight is 20/20, and we can't condemn him solely on the basis of his being wrong. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
On February 22 2012 11:51 Mattchew wrote: to all of my accused.. (hawk track MG zel) I want each of you to post in detail what you all think of 1 another I will never rule out I could be wrong (I don't think I am right now) but this will help any of you that could by some slight chance be town survive Are you sure that you're even willing to be convinced at this point? I can see the writing on the wall, and I don't want to waste my breath when I could be doing something less frustrating and more productive instead. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
GG GL! | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
That was not pleasant, either to participate in or to observe. Well played, mafia, well played. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
As for failing to defend myself properly, you're right, I probably could have kept on fighting up to the end, but school was really cutting down on my time, and with my midterm the night I died, I decided that I would be better off focusing on that, instead. You guys certainly didn't make it easy for me to try to exonerate myself. Sometimes, I wonder why I even try to play this game :D | ||
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