First time playing mafia, hope this will be fun and i am not too stupid.
Newbie Mini Mafia III
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Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
First time playing mafia, hope this will be fun and i am not too stupid. | ||
Simberto
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Simberto
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On January 25 2012 07:16 Bromancipate wrote: Fellow townies, the scum has started breeding! They have increased their number by 30% in the 24 hours alone. We must stop this pestilence and cleanse our once pure city of their filth. Our safe sex program has done little to stem the flow of mafia babies, we must seek drastic methods. They will swing from the gallows. They will swing from the lamposts. They will swing from the slightly elevated mayor's office; and we will never surrender! For one, for all. BROMANCIPATION! Oh my god, they are multiplying exponentially! If they continue at this rate, this whole thread will be red within less then a week! And a week after that, the whole subforum. And within a month, this whole site will be red as blood. We need to quickly test whether or not shampoo helps. If it doesn't, we need to nuke everything. | ||
Simberto
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First of, "randomly" lynching in the way zarepath proposed sounds strange. First of all, it is not truly random if we discuss the person we are lynching together with the random lynch. This would actually give mafia a very, very easy day 1, which is not something we want. They either just stay middle profile and lynch the person at hand with low danger to themselves, because they would only have to support the system of a random lynch, and not the actual lynch of a person. And if the "random" targeted person is one of theirs, they just have to state that they are against random lynching in general. If we would want to lynch randomly, we should first decide that we do that, and then somehow randomize whom we vote for afterwards. However, since we don't have any reliable way of randomizing as a group, it would always ultimately be up to one single person, so when we say we lynch randomly, we basically give the decision of whom we lynch to one single man, who might or might not randomize. That does not really sound extraordinarely smart in my opinion, especially since we even give him a very good excuse should he lynch an innocent. So instead of having to guess one mafia, we now have to guess one townie only to even get a random lynch. Next, we have the possibility of not lynching. While this gives additional information for our first lynch, it also gives the mafia a free kill. I don't really like doing that. Then we have a policy lynch on a hard lurker. I think this is actually not a really good idea. All the mafia needs to do to avoid this is post a few more or less interesting posts to not be hardlurker, and they get a free kill with nearly no information for us out of it. They don't even need to bandwagon or use their combined influence. So, we are left with talking, and finding a good target for a lynch. This is generally a good idea, but we have to keep in mind that mafia is probably trying to influence our aggression onto one of ours (which also gives us more information lateron) And despite the general strangeness (scumminess?) of zelblades post, he still has a point in that bar extraordinary circumstances (which i think are actually not that unlikely, the mafia density leads me to believe that we probably have some blues, as others have pointed out before, too), we only have 2 mislynches. So if we lynch, we should lynch in a way that gives us maximum information, so no random or policy lynch. At the moment, i would say that zelblade looks pretty strange, as sloosh has pointed out. Of course he has to defend himself, but afterwards he first argues for a lurker lynch, and then in his next post points out that we need to use our mislynches very carefully, since we only got a very limited amount of those. A policy lynch is not a lynch that gives a lot of information, so those both posts contradict each other very much. And the "everyone needs to post more" part looks like trying to post more without actually saying much in my opinion. However, i would also like to hear more from the people who have not yet posted anything. | ||
Simberto
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If i am not totally mistaken, we need to produce information. If we just play by chance, we will lose. Thus, i would really like to here more peoples take on zelblade, who in my opinion looks a bit strange at the moment. That, of course, includes zelblade himself, but also SacredSystem, Chocolate, DoYouHas, FakePromise, bal11t, CosmosXAM and TheFearedBeing, all of whom have barely contributed at all so far. | ||
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On January 25 2012 19:30 zarepath wrote: The only problem with that is you confuse your actual detective for mafia just because he operates on hidden knowledge. The detective has an incentive to operate on hidden knowledge, while the mafia has no hidden knowledge to go off of except who else is mafia, and they're not going to talk about that. Also, I would save theorytalk for when it's actually applicable. Otherwise it looks like you're just making empty posts. "No hidden knowledge except who else is mafia". That is the most important hidden knowledge in the whole game. Of course they will not explicitly mention it, but the whole process of finding hidden knowledge is based on people slipping something they don't consciously mean to say. You can't just turn of knowledge of something, so everything you know will unconsciously go into every post you make. So if it becomes obvious that someone is pulling knowledge from some source that is not this thread, that at least makes him a person of interest. | ||
Simberto
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But, and that is very important, this also means we can not NoLynch. If we nolynch, and don't get any saves, we can only mislynch once. Since everyone feels like saying this, i will just emphasize it again. Talk. At the moment, we still have 6 people who have basically not participated at all, and that does just not work. We can't policy-lynch 6 people, so if you don't talk, you actively hurt us. The only persons who have any reason to lurk are mafia, but since we have 6 people without posts with any substance, at least 2 of those are doing that against their own interest. Now, instead of pointless policy, lets talk about persons. CosmosXAM is suspicious. First he is so enthusiastic before the game: Really excited for this, can't wait till 9 :D And then, as soon as the game starts, there is nothing anymore. I find that highly noteworthy. This does not mean that i see zelblade cleared, he is also pretty high on my list of suspicious persons, but if i had to decide on a lynch now, it would be CosmosXAM, since he is both suspicious AND a lurker. | ||
Simberto
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On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote: If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating). Also, this post that snuck in above me sounds strange in my opinion. I think pretty much everyone agrees that we should not random lynch, so why bring it up again to debunk it again? And other than that it contains absolutely no new information, for me this looks a lot like a post for postings sake, and not an actual contribution towards our goals. This just feels scummy. | ||
Simberto
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And that (no random lynching) includes zarepath who has also already stated that he does not believe in random lynching anymore. So why did you bring him up again? | ||
Simberto
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Don't get me wrong, i agree with you, i just want to prevent us from going from talking about useless stuff to not talking at all. Generally speaking, anything where there are disagreements is good, anything that just states that we are all buddies and everyone loves each other and thinks exactly the same is bad. (As long as it is related to the game) Thus, i would propose that instead of meta-meta talk we should talk about lynchings and plans. Since noone has a plan (me included), lets talk about good lynch targets for today. On my list, this would be zelblade CosmosXAM Rest of the lurkers (TheFearedBeing, DoYouHas, SacredSystem, FakePromise, balt11t) There are other people on whom we do not have a lot of information, but who at least have posted something so far. These might or might not be good targets too, but in my opinion those first two are the most suspicious from what i have seen so far, with zelblade being the most suspicious person who has posted so far, and CosmosXAM being the most suspicious person who has not yet posted. So lets talk about them. | ||
Simberto
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However, with the speed with which we progress at the moment, i think we should seriously talk about our lynching now if we want to get it done in time. In my opinion, since a NoLynch is pretty much as bad as a mislynch in our current state, while providing less information, we should lynch someone. As a have said before, my candidate for a good lynch at the moment would be zelblade. Also, he does not seem inclined to defend himself. This is based mostly on: On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum. To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote: If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating). Bringing up a long-resolved point to distract the discussion. Sure, this is not the strongest case one can build, but it is day 1 after all. And in my opinion it is the strongest case we have at the moment. And sure, there could be lots of mafia hiding between the lurkers, but there is nothing one can realistically do againt that, since i don't think all or even most of the mafia are lurking that hard (sounds stupid), and we can't realistically policy-lynch 5-6 people, so the only thing one can do about that is hope that they start talking to us or get modkilled. | ||
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Other then that, i am going to bed now, i hope for lots of juicy posts in the morning. | ||
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I am still of the opinion that zelblade looks scummiest of the people who are participating. Reasons for that are what i posted in my last post, the apologeticness pointed out by DoYouHas, and the being apologetic for being apologetic and pointing himself as a noob here: The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. I have others on the list of people who are actually writing which i find look a bit weird, too. And i would love to go into that and concentrate on those. However, we really can't at the moment, not with the amount of hardlurking going on. For example, we simply can't let FakePromise get away with what he is doing at the moment. He has not posted a single point of interest yet, mostly just half-assed numbers like this gems: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. This seriously does not have any information at it, at all. Except maybe that it was actually zarepath who posted the first randomlynch proposal, so maybe this is an underhand and very stupid try to avoid attention and deflect it to the most conspicious person around, i don't know. Same goes for CosmosXAM who says nothing, except for apologies for being inactive and very, very safe statements that noone could find a problem with. Or Balt11t, who also has not yet posted anything with content except safe accusations against FakePromise and gets into absolutely inconsequential banter with SacredSystem. Or Sacredsystem, who does the same, and answers for other people, too. I have not even mentioned FearedBeing, because the best thing we can hope for at the moment is for him to be modkilled. I would really love to concentrate on suspicous people instead of inactive ones, but with that amount of inactives, we really can't, because that would show to mafia that the only thing they need to do to be safe is not post. So if any of those inactives are town, PLEASE, PLEASE, post. And don't only post to post, post interesting things. Things that make your stance clear, analysis, new things. Not just repetition of what someone else said or inconsequential stuff like links to the voting thread. Things that force you to take a stance, things that you can be called out on later. This gives us more information to rule you out as mafia. One other thing is that although there is a voting thread, i believe that we should still post our votes here on the main thread so that we will be notified whenever someone votes. As for my own vote, i am still waiting for fakepromise's proper response. If it doesnt come, my vote will probably go to him. With this i agree. Even though it is another nonconsequential thing you can't see anything out of, it is at least useful. Of course the votes that get counted are the ones in the voting thread, but by posting your votes in both places you are making this thread easier to follow, and if you hide your votes, you are conspicious. ##vote FakePromise | ||
Simberto
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Honestly, the vibe i got of FakePromise is that of an uninterested and incompetent townie, too. But his absolute refusal to respond swings that towards scummy or stupid. True, stupid is more probable, but we can not really accept stupidity and inactivity as a defense, that makes the game far to easy for mafia. Also, it is very hard to differantiate a very stupid townie from a very stupid mafia, especially when they don't really post anything. Also, zarepath, note that most of your argument is WIFOM, and that you flipflop between "mafia would tell him to act, but not help him to be safer", and "noone helps him", which are obviously contradictionary. Even further, you invalidate that whole argument by helping him with this post. What we have at the moment is a systemic problem, and that is that we have 4 people who barely post at all, and even more who post only very small amounts. If i were to hunt for mafia, i would probably look among the "barely more" people, who post just enough to not be branded as lurkers, but not enough to hang themselves open in the spotlight, like Chocolate or balt11t. However, before we can do any real mafia hunting, that systemic problem needs to be addressed. Because we can't just ignore people if they don't post enough. Zelblade is still very suspicious, too. The problem i have here is that there is absolutely no rational reason to be a hard lurker. Even if are not active all the time, at least contribute when you are active. Just you reading this topic does not help us at all. If you are pro-town, you need to post. Sadly, this means that everyone who does not post a lot is not acting pro-town. If you are not posting, you are hurting us, on the same level as mafia does. Not only do you make us waste lynches on people we have no information on, you also make us spend the whole day just talking about inactivity instead of mafia. We can't just ignore the lurkers because that would turn the game into easymode for the mafia, but we also can't only focus on them because it is a big waste of time. For example, Fakepromise now has 3 votes on him, but he is not even talking, at all. So all we know is that he is inactive. He could be an inactive townie, or inactive mafia. Noone knows, because he does not talk. Both mafia and town SHOULD defend themselves in that situation. If it continues like this, i will probably just vote on the lurker with the most votes on him when i go to sleep. Sadly the end of the day is in the middle of the night for me, so i can't be around then. To not waste all of this time talking only about inactivity (which is the best thing to happen for mafia), i will think about my mafia reads on the active people, and post that in a second post very soon after this one. | ||
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Zelblade looks absurdly scummy at this point, really even so much that i might even favor him over lynching a lurker. He posted a lot in the beginning, his posts made him look scummy, and now he does nothing but post apologetic things and attacks onto the easy target FakePromise. Take a look at this gem: The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. He apologizes for being apologetic. Really? AND he paints himself as a noob. Why should a towny do that? As town, i want people to trust me, and carefully consider what i say, not take me for a noob who has nothing important to say. However, "being a noob" is a wonderful excuse for inconsistencies that might result from mafia trying to act as town. The rest of his only post today was used to specifically attack FakePromise, who is already in pretty deep problems anyways. Chocolate looks strange. Not only is he active on TL, but not contributing here at all, almost all of his posts consist of zero content. He is saying that he tries to make Lurkers post, while he pretty much lurks very hard himself. Other then that, he did not post anything except an attack on the random lynching plan. I would really like some kind of statement from those 3 guys. | ||
Simberto
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Found some time before my day starts to read the newer posts. Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion. I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level. Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers? Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure. Hm, that is an interesting question. In any case you should post your case before the night ends to avoid a mafia hit killing information, that is for sure (We can talk during the night and mafia hits hit in the morning if i am not totally mistaken). However, if you have a really good case, i think that going after that is better than a random/policy lynch. But you need to be careful that you don't post it too late. Better posting it during the night than in the last few hours of the day and confuse people into a nolynch. I am very convinced that we should lynch today, and if you post it at a time when the europeans can no longer react to it, i don't think you will get a majority lynch on a new person going, especially considering the amount of lurking/inactivity going on. Also, i would suggest asking a coach about that, they might have something to consider that i don't. But if you can't contact one and post your case before european midnight, i think you should better post it earlier then wasting too much time. But until we see that case and it is good, lurkers are still the prime targets. | ||
Simberto
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I firmly believe that we should lynch today, so in my eyes the only question is whom. So, vote, and we can discuss it. We should also try to come to a conclusion before all europeans are asleep. Also: I don't know what WIFOM is (these newbie games should have a list of acronyms at the beginning). WIFOM stands for "Wine in front of me", which is apparently a reference to some movie. It is used to describe the sort of circular reasoning "Ok, mafia should do this, but they know we know they should do this, so they should do the opposite, but then they know we know they know we know, so they should do the first thing" etc...., which basically does not lead to a conclusion and only obfuscates things. | ||
Simberto
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##unvote FakePromise ##vote CosmoxXAM | ||
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If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me. I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before. ##unvote CosmosXAM ##vote Zarepath | ||
Simberto
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##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise | ||
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Most probable mafia: zelblade I have posted my reasoning before, and it has not fundamentally changed. Apologetic, paints himself as a noob, things that can very well be scumslips like "to town" Added now is going into HARD lurker mode as soon as the spotlight is of him. He now posts about 3 lines a day. Also, upon rereading this thread i noticed that we were pretty focused on zelblade, and then suddenly the whole "FakePromise" thing started out of nowhere. Most probable town: Sloosh Note that this is not a particularly strong town read, just the best i have. Contributing, and bringing up NEW points, not only reiterating the old ones. On an other note, you all should take a look at the vote list. It would be very weird if not at least 2, more probably 3 of the people voting on FakePromise are mafia. I will take a better look into how the whole FakePromise thing got started now, and i would encourage others do so now, too. Preferably before i am done and post my findings so that we can have multiple PoV on this and avoid conformation bias/bandwagoning. | ||
Simberto
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balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade | ||
Simberto
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I try to get as much stuff done in these last hours of night because i fear that i might not be alive tomorrow, so i would also suggest that tomorrow, everyone casts his vote as soon as the day starts. You are still able to change them at any time, so this is no commitment, but it allows us to not have these last-minute haggling for votes debates full of incertainty, which i don't think are a good thing. | ||
Simberto
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+ Show Spoiler + I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11t FakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk. Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time. on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_- Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum. To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post. As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post. I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast. Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote: you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it. | ||
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Since both the medic and the target get notified on a safed hit, the best option is to have the targeted person say that they were safed. If you are a veteran and got safed by your veteran powers, ALSO state that you were safed by a medic, i think we gain more from mafia not knowing whether a medic exists than we would gain from knowing for ourselves. | ||
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On January 28 2012 12:05 Simberto wrote: Oh, i am still alive. I actually wanted to post before the night ended, but it seems like i was to slow. Nice btw, no deaths. Whoever did that, gratulations. I really don't see mafia not killing anybody. EBWOP Also, here i obviously meant "I don't see mafia not trying to kill anybody" | ||
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Last, but not least, we are still missing town/mafia reads (with arguments!) from balt11t, Adam4167 and zelblade and probably some other people. This does not need to interrupt the discussion. ##vote zelblade | ||
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Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment. | ||
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This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong). For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up. I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. | ||
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Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point. ##unvote zelblade ##vote zarepath | ||
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For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia. Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case. We need to take a deep look at who voted late and/or reluctantly onto zarepath, there is probably scum amongst them. In line with my "zelblade is scum" theory, i think that the point when zelblade was forced to vote for zarepath is the point when mafia realised that they could not safe him. This makes people after him most suspicious, the list of those is: Chocolate, Bromancipate, Simberto, Adam4167, balt11t. Now, i know that i am town. You all don't, but that should not hinder my analysis. Adam feels pretty towny to me, and balt11t is very suspicious, was suspicious before, and is in line to hopefully get shot tonight so we see how that feels. I think that both Bromancipate and Chocolate are very good targets for further investigation. Of course i am also open to investigation regarding me and will openly and transparently answer any questions you have, since i realise that my voting pattern looks pretty scummy. Sure, our forth mafia does not need to be part of that list, they could have decided to bus zarepath earlier, but i don't think that is the case. On an other note, i think we can be reasonably sure that mafia does not have a godfather. If they had one, it would have been zarepath. We can be pretty sure that DoYouHas is town, because if he is mafia, he is either absurdly stupid or has such an ingenious and risky scheme planned that we could probably better just lie down and die if it does not crumble on its own. So, I will vote on zelblade again tomorrow, and i hope that this time we can get him lynched. Also: WOOOOOO, dead mafia! | ||
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As to the roleblocker, we will have a much better idea of that at the end of the night. It will not be 100% certain in all cases, but whether or not balt11t dies and how he flips will give us a great deal of information on this subject. The only way to 100% confirm MidnightGladius is by both balt11t and someone else dieing tonight. My hopes are that with a 4 start, mafia does not have any power roles, but that is only a hope. | ||
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I don't think anyone at this point disagrees with a zelblade lynch. We should spent some time of day 3 very carefully analysing everything to make sure that we don't make a mistake here (We have got the time), but as i pointed out before, i don't think we do. However, if someone has a major complaint against that or wants to put forth another, better candidate, now would be a good time to do so. If everything turns out as expected and both zelblade and balt11t are scum, my prime subjects for the forth one would be Bromancipate, Chocolate and maybe Adam4167. But i must say that i have not rigorously analysed this and this conclusion is mostly from my memory. | ||
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On January 31 2012 08:01 Bromancipate wrote: Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment. Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain. No, that is absolutely not what i was saying. What i was doing was looking at the situation with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia. Not every try to analyse mafia intentions is WIFOM. My conclusions was that under the knowledge that zarepath is mafia, I find it very likely that CosmosXAM is town. Not sure, but very likely. Thus, there are other people one should lynch other, more suspicious people first. Bromancipate SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not. I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum. This is not what i was saying. What i said was that under the assumption that zelblade is scum, which i believe is true, it is unlikely that SacredSystem is Scum, too. Thus, the thing hanging on zelblades scumminess i meant is not SacredSystems alignment, but my argument in that paragraph. Also, the other point of that paragraph is that the only attempt to divert attention away from zarepath is zelblades aggression onto SacredSystem, which with the knowledge that Zarepath is mafia makes zelblade look scummy. | ||
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On January 31 2012 12:56 slOosh wrote: I read somewhere (Mafiascum) that people who congratulate medic saves (dunno why he assumed that it was medic not vet) are most likely mafia or the medic themselves. But since it is my first game I really didn't know if this was reliable or not. Never did i assume that it was a medic over a vet. Also, i was very clear in stating that that knowledge is not something that should be put in the open. As to your point of my cautiousness and lowered activity over the weekend, this was mostly based on the way i was apparently played by mafia on day one, which made me much more suspicious of what i think. And i am always mentioning zelblade because i think he is mafia, but we always have a better target to go for with a lynch. I don't want him to get totally out of the spotlight again. On January 31 2012 15:23 DoYouHas wrote: Simberto's Filter Simberto established himself early as someone that many of us trusted. He did this with his general activity level and his sincere efforts to focus on and pressure lurkers. What exactly did he do with his unquestioned position in the town? Very little. He has consistently thrown his suspicion on zelblade, but has never bothered to put together a strong, focused case or push hard. The closest he comes is this post + Show Spoiler + On January 28 2012 12:03 Simberto wrote: Hm, sadly, noone else seems to be online. Anyways, here is my conclusion. I would prefer if you try to look at how day 1 evolved with an open mind yourself before reading it to avoid confirmation bias, though. + Show Spoiler + I find the whole of day 1 interestingly consistent with a hypothesis of a mafia group consisting of zelbalde, SacredSystem, CosmosXAM and balt11t FakePromise, I feel as though saying that you are willing to take a 70% chance of killing an innocent man seems like you might have something to hide. Criminals tend to be fine with killing off innocent people, and you seem to fit that profile. Normal people would not be willing to take such a risk. Zarepath's decision to lynch someone at random does sound like the calculated mind of a mobster. However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time. on a side note Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_- Now, at day 1, mafia who just wanted to be completely comfortable in their own room suddenly got attacked by the first post, pretty randomly. Not really a problem, just need to assault the idea of a random lynch, and maybe attack some other person who is at hand. Now, they point a bit onto FakePromise. Zelblade tries to post something inconspicious to not be the person of interest anymore, and makes the "to town" slip: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum. To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. This puts him under scrutiny and into the spotlight. Anything he says now is constructed negatively. So mafia try again to push the spotlight onto someone else, the old target. My apologies for my absence since last night. School takes up quite a bit of my time, however, I have been able to watch the game develop, just not post. As far as what I think, I believe FakePromise was extremely fast to agree with zarepath, almost too fast. He offered almost no grounds with his post, and agreed that a 70% chance of killing an innocent man might be worth it in the long run. The fact that he jumped so quickly to this conclusin in such a short amount of time makes him look suspicious as far as I am concerned. Now, we have one thing that i am not exactly sure of, which is Midnight attacking FakePromise, but maybe he really only want's to get lurkers to post. I had yet to post because I was at school, sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion. But in my opinion even pressuring someone like that will be cause of an emotional and defensive response making them see even more likely to be right to lynch. I am completely against random lynches on the first day because the odds are just too small, you wouldnt bet your life on a 1/3 chance would you? That is the same stance I am taking here even on the chance we do kill a mafia in my opinion it comes at too great of a risk and we dont need to kill a townie only to have more killed in the night, that just brings our numbers too low to fast. Now this by CosmosXAM, this is just weird. Doesn't it sound like he is not defending FakePromise, but actually zelblade? To me it does. Then, we have SacredSystem answering a question directed to CosmosXAM. If that is not scummy, i don't know what is. On January 26 2012 07:01 SacredSystem wrote: you and fakepromise you for coming up with random killing and fakepromise for agreeing with you And FakePromise comes up again. Note that up to this point, the spotlight was very much on zelblade only. CosmosXAM states the exact same thing afterwards, with the added OMGUS onto Chocolate. Now DoYouHas votes on zelblade, and instantly afterwards SacredSystem votes for FakePromise. Just look at it: Every time one of those four gets into trouble (zelblade and CosmosXAM), something from one of the others happens that redirects the thread towards FakePromise. As soon as Zarepath brings up Cosmos as an alternate lynch target, zelblade votes onto FakePromise. When they are equal on votes, balt11t very fastly votes for FakePromise to make him lead again. Now, take a look at the votes list. Interestingly enough, this team has votes 2, 4 and 6 on FakePromise. As i said before, 3 votes expected, and of course never vote in tandem to avoid suspicion. Now, i know that all of this hangs on zelblade being mafia, but this is my take on the situation at the moment. I would really like to hear what others think about it. You are absolutely correct, i should have been more focussed. I mostly wrote everything i found suspicious into the thread, partly to further discussion and partly to make my complete stance clear, instead of focussing on one person, which would have been the smarter idea. DoYouHas How has he used his voting? To flip-flop and bandwagon. Day1, first FakePromise, then CosmosXAM, then Zarepath, then back to Fakepromise. I'm not going to criticize for his early arguments against FakePromise, it doesn't distinguish him from the crowd. However, I think his 2 posts that contain the vote change from CosmosXAM to Zarepath and Zarepath back to Fakepromise are extremely interesting. + Show Spoiler + On January 27 2012 09:26 Simberto wrote: Very interesting. After reading this, and rereading Zarepaths filter 2 times, I can definitively see what you mean. Noticeable is that Zarepaths only real contribution was to defend FakePromise, which makes both of them extremely linked in my opinion. If Zarepath should flip red, that would make FakePromise an almost 100% red too (while this does not necessarily work the other way around). Also that whole defense of FakePromise could really be the work of a frustrated mafia, too. And should he flip green, we need to take a VERY careful look at CosmosXAM and sloosh. I really dislike the way this case was built in the last minute, and the try to pull me on board beforehand, but i must admit that it seems like a strong case to me. I will probably stay up a bit later tonight (this is far too interesting), so if we for some reason absolutely can't get a lynch onto Zarepath, i will change my vote to FakePromise. Please, everyone who wants to lynch Zarepath react as fast as possible, and everyone who does not want to do that, also react fast (and especially give reasons). We are running on limited time now, so i suggest that we concentrate on this one instead of half a dozen half-cases like we did before. ##unvote CosmosXAM ##vote Zarepath On January 27 2012 11:18 Simberto wrote: Apparently, we won't get a lynch on zarepath in time, so i will change my vote back to FakePromise. At least this way we have one less lurker and absolute noncontributor. And if he flips red, we need to really take a look at zarepath. If he does not, we need to really reconsider our assumptions. I would suggest everyone with a vote on zarepath (or those random useless votes) to do the same, since voting ends in 45 minutes and we only have 4 of 7 needed votes on zarepath, while there are now 7 votes on FakePromise (which would be enough, but is not really safe). ##unvote Zarepath ##voteFakePromise The bolded part of the first post is some extremely flawed logic which only has the purpose of pushing a day2 FakePromise lynch even if zarepath is to die. I pointed out the flaw in this logic when it happened with this post, My Post. My post is ignored, and this same bad logic pops up when he switches his vote back to FakePromise, this time a green flip is supposed to mean that the case on zarepath is based on poor assumptions and he is also green. Italicized is Simberto's call to pile onto FakePromise which would have the dual function of making the lynch safe and masking bandwagoners, of which he is one. Oh my, that really looks scummy with the knowledge that zarepath was red and fakepromise green, even to me. One important thing to notice, however, is that i was the first person to support the zarepath case with that post, and i sincerely hoped for more people to jump onto it. Then, when i noticed that we would not manage a vote for him (45 min before deadline there were 4 votes on zarepath), i changed to FakePromise because i was of the firm assumption that he, too, was a good lynch. I don't think anyone can really argue that he was one, either. The rest is just me tripping into now-obvious mafia traps, which weren't that obvious at that point. Also, regarding the argument about the italicized part, one should notice that noone else jumped into it afterwards. You may now call this WIFOM, but it is really not. Sure, I was bandwagoning, but i really did not want to waste a day without a lynch when fakepromise was a perfectly good target. DoYouHas Day2 his voting is equally strange when you look at the posts that go along with it. He starts with a vote against zelblade, yet again without a strong case to back it up. Neither does he try to make this case later. Then we get a little filler on the reasons to claim a hit and how to do it. And then we get these 2 strange posts preceding his vote switch to zarepath. + Show Spoiler + On January 30 2012 02:04 Simberto wrote: I think that for today, SacredSystem is not a very good lynch. I also still remain very, very suspicious of zelblade, and would really like to lynch him since so often stuff seems to lead towards him, like this Zarepath case does, too. Basically the moment the second Zarepath case appears, zelblade comes out of lurking and attacks SacredSystem (easy target), quickly reinforced by Zarepath himself. This, in my opinion, makes the already strong case on zarepath stronger. There are also some more inconsistencies i noticed upon rereading the thread, but this could also be my confirmation bias speaking (which upon rereading day 1 seems to be pretty strong). For the moment, to avoid falling into the same traps i did on day 1, i will keep my vote on zelblade for overall fishiness, but i won't be the reason the zarepath case fails unless something truly unexpected comes up. I would also really like our friendly neighbourhood lurkers balt11t, bromancipate and chocolate to both post in this thread and cast their votes. On January 30 2012 07:27 Simberto wrote: At this point, zarepath is dead. I must say that i am getting slightly suspicious of this action beacuse of the limited resistence it is met with. Either mafia has decided that he is unsafeable and don't want to invest to heavily in trying to defend him, or he is not really mafia. Anyways the case is still pretty good, so we will see how he flips, and then go from there. My vote on zelblade is obviously useless at this point, so i will switch it over to zarepath, this way there are 9 people on him, so even if mafia decides to do something last-minute, they will still need to get 2 people of him. I also find it interesting how late people place their vote even though i though we wanted to place them as early as possible for transparency reasons. Not to mention balt11t being completely vanished and maybe even getting modkilled at this point. ##unvote zelblade ##vote zarepath This first post contains an outright error on top of being fishy. Zelblade's original attack on SacredSystem came before my announced suspicion on zarepath, and his original case on SacredSystem came out before my analysis of zarepath. Simberto is linking zelblade's guilt with zarepath's, just like he did with FakePromise. Then he states that my case against zarepath is strong, that his own logic only strengthens my case, and that he found more inconsistencies on top the ones I pointed out. And yet, this is not enough to get him to change his vote. This sounds to me like he is keeping his options open. In his second post he is switching his vote not because he has become more convinced of zarepath's guilt. Rather, he has become less convinced because of the lack of resistance to a zarepath lynch. Simberto cites the inevitability of a zarepath lynch and hops aboard in order to make it safe. Note that he never seems to display conviction in the guilt of the people he is voting for, with the possible exception of zelblade, but I think I have already explained the strangeness of that situation. Note that all of this followed a case of yours in which you basically explained how i got completely played by mafia throughout the whole of Day1. I hope you see how i become more conscious about changing my vote afterwards, and don't want to be the influential factor again. Also, i was still convinced that zelblade was the better lynch, and thus left my vote on him to open up that avenue for others. But i should probably have made a better case against him. I felt like i hade made my reasons to believe that more clear in earlier posts, especially since zelblade seems to perfectly fit into every mafia group built up at that point. As to the error, you are correct. I am not sure how that happened, i was absolutely convinced that the chronology was differently, even upon reading it multiple times. I think i simply missed that first post and only noticed the one after yours. DoYouHas Then there are Simberto's unexplained logical mistakes. I have already pointed out one of them where I tried to correct Simberto and was ignored. Another is a more recent exchange where Simberto was downplaying the likelihood of a godfather being in the game because zarepath had not been the godfather. Start of the Exchange Not only is this wrong, as I pointed out, but it is a message that zarepath also used. It is pretty clear to me that the likelihood of the mafia having a godfather has gone way up since MidnightGladius's shot was not roleblocked. As a town we know that we have at least 2 blue roles, this raises the chances of mafia having at least 1 non-goon role, and I think it is safe to say that it isn't a roleblocker. I still stand by the reasoning that if mafia had a godfather, it would with high probability have been zarepath. I agree that mafia does not have a roleblocker, that is quite obvious now. If mafia has a powerrole, it is a godfather. And actually, the only person who needs to be interested in a godfather is a detective anyways, and upon rethinking it, if we have a detective in addition to those two blues we already know of, the mafia probably has a godfather too. Before, i ignored the fact that we would need a detective for a godfather to be relevant, and thought that us having two power roles would be a pretty fair offset for mafia being more populous then expected. | ||
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On January 31 2012 19:21 zelblade wrote: Alright took a look at simberto's filter. The points DYH makes are valid. Besides me and the lurkers(which are easy to attack without providing much reasoning), he has never pushed any1 else, and even with me, not made a strong case at all and pushed it. I think that DYH has summed up very well why Simberto is likely to flip scum. Also one thing that I feel is wierd: It seems like he is attempting to be casting doubt onto DYH at this point. I understand this is a minor point, but i feel that it is really wierd. Well, at that point everyone took his towniness as completely confirmed, when it was, in fact, not. I found it important to put that out to prevent people ignoring possibilities. I already responded to DoYouHas accusations above. Anyway, I do think that it is likely that Simberto will flip scum. SS (or maybe chocolate) is probably the last scum. ##vote: Simberto You are wrong about that. I am innocent, and will do anything necessary to prove it. I made some mistakes during day1, most of which consisted of being to easily influenced, and when i realised that afterwards (through the day2 zarepath case), i decided to be much more careful when posting and to be more sure of that what i am posting is what i myself actually think, and not me confirmation-biasing what someone else posted before. As a result, i posted less and less specific things. This is now being constructed as a scummy change of behaviour, when it really is the only logical way to react. | ||
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On February 01 2012 00:38 slOosh wrote: To Simberto: Could you explain what you mean by being the "influential factor"? I don't think you had a vote that decided the lynch or not, nor does it make sense that you don't want to be influential. Are you so scared of making mistakes that you fear influence? As it turned out, during day1, i got abused by mafia to promote their lynches, as in the FakePromise vs CosmosXAMs case where i basically did exactly what they wanted me to. Thus, i became more careful and did not want to instantly jump onto any lynch that appeared when i was convinced that an other lynch might have been better. I feared that if i switch onto zarepath, others would follow without thinking, as it apparently happened during day1. On an other note, it was my vote that decided the lynch on FakePromise vs a nolynch. Now, this might not be a necessarily good thing with hindsight, but i stand by my decision at that point in time that it was better to lynch FakePromise then nolynch with the information we had then. Could you also explain what the purpose of "open[ing] up the avenue" is? It's not like we aren't allowed to vote zelblade unless someone first votes him. Not necessarily "not allowed", but still, people who would be inclined to vote zelblade are much more unlikely to do so if they notice that noone else is voting for him. How is it logical to post less transparently and clearly? I posted very clearly and it was great because others have pointed out logical fallacies in my thoughts, which is exactly what I welcome and want as a town. If you are so scared of being wrong and making mistakes, the logical response is putting everything out there and welcoming critique, not hiding it all. It is logical to remove myself a bit from the spotlight when it turns out that I have been manipulated the whole time, AND I don't know who all the people manipulating me are. Also, apparently i was a good tool in manipulating the rest of town. Now, as a conclusion, while i tried to figure out who manipulates me which way, i can at least avoid spreading that manipulation further. I honestly thought this was a terrible typo since 1) I'm the one who noted that, and more importantly 2) zarepath never actually pointed anything about zelblade as his only justification was his random lynch process. But now .... it's not looking so good. I really want to hear your responses and explanations Simberto. I seriously don't know what that is. I assume that i was thinking about something else related to zarepath at that moment, and thus used the wrong name. I will look at that specific post in context to try to make sense of it. So far, even though this will probably be called WIFOM even though it is not, why would i do that intentionally if i was mafia? I don't see any way that would make sense at all. And if it is just a typo, i don't see how it would make me look any more or any less scummy, since i could have made that typo/being distracted if i was mafia just the way i made it now. | ||
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I was the first person to be suspicious of balt11t because of the way he attacked FakePromise, even though i should have followed that through after FakePromise flipped green. At least i hope that some of the suspicion that was on him is a result of that. I was the first person to accept the day1 case against zarepath. At that point in time there was a very real chance that that case could succeed, and if it had succeeded, me supporting it might have very well been the deciding factor. Sure, it did not succeed, but that is not something i knew at that point in time, when there were still more then 2.5 hours on the clock. I only did change my vote away from zarepath when it became totally clear that there was no chance that we would get a lynch on him. | ||
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On February 01 2012 03:14 slOosh wrote: First you say that you fear voting as others would follow without reason. Then you actually go and vote early on without that fear on day 2. As most of your defense seems to be self-victimization right now, this is a glaring contradiction in your thoughts and actions. Glaring because you assert that you were "abused" and "manipulated" to explain your non-commital actions but then you go and do exactly what you said you were trying so hard to avoid. I voted early on day 2 for exactly the reason i stated at that time, to avoid making voting such a last-minute action like it was day 1 and thus make it more logical and less impulsive. I am not doing that today because at the moment you are pretty focussed on me, so anything i would do to promote another lynch candidate is Also, you are a bit wrong about the chronology. During most of the beginning of day2, i was actually pretty occupied and simply did not have enough time to really read into stuff and post something about it. Thus i could only answer to very obvious things when they came up when i found a minute to look at this thread on saturday morning and night. I was gone PnP roleplaying on saturday (this was organized over a forum, i will provide a link if you really want it and it is allowed), returned home late and got to sleep. After that period of time, which ended on sunday when i woke up, i reread the thread, the whole zarepath day 2 case was there, and i understood that i apparently had been pretty eager to do what mafia wanted me to do on day1. This is weak defense since you found a hypothetical thought that can explain the situation and then believe it. It is weak since you are the one who brings up the most WIFOMs and urges caution in everyone esp. with the DoYouHas' hit claim, yet your thinking process is "oh this thought explains my actions, so it must have been what I was thinking". You were suspicious of all the lurkers as were we. Being the first to do so doesn't really mean it is "significantly non-scummy". Honestly it was MidnightGladius who gets all the credit for pegging him with the vig shot. Everyone treated him as 2nd priority lurker. DoYouHas points out in his Zarepath case that I was slow in posting my case against Zarepath on day 1 that we did not have enough time to swing the vote. You are trying to claim credit for hypothetical situations. Since you claim not mafia and there are two remaining, beside Zelblade who do you think the last mafia is and why? [/quote] No, i was just stating that what i did day1 would have been incredibly if i were mafia, while it is completely reasonable since i am town. I was explicitly avoiding to paint another target since that would only have been interpreted as a smokescreen anyways, and was pretty busy defending myself, so i do not have a good mafia read that i am convinced of. I will do that now. | ||
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On February 01 2012 04:27 DoYouHas wrote: Ok, so Simberto agrees that his play did not favor the town day1. He also agrees that his voting looks really scummy now that we have the information we do. He hasn't explained away this typo + Show Spoiler + Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and I honestly don't see what i should explain regarding that. It was a typo. Either my mind was occupied with something else, or i honestly believed that zarepath was the one who pointed it out. It was not intentional, and thus i can not explain my intention behind it, because there was none. Also, i don't understand how that would even be any useful towards mafia goals if i were mafia As i said, i was honestly convinced that zelblades attack on SacredSystem came after your post. Apparently, if you read far too many filters you lose the context. He says that my case against zarepath day2 convinced him of how manipulated he was day1, but by whom? Certainly not zelblade who barely posted anything. The only real answer is zarepath. So then why is Simberto holding his vote on zelblade as the 'fishier' candidate instead of moving onto zarepath? Or is this 'the devil made me do it' defense something that has only come up after my analysis of Simberto because this supposed manipulation has not informed any of his day2 decisions? The answer to your rhetoric question is obviously zarepath. I was holding my vote on zelblade because there was no lack of votes on zarepath and i could switch my vote at any point (i even stated that i would switch to zarepath lynch if zelblade does not work in this post.) Also in that post i mention that i want to avoid falling in the same traps that i did on day 1, so this is not something that i just made up after the accusations today. I find it strange that you missed that after you apparently read my filter pretty exactly, i fear that you are falling into a confirmation bias trap at the moment. | ||
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Now, this might also sound like picking an easy target given my situation, but of those, I think that Chocolate is almost definitively scum. He did not contribute anything, at all. This can easily checked by reading his filter, which has about the same proportions as that of balt11t now. I won't bother to quote these posts. There are simply almost no posts, and he only posts when he is absolutely forced to. Also, his posts do not contain anything at all. Note that even Adam who started one day and was not active for a long time, too, has more posts then Chocolate, and easily far more content. I actually think that SacredSystem looks pretty clean at the moment, even though i do not really like his style of posting. Adam is a bit strange due to lack of information, but certainly not someone one should lynch today. Bromancipate is not really conclusive due to there being multiple persons behind that name, but i don't think he is mafia at the moment. I am also still highly suspicious of zelblade, but i am getting to the point where i am asking myself if i am not just tunnelvisioning him. I will take a closer look on that. Also, i will go to sleep in about an hour, so if you want an answer to any further questions today, please ask them soon, otherwise you will get it tomorrow. | ||
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On February 01 2012 06:23 DoYouHas wrote: The 'traps' you mention in that post is pretty clearly just confirmation bias, not the belief that you were being manipulated by mafia. SO, let me put this clearly. You state that I presented a strong case against zarepath, your own logic made it stronger, you found more inconsistencies in zarepath's posting than even I pointed out, AND apparently you were convinced that zarepath had manipulated you into anti-town action day1. How does this possibly fit with your actions day2? You don't bring up this manipulation theory, you don't add your own analysis to mine, and you don't switch your vote to someone who, by your own reasoning, is far more likely to be mafia than zelblade. You are turning my words aroung in my mouth. You presented a strong case against zarepath, my own logic made it stronger UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT ZELBLADE IS RED, and yes, i found more small breadcrumbs in his posts, like for example that baby thing that just made no sense at all I am just not convinced that adding up small breadcrumbs is a good way to find mafia, because you can do that against anyone. For example, i could easily find lots of small stuff against MidnightGladius who we now know is town. Thus, adding more of that stuff would have turned an objective investigation into a witchhunt, which is really not something we as town want. I was convinced that IF YOU ARE RIGHT, i was manipulated to lead the lynches during day 1. However, i still thought that the best way to test this was to lynch zelblade. The only thing my reasoning showed was that there is some cohesion between zarepath and zelblade, and zelblade already looked very scummy day 1, so i stated that i would rather lynch him then zarepath, and, more importantly, that i did not want to lynch someone based on someone else telling me to do so, rather then the person i myself thought of as the most scummy, since that was obviously something very wrong in my day1 play. Someone tells me someone else is fishy, i look at their filter and get confirmation bias. This was something i obviously wanted to avoid. Also, i stated very clearly that i would not block a zarepath vote, but prefer one on zelblade. Thus, there was no need to change my vote at that point in time, my intention to vote was absolutely clear. I would vote upon whomever we can get a lynch on between zarepath and zelblade. The timing of that post was also just there because that happened to be when i got around to playing the game, even though you will probably use that as a reason that i am mafia anyways. | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
Also, i am now posting my vote against Chocolate in line with my above reasoning, which i wanted to avoid since it will surely be turned against me as a distraction or something of the sorts. ##vote Chocolate | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote: Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you. It is quite simple. You posted far more content then chocolate, because he posted barely any. However, you als did not post enough to make it a clear read for me. These two are not contradictionary, only because you posted more then someone else does not mean that you posted enough. I wrote it like that to point out exactly how small the amount of contribution by chocolate is. Like this Well, i don't know what i thought half a week ago. I know that that post does not make any sense, so i must have either simply put in the wrong name by accident, or at that point in time believed it is the right name. Should i make up some bullshit why putting that name there makes sense when it obviously does not? I'm sure you can give us a more substantial answer than that.[/QUOTE] No, i can't. I did not do it intentionally, it was an accident. I can speculate upon how it happened, but i can't give an exact answer because i don't know. Also, apparently there is an explanation needed as to why i think that SacredSystem is more likely town. It was mostly an afterthought in the last post, so i didn't go into details, i will do that now. He seems like a rather naive towny, but consistently so. What i mean with that is stuff like this: [spoiler] if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be now my conclusion will heavily revolve around this post by zarepath why would a townesmen need to sink to that level to prove his innocence. Also if he were in fact a townie using the detectives powers on him would be a waste, the opportunity cost of displaying his innocence is huge therefore i will set aside all my other suspicions are claim that zarepath is very likely mafia he has shown a disturbing lack of town incentives, ie random lynch, not going after fakepromise, and his claim for self investigation after the fall of zarepath, adam would go on to claim that he no longer feels i am mafia and removes his suspicion of me, and then places it on zelblade and balt11t, balt as we know would later be shot and flip mafia, and if adam were mafia he wouldnt abandon his case on me to turn his attention to balt Honestly, i could basically quote about half his filter here. It is always the same thing. [spoiler] He is basically always not thinking the second thought in the line, but also always is very convinced of his results, and follows them aggressively. At the beginning, he was rather inactive, but that has vastly improved throughout the game. This is also what most people criticize about him (next to his IM-style massacring of grammar). However, he is so consistent in this behaviour that it looks a lot more like he actually is new to the mindset mafia requires, rather then an incredibly good actor. Also, i hate to be the one pointing this out, but has CosmosXAM completely vanished? | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
On February 01 2012 07:54 Adam4167 wrote: Hang on, whaaaat. I have 'far more content' then chocolate, but I'm still considered strange due to a lack of information? Isn't that contradicting yourself in the same post? I think you better take a hard-line opinion on me, or risk being labelled as wishy-washy or vague on top of the mounting case against you. It is quite simple. You posted far more content then chocolate, because he posted barely any. However, you als did not post enough to make it a clear read for me. These two are not contradictionary, only because you posted more then someone else does not mean that you posted enough. I wrote it like that to point out exactly how small the amount of contribution by chocolate is. No, i can't. I did not do it intentionally, it was an accident. I can speculate upon how it happened, but i can't give an exact answer because i don't know. Also, apparently there is an explanation needed as to why i think that SacredSystem is more likely town. It was mostly an afterthought in the last post, so i didn't go into details, i will do that now. He seems like a rather naive towny, but consistently so. What i mean with that is stuff like this: + Show Spoiler + if he were mafia wouldnt he know? as of now i am really tempted to lean in favor of zelblade just being a noob like he claims to be now my conclusion will heavily revolve around this post by zarepath why would a townesmen need to sink to that level to prove his innocence. Also if he were in fact a townie using the detectives powers on him would be a waste, the opportunity cost of displaying his innocence is huge therefore i will set aside all my other suspicions are claim that zarepath is very likely mafia he has shown a disturbing lack of town incentives, ie random lynch, not going after fakepromise, and his claim for self investigation after the fall of zarepath, adam would go on to claim that he no longer feels i am mafia and removes his suspicion of me, and then places it on zelblade and balt11t, balt as we know would later be shot and flip mafia, and if adam were mafia he wouldnt abandon his case on me to turn his attention to balt Honestly, i could basically quote about half his filter here. It is always the same thing. He is basically always not thinking the second thought in the line, but also always is very convinced of his results, and follows them aggressively. At the beginning, he was rather inactive, but that has vastly improved throughout the game. This is also what most people criticize about him (next to his IM-style massacring of grammar). However, he is so consistent in this behaviour that it looks a lot more like he actually is new to the mindset mafia requires, rather then an incredibly good actor. Also, i hate to be the one pointing this out, but has CosmosXAM completely vanished? | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
I think that i have explained everything people might find suspicious about me enough. Now, i hope that enough people believe me that i do not die today. And, while me not dieing is obviously an important goal i try to accomplish, since it would be bad for town to lynch a towny, it is also not the only goal i have. Because this game is not only about me surviving, but more importantly about finding mafia. I will of course still answer any remaining questions you might have about my behaviour, but i don't feel like i can accomplish a whole lot by only talking about the only person of whom i am absolutely and 100% sure that he is town, which is me. Thus, I will not waste the rest of this day which might very well be my last here by doing nothing useful at all. And regarding DT checks, it is very important to realise that those are at best unreliable in a game where there might be both a godfather and a miller. While they are of course important in finding out stuff, they should not be seen as dogmatic truth beyond reason. I am also quite sure that someone will now explain that pointing this out is totally scummy, when it is, in fact, not. Don't think you are the first one to think about this, i, too, was a bit surprised by the sudden accusations towards me at the beginning of a new day, and came to the conclusion that i might be a miller. However, i also realised that it would not be particularly smart to expose that idea to town and thus expose our DT. Chocolate, however, apparently did not think that far. | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
Firstly, as i pointed out before, Chocolate Not really a lot of posts, and those posts consist of nearly no content, and none of that content is new. Acting like he is concerned about lurkers day1, and then lurking like no other for the rest of the game. Only ever talking when directly attacked. When posting, he mostly points out obvious things noone can object to, and tries to avoid antagonising anybody. Slooshs point about his day 3 reads also still stands. Just read his filter. Second, Bromancipate I will go into a bit more detail here. Similarly not enough content, and especially not a lot of new ideas. States he would be back for new developements before the lynch Day1 , but completely ignores the zarepath case. In this this post, take a look at how he goes to great lengths to explain stuff about why a townie would never ask for a DT investigation, and acts like it is his own idea. Also note how this is after the point where zarepath is already dead. And now take a look at the end of this post by DoYouHas, which has the exact same ideas in it, but two pages earlier. Most of the rest of his posts are explanations why he does not post as much, or references to his last game. Other then that, there is one case against SS, which is also not very controversial material, and, if my theory is correct, also is only an attack on a towny. Recently, we have minor defense for zelblade, which could be an attempt to pull a zarepath and look good by defending a towny who still gets lynched. And then we have the whole list business, which is basically textbook scum play, act like you are contributing, producing large posts which look impressive, but basically don't have any information in them, at all. Also, those lists don't even contribute to finding scum, they just analyse who people believe is scum, or who you can easily get lynched without a lot of problems. This sounds more like information mafia would be interested in, then town. Also, his reasoning for this: Bromancipate Lists are only scummy if they have no purpose and you provide nothing else. There is a very clear reason for mine, I want a succesful lynch and that requires people being aware of others intentions. We will have a real problem if we don't narrow our lynch candidates to two or at most three. Chocolate is certainly not helping himself but it is hard to tell whether he is in a similar boat to zelblade, just not sure how to post. His lurking, voting patterns and his determination to respond only when required is really what is making him look bad. He can redeem himself if he contributes as we have bigger fish to fry. SS however is still responding in an aggressive manner to being questioned and has subsequently disappeared. This is just wrong. Not only does his list not help in accomplishing those stated goal, it also gives the impression that it is more important how many people have someone on their suspicious list, instead of actually having good arguments WHY that person is suspicious. Also, he is linking Chocolate with zelblade, probably in the hopes of zelblade getting lynched and Chocolate looking good subsequently. Also, note how this theory lines up perfectly with the votes both on day 1 and day 2. On day 1, we have mafia split 2/2 between both lurker lynch targets, which we now assume are innocent. Then, when zarepath is targeted, they focus on FakePromise, inflating his vote count with 3 mafia votes to make others who just want a lynch more likely to target him, while zarepath keeps his own vote away to stay a bit less suspicious. On day 2, they are both among the last people to vote and lynch zarepath. Interestingly enough, zelblade is not on that mafia list. That is not because i necessarily think that he is cleared, i just noticed that this mafia team makes a whole lot more sense then any that has zelblade in it. | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
On February 02 2012 03:48 DoYouHas wrote: The thing is, if I was just trying to pressure Simberto, this is the point where I would back off. The quality of his posting has gone up since my accusation, and some of his defense actually sounds pretty good. However, I want to get a lynch on Simberto, so I go back to my original case against him and it still holds strong. The three pillars of that case
2. Simberto has a scummy voting record. 3. Simberto has had logical flaws that favor mafia. are the things that Simberto has had the weakest defenses against. So I am going to hold my vote on Simberto and I hope 2+ more of you will vote him as well. I think 1 is not a good reason to lynch me. It is true that i had an influential position, but i also did not have scum reads of which i was reasonably sure. I never felt confident enough of any read to reasonably push a lynch from it. Maybe i should have used that influence to pressure people more effectively, but that is hardly damning evidence. 2 is true for about half the remaining town. 3 is important, but really only interesting if you go into more details with that. I feel that i have explained my reasoning at all points you mentioned. If i have not, point out which i missed or where you do not find my answers satisfactory. As an alternative, i propose that we lynch Chocolate today. I have made my reasons why i think he is scum clear in my above post, and also note that you will never gain more information on him then you have now because he posts about 1 post without content a day. But you will always gain more information on me, since i post stuff. This also means that if you really want to lynch me, it is more useful to do that later since that means you have a larger body of information that suddenly increases in relevance when i flip green. Of course, i am not really a fan of splitting town like this, because even though at the moment we have a pretty sound numerical advantage, this still means that we give a lot of the decision-making power in a lynch to mafia. But to me it is still better when there is only one of the two choices which is a clear error instead of accepting my death, which i absolutely know is bad for us. But i still hope that we can agree on lynching Chocolate instead, whom i find much more obviously scummy then myself, and for whom i think most people agree that he looks scummy, too. While I might be a more dangerous mafia if i were mafia, i also don't really see the case against me having anywhere near as much substance as the one against Chocolate has. So the question is if you would rather lynch someone who might or might not be mafia, and is more dangerous if he is mafia, but also more useful if he is not, or someone who very, very likely is mafia, but not really destructive if he is, and not really helpful if he is not. Of course, i also still hope that people realise that i am actually innocent, but even if you are just not really convinced about where i stand, Chocolate is a better target. | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
Also, i think that you need to be a bit more careful in your investigations, it seems to me that some here start an investigation with "he is guilty, how can i prove that?", instead of "is he mafia or town, what can i find out?", which is obviously a pretty bad way to go about things. | ||
Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11033 Posts
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