EPTFirst time playing mafia, hope this will be fun and i am not too stupid.
Newbie Mini Mafia III
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
First time playing mafia, hope this will be fun and i am not too stupid. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
On January 25 2012 07:16 Bromancipate wrote: Fellow townies, the scum has started breeding! They have increased their number by 30% in the 24 hours alone. We must stop this pestilence and cleanse our once pure city of their filth. Our safe sex program has done little to stem the flow of mafia babies, we must seek drastic methods. They will swing from the gallows. They will swing from the lamposts. They will swing from the slightly elevated mayor's office; and we will never surrender! For one, for all. BROMANCIPATION! Oh my god, they are multiplying exponentially! If they continue at this rate, this whole thread will be red within less then a week! And a week after that, the whole subforum. And within a month, this whole site will be red as blood. We need to quickly test whether or not shampoo helps. If it doesn't, we need to nuke everything. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
First of, "randomly" lynching in the way zarepath proposed sounds strange. First of all, it is not truly random if we discuss the person we are lynching together with the random lynch. This would actually give mafia a very, very easy day 1, which is not something we want. They either just stay middle profile and lynch the person at hand with low danger to themselves, because they would only have to support the system of a random lynch, and not the actual lynch of a person. And if the "random" targeted person is one of theirs, they just have to state that they are against random lynching in general. If we would want to lynch randomly, we should first decide that we do that, and then somehow randomize whom we vote for afterwards. However, since we don't have any reliable way of randomizing as a group, it would always ultimately be up to one single person, so when we say we lynch randomly, we basically give the decision of whom we lynch to one single man, who might or might not randomize. That does not really sound extraordinarely smart in my opinion, especially since we even give him a very good excuse should he lynch an innocent. So instead of having to guess one mafia, we now have to guess one townie only to even get a random lynch. Next, we have the possibility of not lynching. While this gives additional information for our first lynch, it also gives the mafia a free kill. I don't really like doing that. Then we have a policy lynch on a hard lurker. I think this is actually not a really good idea. All the mafia needs to do to avoid this is post a few more or less interesting posts to not be hardlurker, and they get a free kill with nearly no information for us out of it. They don't even need to bandwagon or use their combined influence. So, we are left with talking, and finding a good target for a lynch. This is generally a good idea, but we have to keep in mind that mafia is probably trying to influence our aggression onto one of ours (which also gives us more information lateron) And despite the general strangeness (scumminess?) of zelblades post, he still has a point in that bar extraordinary circumstances (which i think are actually not that unlikely, the mafia density leads me to believe that we probably have some blues, as others have pointed out before, too), we only have 2 mislynches. So if we lynch, we should lynch in a way that gives us maximum information, so no random or policy lynch. At the moment, i would say that zelblade looks pretty strange, as sloosh has pointed out. Of course he has to defend himself, but afterwards he first argues for a lurker lynch, and then in his next post points out that we need to use our mislynches very carefully, since we only got a very limited amount of those. A policy lynch is not a lynch that gives a lot of information, so those both posts contradict each other very much. And the "everyone needs to post more" part looks like trying to post more without actually saying much in my opinion. However, i would also like to hear more from the people who have not yet posted anything. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
If i am not totally mistaken, we need to produce information. If we just play by chance, we will lose. Thus, i would really like to here more peoples take on zelblade, who in my opinion looks a bit strange at the moment. That, of course, includes zelblade himself, but also SacredSystem, Chocolate, DoYouHas, FakePromise, bal11t, CosmosXAM and TheFearedBeing, all of whom have barely contributed at all so far. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
On January 25 2012 19:30 zarepath wrote: The only problem with that is you confuse your actual detective for mafia just because he operates on hidden knowledge. The detective has an incentive to operate on hidden knowledge, while the mafia has no hidden knowledge to go off of except who else is mafia, and they're not going to talk about that. Also, I would save theorytalk for when it's actually applicable. Otherwise it looks like you're just making empty posts. "No hidden knowledge except who else is mafia". That is the most important hidden knowledge in the whole game. Of course they will not explicitly mention it, but the whole process of finding hidden knowledge is based on people slipping something they don't consciously mean to say. You can't just turn of knowledge of something, so everything you know will unconsciously go into every post you make. So if it becomes obvious that someone is pulling knowledge from some source that is not this thread, that at least makes him a person of interest. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
But, and that is very important, this also means we can not NoLynch. If we nolynch, and don't get any saves, we can only mislynch once. Since everyone feels like saying this, i will just emphasize it again. Talk. At the moment, we still have 6 people who have basically not participated at all, and that does just not work. We can't policy-lynch 6 people, so if you don't talk, you actively hurt us. The only persons who have any reason to lurk are mafia, but since we have 6 people without posts with any substance, at least 2 of those are doing that against their own interest. Now, instead of pointless policy, lets talk about persons. CosmosXAM is suspicious. First he is so enthusiastic before the game: Really excited for this, can't wait till 9 :D And then, as soon as the game starts, there is nothing anymore. I find that highly noteworthy. This does not mean that i see zelblade cleared, he is also pretty high on my list of suspicious persons, but if i had to decide on a lynch now, it would be CosmosXAM, since he is both suspicious AND a lurker. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote: If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating). Also, this post that snuck in above me sounds strange in my opinion. I think pretty much everyone agrees that we should not random lynch, so why bring it up again to debunk it again? And other than that it contains absolutely no new information, for me this looks a lot like a post for postings sake, and not an actual contribution towards our goals. This just feels scummy. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
And that (no random lynching) includes zarepath who has also already stated that he does not believe in random lynching anymore. So why did you bring him up again? | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
Don't get me wrong, i agree with you, i just want to prevent us from going from talking about useless stuff to not talking at all. Generally speaking, anything where there are disagreements is good, anything that just states that we are all buddies and everyone loves each other and thinks exactly the same is bad. (As long as it is related to the game) Thus, i would propose that instead of meta-meta talk we should talk about lynchings and plans. Since noone has a plan (me included), lets talk about good lynch targets for today. On my list, this would be zelblade CosmosXAM Rest of the lurkers (TheFearedBeing, DoYouHas, SacredSystem, FakePromise, balt11t) There are other people on whom we do not have a lot of information, but who at least have posted something so far. These might or might not be good targets too, but in my opinion those first two are the most suspicious from what i have seen so far, with zelblade being the most suspicious person who has posted so far, and CosmosXAM being the most suspicious person who has not yet posted. So lets talk about them. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
However, with the speed with which we progress at the moment, i think we should seriously talk about our lynching now if we want to get it done in time. In my opinion, since a NoLynch is pretty much as bad as a mislynch in our current state, while providing less information, we should lynch someone. As a have said before, my candidate for a good lynch at the moment would be zelblade. Also, he does not seem inclined to defend himself. This is based mostly on: On January 25 2012 15:21 zelblade wrote: Regarding the setup, 4 scum to 9 town seems like a lot of scum to me. This would lead me to believe that scum KP is probably 1, as anything else will probably be excessive. As such, we probably have only 2 mislynches before LYLO, unless there is a medic prot of some sort of course. Thus we need to make sure that we use these lynches well, and use logical reasoning to pin down the lynch onto the scum. To town, we need to post more, as more posts = more contributions, and would allow us to make analysis and thus help to pin down who the scum are. Distraction + "to town", which is very suspicious, as zarepath pointed out, and On January 26 2012 00:14 zelblade wrote: If i wasnt clear here, i apologise. What i meant to say i that we ought to lynch a lurker if we cannot find a better targert at the end of the day, and that it should be done only if there is/are no clear targert(s) at the end of day 1, instead of using RNG (or in this case, reverse-alphabetical order) to determine who is our day 1 lynch (which i believe zarepath seems to be advocating). Bringing up a long-resolved point to distract the discussion. Sure, this is not the strongest case one can build, but it is day 1 after all. And in my opinion it is the strongest case we have at the moment. And sure, there could be lots of mafia hiding between the lurkers, but there is nothing one can realistically do againt that, since i don't think all or even most of the mafia are lurking that hard (sounds stupid), and we can't realistically policy-lynch 5-6 people, so the only thing one can do about that is hope that they start talking to us or get modkilled. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
Other then that, i am going to bed now, i hope for lots of juicy posts in the morning. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
I am still of the opinion that zelblade looks scummiest of the people who are participating. Reasons for that are what i posted in my last post, the apologeticness pointed out by DoYouHas, and the being apologetic for being apologetic and pointing himself as a noob here: The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. I have others on the list of people who are actually writing which i find look a bit weird, too. And i would love to go into that and concentrate on those. However, we really can't at the moment, not with the amount of hardlurking going on. For example, we simply can't let FakePromise get away with what he is doing at the moment. He has not posted a single point of interest yet, mostly just half-assed numbers like this gems: I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. This seriously does not have any information at it, at all. Except maybe that it was actually zarepath who posted the first randomlynch proposal, so maybe this is an underhand and very stupid try to avoid attention and deflect it to the most conspicious person around, i don't know. Same goes for CosmosXAM who says nothing, except for apologies for being inactive and very, very safe statements that noone could find a problem with. Or Balt11t, who also has not yet posted anything with content except safe accusations against FakePromise and gets into absolutely inconsequential banter with SacredSystem. Or Sacredsystem, who does the same, and answers for other people, too. I have not even mentioned FearedBeing, because the best thing we can hope for at the moment is for him to be modkilled. I would really love to concentrate on suspicous people instead of inactive ones, but with that amount of inactives, we really can't, because that would show to mafia that the only thing they need to do to be safe is not post. So if any of those inactives are town, PLEASE, PLEASE, post. And don't only post to post, post interesting things. Things that make your stance clear, analysis, new things. Not just repetition of what someone else said or inconsequential stuff like links to the voting thread. Things that force you to take a stance, things that you can be called out on later. This gives us more information to rule you out as mafia. One other thing is that although there is a voting thread, i believe that we should still post our votes here on the main thread so that we will be notified whenever someone votes. As for my own vote, i am still waiting for fakepromise's proper response. If it doesnt come, my vote will probably go to him. With this i agree. Even though it is another nonconsequential thing you can't see anything out of, it is at least useful. Of course the votes that get counted are the ones in the voting thread, but by posting your votes in both places you are making this thread easier to follow, and if you hide your votes, you are conspicious. ##vote FakePromise | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
Honestly, the vibe i got of FakePromise is that of an uninterested and incompetent townie, too. But his absolute refusal to respond swings that towards scummy or stupid. True, stupid is more probable, but we can not really accept stupidity and inactivity as a defense, that makes the game far to easy for mafia. Also, it is very hard to differantiate a very stupid townie from a very stupid mafia, especially when they don't really post anything. Also, zarepath, note that most of your argument is WIFOM, and that you flipflop between "mafia would tell him to act, but not help him to be safer", and "noone helps him", which are obviously contradictionary. Even further, you invalidate that whole argument by helping him with this post. What we have at the moment is a systemic problem, and that is that we have 4 people who barely post at all, and even more who post only very small amounts. If i were to hunt for mafia, i would probably look among the "barely more" people, who post just enough to not be branded as lurkers, but not enough to hang themselves open in the spotlight, like Chocolate or balt11t. However, before we can do any real mafia hunting, that systemic problem needs to be addressed. Because we can't just ignore people if they don't post enough. Zelblade is still very suspicious, too. The problem i have here is that there is absolutely no rational reason to be a hard lurker. Even if are not active all the time, at least contribute when you are active. Just you reading this topic does not help us at all. If you are pro-town, you need to post. Sadly, this means that everyone who does not post a lot is not acting pro-town. If you are not posting, you are hurting us, on the same level as mafia does. Not only do you make us waste lynches on people we have no information on, you also make us spend the whole day just talking about inactivity instead of mafia. We can't just ignore the lurkers because that would turn the game into easymode for the mafia, but we also can't only focus on them because it is a big waste of time. For example, Fakepromise now has 3 votes on him, but he is not even talking, at all. So all we know is that he is inactive. He could be an inactive townie, or inactive mafia. Noone knows, because he does not talk. Both mafia and town SHOULD defend themselves in that situation. If it continues like this, i will probably just vote on the lurker with the most votes on him when i go to sleep. Sadly the end of the day is in the middle of the night for me, so i can't be around then. To not waste all of this time talking only about inactivity (which is the best thing to happen for mafia), i will think about my mafia reads on the active people, and post that in a second post very soon after this one. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
Zelblade looks absurdly scummy at this point, really even so much that i might even favor him over lynching a lurker. He posted a lot in the beginning, his posts made him look scummy, and now he does nothing but post apologetic things and attacks onto the easy target FakePromise. Take a look at this gem: The reason why I have been so apologetic is simply because it is my 1st game of mafia. I am not really sure how to approach this game, and am quite unsure of myself - that I may be making nooby mistakes. Apparently being overly apologetic is a nooby mistake, and i will try to correct that. He apologizes for being apologetic. Really? AND he paints himself as a noob. Why should a towny do that? As town, i want people to trust me, and carefully consider what i say, not take me for a noob who has nothing important to say. However, "being a noob" is a wonderful excuse for inconsistencies that might result from mafia trying to act as town. The rest of his only post today was used to specifically attack FakePromise, who is already in pretty deep problems anyways. Chocolate looks strange. Not only is he active on TL, but not contributing here at all, almost all of his posts consist of zero content. He is saying that he tries to make Lurkers post, while he pretty much lurks very hard himself. Other then that, he did not post anything except an attack on the random lynching plan. I would really like some kind of statement from those 3 guys. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11507 Posts
Found some time before my day starts to read the newer posts. Since Simberto seems like the most pro town here, I want to ask for his/her opinion. I think I have a substantial case (better than the FakePromise case), but it is against someone who is slightly above that "barely more" level. Would it be good for us to go for this person or is it better for us to really pressure the harder lurkers? Hopefully will find sometime during the day to post, but if not I'll be there before the deadline for sure. Hm, that is an interesting question. In any case you should post your case before the night ends to avoid a mafia hit killing information, that is for sure (We can talk during the night and mafia hits hit in the morning if i am not totally mistaken). However, if you have a really good case, i think that going after that is better than a random/policy lynch. But you need to be careful that you don't post it too late. Better posting it during the night than in the last few hours of the day and confuse people into a nolynch. I am very convinced that we should lynch today, and if you post it at a time when the europeans can no longer react to it, i don't think you will get a majority lynch on a new person going, especially considering the amount of lurking/inactivity going on. Also, i would suggest asking a coach about that, they might have something to consider that i don't. But if you can't contact one and post your case before european midnight, i think you should better post it earlier then wasting too much time. But until we see that case and it is good, lurkers are still the prime targets. | ||
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