EPTTo be optimistic, perhaps the 9:4: innocent:mafia setup would reduce the probability of a roleblocker being in the game. I suppose we'll just have to see what happens.
Newbie Mini Mafia III - Page 2
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
To be optimistic, perhaps the 9:4: innocent:mafia setup would reduce the probability of a roleblocker being in the game. I suppose we'll just have to see what happens. | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
Looking through the mafia QT, I'm kind of surprised that you guys didn't push me harder early on. It seemed like you were all ready to do it, but I suppose you were okay with letting FakePromise die. I'm not sure how I would have responded under actual pressure :D | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
1) Call a shot on balt11t at the beginning of the Night and look at the town's response. a) If it became obvious from balt11t's response that he was indeed mafia, and that the town was in favor of lynching him regardless, I would switch targets and shoot Bromancipate instead, claiming this in the thread shortly before the Day post. b) If I was wrong about balt11t, and he claimed a blue role and provided useful information, I would switch my shot to Bromancipate, knowing that I was probably going to be killed by the mafia during the night. The town could sort out the claim afterward. c) If no particularly useful information came out of the exchange, I would play it safe and not switch targets. In the end, it was pretty clear that balt11t wouldn't be alive for much longer no matter what happened, but I thought about it a little bit more. On the one hand, if I had been right with both of my reads, it would have essentially wrapped up the game. On the other hand, had I been wrong about either balt11t or Bromancipate, or heaven forbid both, the town would have been thrown into chaos and the endgame would have been much more messy. As the town was in a pretty strong position following the first medic save and zarepath's lynch, I ultimately decided to play it safe. Of course, it turned out that my reads were right, but I don't want to be a victim of hindsight bias. What would you have done as a vigilante in that position? Would it have been right to trust my reads and go for the big play, or is it better to just play safely? Alternatively, would I have been better off not calling my shot on balt11t in the first place and either holding onto my shot, or still shooting him and claiming it on the next Day? | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
On February 10 2012 14:21 slOosh wrote: Ohhhh ... I thought it was some intricate bussing that wouldn't go through but set up a good failsafe dynamic of giving the surviving mafias town cred ... Would it be good for me to apply Occam's razor more often? That would be quite a coup if they had planned and pulled it off properly. I think it might have been too much of a risk, though, especially if the votes do start to come in, and then you're suddenly forced to either back off, or let your partner die. Even if you do, you don't earn credibility by suggesting bad odds and just "randomly" happening to be right. I raised a hypothesis in the obs QT about a plan where the mafia team defer their first hit in order to have a member claim the hit on the subsequent day as a veteran. In the absence of having a clear blue target, what would be the downsides of such a feint? | ||
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
. I will definitely keep it in mind, especially because the only way to disrupt it is to play to the town's favor and forcing more mafia mistakes.I wish that some of the other players would come back and comment. It would be unfortunate if their first game were also their last  | ||
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