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I'm not trying to put words in your mouth, I'm trying to understand what you're saying.
If by metric you mean "what we should talk about", why do you need L to tell you what to talk about? By metric I assume L means "the factors by which I decide who I'm going to vote for and support a lynch of"..which is still going to be useful tomorrow; more useful tomorrow in my opinion because if he knew and shared that 'metric' today, scum could change their behavior accordingly to avoid votes over the course of today and tomorrow.
If you read his post you don't need to ASSUME what L means by metric, he lays it out in his post about RNGs:
RNG doesn't force people to make a move one way or another and provides less information regarding people's inclinations than having someone pick a metric for a day 1 play to be made. The "shoot the inactive" metric was the standard when games were substantially larger, people talked less, and the metric itself was generally not held onto, just used as a prod to get people talking. As far as I'm concerned, RNG just cedes the first day's information content unless someone with a particularly interesting role gets selected.
and then talks about the use of the metric (in this case, RNG) in regards to obtaining information
Please tell me how a random target provides more information than one who we can pick? It seems like by definition that RNG eliminates at least one layer of information: the choice. And there's no real benefit to the tradeoff in terms of preventing someone from hiding their kill attempt: If someone wants to get someone in particular put under the gun, they can fake a RNG call to make them the presumed target.
So by metric he means a baseline "statement" from which we can then use to create discussion and gather information. He argues that RNG is a bad "metric" since it gives less information than the example of "lynch lurkers" and then says that he'll be thinking up a new metric tomorrow, a time that is less then optimal to have a "metric" at.
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On December 21 2011 19:11 syllogism wrote:
I thought it may have been a trap to see who would immediately jump on him but that doesn't really work when there's no follow up, which may be what chaoser was alluding to. That or triggers hurrr
well...now that you send that, there's definitely no use to me waiting for anything since if he's mafia he can be all like "yes, that's EXACTLY what I was doing but I was just waiting for more time to pass before I said I was baiting" -_-
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On December 21 2011 22:34 syllogism wrote:
If there is plenty of information to go by in the thread, who else do you find scummy?
On December 21 2011 22:37 Palmar wrote:
Why do you think I decided to go after GM instead of say... Sheth, Kita, Foolishness or GGQ VE?
On December 21 2011 22:44 VisceraEyes wrote:
@Syllo
SLJ, Foolishness, and chaoser.
@Palmar
Why don't you tell me? I wouldn't want to spoil the surprise for you.
On December 21 2011 22:55 VisceraEyes wrote:
Hell, I'd be thrilled if you gave a reason why you voted for GM vs your other scum reads BC and L. Anything really.
Guys, I'd like to remind everyone that the mafia thread if NOT AIM. While sometimes all you got is one-liner questions to ask to get some clarification on a matter, please keep this type of posting to a minimum. I don't want 5 pages of back and forth of one liners that are hard as fuck to follow cause everyone is responding to everyone else and I can't correctly follow the line of discussion.
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Hi Palmar. Are you making a conscious effort this game not to bully others into following the Palmar train? This is actually bothering me a little. The last 2 games I've played with you when you were town on day 1 you pushed people hard. I mean really hard. Like threatening to kill them hard. Pushing to the point of others shooting townies or blowing you up. Is that Palmar playing this game. Cause that's the townie Palmar I know and love. The one that picks a lynch target and brow beats town into voting for them. The one that screams at people to role claim or die. Ya that Palmar. Not this Palmar. I don't know this Palmar. What are you Palmar? And what have you done with townie Palmar?
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@Chaoser: If I need to say something that fits into one line I'm going to keep posting that.
@Jackal58: In theory this town is less dumb than the average TL town... although I'm starting to doubt that now.
I'm trying to get GM lynched. How do you like that idea?
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On December 22 2011 01:44 Palmar wrote:
@Chaoser: If I need to say something that fits into one line I'm going to keep posting that.
@Jackal58: In theory this town is less dumb than the average TL town... although I'm starting to doubt that now.
I'm trying to get GM lynched. How do you like that idea?
GM and Mr. Wiggles both give me the willies. LSB does to an extent as well. But LSB is due to his foolish assertion that Foolishness is too good to be lynched. We used that exact same premise to save Annul on day 1 of 48. I can't point to any one thing that GMarshall or Mr.Wiggles have posted that I can point to and say aha. But they both bother me. I supose it's for much the same reason you are bothering me. They both seem to lack that townie drive I see both of them lay with.
Oh and GGQ is scummy too.
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United States22154 Posts
So, I'm not even caught up with the thread at this point, (I'm on like page 16), I just wanted to say that I've been occupied with other things and haven't had a chance to really do anything yet. I'll be trying to give the town something to work with when I get out of work in about 4 hours. Until then I have spreadsheets to sort and other such lovely joys.
Sorry people, I hate to lurk, I'll do my best to make it up to you guys when I get back, but yesterday I was incredibly busy.
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On December 22 2011 01:58 GMarshal wrote:
So, I'm not even caught up with the thread at this point, (I'm on like page 16), I just wanted to say that I've been occupied with other things and haven't had a chance to really do anything yet. I'll be trying to give the town something to work with when I get out of work in about 4 hours. Until then I have spreadsheets to sort and other such lovely joys.
Sorry people, I hate to lurk, I'll do my best to make it up to you guys when I get back, but yesterday I was incredibly busy.
Can you at least stop long enough to tell us if you actually intend to continue pushing a policy lynch on sandroba/curu?
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United States22154 Posts
On December 22 2011 02:01 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 01:58 GMarshal wrote:
So, I'm not even caught up with the thread at this point, (I'm on like page 16), I just wanted to say that I've been occupied with other things and haven't had a chance to really do anything yet. I'll be trying to give the town something to work with when I get out of work in about 4 hours. Until then I have spreadsheets to sort and other such lovely joys.
Sorry people, I hate to lurk, I'll do my best to make it up to you guys when I get back, but yesterday I was incredibly busy. Can you at least stop long enough to tell us if you actually intend to continue pushing a policy lynch on sandroba/curu?
No idea, haven't caught up with the thread, not if there are any real candidates to lynch though (or if I can peg any, really). I'm curious to see who jumped on my hydra wagon, too. The thing with policy lynches is they are good and dandy as an initial point of discussion, but they suck from an information perspective. Its always interesting to see who jumps on it though.
Now, I need to eat food and then do work.
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United States2095 Posts
On December 22 2011 00:24 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2011 13:51 Foolishness wrote:
I will support BC in everything at this point because he used the word asshattery. Foolishness trolling -_- Apparently we're not allowed to touch him because he is too good? I haven't seen any attempt from him to establish himself as a pro-town player. Where is the effort? :/ I find it strange that BC comes in and tells Palmar to step up his game considering he only has one post, while complaining about him discussing neutral topics. He just finished spending three paragraphs describing why RNG is worse than analysis. Of course it is. I was worried Palmar not really pushing his influence on the lynch at first, but he seems to have picked things up. chaoser, would you mind explaining what you think GM is doing? And, GM what are you doing? Finally..... ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xTYrk.jpg)
Lol cute! I'm here, I'm trying to read through everything. I went to the doctors yesterday, I have a sinus infection and I'm on some pretty sleep inducing drugs. So I'm trying to read everything here its just difficult at the moment. I only ask that you give me 1 more in game day to step up posting here. I realize its very important for everyone to get a read on me and for me to give my oppinion so I will do all of that. I appreciate you bringing up that I'm not posting much here Kita because I need to be.
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@chaoser Radfield had the same concern about my meta in XLVIII, he made a case supported by the idea that my town meta was tunneling people as hard as I could and then he voted me. We were both town in that game. My meta has changed, I don't tunnel anymore (at least not that much).
I think VisceraEyes needs to get off Palmar's back. Right now the town is in a state where I don't think we're likely to catch scum. A lot of people are lurking instead of trying to establish themselves as scum. I think VisceraEyes has a valid point that a lot of the veterans here play like Radfield plays, he likes to sit back and watch the show and then get his reads from unsuspecting scum who think they're doing all fine. We can't all do that though, for obvious reasons.
I think what a scum would do in this situation is not post a lot. Scum is very happy with the current state of the town so they don't want to disturb it and the amount of lurkers make it easy for them to hide in there. This is why I don't think that lynching Palmar or VisceraEyes for that matter is a good idea, they're both townies trying to make the atmosphere better. One does it better than the other but that's besides the point.
I think GMarshal can do a lot better, I have only played with him in one game but in that game he made outrageous posts like this one. This isn't a meta behavioral argument, this is an argument about how much GMarshal contributes when he finally signs up, and this is an argument about how skilled GMarshal really is, even though the case was wrong I think it took significant skill just to come up with it!
I don't like this post:
On December 22 2011 02:12 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On December 22 2011 02:01 Palmar wrote:On December 22 2011 01:58 GMarshal wrote:
So, I'm not even caught up with the thread at this point, (I'm on like page 16), I just wanted to say that I've been occupied with other things and haven't had a chance to really do anything yet. I'll be trying to give the town something to work with when I get out of work in about 4 hours. Until then I have spreadsheets to sort and other such lovely joys.
Sorry people, I hate to lurk, I'll do my best to make it up to you guys when I get back, but yesterday I was incredibly busy. Can you at least stop long enough to tell us if you actually intend to continue pushing a policy lynch on sandroba/curu? No idea, haven't caught up with the thread, not if there are any real candidates to lynch though (or if I can peg any, really). I'm curious to see who jumped on my hydra wagon, too. The thing with policy lynches is they are good and dandy as an initial point of discussion, but they suck from an information perspective. Its always interesting to see who jumps on it though. Now, I need to eat food and then do work.
He doesn't know if he'll continue pushing SamuelLJackson, even though it seems like it was actually just a plan to see who would jump on his hydra wagon. I don't think anybody jumped on it though, and it seems rather optimistic with such a plan in a game full of veterans like this. How would you rate that plan Mr. Wiggles?
That said, I think there are better lynches than GMarshal today. I don't doubt that GMarshal is actually busy because he seems like a nice guy and nice guys don't lie. Just like Liquid`Sheth, he seems like a nice guy too so he wouldn't lie about a sinus infection keeping him away from mafia. I'm on a train and my internet goes out in 5 kilometers (screw you imperials) but I'll have more time when I get home, maybe someone can point out a couple of people I could look into? Preferably lurkers like GGQ.
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establish themselves as town*
duh
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RE: Metric
Well, enough time's passed and the thread's still slow. You'll notice in my previous post that I spelled out 'crumb' with the first letters in my first line next to a comment about the thread speed because the speed of the thread is very telling. No doubt there are a bunch of people who are in finals (like me!) and no doubt there are a bunch of people who are busy doing Christmas shopping.
And yet its still oddly quiet.
So lets talk about why: Triggers. If this game does have an accelerant, which it seems overwhelmingly likely that it does, then some triggers toggle kill powers. Given the theme of the game, it seems as if this mechanism is a core defining feature of the format, which means that there are likely more than the standard 1-2 vig hits available. Since there's going to be lots of discussion about this, I'm going to refer to mafia kills as 'hits', lynches as lynches and vig kill abilities as 'shots'.
If this is the case, then people have a substantial reason to feel terrified; the WaW games as well as bang bang mafia show that when there are a lot of people with guns, games become very mafia favored as townies shoot each other to death repeatedly and mafia wait out the bullet storm. Because of the relative slow speed of DT checks and other forms of solid evidence, there's reduced risk to attracting lynch attention compared to attracting crazed shooters. Given my previous note that all players who have made implicit roleclaims have done so via triggers, and due to the fact that Ace and Ver are behind this setup, there are probably more guns lying around than less.
If that's the case, then everyone is going to be playing tight lipped, but in different ways. Trigger hitters are going to be attempting to bait other people into satisfying their hit requirements. Medics and DTs are going to be doing their best to avoid any form of negative rivalries. Greens are probably going to be the most outspoken townies insofar as role is divorced from personality, and reds are going to be exaggerated versions of the Medic/DT reticence to engage because their biggest fear is being shot, not being lynched.
Mafia have 5 players including the traitor. Assuming they have 2 kp (which makes sense for a game of this size), they win assuming they evade being lynched on day 4 (D1:15:5, N1:14:5, D2:12:5, N2:11:5, D3 :5,N3:8:5,D4:6:5 lylo) Assuming mafia shoot the traitor or that we hang 1 mafia we end with D4:7:4, N4:6:4, D5:4:4, which means that we're still lylo on DAY FOUR even if we correctly lynch on day 3. Day 4 lylo assumes medics don't prot a target (they rarely do) and that we don't hit 2 correct lynches in a row. Day 1 has something silly like a 98% town lynch rate, which means that to lose because of lynches mafia needs to get caught on both days 2 and 3 which is absurd because its a joke to set up false leads off a planned day 2 lynch.
Hence why we probably have a bunch of guns and why they're afraid of bullets and not rope.
So, from the get go I'd eliminate most of the players who have been voting for others, those who are aggressively asking questions of others as potential targets for the day 1 lynch. Additionally, I'd put more suspicion on players who are overly apologetic at this stage in the game. That said, i wouldn't link suspicion to post count or length directly because there's an impetus from everyone to minimize their exposure to triggers. That said, voting is less of a town-tell than aggravating people; voting is important insofar as it establishes a rivalry.
Ironically, while I'm writing this up, we get a sizable dollop of the 'make no waves' theory in the form of Liquid Sheth's most recent post with overt apology and an overwhelmingly conciliatory attitude.
I'm somewhat more conflicted with respect to Palmar because he fit this profile to a T prior to me going to sleep last night, then he started contributing. I'm not sure if that's because people started singling him out as a bullshit one-line poster and actually voting for him on that basis, but if the above is correct he'd probably not have been willing to engage VE for that long as mafia, and consequently VE is probably town because he pushed through an overt warning of Palmar's regarding him becoming annoying and kept on him to the point of voting for him.
VE is essentially the green/bluest person in the town in my eyes at the moment because of this.
I'll go through the entire list of players and separate the players into groups based upon whether or not they're being evasive, but not right now. I have 4k words to write and I have 26 hours to do it, so I'm outta here for at least an hour and bit. Deal with it.gif
RE: Hydra Query
Short answer: I read a few of your older games while I was still actively following certain games and I did a quick search through your histories after someone explained what the fuck a hydra was to see how you had performed recently. Wasn't very extensive, though. Just was doing a relative power level check for the game's unknowns because I had been told that we'd have a bunch of good players, then I end up not knowing half of the people in here.
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Emoticons decided to take a shit on my notation, so here it is repackaged.
(Day 1 15 : 5, Night 1 14 : 5, Day 2 12 : 5, Night 2 11 : 5, Day 3 9 : 5, Night 3 8 : 5 Day 4 6 : 5 lylo) Assuming mafia shoot the traitor or that we hang 1 mafia we end with Day 4 7 : 4, Night 4 6 : 4, Day 5 4 : 4.
The take home message is that this game blows chunks for us from a strict lynch-to-win perspective.
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None of that sounds actually useful as too much is being assumed and there is no reason to believe the assumptions are more likely/accurate than traditional reads. In fact, a lot of the reads you stated overlap with typical scum behaviour.
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Just because I hate shit like that L
I've played 25 games I think now on this site, 10 of those had mafia lynched on day one.
That's 60% chance of a town lynch on day one, not 98%.
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BC, where are you?
Can any of the older vets tell me how BC plays in their experience?
In my experience, when he's town, he is motivated, and posts actively. For example, here's his filter from PTP2:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=245008&user=10200
XLVII:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690&user=10200
In both games, he's active, and contributing. In both games, you get the feeling he actually cares about what's happening, and wants to have an influence on the game.
Now contrast that to:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384&user=10200
One post, that's completely vacuous. Almost everything he says has either already been said, or is useless. This runs completely against my experience with townie BC, and is very similar to my experience with scum BC.
In any case, I want him to post more.
##Vote: BloodyC0bbler
What do people think?
@prplhz: I'd rate it as pretty bad. Kind've reminds me of what I did in Mini Mafia X. In any case, I want to see what GM has to say now, to see whether it's BS, or something that's actually contributory.
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Okay, Palmar's defense has been good, and his suspicion of GM seems genuine enough taken with his (short) interaction with him.
##Unvote: Palmar
Palmar are you still the mostest suspicious of GM after he came back and apologized and promised content later?
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On December 22 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:BC, where are you? Can any of the older vets tell me how BC plays in their experience? In my experience, when he's town, he is motivated, and posts actively. For example, here's his filter from PTP2: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=245008&user=10200XLVII: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690&user=10200In both games, he's active, and contributing. In both games, you get the feeling he actually cares about what's happening, and wants to have an influence on the game. Now contrast that to: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=295384&user=10200One post, that's completely vacuous. Almost everything he says has either already been said, or is useless. This runs completely against my experience with townie BC, and is very similar to my experience with scum BC. In any case, I want him to post more. ##Vote: BloodyC0bblerWhat do people think? @prplhz: I'd rate it as pretty bad. Kind've reminds me of what I did in Mini Mafia X. In any case, I want to see what GM has to say now, to see whether it's BS, or something that's actually contributory.
I completely agree and think he is a good lynch candidate for the day.
As a side note, I find it quite annoying how many people accepted the invite despite being too busy to actually play the game as they can't all be mafia. Just look at the length of the replacement queue; I would wager the vast majority of them would be willing to put more effort into the game than the people currently playing.
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On December 22 2011 03:44 Palmar wrote:
Just because I hate shit like that L
I've played 25 games I think now on this site, 10 of those had mafia lynched on day one.
That's 60% chance of a town lynch on day one, not 98%.
That's entirely not the case in my experience, nor is it the case on mafiascum. Mafiascum has roughly an 80% VT D1 lynch rate, a 10% Goon D1 lynch rate, and a 10%blue lynch rate.
Oddly enough, the prevalence of D1 goon lynches is often a planned gambit to protect the roleblocker and end the game that way. Given the 13/3 setup, given a random distribution of hits you'd assume that mafia would be killed approximately 20% of the time on day 1. That isn't the case. Mafia have easy outs on D1 which means barring any catastrophic play, their deaths are planned if they occur on D1.
I actually just looked at your post history ordered by threads and checked your last 7-8 games back until couples therapy. A single game had a mafia D1 lynched. Mafia used it as a gambit in a small format.
Which means either you're lying, or the 17-18 games before that had a 60% mafia D1 lynch rate despite your games fitting perfectly into the standard MS pattern of play. As far as D1 lynches go, I'm pretty down with going after a confirmed liar.
##Vote: Palmar
But seriously, I need to go do work. Later.
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EPT
