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On December 09 2011 02:45 Blazinghand wrote:I like the probabalistic way of looking at things. If your pool is "people who voted for BByte and aren't Blazinghand or Velinath" you know more about it than I do since you know your own alignment. However, entering into this argument you have walked into the territory of WIFOM and expected mafia scrutinized actions. That is where I think you make a mistak e Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote:On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. xtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. So this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player. There's a well-known mafia tactic known as "bussing" (from: to throw under the bus) in which two mafia players interact in an adversarial fashion if one of them is in danger, or just in general. For example, if BByte and EB with both mafia and the public opinion was moving to lynch BByte, EB might try to lead the charge, in order to prove himself innocent. However, for this to be believable they'd be aggressive towards each other beforehand so if either of them got in danger, they'd have a justification for bussing. "Oh, I suspected him all a long." Mafia members, assuming they're not enormously incompetent (see: JB) will do their best to not appear to be working/voting together. You noted that it's probably a 2/1 split since they want to appear like normal voters. It stands to reason that they'd disagree and argue on other things, including each other's alignments, to appear like normal voters. That being said, this takes nothing away from the probabilistic arguments. I just wouldn't go completely ruling out combinations like Grackaroni/ey215 or xsksc/xtfftc solely on the grounds that they got into an argument or disagreed on some issue. Also, I'd like to hear your reasoning on the "Velinath is town" read, ideally something besides "Well he agrees with Blazinghand a lot and BH is town". Agreeing with me doesn't make you town. It's possible you've made this case and I just herped and missed it with all the JB interaction that's happened recently, so just quote yourself or link me if that's the case. Is there a recorded final vote count for previous lynchings (day 1, day 2 etc?)
Your point about bussing is fair. Even though a possibility I think it is not very likely that xtfftc is in bed with xsksc. The option of ey215/Grackaroni I see as abit more likely but not much.
For the Velinath is town question, I am not sold on the fact that he is town. Neither am I sold on you. I see you both as leaning town. I see Velinath leaning town because of the way he have been actively going after lurkers and encouraging them to post. He have also haven't been afraid voicing his opinion on cases. On the negative side he have some posts that are slightly suspicious, like this one:
On December 07 2011 11:33 Velinath wrote:
First off, I was roleblocked last night.
Secondly, yes, I agree with this lynch. Scummy posts after Night 1 and the analyses posted? No question. Hassy can be saved for tomorrow.
##Vote: jaybrundage
The only reason for this post is for the rest of us to see him as a town. And seeing no one else claimng to have been roleblocked for the night it is either true or the scum team decided that thye wouldn't roleblock and then have Velinath claim it to give him creds. I only see this as confusing though, as it cannot be proven that he was roleblocked or not.
This beeing said I only have him slightly leaning town (if you guys are lynching jaybrundage and it goes wrong I will reasses my read on both Velinath and you).
But compared to the four others I see both of you as more green. xsksc I see as red (as previously stated), Grackorini I find somewhat suspicious (how quick he jumped in on xsksc's side in my case, how quickly and easily he followed in on the BByte case and how he now is in on the jaybrundage case after stating that ey215 have been in on all bandwagons), ey215 got a case on him with some good points (he have been in on every bandwagon so far) and xtfft is also somewhat suspicious (his overall play, his take on the EB lynch, him beeing abit sheepish towards you and me).
If I am to rate them from most scummy to least scummy I'd say:
xsksc (I'll call him that until Starshard actually posts)>Grackorini>ey215>xtfftc
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On December 09 2011 02:50 Blazinghand wrote:EBWOP: xsksc is now Starshard. Also, Tunkeg and Starshard(aka xsksc) have not voted in this election. You guys have 7 hours left. Your votes are very important, and however you vote you must justify. Granted, assuming nobody changes their votes, you can't stop the JB lynch. But I, and many others, will judge you based on the reasoning behind your vote. So if you do something dumb like say make a post like this: or this: Show nested quote +Herp derp voting for random player cause JB's gonna get lynched anyways #vote JB This kind of vote and justification is anti-town. So even though it's currently 7 JB, 1 Veli, 1 ey, cast your vote like whoever you vote is literally gonna get lynched, and justify your shit. Just a friendly reminder.
I will vote, don't worry. I want to see if any of the cases on one of the four I mentioned in my post before is going to get pushed. But I don't see me voting for jaybrundage, I am not sold on his case. Only reason I will be voting for him is if it looks like it will be a close race between two candidates, and I read the other candidate as more town.
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On December 09 2011 03:53 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. Nice to see that at least one person is interested in looking at EY* but I'm really disappointed that everyone else chose to ignore it. You don't have to agree with my case but we have to catch three mafia, not one. We have a lead on BKE if Jay flips mafia but we need to keep the conversation going. We don't know if Jay is going to flip town or mafia, only mafia does. If it turns out that he's just a dumb townie and considering that everyone tends to keep quiet during the night, we'll be left with pretty much nothing at a LYLO situation when it comes to scum hunting on Day 3 (unless we get lucky with the blues' night actions). Don't rely on the few active players to win the game. * I don't count Bluesomething because he looks like he's a newbie townie who strugling to form his own opinions. I expect a lot more of him tomorrow though; he should be able to post more analysis after being in the game for 48 hours. Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote:Probability lynchI think probability should be discussed more before going into a day 2 lynch. Some of you may call this WIFOM and just ignore it, and probably it is somewhat WIFOM, because it involves alot of speculating. The first thing I will speculate about is number of scum involved in the lynch on BByte. As I've mentioned before I belive the probability that 2 scums joined in on the lynch is the biggest: On December 07 2011 07:24 Tunkeg wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 06:30 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 05:57 Tunkeg wrote:On December 07 2011 04:15 Velinath wrote:On December 07 2011 04:09 Blazinghand wrote:On December 07 2011 04:06 xtfftc wrote:On December 07 2011 03:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Tonight the mafia may have already made their decision, but if we can get the same info without exposing ourselves more by delaying an analysis post another hour, is that really a bad idea? One thought would be that we need as much information as possible, but I'm not saying we shouldn't have the info, just that a minor delay is good. Five hours is what we're talking about here. Yes, because it's not just about your own analysis. It's about your analysis and everyone else reacting to (or ignoring) it. An isolated read isn't as good as being able to analyse people's responces. Hm. That's true, the extra 24 hours may make the difference. On the other hand, it's worth noting that at the beginning of the day, we do receive another piece of information: assuming that either (a) there is no doctor or (b) the doctor guesses wrong, one of us dies and is a confirmed townie or blue. A dead confirmed townie or blue, but a confirmed townie or blue no less. This information might be unhelpful but it could also play a big role in terms of analysis. Going off your assumption that someone will end up dying tonight, why should we hold off on posting analysis? The more conversation that we can have before night ends, the more that the dead townie will be able to contribute before they die. Given this, I feel that we stand to gain more by posting analysis earlier so that we can discuss it with all of the town voices. For the sake of conversation what are you thoughts on the BByte lynch yesterday. You were the first one voting for him, what do you think of the rest of us that ending up voting for him. Any votes you find more suspicious than others? Hi! As far as where I stand on the BByte lynch, despite the flip I think it was the best option we had. As a town I felt that we were somewhat divided between a couple of scumreads from different people, and, given that, it would be too easy for scum to swing a lynch one way or another in that situation. BByte, as a policy lynch, was a good call - lurking is and will always be anti-town play. I wish he would have gotten back earlier to defend himself and avert the lynch, but as it stands it was the right call. I must admit I didn't expect people to jump over and start voting BByte as easily as they did. A couple people even said that they had decent scumreads but "because nobody's going to vote for them, I'll just vote for BByte". This is a little bit of a matter for concern. I don't know whether it's just town complacency or actual suspicious behaviour, but either way people need to step up and push their reads. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2011 04:00 xsksc wrote:
Okay, I'll go with your judgement on this one. He seems like a decent lynch I guess, I'd prefer Tunkeg but that doesn't look like it's happening today.
##vote: BByte
Going to sleep now, will be back and active early tomorow morning. This one stood out to me - "it's not my best lynch choice, but it's not a bad one - and I can be more sure that my vote will help cement a lynch". On December 06 2011 05:13 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm willing to vote for BByte because he has not contributed to the game so far and his lynch target was stupid.
HassyBaby could still be a good lynch for today. Similar thing here. "This guy's a good lynch. Here's another option, but hey, I can actually get BByte lynched". On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote:
I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
Similar to the last couple. What it came down to for a lot of people was "who can I vote for that will be a safe bet to avoid last-minute surprise vote switches?". BByte was a safe lynch. Not the best, perhaps, but safe. His behaviour was scummy, but we could have done some more analysis on other people and maybe gotten a better candidate. EB's case on Hassybaby springs to mind as a pretty impressive case, I think if we had had the time to discuss that he would have maybe made a better lynch target. Now that we have another day ahead of us, we need to start looking less at policy lynching and more at scum reads. While there was a reasonable amount of scumhunting yesterday, we were unable to act on those reads. After filtering the voters on BByte, I can't really see anything suspicious. Every vote was based off of Lynch All Lurkers, meaning it's really hard to distinguish between which voters were motivated by policy and which were scum. Despite my voting first, I really feel like BH led the bandwagon here, and that should merit some scrutiny. As has been said in the last two pages, players thinking for themselves is a good thing. Forming your own reads will always be better than going off of someone else. That said, I find one thing suspicious. xkskc's post stood out to me as just jumping on a bandwagon and really helping to get it rolling. At the time, BH had just gotten things started. An informed mafia would be able to switch votes after seeing as visible a bandwagon as BH got rolling, and allay suspicion. "Yeah, I would prefer we lynch X, but that's not happening so I'll just go along with Y". Seems weird to me, but like anything in this game we could WIFOM it to death. Tomorrow, I think it might be a good move to focus on Hassybaby more. EB posted an interesting case yesterday, and I think I posted some stuff slightly before that. One of the big points there is his complete sheep vote on BKEXE based solely on my reasoning, and then disappearing from the thread. Something to look into. While I don't want to policy lynch him for lurking, his play so far does seem scummy. Thank you for answering. I agree with your thoughts here. It is pretty hard to say anything about which votes are more suspicious. But if I am allowed to speculate I would think at least 1 scum was in on the lynch of BByte, and more likely 2 scums to secure it. 0 and 3 would be very unlikely IMO. 0 is unlikely because I think scum wanted to secure the lynch of a townie. 3 unlikely because then they would put all their eggs in one basket (if all 3 jumped in early), and a change in lynchtarget would mean that at least 2 of them would have to switch to secure themselves (that would cause suspicion). If not all 3 jumped in early it would be no point in jumping in late for a third scum unless the vote weren't secured (for a secound scum, yeah, for a third no). So my view on the lynch yesterday is that there is likely to be two scums among the 7 who voted for BByte: Velinath, Blazinghand, xsksc, Grackorini, ey215, xtfftc and Tunkeg. And one among the rest. This is all speculations though, and probably not very usefull. As I belive BH and Velinath is the most green out of these (as of now) I will leave them out. And I will also leave myself out. This leads me to believe that there is 2 scum out of xsksc, gracken, ey215 and xtfftc. Seeing that ey215 and xtfftc is attacking eachother, and the way they are attacking eachother I don't see it as likely that they both are scum. Seeing that Grackorini is somewhat joining in on xtfftc's analyses: On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. xtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. So this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player. I like parts of this post - especially the xsksc+EY bit, although I would have to seriously consider one of them being town if Jay and BKE are both red - but focusing exclussively on voting patterns is dangerous. Townies vote for various reasons, so if you're going to analyse the vote, you have to look at all the factors surrounding the decision. Even if the whole mafia team was on the Bbyte lynch (which is very much possible, although I wouldn't count on it), there's some townies on it as well. You don't take into consideration the reasons why those you have townie reads of voted for him, yet you use the vote on its own as a factor when narrowing your mafia list. Why is it perfectly fine for someone you consider to be town to vote for Bbyte, yet someone you are suspicious of is worth lynching for doing the very same thing? Also, analysing the probabilities while excluding your own town reads and then pushing a lynch depending on the results doesn't help the rest of us.
I think we all need to be held responsible for the lynch on BByte. And I am not the biggest fan of the lynch (because I think the scum actually one up'ed us on this one). But compared to the other candidates for lynch I will say it was the best (xsksc was the best IMO, but this one died when you had to go to bed and wanted to make your vote count, and I did the same).
But the reason I think a lynch on one of those I find suspicious over the one I see as more townie is that I think the probability is bigger for succeeding in hitting scum. Others with other reads will probably put different people as suspicious.
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On December 09 2011 04:05 xtfftc wrote:
Okay, I have limited time, so tell me who you want to me to have a more in-depth look at tonight (or you can have shorter analyses of two/three players, etc.). I consider Grackaroni to be town and I'm less and less suspicious of Veli. My view on the two of you (BH and Tunkeg) hasn't changed - I think you're both town (remind me to go over trusting players you consider to be town even if they're not confirmed if you want to hear why I'm doing it). I'm willing to give Starshard a break even though I would have lynched xsksc, and I'm expecting him to step up and contribute more during Day 3, just like Bluelightz. If Jay flips town, I'd say that EY, xsksc and Adam are the mafia team. If Jay flips red, I think that his partners are BKE and EY/xsk.
If you think Grackoroni is green, you want to give Starshard a break, it limits it to ey215, and him you have allready written a case on. So out of the four I suggested it is really no one left  So I have no advice for you here. Maybe you should look into the Jay case to see if you are on board with the rest that have voted for him.
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On December 09 2011 04:21 xtfftc wrote:I've been looking at EY for a very long time now :D I can carry on with analysing his posts though; there's a lot of stuff to be looked at. Show nested quote +But the reason I think a lynch on one of those I find suspicious over the one I see as more townie is that I think the probability is bigger for succeeding in hitting scum. Yeah but this defeats the whole purpose of your probabilities analysis. If you agree that lynching them for doing something a lot of people did, then you can simply reduce your argument to "there's bound to be mafia on the Bbyte lynch, so I'm going to exclude the ones I consider to be townies and will take a closer look at the rest." I'm sure you can see why I have an issue with your logic: you value my vote on Bbyte the same as xsksc, even though I spend a lot of time fighting against it and xsk jumped on board in the blink of an eye. Of course, if I'm mafia I may have faked it in order to have an alibi for the Bbyte lynch - but in this case you should be analysing the reasoning I provided and not the actual vote.
Good, go for EY then 
As I wrote in a post further up I see you as the least scummy of the four mentioned xsksc as most. My reasoning behind go for one of you four is: I think there's two scums among the four mentioned, who voted when, and the reason for voting should be considered. So should also all their post combined.
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On December 09 2011 04:24 Blazinghand wrote:
By the way, Tunkeg, who are you going to vote for?
As of right now I will go for Starshard. But I am reading up on the EY case and his filter.
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On December 09 2011 04:42 Velinath wrote:
Hi!
I'm not sure if it's really eneded, but I'll justify my vote on jaybrundage now - as I've said before, the suspicions from his posting style after the Night 1 post gave me cause for concern, and coupled with the previous cases on him I felt that he was a better lynch target for today especially given his tendency to be vocal (unlike the largely lurking hassybaby, who was much less likely to misdirect the town). Following my vote, JB scumslipped quite hard against both myself and Blazinghand, and outright lied to try and distract everyone from the evidence against him, thus solidifying my opinion of him as scum.
I would also like to point to something that I believe Tunkeg pointed out recently, that jaybrundage and BKEXE (another of my current scum suspects) have been defending each other all game.
It wasn't me it was Adam:
On December 08 2011 13:37 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 12:01 Velinath wrote:
And of course RIGHT after I post that, BKEXE comes back with some decent reasoning and also steps up and votes. Guhhhhhhhhhhh I don't see what you see at all. I see BKEXE quote BH's book that he wrote on jay, ramble on about policy (a bit late in the piece for this really..), then dump his vote on jay after calling him an idiot. Oh and don't forget declaring how new he is... again. Your case on BKEXE was exactly where I was heading with the next day (assuming I survive the night.). It was well done and did a good job of highlighting exactly how BKEXE has been playing thus far, however I am going to highlight something you missed: BKEXE and jay have been defending each other this entire game: HereHereHereHereHereBKEXE's more recent posts aimed at jay are nothing more than distancing because we have shifted focus onto them. It is just a smokescreen, do not buy into this nonsense.
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I've read through EY's filter and I do sense some scumevibe. He have been in on every bandwagon. He came into BByte lynch as a fifth vote and on jay as fourth vote (reaassuring these votes come through without sticking his head out to much). He haven't really been sticking his head out to much for the entire game (except the BH arguement). And finally he is on my probability list. Therefor I will vote for ey215.
##Vote ey215
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Well done on the lynch guys. I have to say reading up on the post until the flip I was thinking jay have to be green, I was at least expecting him to roleclaim before dieing if he was scum. Day 3 I thought would be us discussing wheather BH and Velinath was getting to much influence on the saying in things, and my input would be for them to chill down and not going so strong for another lynch. Now that this lynch succeeded my opinion is that you should keep doing what you are doing, it is working great.
That beeing said, I am pretty sure at least one scum, maybe both remaining scum did bus jay. Still, all should look into both me and xtfftc for not voting jaybrundage.
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I am all for a lynch on BroodKingEXE. His post aren't making mucch sense, and this have been the case from the beginning. At first I wanted to cut him some slack, because of newbiefactor. And I thought a lynch on him would be to easy, as in easy for scum to get a bandwagon on. After a passive first day, he came back on the secound day (the end of Day 1 ingame) posting more, as if he had been told by someone to step up his game. He have as you guys have said been defending jay, before he bussed him and took the opposite approach (this after seeing that jay was going to get lynched). And then comes the part that puts it over the top. He sees xtfftc's and my vote on ey215 and jumps on it, as a last resort to save himself. I belive BKE is scum, and he will have my vote.
My vote on ey215 seems to be wrong, I may have put to much into my probability lynch case, and I really wanted a lynch on one of those four. Having some small scumreads on ey215 I went with it. As of now my entire probability lynch case seems pretty dead, I think BKE is scum, and jay flipped scum, therefor there can't be 2 scum among those 4.
##Vote BroodKingExe
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I belive it to be a good chance for BKE to flip red. If he do flip red who do you guys see as the third scum?
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+ Show Spoiler +On December 11 2011 06:35 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote:Probability lynchI think probability should be discussed more before going into a day 2 lynch. Some of you may call this WIFOM and just ignore it, and probably it is somewhat WIFOM, because it involves alot of speculating. we would be right in calling it wifom because it is, speculating isn't helpful is is only marginally better than RNGing votes by pointing out that it may be wifom and not useful he has provided an excuse in case he is called out on using poor logic.If you are trying to help town then why would you make a post full of logic that you think can and possibly should be ignored. A townie cannot help town if people ignore them they also cannot be lynched. Being ignored does not help people scumhuntThe first thing I will speculate about is number of scum involved in the lynch on BByte. As I've mentioned before I belive the probability that 2 scums joined in on the lynch is the biggest: so what? we still don't know,there are either 0 scum 1 scum or 2 scum and we have no way of knowing with any certainty which is the correct number so this assumption very unreliableOn December 07 2011 07:24 Tunkeg wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 06:30 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 05:57 Tunkeg wrote:On December 07 2011 04:15 Velinath wrote:On December 07 2011 04:09 Blazinghand wrote:On December 07 2011 04:06 xtfftc wrote:On December 07 2011 03:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Tonight the mafia may have already made their decision, but if we can get the same info without exposing ourselves more by delaying an analysis post another hour, is that really a bad idea? One thought would be that we need as much information as possible, but I'm not saying we shouldn't have the info, just that a minor delay is good. Five hours is what we're talking about here. Yes, because it's not just about your own analysis. It's about your analysis and everyone else reacting to (or ignoring) it. An isolated read isn't as good as being able to analyse people's responces. Hm. That's true, the extra 24 hours may make the difference. On the other hand, it's worth noting that at the beginning of the day, we do receive another piece of information: assuming that either (a) there is no doctor or (b) the doctor guesses wrong, one of us dies and is a confirmed townie or blue. A dead confirmed townie or blue, but a confirmed townie or blue no less. This information might be unhelpful but it could also play a big role in terms of analysis. Going off your assumption that someone will end up dying tonight, why should we hold off on posting analysis? The more conversation that we can have before night ends, the more that the dead townie will be able to contribute before they die. Given this, I feel that we stand to gain more by posting analysis earlier so that we can discuss it with all of the town voices. For the sake of conversation what are you thoughts on the BByte lynch yesterday. You were the first one voting for him, what do you think of the rest of us that ending up voting for him. Any votes you find more suspicious than others? Hi! As far as where I stand on the BByte lynch, despite the flip I think it was the best option we had. As a town I felt that we were somewhat divided between a couple of scumreads from different people, and, given that, it would be too easy for scum to swing a lynch one way or another in that situation. BByte, as a policy lynch, was a good call - lurking is and will always be anti-town play. I wish he would have gotten back earlier to defend himself and avert the lynch, but as it stands it was the right call. I must admit I didn't expect people to jump over and start voting BByte as easily as they did. A couple people even said that they had decent scumreads but "because nobody's going to vote for them, I'll just vote for BByte". This is a little bit of a matter for concern. I don't know whether it's just town complacency or actual suspicious behaviour, but either way people need to step up and push their reads. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2011 04:00 xsksc wrote:
Okay, I'll go with your judgement on this one. He seems like a decent lynch I guess, I'd prefer Tunkeg but that doesn't look like it's happening today.
##vote: BByte
Going to sleep now, will be back and active early tomorow morning. This one stood out to me - "it's not my best lynch choice, but it's not a bad one - and I can be more sure that my vote will help cement a lynch". On December 06 2011 05:13 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm willing to vote for BByte because he has not contributed to the game so far and his lynch target was stupid.
HassyBaby could still be a good lynch for today. Similar thing here. "This guy's a good lynch. Here's another option, but hey, I can actually get BByte lynched". On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote:
I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
Similar to the last couple. What it came down to for a lot of people was "who can I vote for that will be a safe bet to avoid last-minute surprise vote switches?". BByte was a safe lynch. Not the best, perhaps, but safe. His behaviour was scummy, but we could have done some more analysis on other people and maybe gotten a better candidate. EB's case on Hassybaby springs to mind as a pretty impressive case, I think if we had had the time to discuss that he would have maybe made a better lynch target. Now that we have another day ahead of us, we need to start looking less at policy lynching and more at scum reads. While there was a reasonable amount of scumhunting yesterday, we were unable to act on those reads. After filtering the voters on BByte, I can't really see anything suspicious. Every vote was based off of Lynch All Lurkers, meaning it's really hard to distinguish between which voters were motivated by policy and which were scum. Despite my voting first, I really feel like BH led the bandwagon here, and that should merit some scrutiny. As has been said in the last two pages, players thinking for themselves is a good thing. Forming your own reads will always be better than going off of someone else. That said, I find one thing suspicious. xkskc's post stood out to me as just jumping on a bandwagon and really helping to get it rolling. At the time, BH had just gotten things started. An informed mafia would be able to switch votes after seeing as visible a bandwagon as BH got rolling, and allay suspicion. "Yeah, I would prefer we lynch X, but that's not happening so I'll just go along with Y". Seems weird to me, but like anything in this game we could WIFOM it to death. Tomorrow, I think it might be a good move to focus on Hassybaby more. EB posted an interesting case yesterday, and I think I posted some stuff slightly before that. One of the big points there is his complete sheep vote on BKEXE based solely on my reasoning, and then disappearing from the thread. Something to look into. While I don't want to policy lynch him for lurking, his play so far does seem scummy. Thank you for answering. I agree with your thoughts here. It is pretty hard to say anything about which votes are more suspicious. But if I am allowed to speculate I would think at least 1 scum was in on the lynch of BByte, and more likely 2 scums to secure it. 0 and 3 would be very unlikely IMO. 0 is unlikely because I think scum wanted to secure the lynch of a townie. 3 unlikely because then they would put all their eggs in one basket (if all 3 jumped in early), and a change in lynchtarget would mean that at least 2 of them would have to switch to secure themselves (that would cause suspicion). If not all 3 jumped in early it would be no point in jumping in late for a third scum unless the vote weren't secured (for a secound scum, yeah, for a third no). So my view on the lynch yesterday is that there is likely to be two scums among the 7 who voted for BByte: Velinath, Blazinghand, xsksc, Grackorini, ey215, xtfftc and Tunkeg. And one among the rest. This is all speculations though, and probably not very usefull. if you allowed to speculate: well yes you are but it is not helpful! you make the assumption that scum were trying to secure the lynch on Bbyte but it is also possible that the lynch was entirely down to town and you then decide that in your opinion 0 scum would be unlikely. This is complete guessworkand it is not helpful to speculate about mafia's actions in such a fashion.It is pure wifom and such not be taken seriouslyAs I belive BH and Velinath is the most green out of these (as of now) I will leave them out. And I will also leave myself out. This leads me to believe that there is 2 scum out of xsksc, gracken, ey215 and xtfftc. Seeing that ey215 and xtfftc is attacking eachother, and the way they are attacking eachother I don't see it as likely that they both are scum. Seeing that Grackorini is somewhat joining in on xtfftc's analyses: based on nothing but the unreliable thought that 2 scum voted for bbyte you then decide that because you think it is likely (which it isnt) you then omit your two best town reads (which have not been comprehensively justified and who could still be scum) and omit yourself (which is not consistant if you are looking at probabilities but is understandable) and decide that we should lynch from the 4 others who lynched bbyte. because you think that 2/3 scum would vote for the lynched townie on day1 you are assuming that bbytes alignment and flip makes the player that voted for him more likely to be scum but it just doesn't. On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. he assumes that the above statement means that they both can't be scum, this s somewhere between bad logic and wifomxtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. for almost the same bad reason he assumes that xtfftc and xsksc(me) cannot both be scumSo this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc the unreasonable ruling out of two scum pairings doesn't even have any relevance to his point.I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player. this last part is amusing because the chance of scum is either 0% 25% or 50% and i dont like those chances especially when they are based upon unreasonable and not useful speculation. You recommendation is more likely to lynch a townie and that would benefit mafia. I do not see how what you are recommending benefits town in anyway it would only serve to further a mafia agenda.the points i have added have been italicised (for clarity) and underlined (for my ego) + Show Spoiler +i really think that the shoddy reasoning in this yourcould be an attempt at trying to hurt town/ help mafia. i think that tunkeg could be a good lynch candidate unless he can explain himself. if you have a town read on him then why do you think that he would behave this way? i strongly recommend you review your stance
In my view I threath this game as a game where one should make educated guesses. Others allignment is not known unless you are scum (then you know other scum) or blue (depending on which powers you got). This is the key information you can base your actions on. For a regular townie there is no other information else then what players are writing and votepatterns and nightkills. When I made the probability lynch post, I made it based on what I thought was most probable at the time, with the given information I had.
Given how easy the BByte lynch went through my view was that it was probable that at least 2 scum was in on it, either to get the bandwagon rolling, or just to confirm it. I then proceeded to narrow it down by excluding those I at the time considered least scummy of the bunch. The pairing of the four remaining players I did based on my view of their previous actions, excluding those pairs I considered the least probable.
How you are calculating those percentages I don't know, because I find it hard to put a percentage on any of these pairings. I could only say they were more or less probable then a random lynch (IMO). The only correct percentage by the time is that a randdom lynch would give a 3/11=27,3 % hit rate. If you were to put percentages of hitting on the three pairings you would have to put alot of percentage guesses on for instance how likely is it that 2 out of 3 scums where in on the BByte lynch. Or how likely is it that neither BH and Velinath is scum and so forth, making it impossible to get a percentage out of it that says anything. So my statement on the probability lynch was simply that lynching one of the four mentioned would IMO give a higher probability to lynch a scum then any of the other reads I had.
If you have ever played poker for instance, this way of thinking is pretty normal. You make educated guesses based on previous actions from the player, based on your own hand at the time, based on the cards on the board and so forth. Early in the game it is harder to put players on spesific hands, but the further into the game the more reads you have on them. But still you put them on hands based on what you think is logical, based on the information at the time. This was fairly early in the game, and I have allready stated that I think I was wrong (not that my logic was wrong) seeing that jay flipped scum, and I think BKE is scum. But I called it as I saw it, and I made my play based on it.
Then it is up to the rest of you to evaluate wheather you think my logic was good or bad, or even if my play was anti-town as you are claiming. My thoughts on your write up on the subject though seems abit desperate, like you are fabricating a case on me based on nothing.
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Edit: Last line should be: My thoughts on your write up though, is that it seems abit desperate, like you are fabricating a case on me based on nothing.
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On December 11 2011 07:47 layabout wrote:
your guess was not educated
it was stupid
In your opinion...
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Let me ask you layabout, how is your take on the lynch on BByte then. Do you believe that all options, 0, 1, 2 or 3 scums voting for him was equally probable? Your reads on the players who did lynch, did you think every player were equally scummy/townie? If not, explain to me why my guesses are unreasonable?
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You could state that you think it was worthless for the rest of the players, that I can accept as an opinion from you. But that it was unreasonable, nope.
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On December 11 2011 08:15 layabout wrote:
im not posting a my read on every single player list and i will explain why in postgame when there will be no danger of me criticising the entire thread and derailing discussion
my take the bbyte lynch: it was not a great lynch because the reasons given for voting for him were weak and his behaviour did not make him seem likely to be scum.
but it was a day1 lynch and he was lurking and i do not think it is reasonable to expect to lynch mafia on day1, he was lurking and there weren't strong cases for alternate candidates. so i accept that you all lynched him
do i believe that 0,1,2,3, scum voting for him was equally probable? no. do i believe a specific circumstance say 1 scum is more likely? no
because we do not know who the mafia are and we do not know how they think or what their plan for the game is. the only things we know are that they are in the thread they win when they are equal or greater in number to town.
the rest of our information comes from the thread from what we read in the thread.
any thoughts or suspicions about what the mafia will do are of very limited usefullness
because speculation about how mafia will leads to "circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that their behavior would be subject to scrutiny."(from mafiawiki)
this is why your guess is unreasonable
mafia know that people may look at voting patterns and so they can try to act unlike what you expect or like what you expect because they expect you to expect them to act unlike how you would expect them to.
trying to follow through such reasoning is unhelpful as it leads nowhere and as such reasoning dependent on the expected behaviour of the mafia has no value
+ all of the stuff about poker is useless fluff
+ calling my post desperate do not address the point i made instead you are asking me to explain myself but you have not justified your actions which were anti-town and supported by poor assumptions
First. The poker thing was a comparason to a game where you apply the same logic as I did in my probability lynch case. Just as in poker you have imperfect information and you have to base your actions on educated guesses. These guesses takes many factors into consideration, including things like opponents trying to hide their patterns. But fine, enough poker talk.
I think that looking for patterns should be a part of the scumhunt, as certain patterns will be there no matter how hard scum tries to avoid it. How much weight you should put on it is a different matter (you obv need to put it together with other reads)
I called your post desperate because I think that is what it is. If you are scum, and BKE is scum you need something to divert attention off him and onto others. I think trying to pin me as scum based on my probability lynch post is pretty weak, and therefor desperate.
In closing you say I haven't justified my actions. I thought that was what I did in my post replying to you, and in the probability lynch post itself. I can recap it: I called it as I saw it. I actually believe that it is something that should be taken into consideration. And I thought I was onto something.
It was based on assumptions, poor is your words. But the entire game is based on assumptions.
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On December 11 2011 08:21 layabout wrote:
also removing 3 players from the list is quite a major step to take and you really didn't justify it
if they were your town reads they should be included but you could argue that because you think that their behaviour is town-like and that they would be the worst lynch choices on the list you should not exempt them becuase that defeatd the point of lynching players who voted for a town because for some (bad) reason you think 2 of the total players voting for that town should be mafia because that is what you expect mafia to do.
by eliminating players from the total you eliminate potential mafia and further reduce your chance of hitting scum.
(which was 50% in the optimal situation)
Well you just aren't getting the point of my post then. I believed that lynch went as it did because scum players jumped on the bandwagon, I would say that is a fair assumption.
Then I wanted to narrow it down, because just like claiming that everyone could be scum useless, so is claiming that all the players voting for BByte could be scum. I therefor eliminate the ones I belive are most town, BH and Velinath, and the one I know is town myself.
This will be my final answer to you on this tonight, I am going to bed.
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On December 11 2011 09:17 layabout wrote:franky i think BXE is the best lynch target at the current moment in time but we still have scum to find and we need to scumhunt (analysis coming tomorrow) so i decided to see why, you made a post in which you began by saying people would ignore you and then went on to make worthless speculation and unjustified assumptions i feel that i have highlighted why this is this case very clearly i cannot believe that you have not adressed any of my arguements but have instead tried to attack my possible motivation and you have mostly just provided fluff Show nested quote +It was based on assumptions, poor is your words. But the entire game is based on assumptions. justify them then!don't just say i made assumptions we need to in this game that is an entirely worthless statement as was your poker "analogy" you just make general statement about making reads and how reads are more valuable the more time passes. This has nothing to do with what you had written if you make an argument based on reasoning then you better have solid reasoning because otherwise your post holds no weight it is not helpful to town (unless it reveals that you are scum) because your entire argument relies on reason that does not withstand scrutiny i think we are past the point of this being a useful exchange because you clearly don't understand or are ignoring the point that i have made explain yourself and then try to help town by analysing behaviour
I said I made assumptions in my probability lynch post. I have justified my post multiple times allready, but you fail to understand. You are just twisting everything I say and putting it into a context that it wasn't. I will just ignore you, unless you start bringing something new to the table.
For the rest of you, if you have input in this case I will gladly answer.
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lol @ layabout. You are quite a piece of work, you come out guns blazing, with purely one dimensional cases against me and then on xtfftc. Me you want to lynch based on my probability lynch, xtfftc you want to lynch based on his reasoning behind why he didn't vote jay.
Sure both me and xtfftc should be looked into for beeing on the wrong side of both the lynches that have taken place. But really your stuff is just weak.
The most funny though is that after you first started the case on xtfftc:
+ Show Spoiler +On December 11 2011 02:21 layabout wrote:i need to take some time to try to understand Broodking 's post in the meantime i think that xtfftc: has made some glaring contradictions and that he owes and explanation Grackaroni highlighted this in an earlier post and i think you (xtfftc) need to expalin: Show nested quote +I've posted more on Jay, look at Day 1 but it's mostly one off remarks (such as pointing out how Jay justified not voting for a lurker by saying that we shouldn't lynch a lurker because a lurker isn't around to defend himself) and I don't see how the last quote was me suggesting that he is probably town. It was me pointing out the scumminess of EY's reasoning, and at that moment it was to be expected that mafia would jump on the Jay bandwagon.
At the moment I think that Jay is more likely to be scum because if he's not, we have EY, xsk, and Adam left, and I consider Adam to be the worst lynch out of the players I am suspicious of (Adam, Jay, EY, xsk, BKE) you explicity state that you think Jay is the most likely to be scum and grack makes this point Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 10:16 Grackaroni wrote:
Show nested quote +
Here he even admits that Jay is more likely to be scum but his vote still remains on Ey215. . .
I stated my reasons for keeping my vote on EY. Your reasoning is pure WIFOM in this case. Jay was obviously going to be lynched hours before I posted the bit you quoted, so what could a townie do in this situation? Vote for Jay and be accused of sheeping after BH and bandwagonning (remember Tunkeg and his analysis of the Bbyte lynch?) Or vote for someone else and be accused of not voting for the obvious mafia. you call his "reasoning" (i see a simple statement of fact) "pure WIFOM" well where is the pure wifom in this? Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 06:45 xtfftc wrote:On December 08 2011 06:06 ey215 wrote:On December 08 2011 04:56 xtfftc wrote:On December 08 2011 04:15 ey215 wrote:
I'm not 100% sold that he's scum, but I'm sold his behavior has been anti-town.
##vote: jaybrundage ... Town does not vote to punish bad play. Town votes to lynch mafia. Right, and right now the best case for scum I've seen is the one on jay. I don't think it's currently possible to be 100% sold on anyone at the moment town or scum. I've read the filters, and have nothing unique to add to the discussion so why clog the thread up even further? Am I supposed to be like, "FUCK YEAH WE'RE KILLING SCUM!" Besides BH, I don't think anyone is 100% sure on jay, but at the moment it's the best we've got. Hopefully it solidifies later in the day, or someone else catches something You lynch your best read. You don't start looking for excuses for when the player you're voting for flips town. Yes, because I did such a great job laying under the radar before. Let's see, pissing match with the most active/aggressive player in the thread. Check.
Getting myself warned for inactivity in big blue letters to point it out to everyone. Check.
Great job I'm doing staying under the radar. You didn't want to get into the "pissing match" with BH, you were forced to by his aggressiveness. And using lurking as a proof that you haven't been staying under the radar is a pretty solid point if you're building a case against yourself. You were out of the picture when every good mafia wants to be: during the last ~12 hours before the deadline, so you did a great job. On December 08 2011 06:10 ey215 wrote:
I'd also like Starshard, xftttc, and Bluelightz to respond to by the accusations that EB made. I know it sucks for the replacements but there needs to be some response to it. He seemed pretty damn convinced he had the game won and then got offed by the mafia overnight. I answered to him after he mentioned me and I don't see how his death changes anything. What is there to be said about EB? His play was arrogant and trollish. He was obviously a veteran smurfing, who thought it would be fun to frustrate the townies (refusing to vote just when he was asked to the most active player in the game just because he felt like irritating us) and then giving us a great demonstration of how a town player has to prove his innocence when attacked. He posted a great case that lacked obvious flaws - and then he was happy to go inactive again. He came back to announce that he's found the whole mafia team - but didn't bother providing any analysis on two of the players he accused. And he also made sure to notify us that the Bbyte lynch was pushed easily... Before the game started (and also in the Looking For Coaches thread) some veterans suggested that there should be some experienced players in this game to help teach the newbies how to play properly. Instead we get a cocky smurf. There was no way to make a good guess about his intentions, which is the reason why I'm not all over Hassy at the moment. EB was good enough to make us do anything he wanted to as long as he was interested in putting a serious effort in the game, and I have no reason to believe that his intentions were pro-town, even after his flip. Ask veterans such as Sandroba and Palmar and they will tell you that the first thing a townie should do is to establish his/her innocence. The first thing EB did was to frustrate town and lose us half a day. So what good would it do to town to focus on him again instead of doing our own analysis? All you're achieving with this is disruping the discussion. you have stated that you should only vote for mafia and that you should lynch your best read and yet in the above quote you do not do that here earlier you didn't Show nested quote +
On December 06 2011 06:20 xtfftc wrote:
Pretty much all I have on Adam is based on two of his posts that push pro-mafia agenda. Now that I think about it, I have a much stronger case on ey215, even though I decided to leave him for day 2. I don't have enough to convince Adam on my own and it seems that most of the others are happy to lurk or to vote for lynching Bbyte.
Here's what I wrote on Adam earlier in case you're lazy and can't be bothered to check it out:
+ Show Spoiler +
I'll check the thread again before going to bed.
you have a strong case on a player but you would rather not post it and you would rather vote for someone other than your best read? seriously? so you vote for BByte Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote:
I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
why? "its better than a last minute suprise" you just jump on a bandwagonShow nested quote +On December 09 2011 05:24 xtfftc wrote:
Yes, albeit a short one that doesn't cover some bits. I feel uneasy about the way no one objects on lynching Jay. It feels like Day 1 all over again, which makes me wonder whether Jay might actually be town - even though mafia are probably just bussing him at this point. So my vote stays on EY to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team and not just one member of it. another contradiction it also doesn't make sense that "to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team" could be a reason for a vote i also think your case against eye is weak i shall soon explain why.
You proceed to post this on BKE:
On December 11 2011 06:43 layabout wrote:
i would like to post analysis before i vote and i still have plenty of time to do so but as it stands i don't feel like i can justify a vote for anybody over broodkingexe
BKEXE if you are town please help!! because lynching a town today would really hurt our chances
and people have so confidently voted for you they have barely been posting
there has been very little discussion so far and so a mislynch would make today a huge waste of time that could have been spent scumhunting
And then you continue your case on xtfftc without adding anything to it, and then vote for him. Basically doing the same thing as he did on the jay case. Are you fucking kidding me??? I think you are trying your best to derail the BKE lynch. Your moves are truly desperate.
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EPT
