TL Mafia XLVII - Page 175

On November 30 2011 08:01 tree.hugger wrote:

I feel like every time someone has said, "I know I am town" they've not been town. For posterity: Supersoft for that and for the phenominal uselessness of this post:

A whole game day after the fact? What's the point of this except to confuse people and muddy the water? SS is pretty mafia, imo.

And Steveling for this:


But for today, since neither of these guys are up for a vote, I think we have a good choice between Palmar, BC, WBG, and Risen. Earlier, I voted for WBG and Risen, because they both made posts that made it really likely that both were mafia. But since I posted a few pages ago before going out and now, both have made a good deal of sense. So I'm a little worried about changing from them, but I'm willing to give them their way today, and if they're wrong, we can properly lynch them tomorrow. Both have voted for BC, and both Supersoft and Steveling have voted for Palmar. This seems pretty straight forward to me, one side is mafia, and the other is town.

So I'll switch my votes for today from WBG and Risen to BC and Supersoft. But I wonder if WBG, Risen, and Palmar would address their groupthink all of a sudden, and whether they would admit now whether they would consent to be lynched tomorrow if they are wrong about BC. I wonder if they would make such a pledge? Let's see.

On November 30 2011 07:40 layabout wrote:
my best scum read:
Steveling: Town with frequent Scum-like behaviour that or Scum that slipped on a banana peel and bashed his head? hard. You decide!

highlights that he is new. finds a debate suspicious because...he isn't sure about double lynching, he may have actual thoughts about it but there are important him not being unsure is the thing that the thread needs to know.
"They could be operating together"... guys remember when you consider possibilities the least likely one is the only one that should be noted! steveling has the right idea. Highlights that he is new again because if you don't offer your opinion and someone disagrees with it then then need to be aware of how long you have been playing mafia.
"layabout you are being unfair he said he "feels like we are pushing too fast"" so how is that helpful "well....".

saying I'm a newbie when you defend yourself is nearly equivalent to saying you can't have a legimate reason to attack me im not scum with a agenda but im simply a bad new player making mistakes QQ... when refering to oneself and calling oneself a town or indeed an "obv town" the act itself is wiithout value. NO PLAYER HAS ANY REASON TO EXPLICITY STATE THAT THEY ARE TOWN the exception being in situations in which you are claiming your specific role i pointed this out earlier but the short of it is that nobody claim mafia-->everybody is assumed to claim town--> if everyone will claim town then instead nobody should claim town a very few do (cept maybe but kenpachi but he is .... kenpachi).

You then say that all your posts were completely neutral. Your post as an "obv towny" should be pro-town and you should (generally) not hold back. i think neutral posting and having a red role may be correlated

you then state that cyber cheese is trying to protect Palmer from a second day lynch which is something that you CANNOT possibly KNOW, and then that the way he is doing something that you cannot possibly know he is doing is through framing you.This is a wild and claim without basis.
Too tired to look for clues* but not too tired to type that you are too tired; and omit evidence and a chain of logic instead?
*he doesn't promise analysis but clue-finding - an activity that is highly manipulable and that by itself has very little value and that can favor mafia when not supported by evidence, which gicen the evidence he is consistently supplying makes the clues he finds + Show Spoiler +

Nope this is fine. Based on the sample of all of the mafia games i have played i can agree that no town has ever had reason to suddenly change their vote. A fantastic conclusion. Well spotted. though i do wonder what makes his change of target "sudden".

he then concludes that behavioural analysis was not for him* and that the best way to scumhunt is to follow 1 round of clues and has a debate about whether a police baton=wooden bat he cherrypicks a google image search and finds an image. He then ignores captain dictionary AKA xtfftc and decides that he has a jolly good case and
votes for him and palmar

*disclaimer ficticious conclusion made to mock him may or may not be more valid that the actual derping going on inside his head


infers that ym=town mean that palmer=scum. or he is just asking questions and not helping.


there you have it. "to be honest that is the most clear cut scum tell possible." no explanation whatsoever. but i will concede it is highly convincing. (what is the scum tell!??)

good point.

excuse

some bad formatting this refer to the italics inside the quote. Steveling complains about having to read the thread. In an 80 person game of mafia! He pushes for a modkill on Annul a player he has not addressed until this point!(so he is what a null read with a higher chance of being town than mafia unless steveling's others reads identify a greater proportion of town than mafia) but maybe steveling has a reason to suspect he is mafia.

he doesn't. apparently if he is town and he gets modkilled we can then filter players that targeted him! so you dont care if he is mafia.you also down't care that 2 lynches will happen today and that mafia have at least 8 kp and that all players to be mod-killed thus-far have proved to be town There will be lots more deaths and lots more information. You want to lynch because if we hit a townie then we will gain information to analyse. Specifically we can look at the filters of players who openly called the townie suspicious. You realise that calling him scummy and him getting mod-killed and flipping town wouldn't help us at all, right? And you haven't realised that we can filter those players anyway. but thanks for directing me to your filter, i didn't have a strong scum read until now.it is scummy to want to kill players for information you kill players because they are mafia* there are almost no worse reasons to lynch than "to gain information".he is also experienced and possibly an asset to town
*or serejai
best reason i could find on palmar

correct me if another post sum it up better but this is the most concrete thing i could find about palmer being scum. directing blue roles has been discussed to death and 1 inference about one possible result and the intention to get that result is not evidence that a player is scum

i totally agree with this, he actually acknowledges the existence of uncertainty.

huge unsubstantiated generalisation about my filter. does not back up. criticising my posting at great length at 2 points in the game. heavily implies that jackal being town makes me scum for a "dispute over palmar" i would not decribe it as such even if it were it would not have a bearing on alignment. Criticising a poor argument is apparently standing up for WBG though he provides no source. He then implies that WBG is scum for having a "history" of defending palmar. Steveling is calling 3 players scum and has made very little effort to say why? i may be infering to much here but the inferences i make here are the ones i felt made the most sense in context. I shouldn't have to make so many inferences when a townie is presenting a case for players being mafia.


calls zephhirdd and cheese scumbuddies for a reason that i just cannot comprehend.the point about not backing up the things they say is baffling. would scum play this thoughtlessly?

to conclude there are large number of statements and accusations that are't supported. There is very little use of logic in any of his posts. He has done certain things that do not make sense from the perspective of someone who wants town to win. He also makes frequent excuses and acts in a way that suggest he thinks that clues are they best way of contributing. He votes for palmer and xtfftc and i cannot fathom why he would do so as town. He is pushing weak/ non cases and providing little no to explanation.
He is my strongest mafia read. he could be a very unhelpful and/or bad town. he is the best scum i have
##Vote steveling

On November 30 2011 08:05 wherebugsgo wrote:



You're scum, I've thought so for a while.

You switch your votes to the leading bandwagon whenever it's most convenient for you.

You don't say anything of substance in your posts, and you're only around at certain critical moments to make it look as if you're contributing something.

Your vote combinations don't make any sense, and are an indication that you aren't reading the thread very clearly.

You use really bad logic to think that scum only vote together and only town vote together. This is unsubstantiated until someone flips and voting order is never that strict. Otherwise, this game wouldn't be about behavior analysis, we could catch all 16 scum based on vote analysis alone.

You accuse me of using groupthink with Risen and Palmar, yet you are the epitome of groupthink. You've followed the bandwagon everywhere it's gone. You haven't made an original case on one person yet.

You're scum.

On November 30 2011 08:05 wherebugsgo wrote:



You're scum, I've thought so for a while.

You switch your votes to the leading bandwagon whenever it's most convenient for you.

You don't say anything of substance in your posts, and you're only around at certain critical moments to make it look as if you're contributing something.

Your vote combinations don't make any sense, and are an indication that you aren't reading the thread very clearly.

You use really bad logic to think that scum only vote together and only town vote together. This is unsubstantiated until someone flips and voting order is never that strict. Otherwise, this game wouldn't be about behavior analysis, we could catch all 16 scum based on vote analysis alone.

You accuse me of using groupthink with Risen and Palmar, yet you are the epitome of groupthink. You've followed the bandwagon everywhere it's gone. You haven't made an original case on one person yet.

You're scum.

On November 30 2011 08:16 tree.hugger wrote:

You're silly.

I want to make my vote count. If the town is not willing to vote for Risen or yourself (who both made huge posting errors) than I will switch my vote to make sure it influences the vote. There's no point in voting on principle, especially when half the town seems inactive. You want me to stand on my old votes if they're going to be useless, and not take a position when there is a ton riding on this vote? That's nonsense, and doesn't help anyone.

When I post and when I don't has nothing to do with anything. I've been quite clear about my inactivity at the beginning of the game, and I don't feel I need to explain my activity now. I can't be expected to stay at my computer 24/7, I have to eat, meet friends, do work, ect. Using someone's schedule against them was the epitome of a shoddy argument back when I played more, and it still probably is.

I finished reading the thread, deleted Ace's rogue post, and then thought for a long time about what I was going to do with my votes. After reading your analysis, it struck me that it was quite well done, and I think a compelling case can be made for BC. He has not been as active as one would expect, and has backed down from confrontations that could make him the center of attention. I think there is a better case for him than for Palmar, and have never supported the wagon on Palmar. I'm still suspicious of you though, as well as Risen for your slip ups earlier. The only reason you've gotten away with those is because they happened hours ago. Well, I'll give you a one day grace period, and if you're wrong I will push for your lynch tomorrow without hesitation or switching. I won't be fooled twice.

On November 30 2011 07:45 wherebugsgo wrote:


this is good analysis.

The problem is that the chance of getting steveling lynched today is almost 0. I agree with you on most of your points, particularly that he is fond of using unsubstantiated accusations and generalizations to accuse others of being scum.

Other than steveling, are there players who currently have a chance at getting lynched that you would like to see dead?

What are your thoughts on BC, prplhz, deconduo, and Hier?

On November 30 2011 08:16 tree.hugger wrote:

You're silly.

I want to make my vote count. If the town is not willing to vote for Risen or yourself (who both made huge posting errors) than I will switch my vote to make sure it influences the vote. There's no point in voting on principle, especially when half the town seems inactive. You want me to stand on my old votes if they're going to be useless, and not take a position when there is a ton riding on this vote? That's nonsense, and doesn't help anyone.

When I post and when I don't has nothing to do with anything. I've been quite clear about my inactivity at the beginning of the game, and I don't feel I need to explain my activity now. I can't be expected to stay at my computer 24/7, I have to eat, meet friends, do work, ect. Using someone's schedule against them was the epitome of a shoddy argument back when I played more, and it still probably is.

I finished reading the thread, deleted Ace's rogue post, and then thought for a long time about what I was going to do with my votes. After reading your analysis, it struck me that it was quite well done, and I think a compelling case can be made for BC. He has not been as active as one would expect, and has backed down from confrontations that could make him the center of attention. I think there is a better case for him than for Palmar, and have never supported the wagon on Palmar. I'm still suspicious of you though, as well as Risen for your slip ups earlier. The only reason you've gotten away with those is because they happened hours ago. Well, I'll give you a one day grace period, and if you're wrong I will push for your lynch tomorrow without hesitation or switching. I won't be fooled twice.

On November 30 2011 08:10 wherebugsgo wrote:
super we could be wrong. They both could be town.

On November 30 2011 07:26 annul wrote:
by the way...

there should be 144 total votes cast (69 * 2 + 6 for mayor). there are currently 97. we are likely to have ~20 modkills if people dont get their shit in in the next 4.5 hours.

On November 30 2011 08:20 wherebugsgo wrote:


Fair enough, this post is actually reasonable. However, you actually make another logical fallacy at the end.

If I'm wrong about BC or prpl, that just makes me wrong. It doesn't make me scum nor does it make me more likely to be scum.

Townies are wrong all the time, because no one's reads are perfect. People also get lynched all the time for all sorts of reasons.

Risen for now is unlikely to be scum IMO. The manner in which he posts are far more important than "scumslips." In addition, I never scumslipped. Sinani pointed out what he thought was a scumslip and, quite frankly, what he pointed out was more of a townslip than anything else.