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On November 24 2011 11:22 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2011 17:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I think the most important thing you have to ask yourself now in deciding if you think this strategy is good is why do these 5 seem to have no problem voting so much on lynch candidates? In a majority lynch setting its obvious, you vote because you want them to die, and unless they seriously think each one of those 3 were really scum why else would they vote? Seems silly, the obvious answer is that they want them to die because the more dead townies there are the better it helps their win condition.
In a majority lynch game they HAVE to reach the number of votes to get a kill, meaning in this set up a vote list is even more powerful of an analytical tool then anything else we have. I have used votelists to catch scum in the past before and it is a very very good indicator. If you look at Arkham Asylum mafia Lucidity played a really really tight game from posting, I couldn't 100% put him as scum. He flew under really well. But as someone who made semi good intelligent posts he ALWAYS ended up on the wrong side of every lynch. When he was the only person to fuck up so bad the answer was simple, he was scum trying to save his own. I don't really buy that this is how you plan on winning the game. I can understand it as a place to start in a multi-lynch format, but there needs to be a step two to this. That said, I can't really say why it isn't a good plan. ##Vote: Lanaia
##Vote: GreYMisT
##Vote: Forumite
##Vote: Nisani201
##Vote: ZephirddIt might be a misread but I REALLY don't see cyber_cheese being scum. I've been reading his day 1 posts, and no one gave me such a town vibe as he did. I think the step two I mentioned is actually analyzing the players here.
Here's my problem with it. There are 5 living scum. You have 7 votes down. RoL has convinced you to place votes on townies. There are hazards in store for a town that uses degenerate strategies, and we don't know what they are. Therefore, it would be scum agenda to push a plan that essentially degenerates the game away from analysis of individuals.
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On November 24 2011 12:50 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 11:22 bumatlarge wrote:On November 23 2011 17:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I think the most important thing you have to ask yourself now in deciding if you think this strategy is good is why do these 5 seem to have no problem voting so much on lynch candidates? In a majority lynch setting its obvious, you vote because you want them to die, and unless they seriously think each one of those 3 were really scum why else would they vote? Seems silly, the obvious answer is that they want them to die because the more dead townies there are the better it helps their win condition.
In a majority lynch game they HAVE to reach the number of votes to get a kill, meaning in this set up a vote list is even more powerful of an analytical tool then anything else we have. I have used votelists to catch scum in the past before and it is a very very good indicator. If you look at Arkham Asylum mafia Lucidity played a really really tight game from posting, I couldn't 100% put him as scum. He flew under really well. But as someone who made semi good intelligent posts he ALWAYS ended up on the wrong side of every lynch. When he was the only person to fuck up so bad the answer was simple, he was scum trying to save his own. I don't really buy that this is how you plan on winning the game. I can understand it as a place to start in a multi-lynch format, but there needs to be a step two to this. That said, I can't really say why it isn't a good plan. ##Vote: Lanaia
##Vote: GreYMisT
##Vote: Forumite
##Vote: Nisani201
##Vote: ZephirddIt might be a misread but I REALLY don't see cyber_cheese being scum. I've been reading his day 1 posts, and no one gave me such a town vibe as he did. I think the step two I mentioned is actually analyzing the players here. Here's my problem with it. There are 5 living scum. You have 7 votes down. RoL has convinced you to place votes on townies. There are hazards in store for a town that uses degenerate strategies, and we don't know what they are. Therefore, it would be scum agenda to push a plan that essentially degenerates the game away from analysis of individuals.
Lynching townies is not bad if it in no way inhibits us from winnign the game. The only reason lynching townies is bad is in normal formats, that is one less town KP being used on scum. The only thing that could really hurt us lynching those players is if we are dead wrong and only 0-1 of them are scum, or Zona's warning kills townies, which I think it does not. I think it does not.
I initially thought to myself that perhaps the amount of people we lynch gives mafia that much KP, but three people died yesterday, and unless it's cumulative (which I don't see how that could be fair, unless we actually had about 5 doctors,) so I've ruled it out. I believe it could do anything short of actually killing people.
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Lynching that people seems like a terrible idea to me. If you've going to advocate lynching that many people, you really should make yourself more active in this thread.
Now, I'm sorry, but I'm not 100% sure how active I'll be tomorrow as it will be hyper stressful for me.
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I think it's terrible only because that is a massive amount of people.
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@lanaia
Well, we aren't doing so great now. Everyone wants to see some progress, if we can at least find one or two mafia we can try to gather the rest based on that. Slowly getting picked off while lynching blues isn't working, so we need to try something different. I don't advocate lynching that many people, but we should consider lynching more than 2 today as an option. I think that one or two of the biggest lurkers that voted on one of the day one bandwagons and prplhz should go along with the scummiest outspoken players, I will need to look over suspects for that tomorrow (from the subset of players below).
@RoL
Why are you voting for all 7 if you narrowed the list to 4? I think it's likely that 1, maybe 2 mafia are in the list, but I really don't think the mafia needed to assist the town much to lynch day one. Myself, I was over eager to vote for bad town play rather than scummy play, and I think other players did that. I realized that by day 2, but not everyone caught on and we lynched prplhz, but with more help from mafia that time I believe. It's much more likely that you will find mafia on one vote and not the other day 1, and on prplhz.
@bumatlarge
You can't forget the possibility that palmar might have been protected by another unclaimed medic, and I am not lying. Not something that I imagine happened, but people can explain not voting for either of us that way.
##Vote Palmar
Happy TG to those that celebrate it.
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DCLXVI can you explain what Palmar has done that advances a scum agenda?
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Why people are voting for Palmar is beyond me. Especially you bumatlarge.
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I just want to voice my disagreement with any plans of lynching more than at most 2 people.
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On November 24 2011 18:52 Palmar wrote:
I just want to voice my disagreement with any plans of lynching more than at most 2 people.
Do you have 2 people in mind ?
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I have two, Nisani and bumatlarge.
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or replace bum with Zephirrd/DCLXVI, I don't care.
Also I don't understand how people are saying he's confirmed blue. No one is confirmed anything except hyshes.
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I will probably eat a lot of turkey today, I was hoping to do a write-up of everyone in town, at least a few sentences.
I will hand out my suggestions in a timely manner, I do have to re-read a few people to settle down. I am alarmed by your inclination of believing every blue claim there is out there Tyrran. Let's take for example Cyber-cheese and DCLXVI, they were put in a position where not claiming a blue role would mean they're lying and should be lynched.
So, neither of their claims should be taken for granted. I am not saying that we should outright lynch one or two of them, but for example Cyber-cheese's claim of tracking you sounds a little absurd, doesn't it? I mean, why would someone hunting for mafia on day 1 track a player that's pretty much accepted as a very likely town?
It's just food for thought.
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On November 24 2011 13:02 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 12:50 Cyber_Cheese wrote:On November 24 2011 11:22 bumatlarge wrote:On November 23 2011 17:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I think the most important thing you have to ask yourself now in deciding if you think this strategy is good is why do these 5 seem to have no problem voting so much on lynch candidates? In a majority lynch setting its obvious, you vote because you want them to die, and unless they seriously think each one of those 3 were really scum why else would they vote? Seems silly, the obvious answer is that they want them to die because the more dead townies there are the better it helps their win condition.
In a majority lynch game they HAVE to reach the number of votes to get a kill, meaning in this set up a vote list is even more powerful of an analytical tool then anything else we have. I have used votelists to catch scum in the past before and it is a very very good indicator. If you look at Arkham Asylum mafia Lucidity played a really really tight game from posting, I couldn't 100% put him as scum. He flew under really well. But as someone who made semi good intelligent posts he ALWAYS ended up on the wrong side of every lynch. When he was the only person to fuck up so bad the answer was simple, he was scum trying to save his own. I don't really buy that this is how you plan on winning the game. I can understand it as a place to start in a multi-lynch format, but there needs to be a step two to this. That said, I can't really say why it isn't a good plan. ##Vote: Lanaia
##Vote: GreYMisT
##Vote: Forumite
##Vote: Nisani201
##Vote: ZephirddIt might be a misread but I REALLY don't see cyber_cheese being scum. I've been reading his day 1 posts, and no one gave me such a town vibe as he did. I think the step two I mentioned is actually analyzing the players here. Here's my problem with it. There are 5 living scum. You have 7 votes down. RoL has convinced you to place votes on townies. There are hazards in store for a town that uses degenerate strategies, and we don't know what they are. Therefore, it would be scum agenda to push a plan that essentially degenerates the game away from analysis of individuals. Lynching townies is not bad if it in no way inhibits us from winnign the game. The only reason lynching townies is bad is in normal formats, that is one less town KP being used on scum. The only thing that could really hurt us lynching those players is if we are dead wrong and only 0-1 of them are scum, or Zona's warning kills townies, which I think it does not. I think it does not. I initially thought to myself that perhaps the amount of people we lynch gives mafia that much KP, but three people died yesterday, and unless it's cumulative (which I don't see how that could be fair, unless we actually had about 5 doctors,) so I've ruled it out. I believe it could do anything short of actually killing people.
I don´t like what you are saying, bum. We really can´t mess up another day, because we need Townies around to win. A few more dead isn´t just less time until Scum win, it also makes it that much harder to lynch more Scum, because as their fraction of the total votes grow, they will have a much easier time controlling the lynch. And with your proposed lynches Scum WILL grow stronger. Of your proposed 7 lynches, I see one Town, 4 who are most likely Town, and 2 who are moderately scummy. Even if you do convince Town to lynch all 7, and nail as much as 2 scum with those votes, which is unlikely, 3 nightkills later we are at 6 Town and 3 Scum, and I don´t see us winning that situation. It might even be over immediately, if lynching 7 people somehow give Scum some more KP.
With all this, you are still saying DCL or Palmar is lying, while we in fact don´t know anything about the setup, it´s all speculation. Mafia KP could be dependant on total votes rather than people lynched, it could be changing over time, some game have it set by surviving scum, but it could just as well be set by some other factor, perhaps following a schedule of KP for each day, or Scum KP is 2 but gets an extra KP for each 3 lynches that are performed. Even the Medics could work in strange ways, perhaps they can´t protect anyone voting for them, or they have limited protects, or only protect every other night. You don´t consider that 3 full doctors could work in a scenario with 2 KP, because it can still be beaten by scum if they double up the kills, the doctors are probably spreading the protects, and they can´t know who scum are targeting. If a scenario with 3 doctors could be balanced, if there can be hidden mechanics with mafia KP, and even Medic protects, and you have no idea HOW it all works, how can you say for sure that either DCL or Palmar must lie? They could just as well both be telling the truth, we really don´t know, and speculation doesn´t get us very far in this case.
I don´t like how you are reasoning and what you are proposing. I would consider if your tactic weren´t so likely to give the game to Scum right now, but that´s what I think would happen. Today we need to kill a few, and we need to hit at least one Scum, that´s how we win. We don´t hit many in order to kill a few Scum, because then we won´t survive tomorrow even if we do find one of them.
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I'm willing to lynch nisani today. If he is not scum, atleast 3 out of wherebugsgo/palmar/tyrran/RebirthOfLeGenD should be.
Vote: Nisani201
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woops formatted wrong
##Vote: Nisani201
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On November 24 2011 21:32 hyshes wrote:
I'm willing to lynch nisani today. If he is not scum, atleast 3 out of wherebugsgo/palmar/tyrran/RebirthOfLeGenD should be.
Vote: Nisani201
That logic doesn't hold up.
Shape up, you're in the prestigious position of being confirmed town, don't squander the opportunity through idiocy.
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On November 24 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 21:32 hyshes wrote:
I'm willing to lynch nisani today. If he is not scum, atleast 3 out of wherebugsgo/palmar/tyrran/RebirthOfLeGenD should be.
Vote: Nisani201 That logic doesn't hold up. Shape up, you're in the prestigious position of being confirmed town, don't squander the opportunity through idiocy.
You guys votes are too close to eachother for this not being true. But i'm actually guessing you guys are town and nisani is scum.
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On November 24 2011 19:15 Palmar wrote:
I will hand out my suggestions in a timely manner, I do have to re-read a few people to settle down. I am alarmed by your inclination of believing every blue claim there is out there Tyrran. Let's take for example Cyber-cheese and DCLXVI, they were put in a position where not claiming a blue role would mean they're lying and should be lynched.
So, neither of their claims should be taken for granted. I am not saying that we should outright lynch one or two of them, but for example Cyber-cheese's claim of tracking you sounds a little absurd, doesn't it? I mean, why would someone hunting for mafia on day 1 track a player that's pretty much accepted as a very likely town?
I do not take any claims for granted, be it Watcher, Medic , Tracker, DT, roleblocker or whatever. Some of the claims makes sense to me (especially DCLXVI medic claim), others are more suspicious ( as you mentioned, Cyber_cheeze is behavior during Night 1 was strange).
Also,
@Hysches : I believe for now that palmar is town. This may change in the future, but his action and filter until now have a very strong town feel.
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I believe Palmar's claim but that doesn't mean that DCL is 100% scum, there's a small chance we could have some kind of 3 medic setup.
I'm going to agree that Nisani looks like the best lynch today, better than DCL anyway. He's been constantly going after the people who are generally accepted as town and his posts are shady.
##Vote: Nisani201
I'm also prettty suspicious of Lanaia. She says she never claimed blue, but when she blatantly anti-voted day 1 and her name appeared next to it, it's the same outcome. I'm really surprised she hasn't died yet.
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On November 24 2011 23:53 xsksc wrote:
I'm also prettty suspicious of Lanaia. She says she never claimed blue, but when she blatantly anti-voted day 1 and her name appeared next to it, it's the same outcome. I'm really surprised she hasn't died yet.
I never OUTRIGHT claimed it. That was what I meant.
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EPT
