EPTSteamship Liquidia (TL Mafia 46) - Page 98
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hyshes
Belgium428 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On November 24 2011 07:11 wherebugsgo wrote: I disagree 100% with everything Nisani has said this game, what do you say about that? RoL is not scum. Try coming up with your own ideas for once. The fact that you're actually entertaining Nisani's ideas, of all people, is honestly blowing my mind right now. What I don´t understand is why you are 100% sure that he´s scum. Unless you have proof, there should be at least the possibility that he´s Town, and that some of his opinions should be considered before being discarded. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
That's reason enough to discount his opinions. I'm 95% sure he's scum and nothing he's said so far has made sense. You don't need to know someone is scum to ignore them. Their thoughts don't matter if they're consistently wrong. Right now, for example, yours aren't mattering for much. I really doubt RoL is scum. Really really really doubt it. If he is actually scum then I'll probably need to get my head checked. | ||
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
1) Get some idea of how many mafia you expect to find, and include that alongside the list if you want to kill the whole list. There is no point singling out four people if you only expect one to be scum, because that's the same average as the rest of the game. That could have been any arbitrary group of four people. On November 24 2011 00:42 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: At the end of the day you can't ignore what mafia aganda is. Their goal is to kill as many of us as possible and while avoiding a suspect list is good if it means not killing people its a choice they probably won't make. To be honest I don't like the weird way you are trying to use this list. Why would you vote Chaoser/Bum when they aren't high in the +3 area. Seems strange. I can almost guarantee you among those 5 I mentioned there are a couple of scum. I would happily kill them all because its a good trade. Anyone else want to contribute? Zephirdd, Nisani, DCLXVI, Greymist, Cyber_cheese, Lanaia, Forumite These 7, kill them all. I welcome analysis on them if anyone wants to do it. That is the list of all people who voted 3+ times on large wagons of people later confirmed to be town. How many scum do you expect to find? Because if you mean two when you say a couple as it implies, you didn't really narrow it down much at all. 2) Don't manipulate the evidence to the people you suspect. If you are going to use lists as a basis to vote on people, you can't change them to suit the people you want to vote for. On November 23 2011 18:26 wherebugsgo wrote: + Show Spoiler [Post content] + yo RoL did you vote nisani/bum? I'm all for lynching the people who bandwagoned like mad but we have to discriminate between who is more likely to be scum and who is less likely to be. Sure, it'd be a great way to get rid of the hard decision by just killing them all now, but I think we should lynch the ones who are scummiest first and then with those flips we can start pushing into the rest of the group tomorrow. In fact, most of the people who were on all 3 lynches are probably idiot townies. They wouldn't want that much attention on themselves. I think we need to more carefully consider those who were only on two lynches. Basically, I say we start with nisani/bum/chaoser. I know chaoser wanted to vote prpl, so he would've actually been on two lynch bandwagons. Scum like to split their votes between two candidates when both are town. I know this because I did it myself as scum. My team would split, one half pushing one townie for lynch and the other pushing the other. No matter who won, a townie would die. In this game, if both win, two townies die. So let's look at the lynch and see who, if anyone, had at least 3 votes and was on either kenpachi or sinani day 1 but not the other on the same day, and then was also on prpl day 2: + Show Spoiler [Rest of post] + Day 1: Kenpachi(14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese sinani206(14): chaoser (would have been on prpl day 2), GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes Day 2: prplhz (12): Forumite, Drazerk, GreYMisT, Nisani201, hyshes, bumatlarge, risk.nuke, Kibibit, Sabin010, Lanaia, xsksc, Coagulation (would have been chaoser here as vote 13) From this vote pattern alone some of the 3 voters (such as Cyber_Cheese and GreYMisT) are less likely to be scum (though we can't rule it out) This is on the assumption that scum would split their vote to avoid as much suspicion as possible. This means we should focus on: bumatlarge, nisani, chaoser/mrzentor, forumite, lanaia. All names I think are likely to bleed red. If I missed something, let me know. Those requirements seem very arbitrary. Can you explain why you chose them? | ||
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Cyber_Cheese
Australia3615 Posts
How exactly do you figure Chaoser would have voted Prplhz? He barely even mentions him in the filter linked here. FoS Wherebugsgo | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
I'm going to be traveling and whatnot all over the place on thanksgiving...so after this next post and maybe another small post or two at some point tonight, I'm not really going to be able to post again till Friday morning CST. (I mean, I will have enough access to make posts during the day tomorrow, but I will not have the time necessary to do enough reading to make them useful in any way.) So yeah, just giving fair notice that I am probably only going to make one post tomorrow to avoid being replaced, and it probably won't be of much value. But on Friday I'll be back to regular posting. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Lanaia
Canada1142 Posts
On November 24 2011 06:48 xsksc wrote: Lanaia, I'm kinda curious about you. You claimed blue very early on, why are you still alive? I never claimed. I showed an aspect. And I have no idea. Anti-voting doesn't seem threatening to scum, I suppose. Maybe they're going to paint me as scum later on. I cannot say why I am alive when I have no idea what scum's motivation is. On November 24 2011 06:50 Palmar wrote: Lanaia, you are not allowed to be mad at people for doing stupid stuff unless you yourself don't do stupid stuff. I'm not allowed to be mad at someone who votes everyone alive in the game after not posting for ages? I haven't done anything stupid since day 1. At least I'm trying to play the game. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 24 2011 08:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Wait a minute. How exactly do you figure Chaoser would have voted Prplhz? He barely even mentions him in the filter linked here. FoS Wherebugsgo he posted it after he was replaced and then edited it out. Someone quoted it. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 24 2011 08:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote: + Show Spoiler [Rest of post] + Day 1: Kenpachi(14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese sinani206(14): chaoser (would have been on prpl day 2), GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes Day 2: prplhz (12): Forumite, Drazerk, GreYMisT, Nisani201, hyshes, bumatlarge, risk.nuke, Kibibit, Sabin010, Lanaia, xsksc, Coagulation (would have been chaoser here as vote 13) From this vote pattern alone some of the 3 voters (such as Cyber_Cheese and GreYMisT) are less likely to be scum (though we can't rule it out) This is on the assumption that scum would split their vote to avoid as much suspicion as possible. This means we should focus on: bumatlarge, nisani, chaoser/mrzentor, forumite, lanaia. All names I think are likely to bleed red. If I missed something, let me know. Those requirements seem very arbitrary. Can you explain why you chose them?[/QUOTE] It's not arbitrary, I explained it already. I know it from experience myself when I am scum; the best way to avoid suspicion is to avoid being on the same bandwagon as your scumbuddies on the same day. Thus, you can reasonably expect some of the scum on each of the wagons, but not all of them on one. That would draw too much suspicion. So, from that, I tend to rule out most of the people who were on both Kenpachi and Sinani. They're very unlikely to be scum IMO (and behavioral tells give me more confidence in this as well, it's not just the vote pattern.) In addition, all of the people I pointed out as having this vote pattern have pushed scum agenda far more than town agenda. They are a detriment to town and need to die; if they are townies, they will realize this and (hopefully) shape up. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On November 24 2011 08:43 Cyber_Cheese wrote: Those requirements seem very arbitrary. Can you explain why you chose them? It's not arbitrary, I explained it already. I know it from experience myself when I am scum; the best way to avoid suspicion is to avoid being on the same bandwagon as your scumbuddies on the same day. Thus, you can reasonably expect some of the scum on each of the wagons, but not all of them on one. That would draw too much suspicion. So, from that, I tend to rule out most of the people who were on both Kenpachi and Sinani. They're very unlikely to be scum IMO (and behavioral tells give me more confidence in this as well, it's not just the vote pattern.) In addition, all of the people I pointed out as having this vote pattern have pushed scum agenda far more than town agenda. They are a detriment to town and need to die; if they are townies, they will realize this and (hopefully) shape up. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
Cyber_Cheese - Could go either way on him, but any lynch movement on him would need some really solid reasoning to gain my support. DCLXVI - I'm willing to believe he is town for now, but I'm not entirely done observing his actions. Forumite - His voting alone is suspect, and with his actions in the thread, I'm leaning more and more scum on him every day. Possible lynch candidate. GreYMisT - His voting isn't great, but I've had town feelings on him since early. Not ready to consider lynch on him just yet though. RebirthOfLeGenD - Probably town, not particularly useful though so far. My opinion on him is incomplete as of right now. Kibibit - Lurking, could support him as lurker lynch candidate, but I doubt he is scum, so I'd rather hold off for now. Lanaia - Bad voting but I think town. Lemonwalrus - I'm town. Nisani201 - Probably scum. Willing to allow more time before voting for him, but currently plan to at end of day. Doubt anything more than a claim with something to back it up would stop me at this point. Palmar - I've followed him most closely of all other players since the beginning of the game, and although at the beginning I thought he might be scum I am now certain he is not. His actions and votes have been in line with his reasoning and his reasoning has been some of the best in the thread. Sabin010 - Lurker that feels scummy. Tyrran - Very confident he is town at this point in time. Zephirdd - Voting record bad, but not confident enough about it to lynch him. bumatlarge - Feels scummy, but every argument I form for it falls apart to my own counterarguments. Idk. MrZentor - So damn confused about this one. hyshes - I find it so ridiculously unlikely that he is anything but town after Drazerk's flip that I'm willing to take it as an unquestionable truth at this point in time. wherebugsgo - Parrots palmar a bit much, but I don't feel he is scummy, at least not right now. xsksc - Post more? No good read on him atm. Only put colors on ones that I was particularly confident of. Done for now. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
That's something scum keep saying. (aka Nisani) Indeed if you notice, Palmar and I have opposing views on RoL. | ||
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Lemonwalrus
United States5465 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
hyshes, just put him down as 100% Town, no need to explain. The only way he isn´t is if Drazerk lied about them being masonbuddies, but it´s so unlikely that there is no point in discussing it. Right now I think a lot of scum hide among the players below. They are chosen arbitrarily, by me. These are players who either lurk or subtly disrupt the game. Many of them have been reluctant about the main bandwagons. The big problem with this theory is that most of them are new players, and it´s normal for new players to have a problem with activity levels, then again it´s not hard to fake being a new player with . Probablility also suggests that scum are split between new and old players, but perhaps the new scum lurk and the old scum are active without giving themselves away. I´m expecting to find 3 scum among them, but I´m probably optimistic. Coagulation bumatlarge MrZentor Kibibit Sabin010 Zephirdd xsksc Thoughts on this? Feel like removing any of them from the list? | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On November 24 2011 10:39 bumatlarge wrote: If you are town and do not vote DCL or palmar, you are bad at mafia. End of story. Still contributing, I see. DCL? I can understand hating on Palmar, but I´m not following DCL. Most have him written down as a Blue. | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On November 24 2011 10:48 Forumite wrote: Still contributing, I see. DCL? I can understand hating on Palmar, but I´m not following DCL. Most have him written down as a Blue. If he's blue palmar is scum. If you think palmar is town and really was shot, DCL is scum. I've gone over this. | ||
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On November 24 2011 11:03 bumatlarge wrote: If he's blue palmar is scum. If you think palmar is town and really was shot, DCL is scum. I've gone over this. This is a blue-heavy game, with scum potentially having 3 nightkills, why can´t there be 3 medics? | ||
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
On November 23 2011 17:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: I think the most important thing you have to ask yourself now in deciding if you think this strategy is good is why do these 5 seem to have no problem voting so much on lynch candidates? In a majority lynch setting its obvious, you vote because you want them to die, and unless they seriously think each one of those 3 were really scum why else would they vote? Seems silly, the obvious answer is that they want them to die because the more dead townies there are the better it helps their win condition. In a majority lynch game they HAVE to reach the number of votes to get a kill, meaning in this set up a vote list is even more powerful of an analytical tool then anything else we have. I have used votelists to catch scum in the past before and it is a very very good indicator. If you look at Arkham Asylum mafia Lucidity played a really really tight game from posting, I couldn't 100% put him as scum. He flew under really well. But as someone who made semi good intelligent posts he ALWAYS ended up on the wrong side of every lynch. When he was the only person to fuck up so bad the answer was simple, he was scum trying to save his own. I don't really buy that this is how you plan on winning the game. I can understand it as a place to start in a multi-lynch format, but there needs to be a step two to this. That said, I can't really say why it isn't a good plan. ##Vote: Lanaia ##Vote: GreYMisT ##Vote: Forumite ##Vote: Nisani201 ##Vote: Zephirdd It might be a misread but I REALLY don't see cyber_cheese being scum. I've been reading his day 1 posts, and no one gave me such a town vibe as he did. I think the step two I mentioned is actually analyzing the players here. | ||
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