Steamship Liquidia (TL Mafia 46) - Page 8

Post a Reply

Prev 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 Next All

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 22 2011 12:00 GMT

#1779

On November 22 2011 20:38 Zephirdd wrote:

Show nested quote +

The target is told that he was hit and saved, that's exaclty what Palmar ~~said~~ quoted.

Yeah, I noticed, that´s why I said it was in the OP.

Zephirdd, are you going to be more active now, or go back to 10 hours between posts?

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 22 2011 23:25 GMT

#1806

I´m not up for mindlessly following Palmar, but I´m willing to give it a shot, if his plan isn´t crazy then I´ll probably go along with it. Also I´m curious about the fistpound.

##Fistpound

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 09:35 GMT

#1841

On November 22 2011 07:19 Tyrran wrote:
Also, while I'm at it :

##Vote: Coagulation
##Vote: Sabin010
##Vote: xsksc

You lurkers unburrow just to lynch an innocent WITHOUT any justification at all, and completely disregarding the post where I understand that prp is a potential blue ( yes i called him vigi which he denied but still) and Palmar huge post in his defence. You are either scum or really crappy town, i dont want you in the game either way.

I agree with Tyrran here, these three were on the mislynch, but their stance look more suspicious than most.

On November 21 2011 16:36 xsksc wrote:
Just woke up and skimmed the thread, got to run for work now.
Just realised I hadn't voted yet, I'll post explanations for these later, hopefully during lunch.

##Vote: Prphlz
##Vote: Nisani201

You didn´t post explanation later, you came back to fix the vote that didn´t stick though.

On November 22 2011 04:22 Coagulation wrote:
##vote: prplhz

I wouldnt mind lynching ROL either after his "LOL LETS LYNCH KENPACHI"
a real credit to town.

Why did you vote prplhz? Any special reason?

On November 22 2011 02:28 Sabin010 wrote:
Ok i've read through the thread and this is what I have.

##Vote: prplhz

Risk.Nuke is completely pro-town and I'm keeping this vote on you until you've removed your vote.

And what part of the thread made you consider prplhz for the lynch?

If there are scum on the prplhz lynch, then they are either hiding among the three below, or the least the lurkers are playing in a way that is making it that much easier for scum to bandwagon. Off course you can be on a mislynch, but when you vote you take a stand, don´t sneak in another vote, hammering without getting much attention for it.

##Vote: Coagulation
##Vote: Sabin010
##Vote: xsksc

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 09:42 GMT

#1844

On November 23 2011 17:31 Tyrran wrote:
Guys stop voting for now. Blue role analysis incoming. DCLXVI is likely blue. Dont lynch him

I´ll listen.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 09:46 GMT

#1846

On November 23 2011 18:37 Tyrran wrote:
@Palmar
Now that 2 medics have been revealed, and none protected you, your hit claim looks more scummy. Mafia is confirmed to have 2KP ( as i dont think any vigilante would have been stupid enough to shoot drazerk/risk.nuke), but it would be rather easy for mafia to only use one, and for you to claim hit. A third medic is rather unlikely dont you think ?

Palmar could also be a one-shot veteran, which means he was still shot, but survived despite there not being any medics involved.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 09:54 GMT

#1850

On November 23 2011 18:47 Palmar wrote:

Show nested quote +

I have already explained that there is no mechanic in my role that allows me to survive night hits.

Okay, then either DCL is not a medic, we have a third medic, or you are lying.

I have a theory on the 3 deaths. The mechanic that is there to prevent people from claiming could have something to do with it, either claiming gives scum more nightkills, or they have a role that can target a player, and kills them if they have a role, but has no effect on vanilla townies.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 12:05 GMT

#1869

On November 23 2011 19:47 wherebugsgo wrote:
also ##vote Forumite

for being repeatedly thick/repeatedly pushing stupid lynches.

Stop it. Really. It's starting to get annoying. If you're actually town, take your head out of your ass and look at what you're doing.

I can´t argue with this, I know I´m playing very bad now but I´m having a hard time figuring things out. I´ve seen so many connections and bad plays, putting my scumreads at 6+. Even if I feel more sure that the Palmar+WBG+Cyber trio is town now than while I was pushing prplhz, I´m still left with a lot of players I can´t decide on, like about 9, and I can´t work with that high a number.

I´ll try to reread the thread, see if something comes up.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 13:15 GMT

#1875

Kenpachi (14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus, Hiroruby/RebirthOfLeGenD, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese

sinani206 (14): chaoser, GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes

prplhz (12): Forumite, Drazerk, GreYMisT, Nisani201, hyshes, bumatlarge, risk.nuke, Kibibit, ~~Cyber_Cheese~~, Sabin010, Lanaia, xsksc, Coagulation

I thought that if I posted this, then perhaps it would make more sense...

Anyway rereading the thread puts Zephirdd at the top of my scumlist. He looks odd because the first 4 posts after game start, 3 if not counting the one before he had checked his PM, look very nervous, he doesn´t say anything except random FoS without basis, then disappear for 12 hours and is suddenly much more organized, probably after talking to his scumbuddies. He´s the earliest non-Confirmed Townie on Kenpachi, before the first 2 votes make it a valid wagon, and the last non-Confirmed Townie on sinani206. His reasoning for the vote was weak, and he disappeared immediately afterwards. Yes, he went to MLG and Town can do that too, but the fact remains that his last post was jumping on the end of a bandwagon without providing much reasoning.

Of all my scumreads, he´s one I´ve had a long time and quite consistently, it´s been weak, but I can´t remember ever seeing one of his posts and getting a strong Townread, even for that one post.

##Vote: Zephirdd

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 14:09 GMT

#1879

On November 23 2011 22:56 Palmar wrote:
you're lying, you didn't re-read the thread.

I reread the first day, that was enough for now.

What do you think about Zeph?

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 16:46 GMT

#1902

On November 24 2011 01:22 hyshes wrote:
@wbg:
explain this.
+ Show Spoiler +

On November 23 2011 19:05 wherebugsgo wrote:

Show nested quote +

I would believe those are all townies.

+ Show Spoiler +

Whitin 1 post you change your thought on forumite? Without a post inbetween from forumite? Or any post concerning the matter? Everybody knows you don't post without reading the thread, so this makes no sence.

He posted his thread before reading my post where I voted 3 of the lurkers who voted prplhz yesterday. It´s allready been answered earlier, you probably missed the post.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 20:53 GMT

#1922

Coag, srsly?

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 21:58 GMT

#1939

On November 24 2011 06:34 Nisani201 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I would not recommend voting Coagulation. I am almost certain he is trying to draw votes to himself for whatever reason.

I agree, although I have no idea why he would do that. It could be because of a role, because he thinks this will give him a lead while scumhunting, or because he wants to disrupt the game. I´m not sure if it needs to be disrupted though, it´s chaotic enough as it is.

WBG, Nisani brought up a metagame reason to lynch RoL. What do you say? Has RoL's play been up to his standards?

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 23 2011 22:32 GMT

#1942

On November 24 2011 07:11 wherebugsgo wrote:
I disagree 100% with everything Nisani has said this game, what do you say about that?

RoL is not scum. Try coming up with your own ideas for once. The fact that you're actually entertaining Nisani's ideas, of all people, is honestly blowing my mind right now.

What I don´t understand is why you are 100% sure that he´s scum. Unless you have proof, there should be at least the possibility that he´s Town, and that some of his opinions should be considered before being discarded.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 24 2011 01:36 GMT

#1955

Lemon, why post a list of all your reads, if 2/3 of your reads are nulltells, leaning Town, or unsure? That list doesn´t do anything except pointing out the obvious and points a weak FoS on me, but you could have done that in one line.

hyshes, just put him down as 100% Town, no need to explain. The only way he isn´t is if Drazerk lied about them being masonbuddies, but it´s so unlikely that there is no point in discussing it.

Right now I think a lot of scum hide among the players below. They are chosen arbitrarily, by me. These are players who either lurk or subtly disrupt the game. Many of them have been reluctant about the main bandwagons. The big problem with this theory is that most of them are new players, and it´s normal for new players to have a problem with activity levels, then again it´s not hard to fake being a new player with . Probablility also suggests that scum are split between new and old players, but perhaps the new scum lurk and the old scum are active without giving themselves away. I´m expecting to find 3 scum among them, but I´m probably optimistic.
Coagulation
bumatlarge
MrZentor
Kibibit
Sabin010
Zephirdd
xsksc

Thoughts on this? Feel like removing any of them from the list?

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 24 2011 01:48 GMT

#1957

On November 24 2011 10:39 bumatlarge wrote:
If you are town and do not vote DCL or palmar, you are bad at mafia. End of story.

Still contributing, I see.

DCL? I can understand hating on Palmar, but I´m not following DCL. Most have him written down as a Blue.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 24 2011 02:13 GMT

#1959

On November 24 2011 11:03 bumatlarge wrote:

Show nested quote +

If he's blue palmar is scum. If you think palmar is town and really was shot, DCL is scum. I've gone over this.

This is a blue-heavy game, with scum potentially having 3 nightkills, why can´t there be 3 medics?

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 24 2011 10:19 GMT

#1973

On November 24 2011 13:02 bumatlarge wrote:

Show nested quote +

On November 24 2011 12:50 Cyber_Cheese wrote:

On November 24 2011 11:22 bumatlarge wrote:

On November 23 2011 17:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I think the most important thing you have to ask yourself now in deciding if you think this strategy is good is why do these 5 seem to have no problem voting so much on lynch candidates? In a majority lynch setting its obvious, you vote because you want them to die, and unless they seriously think each one of those 3 were really scum why else would they vote? Seems silly, the obvious answer is that they want them to die because the more dead townies there are the better it helps their win condition.

In a majority lynch game they HAVE to reach the number of votes to get a kill, meaning in this set up a vote list is even more powerful of an analytical tool then anything else we have. I have used votelists to catch scum in the past before and it is a very very good indicator. If you look at Arkham Asylum mafia Lucidity played a really really tight game from posting, I couldn't 100% put him as scum. He flew under really well. But as someone who made semi good intelligent posts he ALWAYS ended up on the wrong side of every lynch. When he was the only person to fuck up so bad the answer was simple, he was scum trying to save his own.

I don't really buy that this is how you plan on winning the game. I can understand it as a place to start in a multi-lynch format, but there needs to be a step two to this. That said, I can't really say why it isn't a good plan.

##Vote: Lanaia
##Vote: GreYMisT
##Vote: Forumite
##Vote: Nisani201
##Vote: Zephirdd

It might be a misread but I REALLY don't see cyber_cheese being scum. I've been reading his day 1 posts, and no one gave me such a town vibe as he did. I think the step two I mentioned is actually analyzing the players here.

Here's my problem with it. There are 5 living scum. You have 7 votes down. RoL has convinced you to place votes on townies. There are hazards in store for a town that uses degenerate strategies, and we don't know what they are. Therefore, it would be scum agenda to push a plan that essentially degenerates the game away from analysis of individuals.

Lynching townies is not bad if it in no way inhibits us from winnign the game. The only reason lynching townies is bad is in normal formats, that is one less town KP being used on scum. The only thing that could really hurt us lynching those players is if we are dead wrong and only 0-1 of them are scum, or Zona's warning kills townies, which I think it does not. I think it does not.

I initially thought to myself that perhaps the amount of people we lynch gives mafia that much KP, but three people died yesterday, and unless it's cumulative (which I don't see how that could be fair, unless we actually had about 5 doctors,) so I've ruled it out. I believe it could do anything short of actually killing people.

I don´t like what you are saying, bum. We really can´t mess up another day, because we need Townies around to win. A few more dead isn´t just less time until Scum win, it also makes it that much harder to lynch more Scum, because as their fraction of the total votes grow, they will have a much easier time controlling the lynch. And with your proposed lynches Scum WILL grow stronger. Of your proposed 7 lynches, I see one Town, 4 who are most likely Town, and 2 who are moderately scummy. Even if you do convince Town to lynch all 7, and nail as much as 2 scum with those votes, which is unlikely, 3 nightkills later we are at 6 Town and 3 Scum, and I don´t see us winning that situation. It might even be over immediately, if lynching 7 people somehow give Scum some more KP.

With all this, you are still saying DCL or Palmar is lying, while we in fact don´t know anything about the setup, it´s all speculation. Mafia KP could be dependant on total votes rather than people lynched, it could be changing over time, some game have it set by surviving scum, but it could just as well be set by some other factor, perhaps following a schedule of KP for each day, or Scum KP is 2 but gets an extra KP for each 3 lynches that are performed. Even the Medics could work in strange ways, perhaps they can´t protect anyone voting for them, or they have limited protects, or only protect every other night. You don´t consider that 3 full doctors could work in a scenario with 2 KP, because it can still be beaten by scum if they double up the kills, the doctors are probably spreading the protects, and they can´t know who scum are targeting. If a scenario with 3 doctors could be balanced, if there can be hidden mechanics with mafia KP, and even Medic protects, and you have no idea HOW it all works, how can you say for sure that either DCL or Palmar must lie? They could just as well both be telling the truth, we really don´t know, and speculation doesn´t get us very far in this case.

I don´t like how you are reasoning and what you are proposing. I would consider if your tactic weren´t so likely to give the game to Scum right now, but that´s what I think would happen. Today we need to kill a few, and we need to hit at least one Scum, that´s how we win. We don´t hit many in order to kill a few Scum, because then we won´t survive tomorrow even if we do find one of them.

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 24 2011 16:15 GMT

#1982

10 votes to lynch, and Nisani has 8, which is dangerously close to being voted and hammered. Right now I´m carefull to get on the bandwagon. The reason is that while Nisani has been voted heavily every day, very few confirmed Town have been on him. Of the 3 Town that died N2, only Drazerk has ever voted on Nisani. On the other hand, risk.nuke and Harbringer barely mentioned Nisani in their filters. I would expect there to be a more even distribution of Townies on his case. Since it isn´t that suggests that Scum spent two of the N2 nightkills on players that didn´t have a strong opinion of Nisani201, leaving those who would likely be frustrated after failing to lynch twice, and thereby making it easier to lynch him D3. Either this is an elaborate buss, or Nisani is most likely Town.

I think Nisani201 is Town.

Day 1:
Nisani201 (6): bumatlarge, wherebugsgo, Palmar, Drazerk, GreYMisT, sinani206

Day 2:
Nisani201 (9): Drazerk, wherebugsgo, ~~Lanaia~~, Lemonwalrus, xsksc, ~~Cyber_Cheese~~, DCLXVI, Cyber_Cheese, GreYMisT, Lanaia, bumatlarge

Day 3: (current votes)
Nisani201 (8): wherebugsgo, RebirthOfLeGenD, ~~Cyber_Cheese~~, Palmar, MrZentor, Tyrran, DCLXVI, Coagulation, bumatlarge

Number of times a player has voted on Nisani201
bumatlarge (3)
wherebugsgo (3)
Palmar (2)
Drazerk (2)
GreYMisT (2)
DCLXVI (2)
Lemonwalrus (1)
xsksc (1)
RebirthOfLeGenD (1)
MrZentor (1)
Tyrran (1)
Coagulation (1)
sinani206 (1)
Cyber_Cheese (2-1=1)
Lanaia (1-0=1)

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 24 2011 16:21 GMT

#1984

And no, voting for Nisani201 doesn´t make you scum, but if Scum wanted Town to lynch Nisani201 on their own, then those who voted several times, like WBG, would be poor targets for a Nightkill.

Including D3 votes when considering N2 kills might not make much sense, so below is the list for only D1 and D2.

Day 1:
Nisani201 (6): bumatlarge, wherebugsgo, Palmar, Drazerk, GreYMisT, sinani206

Day 2:
Nisani201 (9): Drazerk, wherebugsgo, ~~Lanaia~~, Lemonwalrus, xsksc, ~~Cyber_Cheese~~, DCLXVI, Cyber_Cheese, GreYMisT, Lanaia, bumatlarge

Number of times a player has voted on Nisani201
bumatlarge (2)
wherebugsgo (2)
Palmar (1)
Drazerk (2)
GreYMisT (2)
DCLXVI (1)
Lemonwalrus (1)
xsksc (1)
sinani206 (1)
Cyber_Cheese (2-1=1)
Lanaia (2-1=1)

Forumite

Sweden3280 Posts

November 24 2011 16:25 GMT

#1985

On November 25 2011 01:20 xsksc wrote:
Doesn't nisani have 10 votes now forumite?

You are right, I appear to have done a prplhz. I saw the votes in the thread, but forgot to update the zbot summary, and so didn´t know he had allready been lynched.

Prev 1 6 7 8 9 10 11 Next All

Please or register to reply.

Steamship Liquidia (TL Mafia 46) - Page 8

Completed

Ongoing

Upcoming