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On November 23 2011 17:24 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2011 12:44 Nisani201 wrote:
Do you realize that there is no actual case against me? I have been using logic and reason this entire game. That is why I am voting DCLXVI. Think before you vote. I know you like Palmar but you have to realize that he's manipulating you. No, you're not allowed to vote for a bunch of townies, then build cases against more townies, and claim you're using logic and reason. Shut up. About RebirthOfLeGenD, as much as it pains me to say it, that despite his awful play so far, there is no reason to believe he is scum, unless you believe Hiroruby was the mafia godfather. So I'm not willing to look at any case against him today. I would much rather we focus on chaoser (or his replacement), 666, or perhaps even nisani201, who I'm starting to lean scum on again. Other potential candidates include sabin010 and xscsc (or whatever his name is), who haven't contributed anything of value so far.
Why would Hiroruby have to be the mafia godfather? Are you claiming you checked me?
Anyway, please respond to my plan. You will be happy to know it doesn't involve killing you.
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On November 23 2011 18:26 wherebugsgo wrote:
yo RoL did you vote nisani/bum?
I'm all for lynching the people who bandwagoned like mad but we have to discriminate between who is more likely to be scum and who is less likely to be.
Sure, it'd be a great way to get rid of the hard decision by just killing them all now, but I think we should lynch the ones who are scummiest first and then with those flips we can start pushing into the rest of the group tomorrow.
In fact, most of the people who were on all 3 lynches are probably idiot townies. They wouldn't want that much attention on themselves. I think we need to more carefully consider those who were only on two lynches.
Basically, I say we start with nisani/bum/chaoser. I know chaoser wanted to vote prpl, so he would've actually been on two lynch bandwagons. Scum like to split their votes between two candidates when both are town. I know this because I did it myself as scum. My team would split, one half pushing one townie for lynch and the other pushing the other. No matter who won, a townie would die.
In this game, if both win, two townies die.
So let's look at the lynch and see who, if anyone, had at least 3 votes and was on either kenpachi or sinani day 1 but not the other on the same day, and then was also on prpl day 2:
Day 1:
Kenpachi(14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese
sinani206(14): chaoser (would have been on prpl day 2), GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes
Day 2:
prplhz (12): Forumite, Drazerk, GreYMisT, Nisani201, hyshes, bumatlarge, risk.nuke, Kibibit, Sabin010, Lanaia, xsksc, Coagulation (would have been chaoser here as vote 13)
From this vote pattern alone some of the 3 voters (such as Cyber_Cheese and GreYMisT) are less likely to be scum (though we can't rule it out)
This is on the assumption that scum would split their vote to avoid as much suspicion as possible.
This means we should focus on:
bumatlarge, nisani, chaoser/mrzentor, forumite, lanaia.
All names I think are likely to bleed red.
If I missed something, let me know.
At the end of the day you can't ignore what mafia aganda is. Their goal is to kill as many of us as possible and while avoiding a suspect list is good if it means not killing people its a choice they probably won't make. To be honest I don't like the weird way you are trying to use this list. Why would you vote Chaoser/Bum when they aren't high in the +3 area. Seems strange. I can almost guarantee you among those 5 I mentioned there are a couple of scum. I would happily kill them all because its a good trade.
Anyone else want to contribute?
Zephirdd, Nisani, DCLXVI, Greymist, Cyber_cheese, Lanaia, Forumite
These 7, kill them all. I welcome analysis on them if anyone wants to do it.
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On November 23 2011 20:35 wherebugsgo wrote:
insta-win lol.
you never explained what makes bum unlikely to be scum.
Voting record looks fine for him, but to be honest that's the only reason I am using. I haven't done an actual analysis on him.
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As for those who stand out more scummy, I read a bit more of the the thread and Forumite, Greymist, Nisani, Zephirdd seem the most scummy out of my list. I'd suggest everyone at least vote for them.
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I also somehow forgot this yesterday.
##Vote: Cyber_Cheese
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Sigh, no verbal pressure motivates me to post. I do it if I have time and something to say. I currently have both.
Palmar, my play makes sense because it uses a well founded concept as voting analysis to determine who are likely scum. I have used it before and its effective. I know I proposed lynching 7 people simultaneously but I gave reasoning. If you really really think that some of the named people are town (which at least two of them are.) Then give us some beyond justifiable reason to remove them from that list of bad voters.
Only really really exemplary reasons are worthwhile or we run the risk of mafia manipulating evidence and public opinion to let there members off the hook today. I assure you we have mafia in that list, and I will keep pushing for their mass lynch unless you can seriously undermine my reasoning.
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On November 24 2011 03:11 DCLXVI wrote:I'm not sure why voting fro drazerk was such a bad thing at the time. He admitted in the thread that he was purposely playing badly in order to bait reactions out of people. While I question his tactics I certainly cannot condemn anyone for voting for someone who tried to look as bad as possible. Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 00:42 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
At the end of the day you can't ignore what mafia aganda is. Their goal is to kill as many of us as possible and while avoiding a suspect list is good if it means not killing people its a choice they probably won't make. To be honest I don't like the weird way you are trying to use this list. Why would you vote Chaoser/Bum when they aren't high in the +3 area. Seems strange. I can almost guarantee you among those 5 I mentioned there are a couple of scum. I would happily kill them all because its a good trade.
Anyone else want to contribute?
Zephirdd, Nisani, DCLXVI, Greymist, Cyber_cheese, Lanaia, Forumite
These 7, kill them all. I welcome analysis on them if anyone wants to do it. I don't think voting off at least 3 people with power roles, likely blues, would be anything other than a mafia agenda: "Their goal is to kill off as many of us as possible." Is this really your best plan, to slaughter the remaining power roles? Neither of the lynches were hard for the mafia to push, I highly doubt each mafia needed to jump on both bandwagons. ##Vote RebirthOfLeGenD
##Vote Nisani201I will hold off voting Palmar for now as I reconsider given last nights kills.
I narrowed it down to 4 people iirc. None of which included you or Lanaia. Do you disagree that there are likely maifa on that lynch? And you are wrong. The lynches may not have been hard to push in the sense that no one defended them, but either way you have to get the requisite vote count to actually get a player lynched.
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On November 24 2011 12:50 Cyber_Cheese wrote:Show nested quote +On November 24 2011 11:22 bumatlarge wrote:On November 23 2011 17:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I think the most important thing you have to ask yourself now in deciding if you think this strategy is good is why do these 5 seem to have no problem voting so much on lynch candidates? In a majority lynch setting its obvious, you vote because you want them to die, and unless they seriously think each one of those 3 were really scum why else would they vote? Seems silly, the obvious answer is that they want them to die because the more dead townies there are the better it helps their win condition.
In a majority lynch game they HAVE to reach the number of votes to get a kill, meaning in this set up a vote list is even more powerful of an analytical tool then anything else we have. I have used votelists to catch scum in the past before and it is a very very good indicator. If you look at Arkham Asylum mafia Lucidity played a really really tight game from posting, I couldn't 100% put him as scum. He flew under really well. But as someone who made semi good intelligent posts he ALWAYS ended up on the wrong side of every lynch. When he was the only person to fuck up so bad the answer was simple, he was scum trying to save his own. I don't really buy that this is how you plan on winning the game. I can understand it as a place to start in a multi-lynch format, but there needs to be a step two to this. That said, I can't really say why it isn't a good plan. ##Vote: Lanaia
##Vote: GreYMisT
##Vote: Forumite
##Vote: Nisani201
##Vote: ZephirddIt might be a misread but I REALLY don't see cyber_cheese being scum. I've been reading his day 1 posts, and no one gave me such a town vibe as he did. I think the step two I mentioned is actually analyzing the players here. Here's my problem with it. There are 5 living scum. You have 7 votes down. RoL has convinced you to place votes on townies. There are hazards in store for a town that uses degenerate strategies, and we don't know what they are. Therefore, it would be scum agenda to push a plan that essentially degenerates the game away from analysis of individuals.
Bum is actually correct. Step two would involve analyzing each player on that list and deciding which ones I think deserve the hammer more so than the others. The easier approach is just to kill them all and be done with it. That being said, I really would prefer not to lynch Cyber_cheese, DCI, or Lanaia and we focus on the other 4. Among which, Nisani is already lynched which leaves with with Forumite, Greymist, and Zephirdd. I don't think 4 lynches will get us punished by the host or in game mechanics.
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On November 25 2011 21:19 Palmar wrote:
My role is: Town Records Cop
I can alignment check people I voted for on the previous day. This is the reason I caught so quickly on chaoser's random voting thing, and became sure he wasn't town.
Night 1 I investigated Bumatlarge and received a Town-aligned result
Night 2 I investigated RebirthOfLeGenD and received a Town-aligned result.
Both results I left with pretty damn obvious breadcrumbs "Unless you think X is godfather, I don't think we should lynch him".
Caught that, I suppose no reason for me to ever claim then ;P
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On November 25 2011 19:42 Palmar wrote:
Killing these people (+ the people who don't care) should be a good idea.
Something like
##Vote Cyber_Cheese
##Vote Forumit
##Vote Sabin010
##Vote DCLXVI
##Vote xsksc
Let's leave the others for now.
Can I request Coagulation be modkilled for inactivity? In addition Kibibit should be pretty close to a modkill.
Seems like someone is more or less going with my plan. You are missing a few votes there sir.
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I am a VT. Why do you want to kill MrZenter?
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##Vote: Coagulation
##Vote: Sabin010
We need more lynches.
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On November 26 2011 09:56 wherebugsgo wrote:
yo RoL let's wait till the flip.
What do you think of Zephirdd?
Kill him. He has a shitty voting pattern as pointed out earlier.
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On November 26 2011 16:51 wherebugsgo wrote:
scum would never shoot you.
You're one of 5 nonconfirmed players who didn't vote Coag. You're about as scummy as they get.
You sir are playing a beautiful game.
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GL Sorry I couldn't perform up to standard. Swamped this semester :/
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On November 24 2011 00:42 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2011 18:26 wherebugsgo wrote:
yo RoL did you vote nisani/bum?
I'm all for lynching the people who bandwagoned like mad but we have to discriminate between who is more likely to be scum and who is less likely to be.
Sure, it'd be a great way to get rid of the hard decision by just killing them all now, but I think we should lynch the ones who are scummiest first and then with those flips we can start pushing into the rest of the group tomorrow.
In fact, most of the people who were on all 3 lynches are probably idiot townies. They wouldn't want that much attention on themselves. I think we need to more carefully consider those who were only on two lynches.
Basically, I say we start with nisani/bum/chaoser. I know chaoser wanted to vote prpl, so he would've actually been on two lynch bandwagons. Scum like to split their votes between two candidates when both are town. I know this because I did it myself as scum. My team would split, one half pushing one townie for lynch and the other pushing the other. No matter who won, a townie would die.
In this game, if both win, two townies die.
So let's look at the lynch and see who, if anyone, had at least 3 votes and was on either kenpachi or sinani day 1 but not the other on the same day, and then was also on prpl day 2:
Day 1:
Kenpachi(14): bumatlarge, DCLXVI, prplhz, Drazerk, Zephirdd, Palmar, GreYMisT, risk.nuke, Tyrran, Lemonwalrus Hiroruby, sinani206, Nisani201, Cyber_Cheese
sinani206(14): chaoser (would have been on prpl day 2), GreYMisT, Lanaia, DCLXVI, Drazerk, Cyber_Cheese, risk.nuke, LSB, Tyrran, Forumite, Lemonwalrus, Zephirdd, HarbingerOfDoom, hyshes
Day 2:
prplhz (12): Forumite, Drazerk, GreYMisT, Nisani201, hyshes, bumatlarge, risk.nuke, Kibibit, Sabin010, Lanaia, xsksc, Coagulation (would have been chaoser here as vote 13)
From this vote pattern alone some of the 3 voters (such as Cyber_Cheese and GreYMisT) are less likely to be scum (though we can't rule it out)
This is on the assumption that scum would split their vote to avoid as much suspicion as possible.
This means we should focus on:
bumatlarge, nisani, chaoser/mrzentor, forumite, lanaia.
All names I think are likely to bleed red.
If I missed something, let me know. At the end of the day you can't ignore what mafia aganda is. Their goal is to kill as many of us as possible and while avoiding a suspect list is good if it means not killing people its a choice they probably won't make. To be honest I don't like the weird way you are trying to use this list. Why would you vote Chaoser/Bum when they aren't high in the +3 area. Seems strange. I can almost guarantee you among those 5 I mentioned there are a couple of scum. I would happily kill them all because its a good trade. Anyone else want to contribute? Zephirdd, Nisani, DCLXVI, Greymist, Cyber_cheese, Lanaia, Forumite These 7, kill them all. I welcome analysis on them if anyone wants to do it.
This is what I was laughing at greymist. I only missed your two inactive members ;P I was too lazy to actually ever do analysis, but I knew using this method would kill a good bunch of you.
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On November 30 2011 13:01 GreYMisT wrote:
yea, but the platform would have failed, unless you wanted to do it over time
It wouldn't of failed since I ended up excluding DCL in a later post.
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On November 30 2011 19:51 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2011 18:57 syllogism wrote:
I'm so sick of "veterans" who don't post enough to even establish their own innocence OR support the right people This is the core of the issue. Way too many mafia players are afraid of being wrong. There is nothing wrong with being wrong, if you give ample reasoning as for why you're wrong, and are willing to listen to logic as to why your logic was bad. Everyone makes bad calls. But you need to pick sides. And you need to be willing to reconsider which side you're on. You will see circles form in games of people who trust each other. If you see this, you should do research into why they trust each other, or simply ask them. They will provide reasoning. You need to support someone. The worst town play is to stay in your own corner and not trust anyone. Remember that statistically you can randomly buddy up with someone and he has 70-80% chance of being town. Using a bit of analysis increases that value. What this means is that no town can afford players who don't commit themselves. Sadly we have to balance mafia games around people who don't intend to actually play.
This is one of the main reasons I avoid large games now. over 25ish players and I won't generally play anymore. I prefer less than 20 player games, this game seemed interesting so I made an exception. I was busy so I couldn't contribute anymore near as much as I should of been able to.
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On December 01 2011 06:07 wherebugsgo wrote:
normally, flavor text is just that...flavor.
I didn't realize there would be game-relevant clues in the flavor so I didn't bother looking too deeply into it.
The only other games I have seen that in are the Insane Mafia's. Where it gives the town an idea of what powers are active. Usually its stated in the OP though.
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EPT
