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Forum Index > TL Mafia
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sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 07 2011 21:43 GMT
#872
I did already, filter me and read the part where I say what I expected from town and scum to do. It's funny how most of you guys keep posting "What have YOU done?" when the great majority of you have done way less =/
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 07 2011 21:54 GMT
#879
On November 04 2011 11:10 sandroba wrote:
I agree with you that supersoft is likely town, but I'm interested in your reasoning for forumite/prplhz. This particular post from forumite is pretty scummy to me:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2011 09:11 Forumite wrote:
On November 04 2011 07:52 prplhz wrote:
Well I'm sold, I hope Forumite feels the same way 'cause:

##Unvote
##Vote Team SS
Sure, you can pick this lynch, I´ll pick the next one


Not only he shows that he is not concerned about who we lynch today, but also shows a certainty that he will be around longer.
Why exactly do you believe they are town kita?

Also my post about no lynch (despite me agreeing with it) was a method to get reads from people. It's a controversial issue and I would expect a strong reaction from townies regarding that topic, but some consideration aswell. Some players raised good points most of which I agree with and some where impartial or aloof. Obviously I'm aware that I would become easy lynch bait for scum to pile on, but that doesn't bother me as I'm sure there are inteligent players here.

In retrospect I admit that I didn't explain much.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 07 2011 21:56 GMT
#883
gl town.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 07 2011 21:57 GMT
#887
you guys so smart, you really nailed me, I was mafia all along muahahaha.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 07 2011 21:59 GMT
#891
no point in keeping the cover up now decon, commend them in a job well done.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 07 2011 22:01 GMT
#893
On November 08 2011 06:58 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2011 06:57 sandroba wrote:
you guys so smart, you really nailed me, I was mafia all along muahahaha.


You're hammered. You're not allowed to taunt us if we're wrong

I thought you could post non-game related stuff? I'm not giving away any more reads or anything, it's all in good fun =P
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 07 2011 22:14 GMT
#901
Yeah especially now that they have taken away our ability to do so.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:02 GMT
#1558
When analysing claims I like to think of what that claim would have gained for each perspective and what motivations each team has for claiming at that spot. Just like redFF's claim in ressurection mafia: He claimed a weird role that wasn't in the OP, when he had 0 votes on him on the beggining of day2. What does scum has to gain in that scenario? Nothing. The claim only draws more suspicion onto scum and puts them in a worse position then before. Scum usually plays with inherent fear and tries to do shit the safest way possible. They don't like to give out info for free about their aligment or others'. redFF's claim in that game gave town info about the dead oracle's aligment based on his own. It's free info for town even if redFF is lying. Yes, scum could have made that claim, but the real question is why would they?

GM in this game claims doctor at night. At that point no one was set on lynching anyone and scum was in a good position. Scum had information about roles of 3 townies dead 1 (potential) check and 1 claim. They didn't even need to kill the doctor to win since the cop is parity and town couldn't no lynch day 3. So what benefit claiming in that spot generates for scum?
In the scenario there is a jailer or doctor you can't even guarantee they will cc you on the spot since the best play is to remain hidden and cc during the day (worst case scenario you get shot as blue either way and your flip is a cc). So in the best case scenario someone cc's you and you kill them if you already didn't know their role. That puts you in the position gm was in day3: A lot of suspicion onto you and as scum you almost feel like you will get lynched after this no matter what. All this for a possible piece of info you didn't need to win the game. This goes extremelly against the mentality of scum and is not good play for them.
In the scenario there is no other blue you won't know it even if there is no cc until the begining of day3. Even then you are forever forbidden of shooting the parity cop until you die or you trade yourself for him. So you are in the same spot as before. The only difference is that if town lynches correctly day3 you auto day 4 lose instead of 50% lose.
Both scenarios put you in a worst position than you were before you claimed and both it draws a fuckton of suspicion onto you for no reason because of the timing of the claim. There is very little chance scum would do that. Scum may pass up on a opportunity to make a balsy and lucrative claim because of fear, but they very rarely make a terrible unproffitable claim despite fear.

That's my take on it.

Regarding the game wbg played well, you unfortunatelly had xlv as alibi, so I couldn't trust you to be reasonable =P. Rad being afk help you too because I couldn't be sure that he was reading closely or accepting w/e you were saying by default.
My mini case on kurumi unfortunately got ignored but that proved he was scum day2 =/
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:15 GMT
#1560
Yes they may claim when that gains them town cred but how was that the case in the 2 scenarios I listed? That did exactly the oposite in both cases. My point both those claims would have gained them no cred in the best possible scenario, so it's a bad claim for scum and unlikely.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:19 GMT
#1561
And I'm not saying people play with that mindset, it's just observed psichology. You can also look at the player in question if you have previous knowledge of his behaviour and try to determine how likely they are to behave like that as scum on that spot. After all this game is about behaviour, not hardset rules that determine: After someone does this -> you must do this.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-10 03:27:01
November 10 2011 03:26 GMT
#1563
You are looking at the outcome. I don't agree. Would GM be more likely lynched prior to him make the claim? No, the opposite. Then it's a bad claim.
Yes scum could have done the same, but why would they? Again, it gains them no cred and stops them from killing the parity cop.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:30 GMT
#1566
"There is only one such thing as a bad claim for Scum: Will I get lynched or lose the game for my team? "
And I don't even think you even believe that. You are just trying to win an argument. A claim is only good if it improves your chances of winning. Otherwise it's bad or irrelevant at best. It's that simple.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:36 GMT
#1572
On November 10 2011 12:30 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2011 12:26 sandroba wrote:
You are looking at the outcome. I don't agree. Would GM be more likely lynched prior to him make the claim? No, the opposite. Then it's a bad claim.
Yes scum could have done the same, but why would they? Again, it gains them no cred and stops them from killing the parity cop.


Because you know it won't get you lynched - thats the bottom line. I mean jeez, it's not like I myself on this very forum in a game you were in haven't fake claimed as Scum and destroyed the Town just because I could. It advances my win condition by making people think I'm Town. Did I die? No. Good, my role claim holds and now there is 1 Scum member outside the pool of suspects.

Unless you've got some epic examples to prove otherwise with players better than me doing it multiple times I'm not buying that shit.

Your claim in sleeper cell improved our chances of winning, was backed up by my claim and made sense. It gained you cred, justified you being alive at that point and helped keep you and your teamates alive. So it furthered your goals. This can't be said about GM's claim this game, as it would not have furthered his goals, as demonstrated in my previous post. At best they would be in a equal standing compared to before the claim. At worse it would completely hamper his chances of winning the game.

And how exactly can you quantify how good you are and another player is? It's kind of a biased opinion don't you agree?
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:37 GMT
#1574
On November 10 2011 12:33 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
A claim is only good if it improves your chances of winning. Otherwise it's bad or irrelevant at best. It's that simple.


This is just WIFOM. If GM was actually mafia and pulled that shit you would have been fucked.

The same way if kita was mafia and pulled a pc claim we would all have been fucked. Does that make it likely he did it as mafia on that spot? No. Everyone believe him because that was an extreme and unecessary risk for mafia to take at that spot. Just like GM's.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:48 GMT
#1578
On November 10 2011 12:21 Ace wrote:
There is only one such thing as a bad claim for Scum: Will I get lynched or lose the game for my team?

If the answer is no, then it is a good claim. I've already explained this earlier in the thread. GM faked a roleclaim as Town and DID NOT GET LYNCHED. He could have done the same as Scum and hey guess what - CRED! Fuck it, it's LYLO - he doesn't even need major cred. He only needs to avoid being lynched. "Hai guys I know that dead medic over there contradicts my story but I have an excuse for why I lied even though it doesn't tell you guys jack shit about me being Town -lolz 4real believe me".

WBG even pointed out that there was nothing in the scenario regarding the check on him that tells you anything about GMs alignment. Literally you could have switched WBG and GM, lynched a Townie and then what? You're really going to make the same argument?

Laughable.

Seriously just ditch this forum and go play somewhere else. Pathetic level mafia games being played by the same pathetic players month after month and people are still falling for the same amateur level shit.

Except that WBG was mafia and didn't make that claim. I wonder why?
Also no one is saying that fake claim = town. You are saying that fake claim = lynch and that is PROVEN to not always be the correct play. Each and every piece of info this game provides you has to be analysed and considered, there isn't a flow chart of reactions proven to always work.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:49 GMT
#1579
On November 10 2011 12:45 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2011 12:37 sandroba wrote:
On November 10 2011 12:33 chaoser wrote:
A claim is only good if it improves your chances of winning. Otherwise it's bad or irrelevant at best. It's that simple.


This is just WIFOM. If GM was actually mafia and pulled that shit you would have been fucked.

The same way if kita was mafia and pulled a pc claim we would all have been fucked. Does that make it likely he did it as mafia on that spot? No. Everyone believe him because that was an extreme and unecessary risk for mafia to take at that spot. Just like GM's.


One day I'mma pull a claim like this and then win the game with it.

If you want to gamble like that, I don't think mafia is your game of preference =P
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:54 GMT
#1581
On November 10 2011 12:45 Ace wrote:
In Sleeper Cell I had the Town under my thumb from Day 1. Did I really need to claim? We could have easily won anyway without my claim right? Thats what I'm telling you. As long as I know I have a high chance of winning that is the final truth. There is no complex scenario here. Your claim was icing on the cake but we could have won even with me getting lynched. You keep acting as if every Scum player has this irrational fear of doing things that might get them caught when that only applies to scrubs.

GM could have done the same thing here as Scum. And this is what you guys don't seem to understand. As scum he could claim medic and EVEN IF HE GOT LYNCHED if he believes his team can win then that shits on any excuse any of you have. I've already outlined how a Scum GM can play it the same way and win the game. Read the post if you keep refusing to believe me.

Show nested quote +

Scum GM fake claims medic. If the actual medic flips he has the already stated alibi to say that he was just doing it to WIFOM the Scum night kill. If no medic flips then he can just say he protected so and so on each night knowing no one can prove him wrong since he knows all the NKs, or most importantly claims to prot the PC every night.

Town GM shows up with a medic fake claim.

What is the difference here?


Answer this if you're so confident. What is the difference between Scum GM and Town GM here?

Both of them lied about their claim and can't be verified. In what world does it make sense for the Town to even keep a player alive at LYLO that can't be verified but you've just seen the actual role flip.

The difference is that scum GM will for the great majority of time never make that claim in that spot. Ask him if you don't believe me. Knowing that makes me believe he is town in that spot the vast majority of the time. So lynching him is negative e.v.
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 03:59 GMT
#1584
Ace I'm calling you out on that. When was the last time you "outplayed" all the scrubs in this forum? I don't see you winning every game you sign up for =P
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
November 10 2011 04:03 GMT
#1588
On November 10 2011 12:54 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2011 12:48 sandroba wrote:
On November 10 2011 12:21 Ace wrote:
There is only one such thing as a bad claim for Scum: Will I get lynched or lose the game for my team?

If the answer is no, then it is a good claim. I've already explained this earlier in the thread. GM faked a roleclaim as Town and DID NOT GET LYNCHED. He could have done the same as Scum and hey guess what - CRED! Fuck it, it's LYLO - he doesn't even need major cred. He only needs to avoid being lynched. "Hai guys I know that dead medic over there contradicts my story but I have an excuse for why I lied even though it doesn't tell you guys jack shit about me being Town -lolz 4real believe me".

WBG even pointed out that there was nothing in the scenario regarding the check on him that tells you anything about GMs alignment. Literally you could have switched WBG and GM, lynched a Townie and then what? You're really going to make the same argument?

Laughable.

Seriously just ditch this forum and go play somewhere else. Pathetic level mafia games being played by the same pathetic players month after month and people are still falling for the same amateur level shit.

Except that WBG was mafia and didn't make that claim. I wonder why?
Also no one is saying that fake claim = town. You are saying that fake claim = lynch and that is PROVEN to not always be the correct play. Each and every piece of info this game provides you has to be analysed and considered, there isn't a flow chart of reactions proven to always work.


No shit you lynch the Fake Claim. Look let's keep it simple smart guy:

Who is more inclined to lie in a game of Mafia?

What happens more often? A Townie lying for the sake of the Town or Scum lying?

Thanks. This is why I'm better than all of you.


Depends on the situation. Certain situations make no sense for mafia to be lying for no gain. If you keep generalising everything you are going to lose a fair bit of games that you could have won had you analysed each scenario separately.

Clearly this is an issue of who is better than whom. Am I bothering you by being right when you are wrong?
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