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Let's see if we can garner any information from the voting from our no-lynch and our somehow even more useless lynching.
Removing the dead players from the list, we have this as the voting from day 1:
Hacklebeast
Zanfada
Chocolate
Toadesstern
Skrammen
Zanfada
Drem903
Skrammen
Chocolate
Ciryandor
Toadesstern
xsksc
Zanfada
HarbingerOfDoom
Toadesstern
hacklebeast
IMABUNNEH
This represents 7 town votes and 3 scum votes. Now, assuming scum wouldn't risk a chance of lynching another scum, this means we either had 6 of the 7 votes from surviving townies on Skrammen, or Skrammen is clean and had one or more scum votes for him. I think 1 or 2 scum votes on him is the most likely, as putting all 3 on him would have been incredibly risky play.
From our day 2 voting, all we know is Ciry didn't make it back in time to do anything other than leave his vote on Drem, but I think we can safely eliminate the possibility that Ciry and Drem are both mafia, as Hyshes tried to suggest.
Not much info, but perhaps worth considering.
As for some other matters:
Bunneh: I'm going to keep pestering you until you do post that analysis of me. Empty promises of analysis won't fly on my watch.
Chocolate: Tomorrow evening I will try to compile a list of who everyone has accused/fosd to make it easier for us to identify who the mafia are, or at least who is ignoring who. Let's see it. Additionally, some actual analysis out of you would be most appreciated. What are your current scum reads? You said you thought Drem was almost certainly mafia but didn't vote for him. After the Hyshes ordeal, you vote for him with this as your explanation: The reason I'm picking on you is 1) you have the most votes and 2) you seem a little fishy, and that whole voting for yourself business was weird. I don't think I need to tell you that 1) There's a bandwagon on you and 2) You seem a bit suspicious isn't a great basis for a vote if that's really all you had against him.
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@xsksc
Yes, that lynch gave us about as little info as possible, but that doesn't mean we should shut up and waste 24 hours of scum-hunting time. We have more to discuss now then we did when the game first started, and back then your opinion on that matter seemed a bit different:
Please don't be afraid to post guys, if town is inactive it only helps scum lurk and get away with killing us all off. We do have to lynch someone today so please keep posting people!
Here, I'll help you out and give you something to discuss.
I think my scum list at the moment would be something like this
1) Toad OR Skrammen
2) Drem
3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle
This list is definitely not set in stone, I only recently added drem to it and hyshes could probably be replaced by a lot of people I haven't properly looked at yet.
Harbringers case is good, but it doesn't make me 100% feel hes scum.
Will update when I've finished re-reading/filtering. Did you ever go back through and re-read/filter? If yes, did anything change? If not, why didn't you? What's your updated list now? Any changes besides removing Hyshes?
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![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/IvfDI.gif)
Posts longer than 1 sentence made by people currently in the game, other than me, in the past 22 hours: 3
They are chocolate's voting post, toad's post lynch summary, and xsksc answering my questions.
Do I have to individually ask you all questions to keep this thread from dying and to keep discussion going? If you're paying attention to the thread at all, and you want to help town win, CONTRIBUTE SOMETHING.
Personally, I still don't have much of a read on Drem other than he is playing the newbie card pretty hard, nor do I have much on xsksc, chocolate, or, of course, hackle.
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Hi Sermokala, if you're town it would greatly help if you made an attempt to compensate for hackle saying nothing ever :-D
Also...nobody died? Either an interesting mafia ploy, good work by a medic, or mafia inactivity. Whichever it is I'll take it.
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On November 05 2011 11:42 sermokala wrote:
##vote Toadesstern
God damm I've wanted to vote him so hard from before this game got into the teen pages. Every post that I've seen him post just oozes scum.
Next skrammen dies. They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum.
You think they are both scum when Toad was the third vote on Skrammen day 1? When it couldn't be known whether that would get him killed or not? Somehow I sincerely doubt scum would have been willing to risk bussing one of their own that early on...
If you think Skrammen is scum or if you think Toad is scum, I could understand some, but both I cannot comprehend. You'll have to explain yourself a lot better than that. Also, you'll have to do a lot of posting/explaining in general if you actually want to help us out. Hackle didn't exactly leave us with much to work with.
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Editing posts is not allowed, don't even think about doing it.
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Chocolate and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
The same goes for Skrammen and xsksc.
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@sermokala
You still did nothing to address this:
You think they are both scum when Toad was the third vote on Skrammen day 1? When it couldn't be known whether that would get him killed or not?
Analysis is important, but make it good. I have some questions regarding yours:
his first moves in this very thread are counter to another instead of just srugging off and trying to elaborate on someone else. What does this sentence even mean?
You have nothing listed as exhibit number 3, did you mean to post more? If so, why did you remove it?
In exhibit 4, if the voting for Hyshes is an implication of being scum, can you please explain why everyone else voting for him isn't scum as well? Also, does that imply you believe me to be scum for starting the case against Hyshes?
Also, from Toad 5 hours before your exhibit 5, in regards to him 'not saying' his reads:
Right now I'd still like to push for hackle the most. Drem and skrammen both are strange but I'm not sure about both right now. Drems mistake the other day is just so simple it got to be a real mistake rather than a scumslip. Also given he doesen't know how many mafias are in this game I'd sag he's not mafia. I still got a feeling skrammen might be green,
I'm off to univerity now and will look this through later on.
Also, at the time of your exhibit he is voting for Hyshes, so clearly he thought Hyshes is scum as well. Don't abuse a lack of context with quoting, it is a scummy thing to do.
I accept exhibit two and the point about him being a benefactor from Risk's death. Exhibit one I don't understand so I cannot comment on.
Also, this won't fly:
First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive Expect me to drill you on everything until I have a good read on you. Feel free to help out by posting lots of your reads and explanations for them. A good starting point would be answering my original question regarding Skrammen/Toad. Additionally, I would like your reads on Chocolate and xsksc, along with an explanation of course.
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Continuing with my usual information requests...
Zanfada and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
Same for Zanfada and Bunneh.
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Deadline isn't coming up that soon. Deadline is over 24 hours away, you gonna stay up until then? :-P
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I'll re-read stuff and make sure my reads still makes sense on a closer inspection later, but for now I'd like to mention my current thoughts on the situation to give people some time to look into things themselves:
People voting for Toad, you're going to have to make a stronger case than you have so far if you want me on board. We need 6 to lynch, and we have 7 town left, so I assume you do. Or you can wait for Ciry to make his post, and pray he thinks Toad is scum and argues it well :-P Personally I'd recommend putting together something yourself.
People who want Skrammen lynched, I'd really like to see a stronger case made here as well. I know I was an advocate of his lynch day 1, but I have more of a town read on him than I did then, and lynching solely for information without a very good chance of scum is a big risk at this point. That being said, us winning without a lynch today will be extraordinarily difficult, so worst case scenario I might be willing to vote for him to get a lynch, even without further evidence. Once again, I'd really recommend making a stronger case here.
People who want Drem lynched, again I have my doubts. Probably similar feelings to what I have on Skrammen, but I would also like to encourage everyone to look through at how many people seem to be fine with Drem being lynched. Scum looking for town cred, and setting up a bus if needed? Maybe, but I'm not convinced.
People I would like everyone to take a closer look at: xsksc and Chocolate
I'm not saying that they are scum yet, and as I said I will check things out more closely when I get the chance, but I'd certainly like to call some attention to these two as they have gotten away with far too little scrutiny on them.
@Sermokala:
I know you joined in late, but if you're town you better get caught up and do a hell of a lot of talking to help us figure out what side you're on.
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So I thought I'd have more time now, as the original plan was my gf got back this evening, but instead she'll apparently be back within the next 15 minutes now. As such, I don't think I'll be able to make a big case post now (maybe I'll still get one up before the deadline? :-/), but I thought I'd make some contributions while I can.
@Skrammen regarding Drem, possibly a bit outdated, but: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=23#444
Might have the info you want.
Unless something comes up to change my mind, I am willing to vote for the following 4 people today: Skrammen, Chocolate, xsksc, Drem. With a preference in order of xsksc, Chocolate, Skrammen, Drem.
Should be back in time to change as somehow I doubt this one will garner enough votes to ensure a lynch, but for now
##vote xsksc
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Alright, back again, but probably not for too long unfortunately.
First, to respond to Sermokala:
HarbingerOfDoom
He seems really experienced. or hes putting way too much effort into being a "veteran" townie and has been leading a lot of the lynches I think to this point. With all of them being wrong and poorly supported I don't trust him and I think more people should be questioning him. He has too much confidence I feel for someone trying to find out whos going to kill him and I don't like that. He is the first to post and apologies for starting the wagon that killed hy? hy said that toad was scum and accused hod and was cast away for this.
In regards to the part of leading a lot of lynches and all of them being wrong...we have had one lynch. If you think my case against Hyshes was poor, you're entitled to think that, but I believe it was a pretty strong case, and his subsequent martyrdom didn't help lower the suspicion at all. Yes, I was also one of the first people to pressure Skrammen, but we still can't say for sure whether or not he is scum, although I am now rather 50/50 on him. That case was certainly not the strongest, but at a time when most people had less than 10 posts to their name, and some as few as 2, I don't know how strong of a case you'd expect to have. For apologizing regarding the Hyshes lynch, I apologized because it greatly reduced our chances of winning and I was obviously largely responsible for that, seems reasonable to me...? As for hyshes accusing me of being scum, that is a complete lie. I challenge you to find a post where he does. I'll give you a hint: he never does. He called my argument against him a wall of shit, but he never once FOS'ed me or accused me of being scum. As for the confidence, it takes a majority to get a lynch, no-lynches are bad for town, you try convincing people without presenting your case confidently and let me know how that works for you. Additionally, I would like to remind you that you have addressed 0 of my questions/concerns regarding your case on Toad.
In regards to Bunneh, he voted with me on one lynch, the Hyshes one, he voted toad day one. The only person that didn't vote for Hyshes (besides Hyshes himself, although he tried to) is Ciry, so I think any argument based on that day's voting is an incredibly weak argument. As for me not calling him out at all:
+ Show Spoiler +@Bunneh
I thought you were going to look into my post history and make a statement regarding it? Am I not special enough for that? :-( Bunneh: I'm going to keep pestering you until you do post that analysis of me. Empty promises of analysis won't fly on my watch. Continuing with my usual information requests...
Zanfada and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course.
Same for Zanfada and Bunneh.
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As for my vote, as the strikethrough indicates my girlfriend returned in the middle writing that post, so it was less than complete. The short version of my case on him is: has contributed rather little to the discussions, has made a good number of filler type posts to appear. Votes Skrammen after calling out only Toad and Zanfada for suspicion day 1, trying to blend in? Or did he somehow have a change of heart? Loves mentioning time-zone difficulties as often as possible. Basically nobody has accused him, where any one else lurking that I have suspicion of has been called out for lurking by multiple people. It's easier to slip by if 2 other people want you to be able to slip by.
As mentioned earlier, I have no intentions of blocking a lynch, but I figured maybe my vote alone would be enough to make xsksc talk a bit more which was better than nothing.
Brief explanation of Drem vote: He's been playing the newbie card really hard all game. Granted this is a newbie game, but his 'mistakes' have always had the effect of helping out scum, whether it be blocking a lynch, or spreading misinformation regarding the town/mafia balance. He also originally says he doesn't have a good reason as to why he didn't vote Skrammen, then later says he didn't because he was worried a mis-lynch would have been much worse for town than a no-lynch was. Why would he go back and change his mind on this?
Why I don't really like the lynch on him and would much prefer xsksc, Chocolate, or Skrammen: As I mentioned earlier, everyone seems to be fine with this guy dying. Either he is being set up for a bussing, or he is clean.
Sorry I've been rather busy the last ~40 hours or so and my approach to this lynch have been more half-assed than I would like, sometimes real life happens, even to us nerds.
##Unvote xsksc
##Vote Drem903
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@Toad
I think I wasn't a large enough threat day 1, as I had a bit of suspicion thrown on me as well. Ciry was a decent target, but they couldn't know if there was a medic and he was the only one that it made sense to protect. Day 2 I'd be willing to guess that they did try for one of us and our medic blocked it. Also if you flip red I'd be guessing plenty of people would be much more open to going after me considering I've defended you as being town in my opinion. Your reads since day 2 just line up too well with mine for me to think you are actually scum, so if you get lynched and somehow flip red, I'll be as surprised as Sermokala will be if you flip green.
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Ninja'ed by toad to some extent, but to anyone thinking Ciry and I are town, it takes all but one town vote to lynch without scum help, so ask yourselves, do you think the entire rest of town is voting Toad right now?
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@Drem
You're the last one my list of people I am willing to lynch, but I think scum influence is winning out and I'll take a 30% chance of hitting scum right now over a 0% in a blocked lynch or the maybe 5% I'm willing to give to Toad being scum. Either way I am feeling town is fucked at this point, but might as well keep trying :-/ As for the newbie thing:
Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted?
If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider.
you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you.
If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more.
I guess i don't honestly have a good reason as to why i did not vote for SKrammen in the end.
Bad townie play? possibly. Even worse mafia play? i would believe so.
No lynch is amazing for scum day one, deprives town of almost all information, check out the team melee mini mafia and note that they all agree that they must lynch day 1, and the setup isn't too different.
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@All
Are there enough people on/will be on before the deadline to make a push for a lynch on chocolate instead? I know he was at least on the suspicion list of a number of people. Alternately, enough Toad/Drem people willing to switch to Skrammen to make that happen instead?
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Have to go very soon, I'll make sure I check in once before the deadline via phone to change votes if needed. I'd rather not lynch Drem if I can get one of my other choices on the list, so gogogogogo if you want another target. (Also, at least I won't give you shit about not lynching Toad as I think that is a scum-backed lynch)
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Well, as I said, I prefer it to Drem (not by a ton, but I do) although I obviously would have let that pass, and I am sure as hell not helping a vote on Toad pass. Momentum seemed to be in favor of lynching Toad over Drem, so I made my offer on the voting. I guess here goes nothing? Overall I still think we are pretty screwed, and almost definitely are if we hit green or blue with this one. Sorry Ciry, but I don't like our odds :-/
##unvote Drem903
##vote Chocolate
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EPT
