Newbie Mini Mafia - Page 2

Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning.

Well then, let's see what this means.

Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back.

So, who benefits from risk's death?
1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching.
2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum.
3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly.
4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him.
5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me.
6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched.

I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team.

So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +

However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following:
1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum
2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum
3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself
4) Explanations of why you think they are town
5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was

If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things.

This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry.

I don't see how toad telling people to be active even if they are blues is suspicious, it isn't like he said "dt's and medics should role-claim in the thread" or anything. He, like most of us, is simply trying to encourage activity from everyone. It also helps make it clear that you must contribute to scum-hunting as a blue if you don't want to be mistaken for scum yourself.

And just to call someone out a bit, I believe Skrammen has actually said the least of anyone so far, with a total contribution of:

He posts a reasonable amount, but mostly says very little, does no real analysis, and overall makes no contributions to town efforts. He also makes one posts indirectly defending inactivity:

Much more interesting than that though, is how often he asks people questions. Let's review every question he has directed at players in the thread.
A useless filler post that he could easily answer himself.

Again, not really looking for information from Toad, just checking to see if he is supposed to answer something.

Once again a filler post.

And that's it. He literally wants no information from his fellow players. How could that possibly be? Easy, he knows everything important because Hyshes is scum.

While I understand there may have been some confusion regarding the time, why didn't he make a post in the thread then? Also, why did he message the host about it? I think most townies would have posted their vote change, or at least their question, in the thread and hoped for the best. But perhaps he had a question about night actions that he wanted to ask the host as well so he just bundled it up with that, perhaps a question about role-blocking or killing. Or maybe because he is scum, he knew whether or not Skrammen is. If Skrammen is scum, no reason to change your vote and get your buddy killed. If he isn't scum, being the last person to last second change their vote to get a townie lynched would seem scummy as hell. Either way, best to keep quiet.

You know what makes it really difficult to give a reason for people being scum? Knowing that they aren't scum. Even when pressed repeatedly his best explanations are along the lines of "I thought it was obvious" and "it was the only explanation I could figure out".
I can figure out a ton of possible scenarios, why? Because I only know what is in this thread, unlike Hyshes.

His complete refusal to include Hackle to produce an alternative explanation compounds the problem. I think most townies can envision at least one scenario where Hackle nicely fits the role of the third scum that they can't seem to find otherwise.

Day 1 he votes for Zanfada. While I think some townies were genuinely suspicious of Zanfada, I also think scum saw his early vote and decided to use it to feed the idea that Zanfada is scummy, despite the fact that attention-getting, aggressive moves that start the initial conversations going are rarely how scum will start a game off. I also think scum was unlikely to pool their votes. If they all voted for Skrammen and he flipped green, they would be grouped together and absolutely fucked. Therefore I find it very likely that one of the votes for Zanfada was from scum. It is interesting to note that since day 2 started nobody has accused Zanfada of being scum, and he has even made several townie lists. I think this is clear evidence in scum involvement in throwing suspicion on him.

Possibly of note, the following people called some suspicion on Zanfada day 1: Drem, Chocolate, Skraamen, Hyshes, Xsksc, Bunneh.

Changing your vote to go with someone else that you think is scum and can get lynched can obviously be a townie move, however, I find it very interesting that he started with a vote for Toad. I think perhaps that scum had hoped to raise suspicion on Toad with the shooting of Risk, and this vote was an attempt to increase the pressure and suspicion on him. Upon seeing that isn't happening, he simply switches to Drem and leaves it at that. Again, this is possibly a null-read, but something to consider as well.