On September 24 2011 04:44 heist wrote: Oops didn't finish. For now my main suspicion is on ON. I'll provide reasoning later.
I think I'd be willing to get on board that lynch... He was on my list suspected scum after he and radfield were the only ones giving me crap and calling me scummy when I started tunneling radfield.
##Vote OriginalName (contingent upon the second half of this post not developing into something)
On September 24 2011 05:12 iGrok wrote: Oh and I found a Maia last night lol. Which means I found Saruman. But no way in hell am I telling you guys.
You're going to kill me.
How about this, we let iGrok tell us who to lynch. We lynch that person and when that person flips red, we let him live another day (no promises beyond that), or if that person flips not red, we vig/lynch him. I think at this point, it's worth risking a one-for-one for the chance at a free scum kill.
On a separate note, when you say "you're going to kill me," who are you talking to, iGrok? Town or Scum?
On September 24 2011 08:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: No, i just claimed Saruman.
wait, what? Explain, please. As far as I understand from the LotR lore, Saruman is was evil (well at least was certainly more evil than the dude that radfield flipped as).
On September 24 2011 05:47 heist wrote: So out of everyone in the Jackal lynch, let's look at ON in comparison to the two confirmed mafia: Radfield and Dr Helvetica
On September 17 2011 10:12 OriginalName wrote:
Step 3, avoid lynching an easy target. This is a player with a few bad posts, or some flip floppy votes, or a badly phrased 'scum slip'. Easy targets give scum great excuses to get on a bandwagon. Instead we're going to lynch someone who is fairly active, but not saying anything worthwhile. With 5 posts per cycle it means we're going to have something to go on, however likely not till the later half of Day 1. Which leads to:
I just want to point out how important this is before i read thread.
The original quote is by Radfield. His very first post is saying, "Good town post Radfield. Everyone should be listening to you."
On September 17 2011 11:10 OriginalName wrote:
On September 17 2011 10:29 chaoser wrote: OriginalName, what do you "sorta see" about greymist?
I sort of see why people are suspicous but it really boils down to a poor reaction to a really null tell (IE fishing for the ring as if you noted i fished for the wand in PYP2 and flipped town) I want to see how things develop first.
Greymist is sort of suspicious so don't worry about the people (one of whom is Dr Helvetica) who are voting for Greymist. They are justified, but I'm also staying really noncommittal in case this actually results in a lynch.
On September 18 2011 03:34 OriginalName wrote:
Furthermore, your reasoning for attacking Drazerk is a little troubling. So... if I understand correctly, DrH and Drazerk do the exact same thing, but one is a vet townie and one is scummy? Based purely on how you good you think they are? You also provide additional justification in saying he attacked you. He never attacked you, he called you out for claiming VT. I can believe you made a mistake, but your reactions so far to being challenged is one that I find highly suspicious.
Im 99% sure DrH is not doing the exact same thing as Drazerk to begin with...
Another indirect defense of Dr Helvetica. Didn't read it in context. He just saw DrH and came to his defense.
On September 19 2011 04:26 OriginalName wrote: Im not voting WBG, he reeks of the weird combination of my play in PTP2 and incogs play (althought not as strong) in PYPI.
Frankly I see Prpl as a decent lynch, but I see the reasoning behind Jackal at the same time.
This however seems kind of off to me,
i also want to tell sandroba and palmar that i have the eru-iluvatar-given ability to instantly kill them at my will if they don't start posting.
Basically hes soft claiming some sort of day vigilante, would you care to explain this better prpl?
Bluefishing. It's obviously a joke. More noncommittal attitudes on Jackal and prplhz. Great. What changes his mind?
On September 19 2011 04:39 OriginalName wrote:
On September 19 2011 04:37 prplhz wrote: @ON
is that the most blatant omgus i have ever seen?
Then your completely out of your fucking mind.
You claim ability to kill two random lurkers given by god.
Then laugh in my face.
This ridiculous exchange with prplhz that supposedly tips him over the fence. Nice excuse not to provide any analysis.
On September 20 2011 11:31 OriginalName wrote: Im going to focus on the people who stayed on bugs until the end of yesterday for my lynch targets today.
This is mostly based on most of them managing to lurk harder than me. Which saying alot I personally dont like the vibe i get off of iGrok/DrH. I avoided DrH yesterday because i was increadably unsure of WBG until later on and I decided based on the reasons i have stated to move over to Errandor.
Pyo I even forgot was playing until about he a few posts one of which was chastising my FoS on Navillus which i by the way look back on and realize that I was being an idiot.
His reasoning behind voting WBG basically went oh DrH said hes third party so im going to agree without posting my own contributions and uses this reasoning:
Throw on top of that the potential that he's full of shit or that we might learn something about the game set-up/mechanics, I'm perfectly happy to see him flip
Hes just adovacting a pure info lynch that really doesnt tell us jackshit in either case. Afterwords WBG then calls him out for the same thing I am he responds with this:
way to not read my post and selectively bolded not my reason for voting for you – getting information is only icing on the cake... I'm voting for you because your indirect 3rd party claim is bizarre and distracting at best
I dont see any bizarre third party claim, I see hints at it but it obviously wasnt what he had in mind. Sure he was trolling abit but this seems like a really weak line of reasoning, despite how we were starting to realize that he probably was not scum.
He also does nothing BUT push WBG almost refusing to otherwise consider other candidates other than call out Archo_Toilet for being scummier than GGQ who he was voting however he basically did one post and another paragraph later and did not pursue it much farther.
Along with that he has completely flown under the radar and iirc not many people have called him out.
if im on the wrong track again for the love of god speak now.
His main analysis day 2 is on the one person attacking Radfield and his main reasoning is pyo's vote on WBG, null tells considering every lynch was on a townie. And who is the only one who agrees with him on his accusation? Radfield.
On September 22 2011 06:39 Radfield wrote:
On September 22 2011 06:06 OriginalName wrote: Im down for lynching one of those two but I havent decided which one I want to move to yet.
I still think Pyo is a decent lynch but I agree that vote spreading can be detremental at this point.
Radfield purely out of curiousity why Jackal over Palmar?
I'm more sure of Jackal than Palmar. Jackal has done nothing this game but antagonize and cut players down, yet has no reads at all of those people. Palmar is on the short list, but I see no reason to put a bunch of reads out and let mafia cherry pick the lynch.
On September 22 2011 07:12 OriginalName wrote: Im voting jackal. Not much more to say I could write a huge massive wall of text that you guys wont read anyways but I feel like actually enjoying RL.
Jist of it is:
Meh D1 with shitty excuses Some random contradition about 95% of the time he has shit reads on D1 and then swears on his grave that it was a good read, then turns out to be a shit read.
Im just going to point out my opinion on WBG, yes he trolled the shit out of us for 24-36 hours but the last few hours he just seemed townie to me.
lastly now that we have lots of pressure on him he just uses shitty one liners to defend himself.
##Vote Jackal58
He clearly follows Radfield's lead for his final vote.
##Vote: Original_Name
Yeah and Pyo just voted him with little analysis, on top of that I also did that BEFORE he accused Radfield and just because he coincedentally decided to vote for scum he did not attempt to push him at all.One Vote without reasoning means almost jackshit to anyone actually reading the thread.
On September 21 2011 01:05 Radfield wrote: iGrok is a good lynch today. He has been useless, but not in a useless way. In a way that makes it look like he's trying to not be useless.
GGQ, Vain, ON, Heist, Pyo: All of you need to ramp it up. Between Jackal, iGrok and Palmar, where would you place your vote?
you aren't the boss of me... I don't like the fact that you're telling me that I have to vote for one of those 3. You followed/led the lynch of Erandorr and no one really gave you any shit for it.
In fact you tried to spin WBG and errador both flipping town as an indicator of your townness:
On September 20 2011 08:58 Radfield wrote: This means we derive very little from the day 1 lynch, as both Prp, WBG and Eradorr were town. With three townie wagons it means scum had everywhere to hide. In my opinion this makes those players staying on the WBG wagon look worst, and anyone switching votes around look more town. Mafia had no reason to flutter their votes, so I doubt they would have done so unneccesarily.
I mean the other 2 lynch targets you were trying to distract from were both either killed or attempted to be killed which means scum wanted everyone to see them flip. This seems a little too convenient to me...
The analysis of you independent of this fact isn't great either: You started with a day 1 policy post, wherein you say, "Step 3, avoid lynching an easy target," but then proceed to push for the Erandorr lynch... if there was ever an "easier" target than a guy who edits a post then lies about it, I haven't seen it.
Then you engage DrH about confirmed townies (link) which just screams contrived nonsensical conversation to me... Confirmed townies are NOT "a voice that every town player can trust to be legit." Townies can be wrong and scum are more than happy to help propagate incorrect statements by trusted town - not to mention what happens when a scum gets on people's confirmed town list.
Now you're basically leading the charge against Jackal and iGrok while calling out Drazerk, Palmar and ON as also being likely scum... So either you're some super brilliant player (except that you were totally off with Erandorr) or you're happily sheeping town around. It really doesn't sit well with me. At this point I'm more inclined to vote for you than any of the 3 you suggest (jackal, igrok, palmar).
##vote: radfield
So that doesn't count as analysis? Sigh, I guess I'll try harder...
In any case, you accusing me of being scum isn't why I suspected you of being scum, but rather that you and radfield were agreeing with each other. HOWEVER, after re-reading things, I've convinced myself that it doesn't make sense for two scum to both jump on some random person by themselves, not to mention the fact that you – not radfield – were the one to first jump on me. That heist is using this connection to accuse you (and the timing of bringing it up) is actually quite scummy – not totally sure on that read though.
##unvote
I want to hear from iGrok who saruman is. Personally, I would rather lynch that person and then kill him if that person doesn't flip red. However, the fact that iGrok still hasn't given us a name makes me think that him "finding saruman" was a bluff to try to get us to back off him or a bluff to try to get a saruman slip so he can kill/confirm them tonight. Either way, I don't think we should lynch him today. If he's really a survivor 3rd party, he really isn't a threat to us. If he's scum giving us the run-around, well he can't possibly be the only scum left, so I'd rather try to figure out who they are.
On September 24 2011 10:18 iGrok wrote: Heist hit the nail on the head.
When picking a target last night, I had to think to myself: who could Saruman be?
To me, the only two people who fit the description were ON and Pyo. Not too active, not too inactive, but definitely capable of playing above their current level.
I picked ON.
I'm also going to need to know who to shoot tonight. There's no way scum lets me live again tonight if I still have a shot.
This made me reread things (again), and I'm changing my mind again.
As I said before, it doesn't make sense that 2 scum would both jump on the same person when there were already several town lynch targets (+1 town). That was enough to convince me before, but that's really the only reason I could come up with for why he was town, while the reasons why he's scum a numerous...
There's this post where he's the only one in the thread who knew who ugluk was:
On September 24 2011 05:12 iGrok wrote: Oh and I found a Maia last night lol. Which means I found Saruman. But no way in hell am I telling you guys.
You're going to kill me.
How about this, we let iGrok tell us who to lynch. We lynch that person and when that person flips red, we let him live another day (no promises beyond that), or if that person flips not red, we vig/lynch him. I think at this point, it's worth risking a one-for-one for the chance at a free scum kill.
On a separate note, when you say "you're going to kill me," who are you talking to, iGrok? Town or Scum?
This is shitty logic, we dont know how many scum nor do we know KP values. They could have extra KP or SK might have a one shot or a bunch of other variables. Not increadably safe imo, iGrok still good lynch.
Also i fully fess up to being stupid and following Radfield but at the time i still had an inkling of thought that he was town. After the Jackal lynch I did go back and was getting ready to push him but well he died.
EBWOP: I meant that we could be at LYLO. On top of that WHY WOULD WE ALLOW OUR MOST SUSPECTED PERSON TO CONTROL LYNCH?
(+1 scum)
Then here he says I didn't push for radfield at all:
On September 24 2011 05:47 heist wrote: So out of everyone in the Jackal lynch, let's look at ON in comparison to the two confirmed mafia: Radfield and Dr Helvetica
On September 17 2011 10:12 OriginalName wrote:
Step 3, avoid lynching an easy target. This is a player with a few bad posts, or some flip floppy votes, or a badly phrased 'scum slip'. Easy targets give scum great excuses to get on a bandwagon. Instead we're going to lynch someone who is fairly active, but not saying anything worthwhile. With 5 posts per cycle it means we're going to have something to go on, however likely not till the later half of Day 1. Which leads to:
I just want to point out how important this is before i read thread.
The original quote is by Radfield. His very first post is saying, "Good town post Radfield. Everyone should be listening to you."
On September 17 2011 11:10 OriginalName wrote:
On September 17 2011 10:29 chaoser wrote: OriginalName, what do you "sorta see" about greymist?
I sort of see why people are suspicous but it really boils down to a poor reaction to a really null tell (IE fishing for the ring as if you noted i fished for the wand in PYP2 and flipped town) I want to see how things develop first.
Greymist is sort of suspicious so don't worry about the people (one of whom is Dr Helvetica) who are voting for Greymist. They are justified, but I'm also staying really noncommittal in case this actually results in a lynch.
On September 18 2011 03:34 OriginalName wrote:
Furthermore, your reasoning for attacking Drazerk is a little troubling. So... if I understand correctly, DrH and Drazerk do the exact same thing, but one is a vet townie and one is scummy? Based purely on how you good you think they are? You also provide additional justification in saying he attacked you. He never attacked you, he called you out for claiming VT. I can believe you made a mistake, but your reactions so far to being challenged is one that I find highly suspicious.
Im 99% sure DrH is not doing the exact same thing as Drazerk to begin with...
Another indirect defense of Dr Helvetica. Didn't read it in context. He just saw DrH and came to his defense.
On September 19 2011 04:26 OriginalName wrote: Im not voting WBG, he reeks of the weird combination of my play in PTP2 and incogs play (althought not as strong) in PYPI.
Frankly I see Prpl as a decent lynch, but I see the reasoning behind Jackal at the same time.
This however seems kind of off to me,
i also want to tell sandroba and palmar that i have the eru-iluvatar-given ability to instantly kill them at my will if they don't start posting.
Basically hes soft claiming some sort of day vigilante, would you care to explain this better prpl?
Bluefishing. It's obviously a joke. More noncommittal attitudes on Jackal and prplhz. Great. What changes his mind?
On September 19 2011 04:39 OriginalName wrote:
On September 19 2011 04:37 prplhz wrote: @ON
is that the most blatant omgus i have ever seen?
Then your completely out of your fucking mind.
You claim ability to kill two random lurkers given by god.
Then laugh in my face.
This ridiculous exchange with prplhz that supposedly tips him over the fence. Nice excuse not to provide any analysis.
On September 20 2011 11:31 OriginalName wrote: Im going to focus on the people who stayed on bugs until the end of yesterday for my lynch targets today.
This is mostly based on most of them managing to lurk harder than me. Which saying alot I personally dont like the vibe i get off of iGrok/DrH. I avoided DrH yesterday because i was increadably unsure of WBG until later on and I decided based on the reasons i have stated to move over to Errandor.
Pyo I even forgot was playing until about he a few posts one of which was chastising my FoS on Navillus which i by the way look back on and realize that I was being an idiot.
His reasoning behind voting WBG basically went oh DrH said hes third party so im going to agree without posting my own contributions and uses this reasoning:
Throw on top of that the potential that he's full of shit or that we might learn something about the game set-up/mechanics, I'm perfectly happy to see him flip
Hes just adovacting a pure info lynch that really doesnt tell us jackshit in either case. Afterwords WBG then calls him out for the same thing I am he responds with this:
way to not read my post and selectively bolded not my reason for voting for you – getting information is only icing on the cake... I'm voting for you because your indirect 3rd party claim is bizarre and distracting at best
I dont see any bizarre third party claim, I see hints at it but it obviously wasnt what he had in mind. Sure he was trolling abit but this seems like a really weak line of reasoning, despite how we were starting to realize that he probably was not scum.
He also does nothing BUT push WBG almost refusing to otherwise consider other candidates other than call out Archo_Toilet for being scummier than GGQ who he was voting however he basically did one post and another paragraph later and did not pursue it much farther.
Along with that he has completely flown under the radar and iirc not many people have called him out.
if im on the wrong track again for the love of god speak now.
His main analysis day 2 is on the one person attacking Radfield and his main reasoning is pyo's vote on WBG, null tells considering every lynch was on a townie. And who is the only one who agrees with him on his accusation? Radfield.
On September 22 2011 06:39 Radfield wrote:
On September 22 2011 06:06 OriginalName wrote: Im down for lynching one of those two but I havent decided which one I want to move to yet.
I still think Pyo is a decent lynch but I agree that vote spreading can be detremental at this point.
Radfield purely out of curiousity why Jackal over Palmar?
I'm more sure of Jackal than Palmar. Jackal has done nothing this game but antagonize and cut players down, yet has no reads at all of those people. Palmar is on the short list, but I see no reason to put a bunch of reads out and let mafia cherry pick the lynch.
On September 22 2011 07:12 OriginalName wrote: Im voting jackal. Not much more to say I could write a huge massive wall of text that you guys wont read anyways but I feel like actually enjoying RL.
Jist of it is:
Meh D1 with shitty excuses Some random contradition about 95% of the time he has shit reads on D1 and then swears on his grave that it was a good read, then turns out to be a shit read.
Im just going to point out my opinion on WBG, yes he trolled the shit out of us for 24-36 hours but the last few hours he just seemed townie to me.
lastly now that we have lots of pressure on him he just uses shitty one liners to defend himself.
##Vote Jackal58
He clearly follows Radfield's lead for his final vote.
##Vote: Original_Name
Yeah and Pyo just voted him with little analysis, on top of that I also did that BEFORE he accused Radfield and just because he coincedentally decided to vote for scum he did not attempt to push him at all.One Vote without reasoning means almost jackshit to anyone actually reading the thread.
while saying that I was doing "nothing BUT push WBG almost refusing to otherwise consider other candidates":
On September 20 2011 11:31 OriginalName wrote: Im going to focus on the people who stayed on bugs until the end of yesterday for my lynch targets today.
This is mostly based on most of them managing to lurk harder than me. Which saying alot I personally dont like the vibe i get off of iGrok/DrH. I avoided DrH yesterday because i was increadably unsure of WBG until later on and I decided based on the reasons i have stated to move over to Errandor.
Pyo I even forgot was playing until about he a few posts one of which was chastising my FoS on Navillus which i by the way look back on and realize that I was being an idiot.
His reasoning behind voting WBG basically went oh DrH said hes third party so im going to agree without posting my own contributions and uses this reasoning:
Throw on top of that the potential that he's full of shit or that we might learn something about the game set-up/mechanics, I'm perfectly happy to see him flip
Hes just adovacting a pure info lynch that really doesnt tell us jackshit in either case. Afterwords WBG then calls him out for the same thing I am he responds with this:
way to not read my post and selectively bolded not my reason for voting for you – getting information is only icing on the cake... I'm voting for you because your indirect 3rd party claim is bizarre and distracting at best
I dont see any bizarre third party claim, I see hints at it but it obviously wasnt what he had in mind. Sure he was trolling abit but this seems like a really weak line of reasoning, despite how we were starting to realize that he probably was not scum.
He also does nothing BUT push WBG almost refusing to otherwise consider other candidates other than call out Archo_Toilet for being scummier than GGQ who he was voting however he basically did one post and another paragraph later and did not pursue it much farther.
Along with that he has completely flown under the radar and iirc not many people have called him out.
if im on the wrong track again for the love of god speak now.
He's clearly had an agenda here, as all I did for WBG was put a vote on him and disappear for the rest of the day, while I actually did give a solid reason for radfield repeated called him scum. (+1 scum)
Also in that previous quote:
On September 20 2011 11:31 OriginalName wrote: Along with that he has completely flown under the radar and iirc not many people have called him out.
On September 24 2011 10:18 iGrok wrote: Heist hit the nail on the head.
When picking a target last night, I had to think to myself: who could Saruman be?
To me, the only two people who fit the description were ON and Pyo. Not too active, not too inactive, but definitely capable of playing above their current level.
I picked ON.
I'm also going to need to know who to shoot tonight. There's no way scum lets me live again tonight if I still have a shot.
Kill this lying bastard.
I am Èowyn the Shieldmaiden of Rohan.
Completely Vanilla.
I'm gonna have to call bullshit on this one. There's no way the chick that killed the big bad-ass Nazgul would be vanilla town. Totally fail claim dude (+10 scum):
On September 19 2011 08:45 iGrok wrote: Ok, lets review. Who of the following are the scummiest?
Palmar - Not doing much so far Radfield - Has been active. Pulled wagons off GreyMist and WBG, onto Errandor. Suspicious. Syllogism - Was active early on in Ring discussions. prplhz - Leaving this until later kitaman27 - No great analysis, but decent reasons for voting and has worked to pressure OriginalName - After watching him play in Resurrection, he's playing the same way. Minimum contribution to avoid focus. Vain - 1 liners except to defend prplhz Erandorr - somehow appeared on his own vote list? TranceStorm - I see a connection between TranceStorm and Radfield forming when I filter him. TS often references Radfield's arguements. TS also attacked prplhz early on
On September 21 2011 05:07 syllogism wrote: I'm off, iGrok you better have defended yourself by the time I come back tomorrow. Perhaps even claim.
I've been thinking about this. And I think it is, in fact, time for me to claim.
So, as my meta, this is my incredibly huge post.
Ok, I've come under a lot of fire lately for lurking. And it's true, I have been. But trying to use meta arguments (other than lack of a monster post, which is never on D1 anyways) on me is stupid - I dare you to find two games in which I've played similar styles as similar roles. And in this game, I'm a role I've never been before.
I am the Balrog.
I am a Survivor.
I have a number of powers, but I'll start with my wincon: I win when any faction wins and Gandalf is dead. So, the second part of my wincon has been conveniently fulfilled. Gandalf probably wasn't supposed to die this early - I've got a few powers that would have aided me in my quest for Gandalf.
I can investigate a player each night and discover if they are Maia. Gandalf, Saruman, Sauron, and Radagast are Maia (I am told these 4 names - more on this after my full claim).
I have one unblockable nightkill.
But that only helps me kill Gandalf. I still need to survive. Fortunately, I have a passive power:
I know what happens when I get the ring. I become Bulletproof.
I'll take a quick breather to let you all think about everything I've just said. When you're ready, scroll down.
It's time for my favorite! Setup Analysis time! In a closed setup, its difficult - but as a 3rd party role, and with all the recent flips, I think I can figure a few things out.
I'll start with my role, as it is the most complicated. Survivors suck. You have to somehow survive to endgame, against a mafia team who doesn't know not to kill you. So you have to be as non-threatening as possible, while avoiding lynch. This leads you to lurk hardcore. This is no fun.
But my role is a little different. I have a goal, and tools at my disposal. And I think I've figured out how Curu intended for Balrog to be played - Investigate people, when you find a Maia, use the thread to figure out what kind. Then get them lynched. Use the oneshot to get the ring once it pops up somewhere, and then go into heavy pro-town action to win the game.
With the death of Gandalf though, I can change things up a bit. After all, it's in my best interest to survive. And for me, the choice seems clear: Get the ring.
With this in mind, I have a proposal for the town. 2 Maia have died (Gandalf and Sauron). One, maybe two are left. Saruman definitely, lets be honest he's going to be in here. He's kind of a big deal in LotR. Radagast on the other hand...+ Show Spoiler +
If he's in the game, he's probably a miller or traitor with some sort of bonus power. He was a good guy who aided Saruman in Lotr lore. He's pretty obscure though, so idk if he's in the game.
Anyways, my proposal - give me the ring, and I'll trade you an unblockable KP, Saruman checks, and I'll actually contribute useful analysis. Who decides on the KP? Well, if you're a DT I'll give it to you - when you check me you'll get my role PM, If you want to use my power, post the first word in the name of my Checking ability in one of your posts. I'll use it on the next name that appears in your post. Also, I'll check whoever got the second-most votes each night to see if they are Saruman or Radagast.
Why should you trust me? Because this forces me to act pro-town. I'm basically saying, I'm 3rd party but with your help I can be a Bullet-proof Vigilante. Think about that. If I get the ring, I can still be lynched - so if I don't hold up my end, you can lynch me.
So thats the deal. I want to win. Give me the ring, and I hunt the other White Wizard, while scumhunting the best I can. As a sign of good faith, I'll include an analysis later on, and I'll tell you that Radfield is neither Saruman nor Radagast (I thought he might be Gandalf).
On to the rest of the analysis, what little I can do. Take it or leave it, but I've been known to perfectly guess setups before. I won't attempt to do so, but lets see...
First, look at Gandalf's Powers. He's called a Jack of all Trades, but he's not actually that strong. He has 4 powers, but he can't even combine them. Gandalf is supposed to be the strongest damn being in the lotr universe. But he's a purely information role.
In contrast, Sauron's Role: He, too, has investigative powers. He also has an unblockable kill, AND is godfather. Sauron just seems like a more powerful role than Gandalf. But what can we take from this?
Mafia seem to be pretty heavily loaded. Supporting this are the existence of a Jailkeeper and Messenger - Messengers are awesome for confirming players, and Jailkeepers are excellent on offense or defense against mafia.
So, with heavily loaded mafia AND at least one 3rd party, Town has to have some serious firepower and/or protection. I expect Aragorn to have KP (Curu if you make him and Legolas Trackers I will not forgive you - and if GIMLI doesn't have kp... They're the fucking heroes!) I don't forsee there being more than two medics (Eowyn and Galadriel are my guesses), but combined with a Jailkeeper and a vet or two we're starting to talk about some high-power games.
My final note about setup: Pippin (Peregrin Took). The existence of pm-oriented roles is cool, and I highly doubt there's just one. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Merry was a clone of Pippin's role.
So now its time for some sample analysis.
And my focus today is Palmar.
On September 18 2011 08:24 Palmar wrote: hey guys, I'm in a good mood so I'm not gonna ruin it by reading the thread. See you tomorrow
This was his first post. Nothing scummy here, but it sets the mood for everything else he posts.
Now, here's a list of his opinions since then. Radfield, WBG,Errandor prplhz DrH Radfield, himself, Sandroba, Pyo
Pause. Next post.
On September 20 2011 19:05 Palmar wrote:
On September 20 2011 19:02 Palmar wrote:
On September 20 2011 19:02 Palmar wrote: prplhz should probably give the ring away to his strongest townread. I'd go with one of Radfield, Sandroba, myself and pyo.
Derp... prplhz said he doesn't actually have the ring.
In any case, if you're lying, you should consider giving it away.
btw, Sandroba is almost definitely town, but only if he takes his vote off me. I'm basically confirmed town from my exchanges with DrH, but only people like sandroba/syllo etc will see it.
We need to keep an eye on syllo... yarly.
chaoser is also very likely town. I don't like the smell of iGrok and Kita...
Here, minimal interaction with DrH is played off as enough to auto-confirm him. This post sets off alarm bells in my head. Palmar contributed 4 posts before DrH died, 2 of which were "Herp I'm not reading the thread" (He was obviously reading the thread). Its his fourth post that interests me: "DrH is giving me really bad vibes." At the time, it looked like just another throwaway post. But post DrH's death, this post looks more like DrH new he was going to be modkilled and Palmar jumped out early to get a townie point.
For the rest of the game, two things are going on. He puts faith in Radfield, and he continues to stress Sandroba town. (yes theres other shit but those're the important parts)
Palmar already feels scummy. So lets continue on that assumption, and introduce possibilities. 1)Radfield and Sandroba are both town. If this is true, then Palmar is trying to gain town cred when they flip. With sandroba acting scummy and a possible lynch, and Radfield a good mafia target, thats two points for him. Fits with calling DrH scum. 2)Radfield is town, Sandroba is scum. This is using Radfield's town cred to make Sandroba look better. Even those who don't trust Palmar will subliminally put them on closer levels. If sandroba didn't look so damn scummy, it might work. 3)Radfield is scum, Sandroba is town. I just... don't see this as possible. 4)Both are scum. I don't know what this would mean actually
Alright guys, well you've heard me out. Give me the ring, and I'll start working a hell of a lot harder this game, hunt down Saruman, and give a DT an unblockable shot. Otherwise, I'll basically keep doing what I've done so far. Your move.
On September 24 2011 05:12 iGrok wrote: Oh and I found a Maia last night lol. Which means I found Saruman. But no way in hell am I telling you guys.
You're going to kill me.
Why would a townie withold a claim in this manner. Seriously, stop tunneling my ass and read and realize that this dude is a class A bullshitter with a PhD in Lying. Except, he failed that last class ya know.
Get to your senses Pyo, or are you scum along with him, I honestly wouldnt be surprised if Radfield had the balls to implicate a lurking scumbuddy for town cred if he got pushed to death. Hell look what he did with DrH.
The fact that you think iGrok is not the scummiest man alive in this game at the moment is a monumental blunder on your part and may only be solved by stating that your wishy washiness is almost scum motivated.
His behavior is consistent with 3rd party (so I suppose you could call it scummy); your behavior is consistent with mafia. His claim is at least believable; your claim seems super hasty... You just quickly copy-pasted your safe claim without thinking it through. I'll repeat, there's no way the chick that shoved a sword through the Nazgul's face is just vanilla town.
But I'll tell you what, if you flip green, I'll vote for iGrok tomorrow... if he isn't offed during the night.
Signup list not getting updated and not showing roles is getting annoying... just posting this so I can look back at it for reference:
Signup List (Day 3)
1. syllogism, Aragorn (Jack of all Trades) was annihilated in wrath night 2. 2. xtfftc, Imrahil (Vanilla Town), was wiped from existence day 2. 3. Jackal58, Radagast (Vanilla Town, Miller), was lynched day 2. 4. jcarlsoniv 5. kitaman27 6. GGQ 7. wherebugsgo, Denethor (Vanilla Town, Miller), had his throat slit night 1. 8. DoctorHelvetica, Sauron (Mafia Godfather), was wiped from existence day 2. 9. Erandorr, Gwaihir (Jailkeeper), was lynched day 1. 10. Palmar 11. supersoft 12. Vain, Haldir (Vanilla Town, Nosy Neighbor), was modkilled night 2. 13. JeeJee, Glorfindel (Vanilla Town, Nosy Neighbor) was crushed by the vote count day 2. 14. Mr. Wiggles, Pippin (Messenger), was stabbed through the chest night 1. 15. GreYMisT 16. raynpelikoneet 17. OriginalName 18. Navillus, Elladan (Vanilla Town), was wiped from existence day 2. 19. chaos13, Gandalf (Jack of all Trades), was wiped from existence day 2. 20. Archon_Toilet 21. prplhz 22. Cyber_Cheese 23. chaoser 24. sandroba, Legolas (Vigilante) was strangled night 2. 25. Ciryandor, Sam (Mason Bodyguard), was put to the sword night 1. 26. iGrok 27. heist 28. Drazerk 29. Radfield, Wormtongue (Mafia Messenger) was put to the sword night 2. 30. TranceStorm 31. Pyo
I don't care that iGrok flipped scum... ON is still scum. As far as I'm concerned, iGrok named him as a way "confirm" another scum as town since his lynch was a fargone conclusion.
On September 26 2011 08:42 Pyo wrote: ON is scum...
##vote: OriginalName
Why? At least now you need to give something other than "X is scum".
I've already given plenty of reasons in my previous posts, nothing has changed since my belief that he was scum was independent of iGrok saying he was Sauruman. In fact, the fact that iGrok would finger him after his lynch was a done deal feels like an effort to establish town cred for ON.
All this nonsense about whether Drazerk really protected someone or not feels like a distraction. Same with lending any weight to the cryptic messages. "JCARL IS UGLUK" was a lie, so trusting this new message seems silly, not to mention, how would scum know that there's another scum team, in fact, how would anyone know?
So let's get back on track of finding someone to actually lynch:
On September 26 2011 18:59 Archon_Toilet wrote: OriginalName was pretty clearly the mafia's alternative bandwagon to iGrok. I'm pretty comfortable with him being a townie.
Meh, this is WIFOM at best. The way I saw it, ON being named by iGrok meant that he likely really is scum, probably even Saruman. At the time he made the claim, out of 17 total votes there were:
iGrok - 9 Palmar - 2 OriginalName - 2
If I were mafia, I would totally name Saruman in that situation. If the accusation got ignored and iGrok was lynched anyway, Saruman would gain a shit ton of town cred for being accused by scum, while if the bandwagon really did form, then iGrok's nonsense would have been "confirmed." Either way, scum gain a "confirmed not mafia" status for one of them.
This was part of the reason why I was so inclined to believe iGrok in the first place. I mean it was radfield who was the first to really cast doubt on iGrok in the first place. To me this screams that iGrok was meant to flip, so as far as I'm concerned anything that we'd normally interpret from iGrok's lynch is probably the opposite of what we'd normally learn. In this case, it means that OriginalName really is scum.
Also for what it's worth, supersoft voted for iGrok and flipped town, and I can assure you that I'm town. Dunno about heist or cheese, but just because we didn't bandwagon on iGrok doesn't mean we're scum.
----------------------------------------------
Now I don't know if I'm gonna be able to convince anyone of OriginalName being scum at this point, so I'll try to make a case for one of the other likely scum: GGQ
If we look at DrH, radfield, and even iGrok, one thing that you'll notice is their exceptionally high level of activity and thread presence (in the case of iGrok, I'm referring to how he stood out with regard to his claim rather than his actual thread activity). This strikes me as somewhat odd for a scum team, which leads me to believe that the remaining scum have been and are actively lurking in the thread. The first name that comes to mind in this regard is GGQ.
So what has GGQ done this game? 1. said iGrok was scum (but given radfield was also doing the same, it's a null read) 2. then responds when radfield asks iGrok to kill GGQ in the thread (the scum conversations in this game so far are really weird, yall should check them out, lol) 3. calls out chaosers weird claim 4. questions why heist started accusing ON 5. says that everyone who tried to save iGrok yesterday is scum
So what's so weird about that? Well aside from it not being a whole lot, there's the fact that aside from iGrok, he's never really taken a stand against anyone else at all in the game. He's barely given any analysis either. That in and of itself should scream that he could be scum, but let's throw on some meta as well...
The last time I played a game with GGQ (mafia XL), first of all he was infinitely more helpful to town, and second, he was double hit night 1 by an iGrok(GF)-led scum team. GGQ's town meta was so strong that iGrok made sure he died night 1 - pretty ridiculous eh? Well in this game, despite GGQ's correct identification of iGrok as scum on day 1, he's still alive and kicking. Kind of weird, right?
A lot of that is WIFOM and/or meta, which isn't the most reliable, but the fact that there really isn't anything else to go on in terms of deciding whether he's town or not is a pretty significant concern in and of itself. GGQ is really strong player, why isn't he contributing more?
TLDNR: I still think ON is scum, but I'm highly suspicious of GGQ as well.
On September 26 2011 23:44 Palmar wrote: I think scenario 1 is quite likely.
Palmar is probably town, but the bulletproof vigilante thing is way too op with all the power roles that flipped.
Lol, what the shit you dumbass, can't you see that they're really two SK's who figured each other out, then the bastard mod allowed them to PM each other.
Not a fucking chance you moron, is your theory really based on assuming the mod is a bastard mod? What the hell?
I don't even know why we're discussing this, ON or Kita should be up for scrutinity.
But what if they're both mafia?
I know it seems like a stretch seeing as Palmar's been pushing for iGrok's lynch since day 2, shouting at people they're morons for not voting him.
but maybe it's an elaborate plan.
You're a fucking moron. It's seems like it's a stretch because IT IS a stretch.
Can we just drop the issue now? Chaoser isn't killing town at the moment, and Palmar has actually gotten a mafia lynched, that's more than rest of the players in the game can say. Occam's razor says Kita is mafia, ON feels quite scummy and I'm pretty sure Pyo is not scum, so even if somewhat flawed his argument is legit.
Shut up, I'm now ignoring everything you say.
ditto.
Palmar, are you claiming Gollum or just pulling a WBG retard-a-palooza? If you are claiming, why are you doing it? You have the ring now so you don't give a fuck anymore?
On September 27 2011 01:11 Drazerk wrote: ##vote: Palmar
We're not letting another scum claim third party and troll their way to victory.
How does this even make sense...He didn't claim third party and why would mafia so such a thing, much less by someone that pretty much led the iGrok lynch and has almost 0 suspicions on him.
On September 27 2011 03:09 Archon_Toilet wrote: Pretty sure heist needs to go.
He called out DrH as a terrible lynch on day 1, defended Drazerk to the death then voted for him, called out iGrok as a terrible lynch, was on the original name train.
Low activity, atrocious voting, defends scum then disappears. Heist needs to go. Vote for heist.
Low activity and atrocious voting? Sounds much like someone I know... That is the very first time you have mentioned heist all game.
I voted iGrok 2 nights out of 3. That's better than your record mate.
It is the first time iv mentioned heist, so? I think he's mafia.
Scum were bussing iGrok from even before day 2 (filter radfield or see my earlier posts). Voting for iGrok should give you absolutely NO town cred. Stop using it as such.
On September 27 2011 03:09 Archon_Toilet wrote: Pretty sure heist needs to go.
He called out DrH as a terrible lynch on day 1, defended Drazerk to the death then voted for him, called out iGrok as a terrible lynch, was on the original name train.
Low activity, atrocious voting, defends scum then disappears. Heist needs to go. Vote for heist.
All game long you've been randomly chiming in, each time with a new scum target, and each time giving a really shitty nonsensical reason for thinking that person was scum. Are you a Kurumi smurf?
On September 27 2011 01:11 Drazerk wrote: ##vote: Palmar
We're not letting another scum claim third party and troll their way to victory.
How does this even make sense...He didn't claim third party and why would mafia so such a thing, much less by someone that pretty much led the iGrok lynch and has almost 0 suspicions on him.
Filter him... he's been faking gollum since day 1
So you're saying he's been bussing almost every single one of his teammate since day one? He was literally the first one to call out bullshit on iGrok and he mentions DrH as scummy way before anyone else.
That is well within Palmar's meta. Not saying that that means Palmar is scum, just that him bussing his whole team day 1 would be very "Palmar."
---------------------------------------- Drazerk is a really weird case and I'm not sure he's scum (based largely on meta). In every game I've played with him, he's been kind of an idiot (no offense), doing and saying all sorts of silly nonsensical things. And every time, the stupid shit he does has been done with good intentions but has been horribly short-sighted and poorly thought through. Too bad town's not going to let this one fly since they're all a bunch of sheep. Do you all realize that Scum have decided all 3 lynches so far, including iGrok? Remember Erandorr? He was an idiot that lied about editing his post – before you get all your pitch-forks out, use your heads for a second.
Palmar, raynpelikoneet, you both said you agreed with my analysis on ON, yet your votes don't seem to agree with it. What's up with that? You guys just want to say that agreed with it in case he's vigi'd, but don't want to lend weight to the lynch?
EPT
