EPTWhats the *worst* that can happen?
Some Mafia Game
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
Whats the *worst* that can happen? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 03 2011 02:22 Hesmyrr wrote: /in I am? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/iXdzg.jpg) Lets just say I'm here to punish sinners. Let none stand against me, lest they be cast into a lake of eternal fire. Amen. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
iGrok Ah, random voting, the most useless way to possibly kick a game off. Arguing about lurkers is better than this. Seriously, does anyone feel threatened at all with 1/9 votes? Any risk of death? Now, iGrok, lets talk about him shall we On September 08 2011 02:59 iGrok wrote: I consider that a valid reason to vote. With no setup knowledge other than my own role, I'm a little on edge anyways. This jumps out at me, this is so... unnecessarily defensive, I don't think I've ever been "on edge" when rolling town. I mean as town I don't really care that much if I die or if a couple of idiots vote for me, its almost par for the course. I generally don't even acknowledge the first votes thrown at me, nor do most town, as we know we are innocent. We certainly have nothing to fear, why then is iGrok scared and on edge? What motivation is there for this "edginess", from a town perspective? None, at least none that I can see. Lets compare this "edginess" with what iGrok usually does as town. From XLIV, his first post upon replacing On August 25 2011 10:19 iGrok wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/4JR0G.png) Doesn't seem that on edge to me, no real nervousnessor attempts at justification, just "this is what I think, deal with it!" There is not "oh no, I better avoid people tunneling me, what are people going to think of me" namely there is not fear no emotional undercurrent that suggests iGrok might be hiding something, even though there is a bit of doubt its not the prominent part of the post, its not dominating it, unlike the majority of his posts here. This post right here gives a similar emotional vibe to the first quote I posted, namely fear and discomfort On September 08 2011 11:20 iGrok wrote: This is trying hard to justify it? Look, if you want to tunnel someone, that's fine. Just pick someone else to fight with. Can no one else smell the tinge of fear from this post? Note that this desire to avoid the spotlight, this deep fear isn't present in his play as town in mafia XLIV, where he was not at all afraid to be a nexus of attention. Notice he *really* doesn't want to be tunneled, he wants to be away from the spotlight Compare the above "oh don't tunnel me" to iGrok's response to being called scum by wherebugsgo in XLIV On August 27 2011 13:26 iGrok wrote: @WBG: You still think I'm mafia? After I started the vote for Mig, shot down attempts to split votes between Mig and BB, and... well I haven't told you why Kurumi is scum yet. I've got to think about when to release that, I'm not sure if it'd be better far in advance or right before daypost. Notice the absolute lack of fear in fact there is a bit of arrogance in the post, that is the attitude of a town player. Fear and anger are what I see in iGrok's posts so far this game, not a tinge of arrogance or that "deal with it" tone from mafia XLIV. Its interesting that iGrok apparently notices this change (probably informed by his team) and drops back to an arrogant tone with things like On September 08 2011 11:21 iGrok wrote: Oh, and I'll give my opinions on people when I'm damn well ready. Which is a magnificent change, but far too late, and still out of character. The major sticking point of this in my mind is that while iGrok was arrogant in XLIV, his arrogance was always *useful*, while he did post with some arrogance and willfulness it was never stuff like "we'll I don't feel like helping right now", generally he didn't shut down avenues of conversation like this, arrogance was also one of his major sticking points in mafia XL, where he was the mafia godfather, and he took an "everyone but me sucks" approach to the game, which got him lynched day 2, this looks like a lapse into similar behavior. What motivation does a townie have for refusing to give his reads? This evidence is pretty damning. iGrok's fear and doubt have become his undoing, iGrok is almost certainly scum. ##Vote: iGrok + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/iCJXN.gif) | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
Let his days be few; and let another take his office Amen | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 08 2011 19:06 Palmar wrote: Actually, I still like chaos13 as scum. I don't think iGrok is scum, he wouldn't drag all this attention by opening up with a policy post on killing the smurf. I don't know about GGQ, the rest are just derp votes. Fun fact, that wasn't what iGrok did at all, he opened with a post where he was explicitly pressure voting for me. Which as I explained is hilarious, because with majority votes a single vote means nothing. I like how you are framing him in a better light though. Care to tell me what the last game you rolled scum is? I think I may need to go re-read it. (sorry for triple posting, but since I'm all alone in the thread I thought I might as well talk to myself) | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 09 2011 04:18 TheAwesomeAll wrote: i disagree, ive never really seen a rvs on teamliquid and imo it basicly quick started the game. (i like the random talking about the game better) random vote, ergo scum, is a pretty bad base for an analysis. the rest of your analysis is pretty good but starting it of with that random vote makes me think you are mainly attacking him because he voted for you. None of my case is based on it being random voting, read the actual case. I'm simply saying I think its stupid, but towns do it all the time, its not really a tell either way. Way to take a single line and use it to try to discredit a whole case. I was just pointing out that I believe the RVS is utterly worthless, NOT that iGrok is scum for starting/participating in it. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
I'd like to hear a justification from Curu however, I hate votes without reasoning, now that we are more than 24 hours into day 1. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 09 2011 06:18 TheAwesomeAll wrote: ##unvote ##vote bumatlarge of iGrok and GGQ, iGrok is the scummiest but the case against either is pretty bad. Explain. Now. Why is bum a better lynch target than those two? Make a case! You cannot just make blanket statements and hope to get away with it. Why bum over iGrok? What makes the cases against them "bad"? What is the last game you rolled scum? @Jackal RVS stands for Random Voting Phase, its those five people who voted for someone at game start. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
| ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
| ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 09 2011 07:03 iGrok wrote: Haha, wow. This game is going to be fun. I can't have Pressure voted and Random voted. Pick one to accuse me of. But, your first post revealed your true identity, so now I've got something to play off of. So now lets take a look at what else has been going on. GGQ and JeeJee got into a pissing contest. chaos13 and wbg gave their opinions of things. BA finally posts, ~36 hours after I vote for him. TheAwesomeAll got some attention. I'm going to vote for TheAwesomeAll, not merely for his incredibly short posts, but for his suspicion of GGQ. "You're defending yourself so you must be scum!" ##Vote TheAwesomeAll ok, its rare a post makes my head hurt so much, of course a random vote is a pressure vote, that is usually the objective of random votes: to put pressure on people. In a majority lynch setting they fail to do that because a single vote is hardly a risk. Pressure voting and random voting aren't mutually exclusive. Yes, I posted late in the day, I had no need to post silly random votes that don't mean anything, when I post I try to make it count. Nice attempt at making me contradict myself, too bad its just as transparent as TTA's attempt at discrediting my argument Nice summary, shame it fails to contribute anything. Are you going to defend yourself? Or should we just lynch you? As far as to my true identity, you can *guess* at what it is, but I think you'll be surprised later. Either way, its a moot point, you are scum, and you are not getting anywhere fast by posting a "summary", that as wonderful as posting "lurker lists", a great way for scum to blend in. Seriously people, can we kill him already? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
I'm out for the next 5 or so hours. I will attempt to make it back before the deadline, no promises however. Calling all day1 posting "fluff" is hardly going to help us find scum. You are better than this, step it up. Either way, the town should know who to vote for. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
If I die lynch iGrok. If I don't then lynch him anyway. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/D0AmB.jpg) Its time. I have proven beyond any doubt that iGrok is scum, yet somehow his lynch was averted by one of the fastest forming and most suspicious wagons I have seen in a long time. Furthermore iGrok's "defense" has consisted of ignoring my accusations and accusing me of being scum , rather than addressing why he is jumpy and scared. Scum 101, if you can't defend yourself discredit your attacker, and ignore the arguments against you. I'm not going to allow it. It is time I put my money where my mouth is, or in this case my gun. I am a day vigi, and I am taking iGrok to the pits of hell, where he belongs. Since I am the man pulling the trigger I take full responsibility for his flip. I'll be back to analyze the interactions later, but for now please note how hard Curu and Palmar have defended him, and check to see how it was Curu who began the bandwagon against TAA that kept iGrok of the gallows, and Palmar who gave a 5% chance iGrok was scum. Keep this all in mind when we see the flip, when my holly bayonnets dig into iGrok's flesh. Let there be none to extend mercy unto him: neither let there be any to favor his fatherless children. Let his posterity be cut off; and in the generation following let their name be blotted out. Let the iniquity of his fathers be remembered with the LORD; and let not the sin of his mother be blotted out. Let them be before the LORD continually, that he may cut off the memory of them from the earth. Let this be the reward of mine adversaries from the LORD, and of them that speak evil against my soul. AMEN ##Kill: iGrok | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
Time to reread the thread. (After the TL Open is over) | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 11 2011 01:19 Curu wrote: And mister smurf man, now that your tunnel has died who do you find scummy? Can I get back to you on that? I was making my net of suspects based on iGrok flipping red, I need to go back and reread the thread and try to figure out what I've overlooked. bleh. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 11 2011 03:23 wherebugsgo wrote: Wait what the fuck I just noticed something. Mafia KP is 2 but only one person died last night? Who got saved? How do you know mafia KP is 2? It doesn't say that anywhere in the OP... scumslip? I mean 2 is likely, but we don't know that its that for sure... | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
sandroba ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/wYeM3.jpg) So, I was bored, so I went meta/lurker hunting, and I found the man of the hour, the person everyone seems to be willing to call out for lurking, yet no one seems to want to vote for or make a formal accusation of. Its time I changed that. Lets fliter sandroba and see what agenda he is pushing, what wonderful pro-town plans he has come up with, what awesome discussion he has begun. Here is his filter What jumps out at you right away? The guy has all of 10 posts! This is "active man" sandroba the guy who's posted such pro town sentiments as On July 25 2011 09:36 sandroba wrote: Sup people, I'd like to propose a new policy this game. Instead of lynching lurkers and liars, which produce no info whatsoever, we leave them to be shot at night by our vigs, if they exist. We can adjust acordingly if they fail to do their job. The policy is to lynch all non-sense. People are getting away too easily by throwing random acusations that make no sense to pretend to be scum hunting. This is to pressure mafia into skilfully captalizing into people's mistakes if they want to suceed and survive. They can't lurk, because they will be getting shot, and can't pretend to be dumb, cuz they will get lynched. Of course pressuring people is okay, but if you are pushing hard a lynch for a lynch based on shoody evidence I'll tunnel you into oblivion. and On August 14 2011 00:04 sandroba wrote: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://www.cracked.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/timepanties31.jpg) Okay people. First let's try to keep the posts regarding personality flavor to a bare minimum. This only helps mafia to hide, so don't go out of your way role playing. I know some people might have some posting restrictions, but know that posting any more fluf than you absolutely have to is anti-town behaviour and you WILL be held accountable for it. Now I want this question answered by everybody: Let's look at kurumi and his Bill Murray claim. Being BM, he could easily be VI trying to get lynched day1. He could also have a terrible posting restriction. Or he could be mafia trying to cause chaos. But we can't know for sure, so what I ask you is this: Do you think personalities point to aligment this game? Or do you think they only point towards role/posting style? My guess would be that some personalities would have a very high chance of being a certain aligment (i.e. ace is prob scum), but others not so much. Do we notice any policy post this game? Any suggestion that we vigi lurkers, or any point of discussion offered? Any attempt at generating controversy? No, we really don't. To anyone who has played with town sandroba in the past, this should be setting off every alarm bell in the system. We should be outright worried. this isn't how sandroba usually behaves. Lets be rational however, maybe its sandroba trying out a new style, trying a different method of playing, lets look at what he has actually contributed, maybe all our suspicion is unjustified, maybe he isn't posting plans because its a closed setup and he can't come up with anything, like talking about viging lurkers or avoiding tunnels or maintaining a pro-town atmosphere. Oh, wait, he says this, which is... fascinating. Its trying to *look* like one of his usual policy posts, but in reality its dodging discussion and not supporting his reasons. To me it looks like he is trying to emulate one of his usual policy/plan posts, but isn't willing to fully commit to it or the scrutiny it might put him under. So lets take a look at a couple of sandrobas wonderful contributions this game. On September 08 2011 08:04 sandroba wrote: Sup I don't think GGQ is scum. Suspcious people to me so far are iGrok and xfttfc whose behaviour day1 is 100% different than mafia xliv. xftc is being too absurdly confindent about his reads and even basing an entire scum team out of them when the game was only one page long (LOL). The whole notion is so ridiculous that to me it seems he is over compensating for his behaviour in the last game where he was townie and was found scummy by a lot of others. Makes no sense for a townie to throw acusations into 4 players this early with so little info, but it makes a lot of sense for scum to try to create this sort of confusion. I'd like you gather your thoughts and post in a more coherent manner until I decide if you are scum or not. You are right sandroba, throwing around suspicion *is* a mafia trait, great catch. I like how you mention iGrok in passing and don't actually say anything about him. Your description of xftc's behavior is pretty spot on, except your logic is all wrong. Scum *subtly* push lynches, they don't spearhead them, much less provide ridiculous scumlists, to me this looks like a shallow attempt to make an accusation out of almost no evidence. Notice how sandroba doesn't take a stance, notice how whishy washy the post is. He says X's (I'm never going to figure out how to spell his name) behavior "makes no sense for a townie", yet sandroba is willing to give him more time? He doesn't even vote for him, which is... odd... to say the least, considering how he just concluded town wouldn't be doing what X is doing. This post is worrying because its wishy-washy and non-committal Sandroba then proceeds to push suspicion onto iGrok by adding pressure to him, then out of the blue we have On September 09 2011 07:04 sandroba wrote: Alright TAA is the best lynch. No bullshit allowed here sir. ##Vote: TheAwesomeAll What the HELL? we went from this where sandroba was turning up the heat (yet oddly enough not voting, to this. Hint as a rule of thumb if you are on the same wagon as someone you consider suspicious you at least think twice about it. So, what does sandroba really do all of day 1? He pushes suspicion on two people, X and iGrok, defends GGQ and proceeds to vote for someone he hadn't even mentioned yet, with no reason given, can you say easy bandwagon? I could expand this post, looking at how he liked to push suspicion as scum, and how as town he is more active and questioning, but I don't honestly think its necessary, I'm pretty sure from what I've looked at alone we can tell he is scum. For those who dislike thinking, sandroba is scum because he 1.) Lurks like a madman, unlike his usual town play 2.) Shows wishy washyness 3.) Pushes suspicion around, something he had already said was anti-town 4.) Jumps on an easy bandwagon, with no justification 5.) People in the thread keep calling him out on being scum, and then proceed to do exactly nothing. Sandroba is scum ##Vote: Sandroba The LORD is righteous: he hath cut asunder the cords of the wicked. Let them all be confounded and turned back that hate Zion. Let them be as the grass upon the housetops, which withereth afore it groweth up: wherewith the mower filleth not his hand; nor he that bindeth sheaves his bosom. AMEN | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 12 2011 01:12 Curu wrote: Based on right now I would lynch sinani, bum, Jackal, or Palmar. I don't know if sandroba is actually lack-of-interest Townie or doing syllogism style "lurk as scum even when pressured until people forget about you" but he has indicated he will post more. If he doesn't hold to this we can lynch him. Please, town sandroba doesn't do this, I don't care what he's promised, notice how he showed up less than 6 hours after my analysis to promise more contribution? The guy is scum, no bones about it. I'm also ok with the bum lynch, although I'm convinced WBG's "slip" isn't one, he's been way too fearless to be scum. I've been wrong in the past, but if WBG flipped red I would be exceedingly surprised. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 12 2011 01:31 Curu wrote: Oh I agree but I'm perturbed at how quickly bum jumped on sandroba when sinani was the easy lynch today. Well one way or another we need to start consolidating votes on one of the main suspects, otherwise its going to be another TAA lynch where everyone decides to lynch someone who's hardly been talked about. While we are at it, has anyone else noticed that GGQ has dropped completely from everyone's radar? Seeing as he is the only surviving day 1 lynch candidate, I really want to hear more from him. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 12 2011 01:39 Curu wrote: What bugs me a bit is why would Zona be a shot + RB and why would a Medic choose to protect her, all in the same night. Of the current player list I think only a few have played games with Zona and also why would she shoot bum when her vote list was GGQ, me, Mig, sandroba? What reason would she have for claiming that as scum though? I'd understand claiming a hit as scum (maybe), but claiming vigilante and roleblock too makes next to no sense, I can't come up with a logical explanation why scum would make that contrived a claim. I agree that its odd that she was the focus of all those actions, especially considering she didn't exactly make herself controversial, but for now I'm inclined to give it credence. Can you come up with a reason why you might do that as scum? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
Sorry sandroba, but I'm not buying your explanation, even before going afk I feel like your behavior wasn't the usual town behavior I see out of you, I still think you are scum. Bugs, I really want to see the connection you claim exists between Palmar and Jackal. I'll confess I'm somewhat suspicious of jackal due to how damn agreeable he's been, but I'm *awful* at reading him, so any insight would be good. Something is fishy with Palmar, but with all the people avoiding the thread I haven't really taken a good look at him. Also GGQ, care to post, please? Your defensiveness day 1 already triggered some alarms, and you haven't done that much to assuage my worries. I don't know how bum concludes you are town tbh. Bum, what reasoning makes you think GGQ is town? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
CONCENTRATE FOLKS! We need to consolidate the votes and all this arguing is getting us nowhere, seriously, I don't care about your little spats, sinani/bumatrage/sandroba/wherebugsgo(lol) are the primary targets tonight, save arguing about other people till we have a majority on someone or have at least settled on who to kill. Right now we have less than 3 votes on any candidate and we need 7. By diluting the candidate pool we are giving the mafia a huge chance to vote for someone "so we don't no-lynch". We cannot afford that. Can we *please* shelve the rest of the accusations and arguments until we have at least 5-6 votes on a single candidate? Otherwise we are going to end up lynching someone who has hardly been discussed. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
Zona, in the interest of full disclosure I've played with you too, although it was a rather long time ago. I think I may be one of the few people who remembers the ZBot | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 12 2011 11:50 wherebugsgo wrote: This is exactly why I was like uhh no way bum is mafia at first lol This is the *most* retarded reason I have ever seen for calling someone town. You are aware that L rolled mafia his first 7 games? I'm flabbergasted that anyone would even say this... Anyway, can we get a votecount? Please? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 13 2011 03:48 Zona wrote: To the doctor or medic who protected me last night: I suggest that you consider protecting Curu tonight, since he is the ONLY confirmed townie that we have, thanks to his rather clever breadcrumb. If you were thinking about protecting me again tonight (and I hope you were), I would ask that you flip a coin, and based on that, protect Curu or myself. Last time a player crumbed flavor text in an Ace game he was instantly modkilled (deconduo in Closed Casket mafia), as Ace considers crumbing flavor to be a violation of the "don't post PM's from the host" rule. If curu is telling the truth, then he will be modkilled, which *royally* sucks, if he *isn't* modkilled then I think I'll have to conclude he is lying. I'm ok with a medic protecting either you or me, as I think we are the most "obvious" town left. Also, I'm probably going to be afk for the next 24 hours, as I have things to do and places to be | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 13 2011 11:36 Curu wrote: But with only 1 KP last night that must mean she purposely didn't shoot if she's SK. At this point I'm willing to buy her claim unless extra KP starts popping up. The smurf's post: Very much indicates a Pro Mafia mindset. He isn't willing to confirm me as Town or even consider it, instead pushing the idea that I must either be modkilled or that I am lying scum. Skepticism over the breadcrumb is plausible but not to the point where you only can only consider the two possibilities that are not helpful to Town. He has shown up to super tunnel a person each day without considering or commenting on any of the other candidates. His shot does not align with Mafia objectives, I agree, since flipping iGrok made me look a lot better, but if he is a Mafia Day Vig that was the only plausible shot he could make without looking super scummy. *sigh* I'm not going to argue with you. From Ace's past games I assumed he would kill you for crumbing, how is that scummy? It didn't occur to me that he might spare you for no apparent reason if you are town. I have a town read on you, which is *why* I assumed you were going to be modkilled. I don't see how thats looking at it from a mafia mindset, unless I'm an optimist mafia, in which case I don't see myself posting about it here, rather than waiting for you to be modkilled while giggling to myself. Please stop jumping to conclusions. If I were a mafia day vigi I would have saved my shot till lylo and fucked the town over, not shot one of the main suspects where I could push a mislynch... Either way, I'm not going to argue with you unless you bring a more substantial case. I find myself intrigued by your theory that Zona could be a SK, can you explain why a SK would claim the hit, rather than remaining quiet though? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 13 2011 11:47 Curu wrote: Because remaining quiet would basically be telling Mafia/the Vig that shot you that you're the SK since there's absolutely no reason for a Townie not to declare they were shot. Right, but what is the mafia going to do, oust a member to get the SK lynched? After seeing only one kill (assuming the SK shot, and I guess only one mafia kp [makes sense if there is an sk in play]) the SK knows that there was no vigilante (or can reasonably assume, at least), I mean, now that you bring up the possibility it does seem remotely possible, considering Ace likes SK roles, I'm just not entirely convinced. I guess I'll go back and read over her posts. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 13 2011 12:26 Curu wrote: God this is so unlike Town sandroba it's ridiculous. gee, I don't know of *anyone* whos been saying *that*. So you agree with my assessment of him? If I die, please make sure he gets lynched, ok? (unless you are his scum-buddy, which I doubt) | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 13 2011 12:35 wherebugsgo wrote: I wanna kill Palmar/Jackal in that order. Then I'm fine with sandroba. I give sandroba 24 hours into the day tomorrow before I will start pushing for his lynch. Right now there are better targets than him, I say we focus on them before splitting our vote. Thing is the moment we get majority the day ends, so if its lylo tomorrow and even one or two townies misvote right off the bat the whole mafia team can make the day immediately end. Let me stress this don't vote until we are sure of what we are doing. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 13 2011 12:45 wherebugsgo wrote: wait seriously? Day ends upon getting majority? That didn't happen yesterday, we had 7 votes and then I added the 8th and day didn't end... Ace was afk, but that is how majority works, read any other Ace game. Actually. Ace, day ends when we hit majority, right? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
So your argument boils down to "he is a dayvigi who *tunneled*, tunneling is *bad* " and "oh he thought Ace would modkill curu for crumbing, as happened in CC mafia". Let me tell you a secret, tunneling works, look at cosmic horror where GMarshal tunnels the hell out of wiggles. Look at almost any game Palmar plays in. If I were a scum day vigi I would have gone after a better player, like say you, or bum, or palmar. Not after iGrok, who is a relative noob. Also, if I'm a scum dayvigi why didn't I save my shot till lylo? Final question, since the deadline is over. Who did you shoot ? or are you going to be conveniently roleblocked? That accusation is totally contrived. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
| ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
ENOUGH! ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/aKBPD.jpg) I leave for a day and the town descends into derphell. I am disappointed in you people. No, its deeper than that, I am disheartened that you let heathens and heretics drive you from the true path. Let me spell it out for you folks, because its obviously not clear. We are at lylo, the game is in the balance, the mafia is making its last all out push to secure a victory and we stand at a crossroads. We have the most precarious of situations, two players have conflicting claims, claims that put them in direct opposition to each other. We need to make a choice, do we trust Palmar who has been playing somewhat out of character, or bumatlarge who has been more silent than expected? Palmar: Agent of the Inquisition or heretic? Lets break down the situation. What does Palmar claim, exactly? On September 13 2011 18:35 Palmar wrote: I'm an alignment cop, apparently wbg is guilty. I have an innocent report on bum from night one. a) wbg got framed b) someone bussed someone c) I'm insane So this means bum could just as well be scum as anyone else, because there is apparently some mindfuck mechanic in this game. Now lets look at this in a vacuum, analyzing the choices and decisions Palmar has made through the game in isolation from the contradiction between his claim and bumatlarge's, lets see if Palmars behavior this game makes sense for an alignment cop This post immediately jumped out at me On September 08 2011 19:06 Palmar wrote: Actually, I still like chaos13 as scum. I don't think iGrok is scum, he wouldn't drag all this attention by opening up with a policy post on killing the smurf. I don't know about GGQ, the rest are just derp votes. Why does this post jump out at me? Lets look at Palmar's day one play in XLIV + Show Spoiler + On August 19 2011 22:35 Palmar wrote: you guys are fucking lazy and boring. Why not just bandwagon everything I say? that's a good plan. Go read DB's first post in PTP2 where he was town. He's like 1000 trillion times more careful and vague in these opening posts than last time. Here's his PTP2 opening post for comparison: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10466682 He's careful to just give advice that cannot possibly rub anyone the wrong way. SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM On August 20 2011 01:00 Palmar wrote: I don't have a problem with killing sevryn But dropbear is an enemy, he must die. On August 21 2011 01:29 Palmar wrote: Woah woah, where did I say I had little reasoning? I said I jumped the first scummy fucker I found. That means I had a better reason to believe he was scum than anyone else in the thread at that point. I still think there's very good chances of DB flipping scum, but I think our chances are better with BB. I still think that meta argument is quite valid. But there is more to go on with BrownBear. I don't think agreeing with me is at all scummy just for the sake of agreeing with me. Again, its how people say things, not what they say. But really, it's not my methodology we should be discussing, but much rather who we think is scum. IN fact here is his filter Do you notice a trend, something characteristic? Palmar doesn't have a single null read. He doesn't defend anyone either Looking through cosmic horror he *does* defend some people, but look at how he does it On August 25 2011 20:32 Palmar wrote: yes, but look at the way tnkted is posting. I'd rather lynch almost everyone in this town than him. Wiggles is the alternative wagon, and while I have no clue how Ferryman goes about pinning him EA vs just "anti-town", I think the case against wiggles is much stronger. Wiggles is a great player, but I just don't think it'll work in our favour this game. Palmar Backs up his reasoning and provides motives why he thinks someone is town, yet he utterly fails to do it here, the only reason he calls iGrok town is " he wouldn't drag all this attention by opening up with a policy post on killing the smurf. " which to me sounds like an intentionally weak defense. In fact it sounds just like the kind of defense that won't slow down a wagon but will give credit for defending a townie later. None of this is damning yet, none of this is something that condemns Palmar. Not like this post anyway On September 09 2011 09:27 Palmar wrote: there isn't much to go on with TAA, the thing is he agrees with me mig is very likely scum, it could be an attempt to distance himself or something. But he usually doesn't lurk and one-line this hard as town. There is another thing that I'm leaning town on Bumatlarge too, so his vote on Bum makes no sense to me, I think I'm down with lynching TAA yeah. I actually like him better than GGQ, and iGrok is almost definitely not scum. let's do it. Read the red text. Then go back to Palmar's claim of being a role cop and having checked bum day 1. Now read that line again. Now ask yourself, why the hell would a dt check someone he thinks is town dts can take two approaches, check people you think are scum (if you are a mediocre/poor scumhunter) or check people you have null reads on (if you trust your analysis). Why, by the holy cross, would you ever consider checking a town read? This makes no sense and is the very first damning peice of evidence against Palmar, it suddenly brings his meta change into sharp contrast, his defense of a townie takes on a new color. Especially considering he spent all of day 1 making posts like this and this. Yet despite having "no read on GGQ" and being sure that Mig is scum, he chooses to check someone who "is probably town". Cut me a break, if you are tunneling someone as hard as he was tunneling Mig, you check him, or if you are 100% confident you check one of your scumreads. Now, I also want to point out a huge shift in Palmar's tunneling. When Palmar thinks he's found scum, he doesn't drop it, ever,or without providing good reasoning. Yet in this game right after day 2 hits Palmar just forgets about mig, like hardly mentions him. Where is the palmar that never forgot, never forgave, from XLIV, who was still pushing for a BrownBear lynch deep into day 4, until he succeeded in getting it? Where is the Palmar from cosmic horror who decided wiggles was scum and sided with Ferryman until the mafia shot both of them to shut them up? He isn't here, he's been replaced by the Palmar from SNMMIII where he "tunnels" for a little while and then happily backs off to work on something else. Posts like this are only present in Palmars scum play, compare it to this post from this game. He then claims to have checked WBG to determine his alignment, which would make sense, if palmar seemed to be following a policy of checking those he thinks are scum, but Palmar was 100% sure WBG was scum because he "scumslipped", and he checked Bumatlarge day 1 if his claim is to be believed, which means he would rather check someone who he has a null or green read on, right? This behavior makes next to no sense. Oh by the way Palmar has condemned lynching on scumslips in the past, I don't feel like finding the exact post at this point, but I find it pretty damning that a player as good as he is wanted to lynch based on a scumslip. Well that pretty conclusively proves to me that Palmar's claim is... hard to believe to say the least. Let's do a quick analysis of Bumatlarge and then decide which claim we believe. Bumatlarge, Defender of the Faith or Inquisitor Killer Let us begin by looking at Bumatlarge's claim: On September 14 2011 03:24 bumatlarge wrote: K palmar has to be scum then. I'm a paranoid gun owner, and no one has visited me this entire game, or they would be dead.  maybe things will be a little clearer for you zona?Now PGO is a difficult role to play, it requires you to convince the mafia that you merit visiting (are a threat) by posing as a blue, without being enough of a threat in the thread that a medic protects you, or so scummy that a DT checks you. This is a challenge for even experienced players and has very specific tells, notably "blue slipping" and moderate lurking, both of which attempt to simulate a blue role. When the game started and I saw this post I facepalmed hard On September 07 2011 11:40 bumatlarge wrote: Let's talk about irrelevant things in ace's game! This set-up is weird is completely closed so I'm gonna throw it out there that I think everyone has some sort of ability. I thought "goddamn it, what an obvious blue slip, watch bum get sniped night one" I obviously didn't point it out or say anything, because pointing out blue slips is terrible play, one just tries to cover them up. Obviously JeeJee took a different interpretation when he saw the post and called it bluefishing. Still that was a very deliberate move from bum, one that gives credence to his claim. Its certainly a good move if he really is a PGO. Notice his following posts On September 12 2011 03:21 bumatlarge wrote: I don't remember any of this, I knew you claimed a hit or something, but you also shot me? Wut? Anyway, I think I believe for now that sandroba was not in the right state of mind, and I'm having second thoughts about GGQ. Recalling again the sleeper cell game (went back there to check sandrobas stuff; but he played smart mafia there in a blind game, he just seems lowkey for pureley non-mafia related reasons) where he slipped under my radar that game, I'm not feeling convinced as I was about him. I was more sure about iGrok, but he popped town, and I think it's even more likely for ggq to do the same thing. I think there are better targets. On the Palmar/Mig thing, I'm fairly suspicious of both, I'll read through it again. I can't tel if bugs is acting weirder then usual. Zona can you clarify exactly what you are claiming here? I was content with just leaving it at "you took a hit" but now you are claiming medic/RB and you are a vig? I'll better defend myself from your accusations if I am forced to, but I would rather not at the moment. READING Notice this post, it points out suspcious behavior, without trying to make himself a threat to the mafia, to a strong analyst this post looks like someone who is holding back out of fear, but look at what he is afraid of, he is trying to avoid attention, while pointing out his reads, he was fairly consistent about calling out the Palmar/mig situation, and commenting on ongoing things while defending himself without sticking his neck out. This post looks lurky, but not necessarily in a mafia favored way. Notice how as the game goes on and the number of blues drops he steps up what he is contributing with posts like this This also looks like smart PGO play, as the game goes on and there are fewer blues mafia is more likely to hit you, so you can make yourself a legitimate threat without being afraid of hitting you medic. Also worth noting is how consistent and bold bumatlarges opinions are, I really don't think they would be that strong if he were scum. Both Palmar and Bum love fakeclaiming as scum, as I was going to bring that up as a point, but its a null tell. Anyway, there isn't that much to say about bum other than his behavior lines up perfectly with his claim, I fully subscribe to Bumatlarge being a PGO. The TL:DR Bum and Palmar have two contradicting claims, we need to pick between the two to find out which is lying, the one who is lying is also scum, to do this I did a behavioral analysis based on their claims. In summary 1.) Palmar has claimed alignment cop, yet his behavior doesn't make sense for an alignment cop, seeing as he claimed to have checked someone he thought was green 2.) Palmar has been playing off his usual meta, hard defending players and behaving in an anti-town manner 3.) Palmar isn't pushing those he thinks are scum, like he does when he is town 4.) Palmar is providing shoddy or non-existent reasoning for his actions 5.) Bumatlarges play matches up exactly with his claimed role, PGO 6.) Bumatlarge has done nothing that would make me think he is likely mafia. 7.) Bum is more believable than Palmar right now, and thus Palmar is almost certainly lying and scum ##Vote: Palmar In this situation everyone should be picking one side or the other, not voting for anyone else. If Palmar flips scum (and he will) then Jackal is also probably his buddy, and should be killed tonight if we have any living vigi's. @Zona, remember the roleblock I got last night lasts through today, so even if I had a second bullet I couldn't use it, as to whether I do or not, I'll keep the mafia guessing, they should shoot me tonight if they don't want any unpleasant surprises tomorrow morning. The LORD hear thee in the day of trouble; the name of the God of Jacob defend thee; send thee help from the sanctuary, and strengthen thee out of Zion; remember all thy offerings, and accept thy burnt sacrifice. Grant thee according to thine own heart, and fulfil all thy counsel. We will rejoice in thy salvation, and in the name of our God we will set up our banners: the LORD fulfil all thy petitions. Now know I that the LORD saveth his anointed; he will hear him from his holy heaven with the saving strength of his right hand. Some trust in chariots, and some in horses: but we will remember the name of the LORD our God. They are brought down and fallen: but we are risen, and stand upright. let the king hear us when we call. AMEN | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 15 2011 06:03 Palmar wrote: (I was town in SNMMIII bro, that post you linked...) facepalm, CP fail, I had a post from a game where you were mafia originally selected, and now I can't remember what game it was from, great. *cries* You are still scum | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 15 2011 06:25 Jackal58 wrote: Sandroba, Bumatlarge, BayonetteAnderson, Zona Scum day vig, scum night vig. Well actually a bullshit claim by a bullshit night vig. And a bullshit RB claim. How the hell does a dead protector role role block anybody. Pure bullshit. LOLOLOL so scummy. Keep going all in mafia, I'm pretty sure there is a town vigi left over somewhere, and if he has two brain cells to rub together he'll blow your brains out tonight. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
I want to have till around deadline for discussion purposes , this way we avoid a ninja hammer. Plus I want to see what Mig thinks of this whole thing, he's been awfully quiet. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
I propose Jackal, does anyone else have any other suggestions? | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
| ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 15 2011 08:38 Jackal58 wrote: You were so sure sandroba was scum. + Show Spoiler + On September 11 2011 12:41 BayonnetAnderson wrote: sandroba So, I was bored, so I went meta/lurker hunting, and I found the man of the hour, the person everyone seems to be willing to call out for lurking, yet no one seems to want to vote for or make a formal accusation of. Its time I changed that. Lets fliter sandroba and see what agenda he is pushing, what wonderful pro-town plans he has come up with, what awesome discussion he has begun. Here is his filter What jumps out at you right away? The guy has all of 10 posts! This is "active man" sandroba the guy who's posted such pro town sentiments as and Do we notice any policy post this game? Any suggestion that we vigi lurkers, or any point of discussion offered? Any attempt at generating controversy? No, we really don't. To anyone who has played with town sandroba in the past, this should be setting off every alarm bell in the system. We should be outright worried. this isn't how sandroba usually behaves. Lets be rational however, maybe its sandroba trying out a new style, trying a different method of playing, lets look at what he has actually contributed, maybe all our suspicion is unjustified, maybe he isn't posting plans because its a closed setup and he can't come up with anything, like talking about viging lurkers or avoiding tunnels or maintaining a pro-town atmosphere. Oh, wait, he says this, which is... fascinating. Its trying to *look* like one of his usual policy posts, but in reality its dodging discussion and not supporting his reasons. To me it looks like he is trying to emulate one of his usual policy/plan posts, but isn't willing to fully commit to it or the scrutiny it might put him under. So lets take a look at a couple of sandrobas wonderful contributions this game. You are right sandroba, throwing around suspicion *is* a mafia trait, great catch. I like how you mention iGrok in passing and don't actually say anything about him. Your description of xftc's behavior is pretty spot on, except your logic is all wrong. Scum *subtly* push lynches, they don't spearhead them, much less provide ridiculous scumlists, to me this looks like a shallow attempt to make an accusation out of almost no evidence. Notice how sandroba doesn't take a stance, notice how whishy washy the post is. He says X's (I'm never going to figure out how to spell his name) behavior "makes no sense for a townie", yet sandroba is willing to give him more time? He doesn't even vote for him, which is... odd... to say the least, considering how he just concluded town wouldn't be doing what X is doing. This post is worrying because its wishy-washy and non-committal Sandroba then proceeds to push suspicion onto iGrok by adding pressure to him, then out of the blue we have What the HELL? we went from this where sandroba was turning up the heat (yet oddly enough not voting, to this. Hint as a rule of thumb if you are on the same wagon as someone you consider suspicious you at least think twice about it. So, what does sandroba really do all of day 1? He pushes suspicion on two people, X and iGrok, defends GGQ and proceeds to vote for someone he hadn't even mentioned yet, with no reason given, can you say easy bandwagon? I could expand this post, looking at how he liked to push suspicion as scum, and how as town he is more active and questioning, but I don't honestly think its necessary, I'm pretty sure from what I've looked at alone we can tell he is scum. For those who dislike thinking, sandroba is scum because he 1.) Lurks like a madman, unlike his usual town play 2.) Shows wishy washyness 3.) Pushes suspicion around, something he had already said was anti-town 4.) Jumps on an easy bandwagon, with no justification 5.) People in the thread keep calling him out on being scum, and then proceed to do exactly nothing. Sandroba is scum ##Vote: Sandroba The LORD is righteous: he hath cut asunder the cords of the wicked. Let them all be confounded and turned back that hate Zion. Let them be as the grass upon the housetops, which withereth afore it groweth up: wherewith the mower filleth not his hand; nor he that bindeth sheaves his bosom. AMEN And you were OK with a Bum lynch. + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2011 01:29 BayonnetAnderson wrote: Please, town sandroba doesn't do this, I don't care what he's promised, notice how he showed up less than 6 hours after my analysis to promise more contribution? The guy is scum, no bones about it. I'm also ok with the bum lynch, although I'm convinced WBG's "slip" isn't one, he's been way too fearless to be scum. I've been wrong in the past, but if WBG flipped red I would be exceedingly surprised. But now you're voting with both of them. I hate TV evangelists. You're all scummy con artists. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ZxEfl.jpg) | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCKFUCK GUESS WHAT? THE MAFIA HAS A POLITICIAN. WHO JUST BOUGHT MY VOTE. ##Vote: Bumatlarge SJKSFJKFDFSJKLWPOIHJFSHJUIOSDFGHS I AM GOING TO GO PUNCH KITTENS IN THE FACE. GAHHHH, I HATE THIS GAME. HSDKJASDHJFSDAHJSDA | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 15 2011 12:01 sandroba wrote: jackal, will you absolutely not switch to palmar? Because I'm considering switching to bum to either get this over with or in the off chance I'm wrong. Dont you fucking dare. Palmar is scum. We *have* to have a vigi left. I'm going to go take a walk before I say something I might regret. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
Is the mafia worried that there are vigis left? The game isn't as in the bag as you thought? Vigis, nuke Palmar and Jackal, confirmed liars. From there on out we can figure it out. and pray hard that one of them flips politician, or else we might be equally fucked. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 15 2011 12:21 sandroba wrote: Spare jackal for now. Hit Palmar and mig. I'm still deciding who of bayonnet and jackal is scum. Why the fuck would you spare what is basically a confirmed liar? I can't believe you actually think jackal is town after how conveniently his claim supported Palmar I'm going to sleep, I'll give my thoughts tomorrow before the daypost. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/wz2YY.jpg) My soul is weary of my life; I will leave my complaint upon myself; I will speak in the bitterness of my soul. I will say unto God, Do not condemn me; show me wherefore thou contendest with me. Is it good unto thee that thou shouldest oppress, that thou shouldest despise the work of thine hands, and shine upon the counsel of the wicked? Hast thou eyes of flesh? Or seest thou as man seeth? Are thy days as the days of man? Are thy years as man's days, that thou inquirest after mine iniquity, and searchest after my sin? Thou knowest that I am not wicked; and there is none that can deliver out of thine hand. AMEN | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
Also I still think we needed to have bussed Palmar once he claimed DT, could have easily gotten Jackal killed and then won from there. All is well that ends well, I guess. | ||
|
BayonnetAnderson
United States60 Posts
On September 19 2011 09:46 chaos13 wrote: If BA hadn't been roleblocked we could have all voted bum and won that day. For some idiotic reason we didn't change our plan after he was blocked. I tried to, I was the only one who tried to... *cries* | ||
| ||
