ENOUGH!
I leave for a day and the town descends into derphell. I am disappointed in you people. No, its deeper than that, I am disheartened that you let heathens and heretics drive you from the true path. Let me spell it out for you folks, because its obviously not clear. We are at lylo, the game is in the balance, the mafia is making its last all out push to secure a victory and we stand at a crossroads. We have the most precarious of situations, two players have conflicting claims, claims that put them in direct opposition to each other. We need to make a choice, do we trust Palmar who has been playing somewhat out of character, or bumatlarge who has been more silent than expected?
Palmar: Agent of the Inquisition or heretic?
Lets break down the situation. What does Palmar claim, exactly?
On September 13 2011 18:35 Palmar wrote:
I'm an alignment cop, apparently wbg is guilty. I have an innocent report on bum from night one.
a) wbg got framed
b) someone bussed someone
c) I'm insane
So this means bum could just as well be scum as anyone else, because there is apparently some mindfuck mechanic in this game.
Now lets look at this in a vacuum, analyzing the choices and decisions Palmar has made through the game in isolation from the contradiction between his claim and bumatlarge's, lets see if Palmars behavior this game makes sense for an alignment cop
This post immediately jumped out at me
On September 08 2011 19:06 Palmar wrote:
Actually, I still like chaos13 as scum.
I don't think iGrok is scum, he wouldn't drag all this attention by opening up with a policy post on killing the smurf. I don't know about GGQ, the rest are just derp votes.
Why does this post jump out at me? Lets look at Palmar's day one play in XLIV
+ Show Spoiler +On August 19 2011 22:35 Palmar wrote:you guys are fucking lazy and boring. Why not just bandwagon everything I say? that's a good plan. Go read DB's first post in PTP2 where he was town. He's like 1000 trillion times more careful and vague in these opening posts than last time. Here's his PTP2 opening post for comparison: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10466682He's careful to just give advice that cannot possibly rub anyone the wrong way. SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM On August 20 2011 01:00 Palmar wrote:
I don't have a problem with killing sevryn
But dropbear is an enemy, he must die. On August 21 2011 01:29 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 01:16 Curu wrote:
You admitted yourself you have little reasoning behind the accusations, but now it's more scummy for people to disagree with your little reasoning than for people to agree for even worse reasons? Woah woah, where did I say I had little reasoning? I said I jumped the first scummy fucker I found. That means I had a better reason to believe he was scum than anyone else in the thread at that point. I still think there's very good chances of DB flipping scum, but I think our chances are better with BB. I still think that meta argument is quite valid. But there is more to go on with BrownBear. I don't think agreeing with me is at all scummy just for the sake of agreeing with me. Again, its how people say things, not what they say. But really, it's not my methodology we should be discussing, but much rather who we think is scum. IN fact here is his filter
Do you notice a trend, something characteristic? Palmar doesn't have a single null read. He doesn't defend anyone either Looking through cosmic horror he *does* defend some people, but look at how he does it
On August 25 2011 20:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 20:25 Eiii wrote:
I don't really see it. Drawing evidence to support a pretty scary-looking case against you-- especially evidence that's a frustrating, memorable, and recent experience of just about the same situation-- isn't all that damning to me. yes, but look at the way tnkted is posting. I'd rather lynch almost everyone in this town than him. Wiggles is the alternative wagon, and while I have no clue how Ferryman goes about pinning him EA vs just "anti-town", I think the case against wiggles is much stronger. Wiggles is a great player, but I just don't think it'll work in our favour this game.
Palmar Backs up his reasoning and provides motives why he thinks someone is town, yet he utterly fails to do it here, the only reason he calls iGrok town is " he wouldn't drag all this attention by opening up with a policy post on killing the smurf. " which to me sounds like an intentionally weak defense. In fact it sounds just like the kind of defense that won't slow down a wagon but will give credit for defending a townie later. None of this is damning yet, none of this is something that condemns Palmar. Not like this post anyway
On September 09 2011 09:27 Palmar wrote:
there isn't much to go on with TAA, the thing is he agrees with me mig is very likely scum, it could be an attempt to distance himself or something.
But he usually doesn't lurk and one-line this hard as town. There is another thing that I'm leaning town on Bumatlarge too, so his vote on Bum makes no sense to me, I think I'm down with lynching TAA yeah. I actually like him better than GGQ, and iGrok is almost definitely not scum.
let's do it.
Read the red text. Then go back to Palmar's claim of being a role cop and having checked bum day 1. Now read that line again. Now ask yourself, why the hell would a dt check someone he thinks is town dts can take two approaches, check people you think are scum (if you are a mediocre/poor scumhunter) or check people you have null reads on (if you trust your analysis). Why, by the holy cross, would you ever consider checking a town read? This makes no sense and is the very first damning peice of evidence against Palmar, it suddenly brings his meta change into sharp contrast, his defense of a townie takes on a new color. Especially considering he spent all of day 1 making posts like this and this. Yet despite having "no read on GGQ" and being sure that Mig is scum, he chooses to check someone who "is probably town". Cut me a break, if you are tunneling someone as hard as he was tunneling Mig, you check him, or if you are 100% confident you check one of your scumreads.
Now, I also want to point out a huge shift in Palmar's tunneling. When Palmar thinks he's found scum, he doesn't drop it, ever,or without providing good reasoning. Yet in this game right after day 2 hits Palmar just forgets about mig, like hardly mentions him. Where is the palmar that never forgot, never forgave, from XLIV, who was still pushing for a BrownBear lynch deep into day 4, until he succeeded in getting it? Where is the Palmar from cosmic horror who decided wiggles was scum and sided with Ferryman until the mafia shot both of them to shut them up? He isn't here, he's been replaced by the Palmar from SNMMIII where he "tunnels" for a little while and then happily backs off to work on something else. Posts like this are only present in Palmars scum play, compare it to this post from this game.
He then claims to have checked WBG to determine his alignment, which would make sense, if palmar seemed to be following a policy of checking those he thinks are scum, but Palmar was 100% sure WBG was scum because he "scumslipped", and he checked Bumatlarge day 1 if his claim is to be believed, which means he would rather check someone who he has a null or green read on, right? This behavior makes next to no sense.
Oh by the way Palmar has condemned lynching on scumslips in the past, I don't feel like finding the exact post at this point, but I find it pretty damning that a player as good as he is wanted to lynch based on a scumslip.
Well that pretty conclusively proves to me that Palmar's claim is... hard to believe to say the least. Let's do a quick analysis of Bumatlarge and then decide which claim we believe.
Bumatlarge, Defender of the Faith or Inquisitor Killer
Let us begin by looking at Bumatlarge's claim:
On September 14 2011 03:24 bumatlarge wrote:K palmar has to be scum then. I'm a paranoid gun owner, and no one has visited me this entire game, or they would be dead.  maybe things will be a little clearer for you zona?
Now PGO is a difficult role to play, it requires you to convince the mafia that you merit visiting (are a threat) by posing as a blue, without being enough of a threat in the thread that a medic protects you, or so scummy that a DT checks you. This is a challenge for even experienced players and has very specific tells, notably "blue slipping" and moderate lurking, both of which attempt to simulate a blue role.
When the game started and I saw this post I facepalmed hard
On September 07 2011 11:40 bumatlarge wrote:
Let's talk about irrelevant things in ace's game! This set-up is weird is completely closed so I'm gonna throw it out there that I think everyone has some sort of ability.
I thought "goddamn it, what an obvious blue slip, watch bum get sniped night one" I obviously didn't point it out or say anything, because pointing out blue slips is terrible play, one just tries to cover them up. Obviously JeeJee took a different interpretation when he saw the post and called it bluefishing. Still that was a very deliberate move from bum, one that gives credence to his claim. Its certainly a good move if he really is a PGO. Notice his following posts
On September 12 2011 03:21 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On September 12 2011 02:19 Zona wrote:On September 12 2011 01:39 Curu wrote:
What bugs me a bit is why would Zona be a shot + RB and why would a Medic choose to protect her, all in the same night. Of the current player list I think only a few have played games with Zona and also why would she shoot bum when her vote list was GGQ, me, Mig, sandroba? I decided to shoot bumatlarge because during Night 1 when I reread the game, I noticed the parts that comprise the case I presented publicly and decided he was scummier than the others. You'll notice that everything in that case occurs before day 2. And better yet, bumatlarge has said nothing since then except to appear and write a pithy single post in his own defense against my case. I don't remember any of this, I knew you claimed a hit or something, but you also shot me? Wut? Anyway, I think I believe for now that sandroba was not in the right state of mind, and I'm having second thoughts about GGQ. Recalling again the sleeper cell game (went back there to check sandrobas stuff; but he played smart mafia there in a blind game, he just seems lowkey for pureley non-mafia related reasons) where he slipped under my radar that game, I'm not feeling convinced as I was about him. I was more sure about iGrok, but he popped town, and I think it's even more likely for ggq to do the same thing. I think there are better targets. On the Palmar/Mig thing, I'm fairly suspicious of both, I'll read through it again. I can't tel if bugs is acting weirder then usual. Zona can you clarify exactly what you are claiming here? I was content with just leaving it at "you took a hit" but now you are claiming medic/RB and you are a vig? I'll better defend myself from your accusations if I am forced to, but I would rather not at the moment. READING
Notice this post, it points out suspcious behavior, without trying to make himself a threat to the mafia, to a strong analyst this post looks like someone who is holding back out of fear, but look at what he is afraid of, he is trying to avoid attention, while pointing out his reads, he was fairly consistent about calling out the Palmar/mig situation, and commenting on ongoing things while defending himself without sticking his neck out. This post looks lurky, but not necessarily in a mafia favored way. Notice how as the game goes on and the number of blues drops he steps up what he is contributing with posts like this This also looks like smart PGO play, as the game goes on and there are fewer blues mafia is more likely to hit you, so you can make yourself a legitimate threat without being afraid of hitting you medic. Also worth noting is how consistent and bold bumatlarges opinions are, I really don't think they would be that strong if he were scum.
Both Palmar and Bum love fakeclaiming as scum, as I was going to bring that up as a point, but its a null tell.
Anyway, there isn't that much to say about bum other than his behavior lines up perfectly with his claim, I fully subscribe to Bumatlarge being a PGO.
The TL:DR
Bum and Palmar have two contradicting claims, we need to pick between the two to find out which is lying, the one who is lying is also scum, to do this I did a behavioral analysis based on their claims.
In summary
1.) Palmar has claimed alignment cop, yet his behavior doesn't make sense for an alignment cop, seeing as he claimed to have checked someone he thought was green
2.) Palmar has been playing off his usual meta, hard defending players and behaving in an anti-town manner
3.) Palmar isn't pushing those he thinks are scum, like he does when he is town
4.) Palmar is providing shoddy or non-existent reasoning for his actions
5.) Bumatlarges play matches up exactly with his claimed role, PGO
6.) Bumatlarge has done nothing that would make me think he is likely mafia.
7.) Bum is more believable than Palmar right now, and thus Palmar is almost certainly lying and scum
##Vote: Palmar
In this situation everyone should be picking one side or the other, not voting for anyone else. If Palmar flips scum (and he will) then Jackal is also probably his buddy, and should be killed tonight if we have any living vigi's.
@Zona, remember the roleblock I got last night lasts through today, so even if I had a second bullet I couldn't use it, as to whether I do or not, I'll keep the mafia guessing, they should shoot me tonight if they don't want any unpleasant surprises tomorrow morning.
The LORD hear thee in the day of trouble;
the name of the God of Jacob defend thee;
send thee help from the sanctuary,
and strengthen thee out of Zion;
remember all thy offerings,
and accept thy burnt sacrifice.
Grant thee according to thine own heart,
and fulfil all thy counsel.
We will rejoice in thy salvation,
and in the name of our God we will set up our banners:
the LORD fulfil all thy petitions.
Now know I that the LORD saveth his anointed;
he will hear him from his holy heaven
with the saving strength of his right hand.
Some trust in chariots, and some in horses:
but we will remember the name of the LORD our God.
They are brought down and fallen:
but we are risen, and stand upright.
let the king hear us when we call.
AMEN
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/aKBPD.jpg)
