*stands up, clears voice*
Ladies and Gentlemen, it seems like we have allowed ourselves to get distracted from what really matters, from lynching correctly, out of fear, fear of being wrong. I know my case against wiggles has failed to convince some of you. That was... to be expected. Which is why, when I designed my case, I built a trap around it, and ambush into which only a player who is not town aligned would fall. And I must say, Mr.Wiggles fell into the trap, with what could almost be called gusto.
So without further ado
Let me ask you gentelmen a question, what is it that mafia hate? They hate being in the spotlight, but most of all they hate being in the spotlight accused as mafia. In fact they'd much rather be considered third party than mafia (see Bumatlarge claiming SK in PTP mafia). The rationale behind it is simple, a third party is less of a threat to the town than the mafia, hence less likely to be killed. Especially if the mafia can quickly redirect focus. Knowing this I made my original accusations of wiggles without mentioning the possibility that he could be town. I clearly made him out to be the horror. Wiggles never called me out on this. A couple other players did, notable chaos13 and Jackal58, but Wiggles did not, he avoided bringing up the issue at all. All he had to do to discredit my argument was say "why does the ferryman not even consider the possibility that I am mafia? Does he know something I don't?" and I would have believed he was town. However, this dosen't happen. Why? Because wiggles is scum and the last thing he wants is to redirect the attention of an analyst to the possibility that he might be mafia. Remember he has more cred and can more easily wiggle out of the lynch as long as people are convinced he is the horror, rather than scum.
Allow me to quote one little tidbit
On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game.
Wiggles is aware that I haven't called him mafia, and he *brings attention to it* without using it to discredit my argument as to avoid a shift in focus Wiggles is not happy with being called out on being the EH, however to him its still better than being called scum.
There is exactly one post where he mentions any possibility that he could be mafia, and that's to "prove" that the mafia would hunt for the EH day 1, which obviously wiggles cannot be, since he isn't hunting the EH, just the soft target Eiii.
Wiggles is not only not reacting the way a townie would, he's milking my accusation to dodge the possibility of being called mafia and by extension, the lynch.
Wiggles. Scum?
Now, having this fact in mind, combined with the surprising number of people that defended wiggles from my accusation of being the EH, lets revisit the accusations I made, this time considering the possibility that wiggles could be mafia.
Lets take his first post, one more time.
On August 24 2011 02:51 Mr. Wiggles wrote:##Vote: Eiii Where you at? + Show Spoiler +http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtrEN-YKLBM
Killing Eldricht would be nice to get rid of the third party, but it's not the biggest priority for town on Day 1, because it takes him a while to achieve his win condition. (Like at least 7 nights if greens aren't killed/lynched, unrealistic, I know, but just an example) As well, we have the psychologist who can cure insanity. So, to talk about the set-up a little, do people think it would be a good idea for the psychologist to claim his target at the end of night 1? It makes the psychologist claim early, but that way if he dies, then we have probably found the Eldricht Horror. The only way this wouldn't be the case, would be if mafia shot him, but then he could just claim earlier. (Because mafia don't really want to shoot him right away without reason, as he keeps them from losing the game to insanity as well) There's both Pro's and Con's to this, and it depends on the relative threat that we perceive the Eldricht Horror as. Pros: -Lets us catch the Eldricht Horror more easily, knowing as soon as the Psychologist dies. -Let's us coordinate the Psychologist a little (don't know if this is necessary) Cons: -Mafia know not to shoot the Psychologist, reducing the pool of townies (1 person so not that terrible) -Mafia can screw with town by killing the Psychologist and trying for a mislynch on his target. Personally, I don't really think it's worth it after actually writing out the Pros and Cons, but I don't think I'm going to delete this post because I spent like 5 minutes writing it, and it provides a good start for actual discussion. In my opinion, a better option is actually having the psychologist bread-crumb his visits, so that way, if he ever dies and flips, then we have a list of players cleared of being the Eldricht Horror, and we have a possible target for who the Third Party actually is. Discuss!
Lets take a careful look at two major points that take place in this post.
1.) Wiggles posts an extremely pro-EH and pro-mafia plan that is going to allow scum to blend in
2.) Wiggles backtracks on his extremely anti-town plan. And proposes another plan that is also anti-town
Point by point now. How is the plan both EH and Mafia favored. Its clear how it helps the EH, and I discussed that in depth, but many people might miss how it helps the mafia. It keeps our attention occupied. Let us say we go through with this plan, and the psychologist claims, and then immediately dies. All of the next day would be spent arguing about lynching the psychologist's target and basically discussing the EH. Which is something that allows the mafia to blend in easily. This whole idea and point of discussion isn't furthering town goals, its giving scum something easy to discuss.
The backtracking, ah the backtracking, I believe I've already talked about that to death, however lets revisit the point once more, for those too lazy to go back and find what I said, backtracking is a method of dodging responsibility if any stupid townies follow the plan, as well as sabotaging the whole point of proposing a plan for discussion. It is also a trait scum wiggles often exhibits, as proven in my analysis of his third party play (there is a reason I chose Insane mafia 2 for my meta example, where the 3rd party was like a scum team, with no fear of getting shot, much like in this game)
The crumbs, or "how the mafia is going to find the doctor". This is a plan that seems innocuous at first, but then you realize the mafia will have an information advantage, in fact this means that if there is ever a successful save the medic is *dead*, given away by his breadcrumbs. If the medic lies then he's risking getting lynched if things don't add up later. This whole idea just makes our medic vulnerable and pushes attention onto the EH over mafia. Remember, the moment the psychologist dies the town is going to be in an uproar discussing his "crumbs", even if we have scum looking right at us, most of the town is going to ignore it.
Also worth mentioning is wiggles explicitly "pressure" vote, which after playing in PYP:I wiggles knows are worthless, since there is no chance of dying of a pressure vote, the victim doesn't feel pressured. Wiggles was there for the postgame, where Ace spelled this out. I doubt he's forgotten so fast, so the logical conclusion is that he is doing this to blend in.
So, lets summarize.
1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear
2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking
3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same.
4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored.
That doesn't seem *that* compelling, right? Lets give him the benefit of the doubt and look at another post.
Before we do that though this jumped at me
On August 24 2011 09:26 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Meta is normally a very weak argument to make against someone, and the fact that you use incorrect meta that doesn't take context into example doesn't sit well with me either. But, since you seem to love it so much, then you should be aware that if I'm called scum on Day 1, then I'm town, and if I'm not, then I'm mafia.
Wiggles *knows* better than this, he's played with foolishness and other players who excel at using meta to analyze players. The fact that he says this which he and I both know is wrong, shows to me that he cares more about defending himself than letting facts be set straight. The fact that he has the gall to bring up shallow meta about how he always gets called out day 1, rather than beating my arguments on their own merits shows desperation and more than a little bit of anger . This isn't the town wiggles who rebuts accusations with a level head. I smell fear.
I found a true gem here.
On August 26 2011 04:32 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 03:52 Sevryn wrote:On August 26 2011 02:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On August 25 2011 23:41 Palmar wrote:On August 25 2011 23:36 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 23:15 Palmar wrote:On August 25 2011 23:07 Forumite wrote:On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right. Right... What's your reasoning to believe Wiggles is town? I don´t trust the primary argument made against him. Meta is usefull, sometimes, but I don´t think it´s applicable in finding a new kind of 3rd party with an unknown optimal play, especially as the meta argument focused specifically on his first post, which wanted to start a discussion more than anything. Since then wiggles has sometimes overreacted in his defences, there might be something there, but some players has said that Wiggles is hard to read, and I´m prepared to trust that Meta more than what Ferryman brought up. Then take a look at some of the things that have happened in the game. Wiggles decided to vote Eiii in his opening post. There is nothing wrong with randomly voting, but the fact that he felt the need to specify it was a pressure vote (through linking an awesome song by bowie/queen), shows inherent signs of guilt, and not wanting to stick his neck out. I don't even understand what the purpose of voting someone with the intent of only pressuring would be. At he point in time he threw down that vote it'd have been more sensical to go after one of the players that have posted, or to simply claim the vote on Eiii was to get rid of lurkers. Basically, that vote was because he was lurking, and because when he actually got around to posting, I wanted him to say something substantial and not just a one-liner before disappearing. The vote draws attention to him, and makes it harder to lurk unnoticed. As well, I was somewhat making fun of the random voting that was happening before my post, as people were all trying to pressure each other, and I was throwing my own in there as well. Now, he's starting to post more again, and should hopefully pick up his activity and actually discuss things in the last 24 hours before the lynch. I want to talk about this post, though: On August 25 2011 23:01 Palmar wrote:
Actually screw it.
I have a new strategy, I'll never vote for people I think are town. I'll actually force a no-lynch over it. I'm just not going to spam the thread away trying to convince people I'm right.
##Unvote tnkted
##Vote Mr. Wiggles Trying to force a no-lynch is pretty anti-town, as it gives mafia a free round of night kills without any extra information for town. (If mafia's smart, they're not going to hit town mislynch targets). I'm also interested in this post, because it comes 45 minutes or so before the deadline for the lynch, when tnkted was at 6 votes. This means that he was in danger of having an additional person vote for him, assuring his lynch. By unvoting him, you assure that it will take at least two people to make sure the lynch goes through, and so close to the deadline, it is much more likely that we will instead be forced to use one of our extensions, much better saved for further days. So, it seems likely to me, that either you and tnkted are scumbuddies and you wanted to save him from the lynch, or that only you yourself are scum, making what looks like a bold town statement in order to assure that the extension is used on Day 1. ##Unvote
##Vote Palmar Trying to save who you think is townie is not scum play as palmar proved in TL Mafia XLIV I will switch my vote to wiggles so we can get him lynched I still think ferryman made a very strong case against him. Cyber cheese needs to pick up his play. ##unvote
##vote Mr. Wiggles If you read, you can see that Palmar did not in fact try to save Tnkted, or at least, he did a very bad job of it. He did not adequately explain how Tnkted is town, and he did not push the idea that Tnkted was town in a convincing way. All he did, was remove the vote from Tnkted, ensuring that one of town's two extensions would be used on the worst possible day for it. He hasn't done anything to reinforce Tnkted's credibility, or to actually defend against the accusations of being scum, he just forced a no-lynch, which is anti-town by itself. Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 03:53 Sevryn wrote:On August 26 2011 03:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On August 26 2011 03:31 Palmar wrote:
I wanted to save him from the lynch.
That doesn't mean I'm scum, there is a logical leap you're taking right there. Could it possibly be that I'm a townie and I wanted to get another townie's head off the chopping block?
You intentionally avoid that scenario. I already explained my reasoning for thinking tnkted cannot be scum, you choose to ignore that to paint me red. This is basically you grasping at straws, knowing that you're against a wall.
I'm fine with it, I like a race between myself and you much better than a race between tnkted and cyber. And hopefully enough of town is reading the thread properly to see what's truly going on here. Your reasoning for why tnkted "cannot" be scum is that he posted "lololo". That's very weak evidence to call someone town such that they "cannot" be scum. The only other thing I see, is you saying "But look at how he's posting!", which isn't exactly revealing. This takes away any responsibility for a mislynch off your back, because you can point out that you thought he was town even if you vote him, while not doing much to actually defend tnkted from a lynch or convince others that he's town. Add on to that, that you did react oddly to tnkted's initial pressure (which makes me feel better about him being town when you flip scum), and that you've just been piggy-backing off of the Ferryman's analysis of me being the EA, also known as not mafia, and I think we've found our first red this game. Havn't we already established lynching the Eldritch Abomination is pro town? we get an extra day We do get an extra day, but it is an extra day much better used later into the game. Day 1 lynches are fairly inaccurate, unless scum makes a major mistake (Like I think Palmar did), and trying to kill the EA now just means that town will be launched into Day 1-2, where it will be exactly more of the same as what we've had for the last 48 hours. We get no new information, and no new leads, because Town will want to kill EA for the extra day, but scum will want to kill EA for the town cred, meaning that all scumhunting put into finding the EA is more or less a null tell. Trying to find the EA on day 1, means that he doesn't have to pretend to hunt for actual mafia, and makes it so that the extra lynch is used on the least optimal day, where town has the least leads and information. I'm town, but it doesn't even matter if you believe me, because: I'm town, so I want to kill scum If I'm EA, I want to kill mafia to buy town cred If I'm mafia, I want to kill EA on Day 1, as outlined above So, do you think I'm EA? Then I'm hunting scum. I know I'm town, and I'm trying to convince you of such, but it shouldn't even matter when you read my analysis, because the end goal is going to be the same. Look at it impartially, and forget that it was written by Mr. Wiggles, whom you think is EA, and then tell me what you think.
What does this post boil down to? Ferryman called me the EH, therefore behave as if I were such. Remember the point about milking my accusation? This is exactly what this post does, it takes it and uses the accusation I made to plant a false idea that lynching wiggles is not the optimal play, and that "wiggles cannot be scum". This is manipulation at its finest gentlemen, this is wiggles taking all possible outcomes and twisting them so that the only possible verdict keeps him from being lynched. Notice how he also uses this post to discredit anyone who accuses him of being the EH since "only mafia want to hunt the EH day 1". This post successfully exhibits *exactly* what scum is going to do when accused of being 3rd party.
Also, wiggle's accusation of Palmar is weak as hell. Wiggles and I both know there is no way Palmar stuck his neck out like that to save tnkted, unless palmar is town. Palmar usually has no issue busing his teammates, you really think he would force a no-lynch and become a focus of accusations if he were scum? Once again wiggles is trying to distract us from himself by "scumhunting" with one of the weakest cases I have ever seen.
Wiggles also shows a strange fascination with lurkers not present in his usual play. For example in XLII wiggles consistently voted and focused on lurkers, stuff like, while pushing around suspicion with questions. Note that wiggles was the GF that game.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 17 2011 10:50 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Well, I'm back now, before the flip too.
ILJ seems to have come back in full force, and I'm going to be taking my vote off of him. His recent posting makes me believe that he's likely to be green.
There's also been a new candidate, who's name has been raised as a potential lynch target, Hiro. However, I'm not sure that he's mafia either, based off the "slips" people are saying he's made. I don't think that he's scum, more so than pushing for policy lynching inactives, in a very badly worded way. GG still hasn't shown up, or made any contributory posts. That said, keeping people like him around, who will be impossible to read, isn't going to help us in this game.
So, instead of voting for two people I find likely to be green, I'm going to switch my vote to GG, who I see as more a 50-50 chance of being red, and who is impossible to read otherwise.
##Unvote: ilovejonn
##Vote: GrassGiraffe On June 18 2011 13:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
I'd be interested in hearing from DeMorcerf too. He was actually brought up as a potential lynch candidate on Day 1, along with GG, and Lazorbear, but after making a couple posts, all scrutiny was removed, and people seemed to forget about him, more or less. This seems a bit odd for me, considering people were going to lynch him for lurking, that he was forgotten after two posts, while still continuing to lurk. Like I said, I'm interested in hearing more from you. On June 16 2011 13:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
For reference, people who haven't posted/contributed since Day 1 post:
Impervious
Node
hiro protagonist
GGQ
grassgiraffe (Likely Modkill, no posts)
mig
LandenC (1 post in game)
Jacinto (1 post in game)
Lazorbear (1 post in game)
RebirthofLegend
This list actually makes me a little sad, because more than half of these people have played before, or are veterans, but we still have terrible activity.
Does that ring any bells? Has wiggles been pushing and pressuring lurkers as a means to try to bring the focus off of himself? (hint the answer is yes)
I could make this post a lot longer but most of what I said about wiggle's third party meta applies to his scum meta, in fact go back and read this post, replacing the words "third party" with "scum" and you'll get a pretty exact idea of what his meta is.
TL:DR
In summary wiggles is scum because he
1.) Avoided mentioning the obvious gape in my argument out of fear
2.) Proposes an anti-town plan to "discuss", demonstrating back tracking
3.) Tries to blend in and "discusses" something that allows scum to do the same.
4.) Proposes and plants the idea of crumbing, which is also mafia favored.
5.) Proceeds to milk my argument in an attempt to make sure he isn't lynched
6.) Goes after the "easy" target that are lurkers.
7.) Attacks Palmar, for doing something no sane scum would ever do.
Wiggles is anything but town. He might be the EH he might be mafia, he isn't a townie, that's for damn sure
So, to all those who concluded "lets ignore wiggles, he is obviously the EH", now would be a good time to move your vote over to him, because wiggles is anything *but* town at this point. My only doubt is that he might really be the EH rather than mafia, but either way, he certainly isn't town
+ Show Spoiler [ Mr.Wiggles] +
TheFerryman
PS. I'll probably be gone for the next 24 hours, lynch wiggles for me.
|
TheFerryman Returns!
First of all, apologies for being out, I've been without power, rained on, flooded, and generally unable to post for the last two days. I'll make up for that now, by giving you the third scum, first of all Wiggles is still scum he should, without a doubt, be our lynch tomorrow. If anyone needs me to restate my arguments or has a compelling reason why I might be wrong they should let me know, but JeeJee's behavior, pretty much seals the deal there, especially his mention that I am "tunneling" and his refusal to comment on my case on wiggles.
I should not need to say more on that topic, but if you want me to, feel free to ask.
However I would like to present my next scumsuspect, the candidate for the third anti-town member, chaos13, could we get an applause for this man? He has so far presented what to a casual observer might seem like a pro-town facade, but is in reality just scum trying to blend in. Lets present my case, point by point
chaos13: called out by dead scum
The post that first called my attention to chaos13 was made by none other than our esteemed, late, JeeJee when "trying to deflect the wagon off himself" as chaos will argue. This is the post in question. Why did it make me notice chaos13, a player I had till that point decided was town? Because JeeJee was doing damage control, when JeeJee's breadcrumb was caught, he knew, as did any good player, that he was fucked, there was literally no way to squirm out of that. Any smart scum in that situation would try to generate misinformation by "accusing" a scumbuddy, allowing the buddy to later get some credence by having been attacked by confirmed scum. This is damage control 101, and it immediately made me re-read everything chaos13 had posted so far in the thread, I also took the time to read up on his meta.
For now let us consider this a point against chaos13, the fact that confirmed scum accused him when they were almost certain to get lynched. Now, let us take a look at what chaos13 has actually posted so far.
Chaos13's Posts
There are a few posts by chaos13 that at first don't seem to stand out, but that, when looked at show scum behavior. It was this post that deepened my suspicions. Since its such a long post, I'm going to quote it in bits, and comment on the pieces that are relevant, while skipping those that are not.
On August 28 2011 23:02 chaos13 wrote:Warning - Wall of text on JeeJee. Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 01:49 JeeJee wrote:On August 24 2011 21:51 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
While I still think Ferryman is the horror from my arguement on the bottom of the last page, it makes more sense to go mafia hunting instead, so: NO IT DOESNT. the most optimal play for town is to lynch EA day one. second most optimal is to lynch scum. this screams distancing himself from ferryman / setup for a future scenario. If anyone needs more evidence that JeeJee is scum, here it is. He's discouraging mafia hunting and simultaneously puts on a show of mafia hunting. Since EA is a standalone third party role (doesn't know any other role/alignments, no other role alignments know EA) the only way that Cyber could be distancing himself from Ferryman is if they are mafia together. Just one sentence before he discourages people trying to find mafia, saying that apparently it's better to find the EA.
This is... *fascinating*. Let me ask you all a question, when as town have you ever felt the need to strengthen the accusation on someone who already has the vast majority of the votes? The correct answer is *never*, what is the point of making an accusation of someone who is already going to be lynched? Especially if there is no counter wagon forming? there is none. Unless of course your goal is to farm credit by affirming how you *knew* he was scum, and pointing to your "analysis". This is particularly relevant because its the exact inverse of what JeeJee did, its an attempt to set up a dichotomy that didn't exist, it is a distancing attempt. That is the second strike against chaos13. He actively tries to distance himself from JeeJee
Next chaos13 has the *kindness* of summarizing things we can already read, in an attempt to fluff up his post and make it seem longer and more pro-town, much the same way bad players or scum include every post by a player in their analysis to buff it up. This isn't necessarily scummy, just bad, I'm not going to hold it against him.
On August 28 2011 23:02 chaos13 wrote:This is where things get really interesting. Previous to this he has ignored almost everything else that's going on to focus on Cyber. He completely ignored the Wiggles/Ferryman situation, the chaos/tnkted sitiuation, and Palmar's craziness. Something about this set him off, however. Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum.
If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted. how is sevryn remotely related to tnkted? Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 08:31 JeeJee wrote:On August 26 2011 08:27 Jackal58 wrote:I'll buy that Ferryman. Makes more sense to me than the EH push. On August 26 2011 08:16 JeeJee wrote:On August 26 2011 08:00 Jackal58 wrote:
Cyber cheese is on the right track. Kind of. Psych visit Mr. Wiggles. If Psych dies we lynch Wiggles. Now let's continue hunting scum.
If tnkted is scum so is Palmar and Sevryn. Lynch tnkted. how is sevryn remotely related to tnkted? Subtle disconnects. + Show Spoiler +On August 25 2011 02:08 Sevryn wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 01:40 Cyber_Cheese wrote:
I believe it's in towns best interests to randomly lynch from the get-go, as I've stated a few times in now, so I've been following bandwagons to try and put a lynch through
If I happen to be lynched because of it, so be it, at least towns not wasting a chance to lynch its in scums best interest for town to randomly lynch and ignore scum slips while i was reading the thread i was going to do a write up on CyberCheese however tnkted beat me to it this guy self admitted to jumping on bandwagons. he plays the IDC if i get lynched card this guy is scum. ##vote Cyber_Cheese not sure if serious.. all that post shows is sevryn going "I was going to make a case against CC but tnkted did it already" i did pretty much the same thing, am I related now too? Something about Jackal touching on the subject of sevryn/tnkted makes JeeJee feel the need to jump to their defense. sevryn's defense specifically. Note that he said "How is sevryn remotely related to tnkted?", not "How is tnkted related to sevryn?" My questions at this point 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal? Question 2 has a simple answer. Question 1 is a little more confusing. JeeJee has had some interactions with sevryn, but nothing telling. The only thing notable about them is that he's very sparing in interacting with people. It was just Cyber until Jackal came in with this, and one post exchanged with sevryn at the very beginning of the game. I would like to go back to the two questions I had about sevryn, tnkted, and JeeJee. For reference those were 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? 2) Why does JeeJee feel the need to defend sevryn from Jackal? The simple answer to question 2 is - *drumroll* sevryn is JeeJee's scumbuddy. So back to 1) Why is it a bad thing for sevryn to be related to tnkted? Well we have to remember, tnkt was getting a lot of suspicion yesterday, and a lot of votes. It seemed likely that he would be lynched. The only sort of lynch it would be bad to be connected to is a red one. A mafia will never want to be connected to another mafia lynch, except to push it as hard as they can. My guess at mafia team right now. JeeJee sevryn tnkted Of these three, my thoughts have changed since yesterday and I am least sure of tnkted. I also have to examine sevryn's posts more thoroughly, but there is a clear connection between him and JeeJee.
Here I cut out the whole WIFOM crap about hitting Palmar at night and JeeJee's "suspicion's" of wiggles (read, distancing), because they are not relevant. Instead I am going to talk about a very basic concept of mafia, that is associations between players, and more specifically how mafia behave. Mafia avoid talking about other mafia players, they feel guilty and want to avoid incriminating their partners in crime by not talking about them when they can possibly avoid it. In fact I became suspicious of JeeJee, because he didn't comment on wiggles, while he was willing to comment on Cheese, and on breadcrumbs, and to a lesser extent, Syvern. In fact, the fact that he ignored both wiggles and the Palmar/chaos discussion, makes me almost sure of these two reads.
I think tnkted is town, and JeeJee was trying to get a link between Syvern and tnkted by "discrediting" jackals, link, notice how he doesn't provide any arguments, just bashes it, that's one way of calling attention to a link without being associated with it. chaos13, is simply carrying this idea forward, he is pushing a simplistic approach to catch mafia, he is insisting that because JeeJee defended someone, the person he defended must be scum. this is simplistic not only simplistic, but its downright pushing a bad lynch.
Reading over past games, chaos13 is not afraid to push bad lynches in fact its one of the reasons why he is good scum, he is great at providing bs analysis to get somewhat scummy players who are not scum lynched.
A side by side comparison of a post from another game where chaos13 was scum and a post this game. Here is his accusation of Munk-E from mafia XLII, where chaos13 was scum
+ Show Spoiler +On August 06 2011 13:09 chaos13 wrote:So, Munk-E, our resident lurker. He has a grand total of seven - that's right, SEVEN posts in the game up to date. Lurking is defined as anti-town by every player of mafia, and this guy is giving a top-level course in it right now. He was almost modkilled for his lack of posting. Post #1+ Show Spoiler +On August 02 2011 11:07 Munk-E wrote:
But player x is protected in this case, and they wouldn't shoot player Y! They'd shoot player Z because shooting Y would give away the role and if x was the obvious one to protect, they'd assume he was protected.
That being said I highly doubt there are 2 medics anyways so if this situation does arise, I would be VERY suspicious of both of them.
As for the plan, I'm quite worried about it. We would have a confirmed townie, which could be nice IF he could manage to efficiently manage the entire game. It seems a bit risky if they're not very good, they might screw it up and reveal roles. Also, the medic would be tied to defending this one person the entire time no matter what. If someone shows they are DT or vigi, then the mafia will just shoot both if we haven't killed 2 by then. In the mean time, the mafia could just kill him outright, or pick 2 people they KNOW won't be protected, and it's entirely up to them. If they do kill him, then we have (likely) 2 dead townies, and be back to square 1! No confirmed townie, just a dead guy, and the guy he killed.I kind of think that people are hoping he does hit a Mafia, but I really don't see the logic in this plan. It's more likely he'll hit someone important on our team than a mafia.
In the end, i suppose it's entirely up to the dayvigi if the plan goes through, but it just seems highly illogical to me. This post is, obviously, addressing sandroba's plan. The majority of it is logical, makes sense, and doesn't seem to push a mafia agenda really. One thing doesn't sit will with me, however, and that is where he casts suspicion on multiple medic claims. At this point, he shouldn't have a clue as to the setup. It's as if he is setting town up for something that will come later, which would most likely be the mafia GF (JeeJee, anyone?) claiming medic. The mafia team can then push for a lynch on the real medic with support from town, if this seed planted by Munk-E grew at all. Post #2+ Show Spoiler +On August 03 2011 07:21 Munk-E wrote:Below is some analysis of varpulis' posts i'll do more people later. Show nested quote +Alright guys, it's game on. I'd like to start with a suggestion. It's very basic, but very vital.
Vig's, be you day or night, holster your gun and try to ignore the itch of your trigger finger. This holds true in every game, but it's especially important in this one. Look at the role list, and see how much kp we potentially have in the game. Every vig role has two shots, half of them can shoot during the day. That's a lot of kp that will be a lot more useful later on.
Dayvigs: If you must shoot, claim and let us discuss. If you're willing to shoot, make sure that you've got approval from the town. Gut shots are wrong as often as they're right.
Hatters: You guys are special, because even if the scumbag mafia doesn't kill you, your bob-ombs will still go off. You also can't move them, so I don't think it's a smart idea to place them from the get go. Wait a day/night cycle, at least. It's for the good of everybody.
With that said, let's get to the game and kill us some scum. As an aside, i'm currently very dissapointed that Kurumi didn't give me my favorite class, though I guess it can't be helped, he wasn't in the game anyways. Here he says to not shoot day 1, unless you want to that is, then just reveal your plan forcing you to shoot anyways because you're gonna die, because you revealed your role. I don't see his opinion, because he keeps changing it in this post. at the beginning he says to not shoot, as always and it is especially important in this game, followed by him saying it's okay for dayvigs to shoot. Furthermore he tells them to claim before shooting! Claiming is a death sentence, and it means they'd have to shoot to take people down with them, because they're gonna die anyway. As an aside, does anyone know what his favorite role is? Show nested quote +My only real qualm about the plan is the possibility of 2 dead townies day 1, but I don't see a huge problem with setting up a town circle around a confirmed dayvig.
People shouldn't be expecting shitloads of blues though. If we have a medic, which we might not, (21 players, remember) they will be tied up making sure the only confirmed player doesn't kick the bucket.
Nothing should be shared in IRC that would not be shared in thread, by the way. If our confirmed town wants to direct blues or if people want to claim to him, do it in PMs, for the love of god, and don't start talking in thread or irc like you're a confirmed blue.
The only one who should know is the confirmed townie. Information leaks kills blues in PM games.
Should we use the plan, I suggest a very simple system: vote normally. Whoever has the most votes dies. So, here he fully supports the plan again despite his own extra important rule of not shooting day 1. He first says no shooting, then says maybe IF you make sure your going to get yourself killed, and finally now he's all for it! Show nested quote +Anybody who is publicly known to be controlling the blues/leading the town is going to get shot eventually, especially if they've got kp.
I'll eat my hat if we've got more than 1 medic in a 20 player game. Here he will eat his hat if his plan that he loves so much which goes against his extra important rule actually works... Show nested quote +hmm, it's a good point actually.
A serious question: Do you guys think we'll have a better chance of killing scum if we do this day 1?
If we can kill scum it's worth it (durr) but otherwise I have a safer suggestion:
Why don't we wait until there are only 2 mafia left. That way they can't doublestack and we don't lose a blue role night 1. this is after being asked why he likes the plan after he gave his own piece of evidence against it (above)! He gives no answer. Instead, he reverts to a compromise of his beloved plan. and no varpulis, it's a 20% chance. I'm not willing to take that risk, especially because it's roughly the same odds we'll hit a blue. Show nested quote +I'm fairly sure that i'm not scum, unless I have a serious problem with reading pms.
RedFF I'm not so sure on. I'm leaning scum because he started off his "no plan" campaign without evidence or an argument, and then just picked up DrH's and copied it, it seems.
That said, I don't disagree with DrH. Our confirmed townie will be dead night 1, and we'll be back to square one, possibly with 2 dead townies. Again, the plan is really good, but only if we wait for mafia to not have enough kp to override the medic protect we will most likely be able to slap on the confirmed townie.
To address Mig's accusation: In irc sandroba didn't explain his plan entirely. I read it as "double lynch day 1" period. That in itself is very bad. The good part of the plan is the confirmed townie. When he posted and explained that point, It sounded good.
Then I realized that mafia can double stack and just kill the confirmed townie, it sounded bad again, until i figured out a solution.
Is there a real reason that we need to use the plan right now? With patience, it will work better, i guarantee. Here his is accusing redff for taking the position of the argument HE'S taking! (Maybe he lost track by now!) It seems like he's just trying to accuse someone for the sake of accusing! Wishy-washy doesn't even begin to explain this. He just won't make up his mind! While I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum, it is VERY suspicious. Unfortunately however, I don't think it's possible to brand him as scum from JUST this. but he's certainly quite possibly scum. Note that here he promises more analysis later. I would like to bring everyone's attention to the very last paragraph of this. Paraphrased: "Varp is scum because he's wishy washy. This doesn't make him scum for sure, but it's really suspicious. However, I can't call him scum from this, but he's possible scum." This is a clear bus on a teammate, and he's labeling varp scum for the same behavior he is displaying. Post #3+ Show Spoiler +On August 04 2011 03:53 Munk-E wrote:K here's mig's portfolio analyzed. Show nested quote +I agree with san's plan. The main benefits of the double lynch are 1) extra information right away. 2) everyone can claim to a confirmed townie so that townie can organize the blues for n1.
And forcing all the blues to claim to the day vig puts the mafia in a shitty situation. Either A) they can not claim at all to him and then he can direct the other vigs to just shoot into the much smaller pool of vanilla townies or B) they can risk trying to claim blue roles and outing themselves because the # of roles is suspicious, for example if 3 vets claimed. Killing for "Information" is just plain stupid. That's saying a random lynch is a good idea! 1 night of well organized night actions is not worth it at all. I have stated my ideas on this plan before, and to me it seems the only people for it would be scum, or, frankly, dumb people. The mafia would all claim scout, because it would be to risky to claim anything else. and after night 1, no one knows each other's roles again. He can't pm them to all the other blues, just IN CASE one of the mafia did claim a blue role. Enough about that though. He also says then to shoot at the smaller batch because there would be about 16 people which is less. So great, we take a 20% chance of hitting a mafia followed immediately by a MAXIMUM of a 25% chance. by the end of night 1 we'd be likely 4 townies down depending on our lynch. Show nested quote +On August 02 2011 23:52 Mig wrote:Varpulis looks the most scummy to me so far. Initially in IRC he was extremely against sandroba's plan.
[14:31] <Varpulis> 24 hours in? no no no no.
[14:32] <youngminii> i've got a solution: shoot bc AND sand
[14:32] <syllogism> 24h isnt enough but otherwise it's not awful
[14:32] <Varpulis> wait until day 2 at the least.
[14:33] <Varpulis> how often does the day 1 lynch hit scum? not so often. A day 1 double lynch is a HORRIBLE idea
However once he posts in the thread his opinion goes from strong to neutral and wishy washy. His posts contributed nothing and were extremely bland/common advice. Along with that he completely misinterprets trotske's post here to cast a very weak Fos on him. On August 02 2011 09:56 Varpulis wrote:On August 02 2011 09:46 Trotske wrote:
If you use the sniper as a second lynch but don't have him claim until he is out of kills he can't get taken out until he is just a normal townie.
And since the sniper would be acting on the towns behalf it would show you who was pushing really hard for the vig shot on a townie. and let you reexamine what the townie who got shot had said because he was now a confirmed townie. Wait wait wait You're promoting the a plan where vigs just shoot without claiming, and kill townies for information. FoS. So basically this game Varp has promised some pro town ideas while not actually contributing anything to the town. Has strong opinions in IRC when people aren't around but is afraid to take a strong stance in the thread. And instead of making a real case against anyone he casts a very weak suspicion on trotske with poor reasoning. ##Vote Varpulis Here mig votes for varp for being wishy washy. That might be fine except he's against him for saying the plan where we take a random shot without knowing is bad. obviously this is bad, and he uses this quote to accuse him? I don't see why he would unless he's trying to put pressure on him for being against this plan! It doesn't make sense to me, and frankly seems scummy. Show nested quote +JeeJee you are correct on this point but what exactly does pointing it out contribute? You have 2 posts and both of them while correct are bland and useless. You commented on pressure votes and neglected to comment on whether you actually thought varp was scummy or not.
Who do you think is scum? What do you think about the 2 leading candidates varp/red? He seems VERY eager to get everyone's opinion on everyone, he PMed me asking my opinion on chaos and varp, to which i responded blandly and generically. It seems to me like he is trying to find out who's most likely to be lynched in the future so he can defend them if necessary. I don't see why a townie would need to know everyone's opinion on everyone. Show nested quote +On a side note I find it strange when people say they aren't suspicious of anyone, I am not sure if it makes you scummy or lazy town. Mafia is a game where everyone is guilty until proven innocent. 3 pages in and I can find reasons to suspect half the town.
So even with all your experience JeeJee you can't find anyone who stands out as scummy so far? Really? He seems to be trying to pressure G.G. here. Not to accuse him of potentially being scum, but to try to get his opinion on people. He seems like his only here to find out our opinions on each other! The only reasons I can think of for this would be to start a civil war between townies or try to manipulate votes. Both seem very scummy. Show nested quote +I have a pretty simple defense. People should actually read my posts. Where have I backed down after putting pressure on people? What mafia objectives have I pushed? Look at the questions I asked varp and JeeJee. Was I trying to slander them or cast suspicion on them to look like I was fake contributing? Or was I asking legitimate questions that the town should be asking.
The town has almost no activity and I am actively trying to get people to post in IRC. What a scummy thing for me to do! I have pmd half the people in town asking them for their opinions. And I have no problem with giving my opinions on people. No one has to force me to contribute.
So just ask yourself if my play is helping the town or helping mafia. If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me.
I have more posts than almost anyone in the thread lol? Including writing the most coherent case against Varp. Find someone who has made a stronger case than that in this thread. Maybe this I didn't read the rules, but I'm pretty sure high post count =/= town. This is your only defense so far and it's not legitimate at all. I don't see why activity is a "town" thing to do. and why lurking is a mafia thing really, especially if being a lurker makes them suspected as being mafia. (Meta, huh?) Anyway, i might vote for him depending on if i think lucidity is more scummy or not. (P.S. Saying "If you think I am helping mafia feel free to lynch me." is more of an invitation than a defense.) This analysis came almost a full 24 hours after he promised it. Takes time to figure out how to call a town player scum, doesn't it? To begin with, this is an aggressive analysis against a player who has arguably been one of the most pro-town voices in the thread. After all, Mig called varp out before anyone else and was the driving force behind his lynch. Take a look at the second paragraph of this analysis. He calls Mig out for voting Varp on the reason that he thought he was scum for being wishy washy. Remember that analysis of Varp? Main point was that he was wishy washy. Contradiction! Hypocrisy! Scum! Next, he blames varp for PM'ing people and discussing stuff with them. lol. Then he says he responded blandly and generically. LOL. Then he says he doesn't see how being active is a town trait. LMAO This is so scummy it's almost funny. Post #4Show nested quote +On August 04 2011 05:42 Munk-E wrote:On August 04 2011 04:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
MIG isn't even on the docket to get lynched right now, why would you analyze a player a few hours before the lynch who isn't going to get lynched? He was before I went to bed yesterday, when I started. All I can really say is +1 to BC. Makes absolutely no sense. Post #5+ Show Spoiler +On August 04 2011 06:01 Munk-E wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 07:34 Lucidity wrote:I think you missed one of Varpulis' important posts Munk-E: On August 03 2011 03:23 Varpulis wrote:On August 03 2011 02:43 Mig wrote:
Varp every post you make screams wishy washy to me. Where is the confident Varpulis I have played with in the past? Every opinion you give you list the pros and cons and then you end up taking a pretty neutral stance. I haven't seen you have a strong opinion of anything yet.
If you had to vote for someone right now who would it be for and why? Do you find anyone besides red scummy? I got called out for wishy washiness in PTP (day 1) as well. Day 1 nothing is solid, there's rarely anything to base arguments off of until late in the day, and I'm usually focused on proving my activity, not calling people scum. I haven't taken a stance because I don't have a really strong feeling about anybody yet. By the way, if we're going ahead with the plan, could we have a soldier/sniper claim? If there are none we need to reevaluate. Yeah this is pretty important. Why on earth does he want soldiers to claim? It would FORCE them to sacrifice themselves for a random shot? He's so all over the plan, it makes me think that at first his scum buddies tried to endorse the plan, but when it was seen as bad, they backed off. He tried to make it continue in a way that couldn't POSSIBLY be beneficial and would help mafia a LOT. For some reason he seems to think activity is a reason that you're not scum! I never have and likely never will see the logic behind this. It seems like a scum's way of not having to post anything of value, yet still be considered a townie. For these reasons, i would like to ##vote Varpulis Took a while to actually get around to a vote, especially after that big analysis on him that was done before. Reluctant to bus your scumbuddy, eh? Post #6+ Show Spoiler +On August 04 2011 06:33 Munk-E wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2011 06:07 youngminii wrote:
wtf
Munk-E you just posted a giant post-by-post analysis of Mig concluding with "I'm going to either vote for Varp or Lucid"
Now you take Lucid's post against Varp, something that's been rehashed a hundred times already, and use that to vote for him?
Clear bus imo. Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 06:28 youngminii wrote:
nah i was just kidding
Anyway, I'd rather Mig die than Lucidity/Varpulis. I dunno, the latter two just seem so.. Normal? While Mig is screaming "I'M SCUM".
Maybe it's just me. -____- you're voting for varp as well. The reason I quoted lucid was because he mentioned how I forgot that post. Which I did. It's an important post. My analysis of him before I mention his wishy washyness and how he tried this once. The fact that he tried it again is big! It says that he really wants them to claim and it wasn't a stupid idea he had for a minute. TBH, It would have been a toss up between varp and lucid for me, but I haven't done proper analysis of lucid, so voting for him would look VERY suspicious. I think both are scum anyway. You think both are scum, and yet you think it would look suspicious to vote for lucid? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Post #7+ Show Spoiler +On August 05 2011 07:58 Munk-E wrote:Lucidity analysis! Show nested quote +
So we've already found 2 scum in redFF and DoctorHelvetica who are opposing the plan without any real reasons? Good stuff.
A confirmed townie coordinating blues is brilliant. The only problem I can see is if scum impersonates medics. That could give away blue roles/leave our soldier vulnerable. Solution? Just have all medics protect the soldier for night 1. 1 Night of coordinated abilities is quite powerful and we'll have more info on Day 2.
this first post is very VERY for the plan to the point that he immediately calls scum on people for it. They both later attacked him for this, and Redff even voted to lynch him. I think he is WAY to for the plan here without even considering the consequences. It seems scummy to me to pressure people that disagree with you. Show nested quote +On August 02 2011 08:29 Lucidity wrote:On August 02 2011 08:16 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
if you read my posts i provided reasons
1. we dont know if there are more than 1 doctor which is kinda important
2. mafia can stack hits to kill the vig
3. vig could shoot doctor ruining everything
4. vig will probably hit town its rare you get a mafia on day 1 much less a successful day 1 vig
here ar emore reasons i havent provided yet
5. mafia can use this to keep town focused on the blue network/suspicious of other peoples claims and put attention on the vig and off of post analysis which is what wins games for town
what do you consider a real reason it would be nice if instead of unconditional instant support for someone elses plan which is mildly suspicious you read my posts and if my reasons aren't good enough at least say why instead of just saying "youre scum" lol
"we've already found 2 scum" its day 1 dont be ridiculous 1. Medics are basically the only problem I see at the moment. I don't think that qualifies as a reason to instantly discard the plan. 2. Having Mafia stack hits reduces their KP, which isn't a bad thing. We'll still have no overlaps on Night 1 from blues. 3. What? 4. That's the case on Day 2 as well. On August 02 2011 07:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On August 02 2011 07:26 Mig wrote:
No just tell the vigs who to hit, medics who to protect, dts who to check. All he has to do is make sure nobody is overlapping or shooting each other. As long as the day vig doesn't reveal anything else mafia isn't going to gain very much information from it. if this happens which i hope it doesnt i really hope you're not suggesting he openly tells the blues what to do in irc/thread Another terrible attempt to stop the plan. Why would he be suggesting that? Here DH is defending himself from lucidity's aggressiveness quite well, however he just continues to press the issue. He is still calling scum for having a different opinion here. He would give an arm and a leg for this plan it seems at this point. Show nested quote +On August 02 2011 09:01 Lucidity wrote:On August 02 2011 08:46 redFF wrote:
...lol post the irc chat please, that is not a decent reason. Regardless, have any of you guys a scum saying he's a vig and figuring out who the other shots are at? or a scum saying he's a medic and finding out who's protecting who? I've played games where everyone has claimed to a "confirmed townie" and scum have raped and taken advantage of this, so please don't tell me the plan is faultless. If a vig is willing to use his shot as a lynch then it's ok. But I'm really not sure that day 1 is the best time to have a double lynch. Yeah the day when we have the least information and most likely to lynch town is when we should double lynch!
There, that's my opinion if you think it's scummy then vote me. Draz post what was scummy in the irc chat please. How will he figure out who the other vig shots are aimed at? How will a fake medic find out who the other medics are protecting? Who said the plan is faultless? I think I'll take your advice and vote for you! ##vote redFF Here he votes for redFF (But doesn't actually vote for him). I find it strange that he's THIS passionate this early on in the game! I mean seriously WTF? He is given A LOT of reasons why the plan is dumb, but he refuses to hear it! He just keeps accusing! Show nested quote +Haha, I guess I was still in the Asylum mindset with mass blue everywhere - somehow thought that all 7 blue roles listed would be in the game. ~4 blues make sense and we're very unlikely to have 2 medics in that, so a plan to coordinate them this early isn't actually that great.
I think the only time that we should be claiming is if Mafia only have 1 KP left or if a Day Vig hits a Vet, leaving us with 2 confirmed townies. One of them will survive the night and be able to pass on info~
redFF, forever RED? By this point, most people were against the plan. Yeah... I'm not sure how much I buy that defense of "Oops, klutzy me! I thought there'd be more medics!" as an excuse to completely change his mind from "This plan is so good that everyone against it is obviously scum" to. "This plan is stupid!" This is the scummiest post I think he's made. I mean it would be hard to make that transition, and it losing popularity requires you to if your against it so hard and you want to be in the majority. and why would you want to be in the majority so bad? If you're scum. Show nested quote +On August 03 2011 04:49 Lucidity wrote:On August 03 2011 03:23 Varpulis wrote:On August 03 2011 02:43 Mig wrote:
Varp every post you make screams wishy washy to me. Where is the confident Varpulis I have played with in the past? Every opinion you give you list the pros and cons and then you end up taking a pretty neutral stance. I haven't seen you have a strong opinion of anything yet.
If you had to vote for someone right now who would it be for and why? Do you find anyone besides red scummy? I got called out for wishy washiness in PTP (day 1) as well. Day 1 nothing is solid, there's rarely anything to base arguments off of until late in the day, and I'm usually focused on proving my activity, not calling people scum.[/b] I haven't taken a stance because I don't have a really strong feeling about anybody yet. By the way, if we're going ahead with the plan, could we have a soldier/sniper claim? If there are none we need to reevaluate. Lol dude wtf? I'm struggling to find any non-scum motive for wanting such a claim. Could you provide me with one? And you're focused on maintaining your appearance as an active townie instead of hunting scum? Good stuff.
Mig's going crazy at people for not providing great posts on IRC, yet he's not doing what he's hounding others to do? Scum often employ such strategies. What's the dealio, yo? This post astonished me. At first i thought since he voted for varp after it was the bandwagony thing to do. However, if you look at the time, at the time of this post Varp only had 2 votes for him from a while ago. This post sort of STARTS the bandwagon on varp! I don't know if this was intentional or not, but WTF! Up until now I was sure lucidity was scum, but this makes me wonder! Show nested quote +
If it's such a waste of time why are you dedicating any time at all to it anymore? I don't think there has been serious majority support for the plan for long now, so there's no reason for you to talk about it. Every Day 1 has to start in some useless way before there's something to discuss. Why not use the posts that have been generated by this plan to start some discussion which you think might be useful?
Here he is completely against the plan now. He was so for it at first and now is completely against it. He even states that no one is for it anymore. His backing of the plan is directly proportional to it's overall popularity. He just wants to blend in, like a chameleon that works for the mafia. In the end, I just don't know! He's VERY scummy with his bandwagon hopping when it comes to the plan, and sure he only voted varp after the bandwagon was rolling, but he was in second and might have done that to avoid being lynched, not to seem inconspicuous.if varp had flipped town, i would think he'd definitely be mafia, but he started a bandwagon on varp, it may be accidental for all i know and he was just trying to distance himself, but it seems strange that he would do this. P.S. sorry about not talking at night i didn't know it was a rule. This analysis is relatively weak, and what do we get at the end of it? A complete inconclusive. A repeat of his "Yeah, could be, but I don't know". Serious scum right here. Conclusion: Munk-E is Mafia
We take him out tonight or tomorrow without hesitation.
Does a post like that look familiar, have we seen one like it in the past?
+ Show Spoiler +On August 25 2011 12:07 chaos13 wrote:
tnkted
On August 24 2011 00:57 tnkted wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 00:55 Palmar wrote:On August 24 2011 00:46 tnkted wrote:On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote:
I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved. Oh!? You have a win condition other than winning with town? derp. lololo #vote palmar
To begin with, we have him attacking an apparent scum slip by Palmar. Anyone with eyes can see that his slip was intended as a joke post, but apparently that's worth a vote. ...and a crumb is worth an unvote. Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 01:25 tnkted wrote:
Oh wait, the PMs are posted in the OP.
NEVERMIND
##vote palmar And then a realization that it could have been a faked crumb is worth voting again. Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 09:45 tnkted wrote:
Ferryman, if you are new, then welcome to mafia! You have a bright future here, and if you're town mafia will probably want to hit you n1.
In this case though, I think you might be right but lynching palmar is a better move here. Sir Jesse Wiggles ESQ (duke of yorkshire) is a notoriously difficult person to read at the best of times because he plays so close to the chest, and I've written my share of analysis on him and been wrong every time.
That being said, your evidence makes a lot of sense, and if we don't have any other leads tomorrow I'd be totally happy gettin' wiggy wit' it. But right now, palmar is a better lynch because
A) His response to the FOS has been very scummy
B) The slip thing I mentioned earlier
C) It's day 1 so if I'm wrong, it's not THAT big of a deal.
Keep your eye on Wiggles and if you find anything else we'll act on it. For now though, Palmar is scummier than wiggles and I'd rather lynch him,
Just some advice: the first post you posted felt to me like more of a pressure post (ie it wasn't very convincing) but the second one (the meta one) was much more convincing (wiggles rather comprehensive response notwithstanding). Here is where tnkted really begins to show his scumminess. The first paragraph can be ignored. Paragraph #2 contains a multitude of mafia traits. To begin with, he agrees with Ferryman's position, but still feels that Palmar is a better lynch. Why? Because Wiggles is tough to get a read on. This is a cautious wishy-washy stance. He allows an excuse for being wrong, and is stuck on tunnel-mode on Palmar, because that is a perfect cover for mafia to hide under. Paragraph 3\ABC Par. 3 supports the wishy-washy scum stance seen earlier. The ABC's display a terribly weak case against Palmar. He states that Palmar's response to being accused was very scummy, but fails to explain how. Even a general statement of how it was scummy would be better, but there is absolutely nothing here. Then back to the "slip", and finally closing with a careless attitude towards lynching town. We should never want to lynch town. Day 1 is just as or more important than any other day, because if we can lessen their numbers now, they have fewer kills on N1 and beyond. Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 23:28 tnkted wrote:Okay, lets talk about Navillus and Palmar. This is the reason why some people were suspecting Narvillus: On August 24 2011 00:20 Navillus wrote:
Dammit I need to role something more interesting than townie one of these days... anyway, I've never played a mini before so I'm very open to any mini-specific advice anyone has. versus this: On August 24 2011 00:29 Palmar wrote:
I have discarded my win condition, my sole object this game will be to convince Jackal I'm town, seeing as it's a feat I've never achieved. Which one of those seems scummier to you? To me, the second comment seems scummier by far. Now, I'd be willing to believe that it was a joke if it wasn't for Palmar's response: On August 24 2011 01:12 Palmar wrote:
Right.
This is not what happened. My win condition is to eliminate all threats to town. I did not slip, you're trying to manufacture evidence out of something that doesn't exist. My joke can't even be shrugged off as bad town play because nothing exists in it that would indicate I'm not town. This is a very sullen, angry response. Rather than joke around with my pressure and OMGUS, like Narvillus's did: On August 24 2011 01:29 Navillus wrote:
##Vote: Jackal58
OMGUS Narvillus wasn't worried about the pressure because he was having fun and joking around; he knew he was innocent and he knew that jackal thought he was innocent. Meanwhile, Palmar's FIRST INSTINCT upon being accused was to lash out. his FIRST INSTINCT is to accuse me of manufacturing evidence. Is that a reasonable response? I sure don't think it is. So that's my case for accusing palmar. You can find it convincing, or you can find it unconvincing, I'm not really concerned about it. Much of what I just outlined happened in my head unconciously and I'm sort of explaining my scumdar pings after the fact, if that makes any sense. So according to tnkted his vote on Palmar was a joke, and he didn't think it was actually a slip. He states that Palmar actually defending himself was scummy because a player like Navillus was relaxed and joked around, because the vote on him wasn't serious. Comparing these two gives a solid impression that tnkted's vote on Palmar was not intended to be serious, which means that only Palmar's reaction to it should have been used as evidence. As can be seen by the previous post I quoted, however, tnkted is still using it as proof that Palmar is mafia, still considering it a scum slip. That's a rather large hole in his argument I'd say. Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 09:51 tnkted wrote:
Ok, several things are happening right now that need to stop.
1. Wifom. Go google 'wine in front of me' if you don't understand what this is. The post I just quoted was distilled seven times from fruit of the wifom bush, and if you were to drink it you'd get so drunk on overthought you'd end up throwing up all over qatol and get yourself banned.
2. Talk about 'taking responsibility for the lynch'. No, that's stupid, thats not how days generally work. Whoever gets lynched d1 gets lynched because the best case was made against them. The people who pushed that lynch the hardest aren't 'responsible' anymore than the people that they convinced. The arguement was just convincing. That's it.
If we lynch cyber_cheese, tomorrow I might be the one that's most to blame, but I'm no more responsible and it doesn't make me any scummier if he does flip green. There are thousands of townies that have pushed a wrong read and got somebody innocent lynched; the fact that they were SURE that their target is town doesn't make them scum, it just makes them wrong. That shit happens in mafia.
3. The same principle applies for things like 'x defended y and y flipped mafia so x must also be mafia'. This is erronious thinking; there's nothing stopping mafia from defending certain townies to gain town cred. Mafia doesn't care who gets lynched as long as its not one of them, and often times mafia will try to bus their own teammates to get town cred. Town credit is more important to mafia than almost anything else, because it's a coin that can be spent at lylo for a free win. 1. Nothing scummy about this content. Nothing town either. 2. In this section of his post, tnkted wants to remove responsibility from players for mislynches. That is a ridiculously scummy attitude. The people who pushed the lynch DO have to be responsible for it, otherwise mafia can get away with coming up with a case on a slightly scummy townie and get a mislynch every day, and according to you get away with it scot-free. If you're pushing for someone's lynch and they flip green, then you do get a bit scummier for it. If it happens consistently we really need to take a look at you and sort things out. 3. Wrong again. You want to take away the only tool we have for linking mafia to each other. When somebody flips red, or green for that matter, we look back at who they interacted with and how they interacted with them. You're pushing a seriously mafia agenda here. Responsibility is key in this game, because mafia without responsibility don't have to worry about anything. tnkted is mafia.
Oh, yes we have. Look at how similar these two posts are, how focused and convinced, not a shadow of doubt in the accusations. Full conviction, ownership, all of these *not* scum signs, yet despite it he is scum. What that means is we cannot use chaos13's tone as a determinant. Lets look at the differences between his accusation of munk-e in XLII and his accuastion of GMarshal in PTP1, where our good friend chaos13 was town
+ Show Spoiler +On June 01 2011 23:05 chaos13 wrote:I am going to be voting for GMarshal. Show nested quote +On May 31 2011 05:25 GMarshal wrote:
Mataza has the ability to stick his foot in his mouth with ease, as he proved in SNMMIII, he also has a penchant for fake claiming roles, e.g. he considered claiming cop day 1 in SNMMIII, I'm just ignoring his statements about his role for now.
Also lets try to avoid a claim this early in the game, yes?
There was minimal pressure on Mataza, and there really wasn't any chance of him actually being chosen as the lynch for today based just on what was going on at the beginning of the thread. If GMarshal flips red, we can rest assured that Mataza is red as well. I see no reason for a townie to so quickly move to defending someone they should be suspicious of. Just because he played strangely in one game doesn't mean he will in another. So far Mataza's posting seems fairly solid to me. Show nested quote +On May 31 2011 06:01 GMarshal wrote:On May 31 2011 05:59 sandroba wrote:
EBWODP: That should have read we policy lynch ANYONE who claims without valuable information or lies about their role. So, kind of what happened to tnkted when he claimed bulletproof in Sleeper Cell. I like LAL, but we do *not* policy lynch as policy lynches keep us from gaining valuable information. We policy vigi shot. So if someone lies we just ignore them and let someone toss a kp at them at night. I don't really see where a townie would be coming from with this. A mafia member would definitely want information/policy vigi shots rather than successful scum hits. What is even better about this post from a mafia perspective is that if they are called out on it, they can pass it off as a bad townie plan. However, many people have stated that GMarshal is a good player, and I do not think he would make a plan like this without understanding exactly how it works. Show nested quote +On June 01 2011 07:29 GMarshal wrote:
Kurumi, if you keep spamming useless shit I'll make sure you eat a nice bullet later.
@People focusing on redFF's claim. Ignore the claim itself and focus on the reasoning behind it, remember if he is telling the truth about his role or lying is irrelevant.
Oh, since it seems like I'm not going to get much from torte
##Unvote
##Vote: Barundar
Barundar has all of one post. This is not an acceptable level of contribution.
@Kenpachi, you said that its too early to be pressuring inactives/lurkers. Its never to early to kill lurkers. If you dont deal with them early you have to deal with them later. I really don't know what to think of this post. I know Kurumi has been contributing well now, and that at the time of this post he was discussing the pros/cons of roleclaims and potential scenarios in which it could be useful. GMarshal also claims here (I think?). The middle of this post seems rather average, and the last bit is questionable again. Remember that lurkers can just as easily be town as scum. What we really want to be doing is sifting through the active players looking for scum. With lurkers, there is no way to differentiate between lurking town and lurking scum. The active players have given us more than enough to go on though. All in all, this is an extremely weak post for a townie, and a passable one for a mafia. Show nested quote +On June 01 2011 07:38 GMarshal wrote:On June 01 2011 07:35 Mataza wrote:
tl;du:
Your plan prevents something from happening that won´t happen unless your plan was done already.
You say w/out your plan mafia can claim any role they want. But they can´t unless they somehow find out who created their roles. And right now your plan reveals exactly that. We are done discussing a plan that will not be put into place. Both sides have been pretty clearly laid out. Instead answer these questions. 1.) If you were a vigilante who would you shoot tonight 2.) if you were a kingmaker who would you make king tomorrow 3.) what is your favorite colour 4.) Of all the players with more than ten posts in the game at the moment, which seem the scummiest? At first I saw nothing wrong with this post, and even answered it myself. Then someone explained how it is scummy. It goes something like this 1. Mafia will avoid wasting a shot on that player if they are town. If they are mafia they will kill the player who said it. 2. Mafia will be inclined to kill this player. 3. Wat? Doesn't make any sense for a townie to ask this unless it is part of their role, which I really really doubt. 4. This one is the most pro-town question, but can also work for mafia. If Town: -Gives more input -Creates mores discussion and analysis If Mafia: -Gives mafia team an idea on who they can push for a lynch -Gives mafia team an idea if any of their players are standing out The rest of his posts have been relatively useless. They created some minor discussion without actually forcing GM to contribute. As for votes, he has gone from Torte de Lini to Barundar, both times stating it is a pressure vote, but neither time trying to get other people to help him pressure vote. Why is this scummy? Look at the majority of players. They are trying to catch scum and vote for the players they think are scummy. What GM is doing is getting in his vote without resulting in suspicion cast on him when he tries to push for a townie lynch and they flip green. If someone calls him out on it he can say "But I was pressuring lurkers!". It is a tactic I used often as scum in a game on UG. In conclusion, GM has had a few pro-mafia points in his posts, and the rest are a way of contributing without contributing. His votes are not useful to town, but he is able to pass them off as in town's best interests if questioned. I feel he is a player that has managed to fly just under the radar for the whole game, and that we really need to put some pressure on him. As I have mentioned before, read every one of his posts considering why he would say what he has if he was mafia and if he was town. ##Vote GMarshal
What is the chief difference between the first two posts and the last one? The last one, takes time to consider how a townie would think and contrasts it with GMarshal's behavior (he was wrong as it happened), but the first two only point out mafia heuristics, rather than trying to go into any depth as to what the motivation behind the posts is. that is, his analysis as town attempts to be deep while his analysis as scum is both shallow and easy to fake. This is a difference in the thought pattern, in the first two posts chaos13 is going for the *easy* points, while in the second one he is going for motivations. This is an essential intrinsic difference and a clear giveaway of chaos13's real alignment.
There is also the difference in target level, in PTP chaos13 wasn't afraid to go after a vet like GMarshal, yet in this game he has stuck to lower level players, like Svyern and tnkted, who aren't as hard to focus on.
Since we were just talking about heuristics, lets look at chaos13's
Post like
On August 27 2011 20:50 chaos13 wrote:
I wasn't convinced of his case on Mr. Wiggles. It was a whole bunch of meta that, while useful in some situations, didn't actually hold up in this case.
Where he makes statements ("didn't actually hold up") without supporting them are clear and obvious attempts at discrediting an argument, without providing supporting evidence. Accusing me of being the EH, which he does earlier is an example of the same, my argument against wiggles is too tight for him to take down on his own, so he is going to instead try to discredit me. This is scum 101 folks, if you can't kill the argument, discredit the person behind it.
On August 27 2011 22:01 chaos13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2011 21:28 Palmar wrote:
are you intentionally not putting any effort into the game chaos13? Are you intentionally trying to screw over town by wasting extensions and lynches? Doing my best Palmar, but I am exhausted right now. I'll have more time for this game in a day or two.
Once again discrediting a town player, who chaos13 himself admitted earlier he thought was town, also giving excuses, when town doesn't need to justify itself. These are all relatively shallow tells but when taken with other evidence they seal the deal for me.
the TL:DR
For the lazy chaos13 has
1.) Been distanced by confirmed scum
2.) tried to milk the same scum lynch for minor credit
3.) Made shallow links between players
4.) Posted analysis in a style similar to his scumstyle and dissimilar to his town style
5.) Shown several minor "scumtells" or heuristics, including defending wiggles, who is scum
6.) has attempted to discredit me in order to avoid having to defend wiggles from the body of my accusations
conclusion, chaos13 is scum I want to lynch him right after we kill wiggles, (wiggles first of course).
TheFerryman, scumkiller supreme, out.
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