It doesn't look like YM is coming back, so we'll be lynching him eventually anyway, sans a modkill. His play has been incredibly scummy or strange, it's just a shame this is basically going to be another day with little to no discussion.

##vote Youngminii

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 09 2011 09:02 GMT

#934

I spent the whole game basically talking to Mig and pretty much lost interest after day 2 due to there being little to analyze in the thread. As such, not particularly interested in defending myself either, I'll just note that it would take an absolutely ridiculous scum gambit for me to be mafia, given I knew everything Mig knew, starting from day 1. This includes his role, his thinking and all the claims he got. I would have had to waste both day 1, day 2 and even day 3 NKs (they were all awful), just for some absurd plan to win the game like a week later. On Day 1 I couldn't have even known if there's a DT or night vig in the game, making it even more ridiculous. Same line of reasoning applies to BC and DrH, but to a lesser extent as they got the relevant information later. I was suggesting Jeejee (and he agreed) quite early into day 1 and similarly agreed with his points on Varpulis.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 09 2011 09:49 GMT

#939

On August 09 2011 18:16 Barundar wrote:
syllo whats your thoughts on todays lynch?

I stopped taking notes a while ago, but I still find it unlikely the scum team is Jeejee/Varp/2 newer players, while our vets are BC,Mig,DrH,me,Munk-e. I don't care how much host claims it was RNGed, it just looks so unbalanced. If one of the original 4 vets is fake claiming, it's BC. The hits have been awful, however, which does somewhat suggest that a weaker scum team is a possibility. I don't understand why Lucid would have claimed vet when we were about to lynch Munk-e, who he as scum would know was going to flip vet. Could just be poor play, but that's pushing it.

I would lynch Chaos13 today. Sevryn is a tempting alternative, in the light of the Trotsky hit, but he has a few posts that look towny to me when made by a newer player. Following that, I think we have to deal with the vet issue. Would Ver/Qatol really approve a setup with 6 vets, even with 2 RBs?

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 09 2011 09:58 GMT

#940

It's worth noting that the fact mafia hasn't been interested in killing the vets is suspicious by itself, because if we lynch their second RBer, the game would be basically over with that many vets alive. We don't really have confirmed townies outside the circle, so keeping the vets alive just to arouse suspicion doesn't make sense. Perhaps mafia considered redff confirmed due to him being told about the plan by ON, however.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 09 2011 10:19 GMT

#941

Here's a balanced team:

Jeejee/BC/Varpulis/newer player

Following that assumption, they would have realized early on, as I did, that at least one out of Jeejee/BC has to be mafia and would get lynched. BC didn't like varpulis lynch day 1 and bussing jeejee on day 2 when people were already pushing for his lynch isn't particularly meaningful. Claiming vet also makes sense because he had to have an excuse for staying alive so long and he didn't know there would be this many vet claims. Despite knowing about the plan, he couldn't really kill DrH as that would make him look incredibly suspicious, especially if he kept staying alive on the following days. Similarly, killing mig would indicate it was someone who knew about the plan. That still left the possibility for killing someone else, but in that position it made somesense for him to waste a KP to make himself look better.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 09 2011 10:24 GMT

#942

Oh and this may sound hypocritical coming from me, but did BC's day 1 play look like that of a vet? He has been quite meek so far

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 09 2011 10:42 GMT

#944

On August 09 2011 19:41 Ace wrote:
Thats why hosts shouldn't try to "balance" Mafia teams. If it's known that BC or JeeJee have to be Mafia then the game becomes pretty easy to figure out. Better off randomizing teams and letting the chips fall. Even a team of newbies can win assuming they aren't stupid. Experience doesn't matter that much.

I completely agree, but as long as they don't, I'm not going to ignore it

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 09 2011 10:46 GMT

#946

On August 09 2011 19:44 Palmar wrote:

Show nested quote +

The teams were completely randomized

Since it's you saying it, I'm actually willing to believe. The above may somewhat be me tunnelling BC as I'd rather not be fooled by him than lose to two newer players.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 07:48 GMT

#1002

On August 10 2011 13:27 Curu wrote:
syllo though you really need to come in and play to the potential I know you can. Don't make me look bad for sticking my neck out for you like this.

chaos's defense was terrible, mostly for these two points:

I already demonstrated that based on the actions I'm literally the least likely person remaining to be scum. Unfortunately we've mostly some not-so-bright individuals remaining.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 08:49 GMT

#1012

On August 10 2011 17:32 Lucidity wrote:
Basically everyone in that Vet circle has the same defence as you? But there is definitely one scum in there. So . . .

No, I'm the only person in the game, Mig aside, who knew he was a vet before the N1 hit took place

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 08:50 GMT

#1013

Can we lynch BC now

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 09:00 GMT

#1016

On August 10 2011 17:55 Barundar wrote:
Most of the arguments that apply to you apply to BC as well syllo. Anyways gonna go chill for a bit.

Some do, the most important one doesn't, and I didn't spend whole day attempting to deflect the lynch from mafia. Unless I've completely overestimated BC, his town play can't be this awful. He has been against two of the mafia lynches so far and pretty much concluded that chaos13 can't be mafia because he has been lurking and not defending himself or something.

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 20:06 GMT

#1036

Don't turbo BC

syllogism

Finland5948 Posts

August 10 2011 20:25 GMT

#1039

Rereading BC's exchanges with Jeejee, they look fairly genuine. I also still find it unlikely a mafia team with both jeejee/bc would be this incompetent. The hits have been especially bad, for the most part.

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