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On July 02 2011 19:57 supersoft wrote:
sandroba: K, checked RoL got scum. GG.
sinani206: Checked misder, got townie.
supersoft: checked pyo, got scum
nard: Sandroba is Mafia.
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if misder and sinani206 are scum, we would have 3 insane DTs. Or mafia framed pyo/RoL/sandroba
i don't know, I don't think misder and sinani206 is our scumpair
I could see how either RoL or myself could have been framed. RoL was the FoS of the guy who got shot and I made a whole bunch of "optimal strategy" posts.
Basically, of the four, one of them is scum. sinani stood out to me as the least believable.
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On July 03 2011 00:38 sinani206 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2011 00:37 sinani206 wrote:
People who are not confirmed:
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
Of the three townie claims here, one is town, one is vigilante, and one is mafia.
Of the three detective claims here, two are detectives and one is mafia.
If vigilante claims:
We have one mafia and one town left.
A) If we kill the townie today, vigilante can shoot the mafia tonight and the Mafia will use their KP on me, misder, or the vigilante: the confirmed sane detective or the two confirmed townies.
If they kill me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If they kill a town there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/2 = 1/3
B) If we kill the mafia today, vigilante can shoot an unconfirmed detective tonight and have a 1/3 chance of hitting the second mafia, and Mafia will still kill me, misder, the vigilante, or the townie.
If the vigilante hits a Mafia, town wins. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/4*1/2 = 1/12
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills a townie there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia tonight. 2/3*3/4*1/2 = 1/4
Chance of 2/2/1: 3/12 25%
Chance of 3/1/1: 7/12 58%
Chance of win: 2/12 17%
I think that the vigilante claiming is our best course of action. Fixed a fraction and put percentages.
All of that is a false premise - neither you nor misder is "confirmed." Stop blue hunting.
Vigi shouldn't need to claim unless he's about to be lynched. If mafia want to waste KP hunting Vigi, that simply gives time for the sane DT to actually know he's sane/get more checks, while making it easier for the Vigi to actually hit the mafia false-claiming VT.
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It doesn't make much sense for mafia to go after town - vigi is a double edge sword so it seems unlikely that they'd actively hunt for him. They are much better off trying to eliminate sane DT's. That's why town lynching a DT makes very little sense. Lynching a townie is by far the safest play because if we happen to target the vigi, he can just claim (mafia can't false claim without exposing themselves to the vigi). And if we decrease the number of townies, we increase the chance that the vigi will be able to make his shot count. Remember that the vigi has three possible town targets, while he has 4 possible DT targets. Reducing claimed towns is obviously the better choice until the vigi has used his shot or we confirmed who the mafia claiming VT is.
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On July 03 2011 05:31 sandroba wrote:
I like nards plan. If we lynch sinani today there are 2 outcomes:
1)He is scum: good
2)He is town: Mysder is confirmed town: Mafia has to shoot him. We can confirm our sanity by having an extra night of checks + townie flips. Vig claims and shoots 1 of the remaining townies. We lynch the other tomorrow. We have 100% of lynching scum.
Vote:Sinani206
What??? if he's actually town, then why would it be a good idea to kill him? Also, sinani flipping green doesn't clear misder since the framer can make one of them appear to be town.
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I still think that Misder is the mafia, but mafia last second vote changing to sandroba could really mess with things, so I'm going to change my vote to Fishball to ensure that a townie is lynched tonight.
Basically, RoL just claimed vigi, so if he's lying the real vigi will kill him tonight. If he's telling the truth, either Fishball is mafia and we can now focus on DTs or Fishball is town leaving RoL to decide between me or Misder to kill tonight. Even if he for whatever reason decides kills me, town will know who to lynch the following day.
##Unvote
##Vote: Fishball
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Vote counts:
1. deconduo
2. sinani206--------------- RebirthOfLeGenD
3. RebirthOfLeGenD--- Fishball
4. Fishball------------------ RebirthOfLeGenD
5. Sandroba--------------- Sinani206 Fishball
6. Pyo----------------------- Misder Fishball
7. supersoft--------------- Misder sandroba
8. nard---------------------- Sandroba
9. Misder------------------- Fishball
Fishball (4)
RebirthOfLeGenD (2)
Sandroba (2)
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On July 04 2011 05:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 04:51 Fishball wrote:
Well, good morning, or afternoon rather.
So if RoL is the vigilante, there is a lying blue among sinani206, Sandroba, supersoft and nard.
I'll give RoL benefit of doubt, and take my vote off him for now. That leaves myself, Pyo and Misder claiming green. Unless there is a green who claimed blue (which is stupid if there is any), one out of the three greens are lying; Much better odds than hunting the lying blue.
I am putting my vote on Misder, as he was brought up by others earlier, and I don't like the fact that he plain switched his vote onto me right after RoL claimed.
Any blues that are still voting for RoL or Sandroba should focus their votes on the greens.VisceraEyes was killed off in RTM, mod killed in Closed Casket since he felt he was being bullied by vets, so he wanted to leave this game since he wasn't in the mood to play anymore. I know I'm green and I'm here trying to convince you.
Pyo has been rather helpful and active thus far, and I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, so I'm putting my vote on Misder.
##Unvote
##Vote: Misder I have the same thoughts as you on pyo, but I view the only logical way to go about this is killing Misder last, since he is a most likely townie or we win the game by knowing him and sinani are scum. So unfortunately that means lynch or kill you, then lynch or kill Pyo. Pyo looked down, so I opted to try to lynch Viscera and hope for the best case scenario. If you aren't scum then i will vigi Pyo tonight leaving Misder as the only other possible scum, and since he is not a likely "Cover" candidate, or even a check candidate I would assume that Sinani must be lying.
I'm actually fine with that since it is grounded in reasonably sound logic (unlike 90% of the ideas/strategies proposed so far).
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On July 04 2011 11:58 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2011 01:01 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
1. deconduo
2. sinani206
3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes/Fishball
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard
9. Misder Updated.
Currently we have players left in the game. Misder, myself, and pyo are confirmed 100% innocent. We know there is a liar in the blues. There are currently 4 remaining blues in the game. After tonight there will be 3, since I am obviously going to kill one. Which means we now have 3-2 scenario tomorrow since the mafia has to kill me.
There is a 25% chance I hit scum by randomly killing a blue.
With the next lynch there is a 33% chance of hitting him, once again based purely off of luck.
The next cycle there is now one VT and two blues left. Now there is a straight 50% chance of victory.
Statistically the mafia has a mere 4% chance of victory assuming we completely guess at who the scum is, those are odds I would take as town. I could theoretically create a list right now of the lynch order for the next two days and if the town agrees to follow it, regardless of what the mafia does, there is only a 4% chance of victory.
Now let's go further into why exactly this mafia is absolutely fucked. Unfortunately we ended up with the framer left, which sucks a bit, but isn't the biggest deal, considering we mathematically dominated the mafia as mentioned above. The town has 1 DT we can be reasonably sure is both sane, and innocent. If I extrapolate this one step further, it leads to a 33% chance of victory with my vig hit, a 50% chance of victory with the lynch, and a 100% chance of victory with the following lynch.
Wait you say, how could this possibly get worse? Well on top of that we have 3 DTs whose checks are all circle jerking each other, so he can't even risk not framing himself otherwise he could just get nailed as scum off the bat, since all he can do is kill the VT's, because any shooting into his blue group would immediately guarantee our victory.
So on that note, I call for the mafia to resign. Statistically you have less than a 4% chance if we ignore all wifom and just randomly do everything. In fact, while I could eliminate sinani from the group because of his DT check on Misder I won't. This would introduce potential mafia Wifom into the equation, meaning a clever/lucky play on Day 1 would of made a guaranteed victory turn into a loss. I'd rather totally ignore it and go with the 96% chance of victory.[/QUOTE]
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go.
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Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting...
The part that was actually me talking was the following:
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go.
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On July 04 2011 12:24 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 12:21 Pyo wrote:
Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting...
The part that was actually me talking was the following:
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go. I will do whatever I want. Quiet you! Also that is the most generic advice I have ever read.
You're not a DT, so I wasn't talking to you. And my advice wasn't as generic as you make it out to be. I meant that the DTs should go for determining their sanity rather than necessarily go for trying to find the remaining scum. In other words some of them should consider checking a confirmed townie rather than just simply "circle jerking" amongst other DTs.
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On July 04 2011 12:33 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2011 12:24 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On July 04 2011 12:21 Pyo wrote:
Damn you RoL and your bad formatting which messed up my post's formatting...
The part that was actually me talking was the following:
4% chance is still greater than 0%. However, depending on how DT's check each other tonight, it could become game over. I mean, if I were mafia, I would still play it out and try to pull something clever out of my butt, so I'll encourage the remaining mafia to go for it.
For the sake of ending the game sooner, I would encourage the DT's to check in such a way that would best determine your sanity.
As for the vigi kill, I would recommend either nard or sinani since they were the second two to claim their checks. Mafia would have been foolish to claim right away without hearing some of the other claims or he'd risk outting himself right at the get go. I will do whatever I want. Quiet you! Also that is the most generic advice I have ever read. You're not a DT, so I wasn't talking to you. And my advice wasn't as generic as you make it out to be. I meant that the DTs should go for determining their sanity rather than necessarily go for trying to find the remaining scum. In other words some of them should consider checking a confirmed townie rather than just simply "circle jerking" amongst other DTs.
as far using your shot, just shoot whoever. Hell, you can shoot me to make the game more interesting if you want...
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gg, well done RoL [*tips hat]
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I'm a little confused, but why wasn't this still a possibility during day 1:
deconduo - sane, killed night 0
sandroba - sane, checked a framed RoL - sees scum
supersoft - paranoid, checked Pyo - sees scum
sinani - lying, claims sane (saw the first two claims so knew it was safe to claim sane)
nard - paranoid, checked sandroba - sees scum
Obviously after night 1, depending on who RoL killed, and who the DTs checked/reported it could it could be determined that this was not the scenario, but how do we know this day 1?
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EPT
