EPTTL Mafia XLII
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sandroba
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sandroba
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sandroba
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GL HF everyone. | ||
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sandroba
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I propose a DT that has a number on the player list lesser or equal 15 to check me this night. He then pms me my role and I post in the thread that I got checked, of course not revealing his ID. Everyone that has a blue role mansons me. A medic who has a number inferior or equal 10 protects me this night. This should keep mafia guessing, because no one knows how many medics, if any, there are in the first 10 numbers. This can make mafia waste many kp on me or let the plan work. I will not reveal any roles to ANYONE so there are no possible leaks, and will single handly coordinate all the blue force, of course taking into consideration all lists posted in thread and sugested to me via pm's. Possible scenarios: 1) I'm GF, then town is pretty much screwed, but you guys can lynch me if many blues are dead after day1 if you think that's the case. That's the worst possible scenario and a pretty huge loss for town, but I assure I'm not. 2) I'm mafia goon or miller. If I'm mafia I'm pretty dumb proposing this plan, but either way of course the DT will not manson me. If I'm mafia I can lie and tell you guys that a DT has checked me and confirmed my role, causing many blues to roleclaim to me, but then I would risk that there was a DT in the first 15 numbers that can instantly out me as scum randomly mansoning another player and using him as mouth. So it doesn't work well if I'm mafia. If I'm miller I'll of course say in thread that no DT has messaged me (because he won't) and the plan has failed, we can proceed to go by our business and ignore the plan. 3) I'm any other town aligned role (most likely scenario and the real one). If there's a DT who pm's me I'll say so in thread and other blues who have night actions role claim to me. Town proceeds to rape mafia miserably. If no one checks and pms me we ignore this plan and move on. Why this plan is good: First I'm experienced and intuitive enough to make good reads and calls, but not "well known" enough to have a high chance of being mafia GF. Making another praised veteran take this role raises the chance he's the mafia godfather. Second, it has a very slim chance of needlessly tieing up many of our blue roles, since I've limited the possible DTs/Medic protects using the player list. Third, it's pretty hard to make a secure blue coordination center without previously determining a player to be checked or outing the DT, so this is the best I could come up so far. Any criticisms and sugestions are welcome. Let's make this plan the best we possibly can. Cheers. | ||
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sandroba
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You didn't read the plan carefully. If I'm miller the DT will NOT manson me, so I'll post that he didn't and we ignore the plan. If there are no DTs in the first 15 it's the same. Mafia doesn't know if there are medics on the first 10 so they have to risk hitting me and getting their kp blocked OR letting the plan work. You are assuming mafia has knowledge of this which they do not. | ||
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sandroba
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How can mafia mess with me? They have to guess my role AND I'll only tell them who to check. What advantage can mafia derive from this? Maybe organizing blues through one person is not ideal, but it's a start. People still have another manson oportunity which they can use in case I die/ they opt to not trust me. | ||
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So no, in that scenario there is no possible bad outcome for town. | ||
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@Pondo Games are usually balanced around the players aswel, so there's a very high chance there is at least 2 mafia amongst those 8. | ||
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The plan does not exclude analysis, it only speeds up the process of clearing and confirming the subjects of analysis. Let's supose there is a list of suspicious people based on behaviour and voting paterns on a previous inocent lynch. I can organize DTs/Vigs to check supicious players on that list and hit the dubious lurkers more efficiently. It does not stops or hinders any kind of discussion, and it's not like the opinion of the "circle" will be taken at face value either (because even the "circle" does not know each other). Even if a guy is confirmed does not mean he's right as we can tell from many previous games. The plan I'm sugesting is merely an optimization tool for the efficiency of our blues. The plan itself is blue efficient because it's player list dependant and it's not "required" to work. If no DTs check me or if I die night 0 due to no medic protect we can move on with our lifes. You guys can figure out if I'm mafia or not, hopefully. (clue: I'm not) | ||
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sandroba
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-This plan is not like the mafia 30 plan, because I'm not trying to form a confirmed circle and I'm not tieing up multiple blue roles. Also there is no framer this game, so it's more likely to work. Also, it doesn't HAVE to work, this is just a good start. -It does not stop smaller town circles from forming since our blues will have another mason ability they can use. -It's not a circle per se, since only I will know about other people involved. For people discouraging discussion: I trust our blues not to out themselves. If you are blue I recomend you try to act exactly like you acted in a previous game you were town. Do not refrain from posting. Do not show hesitation or fear to commit to your opinions. Don't actvily try to hide your role and do not make it obvious (i.e.: comment on every other blue action except your own / talk only about your role). This should be kind of obvious, but we see every game blues slip like that. Just forget that you are blue and play like you have no role, except for night actions. So mafia starts with a lot of information, while our blues start with none. We can conclude from this point alone that discussion during night time help town way more than it helps mafia. Let's please keep the discussion going guys. Leaving our blues to act at random is not a good plan. | ||
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However, there is one point I actually found really suspicious, and I think it's the main point of his analysis: Your random list of inactive townies. First, you don't sugest we do anything with it. A random out of place list adds nothing if there is no opinion behind it. You don't say "let's pressure those players into posting" or "Let's lynch the inactives". It's a empity contribution. Second is the fact that even though you had posted 7 times so far, you actually contributed exactly the same as those players. If your intention with that list is putting those players under scrutiny on the bases they have not contributed, your behaviour is certainly controversial. | ||
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I've read the thread kind of quickly and will post more thoughts tomorrow when I wake up. From what I see so far neither sinani or aidanai have solid analysis on them to warrant a lynch. Their posting feels too much out in the open, and not like they are trying to hide something. I don't think jonn's defense is scummy per se, but he still has not responded to the main point (imo) of minii's analysis, which is the out of place lurker's list he posted on the beggining of day1. I've explained why I found it suspicious already on a previous post and would like him to adress it. To me he seems the most solid lynch option so far, along with lynching the various lurkers which have yet to post anything. The way this thread is going, it's a perfectly fine strategy for mafia to be hinding there, so we should adress it before it becomes a real problem. | ||
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I think mataza might be onto something in his DeMorcef analysis. Specially given how quickily he responded to it and the emphasis of being new at the end. Also note that he says he's supicious of jonn and sinani, but he soft attacks sinani in his post. This giraff fellow has a grand total of one post saying he's gonna vote for sinani "after reading the thread". He's a nice candidate aswel, since he claim to have read the thread, but yet he doesn't feel like helping the discussion at all. For myself, I'll be voting jonn for now. I urge you people to take your votes away from sinani/aidnai and onto jonn/demorcef/lurkers. | ||
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LancenC and lazorbear have yet to post, they might get modkilled, so it's silly to waste a vote on them right now. I'm indeed suspicious of grassgiraffe, since he claimed he read the thread, jumped on sinani's bandwagon providing no reasoning and didn't feel the need to contribute anything. I think we should keep the lynch between jonn/demorcef/giraffe. | ||
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On June 14 2011 22:48 Lazorbear wrote: I dunno that sounds like you're trying to give the scum a bit of advice..... Correction, lazorbear has this amazing post, so he is a valid option aswel. | ||
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ilovejonn/LandenC/grassgiraffe are all good options imo. | ||
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On June 17 2011 06:28 hiro protagonist wrote: yeah, thing is Mig, BC is calling out those lurkers to post. It worked too. So step it up guys if you want to play. As for the lynch targets, sinani, and ILJ still look suspicious to me. ILJ more so, because his slip into lurker mode. I want to see him scum hunt, cus right now the only contribution I see from him is defending himself. However, I wont vote for him because he is under the gun, We have ample opportunity to see if he slips up, or scum tells. One person that is really flying under the radar is Impervious. So far all his post have had little substance, and smell sightly of scum. As for the lurkers, One stands out and thats grassgiraffe. The others have yet to post much but grass last post SCREAMS out "I made my vote, and I'm out". I know, because that sounds exactly like some of the lurkers in SNMMII. They would simply come in once or twice during the day and say,"yep, I agree with so and so, vote: name here". I am 90% sure he is town, and 100% sure we dont need him. come prove me wrong grass. ##Vote: grassgiraffe Serious scum slip right here. First of all, your reasoning for not voting jonn, which you are suspicious of, is totally bullshit. Second, how the fuck can you be 90% sure giraffe is town from the grand total of 1 post (which is a terrible post) he has made so far? Seems to me you have more information than I do. Even then, you are 90% sure he's town, you are suspicious of jonn and you quickly jump on giraffe bandwagon??? Hello contradiction! Vote for this mafia right now, day1 doesn't get any better than this. | ||
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He's clearly pushing mafia objectives in that post he made and you have to blind not to see it. It also fits the theory that mafia is not actively interfering and pushing anyone, given how incative this town has been. There's absolutely no reason even for bad town to vote for a players they suposedly have 90% confidence is town, while not voting for the one he's most suspicious of. I could understand it if it was a pressure vote for someone to start posting, but given how late in the day it is and the fact that multiple people have voted for him already, this does not make sense. Hiro is mafia. | ||
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VIGs: -Giraffe -LandenC Both extremelly inactive and based on voting thread alone Giraffe has a high chance of being mafia. His flip is also very informative regarding Hiro's aligment and revealing some info on the players that voted for him. LandenC is likely mafia if giraffe is not (he voted for him for the exact same behaviour he was presenting) so pick your target wisely. If RoL shows up and actually confirms kenpachi being mafia he's also an obvious target. Also his huge post attacking RoL is completely out of character from the townie kenpachi I know. Medics: -RoL -Aidnai -Wiggles -Varpulis -BC That's actually going to be hard to argue, but this is my gut feeling. I actually also don't see the point of arguing hard why I feel those players are town and helpful when no one of them are actually in danger. Do not protect: -Hiro -GGQ -LandenC -Grassgiraffe -Youngminii -kenpachi -Mig mostly useless lurkers and suspicious people. GGQ is there for (hopefully) obvious reasons and youngminii is there not only because he spearheaded jonn's lynch, but also because his voting paterns are suspicious as hell. Mig is not being helpfull the way he normally is when town. DTs: -Hiro -GGQ -Young This should be fairly obvious aswell. | ||
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On June 18 2011 06:35 GGQ wrote: I DID stand by my opinion. My opinion all day was that Impervious should be lynched, and I stood by it. I'm not going to switch to a bad lynch just because everyone else is ignoring a good one. You asked me a question and I answered it, but that doesn't mean I want to kill giraffe. He's just a lurker so out of those three I would kill giraffe. But I'm not satisfied with lynching lurkers, tbh, I think it's a bad way to play. And I didn't vote for him to 'save' ILJ because frankly I wasn't positive that he was town. I thought he might have been mafia, I just didn't think the case on him was good enough to warrant a lynch. By the way, I think it's always a bad idea to ignore a good lynch just because the guy looks like he's going to get modkilled. Outside of newbie games, mafia is always going to 'miraculously' appear at the last minute to vote. Lo and behold, Impervious voted. Okay, but it's safe to assume you weren't positive giraffe was town either. So out of the 2 you would rather let giraffe live instead of jonn. What about hiro, did you think he was more likely to be town than jonn aswell? What you did was cast an irrelevant vote. You could have tryed to sway the lynch to any of the top vote getter you thought had a higher chance of being mafia, yet you did not. You said yourseld you would preffer to kill giraffe out of the 3 yet you did not act on it. | ||
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You are saying ILJ lynch was retarded but you did not try to stop it. Also how are you supose to be able to "scumhunt in pm land" if you don't even have time to read the fucking thread? It's kind of hard to defend you when you do nothing to defend yourself. | ||
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Just so people remember this post. You guys are quick to forget. This is the scummiest shit ever posted in this thread and I'm surprised no one is giving it proper attention. | ||
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On June 19 2011 17:52 syllogism wrote: That's a hilariously bad case against me RoL. Do you realize that my vote on ILJ was the third placed, very early on, and when I went to bed, and the sudden grassgiraffe wagon had just appeared and ILJ was still AWOL. Hence rather than switch my vote to the 1 post lurker, which should have obviously been the path of least resistance, I kept it on the one who actually a case made against. It should have been trivial to lynch grassgiraffe when ILJ showed up and started looking more townish. Abstaining or switching in that position would have been much scummier, even if grassgiraffe eventually flips red. Yo syllogism, so you are saying that even if you thought ILJ started to look town before the lynch, you kept your vote on him to avoid suspicion? Fuck killing scum, the point is not looking scummy? | ||
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I sugest vig'in anyone who doesn't commit to a candidate that may actually get lynched. If you don't have time to read the fucking thread sub out. There are plenty of players in the replacement list. | ||
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1) I think he's mafia. Mig said he was the number 1 target for today's lynch. If he was town I believe mafia would definitevely be sheeping on his lynch. Instead we get a huge insta bandwagon on RoL started by the same person which started the bandwagon on ILJ day1. This seems to me like a huge diversion tactic. 2) If he's not mafia (very unlikely) and assuming giraffe get's mk'ed (he should definitively be vig shot if he posts just to avoid mk today) then we will have a full flip of all suspects day1. Since most of the info we have is there, it will be a lot easier to analyse mafia's behaviour with full info on candidates. 3) Look at some of the players that are voting syllogism. There. | ||
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On June 20 2011 12:40 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Idea for night actions Currently here is what I would like to do. I want ALL vigilantes to target hiro tonight. Vigilante hits get refunded if they are stacked with mafia or anything else, so we won't be wasting hits. I will also carefully think through how I would like to try to organize the remaining DT/Hatters and on what subjects to have them act. All ideas are welcome for this. my initial thoughts are Mataza, DeMorcerf, and VisceraEyes | ||
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On top of that, my "plan" with mataza pretty much ruinned everything. Plus I got drunk and shared info I wasn't supposed to share. Yeah, pretty much a dissaster. Sorry guys. | ||
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As for PM's, I think they are good, but I know I'll be more carefull with them in the future. | ||
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