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So far I have:
1. Flamewheel
2. Scamp [7][11]
3. Caller
4. Barundar
5. Radfield
6. GMarshal
7. Deconduo
8. Foolishness
9. bumatlarge
10. Kavdragon [2][1]
11. Chaoser [2][x]
12. Fishball
13. KillerSOS
14. Eiii [6][x]
15. Infinitestory [6][10]
16. Dreamflower [4][1]
17. Mr.Wiggles [4][x]
18. Original Name[4][6]
19. tnkted [4][12]
20. Chezinu
21. Ace [9][9]
22. Kurumi [9][x]
23. Incognito[9][x]
24. Node [9][1]
25. kitaman27 [9][1]
Just to note, this list isn't going to help all that much now, but hopefully later on after some mafia flip, we will be able to analyse the drafting behaviors.
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I'll probably leave it till everyone's numbers are in to avoid spamming the thread, but I've got a list that I'll update continually in my spreadsheet, so keeping track shouldn't be too hard. (Also, there may be some faulty assumptions in my guesses up there, so fair warning and all.)
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On May 15 2011 13:48 Node wrote:Show nested quote +On May 15 2011 13:43 Kavdragon wrote:
So far I have:
1. Flamewheel
2. Scamp [7][11]
3. Caller
4. Barundar
5. Radfield
6. GMarshal
7. Deconduo
8. Foolishness
9. bumatlarge
10. Kavdragon [2][1]
11. Chaoser [2][x]
12. Fishball
13. KillerSOS
14. Eiii [6][x]
15. Infinitestory [6][10]
16. Dreamflower [4][1]
17. Mr.Wiggles [4][x]
18. Original Name[4][6]
19. tnkted [4][12]
20. Chezinu
21. Ace [9][9]
22. Kurumi [9][x]
23. Incognito[9][x]
24. Node [9][1]
25. kitaman27 [9][1]
Just to note, this list isn't going to help all that much now, but hopefully later on after some mafia flip, we will be able to analyse the drafting behaviors. How do you figure that Ace picked [9][9]?
Lol. Apparently i fail at typing. It has been fixed to [9][11] on my list now.
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So... I meant to post this a while ago, but ended up without a internet connection till now.
As I see it there are two general ways that each side can go: You can deny the other team's power roles, or you can gain your team's power roles. Statistically it's a horrible idea for the mafia to try to deny us, rather than gain power roles. (Because of the limited number of players on their team)
Even though the mafia has the advantage of being able to communicate and organize, I think that the town still has a huge advantage at this stage because of sheer manpower. We have three times the number of players, and I think that using that advantage is going to be key in getting the upper hand in this drafting phase.
What I mean is this: We have enough players to both block the mafia from getting their most powerful roles, AND still pick up our most powerful roles. The only thing that we need to figure out is what order we need to take those roles.
As mentioned earlier, the mafia can't afford to get any roles that are powerful for the town, unless they are also powerful for the mafia. Because of this, I think that any powers that are weak for the mafia should NOT be chosen early even if they are very powerful for the town. The top picks should be roles that are powerful for both sides, followed by roles that are very powerful in mafia hands (but not so much in town hands), followed by roles that are powerful for town (but not so much for mafia).
People have said that we should just not pick mafia roles, and lynch anyone found with them. I disagree strongly, as it is that sort of passive play that will allow the mafia to get exactly what they need, and rofl stomp us. Those role will very likely be taken regardless, so I'd rather do something like Radfield is suggesting, and assign them to people, so that we know where those roles are.
Sorry if it covers some things that have already been talked about. Radfield: Even if Flamewheel isn't willing to take thief, it would still work if we just shifted everything down a position, right?
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On May 16 2011 23:41 Incognito wrote:
Whoever is the vote rigger should rig the votes into 4 sections of roughly equal sizes. Try to spread out the people with the same numbers onto different lists.
I disagree. If the vote rigger is the one who decides where people go, we gain no knowledge about the person that they voted for. For instance, if we check a list of 6 people voting for the second or third place lynch, and none of them are mafia, then we get a list of cleared townies, and a huge fos on the person they were voting for.
We can only check one list at a time, and while checking a small list is much more helpful, I see no reason why the voterigger needs to get involved to create one. If he messes with the votes, then we lose most of the information we would have gotten from the voting that cycle.
Mafia 2 det should be checking mid to small sized lists. (Maybe 4-7 people), They should NOT be checking the list of those voting for the person who was lynched. (As busing is likely to occur once a mafia is the top lynch spot.)
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Also, while I disagree with lynching GMarshal today, on the basis that his true colors WILL show pretty obviously with time, and while I think his behavior is suspicious, he can be a valuable asset to the town.
I have held this opinion for a while now: I don't like lynching potentially valuable players day 1. Day 1 is easy to mess up, it's not worth the risk. I'm sure there are better targets out there, like, for instance, Node. I'll post more on that later though.
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EBWODP:
Also, I while dissagree with lynching GMarshal today...
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On May 17 2011 00:34 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 00:33 Kavdragon wrote:
Also, while I disagree with lynching GMarshal today, on the basis that his true colors WILL show pretty obviously with time, and while I think his behavior is suspicious, he can be a valuable asset to the town.
I have held this opinion for a while now: I don't like lynching potentially valuable players day 1. Day 1 is easy to mess up, it's not worth the risk. I'm sure there are better targets out there, like, for instance, Node. I'll post more on that later though. While I'm glad you don't want to lynch me, I have to ask, what part of my behavior is "suspicious"?
You aren't acting like your normal townie. In all the games I've watched you in, you've been really obvious when you are townie, and I'm not getting that yet. My current read is that you are on a mafia team that knows/thinks that if you talk a lot, you will be obvious scum, so they are telling to be quiet. But again, day 1 reads are iffy, so I'd rather not lynch a player who has the potential to help the town a lot.
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QUOTE]On May 17 2011 04:48 Foolishness wrote:
No plans for vote rigging or checking. Let's scum hunt.[/QUOTE]
This.
On May 17 2011 02:54 Ace wrote:
I think right now it's best to just get a few main suspects, and then attempt to split all of our votes between them. Scummiest gets the lynch, vote checking DT gets a few lists.
How is this different than what we would do anyways? Would you mind contributing? You wanted to sleep when the town was making plans, and that bugs me. You are the most skilled player as mafia in this game, and that means that you, better than anyone else can figure out what the mafia is most likely to do. I was really hoping that you would put some of that skill forward and help with plans. At any rate, the day is started and it's time to wake up.
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On May 17 2011 04:48 Foolishness wrote:
No plans for vote rigging or checking. Let's scum hunt.
This.
On May 17 2011 02:54 Ace wrote:
I think right now it's best to just get a few main suspects, and then attempt to split all of our votes between them. Scummiest gets the lynch, vote checking DT gets a few lists.
How is this different than what we would do anyways? Would you mind contributing? You wanted to sleep when the town was making plans, and that bugs me. You are the most skilled player as mafia in this game, and that means that you, better than anyone else can figure out what the mafia is most likely to do. I was really hoping that you would put some of that skill forward and help with plans. At any rate, the day is started and it's time to wake up.
I was hoping that this wouldn't become an issue, but I can see that it is, and since the mafia will likely try to hide behind it, I want to deal with it asap:
On May 17 2011 04:17 GMarshal wrote:
...In this roster of players the majority are experienced people I haven't played with in the past. Incog, fw, dreamflower, etc, are all players I know to be excellent, and who I don't really have a meta read on because they haven't played in a while, so I really don't know how to handle them. Maybe intimidation is not the word, I just don't really have a handle on the situation yet. Also I'm terrified of running afoul of Ver's "don't spam" rule, so I'm trying to make each one of my posts at least somewhat substantial, rather than replying to every post I see/
No. This is a misconception, and I think you know it. These players are known as good players, and time has since turned them into legends. Yes, they are good, but no they are not gods. Don't treat them that way. I don't plan on letting any of them get away with no contribution, or one-liners, and neither should you. I will say it again, even with all the vets, this is not the townie GMarshal I know. That line about not wanting to spam is BS, and you know it. Let ver tell you if you are spamming, but until then start contributing.
On May 17 2011 04:39 Caller wrote:
i'm going to ignore all of your posts to say this:
Nope. Not letting you get away with that. There are a lot of vets in this game, and if we start getting complacent about this style of play, it will be our downfall. "i'm going to ignore all of your posts" is an extremely anti-town attitude. Part of the game is reading the thread, so get with it.
I'm not going to say anything if I don't need to say it. And quite frankly, I don't see a need to start jabbing at suspects on day 1, the day where historically we're most likely going to end up lynching a townie. I'll let you guys run rampant for a bit because I'm not familiar with a lot of you guyz posting styles. this is how I roll.
Regardless of whether historically day 1 is a good or bad lynch, pointing fingers are "jabbing at suspects" is generating information. The whole reason why day 1 is a hard lynch is because there's not enough information, and you are suggesting that we stop one of our primary sources? That's exactly what the mafia want. They want nothing meaningful to happen day one so that there's nothing to go on day 2. The game started a long time ago, and we have tons of information to start pressuring people with. That generates more information which we use to pressure more people with.
If I say something, pay close attention to it. This game isn't about roles, its about peoples, so trying to play to roles is silly. Sure roles are nice and all, but its not mafia if there was no serious analysis done. And trying to do Day 1 analysis without any other information is stupid.
I completely agree. If we rely on roles we are doomed from the beginning. It doesn't matter how big of a mod PYPI is on the normal mafia, the game is still about analysis. To say that we shouldn't start analyzing day 1 is ridiculous, and will deny us of some of the juiciest information that we can get our hands on: Reactions and strong opinions.
I will say it again, we start scum hunting NOW. Not day 2, not once someone claims, not when ace wakes up. With all the power roles in this game, it's going to be moving fast, and we need to work hard to keep up with it.
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On May 17 2011 05:05 Radfield wrote:
It's possible that the reason Incognito is proposing his vote rigging plan is because he took the M2DT role and wants the vote rigger to follow his plan. Either way, that's for the vote rigger to decide, so there's no point in discussing it.
As far as our day 1 lynch goes, we need to be wary of the Copy Cat role. I think in both PYP games I've played, copy cat was taken by mafia. With a town strategy of role denial, this is again a likely choice for mafia. As such, I think the top players in the draft should not be the focus of our Day 1 lynch. I also realize that I'm in the top part of the draft, so my bias is clear, but hopefully my reasoning makes sense.
Therefore, if you want to build a case against someone in the top 6-8 picks(as I do), I recommend you wait until Day 2, when the Copy Cat role has been allocated.
In addition we need to worry about the VI. That would be a popular role as I see it, and If someone up high didn't pick it. In general I think we need to be careful about lynching the higher ups if not altogether avoiding it for at least the first day.
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If you're having a hard time coming up with someone that is scummy, try thinking up possible number combinations that the mafia used, and pick someone from that list. For instance, I think that they would play to get a top spot, so I expected them to go for something like 2,3,4,5. So I picked the people who stood out from those who chose those numbers and compiled a little scum team.
Chaoser[2][2]
Flamewheel[3][3]
Wiggles[4][2]
KillerSOS[5][11]
Of those Wiggles seems the scummiest, so I'll look into him first.
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On May 17 2011 05:36 GMarshal wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 05:27 Kavdragon wrote:On May 17 2011 05:05 Radfield wrote:
It's possible that the reason Incognito is proposing his vote rigging plan is because he took the M2DT role and wants the vote rigger to follow his plan. Either way, that's for the vote rigger to decide, so there's no point in discussing it.
As far as our day 1 lynch goes, we need to be wary of the Copy Cat role. I think in both PYP games I've played, copy cat was taken by mafia. With a town strategy of role denial, this is again a likely choice for mafia. As such, I think the top players in the draft should not be the focus of our Day 1 lynch. I also realize that I'm in the top part of the draft, so my bias is clear, but hopefully my reasoning makes sense.
Therefore, if you want to build a case against someone in the top 6-8 picks(as I do), I recommend you wait until Day 2, when the Copy Cat role has been allocated. In addition we need to worry about the VI. That would be a popular role as I see it, and If someone up high didn't pick it. In general I think we need to be careful about lynching the higher ups if not altogether avoiding it for at least the first day. We don't need to worry about the VI in the sense that its irrelevant if we lynch him as we don't lose, its obviously better that we lynch mafia, but if someone is acting scummy we should not refrain from lynching them out of fear that they are the VI, in my opinion at least. On lynching the higher ups, again I think its a matter of how sure we are, if we are pretty sure someone is scum then I don't think we need to worry about them being a "power role" as long as we believe them them to be mafia. At the very least we can start to build cases against them for tomorrow, even if we decide to avoid lynching them for today. @Radfeild and clashing, I think it best if we assume that the mafia would not *intentionally* clash, thus if we find a mafia in a group of numbers its less than likely that they have another team member in the same number cluster. I like Kav's current idea, while he looks into wiggles I'll look into KillerSOS
You misunderstand my idea though, I want people to build their own lists so that they have to put their own ideas out there. I put out my opinion that the mafia would likely go 2,3,4,5,(,6), and then from those numbers I said who I though was the most suspicious. Make your own list, tell us who you think is most suspicious. Don't sheep behind my list, it's the safe thing to do if you want to hide something.
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Upon further review, there is nothing of much significance with Mr.Wiggles.
He doesn't make scum slips, he doesn't contradict himself as far as I see, but all of his contributions and posting are very "safe". He doesn't come out with any opinions that are unique, and seems to sheep behind a lot of people in an attempt to blend in.
The one thing that sticks out about Mr Wiggles is that he doesn't want to stick out. It seems like he's doing his best to get by with minimal contribution, and that fits my pattern for scum.
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On May 17 2011 07:27 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Now, here's an opinion for you: Trying to figure out mafia numbers with no information is useless. It is complete conjecture, and the very fact you're trying to use it to find people to analyze seems weird to me. There's as much validity in saying, mafia chose 1,2,3,4,5,6, as there is in saying mafia chose 9,9,9,9,9,9. It's useless at the moment, and only gains some kind of validity after at least two mafia are killed, because you'll get an inkling of an idea what their number strategy is. That said, it's still and inkling, and not very much to go on, so using that as a basis for analysis is weak. I'd rather see something behavioural or strategical before anything based off numbers already.
You miss the point entirely. The numbers were never something I used to figure out who was scum, but simply a way for me to narrow down who I will focus my posting on. It makes me (and hopefully others) post opinions on who they think is scummy. The numbers add NOTHING to my argument towards someone, they simply were the means by which I selected someone to analyse.
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My gut reaction is to call Decon's bluff and lynch him. I think that he's obviously implying that he's the village idiot, but I doubt that he actually is. More likely he's mafia just trying to avoid a day one lynch.
That being said, I think that the more reasonable course of action is to ignore him for now.
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On May 17 2011 10:47 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 10:44 chaoser wrote:On May 17 2011 10:40 Ace wrote:
so besides deconduo wanting to die, no one else has anything to say about Incognito telling flamewheel to nuke people along with a host of accusations already on Day 1?
Ok guess I'll just go back to sleep again. This time I'll tuck my gun under my pillow. I noticed it too but before that I wanted to ask. Before you said you saw something that made you unvote incognito. But then you voted him again. Want to share what it was or is it a need to know basis? Kavdragon's posts. Seemed like more bs to me so I was deciding on which one of them I wanted to spend my next nap dreaming about. Then a host of other people started pointing fingers so I decided to go back to the #1 finger pointer himself.
Um...Duh? As I've said before, it's day one, and reads are pretty sketchy because of the lack of information. I'll say it again: The best way to get information is to pressure people and look at the response. Any pushes at this point are obviously going to be pressure, not actual attempts to get someone lynched. (Well. Depending on the response...)
Look at my posting: that's pretty much all I've done, from my very first post (pressuring Node) to now, pressuring caller and Wiggles. I have a scum read on you too, but I don't trust myself to make anything close to an accurate read on you (especially since I automatically associate you with scum) so I'm leaving you alone.
In general i think that only mafia have something to fear from people applying pressure, as townies will be judged by their reactions. Incog telling pointing fingers and telling FW to nuke is exactly the sort of thing that generates discussion and information on people. For instance, if me and incog start pressuring a townie (esspecially if there's not a much of a reason to) and someone else jumps on, then you've just got your self someone who's looking awfully scummy.
This tactic has been used by skilled players to great effect so don't tell me it doesn't work.
Also, what you said about putting on scum goggles is a very real danger, but it's something that I've been accepting full knowing because again, it's not about making a real case, it's about pressure. If that requires me to purposefully misinterpret posts, then I'll do it.
Of course now that you've made me say this my pressure will be less effective...
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On May 17 2011 12:33 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 12:29 Kavdragon wrote:
In general i think that only mafia have something to fear from people applying pressure, as townies will be judged by their reactions. Incog telling pointing fingers and telling FW to nuke is exactly the sort of thing that generates discussion and information on people.
do you realize that there is no way Incog could have known Flamewheel had America unless they were communicating outside of thread, + it looks like Incog is even wrong about it. That's not generating discussion, that's just distracting people, fishing for a claim, putting unreasonable suspicion on fw, etc.
Of course FW didn't have a nuke. That was obvious to me from the moment that i saw incog request it. If they were communicating out of thread, then why would they be talking about it in thread?
I 100% doubt that Incog thought FW had america either. It was all just a play to put pressure on GMarshal, something that I think was a good idea as he is one of the easier players to read.
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+ Show Spoiler +Draft Order:
1. Flamewheel [3][3]
2. Scamp [7][11]
3. Caller [10][4]
4. Barundar [13][1]
5. Radfield
6. GMarshal [17][1]
7. Deconduo
8. Foolishness[1][1]
9. bumatlarge [1][18]
10. Kavdragon [2][1]
11. Chaoser [2][2]
12. Fishball [5][3]
13. KillerSOS[5][11]
14. Eiii [6][7]
15. Infinitestory [6][10]
16. Dreamflower [4][1]
17. Mr.Wiggles [4][2]
18. Original Name[4][6]
19. tnkted [4][12]
20. Chezinu [4][x]
21. Ace [9][11]
22. Kurumi [9][13]
23. Incognito[9][1]
24. Node [9][1]
25. kitaman27 [9][1]
Is anyone else still wondering why all the 4's are behind the 5's and 6's?
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EPT
