TL Mafia XXXIX

On May 04 2011 18:33 chaoser wrote:


There's no real such thing as a scum-tell per say. TL doesn't really do the MS "You said good job to medic when he saved someone, you're scum!" kind of deal but there are limitations to what mafia can and can't do. Or at least feel comfortable with doing. If you look at XXXVII, you'll see that mafia found it very hard to make cases against each other and that ended up catching a lot of them. If you look at XXXXVIII, you can see that mafia were decently wishy-washy. By wishy-washy I don't mean they changed their opinions on things, but that they changed them based upon nothing, merely to please the rest of town.

In Simple Mafia, Town because Mafia were inactive and allowed town to dominate the discussion. Even so, you'll notice that most of the time it was town arguing against town, using weak arguments and trying to figure out alliances before anyone even flipped. That's bad play since you don't know how mafia will act towards each other. They could bus each other a bit, they could act friendly, or they might not interact at all. The point is that you should focus on a few people and then make judgements about connections AFTER the flip. On day one, conversation generation is the most important thing, even if it IS the 30th game we're discussing about lynching inactives or not. Pressure is also a good conversation generator and I know for a fact that GM's question asking helps too.

Mafia wants town to have no direction and I'm sure in this game, where it's filled with mostly newbies, the mafia aren't going to go out of their way to help newbie townies. As such, redtooth get's +townie points in my book. Townies should be sure to ask coaches for help and read over guides conveniently localed here:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=215574

On May 04 2011 23:29 Rising_Phoenix wrote:


Sorry I can't post while I'm asleep >.< Hi buddy!

Also what's with all these vets posting huge guides of how to play the game? It's not like we can't read the guides already on this and other sites with useful information. We do need a leader to help lead conversation and we need to be certain that the person isn't mafia.

I'm against a "day 1 inactive lynch" Unless we REALLY need to do it. Usually inactives are just disinterested townies, and if we go around lynching random people chances are we'll just hit a townie (simple math says 20% chance of mafia)

I also don't see a point in talking about our previous games experience. Really it seems like an easy way to clutter a thread. If you want to see their previous games, go into their post history unless they have a smurf. It seems like we know the people with smurfs so does it really matter? And also isn't it illegal to have two accounts on the site?

I feel huge day1 "newbies guides" are kinda useless and suspicious. While we definitely need direction, guides IN THREAD about how to play the game ore mostly filler. Most of what people said have been said are in guides both on this and other sites. I'm not saying it's suspicious but I am saying it's unnecessary and in general a pretty useless post.

On May 04 2011 23:29 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
Sorry I can't post while I'm asleep >.< Hi buddy!

Also what's with all these vets posting huge guides of how to play the game? It's not like we can't read the guides already on this and other sites with useful information. We do need a leader to help lead conversation and we need to be certain that the person isn't mafia.

I'm against a "day 1 inactive lynch" Unless we REALLY need to do it. Usually inactives are just disinterested townies, and if we go around lynching random people chances are we'll just hit a townie (simple math says 20% chance of mafia)

I also don't see a point in talking about our previous games experience. Really it seems like an easy way to clutter a thread. If you want to see their previous games, go into their post history unless they have a smurf. It seems like we know the people with smurfs so does it really matter? And also isn't it illegal to have two accounts on the site?

I feel huge day1 "newbies guides" are kinda useless and suspicious. While we definitely need direction, guides IN THREAD about how to play the game ore mostly filler. Most of what people said have been said are in guides both on this and other sites. I'm not saying it's suspicious but I am saying it's unnecessary and in general a pretty useless post.

On April 24 2011 04:50 Rising_Phoenix wrote:
##Unvote

Sorry I was at a horn concert and doing some other stuff as well.

First, looking at this mathematically there are 11 players, 3 of which are mafia. If you randomly choose a person there is a approx. 27% chance of getting it right. However, choosing randomly is a bad idea since you never know if you're lynching an important member (cop or medic).

The cop should look up a random member that isn't himself(obviously). That means there is a 3 in 10 chance of him being right (30%). If he is right, he should be able to hint to everyone else who is mafia. That leaves everyone else voting on another person. If you know who the cop/detective is, that leaves a 3 in 9 chance (33%) of being right. That's from 1/5 to 1/3 probability of being right. I don't know how well this works for day one but numbers are fun =].

----- Break for other half---
Leadership for townies is essential, and right now it looks like Conversion and Freestalker are the two most active in leading conversation and topics. Unless one of them slips up, I'd refrain from killing either of them for now.

Silent members have three possibilities:

1)They're trying to hide
2)They're lazy or disinterested in the game
3)It's a holiday and they're traveling

Going through we have these people being pretty inactive:

-jaminz: a few filler posts, nothing as contribution to the thread, pointing fingers
-aScle: one post?
-Enervate: very little posting as well

These players have said very little or immediately start pointing fingers (Enervate) when they start pointing. However, it doesn't make sense to choose him because he hasn't bothered defending any accusations or contributing anything to support his claim.

aScle and Jaminz have had very little to contribute. Their posts have little to no content and have not been active in general. Also, Jaminz has been very ready to point fingers but has little supporting evidence. I'll vote for him since he's just detracting from town synergy.

So, unless he can defend himself:
##vote Jaminz

On May 07 2011 02:38 chaoser wrote:
Amber[Light] has been playing lurker-ish
I'll come back to the Irish issue once he's posted and responded to our questions to him. Anyway onto Amber.

Amber is a vet player, and he generally posts a lot. Not just posts a lot, he also usually very active in calling people out and making FoS's on people he thinks is scummy. Except this game he hasn't.

Most of his posts have been either asking or answer questions; in fact, out of his 5 total (game relevant) posts in this thread, he's pretty much only asked and answered questions in 3 of them.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=22#426
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=22#427
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=22#439

In the two posts where he actually tries to take a stance on someone (In this case Kurumi), he pretty much says the reason he's voting for kurumi is because he wants information. He never outright says that he's suspicous of kurumi, just that:



and before, he questions where the Kurumi flip will lead:



Clearly he doesn't really support the Kurumi lynch but when questioned on if he actually believes the vote though, he responds to redtooth with:



Which seems like a throw-away reason.

For that, I ask that Amber start to post more. His excuse that he's at work and so he can't do much is nulled by the fact that he generally posts a lot anyway as can be seen in insane 1, and insane 2. He hasn't contributed much to the discussion even though he's clearly caught up to speed and has been reading the thread. This same sentiment is also applied to GGQ.

He gives the advice to DropBear:



You need to better explain your reasoning for voting Kurumi (Pretty much that he was acting like serejai aka trolling and so he's probably scum) and why you're not posting as much

On May 07 2011 07:48 Amber[LighT] wrote:
If you want to read about me then read the below quote. If not hit scroll down to the next time you see the dotted lines for how I ended up voting for Kurumi.

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1){For the record I lurked in Insane 2, and I resent signing up for that game altogether because of the absolute bullshit that went on the entire game. I never really play the same style in these games anyway. Would you rather me Bill Murray this thread up with bullshit? I can definitely find some spare time to do that.

Since you wanted to bring up Insane 1 I would definitely like to chat about that game. Though I can't really tell if I was active or lurking [I think at this point I was much more active in games] throughout Insane 1, I remember my strategy for that game. I wanted to be killed. I was given a really cool role that required me to die, the Zombie role. It took me 5 days to die before I could activate my ability, and to my surprise I managed to get a mafia hook line and sinker. See Insane 1 Day 5 post below:

[spoiler]

Was I lucky? Maybe. Oh wait no I wasn't.



Okay okay so now that I've managed to get your attention I'm sure everyones next question is "well that's great and all but you've skipped the more important Insane mafia 2 where you lurked and were mafia. How does that make you any less scummy since you're apparently doing similar tactics?" First off read that thread. I took lurking to a new level in that game. You want to talk about sliding through the cracks for DAYS without being killed by mods, let alone the town, I'll say that was not one of my best games. But Chaoser, master detective, only investigated a couple of games.

I was mafia once before in a smaller game, Mini Mafia 7. I think only Jackal and Chaoser were in that game with me, but if you want to read that thread I was pretty active and worked really hard to get my team a win in just a couple of days. They both should know that too. We had a flawless victory. }

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Why did I end up voting for Kurumi?

The majority was hung up over this Irish vs. Kurumi thing. We had a number of other "suspects" that were accumulating small numbers of votes. This poses a VERY dangerous situation where we have to deal with the votes thinned out between large numbers of suspects. That means we enter scenarios where 1-2 votes can actually make a difference.

When it came down to it Kurumi was leading in votes and creating a bandwagon at the last minute almost always end up in a disappointing lynch, so lets go with the person the town believes is not going to be beneficial to us later for analysis. How often do we manage to lynch a mafia on the first day? Chaoser, you've been in almost as many games as me [since the old days in like 08/09 and how often have you seen that happen? Don't get hung up on the idea that "oh my god these people voted for Kurumi and he flipped green FoS ON ALL OF THEM!!!!!!!!1111one"

The town has been given so much information. We know what players stuck to their guns, what players switched, as well as what players felt threatened by others during the day. Redtooth, since the beginning of the game I've really taken a lot of your analysis seriously and I've had similar views throughout the whole game up to this point. I however don't think imposing rules is going to help us. The town is going to crumble. You want to add red tape to the game to force analysis? The quality is going to decrease significantly. I've never seen this done in a game, and I really don't understand why you're coming to the conclusion that we're playing so miserably.
2){I think we're playing pretty good. We had some good Day 1 discussion and we had a lot of players throwing out some great analysis. We didn't sit around all day talking about roles. This is one of the more impressive towns in any game of TL mafia I've played, especially with so many newbies.}

3){I have to agree with another post I found a bit amusing... [if you can't tell I'm still on page 42 so I'm catching up].



I mean I think sandroba is pretty spot on with this post. If I were mafia I would have done whatever I could have to keep him around. His play was textbook scummy. Him and Irish are mimicking each other and they have a scent of scum on them. Does this make either of them mafia? No. Does this mean that we shouldn't pursue them? No. For Day 1 the most important thing was to discover who would want to keep him around and what benefits the town and mafia would have by keeping him alive. If he was left alive he would have been a target for days. This happens all the time. Ask L about being pinned down. Ace did it to him in like every game for a year straight and L would always be pro-town in the end. Irish or Chaoser should be checked tonight if the detective didn't already get this memo.}

4){Once day hits I'm going to post a bit more on the Kurumi aftermath. I just want everyone to be aware that we should not be in panic mode at this point.}
5){Mafia wants us to be fighting, trust me it's so easy when mafia can just sit back and relax while the town self-destructs. That lynch is going to compound over the next few days.}

Once again I apologize for the novel post. I'm still 3-4 pages behind so I will be posting more if I find some good posts.

I'm also openly against the Redtooth plan, if that's still being discussed.

A townie might want to defend himself if someone accuses him, but only a mafia feels inherently guilty and has a need, perhaps even a desire to defend himself before he's even a blip on anyone's radar

On May 08 2011 08:01 sandroba wrote:
No, I changed my mind about redtooth. His analysis on cthsazsa made me change my mind about him, and he's too fearless and outspoken of his opinions, so it's not very likely he is scum. His plan was misguided, and sometimes I misinterpret poor logic with scum behaviour. My main suspicion about redtooth was the fact that he was willing to lynch killerSOS (who hinted blue) day1 and he was stubborn about chaoser (which I have a town read on) being scum and providing weak reasoning.
If you noticed, I asked for Amber[Light]'s opinion on Redtooth, and that also contributed to changing my mind.
On the other hand, the analysis I will provide on Amber[Light] has nothing to do with poor logic. It will prove that the actions he has taken so far only make sense with a scum mentality.
You shouldn't attack my analysis before I even post it, that makes me wary of you.

On May 05 2011 07:00 Eternalmisfit wrote:

Sandroba was quite finger-happy in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia as well where he was a DT. Now, this does not necessitate that he is town but his play-style in consistent with that game at the very least.

I am quite suspicious of Kurumi as he spammed the hell out of this thread with mostly meaningless posts. I was going to give him the benefit of doubt of him being a young kid or being not comfortable in English for his mostly incoherent posting, but he made a rather coherent analysis post as his last post of the day. Since his last post suggests that he is quite capable of making reasonable posts, his other posts seem scummy to me written in order to create confusion and derail discussion. But again, I have never been in a mafia game with him and am not sure of his mafia play habits.

I agree with AirBlade seeming anti-town. I am also for voting and lynching Kurumi if I think that he is scum (which seems probable to me at this point) but I would not vote/lynch him just because he posts horribly. This might be a lapse in judgment or scum trying to get a townie killed.
FoS: AirBladeOrange

On May 09 2011 00:07 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Read this entire post. You are allowing players to say that because I'm defending myself that I must be scum, but most of the players who voted yesterday for Kurumi wanted him dead because he wasn't defending himself enough. This an asumption at best, a lie at worst This doesn't make sense. The town was doing great, but you haven't listened to me and I really fear that the wrong players are reading my posts, while the ones who should be reading it are ignoring them.. Chaoser has been misleading the town from the moment this game started. I'm tired of being worried that Chaoser will run this town to the ground.


Sandroba should be todays lynch target. All of a sudden on Day 2 he appears after a day of inactivity. This is a lie, I've been active in all cicles Let's look at some Sandroba highlights from Day 1:

Sandroba questioning Chaoser. What happened here? Didn't have enough to push against him?
No, Chaoser was taking the spotlight and I was trying to get a read on him. I've asked your opinion on redtooth also to get a read.

+ Show Spoiler +

Chaoser does circles around Sandrobas question. Sandroba, your question was posted clear as day:

+ Show Spoiler +

Sandroba doesn't want to lynch Chaoser. You reem me out for not taking a stance but you don't seem to have the balls to dig further into his analysis. Then you leave us with this: At this point I was still suspicious of chaoser. He's actions further down the line made me think it was unlikely he was mafia.

+ Show Spoiler +

Chaoser suspects Sandroba as being scummy. Sandroba claims that Chaosers analysis is scummy as hell as well.

+ Show Spoiler +

Sandroba is convinced Kurumi is scum: Yes, I was.

+ Show Spoiler +

Sandroba asking someone else about how they feel about a player:

+ Show Spoiler +

The Sandroba FoS list. It's funny how you forget about things you do between day 1 and day 2: I still think that Rising_Phoenix and Irish are scum. But they are probably getting modkilled so why would I post analysis on them? I've changed my mind about redtooth, as I've stated before. I was suspicious of KillerSOS, but I thought he was a bad day1 lynch because he hinted blue day1, so it was better to discuss him further down the line.

+ Show Spoiler +

Supports a Redtooth lynch.

+ Show Spoiler +

Sandroba thinking like a mafia. He claims that mafia would never want to see Kurumi dead, so why not pursue your list of suspects that you posted over 100 posts prior? Did those FoS-ee's tell you something?Yet, you stated in your previous post that you agree with this. I've explained why I'm not pursuing my previous suspects above. Also, now I have more information, so I can make a better call.

+ Show Spoiler +

Vote for Kurumi, say 2 other players are scum.Again, you agreed with this statement on your post.

+ Show Spoiler +

Doesn't like Jackals posts and calls him out as obv-town. Has anyone else called any other players out for being a town oriented role so far? Coincidence that Jackal also died the following night?

+ Show Spoiler +

Now Sandroba all of a sudden supports REDTOOTH of all players coincidentally after Kurumi flips green. He suspects Irish of being mafia but doesn't act. I've already explained why I feel redtooth is not likely to be mafia at this point. Pursuing Irish when he's about to be modkilled is dumb.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 09 2011 04:53 Cthsazsa wrote:
I'm getting off for a while. Gotta spend time with my madre.
I changed my vote to sandroba.

On May 05 2011 11:10 KillerSOS wrote:
That is an interesting way of putting things. I'll allow you to think of all the possible roles in this game before blatantly explaining how you are wrong. The way you make it look like you are a positive to get killed and in the same statement giving me a FoS is too easy of a lead for any potential mafia to use.

Simply put if you were to die tonight, by this line of reasoning I must be mafia.

That seems a bit too forward than seems reasonable.

On May 05 2011 11:12 chaoser wrote:


I never said said that if I die tonight that you are mafia. I'm just saying that town wants to take stances. I'll back off for now.

On May 10 2011 17:30 DropBear wrote:

Can you link me to his analysis of you please?

On May 10 2011 18:40 Kenpachi wrote:
I believe i am the Vigilante?

On May 10 2011 07:18 Eternalmisfit wrote:
At this point, considering how badly the people think I am scum, I would recommend a vigi-hit on myself. I know that I have painted myself scum badly with my bad analysis yesterday and most people are taking for granted I am scum.

Even though I know I am town, here is why it is beneficial for the town to take a vigi-hit on me:

If I flip scum, the town gets a mafia kill regardless so it is a good deal for the town.

If I flip town, the town does not waste the next day trying to lynch me instead of focusing on other scum. Even as town, my reads have been bad and this flip won't be too detrimental on the town. Also, unless it is confirmed that I am town tonight, my analysis/posts will most likely be perceived as scum trying to distract attention on someone.

A DT check on me would not work since chaoser is almost guaranteed to be role-blocked. And, even if there is another DT, he shouldn't claim once he gets a town role-check on me since that would make him vulnerable to mafia kill the night after.

The only con would be losing the vigi-hit when I flip town but in place of that vigi-hit you get a chance to focus on finding scum and lynch mafia the upcoming day.

On May 11 2011 14:39 sinani206 wrote:
OK, I'm catching up, just skimmed the thread and planning to read more in-depth later.
I will not comment on anything until I'm fully awake though.

On May 11 2011 23:05 sinani206 wrote:
Do the people on the internet ever sleep? I'm on Pacific time and I just woke up. I am actually in the process of writing my post now. Be more patient.

On May 30 2011 12:16 ilovejonn wrote:
Way to play a veteran elmizzt, thanks for the win.

On May 12 2011 12:47 orgolove wrote:
Sure.

My list of suspects remains the same.

• DropBear
  
• ilovejonn
  
• AirbladeOrange
  
• Varpulis