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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 09 2011 12:07 sandroba wrote: chaoser, please provide a good explanation why you did not reveal his role. The explanation I was expecting did not come.
He did.
On May 09 2011 11:26 chaoser wrote: He came back as Mafia Goon.
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He didn't want to reveal if he didn't have to. If he could get amber lynched without roleclaiming, he had a chance of surviving the night. At this point he needs medic protection to save him.
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oh, I thought you meant "why chaoser didn't roleclaim earlier." nvm.
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Two blues and a townies mod-killed :| Though, Irish did flip red which means mafia is at 2 KP. Also, it means that our medics are still alive.
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Ok, so here's why I pulled my plan and claimed so late. As you all can see, the votes between Cth and Amber was pretty fucking close just before my claim, which people bumping Amber further ahead near the end. What does this mean? This means mafia was resisting Amber's lynch as hard as fuck. That means probably anyone who voted for Amber[light] to get lynched is townie. I'm not 100% sure on this, but I am pretty sure. That being said, there's going to be a lot of mafia on the Cthsazsa vote list. And I'm going to point out a few of them:
On May 09 2011 08:50 GMarshal wrote:
Cthsazsa (10) Conversion redtooth Varpulis ilovejonn Forumite Lyter kitaman27 GGQ AO Eternalmisfit
Amber[light] (6) chaoser sandroba chaos13 Kenpachi Mig orgolove
And also Sinani
Chaoser's Mafia List:
Irish
Amber sinani ilovejohn GGQ EternalMisfit
I will explain why each of them are as such
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I feel like such an idiot now. Sorry to chaoser and sandroba. Alright reassessment time.
Medic on chaoser. I now feel that sandroba is cleared too, possibly Cthazsa as well. They are also good medic choices. We have killed 2 mafia but 4 blues are dead too so we need to keep chaoser alive.
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Medics on Chaoser. Just do it. Every day he lives we get a confirmed townie or a confirmed scum.
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I would like to narrow it down to GGQ and Eternal I'm not 100% sold on ilovejonn
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chaoser, I totally agree with you on your list. There are 2 people I'd like to add onto that, as suspicious as well though.
Redtooth could have easily bussed it, so he's not totally off the hook. I realize that he's putting a really, really good effort as a townie, but I'm still not completely sold. Especially since his plan actually created a bit of a divide in the town (which was a pretty predictable result), and that is definitely an anti-town play. It could be that he's town and it was unintentional though, which is why I think he needs to be watched.
I also disliked some posts by kitaman27 earlier in the thread (yes, I have read the majority of the thread). He's also someone else who should be watched imo.
Other than that, it looks like we're off to a solid start!
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Going to bed. I got school tomorrow, so I'm not going to be posting for a while.
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@Impervious
Welcome! I look forward to reading your thoughts on our current situation
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Sinani
I've had suspicions of Sinani since Day 1.
On May 05 2011 10:31 sinani206 wrote:OK, back from practice. + Show Spoiler [Redtooth] + He is probably the most confusing player right now. First he accuses Irish for no reason, but then takes it back, followed by a policy post. His excuse was that he was trying to see how quickly people defended Irish, but what if that was plan B? Redtooth hasn't posted in a while now, and this has kinda died down, but I just want to remind everyone about what happened earlier. Don't just throw things away as soon as he makes an excuse.
+ Show Spoiler [Chaoser] + Chaoser was very aggressive at first, of course starting with his accusation of Irish which was followed by additional aggressive posting. But then he calmed down a little. Is it because his Mafia buddies told him to, so as not to be targeted? That is the main question I have here.
+ Show Spoiler [Jackal58] + Aggressive, but in a neutral way. Nothing he has said swings me one way or the other. He plays very well. You get a star! lol.
+ Show Spoiler [Irish_Punk13] + May have overreacted to accusation, but that was probably just surprise... I don't blame him. He then blames AirbladeOrange, which isn't too suprising. More on him next.
+ Show Spoiler [AirbladeOrange] + Very suspicious with not much of a defense. Possible vote right here.
+ Show Spoiler [Cthsazsa] + Posting, but no real substance. Another possible vote.
+ Show Spoiler [Forumite] + Very analytical, no aggressiveness.
+ Show Spoiler [Others] + Nobody else really stands out enough or has enough posts for me to analyze their play. Just keep posting, people!
In this post, he says nothing. He gives out a fucking opinion on everyone that any one opinion means little to nothing. But not just that, he also is very wishy-washy. Everything is pretty much "I have nothing to say". What's suspicious is that the post seems like it's very big when really it contains almost nothing. He then says the AO is "very suspicious" and that he found no one else "suspicious". Yet in his next post, which he doesn't even try to explain in thread, he just votes in the voting thread, he votes Kurumi, someone he hadn't mentioned. When I call him out on it, he gives this gem of an analysis:
Very analytical, but at the same time, very aggressive. He doesn't give up. This causes me to believe he is a member of the Mafia. I will be voting for him today,
He calls AO "very suspicious" and he calls Kurumi "very analytical" but for some reason he votes kurumi? Doesn't make much sense. He then continues to one-line his way to 20 posts.
On May 08 2011 23:51 sinani206 wrote: Lyter chaos13 kevconsim Takuna Beneather
This is the list of people that have not contributed to day 2. At least some of the scum must hide in the inactives. Kevconsim was a replacement for Rising_Phoneix, who did not even vote on day 1. Rising_Phoenix is an extreme case of inactivity, which is a scumtell. Kevconsim has inherited his role and is doing the same thing. This is VERY suspicious. As such, my vote is for kevconsim unless he starts posting some useful stuff and voting.
##Vote: kevconsim
Who do you think is scum, kev?
His next important post is this one, just a few hours before the vote. He says that scum are hiding in the inactives and then gives shit reasons for voting kevconism. He could be dumb town but not even Cthsazsa was this dumb. He needs to be prodded to contribute more and also to be kept an eye on. There's townie-dumb, and then there's mafia pretending to be townie-dumb. There's no way someone is this dumb. Especially with the "6 people switch votes? there are 6 mafia!" post.
I will check him and hopefully come back with results tomorrow morning.
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the next one is GGQ, the main suspect I have
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Going to bed as well. Waiting for the accusations (justified as I had terrible analysis/reads which scream scum in view of Amber flip during this day cycle) to fly towards me over the course of the night/next day.
I will read and respond to your arguments chaoser tomorrow morning, but I guess it will be hard to clear my name considering how active I was at going after Sandroba and defending Amber as well.
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On May 09 2011 12:05 chaoser wrote:lol...boom goes the dynamite Show nested quote +On May 09 2011 06:01 redtooth wrote:On May 09 2011 02:50 kitaman27 wrote: @redtooth: Your argument seems to rely heavily on Cthsazsa popping red. Are you pushing chaoser because you think he is scummy, regardless of what Cthsazsa flips, or because you want to tie him with Cthsazsa when he flips? Since you like your percentages, how sure are you on Cthsazsa and chaoser, respectively? Chaoser likes percentages (at least high number percentages). I don't want to make up arbitrary numbers so I'll list stuff in the order of which I'm most confident in to which I'm least confident in. Most confident- Kita, DropBear, Forumite town
- Irish town
- If Amber town, Chaoser scum
- If Cthsazsa scum, Chaoser scum
- Cthsazsa scum
- Amber town
- Chaoser scum
While my argument doesn't "rely heavily on Cthsazsa popping red", that is the ticket to a surefire read. So do I get a sorry now redtooth? Not only that, you get my praises. Good job son. Keep it up.
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GGQ Mr. 11 posts has now become Mr. 14 posts. And they are filled with such gems as:
On May 05 2011 12:47 GGQ wrote: Kurumi's style of willfully posting nonsense reminds me of only one other player I've ever seen; serejai from last game. I shot serejai and he flipped mafia. I suggest lynching Kurumi.
This is only making it worse. You've addressed the accusations. If there was no weight behind them, then just move on until they accuse you with something new. Try to scumhunt instead of defending yourself. Only scum worry about defending themselves. Town worry about finding scum.
I'm saying you were using the same scum strategy; post nonsense and act like you have no idea what's going on so people will just ignore you. It worked for Serejai last game; he avoided a lynch until I shot him (I was a vigilante). I'm not a vigilante this game, so my only way to kill you was to vote for you.
This post rings some bells in my head. There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote. Doing a PbP in this instance feels like an attempt to gain townie cred for nothing.
Also, to a large number of people in the mafia forum: the word 'weary' is not the same as the word 'wary'. To be 'weary' means you are tired or exhausted. To be 'wary' means you are cautious or on your guard. Thank you.
aidnai has a good analysis of GGQ's points:
GGQ's point about serejai is moot. There are key differences between these cases -- serejai was a hardcore lurker, kurumi is quite active; serejai was (and is) a big troll and is also demonstrably quite clever as seen by his posts elsewhere on the site, kurumi that I know of has no history on this site to make a similar conclusion; kurumi has been interacting with the thread, addressing current issues etc, serejai only did this on perhaps one occasion. There is also the language issue that makes kurumi's posts seem stranger than they actually are.
GGQ then comes in late to push Cthsazsa's lynch and while other's did as well, his reasons were non-reasons. Before the Amber vote gained much steam, he writes:
Cthazsa seems to be a lot quieter now than he was on the first day, and I can't explain why. He responded with lots of posts to jackal's pressure, but now he's gone afk because of the pressure today? Maybe just because he's now a viable lynch target? His actions seems scummy enough, but I never got that vibe from his posts. I'd like to see an analysis by someone I trust more than redtooth showing him as scum.
Amber seems the scummiest to me from his posts so far, but there just aren't that many of them.
But later he writes
I like Amber's defense a lot more than Cthsasza's. Amber's a player we'd actually like to keep around for future days.
Overall, though, I just have a very 'off' feel about this game.
Your analysis was completely circular.
Cthsazsa contributes nothing of value, failing to provide any defenses for his scummy play. He flounders around sweating under pressure, not sure what to do. Meanwhile Amber provides a solid defense explaining all his actions in depth, which no one has refuted, and he has the stronger case?
Yeah, both me and sandroba refuted it. And guess what, Amber flipped red! Yay! GGQ, you're a vet, I've played with you before and you contribute and FoS and all that good stuff. You have not done so this game. You have actively tried to move a lynch off Amber onto Cthsazsa with shit reasons and it ended up not working. GG Scum
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I endorse GGQ being scum.
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Actually I take back what I said about ilovejohn, he seems townie enough in his posts so far, I don't remember why I felt red about him. Maybe a misplaced feeling.
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