EPTOn April 27 2011 10:11 Coagulation wrote:
/sitout
/sitout
/in
TL Mafia XXXIX
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orgolove
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/in | ||
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orgolove
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orgolove
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On May 02 2011 05:22 Coagulation wrote: Just to let you new people know I will be coaching for this game Take a careful look at his previous posts before you PM him. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Coagulation&gb=date | ||
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On May 04 2011 10:16 KillerSOS wrote: We don't want someone who doesn't want to play. Rofl I doubt I can be active in both games. It's not that I don't want to play. I just found Ver's role list very compelling. However, I do realize that the hosts could be flustered by this. I'll just stay in this game. I'll still do my best in here. | ||
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Haunted Mafia: On October 24 2010 07:47 redtooth wrote: vote HeavOnEarth On October 24 2010 09:58 LSB wrote: redtooth isn't playing. He probably forgot to log onto his smurf Insane On April 04 2011 18:20 redtooth wrote: can we wait til insane 2 ends? then i can be in this one =) Another (as of yet unknown) game: On March 15 2011 05:31 redtooth wrote: can i /in? i haven't played a game in so long. is playing in 2 concurrent games still allowed? not the item game btw. Lynch all liars. | ||
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orgolove
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And yet he posted his inane essay trying to derail the whole thread. I still insist that he's a red. | ||
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orgolove
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orgolove
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And we're just letting the suspicion go just like that? | ||
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orgolove
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On May 06 2011 02:49 chaoser wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/jEcjA.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/QrdnS.png) Great post. We need to look at the people who've been pointing fingers indiscriminately, like 5, 18, and 22. Hmm... I'm trying to see a pattern here between the players the reds want to coordinate against or no. Are the numbers in chronological order of the way they were speaking out against? | ||
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orgolove
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orgolove
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Hm. Can you give me this spreadsheet? I may have some pattern recognition software that I might be able to gather, and coordinate the time of the accusatory posts with the contents to see if a particular group of players (reds) were on-line and accusing the same person at around the same point in time. | ||
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On May 06 2011 11:03 DropBear wrote: SUSPICIOUS PEOPLE UPDATED Beneather redtooth VarpuliS Cthsazsa sinani206 ilovejonn Lyter Yes I realise there are seven names there. PEOPLE I AM UNSURE ABOUT chaos13 Rising_Phoenix orgolove My feelings on Beneather have not changed. It does not seem that I can convince anyone to join me so I'll likely switch to Cthsazsa as he has the most votes of my suspects. On redtooth, I just wanted to point out this: You may not be a noob, but you're doing exactly what you say is scum play. You then go and derail things with a discussion about the chances of a day vig finding a target? I'm not sure how this helps at all. I can't tie you to either of the major lynch targets so I'm not as strong on you as I am the other candidates on the list. Do note that I've been pushing on redtooth but abandoned it as no one had picked up on his scum tells early in the game. | ||
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orgolove
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On May 06 2011 10:43 VarpuliS wrote: @GGQ: I <3 your sig. Could you link to the game w/ Serejai that you're referring to? <3 could be a breadcrumb? FoS VarpuliS | ||
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orgolove
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The past ~10 pages have convinced me otherwise. He's really putting serious effort into his posts, and he's trying to trick things without being afraid of being revealed. I can't detect any hint of red-ness (pun intended). | ||
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orgolove
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On May 07 2011 13:49 DropBear wrote: What redtooth is doing is derailing town. Don't listen to him. Yeah. Actually, this was how I felt in the first place... he started the game by attempting to lead town's discussion into "sharing your mafia experiences" And now he's doing shit like this. ugh. You know what. Despite all my misgivings, I'm voting on him. | ||
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Redtooth | ||
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On May 08 2011 17:16 AirbladeOrange wrote: I'm good if town wants Amber and Cthsazsa as two of the lynch candidates. Irish will probably be modkilled. btw. Normal townies wouldn't be this certain about lynch targets. Only reds truly know who would be good for them to be lynched. The tone of this post almost 100% confirms to me that Airblade is another red. | ||
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orgolove
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Anyway, chaoser makes some pretty good points about amber, compared to Cth... I really dislike how the votes are so close that the reds can easily manipulate the totals at this point. | ||
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orgolove
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Now we have a town lynch, with the voting patterns to show for it. It was a close one up to just a few hours before the end of the voting period = plenty of information. We just need to look at the people: 1. stayed with someone else to the end 2. last-minute switched from another enemy to amber 4 mafia left - with good DT checks and/or vigi kills, we might win this next day. | ||
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[url blocked] The excel file contains the vote time and target for the past 2 days. It's quite interesting. I'll post a full analysis after day breaks and I have a few more identifiers. | ||
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orgolove
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[url blocked] So, lets begin. The Theory of Redness Factor and its Applications Introduction I am in firm belief that patterns can be derived from TL mafia (or most any forum mafia, for that matter) by looking at the voting patterns smartly and objectively. If one carefully deduces the characteristic voting patterns of mafia members, one can numerically convert such patterns into the "redness" of each particular voting behavior. If one can correctly identify the factors and calibrate the correct conversions, one can find who the reds are just from the voting data. From this premise, I first went through the votes of each player, and listed them in the order they appeared in the public voting thread. Day 1: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/vbTlk.png) Day 2: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ImKJ7.png) Proposed Protocol of Data Analysis Now that we had the voting patterns for both days, and especially the second day during which there was a closely fought red lynch, I decided to consider typical red voting patterns and its numerical weight in my scale. The below was what I came to, after careful deliberation: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/of1eg.png) Some justifications: general point values of each redness factor category a: simple. Since reds have full information, they are more likely to vote for townies than one of their own. b: reds have a greater motivation to change their votes according to the game situation at the time, since again, they have more information than the town. c. since reds can PM each other in this particular game, they are more likely to agree on a vote when they PM each other and post it in close time periods. d. reds have a greater motivation to lurk than townies. e. same reason as a - reds have less chance to vote for their own than townies. Even simple probability shows it. crunch time - when there's a closely fought red lynch near end of the day f. when there's a tie or a red is leading the lynch vote total, reds have a much, much greater chance to vote away from the lead, even if they initially voted for each other to hide their identities. g. again, red have a much greater chance to vote for the next closest target in effort to save their own. h. reds have zero motivation to vote for their member that's closest to being lynched, so anyone who does so is most likely not a red. i. again, reds have no motivation to lower the vote total of a townie that's the vote leader, and put their member that much closer to danger. j. once the red lynch is inevitable, the reds will try to blend in the bandwagon by mass voting for the red vote leader. This is almost a guarantee, and thus is included in the consideration. Further, as the reds would not fight so hard over the lynch if #2 is a red, any such hard fought lynch almost 100% guarantees the identity of the second most vote getter. Driving from this revelation, we can then consider that anyone who stayed their votes on #2 despite the red lynch also has a higher chance of being a red than other voters. Results After setting up the parameters, I manually went through each vote and applied the point totals. Day 1: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eBtqR.png) Day 2: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/OKadP.png) As we can see, in day 2, when there were a lot of lead switches back and forth as time went on, which gave us quite a lot of data to work with. To give you a perspective, below is a graphical representation of how the vote totals changed as each vote was cast. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ixeza.png) Conclusion and discussion Analysis of above patterns let us assign a "red factor" value to each player. A ranking of these players by the red factor gives us four principal suspects: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xUx3K.png) Of course, this process isn't completely infallible. For instance, I probably would not have caught GGQ with this method, as he voted for cthsazsa just once during the second day. This also shows the most important flaw of this method - lack of data. The more data I have, the more accurate I can get. At this point, given all available data, I believe that the last 4 remaining reds are:
... Next time I'm going to write a program instead of doing all this by hand. | ||
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orgolove
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ok then 3 of the 4. Probably the first 3. | ||
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1. randomness. If you only have 2 days to use as data, one day can be an anomaly and you wouldn't know. But if you have 10 days worth of data, patterns can be much more pronounced than temporary anomalies. 2. calibration. The numerical values I assigned to each behavioral patterns are not final. With more data, I can tweak those values and introduce new parameters to better predict the reds. | ||
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On May 10 2011 17:16 Mig wrote: orglove could you show how the numbers would look not taking into account the last minute jump onto amber. After chaoser claimed dt I feel like everyone was pretty much forced to vote amber regardless of being town/mafia and the only people who didn't were probably the ones who weren't online in time. So basically I would like to know what the numbers would look like if voting had stopped at 11:15 with dropbears vote. The numbers come out like this when I take away all the points from votes after 11:15: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/b3d2B.png) | ||
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orgolove
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It's not like Amber was the godfather or even the roleblocker. Amber was just a mafia goon, and the reds were willing to lynch Cthsazsa over Amber... I think I can be very sure that Cthsazsa is town aligned. | ||
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orgolove
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On May 10 2011 17:25 Forumite wrote: Orgolove, could you throw up the calculations that resulted in those numbers for the following players? Jaminz, MIg, Orgolove and Cthsazsa. I just want to know why they come so far down. Jaminz: day 1: +1 from voting for a confirmed blue +0.5 from voting within an hour of GGQ day 2: +0.5 from voting within an hour of GGQ -1 from voting Amber -3 from voting on a red when the lynch was on a non-red -5 from making the vote to change the totals from a non-red lynch to tie total: -7 Mig: day 1: +1 from voting a confirmed green day 2: -1 from voting Amber (confirmed red) -3 from voting on a red when a non-red is leading the lynch -5 from making the vote to change the totals from a non-red lynch to tie Total: -8 Orgolove (lol) day 1: 0.5 from changing vote once day 2: 0.5 from changing vote once -1 from voting a confirmed red -3 from voting on a red when a non-red is leading the lynch -5 from making the vote to change the totals from a non-red lynch to tie Total: -8 Cthsazsa: Day 2: vote on May 9th, 4:52 +0.5 from changing vote once vote on May 9th, 9:35 +1 from changing vote 2nd time +0.5 from voting within an hour of a confirmed red (GGQ) -1 from voting for a confirmed red -3 from voting on a red when there's a tie -5 from making the vote to change the totals from a tie to a red lynch adjustment -10 coming 2nd place in a closely fought red lynch | ||
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orgolove
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On May 10 2011 17:28 Forumite wrote: Why does redtooth go from -9,5 in the first list, to 2 in the next, just by removing the changes after the DT-claim? He cast the critical vote right after dropbear that first moved the vote from a non-red lynch to a red lynch. Further, his vote was changed from Cthsazsa directly to Amber, which in and of itself is worth -6. | ||
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orgolove
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On May 10 2011 17:31 sandroba wrote: Orgolove, while I apreciate the effort and those calculation help us see somethings better, they are not our main tool for catching mafia. Mafia are those who are misleading the town on purpose. Those are EM and DropBear. Well, we can agree that Dropbear is a major target. Shall we vote for them, and ask the DTs to check EM, ilovejonn, or AirBladeOrange? | ||
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On May 10 2011 17:51 DropBear wrote: Alright I've gone and fucked up this game. I apologise to everyone for playing shit. I am claiming Vanilla Townie. I'm going to stick with the vote on ilovejonn. I don't even have confidence in myself anymore, but I've been looking at him since day 1. I'm not going to post again for a bit. The last thing I will say is that if EternalMisfit does flip red and everyone tries to kill me next, when I flip green, look at kitaman27 (yay I think I've accused everyone by now) and elmizzt is clear. If EM flips green, kill ilovejonn and redtooth. There is still a godfather out there and they will almost definitely be an experienced player. Rally around Sandroba. He is wrong about me and he may be about EM as well, I'm not sure, but he is definitely town. So is Cthazsa. The biggest thing that went against you, in my view, is that you changed your vote 5 times (I actually missed one) It's not like you're unusually active compared to others too - and you really waited till the very last minute, only switching your vote to amber after chaoser fake claimed. In fact, just 10 minutes before chaoser's claim, you said you're backing Amber to the hilt.... I don't buy your claim. | ||
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orgolove
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Sigh. I need more data. | ||
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orgolove
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On May 10 2011 17:59 DropBear wrote: Last thing. Whoever the Vigilante is who shot GGQ, you need to claim. You need to do it now. The only way to doubt you if you claim is if someone else does too, which narrows down another mafia. We have another confirmed townie when you claim. If you really are a green, it does us no good to fall silent. Explain your thought process. Give us a reason to not vote for you. Come on man. | ||
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orgolove
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Actually, from my records your votes were: Day 2 player voted for 7-May 12:30 dropbear redtooth 8-May 14:20 dropbear orgolove 9-May 1:12 dropbear sandroba 9-May 11:15 dropbear cthsazsa 9-May 11:24 dropbear Amber[light] | ||
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On May 10 2011 18:05 Mig wrote: I agree with going after em before dropbear. I think there's still a chance db is just an extremely overactive townie who has been trying too hard to do analysis on everyone and consequently hasn't always thought everything through before he posts. Well. Elmizzt was the last vote to switch to Amber, just 5 min before the end. He didn't have that much activity, but also didn't contribute to the red's campaign against Cthsazsa. If he's a red, he's an inactive red. | ||
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Oh, another thing - I wonder how DropBear knew that a vigilante shot chaoser, when the reds still have 2 KP? If we flip DropBear, we will have much more data to go with. | ||
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orgolove
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It's getting way to late. I'm going to sleep. Ugh. | ||
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orgolove
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He voted for Beneather (confirmed townie) +1 Then he switched votes+0.5. Total 1.5 Day 2: Switched 5 times. I missed the first switch, so the points he got from this was: Real first vote: 7-May 12:30 redtooth "First" vote counted: 7-May 14:20 orgolove no points 2nd Vote 9-May 1:12 sandroba +0.5 from vote switch +3 from voting one of the #2s when a confirmed red was leading +5 from making the lynch a tie from a red leading lynch 3rd vote 9-May 11:15 cthsazsa +1 from 2nd vote switch (no other points gained, as at this point cthsazsa was leading the votes by 3) 4th and final vote 9-May 11:15 Amber[Light] +1.5 from 3rd vote switch -1 from voting on confirmed red +2 from last minute bandwagon vote switch on a red that is confirmed to be lynched Total Day1+Day2 13.5 | ||
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orgolove
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It's really late - good night. | ||
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orgolove
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I did my best to convince you, and yet you blew it. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473 | ||
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orgolove
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My list of suspects remains the same.
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orgolove
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Don't expect me to put in any more significant effort into this game. You deserve to lose this. | ||
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On May 12 2011 13:26 Mig wrote: You have a ridiculous attitude orglove considering you didn't post for more than an entire day. Then you could have made the deciding vote but instead you let your vote not count and then post bashing the town 30 min later. You talk about all the work you put in but you didn't post for what like 40 hours? And you are surprised no one went with your ideas after you completely disappear? Uh, I have lives like anyone else. I think I spent enough time on Day 2 of this game given it took like 6 hours to take the data, think of reasonable factors, apply the patterns, write up a convincing summary. And yet you guys would rather listen to ineffective and at best circumstantial evidence without looking at hard data. I can't change your behaviors. But you guys also can't force me to put in all that effort again, when I know it'll go to waste. | ||
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orgolove
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On May 12 2011 13:38 DropBear wrote: Those of his suspects who is coming back to "frame him" is me and VarpuliS. AirbladeOrange and ilovejonn are nowhere to be seen. ilovejonn made plenty of posts accusing me. 3 out of 4. On May 12 2011 13:40 Mig wrote: You could be the best scum hunter in the world but if you don't have the time or ability to actually post and convince people of your ideas then that's the fault of your game not the town's. And you still haven't said why you didn't vote between EM and sinani. I'm not convinced either of them are mafia above the 4 I listed. On May 12 2011 13:46 Varpulis wrote: Why should I trust orgolove's data? We've killed three mafia, and are about to kill a forth. None of them were on his suspect list, which was based entirely on his data. You lynched 1. And 1 only. The other one was killed by a vigilante. Both were done before I posted my data. The remaining two were modkilled. You called that a good record? LOL "About to kill a 4th" suuuuure. I have 100% confidence that you'll kill a red tomorrow. Yes. | ||
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orgolove
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473 Unfortunately, as we have no further revealed reds, addition of the latest votes will only give a small amount of new information, beyond just universally adding a small amount of points to everyone that voted for the revealed green. Anyway, we see that ilovejonn keeps popping up in many lists, including chaoser's. I voted for him yesterday, and I'm voting on him again. I doubt someone who has turned up in our radar so many times is not a red. | ||
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orgolove
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Anyway. Vote ilovejonn. If I still have to explain after all this... I don't know what to say. | ||
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orgolove
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*sigh* this game just isn't worth my time anymore. | ||
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orgolove
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Did you not notice how flustered and panicky ilovejonn became after I first posted my suspicion on him? Ugh. Not just that, but every one of his efforts has been attempting to paint red on completely irrelevant targets. His "information" vote is merely smokescreen to try to distract us from the truth. How long will it take you before you eat your own words? | ||
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... That was uh.. completely unexpected. wtf.... | ||
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And I want to point out in the beginning of day 3, that he tried to start another bandwagon against Cthsazsa, who came in second place to Amber during that closely-fought lynch. I still think ilovejonn is red. And I hope my data, when I finish the analysis, will show as such. | ||
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orgolove
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On May 15 2011 12:01 orgolove wrote: Fun. As I said. You will all eat your words when the game is over. Sigh. So pathetic. On May 15 2011 12:02 orgolove wrote: Wait wtf that's not the real post?... On May 15 2011 12:03 orgolove wrote: Anyway. The post won't change anything. You just lynched a green. And the reds know it, and are probably laughing their asses off right now in their IRC or quicktopic. I attribute my difficulty in distinguishing sinani as red to having only 2 days of data. I'm sure when I finish updating the spreadsheet, things will become a lot more clearer. | ||
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On May 15 2011 12:50 ilovejonn wrote: bet he's still gonna stick to his data sheet and go with whoever has the highest points after tonight. because vote analysis is the best and only analysis am I right orgolove? Nah, I'm still sticking my vote on you, scum. | ||
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orgolove
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http://uploadmirrors.com/download/LFRNBCMK/TL_mafia_xxxix_day_4.xlsx First, the criteria again: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ivzZj.png) Day 3 was another really important vote, in hindsight, as sinani206 was revealed to be a red. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bE3v0.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/na9FI.png) Day 4 didn't bring too many changes. Though the vote was close at the start of 12 hours, it was more because the reds didn't have the manpower to switch the lynch, rather than there being actually two contested results. And the data shows that. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/0KqkS.png) ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/e7zuY.png) + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ruJel.png) How did it feel, having to choose between two of your own? lololol Of course, in red's point of view, it'd be better to lose the new player whose every action had to be directed, and save the vet who could, given a miracle, survive... (ha) Here's the summary. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/GeFlM.png) I have more confidence in this, as it compiles 4 days of data, instead of just 2. But again, because I revealed the methodology before this, it is not completely impossible that the reds tried to coordinate and manipulate the procedures. I'll see about tweaking the factors the next time I play mafia. To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds. I strongly push for ilovejonn's lynch. | ||
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orgolove
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On May 15 2011 14:59 DropBear wrote: OK I'm back guys. Good work on the lynch! Big up to chaoser as well  Firstly, welcome Xedat! Second, I am almost 100% ready to clear ilovejonn. The self-vote was strange and a bad idea but I can't really imagine a scenario in which a mafia would do this. Sorry for voting for you! Third, orgolove, shouldn't NOT voting for sinani206 give people red points on Day 4? I can't see how ilovejonn can be mafia after this. The next point I want to address is AirbladeOrange. My analysis of him was heavily based around him being tied to ilovejonn. This lynch makes AO look much much better. On the other hand, Mafia are in dire straits now. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think we have another 3 mislynches up our sleeves, and that's assuming there aren't any veterans left in which case it could be more. In XXXVIII when our Mafia team was totally fucked, AO stayed on until the last possible moment. It's a trait he's shown before. I'm going to look over him again but my suspicions have dropped drastically following today's lynch. 1. ilovejonn only started his bus after it became clear most of the town was onto two of the remaining three reds. His mindset - "if we're gonna lose one anyway, let it be the newb and not me." I can't believe you just think that post clears him. 2. You have to understand who has or doesn't have the information. Reds already knew that sinani is going to be lynched anyway. It's the "switch" that you see once the lynch is apparent that matters. Whether or not they first voted for a red is not as important. In fact, that type of analysis falls easy prey to reds voting for each other early on then switching just to confuse us. That is partially counted for the +1 that people receive each time their vote turns out to be a vote for an eventual confirmed green. ilovejonn has been posting and sending accusations everywhere. I strongly push for his lynch. | ||
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orgolove
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I've done all that I could. The rest of you town are just sheep going wherever the reds want you. Sigh... 2. jaminz 3. ilovejonn 6. AirbladeOrange 7. VarpuliS 10. elmizzt 13. Mig 14. orgolove 16. Forumite 17. DropBear 21. chaos13 Is what I think is alive? I still think ilovejonn is the highest threat. Either that or Airblade. But w/e - I've really lost the motivation here. Go ahead, do your thing -_- | ||
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On May 21 2011 14:25 Forumite wrote: Quoted for Truth. Orgolove, if you wanted for us to listen to you, then making a solid and reasonable argument is better than flaming. If we find scum, then it is in no way thanks to you and this behavior. I spent literally at least 10 hours or more compiling data and organizing it for town. It's your choice to not use it, and it's my choice to award you with an "I told you so" each time you fail. | ||
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orgolove
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Still. I'm holding my vote on ilj. And I made my point plenty of times why my vote is on it. Don't make me repeat myself. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On May 24 2011 06:25 Mig wrote: Everyone is going to vote orgolove it is obviously the correct play On May 23 2011 01:40 AirbladeOrange wrote: orgolove is my vote again. Next in line are probably DropBear and Kita, maybe jaminz. I don't feel like I have much to go by now though because there is too much to go by. On May 23 2011 19:56 Xedat wrote: I am pretty sure that orgolove is scum. On May 22 2011 05:01 Forumite wrote: I think orgolove is scum, On May 22 2011 16:40 elmizzt wrote: I voted orgolove last cycle, and I will do so again based on the same reasoning as before. Forumite's role reveal only strengthens my belief that org is scum. On May 22 2011 17:19 DropBear wrote: RIP Forumite and it looks like orgolove is preeeeeeeeetty fucked right now lol. To be fair, I should've revealed the spreadsheet after a few more days had passed. Revealing it so early allowed the red to manipulate their voting patterns and rendered the remaining data worthless. Sigh. My involvement in this game was doomed from the start. I could've just stayed in Ver's game -_- | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On May 30 2011 12:25 Varpulis wrote: org's little list only had 1 scum on it. In the future: Posting analysis, not voting analysis. Try harder. I called for ilovejonn's lynch for days. Weeks in real time. Forget ever having me as a mafia player here again. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On May 31 2011 00:26 Varpulis wrote: The fact that some of the towns most experienced players either went MIA or decided to base his arguments on a bullshit voting spreadsheet didn't help, Chaoser. Oh lol. Yeah, like you pegged reds with your "analysis." I had every right to change to Ver's game but stayed here out of loyalty. What do I get? A miller role and ungrateful little ....s who don't appreciate any serious time or effort put into the game. Screw this. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
After Dropbear convinced us of his town, I targeted ilovejonn. For. Days. If we flipped him, there'd be plenty more data to handle, and with more data, it would've been more accurate. But no. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On May 31 2011 00:26 Varpulis wrote: The fact that some of the towns most experienced players either went MIA or decided to base his arguments on a bullshit voting spreadsheet didn't help, Chaoser. On June 01 2011 11:01 sandroba wrote: Nice attitude man. | ||
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