TL Mafia XXXIX

On May 04 2011 22:41 Kurumi wrote:
I thought I will have any heavy read by the time I am back and game starts but..
the only thing I saw was
CHAOS.
Saying that,while someone says this,posting some rules being in the other thread,just doing a contribution without any value

On May 04 2011 22:48 sandroba wrote:
Ok, so I've caught up right now and something in particular has caught my attention.



That's all fine and all but the thing I find extremelly suspicious about this post is this:
Chaoser points out how redtooth post is pro-town and then he proceeds to do exactly what redtooth did. Why are making such a huge effort to appear pro-town chaoser? This post would have exactly the same content without the bolded part. The only thing this part adds is making YOU look more town.

On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:
@Chaoser - I don't see how the argument is weak or convoluted. It essentially boils down to two things:

• You are pushing a lynch on Irish, an obvtown
  
• You are FoSing all the easy targets, many of whom are obvtown

Out of all the actions taken in the thread so far, out of all the verbal missteps and the random disappearances and the smurf conspiracy theories, those seem to be the most scummy actions so far.

If you believe Irish to be mafia and have a 70% confidence (pretty high mind you) then why is it that you've partially quit your attempt to press him other then to mention in passing that he's still your top suspect. You accuse me of not focusing but here you have 4 targets set before the town with none earning your full attention. Since you seem to be half-heatedly advocating for the Kurumi lynch, if he flips green would you agree that Irish is green as well? I think Kurumi's lynch is actually even more ridiculous but that's besides the point.

It's not the fact that there is a simple "chance" of these things being likely, it's the fact that there seems to be a high chance of these things happening. I've re-read their posts numerous times and it isn't a far-fetch'd thing to say that most are simply noobtown. They all act suspicious as hell, almost to the point of playing with reckless abandon and not caring about the follwup. Do these sound like scum actions to you?

As for "active lynching", yes I took a very liberal approach to the definition of it. But the bottom line stays the same - every action you took so far has been extraordinarily safe. You called out the people who were easy to call out, regardless of whether they actually seem more like noobtown or not. I can literally run through the thread and call out every ranting member for missteps in word usage and have 10+ well-justified FoS by the end but that doesn't contribute to the thread. What it does do is destroy focus, as evidenced by the game thus far. Scumhunting is incredibly sexy and screams I'M TOWN. Townhunting is not nearly as sexy but just as important and something that you've generally neglected to do. Not every FoS may be a lynch threat but obviously two (Irish and Kurumi) are. And since those two look pretty noobtown, I find it extremely odd that you continue advocating for their lynch.

The reason why I didn't put a vote on you yet was because, I'll admit, there isn't enough evidence to totally convince me that you are scum. Talking percentages, I'd say I'm probably around 40% sure. But that 40% is more confidence I have in you being scum than literally anybody else in the thread except maybe KillerSOS. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense at this point to think both you and Killer are scum so a vote will have to wait until I can clear one or the other.

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@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.

• Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  
• Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  
• Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.

Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.

• Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  
• Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  
• Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.

This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.

On May 06 2011 13:57 Cthsazsa wrote:
My take on the situation before I go to bed.


+ Show Spoiler +

Actually, I did do something about it. I looked up Beneather's post history in this thread.
VarpuliS was wrong. Beneather posted 3 times since the game started. The three posts he made don't have much value to them, though.





He asked Forumite to analyze the posts. Forumite did, but very poorly. After Forumite's analysis, Beneather never commented on it. In fact he never talked about it again. This dude's clearly lurking.

As for my one liner, I apologize DropBear. My girlfriend was in the hospital, and I couldn't resist checking up on the thread while I was waiting. So I hastily gave my opinion of him, which was a mistake. I should've waited until now to give my analysis.

DropBear, you also said I didn't do anything about it. Well, neither have you.
And on your post against VarpuliS, you do a really good job pointing out his slipups. You've pretty much stated why he is one of my FoS.



That is exactly what VarpuliS said, you even quoted it. I find that to be a horrible reason to call someone scum. Not because I'm the target in it, but because you can use that argument on literally anyone.


Forumite

Why he is becoming a FoS in my books.

+ Show Spoiler +

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Lets make comparisons between those posts by Forumite.
Each of these posts are either asking a question or making a statement to continue the argument. They aren't worth any value, don't contribute, and all they do is draw out pointless/stupid arguments that don't benefit the town.



In his last post before Kurumi's death, he hops on the bandwagon and switches his vote to Kurumi.

My top 3 FoS right now are Beneather, Forumite, and VarspuliS

On May 05 2011 09:30 Mig wrote:
Here are some of my thoughts about everything.

The chaoser/redtooth long posts- I don't really have an opinion on whether the posts are scummy or not but a big part of why kavdragon was lynched last game for similar posts was because those were pretty much all he posted. He posted very little actual analysis and the analysis he did post wasn't very good. So as long as red/chaoser post some good analysis I don't think there is a problem with them trying to help out the newer players.

AO/Irish/Karumi- I don't find AO that suspicious other than him saying chaoser was suspicious without giving any reasoning. Irish/karumi seem by far the most suspicious to me. Irish saying karumi had made a lot of great posts is either him defending a teammate or he hadn't actually read anything karumi had written. Almost every post of karumi's has had almost no content and has been confusing. I don't know why a townie trying to win would play like him, other than to try and get reactions out of people. But if that's the case I would like to see some more reasonable posts from him. His one analysis post was better but didn't actually have much analysis in it.

Cthsazsa- I think the scum slip jackal is going on about is way overblown. It seems a lot more likely to just be a mistake than his attempt to run some mafia agenda of protecting lurkers, especially when hes being pretty active himself. I would be more suspicious of beneather who didn't post at all then instantly jumped on the supposed scum slip.

Anyway I guess if I had to vote right now I would vote karumi but I will wait for more information to officially decide.

On May 05 2011 09:57 Mig wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

I agree with varpulis here. And I would add I think it would be a pretty huge mistake to vote for chaoser on day1, unless we had some really damning evidence. He was one of the best players in the last TL mafia. It would be too big of a risk to potentially lose one of our best players unless we were very sure.

On May 06 2011 05:12 Mig wrote:
Redtooth- I think a lot of your arguments against chaoser are stretching it a bit. And your main argument defending kurumi and irish is they are so bad they couldn't possibly be mafia. You even ask when was the last time someone this obvious ended up being mafia. The answer to that is in the previous game. As GGQ mentioned Serjei was blatantly trolling with every one of his posts and he ended up being mafia. Obviously that doesn't prove that kurumi is mafia but you can't use that argument as your main defense for them.

Kurumi- I disagree with most of your analysis of sandroba. Your main points against him seem to be you criticizing his asking people questions saying hes trying to bandwagon their analysis. But really its a good idea to ask people questions and have them make stands so you have posts which you can analyze yourself.

I don't believe your story about trying to attract attention to yourself at all really. It just doesn't make any logical sense. You complain about people focusing on you instead of the vets who aren't posting. But of course people are not focusing on the lurkers after you drew so much attention to yourself. And you said you wanted to draw mafia out by having people vote for you on day2 right? So I don't really get why you said you made mistakes, it seems to me if this was really your goal then you just succeeded a day early.

It just feels to me like you made this plan up to try and save yourself.

So I am going to vote for kurumi, but if irish doesn't post before the deadline defending himself I would probably be ok with switching to him. I would rather not vote for red just yet because he is a vet and I am a little gun shy to lose potential assets to the town early on when our information is still limited.

Conversion- The only thing I know for him is he played exactly like this (hardcore lurking) last game and he was town.

On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote:
Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why?

On May 07 2011 02:39 Mig wrote:
I think you are being ridiculous right now redtooth. If the town is being so impossibly bad how about taking some leadership and actually putting us in the right direction.

I want you to look at this from my viewpoint for a second. On one hand I see kurumi who is obviously spamming and trolling with 90% of his posts. Who then comes up this ridiculous explanation that all his posting was a plan (I still think this was a lie, I think he just posted terribly at the start and then made up something to try and save himself). Then on the other side the absolute only argument defending him is you saying hes so bad he can't be mafia. Which in my limited experience isn't always going to be the case.

Along with this after you defended irish/kurumi you don't make any argument for who people should lynch. You say killer is somewhat scummy but make no argument for him. You say chaoser is the most scummy but then claim you don't have time to make a case to get him lynched. So really with the information that I have who do you expect me to vote for?

You accuse the town of sheeping onto kurumi, well maybe if you had made a case for someone else to be lynched you could have convinced the town to switch their votes.

And I think your rules are a pretty bad idea. In an ideal world the rules sound like a great idea. But I think when you post this long 10 point list of rules and at the end you say if you don't follow these I am going to assume you are scum, the only thing you are going to do is discourage people from analyzing. If people have to go and follow 100 rules before they can post their thoughts most of them just won't bother. It's going to make it easier for scum to lurk, since less people will be actively contributing.

On May 05 2011 09:39 Mig wrote:
KillerSOS has posted like 30 times in the thread already without giving any strong opinions on pretty much anything. I would like to know who you think is scummy/town killer.