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Experiment Mafia I - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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dopey1
Profile Joined April 2011
9 Posts
April 16 2011 08:20 GMT
#41
I'm thinking because of the GF part? No roles are guaranteed to be in the set-up. I do believe he is right about claims being easily faked. Though I personally think GF is unlikely with no role-reveal. All depends though
grumpy1
Profile Joined April 2011
31 Posts
April 16 2011 08:23 GMT
#42
It was sarcasm. I was using sarcasm.

Honestly, there's no reason to play games. (in a manner of speaking) Either say your piece or don't bother. I will say that if you think I've "scum slipped" everything I said is confirmed in the OP.
happy1
Profile Joined April 2011
83 Posts
April 16 2011 08:27 GMT
#43
Also, some math/notes I've put together while idly waiting for more people to start posting.

+ Show Spoiler +
No Vig

D1 9:2
D2 7:2
D3 5:2
D4 3:2 - LYLO

N2 looks best; that way we can check if we are going into LYLO the next day. If we lynch a town on D3, but have 1 scum left, 2 people is a small enough pool to do reasonable analysis on. Best-case scenario is actually lynching the scum the day we use our 1 shot team ability. If we either have lynched or lynch scum it becomes:

D4 4:1
D5 2:1 - LYLO
[/spoiler]
+ Show Spoiler +
Vig Shot

D1 9:2
N1 8:2 (20% chance of shooting Scum)
D2 7:2
N2 6:2 (25% chance of shooting Scum)
D3 5:2
N3 4:2 (33% chance of shooting Scum; Shooting a townie ends the game)
D4 3:2 - LYLO

Pure stat-wise, N2 is the 'best' time to shoot, as we will enter MYLO, rather than a shot on N3 being a gamble of extending the game, or ending it. In all circumstances, if I see a Vig shoot N1 I will probably kill you.

Vig does have some other fun things, but I'd rather wait for them to crop up.
[/spoiler]
happy1
Profile Joined April 2011
83 Posts
April 16 2011 08:34 GMT
#44
On April 16 2011 17:23 grumpy1 wrote:
Honestly, there's no reason to play games. (in a manner of speaking) Either say your piece or don't bother. I will say that if you think I've "scum slipped" everything I said is confirmed in the OP.

Not really scum slipped. Just some odd mentality/wording.

On April 16 2011 15:33 grumpy1 wrote:
In fact, I'm going to go ahead and say that believing any claim in this game is likely a poor idea.

Unnecissary fearmongering; "We don't know if anyone is telling the truth", except...why would a townie lie? Disregarding every single claim is not a good idea at all.

With the no-flip mechanic, we've got no way of safely confirming anything aside from looking at the mafia count. We don't know if a role that's claimed is even in the game at all. With 9 townies and 2 mafia (one of which could be the godfather), it's definitely pretty unlikely that the whole role list is out there -- there's too many places to hide.

Only scum have reason to lie about their role.

And even by knowing how many scum are left helps; As I show in my previous posts' notes, if we reveal scum on N2/D3, we know 2 townies were telling the truth and can more accurately analyze their wagons.

I find the 'mentality' of your post off; enough for my vote in this stage of the game.
happy1
Profile Joined April 2011
83 Posts
April 16 2011 08:37 GMT
#45
To be honest I would have preferred a tracker or watcher to a cop as an investigative role considering many of the possible combinations.
If it was a 12 man game with 2 scum, I woulda been dead-set on there being atleast 1 traitor. Curse you for throwing a curve ball in my setup anlysis :fistshake:
augustus1
Profile Joined April 2011
20 Posts
April 16 2011 12:08 GMT
#46
The only 2 roles that I see that can be verified are cop and vig. And that's only by calling your action right before the day post. If those roles are even in the game. Without a flip the rest are pretty much unverifiable.
From the OP:
As a recommendation. I would HIGHLY recommend not role claiming.

He doesn't say you can't role claim, just that it's probably not a good idea.
Other than the vig or cop I'm going to have to believe that anybody that does role claim is scum.
happy1
Profile Joined April 2011
83 Posts
April 16 2011 12:24 GMT
#47
On April 16 2011 21:08 augustus1 wrote:
The only 2 roles that I see that can be verified are cop and vig. And that's only by calling your action right before the day post. If those roles are even in the game. Without a flip the rest are pretty much unverifiable.
From the OP:
Show nested quote +
As a recommendation. I would HIGHLY recommend not role claiming.

He doesn't say you can't role claim, just that it's probably not a good idea.
Other than the vig or cop I'm going to have to believe that anybody that does role claim is scum.

*sigh* It seems I must break out the diagrams

D1, we have Person A claim vanilla and ends up lynched
D2, we have Person B claim vigilante and ends up lynched
N2 we activate; 2 scum alive
D3, we have Person C claim vanilla, flips Scum

That gives us two solid wagons to analyze as we know they were both town.

D1, we have Person A claim vanilla and ends up lynched
D2, we have Person B claim vigilante and ends up lynched
N2 we activate; 1 scum alive
D3, we have Person C claim vanilla, flips Town

We know either Person A or Person B was scum. And thats where the fun begins. It gives us much more solid base to stand on, than having both of them being in the dark.

Again, there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO REASON for a townie to lie about their role unless they're hurdling themselves off the deep end.

Cop can't be verified on his word/action alone per se; Vig could be verified, but it is only one shot and then he gains a nice bullseye. And heaven forbid we have multiples of any single role.

Just because we're in the dark doesn't mean we need to completely disregard any and all role claims- just take them with a smidge of salt, and are probably going to be more useful in retrospect rather than as-they-occur.
augustus1
Profile Joined April 2011
20 Posts
April 16 2011 12:46 GMT
#48
So are you advocating a mass claiming?
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
April 16 2011 13:25 GMT
#49
On April 16 2011 14:52 happy1 wrote:
@Mod: By 'Role Claiming', does that mean even if we are run up to claim range, we are not allowed to claim a role?
Are you saying its a bad idea to Role Claim, or that it has been made 'against the rules' to Role Claim?
Specifically, are you disallowing the possibility of a mass claim?

I am advising against it. It is however technically legal.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
caligula1
Profile Joined April 2011
39 Posts
April 16 2011 13:41 GMT
#50
happy - that looks sound. Unless vig/medic or something else happens I would agree with that

I assume what you mean is that the person being lynched should claim before being lynched. Not that there should be any mass claim.

Are we allowed vote for a no lynch?
tiberius1
Profile Joined April 2011
55 Posts
April 16 2011 13:48 GMT
#51
Happy, are you advising that we mass claim DESPITE the mod telling us it would be a bad idea? Are you serious? If scum has one roleblocker, they can block medic protection and then kill the cops. Why would you advocate this? It seems to me like an extremely scummy idea.

I'm not saying you're scum (yet), but explain what you're trying to say please.



bashful1
Profile Joined April 2011
17 Posts
April 16 2011 13:52 GMT
#52
On April 16 2011 21:46 augustus1 wrote:
So are you advocating a mass claiming?

No, he was recommending that you claim before you hang. Or at least that's what I think.

I haven't thought through the idea of a mass claim. Early mass claim will lead to everyone claiming townie because, well, mafia won't want to gamble, and blues will want to stay hidden. I would say we should definitely mass claim at LYLO though.

##Vote Grumpy1

Agreed with the post critic, have some pressure.
augustus1
Profile Joined April 2011
20 Posts
April 16 2011 13:59 GMT
#53
On April 16 2011 22:41 caligula1 wrote:
happy - that looks sound. Unless vig/medic or something else happens I would agree with that

I assume what you mean is that the person being lynched should claim before being lynched. Not that there should be any mass claim.

Are we allowed vote for a no lynch?

How does a medic "happen"? If you read the OP you will see that the medic is not informed if they do a successful protect. Nor is the person they protected.

Actually I'm thinking right now the scum team just outed itself.
Happy and Caligula.
augustus1
Profile Joined April 2011
20 Posts
April 16 2011 14:02 GMT
#54
On April 16 2011 22:52 bashful1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2011 21:46 augustus1 wrote:
So are you advocating a mass claiming?

No, he was recommending that you claim before you hang. Or at least that's what I think.

I haven't thought through the idea of a mass claim. Early mass claim will lead to everyone claiming townie because, well, mafia won't want to gamble, and blues will want to stay hidden. I would say we should definitely mass claim at LYLO though.

##Vote Grumpy1

Agreed with the post critic, have some pressure.

Claiming at lynch is fine and all but it doesn't really mean anything.
Claiming before that is suicide.
bashful1
Profile Joined April 2011
17 Posts
April 16 2011 14:13 GMT
#55
On April 16 2011 23:02 augustus1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2011 22:52 bashful1 wrote:
On April 16 2011 21:46 augustus1 wrote:
So are you advocating a mass claiming?

No, he was recommending that you claim before you hang. Or at least that's what I think.

I haven't thought through the idea of a mass claim. Early mass claim will lead to everyone claiming townie because, well, mafia won't want to gamble, and blues will want to stay hidden. I would say we should definitely mass claim at LYLO though.

##Vote Grumpy1

Agreed with the post critic, have some pressure.

Claiming at lynch is fine and all but it doesn't really mean anything.
Claiming before that is suicide.

It's extra information to the town. For example a mafia claiming a blue role before he hang could be called out on a lie by a blue of the same type. It might save us from mislynching blue. Mass claim at LYLO is a last chance to catch scum in a lie.

Of course, every claim should always be taken critically.
augustus1
Profile Joined April 2011
20 Posts
April 16 2011 14:16 GMT
#56
In this setup it's all WIFOM
bashful1
Profile Joined April 2011
17 Posts
April 16 2011 14:22 GMT
#57
On April 16 2011 23:16 augustus1 wrote:
In this setup it's all WIFOM

That's just fear mongering. We know that we can only have a limited amount of blue's, judging by the number of players and mafia, and we get our one confirmation of alignment. It can verify or disprove alignment and thus lies up to that point.
caligula1
Profile Joined April 2011
39 Posts
April 16 2011 14:24 GMT
#58
On April 16 2011 22:59 augustus1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2011 22:41 caligula1 wrote:
happy - that looks sound. Unless vig/medic or something else happens I would agree with that

I assume what you mean is that the person being lynched should claim before being lynched. Not that there should be any mass claim.

Are we allowed vote for a no lynch?

How does a medic "happen"? If you read the OP you will see that the medic is not informed if they do a successful protect. Nor is the person they protected.

Actually I'm thinking right now the scum team just outed itself.
Happy and Caligula.


Cos hurr durr someone won't die.
augustus1
Profile Joined April 2011
20 Posts
April 16 2011 14:35 GMT
#59
On April 16 2011 23:24 caligula1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2011 22:59 augustus1 wrote:
On April 16 2011 22:41 caligula1 wrote:
happy - that looks sound. Unless vig/medic or something else happens I would agree with that

I assume what you mean is that the person being lynched should claim before being lynched. Not that there should be any mass claim.

Are we allowed vote for a no lynch?

How does a medic "happen"? If you read the OP you will see that the medic is not informed if they do a successful protect. Nor is the person they protected.

Actually I'm thinking right now the scum team just outed itself.
Happy and Caligula.


Cos hurr durr someone won't die.

Hurr durr the medic will hurr durr.

On April 16 2011 23:22 bashful1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2011 23:16 augustus1 wrote:
In this setup it's all WIFOM

That's just fear mongering. We know that we can only have a limited amount of blue's, judging by the number of players and mafia, and we get our one confirmation of alignment. It can verify or disprove alignment and thus lies up to that point.

I'm not fear mongering. I'm pointing out the futility of role claiming.
There will be NO flip reveals. However once per game, starting night two the town may vote to reveal the remaining mafia count, and the alignment of the next person lynched. The mafia count will come with the day post.
This voting takes place during night. This power can only be used ONCE.

We do not get a confirmation of alignment. We get a mafia headcount and the alignment of the person we are going to lynch. We can do that once.
Say we get a count of 1 back after 3 lynches. We know one person lied. Whoopy. The 2 that didn't lie are just as dead. All we know is we still have 1 scum left. We don't know how many blues or greens are left. We know we have 1 scum and we know the alignment of the next lynch victim. None of this information has any bearing on roles.
caligula1
Profile Joined April 2011
39 Posts
April 16 2011 15:09 GMT
#60
On April 16 2011 23:35 augustus1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 16 2011 23:24 caligula1 wrote:
Cos hurr durr someone won't die.

Hurr durr the medic will hurr durr.

Medic successfully protects -> No one dies
Vig hits someone -> extra death that night
Veteran gets hit -> No one dies

You are either trolling or dense, neither are good qualities.

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