TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 4

On March 22 2011 02:49 Rean wrote:


Right now you're REALLY making me think you're a DT aligned to mafia. This doesn't prove anything.

On March 22 2011 20:43 Rean wrote:
Format:

Name - alignment - what he claims to be - what his powers have done so far

Meapak - dead town - Warp Prism toy, description: + Show Spoiler +


Mr. Wiggles - unknown - n.a. - has made alot of posts in favor of town, was supportive of just about everything town has done so far. He's a little bit TO pro-town for my liking, maybe a good target for a DT check?


GGQ - unknown - n.a. - Very actively pro-town day 1, hasn't said a damn thing day 2. Some serious scum vibes from him aswell, maybe he got hot feet from darmousseh's plan? Interested hearing his defense.


OriginalName - town - has been very quiet all game, confirmed townie by darmousseh.


Kenpachi - dead unconfirmed, will flip over at the end of tonight - n.a. - n.a.


annul - unconfirmed - claims DT role and claims to be a miller - has given a role name: Twin Boy Toy Dante, shouted out to him in some sort of secret message before darmousseh's plan went into motion, making it likely he's town. not entirely cleared though.


bumatlarge - unconfirmed - n.a. - against voting initially, pulled Keifru to see his wall power, but also pushed Annul in the same post without any explanation??? He probably did it to fill up a spot so Keifru would skip that row (since details of Keifru's powers weren't known by then), but just pushing like that without explanation isn't the best idea ever. Is also highly in favor of killing annul day 2, maybe he's mafia and he knows annul is a miller DT and he wants to get rid of him?


kitaman27 - town - has been confirmed town, but is extremely aggresive in his play, constantly pushing others to reveal their ability's, pushing them on the defensive, and also gets very aggresive when someone started suspecting him. Honestly, he might've been cleared, but with the way he tries to force others to reveal their roles i'm starting to suspect he might be the Godfather of the mafia team.


Keifru - unconfirmed - claims to be Snorlax Toy - he takes up two spots in the queue, it takes two PoP's to move him. So far everything points to this being true, his alignment is still to be found, but behavior inclines me to believe he's town.


Insanious - unconfirmed - claims to be a hybrid stalker/vigilante - his claimed role can investigate someone at night, and if they get killed, he gets put within two spots of his killer in the queue. Since darmousseh cleared all possible targets outside of Kenpachi, town used their power to pull Kenpachi near Insanious, and he used his vigilante powers to kill him. His story checks out so he's likely to be speaking the truth, but Kenpachi's flip will confirm it.


chaoser - unconfirmed - n.a. - Acts very back and forth day 1, being both pro-town and making some stupid actions pointing him towards being mafia. Day 2 he seems very eager to have annul killed, again, could be that he's mafia and knows that annul is a town DT.


darmousseh - town - some sort of mafia radar - He has a ability to turn himself into a mafia radar. Once he activates this he gives up his PoP's for the day, and if he's moved, the radar shuts down again. He needs atleast two town people near him to activate his special power. The radar confirmed annul to be mafia (might be miller though). He confirmed Originalname/Kitaman/RoL/Rean to be town before his ability shut down by being moved, most likely by mafia interference.


RoL - town - hasn't claimed powers yet but was confirmed by Darmousseh to be town.


GMarshal - unconfirmed - n.a. - Seems pro-town, not very sure about him.


Eiii - unconfirmed - claims to be the Hulk Toy : + Show Spoiler + - We should test his powers, i'd put him under some suspicion since his queue manipulating ability could've been what pushed darmousseh (although it'd be plain stupid to claim if you're mafia and know you can stop darmousseh, so consider him town for now). I suggest making him move someone and see what happens to their queue position. Eiii, can you describe roughly what your queue manipulating ability does?


CubEdIn - unconfirmed - no roleclaims, getting some serious town vibes though, but that doesn't confirm anything.


Rean - town - hasn't claimed powers yet but confirmed Darmousseh to be town.

On March 22 2011 23:31 Rean wrote:
.....the fuck? Don't you think you'd want to, maaaaybe, talk that over before you do things like that, and just maybe give some sort of explanation? I mean, what's your reasoning for doing so other than " don't believe him"?

On March 22 2011 23:54 Rean wrote:
Maybe wait to see what other people think about it? Maybe use his DT ability to check out someone else?
You're basically ignoring the arguments in favor of him being town (the unlikeliness of him being a mafia DT, the fact that he tried to reveal himself as a DT before being under pressure with a hidden message and the fact that several of the unconfirmed people seem to favor just killing him despite these arguments), and together with the fact that your entire gameplan seems to consist of "pressure everyone to openly reveal their roles, get as much detail of how their power works" really is making me feel like you're the godfather of the entire mafia gang.

On March 23 2011 01:22 Rean wrote:
Well, i'd say that right about now:

ANYONE WHO POSTS FROM NOW ON, USE YOUR POPS, so we can see if the mafia's ability removes the ability to pop. If you post and don't pop anyone whatsoever, then be ready to either give a damn good reason as to why you didn't pull, or be lynched.

On March 23 2011 08:03 Rean wrote:



Don't prove you have a power, but prove that you're a townie. NEWSFLASH: Mafia toys have powers to, and powers that mess with the queue sounds very useful for mafia to me.

So the options i see currently:

- Your power lets you swap position with someone in the queue, meaning that once you're on spot 1 you'll swap yourself with someone to save your ass, or maybe even take a high-power townie and pull him off as soon as you perform the switch.

- You're talking out of your ass <--- Leaning towards this one

Also, you were promoting putting everyone closer to the fire, and if you do have a role to mess with the queue that'd put everyone in danger. Not something a townie would do.


If you can prove you're a townie, right now would be the perfect time to do so.

On March 23 2011 09:20 Rean wrote:



.....shit, that has to be the worst excuse i've ever seen in my entire life.

Honestly, if this was a casino, the odds would be 100 to 1 of you being red right now.

On March 28 2011 20:52 Rean wrote:


1. Are you calling me scum?
2. Nobody is acting surprised that scum used their power on Lemon, and you would know that if you stopped being a tunneling idiot and actually tried to READ what people are saying >.>

Right now you're just tunneling Tackster, completely ignoring any arguments made. That's not helping town at all.

On March 28 2011 19:53 Rean wrote:



And maybe you should stop for a second and think: why?

Role reversal is a powerful ability. Randomly using it on someone, that'd be silly. So they definitely used it on Lemonwalrus for a reason.

Now, what could that reason be?

Assume Lemonwalrus is scum: they'd be using it on him to make sure that he will not be detected by DT's. A logical thing to do.

Assume he's town: they used it on him in the hopes that the DT would check out Lemonwalrus. A long shot, especially considering that Tack was the main suspect, AND that blue's would also want some sort of confirmation that Jackal and Coagulation aren't making a huge mistake trusting each other.

However, if Lemon is town, Tackster is almost certainly mafia, and Tackster was sure to get DT'd with all the suspicion around him. So they'd be much better off using it on Tackster instead, to avoid having him being suspected.

I'm not to familiar with all the crazy roles mafia could have, but this certainly isn't the work of a framer role (if framer means they can choose someone and he appears as whatever the framer wants to DT checks), because a framer would've simply picked him to show up as town.

The only other option is that Lemonwalrus is indeed the Godfather and he picked to show up as blue roles. That could've been either a newbie mistake (he's new afterall), or he choose it to mess with everyone's mind.



Either way, i'd say the chances of Lemonwalrus being mafia are much higher then Tackster being mafia.

And to top this all off: his item claim seems dodgy to me. All items in this game were balanced to force you to make a choice: use, steal or defend. However, Lemon claims his item is passive. That doesn't fit in at all with the other items, as his vest would be by far the strongest item, since he only has to steal or defend, use happens automatically. I call bullshit on his item claim for exactly these reasons.


Conclusion:

Lemonwalrus, i accuse thee of being SCUM.

On March 28 2011 21:46 Rean wrote:


Translation: i'm gonna tunnel the shit out of Tackster, completely ignoring any arguments whatsoever. If you don't like it, deal with it.

Such a helpful attitude......

Everyone gets lucky once in a while.

If you really are so damn sure that Lemon is town, GIVE US SOLID REASONS.
All you've said so far is "dw guys, trust me, i'm pro lol, it's cool". That's nowhere near a good reason.

On March 25 2011 05:41 Rean wrote:
Alright. Right now i'm in favor of voting Bum, however, with the possibility of a counter-claim scenario where we'd want to elect a different mayor in mind, i fear for the future of town with the current candidates, with Chaoser being the only one guaranteeing the day 1 lynch to be decided by voting.
And considering that, from what i've seen, Chaoser is way to impulsive (not sure if that's the word, i mean letting emotions cloud your clear thinking) and arrogant/proud, i don't trust him as a Mayor.

Therefore, i'm going to make myself a candidate aswell.

- I'm going to decide day 1 lynch by everyone getting 1 vote (obviously including myself), exactly how a normal lynch would go.
- I will continue to speak my mind and do the analysis i always do (a person-by-person analysis taking into account everything said regarding/by them).
- I will not give my vote to RoL blindly.

I realize that i'm rather unknown on TL Mafia, and that DF mafia made me look like a fucking moron the way i let myself get played, but that will NOT happen again.

On March 29 2011 03:19 Rean wrote:
Alright. So what happened here tonight:

First off, tnkted swapped Lemonwalrus and Bum.
Therefore, the DT check on Lemonwalrus was redirected to Bum, who returned blue, making the DT check useless.

The items:

There were 5 item game players alive:

Annul stole from Tackster, he got his mood ring.
Jackal has had his bandages stolen from him. He seems to have either tried to use them, or was stealing from someone, but was unsuccesful.
Coagulation claims he fired at Tackster.
Lemonwalrus defended his own item.
Tackster stole the bandages from Jackal.

Alright, everyone accounted for.

Then, the big mystery: who shot who?



So the person in this story is more then likely Coagulation. However, he fired his shot at Tackster, not annul! That doesn't make alot of sense.

There was also another shot on annul. The money question is: was this from the red or the black party? No way to tell for now.



Well, that's weird. The kidnapping part is hard to explain here, maybe a roleblocker? I don't know. However, considering he was a bodyguard, the shot was more then likely fired at the mayor. Funny enough, the mayor was bussed with Lemonwalrus, so the shot must've been either directly on GMarshal (why would they do that?) or it was meant for Lemonwalrus. Mystery's.



This indicates a lot of things:
1. Someone failed to shoot someone. Maybe red shot a black, maybe black shot a vigilante, maybe either one shot a medic'd person. Who knows.
2. Someone left gifts. I'm not to familiar with mafia roles but this probably indicates a Mad Hatter role? Not sure.
3. Another PERSON (note how it's not plural) bussed someone. That indicates only one person got bussed.




Now, let's figure out who shot who.

Avaible shots:
Coagulation: 1.
Mafia: 2.
Black: 1.

1 of the shots failed, 2 of the shots hit annul,
1 shot killed GMarshal the bodyguard.

Now, let's look at the following fact: Black has no interest in the item-game. They're already a man down, they lost the item-game and their CEO is dead. They're behind big-time, and speeding up the item-game would only be detrimental to their chances of survival. Let town and mafia fuck around with IG, they can start picking people off.

So, there's two possibility's: black fired randomly on GMarshal and got lucky. A chance of 30-1(darmousseh)-1(bum)-5(item-game players) = 1 in 23. I don't like those odds.

Possibility two: they fired at the person that survived. Far more likely, they could've fired at a veteran.


Then, we have Coagulation's shot. He claims this was fired at Tackster. There was no bus-driver to swap them around, and since Tackster was still alive, this is obviously bullshit. Lying about who you fired on, that's not very nice of you, Coagulation. Care to explain?

Finally, there's our mafia shooters. 2 shots. Obviously, they're not gonna hit the same person twice. So their shots were aimed at Annul, and either Lemonwalrus or GMarshal. Annul would make sense, he's an item-game player, and they're thinning the numbers so they can win the item-game. Then, the other shot: this was fired at either Lemon or GM. However, since mafia is so focused on the item-game at this point, it wouldn't make sense to randomly start shooting outside of the item-game. The possibility of them firing at Bum is so retarded i'm not even going to mention it.

So, they fired their shots at Annul and Lemonwalrus. Two logical choices at thinning out the item-game. However, due to tnkted's interference, Lemonwalrus was saved.

Therefore, the conclusion I draw is the following:

Black used their shot to hit somebody that survived the assault. The failed shot in the post.
Red used their first shot on Annul, eliminating him.
Their second shot killed GMarshal. Either they directly fired at him (VERY unlikely), or they decided to hit Lemonwalrus, and got pwned by tnkted.
Coagulation hit annul. Why would he do that? The only explanation in the thread so far has been mind-control, which seems like a long shot to me. However, it's also the only shot, as no-one else can explain what happened.



If anyone disagrees with this analysis feel free to say so.

On April 12 2011 23:06 Rean wrote:


I'm trying out this new scum strategy: lurk really hardcore and only respond every once every 8 or so hours with meaningless posts, while simultaniously posting a ton in another mafia thread, so i can avoid any suspicion. If anyone accuses me: ignore it.

Is it working?

On April 12 2011 23:10 Rean wrote:


Nah, he's my teammate but he's putting the "ask stupid questions and look like a total newbie" method to the test. I'm trying out the strategy I explained above

On April 12 2011 23:29 Rean wrote:


Don't complain, we want them to kill town so they don't lynch us. We talked over this yesterday, remember?

On April 13 2011 17:12 Rean wrote:


I'm saying that if he's a assassin, he just made the read on Coagulation because it's pretty easy to see he's scum based on his posting. He's a veteran player after all, it wouldn't be all that far-fetched.

Sure, he'd be lying his ass off but he's not actually being detrimental to town so /care.

On April 13 2011 17:01 Rean wrote:


Yeah, nice try. Except my first mafia game here was Death Factory (townie twin with RoL), second game Insane Mafia 2.



As for the Coagulation affair: looking through all of his previous posts, two things really stand out above all: he is extremely paranoid of Prot becoming mayor, freaking out whenever it seems likely that he's being elected only to continue lurking once the threat dies down.

Secondly, he has another classic "100% town guys dw had town read all along" read a la Lemonwalrus on GMarshal, despite the fact that alot of people have being pointing out how scummy GMarshal has been all along. I don't know, but I doubt anyone not mafia buddy's with him would trust their reads this much when alot of others are doubting him. Then again, that's what I thought in Insane Mafia 2 aswell and look how that turned out >.>

If I had to guess right now, i'd say that both Coagulation and GMarshal are red.


Protactinium: I honestly don't fucking know if you're assassin or DT, and quite frankly I couldn't care less. Being a veteran player you could've easily made that read as a assassin.

Right now i'd say we lynch Coagulation and if he flips red, medic Prot. If he flips green (doubtful) Prot dies.

On April 13 2011 17:35 Rean wrote:
That just about seals the deal. Cya Coagulation.

On April 13 2011 22:07 Rean wrote:


Is he one of your scumbuddy's?