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On March 25 2011 08:05 Rean wrote:
and how do we know that with you we're not voting said black player to be our mayor? that'd be awful now wouldn't it?
nominating the black player in item game doesn't LOSE us as much as we would GAIN by nominating a green in item game, if that makes sense. black already has nighttime immunity, which is what we are trying to get to green by nominating a green in item game.
the bad situation would be to nominate the red in item game, actually.
but since i am green and not red nor black, there isn't this problem <3
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On March 25 2011 07:59 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 07:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On March 25 2011 07:27 annul wrote:On March 25 2011 07:26 chaoser wrote:1. my policy is "any item game player is better than current slate of candidates." given that, of course i am going to try to get the mayorship. my policy for determining lynch? kill who i think is black. @annul Why only say kill who you think is black and not who you think is red or black because black players can only die in the daytime, so in the item game, i want to take a swing at someone when i control the kill, so the town doesnt get misled and start voting to lynch people not in item game So why not aim for reds either? It shouldn't make a difference to kill red/black if all you want to do is get people looking at the item game players. You would only worry about hitting blacks more than reds if you were expecting KP to kill the red, which could only come from a black, or vigi-shot. If you killed the black, they have no reason to really kill players in the item game, outside of if they wanted to help mafia/town. So this is either bad logic, or a mafia-slip. are you retarded? the ONLY WAY we win the item game is to use a DAY kill (mayor kill or normal lynch) on the black player in item game (assuming no nonstandard abilities). therefore, of course i am going to try to find the black player in item game if i am elected mayor.
There are currently 4/4 Townies remaining.
There is currently 1/1 Mafia remaining.
There is currently 1/1 Third Party remaining.
No need to resort to personal attacks, maybe this is just another case of you failing to read the OP. If you hadn't noticed, but in addition to one third party player, there is also One Mafia in the item game as well. So, it seems like a huge slip, when you say you want to try to kill the black player, and make no mention of the red player also playing in the item game. The ONLY WAY (As town) to win the item game, is to use a DAY kill, to kill BOTH the red and black player, (barring vigi's if they even exist). From my point of view, that looked like you're red, and you screwed up only mentioning gunning for the black player, who if you were red, would be immune to NK, and thus a huge threat.
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On March 25 2011 08:06 annul wrote:
oh hey red has 2 KP apparently
what is the KP formula for the red team?
No comment...
From now on Annul, before you ask a questions check if it is answered in the OP.
If Yes, don't ask the question.
If No, you probably don't need to know the answer, so don't ask the question.
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On March 25 2011 08:08 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:05 Rean wrote:
and how do we know that with you we're not voting said black player to be our mayor? that'd be awful now wouldn't it?
nominating the black player in item game doesn't LOSE us as much as we would GAIN by nominating a green in item game, if that makes sense. black already has nighttime immunity, which is what we are trying to get to green by nominating a green in item game. the bad situation would be to nominate the red in item game, actually. but since i am green and not red nor black, there isn't this problem <3
It's a risk that i wouldn't consider to be worth it, especially if there's no counter-claim on Bum.
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"no comment" is sufficient, god.
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On March 25 2011 08:10 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 07:59 annul wrote:On March 25 2011 07:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On March 25 2011 07:27 annul wrote:On March 25 2011 07:26 chaoser wrote:1. my policy is "any item game player is better than current slate of candidates." given that, of course i am going to try to get the mayorship. my policy for determining lynch? kill who i think is black. @annul Why only say kill who you think is black and not who you think is red or black because black players can only die in the daytime, so in the item game, i want to take a swing at someone when i control the kill, so the town doesnt get misled and start voting to lynch people not in item game So why not aim for reds either? It shouldn't make a difference to kill red/black if all you want to do is get people looking at the item game players. You would only worry about hitting blacks more than reds if you were expecting KP to kill the red, which could only come from a black, or vigi-shot. If you killed the black, they have no reason to really kill players in the item game, outside of if they wanted to help mafia/town. So this is either bad logic, or a mafia-slip. are you retarded? the ONLY WAY we win the item game is to use a DAY kill (mayor kill or normal lynch) on the black player in item game (assuming no nonstandard abilities). therefore, of course i am going to try to find the black player in item game if i am elected mayor. Show nested quote +There are currently 4/4 Townies remaining.
There is currently 1/1 Mafia remaining.
There is currently 1/1 Third Party remaining. No need to resort to personal attacks, maybe this is just another case of you failing to read the OP. If you hadn't noticed, but in addition to one third party player, there is also One Mafia in the item game as well. So, it seems like a huge slip, when you say you want to try to kill the black player, and make no mention of the red player also playing in the item game. The ONLY WAY (As town) to win the item game, is to use a DAY kill, to kill BOTH the red and black player, (barring vigi's if they even exist). From my point of view, that looked like you're red, and you screwed up only mentioning gunning for the black player, who if you were red, would be immune to NK, and thus a huge threat.
"The ONLY WAY (As town) to win the item game, is to use a DAY kill, to kill BOTH the red and black player, (barring vigi's if they even exist)."
this is false.
black can night kill the red in item game. it seems you do not actually run all permutations before you speak.
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@ annul:
- the fact that you're in the item game doesn't mean you have to kill the other players there. It's already been said that town will start looking there, since there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black, so just be pro-town bro!
- having a confirmed blue mayor is better than giving it to someone in the item game with a 33% chance of that someone being red/black
Bodyguards are random, so it doesn't really matter who they're gonna be, but what matters is that we'll have a protected blue.
So you're asking us to pick between:
- protected blue, 100% confirmed unless counter-claims
- 66% shot of giving it to scum, and having said scum protected against blacks (if he turns out red)
I'll take the first one thanks.
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and by the way, if you read my earlier posts, you will see it is crystal clear i know exactly the situation with item game, since ive only been arguing math this entire night 0 phase
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"since there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black"
there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black in the entire game as well.
"having a confirmed blue mayor is better than giving it to someone in the item game with a 33% chance of that someone being red/black"
1. i disagree with this premise on its face;
2. bum is NOT CONFIRMED. the lack of a counterclaim does not "confirm" him as a blue.
it is much better to have a protected player in item game to get a 4/6 better chance at SIX abilities than to protect someone who MIGHT be a blue and who might have ONE ability worth saving. i am thinking long term (as in, day 5 and beyond) and you are stuck in day 1. think big. this will be a very long game.
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Just got home from school.
Honestly, this is my second game ever (Mafia 37). I have never played with a mayor before so i dont really know how they contribute later on in the game. Therefore i dont really know how the mayor position affects the middle and end of the game. I am going to go back to other games with mayors(suggestions pls)and try and figure out how they effect those points in the game.
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also,
"- 66% shot of giving it to scum, and having said scum protected against blacks (if he turns out red)"
no. its 33% to give to scum; 16.6% chance to give to the black player which changes NOTHING in terms of his ability to win item game. the worst-case scenario is to give mayor to the red in item game, since that means black's optimal strat (to night kill the red) cant work. therefore, since it's really only a 1/6 chance of making a bad decision (mayor to red in item game), 1/6 chance to not really affect anything (relative to item game), and 4/6 to completely negate black's inherent advantage and possibly win us SIX (!!!!!!!!) new abilities to use as a team... why are you resisting against this?
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On March 25 2011 08:18 annul wrote:
"since there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black"
there's a 1:3 shot to get a red/black in the entire game as well.
"having a confirmed blue mayor is better than giving it to someone in the item game with a 33% chance of that someone being red/black"
1. i disagree with this premise on its face;
2. bum is NOT CONFIRMED. the lack of a counterclaim does not "confirm" him as a blue.
it is much better to have a protected player in item game to get a 4/6 better chance at SIX abilities than to protect someone who MIGHT be a blue and who might have ONE ability worth saving. i am thinking long term (as in, day 5 and beyond) and you are stuck in day 1. think big. this will be a very long game.
The lack of a counter-claim DOES confirm him as blue. If things stay that way 'till the end of day one, then he is blue.
If "other" blues exist but decide not to counter-claim, the game is pretty much lost anyway.
So no, it's protect someone who WILL be blue and a decent scumhunter. Decent scumhunting > one ability. Think big.
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and, of course, it's a 0% chance to give it to scum if you give it to me. but even if you dont, i would be willing to vote for an item game candidate as a priori over anyone else even if it isnt me, because then it's still only a 20% chance to give it to the red, and 6/30 is 20% anyway.
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On March 25 2011 08:22 annul wrote:
also,
"- 66% shot of giving it to scum, and having said scum protected against blacks (if he turns out red)"
no. its 33% to give to scum; 16.6% chance to give to the black player which changes NOTHING in terms of his ability to win item game. the worst-case scenario is to give mayor to the red in item game, since that means black's optimal strat (to night kill the red) cant work. therefore, since it's really only a 1/6 chance of making a bad decision (mayor to red in item game), 1/6 chance to not really affect anything (relative to item game), and 4/6 to completely negate black's inherent advantage and possibly win us SIX (!!!!!!!!) new abilities to use as a team... why are you resisting against this?
Are you saying that if black ends up with an item or more, they will have 0 chances of using them against town? Seriously?
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(yes, I meant 66% of giving it to town as opposed to 100%, but I changed my mind, forgot to change percentage).
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On March 25 2011 08:13 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:10 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On March 25 2011 07:59 annul wrote:On March 25 2011 07:35 Mr. Wiggles wrote:On March 25 2011 07:27 annul wrote:On March 25 2011 07:26 chaoser wrote:1. my policy is "any item game player is better than current slate of candidates." given that, of course i am going to try to get the mayorship. my policy for determining lynch? kill who i think is black. @annul Why only say kill who you think is black and not who you think is red or black because black players can only die in the daytime, so in the item game, i want to take a swing at someone when i control the kill, so the town doesnt get misled and start voting to lynch people not in item game So why not aim for reds either? It shouldn't make a difference to kill red/black if all you want to do is get people looking at the item game players. You would only worry about hitting blacks more than reds if you were expecting KP to kill the red, which could only come from a black, or vigi-shot. If you killed the black, they have no reason to really kill players in the item game, outside of if they wanted to help mafia/town. So this is either bad logic, or a mafia-slip. are you retarded? the ONLY WAY we win the item game is to use a DAY kill (mayor kill or normal lynch) on the black player in item game (assuming no nonstandard abilities). therefore, of course i am going to try to find the black player in item game if i am elected mayor. There are currently 4/4 Townies remaining.
There is currently 1/1 Mafia remaining.
There is currently 1/1 Third Party remaining. No need to resort to personal attacks, maybe this is just another case of you failing to read the OP. If you hadn't noticed, but in addition to one third party player, there is also One Mafia in the item game as well. So, it seems like a huge slip, when you say you want to try to kill the black player, and make no mention of the red player also playing in the item game. The ONLY WAY (As town) to win the item game, is to use a DAY kill, to kill BOTH the red and black player, (barring vigi's if they even exist). From my point of view, that looked like you're red, and you screwed up only mentioning gunning for the black player, who if you were red, would be immune to NK, and thus a huge threat. "The ONLY WAY (As town) to win the item game, is to use a DAY kill, to kill BOTH the red and black player, (barring vigi's if they even exist)." this is false. black can night kill the red in item game. it seems you do not actually run all permutations before you speak.
I already considered this:
If you killed the black, they have no reason to really kill players in the item game, outside of if they wanted to help mafia/town.
By going for the blacks, you remove any vested interest they have in the item game. So what you are saying is you want to go for the black player, singled out from the two scum present, so that then the black team will try to snipe the mafia in the game? That doesn't make any sense at all, and you still haven't explained why you don't mention killing the red who is present in the item game as well, whom you were indeed aware of. So unless you want to rely on the third party killing the red after you remove any interest they have in the item game, what you say is illogical, or a slip.
Town would be worried about killing the scum present in the game, mafia would be worried about killing the black first, who is immune to night kills, especially if they got a free attempt at a snipe like you would if you're elected mayor, killing the rest of the greens would be easy from there.
So why are you so worried about the black, but not the red?
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"The lack of a counter-claim DOES confirm him as blue. If things stay that way 'till the end of day one, then he is blue."
imagine this scenario:
1. hatter
2. multi-shot vig
3. mass medic
4. jack
would any of these 4 give themselves up in a trade 1:1 to take out ONE scum? of course not. each strong empowered player needs to use their abilities to take out MULTIPLE scum. in this game, for all intents and purposes, it's 10 scum vs 20 nonscum. that is 33% scum when standard play is 20% scum. 1:1 trades are no good here.
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On March 25 2011 08:10 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:06 annul wrote:
oh hey red has 2 KP apparently
what is the KP formula for the red team? No comment... From now on Annul, before you ask a questions check if it is answered in the OP. If Yes, don't ask the question. If No, you probably don't need to know the answer, so don't ask the question.
Harsh but INCREDIBLY fair...
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Bottom line is: you're asking me how I am resisting the 80% chance of giving it to a town with items as opposed to the 100% chance of giving it to a decent blue with an ability.
Again, it's a long game, I don't want to end up with a non-town mayor.
Either way, I'll stop arguing about this until tomorrow. Maybe someone will counter-claim and all will be in vain. If nobody does, I'll pick the 100% over 95% anyday.
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On March 25 2011 08:26 annul wrote:
"The lack of a counter-claim DOES confirm him as blue. If things stay that way 'till the end of day one, then he is blue."
imagine this scenario:
1. hatter
2. multi-shot vig
3. mass medic
4. jack
would any of these 4 give themselves up in a trade 1:1 to take out ONE scum? of course not. each strong empowered player needs to use their abilities to take out MULTIPLE scum. in this game, for all intents and purposes, it's 10 scum vs 20 nonscum. that is 33% scum when standard play is 20% scum. 1:1 trades are no good here.
The jack/hatter could easily both claim and ask for a kill of the other person. One of them would be elected mayor, the other one could be medic protected for 3/4/5 nights.
It's not giving yourself up. It's taking out one scum and claiming. There's a big difference. Especially when one of them ends up mayor = invulnerable to night hits for a while.
It's not even a hard choice lol.
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EPT
