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Insane Mafia 2 - Page 117

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
March 28 2011 07:28 GMT
#2321
Hmm. I'm going to take Meapak off my potential scum list. I've looked over his posts and I don't see anything that warrants him being on there, other than his activity level, which has dropped over 400% from his pre-game...


+ Show Spoiler [Math] +
Pre-game: 18 of 317 posts = 0.056% of posts
Post-game: 30 of 1990 posts = 0.013% of posts
0.056%/0.013% = 430% change


Bum, you're being quiet. I assume that you guys are paying attention and analysing this stuff, but town needs some direction and leadership. Give us something to do. Anyone you want analysed/pressured?
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Lanaia
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Canada1142 Posts
March 28 2011 07:29 GMT
#2322
On March 28 2011 15:44 GGQ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2011 15:40 Tackster wrote:
On March 28 2011 15:37 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
My definition is the correct one on this forum. If A shot B but B was bussed with C then A would of actually have shot C. What you are referring to I only ever saw once in ExMiMa. I can't remember what DrH called it though.


On epic mafia it's the other way. Happy to learn!!


Errr, I'm pretty sure that how I described it is how it works on EM, too.


I'm pretty sure it works that way almost everywhere.
The way Tackster described it sounds a lot more like a redirecter, no?
<3 If you chase a mirage, the desert will swallow you.
Lanaia
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Canada1142 Posts
March 28 2011 07:30 GMT
#2323
On March 28 2011 16:00 iGrok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2011 15:56 kevconsim wrote:

Player List of People I Have Reads On


27. iGrok- I dont know where i stand here.(UNsure)



What.



AHAHAHAHAHAH This made me giggle.

kevconsim, bud, if you're gonna make a list of people you have reads on (when pretty much everyone is on the list), I suggest you don't say "I don't know where I stand here." You should just say it's a list of people in the game. iGrok was poking fun at you, I believe.
<3 If you chase a mirage, the desert will swallow you.
kevconsim
Profile Joined November 2010
United States317 Posts
March 28 2011 07:31 GMT
#2324
ok im sorry i just wanted it to be answered cause googling did not come to my mind.

Otherwise i told u what i thought
Just to let you know that if you read really slow that you are in fact reading this beautifully written quote you will have totally wasted like 10 seconds of your life.
kevconsim
Profile Joined November 2010
United States317 Posts
March 28 2011 07:33 GMT
#2325
You asked for a list i gave you everything i knew.

Now im gonna go to sleep soon cause its 12:30 at night and i have school.

I will not be lurking untill around 4:00 tomrow and i have practice at 7:00

I HATE SCHOOL
Just to let you know that if you read really slow that you are in fact reading this beautifully written quote you will have totally wasted like 10 seconds of your life.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
March 28 2011 07:33 GMT
#2326
On March 28 2011 16:05 Tackster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2011 16:03 chaoser wrote:
So you're entire point there was rather than check any points I made just go with

If we lynch tack maybe he's mafia
If not we can gamble to hopefully win the IG

I should just not try and defend myself and agree to gamble the IG away?


WRONG! It's not a gamble. If Jackal is red, like you think he is, then town wins the IG.

The Two hits are LW and Coag for Mafia. They have two KP. We got a vest and lets say 2 medics (standard amount).

1 medic on Coag, 1 medic on LW. There's nothing mafia can do. At the most, they'll kill 1 town.



Ok this game consists of mechanics we dont know about yes?

so:
framers
nerfers
drivers
etc.
+ everything we don't know about

Lemons vest is useless as it can be stolen.

And there's always the chance that Coag or Lemon are scum...

That isn't even close to auto-win


Vest can't be stolen since it's a passive ability and all LW needs to do is protect.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
GGQ
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Canada2653 Posts
March 28 2011 07:36 GMT
#2327
On March 28 2011 15:45 Tackster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2011 15:43 GGQ wrote:
On March 28 2011 15:27 Tackster wrote:
On March 28 2011 15:20 GGQ wrote:
Also, I was gonna point out what Chaoser or Coagulation pointed out above.

If you are town, stealing Jackal's item was retarded. The town thing to do would be to role-check someone. If you lived or died, you would be giving the town some great information. The much simpler explanation is that you are red.


By your standards:

Situation 1:
I DT check and get shot. Town now has more reason to lynch Jackal (GOOD)

Situation 2:
I DT check and some1 else gets shot. I 'claim' a check on Jackal that can't be confirmed and we end up in this situation. (BAD)

Situation 3:
I steal and get the gun. We're now in the same situation as yesterday except town gets to lynch instead of leaving the kill to someone else (VERY GOOD)

Situation 4:
I steal and don't get gun. I am shot. Same situation as 1. (GOOD)

Situation 5:
I steal and don't get gun. I am not shot. We are now in this position.(BAD)


So a DT check either has 50% chance for the positive result you're looking for or 50% this situation comes up.

A steal on the other hand has a 66% chance for a positive result or 33% this situation comes up.


Your logic is poor because you assume that each situation has an equal chance of playing out under each scenario.


LOL actually I stated by your standards. I was being pessimistic. By my standards the chances are much higher...

You realise you're implying the situation YOU suggested would be worse for town right?

Lastly my stats would be poor not my logic and unlike the other players in this thread that can't confirm their abilities I can confirm when I state I am good at stats. Theoretical Physics is not an easy degree to get!


Perhaps not, but it has little to do with stats. For the rest of this post, I feel like you are mixed up in both your semantics and logic, but I'm just going to leave all that alone and try to be more clear.

What I meant is that you are just looking at some percentages without taking the context of the game into account. Let's assume you are a green. You know that all the other townies in the IG want you dead. You know that most of the town has you pegged as scum and wants you dead. Given that your death would NOT result in town losing the item game (there's not enough KP floating around for that), there's no reason for you to try to stay alive. As long as you are around, covered in scum and drawing votes your way, you'll just distract town from finding the real scum tomorrow. If someone is going to shoot you, then you thank them and look forward to seeing jackal hang the next day.

Furthermore, on the chance that you might survive (hey, you never know; it's insane mafia! look at what you are claiming now... you are a green and someone out there somewhere decided to save your ass) you would use your DT check item because you know how valuable a DT check is for town. Even if it's not from a trusted source (you)... you know you are going to die soon (most likely to a lynch the next day) so then town will know your check was true. In that situation, any town with killing power would very much like to know whether or not jackal is scum going into night 2. Instead you have simply shrugged off a DT check from you, saying that it wouldnt be trusted (guilty conscience?).

Finally, on to why your logic was just bad. Take a look back at all those "situations" you listed. Compare your 'bad' situation (5) to your 'very good' one (3). The only difference between these two situations is that you have the gun in the 'very good' one. Seriously. Not only is that bad logic, it's also a possible scumslip in wanting the gun for yourself.

TL;DR stealing instead of inspecting was very anti-town
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
March 28 2011 07:41 GMT
#2328
On March 28 2011 16:28 Kavdragon wrote:
Hmm. I'm going to take Meapak off my potential scum list. I've looked over his posts and I don't see anything that warrants him being on there, other than his activity level, which has dropped over 400% from his pre-game...


+ Show Spoiler [Math] +
Pre-game: 18 of 317 posts = 0.056% of posts
Post-game: 30 of 1990 posts = 0.013% of posts
0.056%/0.013% = 430% change


Bum, you're being quiet. I assume that you guys are paying attention and analysing this stuff, but town needs some direction and leadership. Give us something to do. Anyone you want analysed/pressured?

This math is completely pointless, and I know you are better than that. It is much easier to hold a higher percentage with a smaller number of total posts. Also I don't see how youa re doing this. 18/317 should be around 6% of the total posts in game while 30 of 1990 should be like .03 percent or something else I am too lazy to care about.

So why are you posting completely meaningless numbers?
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
March 28 2011 07:43 GMT
#2329
On March 28 2011 15:11 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Coagulation, I think you are wrong about being the town KP. I think the town must have some other sort of KP independent of you. The IG is meant to reward whichever faction can win it, it doesn't make sense to shove the town's KP into the IG and put it up for grabs without the reds/blacks putting anything else up.

I saw a few other things I wanted to comment on, but I forgot what they were while I was playing diplomacy.

To add to this. Since the items in IG are RNG'd to each person, there is no way you were guaranteed that KP and I can't see LSB just randomly adding in a counter for town if you just somehow drew the lucky number.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
March 28 2011 07:51 GMT
#2330
who said anything about me being guaranteed a KP?
Lanaia
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Canada1142 Posts
March 28 2011 07:52 GMT
#2331
I'm off to bed. I'll be back in around 6-8 hours unless my teachers and university reach an agreement and stop striking, in which case I'll be heading to school.
I look forward to reading oodles of stuff.
<3 If you chase a mirage, the desert will swallow you.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
March 28 2011 07:56 GMT
#2332
dunno why your trying to discredit me so hard ROL
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
March 28 2011 08:05 GMT
#2333
Also my gun is the town KP
I was referred to the town KP in the OP by LSB himself in PM when asking him questions about my abilities after i got my role.
bumatlarge
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States4567 Posts
March 28 2011 08:21 GMT
#2334
Excellent, sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but I have access to a DT within my circle. We checked lemonwalrus. He came back blue police force

While that makes no sense whatsoever since blues cant be in the item game. And of course he is not in my circle.

He has to be the GodFather
Together but separate, like oatmeal
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
March 28 2011 08:24 GMT
#2335
Then theres a role framer.
Who the fuck would put GF in the item game?
and who would make a complete newbie GF?
that doesnt make sense at all.
Why didnt he steal my gun??
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
March 28 2011 08:25 GMT
#2336
dont you think the Mafia would take into consideration that there are no blues in the item game when picking a role for him. they would never give him a blue role.

This doesnt make sense at all.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
March 28 2011 08:26 GMT
#2337
LSB, if someone were to frame someone else and then they got DT checked, what would the result come back as?
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
March 28 2011 08:27 GMT
#2338
it looks to me like the DT check got reversed back into your guy.
Kavdragon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1251 Posts
March 28 2011 08:28 GMT
#2339
On March 28 2011 16:41 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 28 2011 16:28 Kavdragon wrote:
Hmm. I'm going to take Meapak off my potential scum list. I've looked over his posts and I don't see anything that warrants him being on there, other than his activity level, which has dropped over 400% from his pre-game...


+ Show Spoiler [Math] +
Pre-game: 18 of 317 posts = 0.056% of posts
Post-game: 30 of 1990 posts = 0.013% of posts
0.056%/0.013% = 430% change


Bum, you're being quiet. I assume that you guys are paying attention and analysing this stuff, but town needs some direction and leadership. Give us something to do. Anyone you want analysed/pressured?

This math is completely pointless, and I know you are better than that. It is much easier to hold a higher percentage with a smaller number of total posts. Also I don't see how youa re doing this. 18/317 should be around 6% of the total posts in game while 30 of 1990 should be like .03 percent or something else I am too lazy to care about.

So why are you posting completely meaningless numbers?


lol. I try math to point out something and I sill fail. The point was that Meapak has not been posting as much since the start of the game, hence the spoiler. This isn't really a reason for or against him though, I now realize.

I posted it because it was going to be the first part of my analysis on him, but then I read the rest of his posts, and didn't pick up on enough to justify calling him scum. So I scrapped the argument, but decided to put that up with my retraction of his name from my list.

+ Show Spoiler [math fixes] +

It should have read 0.056 or 5.6%.
30 out of 2307 is .013 (or 1.3%), I forgot to correct this to 30/1990 is about 1.5%
The end product should be something like 370% decrease

Remind me to check my math next time I use it.
I'm currently on an indefinite hiatus from TL =(
Coagulation
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States9633 Posts
March 28 2011 08:29 GMT
#2340
A black probably did it in hopes that Red would shoot lemon
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