Orgah Mafia - Page 2

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 18 2011 03:33 GMT

#883

(2) Gryffindor: beefy187, thefluffyone93
(1) Believer: JBright
(3) thefluffyone93: GMarshal, Insanious, SiNiquity

Day will end at Friday, Feb 18 8:00am EST. Sadly I'm turning in now.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 18 2011 21:59 GMT

#905

Martok is the executor

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 00:15 GMT

#993

On February 20 2011 09:02 chaoser wrote:

Show nested quote +

I can not say

???

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 00:32 GMT

#996

Night actions this game

(2) Night 1: Bumatlarge, Ace killed. Ace attempted to kidnap aidnai.
(3) Night 2: Brownbear, Node killed. Why killed.
(2) Night 3: Coagulation killed. Aidnai killed.
(3) Night 4: JBright, Believer killed. deconduo killed.

Day actions this game

(2) Day 1: zerroth lynched, LunarDestiny suicided.
(2) Day 2: Kitaman is killed during the day. Misder is lynched.
(5) Day 2 mod-kills: me_viet, ELITECubWarman8, SouthRawrea, Johnhughthom, Project Psycho
(2) Day 3: Mr. Wiggles killed by Reenk Roink. GGQ lynched.
(2) Day 3 mod-kills: darmousseh (roleclaimed in PMs), ilovejon (roleclaimed in PMs)
(1) Day 4: thefluffyone93 lynched.

So nights 2 and 4 were the ones with additional kills. At present it seems obvious now that there's a 3rd party killer, but I haven't seen much thought given on to how this 3rd party works. Here are the possibilities I've come up with:

The 3rd party can start killing people starting Night 2. This means that in between nights 2 and 3 a mafia grunt was killed (i.e. Day 3), and nights 3 and 4 (i.e. Day 4) a mafia grunt was killed. Thus one person from each bullet is mafia:
- Day 3: Mr. Wiggles, GGQ, darmousseh, ilovejon
- Day 4: thefluffyone93
Ppever's post after day 3 seems to hint that at least some anti-town forces have died:
On February 16 2011 22:33 pevergreen wrote:
ilovejonn has been modkilled for breaking the rules.

I was going to do a role update and reveal the number of remaining anti-town players etc, but after the breaking of rules, no.

So I find this the most likely possibility. This would also imply that thefluffyone93 was definitively mafia, and probably darmousseh (given his victory conditions appear to be red text).
The 3rd party can kill more and more people as time goes on, but can only kill every other night. So 1 on night 2 and 2 on night 4. This would mean that there's only 1 mafia on the list above, or 2 and 1 of those killed was the GF. Only not screwed if 2 killed, but in this case it'd be imperative to kill the SK else 3 kills on night 6 would obliterate the rest of the town. This seems a bit OP, so I'm leaning against it.

We're screwed possibilities (i.e. ignore these, but for completeness some other ones I thought up):

The 3rd party is only allowed to hit once every other night. This would imply either:
- ~~2 mafia died in between nights 3 and 4~~ (only thefluffyone93 died, so no).
- There are 3 mafia, 1 SK and 2 town. Either way we lose as far as I can tell, so I'm not giving this one too much credence in the spirit of optimism.
The 3rd party is allowed to hit once starting Night 2 but is immune to night hits (popular in TL setups, idk about Totalwar, can a totalwar vet clarify?). Mafia attempted to kill SK on night 3 but were unable to do so. Again this would imply 3 mafia, 1 SK, 2 town. And again, this would mean it's SK vs Mafia and thus we're screwed, so I'm not putting too much thought into this.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 01:36 GMT

#1003

+ Show Spoiler [My Previous Post] +

On February 20 2011 09:32 SiNiquity wrote:
Night actions this game

(2) Night 1: Bumatlarge, Ace killed. Ace attempted to kidnap aidnai.
(3) Night 2: Brownbear, Node killed. Why killed.
(2) Night 3: Coagulation killed. Aidnai killed.
(3) Night 4: JBright, Believer killed. deconduo killed.

Day actions this game

(2) Day 1: zerroth lynched, LunarDestiny suicided.
(2) Day 2: Kitaman is killed during the day. Misder is lynched.
(5) Day 2 mod-kills: me_viet, ELITECubWarman8, SouthRawrea, Johnhughthom, Project Psycho
(2) Day 3: Mr. Wiggles killed by Reenk Roink. GGQ lynched.
(2) Day 3 mod-kills: darmousseh (roleclaimed in PMs), ilovejon (roleclaimed in PMs)
(1) Day 4: thefluffyone93 lynched.

The 3rd party can start killing people starting Night 2. This means that in between nights 2 and 3 a mafia grunt was killed (i.e. Day 3), and nights 3 and 4 (i.e. Day 4) a mafia grunt was killed. Thus one person from each bullet is mafia:
- Day 3: Mr. Wiggles, GGQ, darmousseh, ilovejon
- Day 4: thefluffyone93
Ppever's post after day 3 seems to hint that at least some anti-town forces have died:
On February 16 2011 22:33 pevergreen wrote:
ilovejonn has been modkilled for breaking the rules.

I was going to do a role update and reveal the number of remaining anti-town players etc, but after the breaking of rules, no.

So I find this the most likely possibility. This would also imply that thefluffyone93 was definitively mafia, and probably darmousseh (given his victory conditions appear to be red text).
The 3rd party can kill more and more people as time goes on, but can only kill every other night. So 1 on night 2 and 2 on night 4. This would mean that there's only 1 mafia on the list above, or 2 and 1 of those killed was the GF. Only not screwed if 2 killed, but in this case it'd be imperative to kill the SK else 3 kills on night 6 would obliterate the rest of the town. This seems a bit OP, so I'm leaning against it.

We're screwed possibilities (i.e. ignore these, but for completeness some other ones I thought up):

The 3rd party is only allowed to hit once every other night. This would imply either:
- ~~2 mafia died in between nights 3 and 4~~ (only thefluffyone93 died, so no).
- There are 3 mafia, 1 SK and 2 town. Either way we lose as far as I can tell, so I'm not giving this one too much credence in the spirit of optimism.
The 3rd party is allowed to hit once starting Night 2 but is immune to night hits (popular in TL setups, idk about Totalwar, can a totalwar vet clarify?). Mafia attempted to kill SK on night 3 but were unable to do so. Again this would imply 3 mafia, 1 SK, 2 town. And again, this would mean it's SK vs Mafia and thus we're screwed, so I'm not putting too much thought into this.

So, why do I bring up the above in my last post? What good does it do? Well consider the following:

One of the roles in the game is to check a player's name. However, ask yourself the following:
- If the name is completely independent of alignment, what good does it do to know someone's name (and not even their role's powers)?
- Under what circumstances would a player ever lie about their name? Names are not revealed in the night text, and the only name that's ever been tied to a kill was Reenk Roink.
Thus the only way I see it, names must somehow be related to alignment.
kitaman found the following on the total war forums. Combined with the analysis in my last post, then
Most often Mafia
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
23 Yaseikhaan (Chaoser)
19 Sasaki Kojiro (thefluffyone93)
16 atheotes (darmousseh)
Finally, we're fairly confident that the remaining mafia player is the grandfather. Chaoser's at the top of the list. Extremely unlikely coincidence?

As confident as I am that these are indeed the game mechanics (just ask the initial questions again if you have any doubts), then if Chaoser is indeed Grandfather, then he should have some tells. Let's see.

Chaoser is a mediocre player. Now I'm not one to throw stones in glass houses, but compared to other players such as Ace, Bumatlarge, etc. he's just not as strong. This would explain the killing of TL vets early on. Even if they can keep playing, it's not as much fun if they don't have anything truly invested. Just look at Ace. So eliminate the strong players and prey on the weak.
After being called out by me on Day 3, responds with OMGUS. However, it's at this point that he starts playing. Despite being halfway through the game, he had 10 posts prior to this point (not counting pre-game posts), none of which were substantial. Now? 42 and counting, and certainly more invested.
Only posts his role PM when he is called out by GMarshal.

You are Greatermakaiultrawarsupergigayaseitriplekhaan (Yaseikhaan)

You’ve had a lot of usernames. A tradition you started, you change the first half (before ‘khaan) of your username every thousand posts. People gave up and just started calling you khaan. Currently, you are one of the moderators of the Gameroom.

You are Town
Victory condition: You win when all anti-town forces have been eliminated.
And the coup de grace: He called out thefluffyone93's misstatement. If we've assumed thefluffyone93 is mafia, then how could he be mafia? Because it's perfect. On one hand, it gives him the best cover possible - he found a near definitive mafia which directly led to his lynch! And, on top of that, it gives the Mafia double kill power.

Seriously, think back. How pitiful was fluffy's defense? It felt obvious. It felt easy. There wasn't any analysis - it was just "wow what a stupid slip." Stupid slip, or ingenious plan?
He immediately pushes for lynching the 3rd party killer as soon as the day starts:
On February 20 2011 01:23 chaoser wrote:
So there's 6 of us, probably GF and SK since Jbright and believer both died to the same guy. If we lynch SK today, it's 5. GF kills 2 at night, it's down to 3, we have awesome chance of winning. We need to lynch SK today though. Or we can try to sniff out GF.

"sniffing out the GF" is a mere afterthought and is quickly discarded.

Conclusion: Chaoser (Greatermakaiultrawarsupergigayaseitriplekhaan i.e. Yaseikhaan) is the Mafia Grandfather.

And finally, as I don't want this to be at all tainted with the idea that I have ulterior motives, my role claim:

You are Reenk Roink

One of the most respected members, you are skilled in debating,mafia and anything else you say you are. After a host put you in an alliance with pevergreen during a game, you formed an unbeatable team of bromance which shakes the very foundations of the earth.

pevergreen is: (kitaman27)
You are Town
Victory condition: You win when all anti-town forces have been eliminated.
Personal vice: You hate pevergreen getting lynched. You don’t have that much time for mafia anymore, and so when pevergreen gets lynched, you don’t get mad, you get even. The following day phase, a player of your choice will by lynched, in addition to the normal lynch.

My odd comradery with kitaman27 even early game should prove this beyond a doubt, but in case you need further proof, you may recall this:

On February 14 2011 05:24 SiNiquity wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'd post a rolleyes smiley but even a thousand wouldn't cut it so:

http://i54.tinypic.com/28k6no3.gif

Reenk Roink: http://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?132167-Council-of-Villains-A-State-of-Corruption-Concluded&p=2053255245&highlight=rolleyes thousand smiley#post2053255245

peverreenk For, The, Win. Highfive Kita
Vote: Chaoser

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 01:50 GMT

#1006

That's it. That's the game. Every player is one from the total war forum. Each player's name is somehow tied to their role (mine being the peverreenk awesomeness). The top mafia players are mafia. So obvious.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 02:18 GMT

#1009

On February 20 2011 10:52 deconduo wrote:
Hey SiNiquity (and anyone else), if you trust me vote for insanious today. Its should be clear I'm pro-town now. Unfortunately I can't reveal anything I knew in private before my death, I can only push without giving evidence.

It doesn't matter. If we vote Insanious today and he's the SK as I suspect, then the GF will get 2 kills tonight and it will be 2 townies and the GF. Suppose I'm wrong (I'm not) and Chaoser is not GF - then chaoser is lynched, GF kills other person and mafia wins.

If we vote Chaoser today and he's the GF, then SK gets 1 kill tonight. 3 town vs 1 SK. Suppose Insanious is for whatever reason not the SK (again, I think he is the SK, but let's consider this). Mislynch, next day is 1 town vs 1 SK hence SK wins.

Therefore tonight and the next night is LyLo. It doesn't matter what order it's done in.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 02:24 GMT

#1011

Also, I chose Mr. Wiggles because I felt he was contributing "actively" only to stay alive, and even then his contributions weren't particularly noteworthy. Contrasted with someone like Insanious who had 5 posts, I felt Mr. Wiggles would survive longer without suspicion (and if Insanious were mafia then he'd be screwed). So I gambled.

Sorry Wiggles

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 02:32 GMT

#1015

On February 20 2011 11:24 chaoser wrote:
So let's get this straight, for me, only YOU think i'm GF. But for SK, me, the "GF" thinks insanious is SK, GMarshal cracked why's clues that point to him as a killer (SK), and now deconduo saying he's pretty sure that insanious is SK. Which do you think is the risk you want to take? Multiple concrete signs pointing to him as SK (you even think he's SK). Or some crazy plan that you think I thought up.

It's not a risk. Tonight and tomorrow is LyLo. Either we win with both lynches, or we lose the game. It's irrelevant in which order.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 02:35 GMT

#1018

On February 20 2011 11:30 Insanious wrote:
So when I turn out to be town, and chaoser, GMarshal, and deconduo finds out they killed the town...

I wonder what they will say (i bet they will blame me for looking scummy

)

Dude shut up, you have a dead man's cipher pointing directly at you.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 02:49 GMT

#1020

On February 20 2011 11:37 chaoser wrote:

Show nested quote +

How is it not a risk. You know he's SK. The only thing that makes you think I'm mafia is a crazy plan you thought up and my name on the top of some list. Yes it looks pretty shitty, but in that case, if the order doesn't matter, at least kill the SK first. There's concrete proof on him, you only have conjecture on me. That's like saying, hey guys! a DT checked him and he's SK, but whatever, lets kill this guy instead cause based on analysis that I don't know is right or not, I think he's mafia!

How hard is this to comprehend:

Today is LyLo.
Tomorrow is LyLo.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 03:05 GMT

#1024

This isn't even up for debate.

On February 18 2011 07:28 darmousseh wrote:

Show nested quote +

Wouldn't the part

Show nested quote +

be in red?

Scum slip post death. Given the 3rd party is still alive, mafia.

Night actions this game

(2) Day 1: zerroth lynched, LunarDestiny suicided.
(2) Night 1: Bumatlarge, Ace killed. Ace attempted to kidnap aidnai. Standard mafia KP
(2) Day 2: Kitaman is killed during the day. Misder is lynched.
(5) Day 2 mod-kills: me_viet, ELITECubWarman8, SouthRawrea, Johnhughthom, Project Psycho
(3) Night 2: Brownbear, Node killed. Why killed. SK starts killing
(2) Day 3: Mr. Wiggles killed by Reenk Roink. GGQ lynched.
(2) Day 3 mod-kills: darmousseh (roleclaimed in PMs), ilovejon (roleclaimed in PMs)
(2) Night 3: Coagulation killed. Aidnai killed. Mafia KP drops to 1.
(1) Day 4: thefluffyone93 lynched.
(3) Night 4: JBright, Believer killed. deconduo killed. Mafia KP jumps to 2.

So darmousseh and thefluffyone93 are mafia (fluffy because he was the only death in between Nights 3 and 4).

Most often Mafia
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
23 Yaseikhaan (Chaoser)
19 Sasaki Kojiro (thefluffyone93)
16 atheotes (darmousseh)

And finally (I can't believe I omitted this from my original analysis):

On January 22 2011 16:51 pevergreen wrote:

Show nested quote +

Its a theme game.

Its quite different to the normal TL style, but its the default system I've played for the last 4 years, it works well enough.

What's the theme to this game? Every character is related to their role. This, and only this explains the existence of GMarshal's ability to check player names. On top of the analysis done on you already, and yes, you're 100% grandfather. This isn't a guess or a shot in the dark. This is as damning, if not more so, than why's cipher on Insanious.

Either way, peverreenk wins again.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 03:08 GMT

#1028

On February 20 2011 12:04 chaoser wrote:
Ok, another question. If I'm GF, and he's SK, and we're going to be lynched in turn, why am I trying so goddamn hard to get him lynched first?

Because like any good mafiaso, you're going to fight until the very last breath. That's a dumb question.

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 03:14 GMT

#1033

On February 20 2011 12:09 chaoser wrote:
Whatever clearly you are retarded, I leave it to the rest of town. GG. When you lose the game I hope you're happy. I can't argue with you anymore cause you're dead set on the idea that you're a genius and right.

What's the theme to this game? Every character is related to their role.

What about that one name claim that said he is always mafia? Who was that?

I'm dumb

I forgot:

On February 17 2011 03:20 GMarshal wrote:
From: pevergreen [ 173 posts | Profile | Buddy | Report ]
Subject: Orgah mafia Role PM
Date: 2/11/11 09:45
You are Beskar

You post a fair bit, analyse well and are generally well liked. From Britain, you tend to dislike ‘Engrish’ and bastardisations of your language. You have an intense rivalry with ‘atheotes’ who often gets randomly selected as mafia. In fact, its almost a rule that ‘atheotes is always mafia’

You are [I]Town[I]
Victory condition: You win when all anti-town forces have been eliminated.

Reply

darmousseh (atheotes)

LOL

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 03:21 GMT

#1039

On February 20 2011 12:11 GMarshal wrote:

Show nested quote +

Atheotes, and he probably *was* mafia, or are you referring to something else?

Either way SiNiquity, please do me a favor and vote for the SK, we can look at the survivors after tonight and make up our minds

I was going to say ~ I'm not stopping you voting for the SK, but chaoser's mine, and it's not like it matters anyway.

However, I realize that chaoser could switch his vote at the last minute and make it a 2-2-2 contest (it appears Beefy is forced to vote gryffindor much like Misder was forced to vote fluffy), and it's not immediately clear how ties would be broken. So either I switch to Insanious or you all switch to chaoser. I'm a team player. A peverreenk team player.

unvote: Chaoser
vote: Insanious

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 03:22 GMT

#1040

On February 20 2011 12:16 chaoser wrote:

Show nested quote +

You'd think as the mafia head I'd remember that.

WIFOM

SiNiquity

United States734 Posts

February 20 2011 19:49 GMT

#1061

On February 21 2011 03:20 GMarshal wrote:

Show nested quote +

We KNOW he is mafia because in my PM it says clearly "In fact, its almost a rule that ‘atheotes is always mafia’" We have to assume that our PMs aren't lying to us so, obviously darmousseh is mafia, he has the same DT power I have because our roles are parallel, his is probably about the intense rivalry he has with Beskar, remember knowing names is an ability that is as useful to the mafia as it is to us

Either way assuming I survive the night, who should I namecheck?

Gryffindor or Beefy. You can check me if you want but it'll be a waste ~ I've already claimed Reenk Roink, and it's clear the character exists. I also have breadcrumbed back to Reenk Roink's character early in the game before his name was revealed, both directly (post from totalwar forum) and indirectly (bizarre comradery with kitaman).