Also make an exception. I can play both!
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RebirthOfLeGenD
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Also make an exception. I can play both! | ||
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On December 23 2010 13:11 Coagulation wrote: THIS IS MADNESS NO, THIS IS FLAMEWHEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL | ||
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On December 25 2010 04:20 bumatlarge wrote: /in Though I cant flaunt my #1 liquibet any more stupid roro Edit: and jaedong/sea/modesty failures win it and give me free Tshirt. | ||
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On December 26 2010 11:07 LunarDestiny wrote: GOGOGO. Need one more !! | ||
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On December 27 2010 18:34 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Meh I'll just start now, I have some time. We need to very carefully consider the framer role. It is often advised to detectives, by mafia, that a big town target should be checked to get "information". DT's should check the targets they think are most likely scum based on post behavior and that's pretty much all there is to it until later in the game when a lot of information actually can be gleaned from an alignment check. Framer Strategy: mafia railroads/advises DT to check a big town target with a lot of attention (for an example of this level of attention look at me in insane mafia) and then simply frame them. Pandain was effectively framed on day 1 of haunted and a DT checked him, because Pandain was an active poster but there was nothing scummy about any of his posts. It was a bad check. So beware of attempts to railroad you into checking certain targets especially if it happens in PM. I imagine myself, Pandain, LSB, and RoL will all be strong frame targets that is if they aren't going to be hit since they are likely to be checked. I'm not saying don't check veteran players, I'm saying check people you think are scum. Also DT's shouldn't claim if they find a red and definitely not in PM either. Build a case on that person. Read through their posts and seriously consider them. Read them as though they are mafia, what are they doing to hurt/mislead the town and does it make sense? They might be a miller (there are probably 2, that is the normal count) and they might also have been framed. When you checked someone and now they are mafia or are nearly certain you build a good case to get them lynched, you don't claim straight away because it's still possible the mafia won't hit you and if they do it become immediately apparent why you pushed so strong for a specific lynch which means the mafia have to do a lot of damage control especially if they tried to spread distrust/attack that DT. The timing of his ban should have nothing to do with what role he may or may not be. Or rather what role I may or may not be. I'm gonna say this about vig's: don't shoot until night 3 or night 4. As the game progresses it gets easier and easier to find mafia and that's when efficient town KP use becomes super important. Don't blow your hit early, you'll more than likely miss. Your goal is to not get killed. As far as this Pandain bandwagon Idon't see why that is. This isn't a mafia thing it's just stupid but he did roleclaim village idiot to me in PM before the game started, not sure what that means. Probably nothing because he's just bad. If he's scum I'll catch him pretty quickly so I'm not worried about him at all. LunarDestiny's posts so far come off as the most scummy but that's just barely, no good target has presented itself yet to me for the lynch so I'll vote for myself. My work schedule is unpredictable and I don't want to get modkilled for it. As an addendum to the first part of this post. I don't think DrH hit it just right. Don't waste your time checking "big name" players. Since a GF is chosen you will get back a blue/green role on them pretty much no matter what. The way I play a detective role can be seen slightly in HP mafia. There were people I thought very likely to be scum, but there were two players I couldn't decide on, but was leaning towards mafia or jackass. OpZ and Orgolove. Night 1 I decided to Orgolove, but either check would of been adequate for my criteria. Usually a host RNG's the player list and makes mild adjustments for balance. The odds of a more recognized/good player getting into the mafia is increased and therefore they are likely to be the godfather. The only game where I would say the "veteran" player IMO wasn't GF was in Salem. They chose SouthRawrea over Radfield, but that could of been because of PM's and knowing where the check was going, or because radfield knew he was going to be inactive. So when you are a DT check someone who is playing aggressively/scummy and someone who you can't quite decide on their alignment. With a framer the odds are increased that you will get a bad check on a "veteran" player because they will either be godfather or framed. On that note though, the only real check we can use is a medic. If a medic protects someone and the day post is mafia KP-1 they can be almost 100% sure they protected someone good, especially if they are a "veteran" player. Anyway, I don't like making it seem like the DT role is so important which this seems like, I in fact view DT as a handicap that clouds a persons judgment. I would rather trust my behavioral analysis over DT checks any day of the week. I urge the utmost caution in using DT checks in this game, because I don't feel like having SouthRawrea 2.0 after I die and everyone becomes too stupid to realize who the leak was. Anyway, I got work in a little bit I will probably be back around 10ish. | ||
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On December 28 2010 01:15 LSB wrote: Firstly, pointing out that someone isn’t on topic isn’t analysis. It’s just plain distracting. Why don’t you include my two posts at the start of the game? Their spam too! Please read Pokemafia. Thanks! Help me then. What analysis could I do at that point? Read the thread please Do you seriously think that I need to pretend to be active? Why don't you analyze my defense of Pandain, what does it say? Nice ‘analysis’ yourself btw. | ||
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With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead. Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1. Seraph On December 27 2010 10:28 seRapH wrote: Hey guys this is an obvious slip-up, we should lynch TheMango. Town wouldn't want to "get rid" of people Also DrH because there's always a high chance of him being mafia. A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia. On December 27 2010 10:54 seRapH wrote: I highly doubt there's any more than 1 framer in this game, but we should keep rolecheck candidates to 4 or 5 to minimize framer/miller influence. One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait. On December 27 2010 13:31 seRapH wrote: Since we're discussing lynching inactives (which at this point I mostly agree with unless something drastically better pops up) what are we using to define "inactive"? <5 posts? No meaningful posts? And how will we pick the inactive? Or should we all pick our own inactive to lynch? At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill. In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information. On December 27 2010 13:36 seRapH wrote: Inactives with zero posts or votes will be modkilled/replaced, so I guess what I meant was lurkers. How will we determine who are lurkers and how will we pick which to be irradiated? On December 27 2010 13:40 seRapH wrote: Except they could be replaced, not necessarily modkilled. On December 27 2010 14:04 seRapH wrote: Bah DrH is our only replacement right? I kinda wish there were a few more but whatev =\ We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all. On December 27 2010 14:22 seRapH wrote: I don't want luck to have any more to do with this than it has to. Early vig hits is much too risky, and has just as much if not more chance of hitting blue than it does of hitting red. Sure reducing KP is important, but keeping our number of blues is even moreso. On December 27 2010 14:53 seRapH wrote: Right, so this isn't something that's exactly urgent, is it? Day 1 lynching, however, is. Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it. And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them. On December 27 2010 15:00 seRapH wrote: Well given that it's day 1 we're mostly waiting for people to check in. So people should be pitching in about their stances on the following issues: Day 1 lynch- Inactives or suspects, and then who? Role of PMs in this game Any questions you guys may have should also be asked, an informed town is a good town ^_^ Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness. On December 28 2010 07:49 seRapH wrote: It's pretty obvious that the Pandain wagon makes zero sense, so if you were mafia trying to establish credibility letting that go through would be stupid. Annul my vote is going on you now because after reading through this thread I also think your analysis has been forced. Also I'm keeping an eye on meapak. This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced On December 28 2010 08:55 seRapH wrote: A forced argument is when you try to conjure up something out of nothing. Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory. The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason. On December 28 2010 11:54 seRapH wrote: I like that you're going to help us with this inactive thing, but we shouldn't be lynching someone who's about to get modkilled for not showing up. On December 28 2010 17:17 seRapH wrote: Just clearing this up, but you do mean Insane Mafia, not Haunted, right? Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia. The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched. With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets. | ||
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On December 29 2010 05:20 Insanious wrote: Wow... we get nothing as town from lynching LSB at all 0. No info: Anti LSB: - Annul Pro LSB: - Me Annul = town, easy to see Me = town, because I know I'm town :/, hopefully my posts speak for me. LSB turns up green: - We have no suspects to look at LSB turns red: - We look at me... awesome? want to know how I know LSB isn't red... No one is trying to divert the lynch, if LSB was red, the mafia would be trying to throw up another name to be lynched instead of LSB. Is that happening? NOOOOO Mafia are throwing LSB under the bus because... LSB isn't mafia. People, if he was mafia we would be having a lot more discussion rather then Annul: "LSB is mafia" LSB: "No I'm not" Everyone else: "I don't know who is mafia, lets bandwagon LSB" This is just bad town play, and for one, I am disappointed... We are voting for: 1) An active player 2) A player that might be blue 3) A player that no one is really defending 4) A player that if he turns red, there are no other posters to look at if he flips LSB is a terrible lynch... False logic. There is a VERY good reason that LSB is not getting defended if he is mafia. Look at ExMiMa. I accused Aidnai HARD day 1 and was pushing him relentlessly waiting for other mafia to show themselves by trying to defend him. KJ/Annul kept their cool until I got replaced then slowly diverted the lynch. It is WAY too risky to try to launch a defensive or diversion campaign of a mafia on day 1, especially if you fail. | ||
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24 hours of conversation can change an opinion. The reason I felt their tiff was forced was because I thought LSB would be too experienced to respond in such an aggressive manner. I may have been wrong. | ||
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On December 29 2010 05:59 Node wrote: I don't buy that LSB is being bussed. At this point in the game, with the votes in as many places as they are, it would be just as easy for annul or OpZ to be in the lead if that was what mafia wanted. That said, I think RoL brings up a good case against Seraph, but I'd rather see annul / LSB resolved before we focus our attention elsewhere. As I explained a post above, I don't believe its feasible for the mafia to try to protect one of their own from such a volatile situation. It can only reveal themselves if they do it directly and it fails. Its why anyone focusing on lynching inactives or avoiding the conflict between annul/LSB should be heavily scrutinized. | ||
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Anyway, I am dead serious. I will post the analysis tonight. But I am damn fucking sure. | ||
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To follow that up, you also ignored my analysis on Seraph which would of given you a GOOD switch candidate. So let me get this strait, you don't want LSB/Annul to die and are so SURE they are innocent so you want to change vote to someone completely random as opposed to another analysis that was posted? It doesn't make sense unless you want to appear like you were looking out for the town but don't want to implicate the other mafia who heavy suspicion was thrown onto. That is the gist of my argument. I have a very crude way to try to delegate hatter bombs. I would assume we have 2 Hatters, or 1 hatter 1 vigi. Very low chance of a 2-1 in either set up. If you are a hatter and you are on the FIRST half of the player list please place a bomb on Seraph. If you are a hatter and you are on the SECOND half of the player list please place a bomb on Insanious. Ideally for this method of sorting to work I need to find a third candidate I deem worthy to bomb and split the list in thirds which severely reduces the risk of overlapping bombs. | ||
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On December 29 2010 13:02 seRapH wrote: ?? And RoL explain why Insanious is scummy? He actually implicated both of you! Lets hope you guys don't accidentally hit a mad hatter tonight! | ||
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Same with Seraph. | ||
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On December 29 2010 13:18 Insanious wrote: I was NOT sure LSB was a town, and I posted that at least 4 times. What I was SURE of, was that lynching LSB now was a bad idea. LSB is red, and we have a sure lynch on day 3 LSB is blue, and town is better off. Lynching LSB now was the worst person to lynch... People didn't listen. Litterally LSB was a bad lynch now, and an amazing lynch on day 3 if he couldn't prove himself. Isn't basing lynching on previous actions > lynching on poor analysis. Brocket was a very active and aggressive player when he was town. Now he wasn't even posted like anything. He is acting super different, to me this means he is a different role. Now also in Pokemafia, the mafia totally destroyed the town by being inactive. Posting like once and voting every day. This is how the mafia won in the game, and that is how I see Brocket playing this game so far. I didn't want an active, experienced player to die this early... too bad that didn't work out. In Pokemafia we(town) killed ourselves by voting for active experienced players. Town lost that game because we had no one playing at the end. We need active experienced players playing the game. Seraph hasn't posted that scummily yet, maybe he will show up more like scum later. But he sure is posting and that is better then the 15 players that are letting the mafia hide within them. Annul is green, look at the way he posted. How he went after LSB. This is just like a lot of other greens, they get vocal and voracious so that people listen to them and they can draw fire from the mafia. A mafia and a blue would be too scared to speak that much for fear of being hit in the night. He is a green. LSB was 50/50 red or blue. I gave him the benefit of the doubt, because to me he was blue until night 2 where he was going to prove he was blue. If he didn't prove it, he was red, and no harm done. This means LSB was 100% either blue or red, with a 100% chance of dying if he was red on day 3. No reason to look at him anymore, move on. This means we were looking at 2 terrible candidates and needed to look else where, how hard is that to see... I decided to read your post actually. Its full of shit. You never dismissed points when it came to why we should lynch LSB, you mumbled some shit about statistically a 1/5 shot which is kind of funny since you shouldn't actually know if their are 6 mafia or not. Logically I would say 6 is a LIKELY number but its not a definite number. On top of that you didn't even dismiss my Seraph analysis. You just keep reiterating the same old shit that doesn't make sense. Let me read pokemafia tonight after my friend leaves and I will tell you why the town lost and I guarantee you it isn't because you killed the "active" people. | ||
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On December 29 2010 13:43 Jackal58 wrote: Coagulation has been no fucking help at all. You wanna know why we have nearly identical diction? I'll tell ya why. But sexual favors are required to unlock the secret. I'm drunk. I'm going to bed. post of the game. | ||
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hmmm.... I am going to go to sleep and rebuff everything tomorrow I don't have work so I have all day to waste away reading, and playing mafia. | ||
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On December 29 2010 21:14 GeorgeClooney wrote: I'm properly going to vote Paindrain when day begins, cause he won't make up his mind. I thought lynching ESB was a retarded move, he would have roleclaimed after, and for god sakes he was a Vet. He could of established a town circle, nor was he scummy after the other guy (forgot his name) decided to bit his ass and not let go. Lets hope its not another blue lol. By the way, I want to start a town circle. Ofcourse i'm not going to lead this, but I ain't mafia, and I want to win a game lol. Straight forward. Anyone else for a town circle? Is this post a mother fucking joke? Pandrain [b]E[b]SB Desire to just create a town circle? MAFIATROLL? | ||
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On December 30 2010 01:38 why wrote: Honestly, this post comes off as very scummy to me. Seraph doesn't show up all day after he is FoSed by RoL and then comes in 30 minutes after the lynch to berate everyone on how they messed up. It feels like he is trying to take credit for being against the LSB lynch when he actually he just wasn't a part of it either way. Also, he doesn't say who he would have voted for (evidently he wouldn't have supported a Brocket lynch given that the inactive thing was just a talking point). I am hardly going to have to waste my time arguing for his lynch tomorrow. Its why I haven't put much effort into rebuffing Seraph/Insanious. I am not going to cover the thread in spam like LSB/Annul did. Its not how I roll~ | ||
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The way I will organize this to avoid overlapping as much as possible is follows. If you are on the player list between 1-10 please place your bomb on Seraph, if you are 11-20 please place your bomb on Insanious, and if you are on the player list for 21-30 please place your bomb on Annul. This is very important in case one of you gets hit tonight. I have very strong suspicions that these players are mafia. Annul's case upon reflection picked up steam faster than it should of even with LSB's odd defense and aggression. It could of just been a mafia pushing forward a bandwagon to get rid of a decent player in LSB, but we agreed it felt a little off even so. So once again. When madhatters read this place your bombs accordingly. If you are in the player list between any of the following numbers place your bomb to the corresponding players. 1-10 place on Seraph 11-20 place on Insanious 21-30 place on Annul | ||
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On December 30 2010 06:44 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Alright I have a new idea for the hatters. I have decided on a third person upon talking with someone and I believe he is right. The three people we should put bombs on tonight should be Seraph, Insanious, and Annul. The way I will organize this to avoid overlapping as much as possible is follows. If you are on the player list between 1-10 please place your bomb on Seraph, if you are 11-20 please place your bomb on Insanious, and if you are on the player list for 21-30 please place your bomb on Annul. This is very important in case one of you gets hit tonight. I have very strong suspicions that these players are mafia. Annul's case upon reflection picked up steam faster than it should of even with LSB's odd defense and aggression. It could of just been a mafia pushing forward a bandwagon to get rid of a decent player in LSB, but we agreed it felt a little off even so. So once again. When madhatters read this place your bombs accordingly. If you are in the player list between any of the following numbers place your bomb to the corresponding players. 1-10 place on Seraph 11-20 place on Insanious 21-30 place on Annul To make sure this gets read. + Show Spoiler + Edit was fixing tags, wasn't going to triple post -_- | ||
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Seraph play is characterized by indecision and feigned activity. On top of that all he ever really talked about was pointless shit and kept trying to push stupid shit like lynching inactives. I have an analysis on him on Page 25 if you would like to read it. Insanious during the hours before the lynch of LSB tried bandwagoning the shit out of brockit claiming he "knew" LSB was blue and how stupid we were being. The analysis on him although much shorter is a few pages back on 32 iirc. No one should EVER be so sure that someone is blue. On top of just being sure he NEVER gave a good reason to want to switch which leads me to believe his intention was never to actually switch the vote, but to make it APPEAR that he wanted to switch the vote away from someone who was blue. On top of that, even though he seriously didn't want to lynch LSB he ignored my Seraph analysis which if he used that might of switched the lynch away from LSB. I believe the reason he didn't use the Seraph analysis was because Seraph is his mafia buddy AND he had no true intention to divert the lynch. You can see similar play being used by me and Insane Mafia in regards to dealing with pandain. I actively pushed for pandains lynch but never hard enough to actually change anything. He just did it a lot more shitty. When it comes to Annul, I was really trying to find another candidate who I could put up as a MH bomb because when I divide the player list by 3 instead of 2 it GREATLY reduces the chance of overlapping bombs. On top of that the way Annul got support is a little fishy, I need to do more analysis on it but it is still extremely strange. The bandwagon IMO should never have been so lopsided in favor of LSB even though I think LSB was suspicious, it is really hard to gather a following on a day 1 lynch UNLESS you are mafia. With that justification and an indepth analysis of Annul being very time consuming at the moment I would prefer to put a bomb on him while doing a further analysis later. I hope that meets your approval for my justification. | ||
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To further elaborate on Annul, the aggressive play Day 1 isn't entirely common, but I believe annul may be trying to establish a meta with it, I have talked with him on AIM and the more I think about it the more it makes sense. On top of that any check on Annul is extremely unreliable because of the framer role. If Annul REALLY isn't red he would most likely get framed tonight. If is red he can claim that he was most likely framed and can use WIFOM arguments to try to save himself which he most likely has the skill to pull off, especially with mafia support. The thing about Annul's LSB analysis is it can be applied to MOST players on Day 1, but that is not what made me suspicious of LSB. It was LSB's aggressive response that made me think he was most likely red, and on top of that claiming blue AND that he could prove his role by Night 2 was impossible based on the roles, and seemed like LSB was trying to weasel himself into living another day. Now that I know LSB's plan it seemed like a dumb plan the town would of never followed through with. He figured he would get hit tonight, and if he didn't he would have the Vigi hit him night 2 to confirm his alignment. The problem with that is the mafia can easily fake him actually being "hit" tonight by simply double stacking one person and hitting another person. So LSB's plan was stupid, his defense was weak, and he got bandwagoned hard and his lynch seemed fine to be, but not as fine as most people made it out to be. | ||
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On December 30 2010 12:14 flamewheel wrote: I just want to say that I wrote this. Credit hog! Nice lord of the rings reference btw. | ||
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On December 30 2010 12:54 ~OpZ~ wrote: ....Why you want to lynch vote now? Hatters [b]probably[/b placed bombs on them. Removing bombs is a good thing for scum. I want this to be discussed, not just followed. I really doubt we have 3 hatters, and I don't care about losing a hatter bomb if it means getting a mafia now. | ||
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On December 30 2010 14:54 Insanious wrote: Meapak_Ziphh you, just like RoL make a huge mistake. I was not 100% sure LSB was blue. I was 100% sure he was either blue or red... Either he proves he's blue. He lives. He doesn't, he dies. This could of happened on night 3, wouldn't of hurt the town at all. It could of only helped by saving a blue for more nights, or saved a blue for the rest of the game. Litterally no down side for the town... so we should of waited. I would of killed him instantly on day 3 if I wasn't 100% sure he was blue. Waiting helped the town, killing him gave us nothing. This is what I was saying... there was no point where I KNEW he was blue. And there was no point that I said I was 100% sure he was blue until after he died... Read my posts, and don't put words in my mouth. Just to correct his right now. This is false logic. It gave us information. a LOT of information. Redirecting a lynch last second gives us absolutely nothing except for knowing who a bunch of impulsive townies and a couple of mafia are. Like I said, look at the (day3?) lynch in Salem where they switched to Darth, Darth never defended himself or anything just the entire town switched the vote and got nothing for it. Watching that happen was terrible, considering they were about to actually lynch a mafia. As another note, holding off a lynch is rarely a good idea. Most of the time pushing off a lynch leads to the town completely forgetting or constantly pushing off that lynch. Look at pandain in Insane mafia. He was so obviously scum and they ALMOST killed him a few times constantly pushing it off. Pandain ended up being the only player alive at the end, winning the game for the mafia. Deal with shit now, especially when there is no 100% way to confirm someone that isn't completely ass backwards retarded. The first half of my post on Seraph where I outline the importance of blue roles was a farce. I do not believe for a second we need blue roles to win this game. My creed is that behavioral analysis is the be all and end all of mafia, you either analyze and win or you don't and you lose. Blue roles can help, but at the end of the day who gives a shit about a DT check when there is a framer/miller/godfather in the game. I just wanted to try to see what the response was to that post, while outlining an analysis on a suspicious player. Unfortunately I was at work shortly after I got around to posting that so I wasn't able to see the results until I got home after 10PM when the Day was over, but I still think it served its purpose which is why I attacked you and Seraph. | ||
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On December 31 2010 04:21 Pandain wrote: Alright sup ya'll. Tonight was good, and bad. It was good because we didn't lose any blues and I didn't die, but it was bad because we lost alot of really good people. But right now what we have to be doing is getting all these inactives to talk. Until these people post a good post, or start to really help, FoS on them. Opz George CLooney Shockkey Ryu/DArthien\ Brockett(another) Orgolove Right now I'm going to be voting Orgolove, but these people we should especially keep an eye on Why Orgolove? HE claims he's been busy during the holidays but not posting, but really, he's way TOO quiet. I mean, he's always super spammy/agressive, and even the holidays he wouldn't have been this busy. Let's see his posts: States the obvious, already said. Accuses people who try to get people to talk. Note that Orgo says we should be focusing on trying to find red's, but orgolove hasn't done ANYTHING. This is all he says. A short while after LSB died. Now, what does this post do? First of all orgolove barely did anything, and he's immediately apologizing for getting it wrong. This is a very obvious scum tell if I'm correct, and he still hasn't really contributed. He has obviously had time to read the thread, at different points during the day. There is no reason why he should not be contributing more unless he was red. I agree with your analysis of Orgolove, especially about the last part being a major scum tell. | ||
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On December 31 2010 12:58 Jackal58 wrote: As long as you're having fun My brain is about to start hemorrhaging uncontrollably. | ||
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On January 01 2011 09:32 orgolove wrote: O rly? vs Spam spam spam spam All you've done this game is a) lead the bandwagon against LSB, directly causing the death of a veteran, and then diverting the town's attention to getting perceived "inactives" instead of actual scumhunting - a classic red tactic. Time and again I point this out - scum hunting will do you far more good than looking at activity frequency patterns. After all, in games like these reds will have more invested in the game, and thus will be more likely to be active through a busy holiday season. lol this is some of the most misleading shit I have ever read. Pandain wasn't actively pushing the lynch. Pandain posted a couple of analysis's and posts have had substance. You however have posted dumb shit, like the lovely comment about an unpassworded IRC channel being a place where mafia can *GASP* read what we are saying, and how that is somehow not town orientated. Its not like pandain said this is where a town circle is gathering everyone please come in. He wanted a place to have quick conversations like through PMs but just faster. | ||
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Part I: What Annul has done. This is Annul's analysis of LSB. + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote: what is the point of this post? acting as if he is mafia to create the impression he is not mafia? WIFOM surely, but think about it what is the point of this? instant attempt to form a wagon on someone who hasnt even posted yet and the game had just started? two posts to seem active and he answers his own question a minute later. point of this? "should we lynch an inactive?" <-- probably knows mafia is most likely to at least pay attention to the thread enough to evade being labeled inactive. probably knows even if there are mafia inactives, he can choose any other town inactive and maintain the aura of "hey im helping out town" the rest of this is informative sure, but common sense? but the line "We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one." worries me. much better to hit an active scummy person and LSB should know this. "DO NOT CLAIM" is good advice, and i would like to say obvious, but given current history and shit it isnt =\ 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. common sense information fair question! ? more "hit inactives" crap - this is bad. also maybe a blue fish? wants to write a day post. uh huh. keep this in mind with the "try to appear active but not" lens. HEY something of content, cool. sort of defense of pandain and blatant defense of mr. wiggles. sadly the rationale of "inactives instead!" is scummy. dunno how to analyze this -- information that isnt common sense (or meant to filibuster) is fine, and even i didnt know this one. id say this gets a pass yes, lets lynch people with zero meaningful posts. LSB, you up? or yes lets lynch a modkill target because those are almost certainly going to be town and we want to lynch towns, yes. you too. good idea, i like this, but why sign up and then insta modkill on purpose? if youre replaced its not like you can consider any potential wins by the mafia as wins for you -- you are considered not to have even played the game. seems like something nobody should ever do on purpose and if they do, metagaming at its finest. buuuut then we haaaave..... "DONT WORRY ABOUT BEING INACTIVE LOL" after his entire campaign day 1 was "kill the inactives" -- whaaaat? what is this inconsistency? yes coagulation got a 14 day ban on purpose to "help" his mafia team day 1, this makes perfect sense. ***************** in conclusion, LSB has been making pure nonposts and/or pure informative posts without analysis, with the two exceptions being his insistence on the "kill inactives" theme and his defenses of pandain and mr. wiggles. yet he has like 30 posts up while saying almost absolutely nothing. my vote is on LSB now. I would like to say firstly that I agree with LD. Annul's analysis wasn't really what got LSB killed. Annul's analysis drew attention to LSB which LSB then proceeded to kill himself with by doing weird shit. On top of that the "saying a lot while barely saying anything" Day 1 is never a good tell. It is an okay tell, but it can be applied to almost ANYONE who contributed more than one post. Annul buts a huge focus on this for the majority of his analysis. LSB just not contributing, LSB spamming. If you read closely Annul taking a few posts completely out of context. On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote: "DONT WORRY ABOUT BEING INACTIVE LOL" after his entire campaign day 1 was "kill the inactives" -- whaaaat? what is this inconsistency? LSB is giving advice to new players, that as long as they read and actively try to play the game that they Don't need to worry about being inactive meaning that if they do the aforementioned they won't be inactive because they will be talking. He takes that in the completely wrong way. On December 28 2010 01:00 annul wrote: 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. What Annul is calling Sketchy with this post is not really suspicious at all. If a medic protects someone and a mad hatter has not died that night, that person is almost certainly town. The odds of a medic protect and a vigi overlapping is extremely low, and impossible before night 2. Meaning virtually all protects before night 2 are guaranteed innocent. But more importantly READ what LSB wrote and READ what Annul wrote. Annul's point he is calling scum is him reading something out of context again. One, if a medic saves you, you CAN role claim to them, and you can claim in thread that you were saved. The mafia CANNOT fake a medic save considering its confirmed through a moderator PM. And LSB isn't saying the medic should claim in the thread, he is saying the protected person should CLAIM they were protected in the thread which is what they NEED to do. It gives information to the town, on top of that if I am a medic and I claim to someone I protect, as an insurance policy I make them claim publicly that I protected and messaged them. This means that If I die, they know who to scrutinize more. On top of that Annul suggests blind claiming to some town circle, as if all members of a town circle are confirmed and known. If that were true town circles wouldn't exist because the mafia would eliminate them every night phase. Then what really gets me is he attacks point 4, which is obviously a joke. LSB says "The town thinks of some super awesome plan." as another justification for claiming, which seems to me like an obvious joke. On December 28 2010 05:49 annul wrote: you mean like you? i think ~24/30 of this game will agree that i have contributed much more analysis to this game than you have. the 6 who wont are you and your five mafia teammates. if there are seven mafia or eight mafia then it will be 23/30 and 22/30 who will agree with this. =\ This is kind of intuition I guess you could call it. The only reason someone would feel the need to post this last part is because hes trying to avoid what seems like a mafia slip that being knowing the exact number of mafia members. We are also going to see that annul keeps saying how HE contributes and LSB does NOT contribute. On December 28 2010 07:47 annul wrote: 1. "no u" defense again. this is precisely what i called LSB out on in the first place. we wouldnt even have these pages of debate if not for FOSing LSB. couldve just sat back and let pandain fall, very easy right? 2. see: 3. "forced" how? i couldve sat back and let pandain hang, right? why am i calling you out specificallly if i didnt think you were scum? the only way is if pandain and i are both mafia and i am trying to save him, and while i am not clear on pandain, i do know his wagon makes no sense. i realize saying this will mean i hang if he turns red but =\ you are scummier than he is right now. This is a great example of what you will see like 30 times if you go through Annul's post history. Him saying LSB is using a "no u" defense, which isn't at all what LSB is doing but is a great way to dismiss LSB's credibility. LSB wasn't arguing his case amazingly and he said a bunch of things I definitely don't agree with strategywise, but a "No u" defense was not something I ever really saw him doing. I am going to leave the analysis of Annul's play here. I am not going to do an EVERY SINGLE FUCKING POST analysis of him. Its a waste of time and is redundant, especially in Annul's case. He repeats the same stuff over and over again, while constantly discrediting LSB. Part II: What the mafia did and failed to do. This part could be argued to be theoretical. I have played MANY games as mafia and I can safely say that most mafia think very similarly and rarely attempt to delve into deep wifom, and attempting to mind fuck people. That being said, the way LSB's lynch snowballed Day 1 is interesting. A day one lynch is something that is generally very hard for town to get behind, let alone so fast and so sure. The reason I didn't bring this up Day 1 is because LSB had me convinced he was mafia, and I figured most of the town saw the same thing and the mafia didn't want to risk outing themselves to save LSB day 1. I can now say I was wrong about that. We fucked up. So now I have to accept that his lynch didn't pick up steam entirely because of how he acted, but also because the mafia decided that he was a good person to kill. At this point you can say "well Annul fucked up" and tunneled hard on someone who turns out was town. Which could be true, and I'd even give some credit to that statement except for one huge mistake by the mafia. No one EVER pressured Annul Day 2 for his "fuck up". From a mafia standpoint 2 townies going head to head is fucking awesome. Kill one, then kill the other with a lynch since one MUST be mafia, right? Logically after the first guy dies, a mafia can reasonably attack his accuser and get him lynched because of how HARD Annul pushed it thus setting back the town 2 lynches on townies. The mafia could of EASILY attacked and probably killed Annul Day 2 because of his fuck up, but instead Annul goes very quiet, and most people simply pretend it didn't happen. But why would the mafia not attack Annul if its such an easy innocent for them to reasonably attack without garnering too much suspicion? The answer is simple, they aren't thinking like that. Why would they attack one of their own if the attack is entirely unnecessary? If no one else is pushing for Annul to die, then why would they bus one of their own who has NO heat on him going into the night phase, and even the majority of Day 2. Pretty much the entire town attitude was "Well, LSB looked scummy as shit. We can't fault Annul." So the mafia didn't feel the need to throw him under a bus. The failure on the mafia's part to attack Annul makes me firmly believe that Annul HAS to be mafia. The only reason the mafia wouldn't jump on the opportunity to kill him is because he is one of them. Who even after his really aggressive play that killed a blue, the town still didn't look ready to punish him for it, so why would the mafia help the town by doing that? Part III: Enter: Annul If you read Annul's posting he often talks about how whether he is townie or red he will jump on "scummy" play and attack someone like a pitbull for what he thinks is the right thing. To me this looks like Annul is trying to build a meta for himself, and tell us that his play is NOT suspicious because its how he ALWAYS plays. Annul can be seen enforcing this idea in quite a few his posts. But where the idea is cemented was when I talked to him on AIM. When I was talking with Annul on AIM I mentioned how LSB looked scummy to me because of how he was responding to Annul's attack, and that if it was me I would of completely ignored the analysis whether I was town or mafia unless it became an issue and gained some steam as a legitimate argument. The reason being I would rather not get into a public fight with someone, especially since attacking back will generally make you look guilty, and generally only a guilty man needs to respond to such a petty attack. When I told him this Annul told me how he thought that was a good meta to build up, and then started talking to be about his Pitbullish play style that he tries to create and how he will attack anyone who "looks" suspicious whether he is mafia or town. The thing about talking about that so much is, if you are right there is no need to mention it at all. We will see that your scumdar is dead on and you nailed a red. Unless you wanted to preempt excuses and reasoning for why you played so aggressive. On top of that, if you see someone play like that when they are blue/green they aren't afraid to die because it doesn't matter. As long as whatever the townie does benefits the town before his death then he did a good job. Generally a townie will take the mindset of "If I am wrong, well, we will cross the bridge when we get there" while a mafia will try to preempt his defense because he already knows the result. While I agree developing a meta is very important to being a good mafia player, as long as it can remain consistent regardless of your alignment. Look at mine for example. I will never respond to an attack unless I need to. It is VERY simple to pull off regardless of my alignment, and doesn't yield any expectations of my play. Occasionally I will go insane and assault someone like Aidnai in ExMiMa, LSB in HP, or Annul in this game, but its not generally expected of me. The problem with what Annul is trying to set up is people expect results from you, even if you fuck up at first eventually we expect you to do something right if you are being that aggressive. But a mafia can't keep seeing scum where there isn't. It is really hard to but out multiple fake analysis in a game because you simply can't forget who your team mates are, and that everyone else quite simply isn't scum. With that in mind a person trying to pull of his play style needs to play well as a townie (hitting reds consistently) then as a red fuck up within reason and kill a town, then at some point bus one of your teammates, which believe it or not, its hard to find a team mate who wants to die. So in conclusion, Annul is fighting extremely hard to establish and maintain a meta that is REALLY hard to pull off. The only person I have ever seen kind of pull it off is Ace, and he still gets bitch slapped for it sometimes. If that didn't convince you Annul is scum, I honestly don't know what will. As a last statement, I will say why I believe I did not get hit last night. I see it as two possibilities. All my analysis were absolute trash and I didn't get a single mafia, or one at most. Or what I believe to be the actual reason. When I was talking to Annul on AIM he was trying to fish me and got under the impression that I am a Veteran. When looking at that from a mafia stand point I am someone who was very likely to draw medic protection and even if I didn't, one hit wasn't going to kill me anyway. Meaning I was a bad choice for a hit. I personally believe it was the latter, and he told his mafioso that I was a likely Vet and not to target me. I don't think it would be hard to convince a team that I am a bad hit because even if I am not a vet I will most likely draw a medic, and if they stack me and both occur, then well fuck. Day 1 you lost 2 hits. Just simply isn't worth it. So there you have it. After two days of saying absolutely nothing you have an analysis approaching Annul's scum from 3 comprehensive angles. Please try to fight that, and please vote Annul. | ||
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I am going to assume we have at least two medics. I could very well be wrong. Here is how I will coordinate you. It will work the same exact way the previous hatter dispersion worked. If on the player list you are 1-10, protect me. If on the player list you are 11-20, protect Pandain. If on the player list you are 21-30 protect someone who is neither of the above at your discretion. This is designed to ward the mafia away from the above targets when they can't afford to waste their KP at this stage in the game. I couple of people I would recommend reading while deciding who to protect are Barundar and Orgolove. | ||
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The one thing I will say now is look at how Annul posted towards his death. The guy is pissed, especially over activity. On top of that he was the godfather which made no sense at all. Judging by his anger and him being godfather, I would say chances are most of his mafia comrades are lurkers, which the exception of maybe 1-2 posting a little more. One of the most glaring errors in your argument is this. If I am mafia, and annul was mafia. Then why am I not the godfather if I am so good? | ||
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As for the list of lurkers, here is what I have: 5. Brocket 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 12. Node 15. ShoCkeyy 19. Orgolove 23. GeorgeClooney 24. d3_crescentia 27. Soulfire 30. ~OpZ~ Thats 11 people. Now since the Godfather is dead, any returns that are BLUE, or any returns you have gotten on people that are blue are 100%. In fact, anyone who has been returned town is guaranteed innocent right now. | ||
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On January 03 2011 06:39 Barundar wrote: Actions speaks louder than words. People just need to revisit the last few pages to see you are mafia. If your team is lurking, how come you got them to change in time? I started writing to correct your post, but I had trouble finding where to end a quote, got lazy, and had to go talk to my neighbor about the FBI. If you want me to tell you about all your mess ups, just PM me or message me on irc. I remember one of your big points was how I don't play like I am blue, how I should be playing cautiously. Well, quiet people don't draw medic protection, and people who have obvious tells don't make good mafia players. | ||
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-__________- GGGL | ||
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On January 04 2011 06:04 ~OpZ~ wrote: i hit rol. any claims? lol. sorry just got off work. posting from phone. My disdain for you grows with every game we play together. | ||
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Suck it. | ||
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On January 06 2011 05:55 TheMango wrote: sorry, probably should take this to a PM, but since you answered here... So what strategic value would there be for mafia to kill each other? They can fake vigi/gain town cred. Better question! What strategic value would it have if the dead mafia didn't flip red if hit by his team mates? | ||
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But I think killing your own red and him appearing red can be an awesome play on Day 3 to claim vigi. But as another note, It would be awesome to see that happen in a game where mafia used cover and hit one of their own guys to make him appear town In a game that I hosted I would have a cover + hit = town death considering its a waste of a lot of resources for a mafia. | ||
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This one definitely has an Id if nothing else. | ||
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On January 03 2011 03:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and DT's tonight. All I want you to do is CHECK LURKERS. I believe most of mafia team (probably 2-3 of them) are in there and we can't analyze lurkers. It would be stupid for the mafia to try to frame one, and odds are even if they try you won't overlap. As for the list of lurkers, here is what I have: 5. Brocket 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 12. Node 15. ShoCkeyy 19. Orgolove 23. GeorgeClooney 24. d3_crescentia 27. Soulfire 30. ~OpZ~ Thats 11 people. Now since the Godfather is dead, any returns that are BLUE, or any returns you have gotten on people that are blue are 100%. In fact, anyone who has been returned town is guaranteed innocent right now. I just want to say, Annul's rage about his teams inactivity gave me this list. | ||
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Where is OpZ though? I was kind of wondering why he hit me. We couldn't really talk about it during the game because I didn't want to risk leaking information or interfering at all. I actually like claiming Vet to mafia because I am arrogant enough to think I would make a difference being alive and viewed as a kill sink then to take a hit and become a normal townie. | ||
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