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Well, it's not totally applicable. RoL is dead, and kenpachi isn't the JOAT. That means deconduo's hit is freed up, but we lost our check on kenpachi and amber. As it stands, I'm gonna advocate deconduo hits amber, but I don't know what to do about kenpachi.
Additionally, i've seen no evidence of a tracker, which means we won't have any info on fishball either, and there was never any plan to check cubedin.
That leaves 4 unknown roles out of 8, which seems like a lot of wiggle room. We really need kenpachi to tell us what he is and how he can prove it. I am thinking of a way for cubed to prove he is a doctor -- asking Ace right now if it's viable/legal. Which leaves jackal and fishball... Any more ideas? tracker care to claim? that would be a big help...
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Hmm... actually, having deconduo hit 'someone' doesn't prove anything, as there could easily be a situation such as
- deconduo (red) picks CC
- Scum buddy further down the draft (as an example, say jackal) picks up CPR doc.
- CPR doc is free to hit kenpachi, or jackal, or fishball, whichever mafia finds most beneficial
- town believes they have a role confirmed, mafia just picked up another power role.
The only benefit we can rely on from 'knowing' deconduo is CPR doc is that we control his KP. I'm sorry I wasn't here to bring this up earlier, but we should not have allowed Deconduo to pick for himself between three people. In future nights, I certainly hope that we make it explicit who we want targeted.
On January 13 2011 05:20 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2011 05:11 LSB wrote:
Well it should be pretty obvious that you have your role. But I'd rather your role be used on people who we want flipped. (Kenpachi, Jackel58, Fishball). And if you don't want to risk losing a good role, Jackel58 is a good person to hit.
In addition, the mafia doesn't have a reason to recruit the traitor, waste of night actions. Grand so, I'll zap one of Kenpachi, Jackal58, Fishball. I'm not going to announce which one however, just to stop mafia screwing me over. I was thinking that if I announce straight out which one I'm going to zap, mafia or SK could target them too so they wouldn't die. This would pretty much fuck me over tomorrow obviously. So is everyone ok with this?
Actually, if mafia/SK uses their KP to screw you over, we'll have a very low KP evening which I don't have a problem with. And unless mafia has a bunch of one-time KP roles at their disposal (JOAT is the only one I can think of atm), they won't be able to frame you well because the KP count will be so low. Additionally, if they used this tactic to save on of their own, you would only be as suspicious as the person you targeted.
Deconduo: just as one small thing you can do, please announce your target preferably after night actions are due and before the day post is up, if at all possible. If you think this is a bad idea, give me a chance to persuade you please.
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Bum, I advocated amber as a target for deconduo here
On January 12 2011 15:51 aidnai wrote:
Well, it's not totally applicable. RoL is dead, and kenpachi isn't the JOAT. That means deconduo's hit is freed up, but we lost our check on kenpachi and amber. As it stands, I'm gonna advocate deconduo hits amber, but I don't know what to do about kenpachi.
Additionally, i've seen no evidence of a tracker, which means we won't have any info on fishball either, and there was never any plan to check cubedin.
That leaves 4 unknown roles out of 8, which seems like a lot of wiggle room. We really need kenpachi to tell us what he is and how he can prove it. I am thinking of a way for cubed to prove he is a doctor -- asking Ace right now if it's viable/legal. Which leaves jackal and fishball... Any more ideas? tracker care to claim? that would be a big help...
based on my analysis of amber here
On January 12 2011 09:31 aidnai wrote:We're running out of time to do this, but I would like to present a lynch target based on believing they are scum, rather than based on wanting information. My proposed lynch is Amber[light]. Here is my case. The original post from Amber that caught my attention: Show nested quote +On January 09 2011 05:36 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Just noting I did pick a random number, and everyone should do the same. Though I don't believe the role selection process (post-draft) should be unveiled to the entire town.
More importantly: Play the role you get. If you pout because you got townie and don't participate I will personally make your mafia-playing life a living hell and accuse you EVERY game in the future just because I like to be frustrating. It's actually more important for the town to fool the mafia and pick roles to limit their KP per night. Of course we cant discuss how this should go about because there are more roles in this game than players, so it would be too easy. The goal of this process should be to make the mafia as vanilla as possible, not to ensure every player gets a role they want.
GL in the draft... This struck me as a possible scum post because of the tone and nature of the advice. Others may agree/disagree, and I can't explain it fully, so I'll just let you look and decide yourself. However, the other two posts below are much better evidence. Show nested quote +On January 10 2011 22:32 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I think looking into the draft numbers might be a lost cause. Don't forget that it would be in the best interest of the mafia to follow the plan. This ensures that they receive a role. I wouldn't be surprised if the more unique combination (higher ups) are mafia, but to be honest that's good player strategy to achieve a unique combination that throws them up to the top. People who have double are _less_ likely to be mafia, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't put down the same numbers to alleviate some suspicion.
The draft process was too transparent, so infiltration by the mafia is highly likely. In this post, Amber is spouting a mix of nonsense and obvious truth. The nonsense: - Don't forget that it would be in the best interest of the mafia to follow the plan. This ensures that they receive a role. Actually, if town follows the plan, then mafia are free to cherry pick any roles that are further down the list than their own and still be assured of a role. - The draft process was too transparent, so infiltration by the mafia is highly likely. Transparent? Infiltration? wtf are you talking about, people picked numbers and pmed them to Ace. Obvious: - but to be honest that's good player strategy to achieve a unique combination that throws them up to the top. Duh. - People who have double are _less_ likely to be mafia, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't put down the same numbers to alleviate some suspicion. Duh, and this doesn't actually say anything one way or another. I honestly don't see any reason for posting something like this other than 1) avoiding modkill AND 2) wanting to not look scummy Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 22:20 Amber[LighT] wrote:
I think you should use your ability as a NK vs a saver ability. Think about the chances of you saving someone vs killing someone. Your ability has better usage for town KP when we want to snipe mafia members, or to ensure their death.
I don't think LoR should be lynched. It's obvious who should be lynched, as we don't have any conclusive evidence of their role choice or the choice of another players: Kenpachi & Barundar
He (Kenpachi) is playing scummy and defensive, which isn't all of a shock from his normal play. Chances are he probably is the copy cat. We have to weigh the possibilities that he's actually is the copy cat. Do we want him to have that power activated? I think since we've wasted time cornering the possible copy cat allowing him to obtain a usage for his role would be wasteful as he's going to be a sure-fire target for night 1, granted we accidentally list a power role today. Do we also want that power role in the hands of a mafia member?
Mostly another potent mix of nonsense and obvious stuff, so I bolded everything else in this post. How did Amber already seem to pick out that kenpachi is probably CC? Seems pretty smart, especially compared to the rest of the post (suggesting CPR doc to kill people instead of save, you seriously think we needed you to tell us?) Also highly troubling here is the fact that in the prior post, Amber says mafia should follow the plan for their own good, but in this post he says kenpachi and barundar are the obvious lynch targets because they can't prove they followed the plan! If you don't believe your current lynch target is scum, don't lynch them and consider amber please. ##Vote Amber[light]
I also had another post requesting discussion of amber directly after RoL flipped. None of this pressure from me has picked up steam, and I understand that is likely because a) I myself was a major lynch target earlier yesterday, b) my timing with the analysis was poor (in my defense, I have never played a majority lynch game and didn't understand the consequences of splitting votes towards the end of the day), and c) fishball posted something that completely took the wind out of my sails, and he continued to write me off in his 'impressions of players' post.
All of this made me hesitant to bring up amber yet again, although I'm really itching to hear some thoughts from other players (Bum, fishball, LSB especially) at the very least.
As for deconduo's proposed targets, I would be very surprised if Jackal58 was lying (i.e. he's green), Fishball is a hard read but he's active, not behaving insane, and one of our more experienced players. If he's really town, mafia will be targeting him soon anyway, and I think killing him is a bad idea. Kenpachi I'm ambivalent, I wouldn't be surprised if he is scum or if he is town. So of the three, I'd say kenpachi, but ideally, amber.... This is mostly just posted as my thoughts, prolly too late to act now.
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Oh yes, to confirm my role:
the night kills are:
GGQ
Barundar
Divinek
HaploPaithan
Jackal58
I have ten minutes to pick a save.
Kita (and anyone else who asked): I didn't confirm or deny earlier that I would use my role tonight because while it may have made you more comfortable, there was no real reason to tell the town and hiding intentions or plans from the mafia is a good thing.
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I literally JUST got the pm from ace, saying I have ten minutes.
I don't know which of these is scum KP, SK KP, and town KP.
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divinek is a possible modkill anyway, don't feel like saving him.
Jackal58 I think is town, but also should be deconduo's hit which I don't want to mess up (just make us both look like scum)
HaploPaithan is a decent save imo (active, level headed)
Barundar is a decent save imo (high in draft, probably good role)
GGQ is a lurker, don't feel like saving him.
Between haplo and barundar, barundar is pretty quiet, he hasn't claimed, and is in the top 4 which is likely where our CC or traitor are.
This is rushed, sorry if I'm missing something important, but I choose haplo. Letting ace know now.
Sorry to any townies I couldn't save 
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it's too late, I got a pm from Ace saying times up two minutes ago, had to send in what I had.
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blegh didn't think through very clearly that if mafia/SKs are doing the killing, barundar is prolly not one of them... well see in a bit I guess.
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:/
Godfather can only use his KP on someone who voted for him. In this game, voting stops once a majority is reached, so yeah, gonna be pretty hard to convince people to vote for kenpachi at this point. I guess we won't be able to use his KP at all then...
So, with kenpachi out of the hotseat for a lynch, it's time to find a new candidate....
I've been pushing and pushing for some discussion of amber, and have been met with dead silence, so what's up with that? does my analysis suck, or was it just my bad timing? as a reminder, I pointed out a contradiction in the assumptions of two of his posts (they were consecutive). That means he either changed his mind very quickly without explaining at all, or else he didn't really believe the assumptions his posts were based on.
Also, we have several inactives/lurkers that are in danger of violating the 24 rule
Cubedin
Zeks
eiii
Jimbosilvers
BloodyC0bbler
Cubed was more active than the rest, but the latter four have 12, 12, 16, and 17 posts in the thread respectively, including prior to game start. This just ain't enough for us to get any kind of solid read guys, please post more.
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On January 13 2011 16:15 Eiii wrote:
Sorry, it's kind of hard to get a word in edgewise around here and most of the activity happens while I'm busy during the day :X
And, as was said at the time, your analysis was mostly ignored because it just looked like you were trying to save your own ass.
Actually I was out of the hotseat already, Fishball thought it looked bad because of the timing, not because I was already a target.
And you still didn't say anything, not a single opinion about haplo voting deconduo, or kenpachi being godfather, or the night kills, or me wanting more pressure on amber, or the other lurkers... surely if you read the thread enough to immediately notice me calling you out, you will have an opinion about something?
Before I go to bed, and just to put my vote where my mouth is,
##Vote: amber[light]
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Anyone else think BC is scum? I'd rather have deconduo use his shot on BC than cubed, to be honest. I really think cubed is a doctor, and most likely town since I can't think of why a scum/sk would want that role.
BC on the other hand was awfully quiet for like three days, and now he jumps in to spam FOS's everywhere (so far kenpachi, cubed, and now LSB).
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Here's why I think BC is scum.
1)
On January 11 2011 22:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
##vote layoffrage
Heading off to work and won't be back tonight, but LoR is the safest lynch target for today. Out of myself, fishball and him we are most likely the three most experienced players, and I know i'm town, which means at least one of fishball and him is most likely red. Out of those two, LoR has given the most reasons as why he is most likely a better lynch target.
By BC's own logic, we are left with a damn good chance that either BC or fishball is red, and BC has given more reasons why he's a better lynch.
2) disappears for 48 hours. As an experienced player, you're always a night kill target. If you're gonna have any effect on the game as a townie, you better get it done before the day 2 post comes up. BC had like 15 posts total before today.
If you're scum though, sure, lay low as long as there's already chaos and the lynch targets are all townies (yesterday, the lynch targets were RoL and Jackal, both green).
3) resurfaces with FOS's on Kenpachi, Cubed, and LSB. It looks to me like BC is just throwing out enough accusations to see what sticks so town will be occupied with deciding to lynch either a town GF, a likely town doctor, or our town leader. Although I will readily admit that ken picking godfather is weird, and it's possible he saved JOAT for a scum further down the draft. And cubed I was suspicious of before today, but less so after his claim.
4) He picked godfather?! this role is much more useful to scum than town (because of alignment checks), so um, why pick it over something like doctor? if you are thinking you won't live long, why not hider or bulletproof or vet? or a one time use like witch? or if you want to deny scum a role, how about prince of darkness or janitor, which are both pretty dangerous for town?
However, I think as a mafia, GF is a great choice for BC. BC should be a prime target for an alignment check, since he's an experienced player AND hard to read, so GF for him could save the scum team a lot of headaches...
Speaking of alignment checks,
On January 10 2011 10:17 Eiii wrote:
I'll be taking alignment cop.
What did you find out last night?
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Bum, we are definitely going to take care of Deconduo, but we should at least use his day vig hit today. My advice is hit BC, not LSB. In any case, we should try to get a strong town consensus on how to use the day vig hit, since it's essentially a double lynch for us.
Everyone chime in please on who deconduo should hit today.
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ken, we don't need a wagon, we're talking about who deconduo can use his day vig shot on. Do you think BC is a good target for a vig hit? that's the question.
and eiii, do you have an opinion of who we should shoot today? and are you going to tell us the results of your check?
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Don't forget to weigh in on who should be shot right now, eiii, LSB and cubed. Deconduo's hit should be used sooner than later, in case we get any juicy information from it, it'd be good to have time to adjust our plans accordingly before we have to lynch someone.
A good deadline for using the hit would be 1200KST, just over an hour from now, which gives us a full 24hours to discuss/vote on our lynch.
thanks for reminding me about parity cop, kita, I copy pasted the role list into an excel file before that change was made and forgot about it.
Hopefully some of these people will swing by to give their opinions soon about who to shoot:
misder
jimbosilvers
beneather
zeks (Lurker)
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cubed says shoot cubed
aidnai says shoot BC
bumatlarge says shoot LSB or BC
Amber[light] says shoot BC
Pigsquirrel says shoot LSB
Kenpachi loosely implies shoot BC... i'll just quote him
On January 14 2011 09:31 Kenpachi wrote:
##vote abstain
eh.. BC wagon isnt going to happen today so no lynch for me.
fishball says meh
Not enough people to be decisive. I don't like it, but this will have to wait until morning. Less time to pick a lynch, sigh.
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omg I have a new profile pic!
Thanks Bum!
BTW bum, I'm sorry you're pictures didn't make it clear enough for me. Did you say you tracked LSB somewhere? or got actual information? LSB has made my eyebrows raise a couple times, for instance,
On January 11 2011 08:48 LSB wrote:
I'm going all out analytics this game. Work last game helping find the sk, so don't expect much spam from me.
Well, LayoffRage is probably the day vig (if not vanilla), so...
vs.
On January 13 2011 03:30 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 13 2011 03:26 kitaman27 wrote:
@LSB, relying on roles rather than analysis? You know better than that, don't you? I'm not sure why I would be considered murkey, with the exception of the traitor plausibility which I can confirm tomorrow. I wouldn't mind a medic on myself and deconduo considering a MIA copycat with an extra kp would be extremely dangerous. Have you seen recent TL analysis? XXXV was a game of lynching and shooting people who actually decided to think rather than blindly following the general opinion. I'd rather not trust this game on the so call 'analysis' thankyouvery much.
As well as
On January 11 2011 08:48 LSB wrote:
I'm going all out analytics this game. Work last game helping find the sk, so don't expect much spam from me.
Well, LayoffRage is probably the day vig (if not vanilla), so...
vs.
LSB total in-thread post count: 148 = 1/6th of all posts in a 30 player game = 5x average persons post count.
But does all that make him scum? DrH for example has a history of spamming the thread, bossing the town around, asking for roleclaims, etc as an actual townie. It's easy to do when you don't trust anyone else to lead the town or make decisions. I'm conflicted trying to read him...
One thing LSB did that doesn't make sense from a scum point of view: he told me to save barundar, who was very possibly the mafia's hit. Blue snipe, good role, LSB told me that's who I should save. Unfortunate that he was a minute or two late to tell me, but since Barundar flipped, we know LSB's pick would have in fact saved town/bullet bill...
Also, I don't think it's likely that both LSB and BC are scum. Perhaps one scum, one SK, but how likely is that? not very in my opinion. And of the two of them, only LSB has a justifiable reason for picking GF. So I'm sticking to my guns on this one. Shoot BC.
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Here's what's stupid, BC:
Point 3 time.
I start to post, (much like I promised I would the night before!) and post analysis. I try to emphasis on the idiodicness of kenpachi taking gf as #2 pick based on his arguments. Simple FoS that hey, I wasnt the only one to make.
The FoS on cube. Guess what, he lied. Plain and simple he lied, straight up, made a generic assumption no one would be smart enough to double check the role list, and I called him out on it. Factor in hes a suspect for traitor and it makes him look all the more guilty. Then for LSB, guess what, everything I posted is accurate. Look at the posts, analyze it. The guy has not been behaving in the best interest of the town. Anyone can see that with the posts brought up. Yet here you are defending him, interesting.
We're all busy. I have a job too. And spamming the thread just makes it hard to sort through anything. Therefore, you have to pick your battles. You have to post carefully and stay focussed. When you think you found a scum, you have to make your case and follow through.
Even if you brought up legitimate points against LSB cubed and kenpachi (which I acknowledged in my original post), you're not following through, you're not trying to convince us they're scum, you're just throwing it out there to see if we'll bite. Tell me, do you really think all three of them are scum? Even here as you are defending your FOS's, you're not accusing them of actually being scum, you're just criticizing their play. But townies make mistakes, and bad townie =/= scum. Scumhunting 101.
On January 14 2011 14:37 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
...
You just quoted posts of LSB's that are contradicting in nature and still want me dead.....that is perhaps the most hilarious thing I have ever seen. As for justifiable reasons for picking GF, he had none aside from a scum made plan...one he didn't fully follow as guess what. HE DIDN"T CLAIM HIS ROLE WAS TAKEN. which was part of his plan, he was one of the roles marked in red. You can say he had a "justifiable reason" for taking his role, but he then failed to follow through on his plan and began role fishing for information.
You also compare him to DrH, who has a history of doing the same thing as LSB, and leading town's to terrrrrrible outcomes. Remember in the first bootcamp game where he lost the game for the town by day 2? Yea, that's the level of player you just compared lsb to, someone who as town throws the game away. Yet you still are following him? You're seeing a player who is obviously not playing town sided, one who lies, and yet you still want me dead?
Are you really playing this stupidly?
You're doing it again-- equating bad town play with scum play. It's not the same, even bad townies want the town to win. Lynching a bad townie gets you closer to a scum win, not a town win. So tell us, is LSB scum or a bad townie?
Your attack on DrH by the way is over the top. Luck conspired against town in salem as well as bad play. DrH was goaded into forming a circle by a random medic claim. Southrawrea happened to be chosen as godfather, and happened to be checked by the DT night 1. Although DrH was entirely too focussed on the town circle, his analysis did correctly identify Radfield and Jimbosilvers as scum as the game progressed.
Also, I'm not aware of LSB or DrH having a particularly bad record of leading towns to terrrrrrible outcomes. But I guess you've been around longer...
I still think you are scum (or maybe SK?).
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I STRONGLY dislike the anonymous vote. I would rather have people put their own name on what they vote for, just like the lynch. I know it's more work deconduo, but you should go off of what people say in thread, not based off of that poll.
I had a moderate sized post ready to go this morning when our ISP when down... Now it's mostly irrelevant already, but here's two things I still want to put out there:
When someone makes a massive fuck up you FoS them, period.
I'm wondering if a few other experienced players could weigh in on this. If BC legitimately believes this, it could explain a lot of his behavior, and I will reconsider my read of him. My opinion is that throwing FOS's around whenever you catch an error/mistake/lie is counterproductive unless you believe the person is scum. Am I incorrect?
I have a big day at work today. Except for possibly my lunch break, I will be AFK until shortly before the lynch vote is due. Town: please pick a vig hit for deconduo ASAP. Then move on and pick a lynch target, I should be back in time to read and vote for that. If nothing is happening, I'm counting on someone setpping it up...I'll change to abstain for now.
##Unvote Amber
##Vote Abstain
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Unvote abstain
##Vote Deconduo
Until that kill goes through, Deconduo is our lynch today. Remember, majority lynch, so don't hammer, but he's not a townie and we have no reason to trust him.
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EPT
