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On January 11 2011 13:11 LayOffRage wrote:
##Vote: Fishball
I view him most likely to be the traitor.
But if he's traitor then CC gets the traitor as well then we have to deal with that again. If you think that Fishball is a traitor then maybe the next day.I really do not want to deal with another traitor.
There are so many accusations on different people being the traitor  I understand that we need to deal with that after this first death because CC will get traitor.
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##Vote abstain
no solid target yet and i dont wanna be modkilled for not voting in time.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 13:02 Beneather wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 12:56 kitaman27 wrote:On January 11 2011 12:36 LSB wrote:
Jackal58 should be the copycat.
But as for the pardoner, I agree that the role should be used early to prevent mafia from using it late game to pull off a lylo win. At the same time though, it can prevent a townie from being lynched. At the same time, if the copycat is scum, then pardoning the day one lynch gives the mafia the role of their choice. Either way, would like hear more from Jackal. ##Vote LayOffRage Maybe this might motivate him join the discussion. But how would they have the role of their choice if they do not know who picked what in the draft since people didn't follow the LSB's plan. If they did and got Copy Cat + Pardoner they could easily have got the role that they wanted, but luckily people didn't.
I'm not sure about you, but I think I have a pretty good idea where most of the roles worth sniping are. Plus, the mafia all know their own identities so that helps their chances even more.
On January 11 2011 13:03 GGQ wrote:
I want to hear LayOffRage's reason for calling Fishball the traitor. Was it supposed to be a joke, or do you have some secret reasoning?
nope, looks like it worked 
##unvote LayOffRage
On January 11 2011 13:05 LayOffRage wrote:My reasoning is that I attempted to pick the traitor role and it was already gone. so someone above my draft pick took it. If you read earlier fishball refused to pick any of the suggested roles which made me think he was most likely the one who took my role. I was very sadface
Great we have a lead.
1. deconduo
2. Kenpachi
3. kitaman27
4. Barundar
5. Jackal58
6. Fishball
7. Amber[Light]
8. CubEdIn
We probably don't want to lynch the traitor day one because of copy cat, rather night hit him.
I can confirm my role night two, deconduo and amber can confirm their roles night one. However, I'm not sure I'm ready to clear deconduo just yet due to the whole pm incident. That leaves us with:
2. Kenpachi
4. Barundar
5. Jackal58
6. Fishball
8. CubEdIn
There is a possibility LayOffRage is leading us on a witch hunt in the top 8, but I feel that's unlikely. Maybe he would be a good role cop check.
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On January 11 2011 13:13 Pigsquirrel wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 13:10 Beneather wrote:On January 11 2011 13:03 Pigsquirrel wrote:On January 11 2011 12:56 LSB wrote:
Good point.
I'm cool with a Day 1 Pardon plan then if no good target shows up. Adding to above, LSB agrees right away with a plan that, according to the post directly above him, "then pardoning the day one lynch gives the mafia the role of their choice" It's a real gamble to pardon day 1 lynch unless we know whether or not CC is scum, or even who the copy cat is. If the CC did not pick who he was supposed to and it was taken by scum later in the draft, we are screwed if the mafia gets a hidden bonus KP. I think we need to lynch a useless (to the mafia) role on day 1 to eliminate the risk of scum getting a copy of a dangerous role. How is it a gamble to pardon? Pardoning is a scum role so if we force a pardon then they get to choose who to kill. We'll also know that the person who got pardoned is mafia and we can just use CPR Doc. on him. Also Pardoner can only use once so we don't have to worry about anymore of those. I also suggest at night that the doctors should protect the CPR Doc. On the first night so that CC doesn't get CPR Doc if he is mafia. No. I'm saying that pardoning day 1 lynch is a gamble because if CC is scum, mafia gets a free role of their choice. What do we get from pardoning day 1? Using up a scummy role's power. What's the risk: Potentially giving scum a free copy of whatever role they want. Doesn't seem worth it to me, especially considering that we can just pardon day 2 and get all the benefit without giving scum a free role.
But how do they know they know who has what role? No one followed the plan. So they have no real way of knowing what they will get. Also if they hit some who has BP or protection they lose their KP but we also have to worry about the SK and his KP.
Pardoning Day 2 is safer, I agree with that.
[green]There is 2 KPs at night and there's a pardon on day one ? Then who's kill goes first SK or Mafia's? If it's SK then CC gets the role of whoever SK killed?
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There is 2 KPs at night and there's a pardon on day one? Then who's kill goes first SK or Mafia's If it's SK then CC gets the role of whoever SK Killed right?
Sorry I forgot the ending for the green code 
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On January 11 2011 12:14 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote:
##Aidnai
An easy choice. If hes not mafia, then fishball's speculation loses some cred, and it would seem mroe likely he picked traitor (still waiting for layoff to post his reasons why), but if aidnai is red, there could be easy scum lynches in that little pack. It's an opportunity on 1st lynch. Doesn't happen all that often. This doesn't sound like analysis Bum. It sounds like the good old "we can get information from this lynch! yay!" I want to warn people that it is incredibly easy to misread Aidnai as scum. I used him in Harry Potter to divert the lynch.
I didn't realize he had played before. And I've posted my thoughts on him. Even so, The fact that he has played a game before doesn't change my opinions on him.
But on the note of Copy cat taking traitor, that could be a problem. Aidnai has claimed he is vanilla from picking traitor, which means one is in the top 8. Although if a traitor is pressured he will claim he is vanilla to cause confusion. So I will present scenarios.
Lynching vs Not Lynching
We lynch Aidnai
1. Aidnai is traitor. Role goes to Copy Cat, and we assume it was picked. We CPR him.
--a) Copycat is killed. No more CC but no more traitors. All other blue roles are in tact as well.
--b) Mafia use KP on Copycat, both recruiting him and protecting him from CPR (I believe). While this seems ideal for scum, they waste a KP as we proceed to lynch copycat. We essentially get a free night without mafia's KP, which is the most dangerous. No reason not to CPR him.
2. Aidnai is town. Traitor exists in top 8, copy cat does not get role. Same situation except we have no control over it. We will have to figure this out when we come to this.
3. Aidnai is mafia.
We do not lynch Aidnai.
1. Don't lynch anyone. Traitor among us. This would be a fine description of a god awful town.
2. Lynch someone else.
--a) Top 8. Assume one of them there is the traitor.
---- They are not. Strong role dies most likely. Traitor gets pat on the back from mafia and they go out for ice cream.
---- They are. Impressive town.
--b) Not top 8. Traitor still there...
I believe lynching aidnai is the best option.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 13:45 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 12:14 LSB wrote:On January 11 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote:
##Aidnai
An easy choice. If hes not mafia, then fishball's speculation loses some cred, and it would seem mroe likely he picked traitor (still waiting for layoff to post his reasons why), but if aidnai is red, there could be easy scum lynches in that little pack. It's an opportunity on 1st lynch. Doesn't happen all that often. This doesn't sound like analysis Bum. It sounds like the good old "we can get information from this lynch! yay!" I want to warn people that it is incredibly easy to misread Aidnai as scum. I used him in Harry Potter to divert the lynch. I didn't realize he had played before. And I've posted my thoughts on him. Even so, The fact that he has played a game before doesn't change my opinions on him. But on the note of Copy cat taking traitor, that could be a problem. Aidnai has claimed he is vanilla from picking traitor, which means one is in the top 8. Although if a traitor is pressured he will claim he is vanilla to cause confusion. So I will present scenarios. Lynching vs Not LynchingWe lynch Aidnai 1. Aidnai is traitor. Role goes to Copy Cat, and we assume it was picked. We CPR him. --a) Copycat is killed. No more CC but no more traitors. All other blue roles are in tact as well. --b) Mafia use KP on Copycat, both recruiting him and protecting him from CPR (I believe). While this seems ideal for scum, they waste a KP as we proceed to lynch copycat. We essentially get a free night without mafia's KP, which is the most dangerous. No reason not to CPR him. 2. Aidnai is town. Traitor exists in top 8, copy cat does not get role. Same situation except we have no control over it. We will have to figure this out when we come to this. 3. Aidnai is mafia. We do not lynch Aidnai. 1. Don't lynch anyone. Traitor among us. This would be a fine description of a god awful town. 2. Lynch someone else. --a) Top 8. Assume one of them there is the traitor. ---- They are not. Strong role dies most likely. Traitor gets pat on the back from mafia and they go out for ice cream. ---- They are. Impressive town. --b) Not top 8. Traitor still there... I believe lynching aidnai is the best option.
umm bum? Your analysis is nice and all, but you might wanna reread the thread
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EBWOP: ROFL I merged layoffrage and aidnai into one person... it stills remains the same. For clarity's sake.
+ Show Spoiler +Lynching vs Not Lynching
We lynch LayOffRage
1. LOR is traitor. Role goes to Copy Cat, and we assume it was picked. We CPR him.
--a) Copycat is killed. No more CC but no more traitors. All other blue roles are in tact as well.
--b) Mafia use KP on Copycat, both recruiting him and protecting him from CPR (I believe). While this seems ideal for scum, they waste a KP as we proceed to lynch copycat. We essentially get a free night without mafia's KP, which is the most dangerous. No reason not to CPR him.
2. LOR is town. Traitor exists in top 8, copy cat does not get role. Same situation except we have no control over it. We will have to figure this out when we come to this.
3. LOR is mafia.
We do not lynch LOR.
1. Don't lynch anyone. Traitor among us. This would be a fine description of a god awful town.
2. Lynch someone else.
--a) Top 8. Assume one of them there is the traitor.
---- They are not. Strong role dies most likely. Traitor gets pat on the back from mafia and they go out for ice cream.
---- They are. Impressive town.
--b) Not top 8. Traitor still there...
I believe lynching LOR is the best option.
##Unvote Aidnai
##Vote LayOffRage
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Umm... I don't know if LOR actualy claimed that he picked traitor
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 13:50 LSB wrote:
Umm... I don't know if LOR actualy claimed that he picked traitor
Maybe you missed this?
On January 11 2011 13:05 LayOffRage wrote:My reasoning is that I attempted to pick the traitor role and it was already gone. so someone above my draft pick took it. If you read earlier fishball refused to pick any of the suggested roles which made me think he was most likely the one who took my role. I was very sadface
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Omg! How do we know who is CC?!
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On January 11 2011 13:47 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 13:45 bumatlarge wrote:On January 11 2011 12:14 LSB wrote:On January 11 2011 12:08 bumatlarge wrote:
##Aidnai
An easy choice. If hes not mafia, then fishball's speculation loses some cred, and it would seem mroe likely he picked traitor (still waiting for layoff to post his reasons why), but if aidnai is red, there could be easy scum lynches in that little pack. It's an opportunity on 1st lynch. Doesn't happen all that often. This doesn't sound like analysis Bum. It sounds like the good old "we can get information from this lynch! yay!" I want to warn people that it is incredibly easy to misread Aidnai as scum. I used him in Harry Potter to divert the lynch. I didn't realize he had played before. And I've posted my thoughts on him. Even so, The fact that he has played a game before doesn't change my opinions on him. But on the note of Copy cat taking traitor, that could be a problem. Aidnai has claimed he is vanilla from picking traitor, which means one is in the top 8. Although if a traitor is pressured he will claim he is vanilla to cause confusion. So I will present scenarios. Lynching vs Not LynchingWe lynch Aidnai 1. Aidnai is traitor. Role goes to Copy Cat, and we assume it was picked. We CPR him. --a) Copycat is killed. No more CC but no more traitors. All other blue roles are in tact as well. --b) Mafia use KP on Copycat, both recruiting him and protecting him from CPR (I believe). While this seems ideal for scum, they waste a KP as we proceed to lynch copycat. We essentially get a free night without mafia's KP, which is the most dangerous. No reason not to CPR him. 2. Aidnai is town. Traitor exists in top 8, copy cat does not get role. Same situation except we have no control over it. We will have to figure this out when we come to this. 3. Aidnai is mafia. We do not lynch Aidnai. 1. Don't lynch anyone. Traitor among us. This would be a fine description of a god awful town. 2. Lynch someone else. --a) Top 8. Assume one of them there is the traitor. ---- They are not. Strong role dies most likely. Traitor gets pat on the back from mafia and they go out for ice cream. ---- They are. Impressive town. --b) Not top 8. Traitor still there... I believe lynching aidnai is the best option. umm bum? Your analysis is nice and all, but you might wanna reread the thread
Yeah I meant LOR but I just ended my thoughts on aidnai and the name was stuck when i typed it up lolol
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On January 11 2011 13:54 Beneather wrote:
Omg! How do we know who is CC?!
we dont.
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I say we lynch fishball. don't be gay bum.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 11 2011 13:55 Kenpachi wrote:we dont.
Jackal stated that he intended to follow the LSB plan and select copy cat. Do you guys not trust his claim?
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On January 11 2011 13:57 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 11 2011 13:55 Kenpachi wrote:On January 11 2011 13:54 Beneather wrote:
Omg! How do we know who is CC?! we dont. Jackal stated that he intended to follow the LSB plan and select copy cat. Do you guys not trust his claim?
oh. didnt know that lol
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Well if they did follow LSB's plan
+ Show Spoiler +On January 10 2011 00:03 LSB wrote:
LSB's Plan in a nutshell
RED and GREEN spots are obligated to pick their roles
1. CPR Doc
2. JOAT
3. Vig
4. Bullet Bill
5. Copy Cat
6. Doctor
7. Role Blocker
8. Doctor
9. Day Vig
10. Role Cop
11. Pardoner
12. Alignment Cop
13. Politican
14. Tracker
15. Mason
16. Witch
17. Hider
18. Janitor
19. Bulletproof
20. Prince of Darkness
21. Veteran
22. God Father
That would leave Barundar as number 4. I know I said I didn't agree with the 100% necessity of picking what you get in the list, but the farther up the list you go the more important it is that you pick the role, or at least threaten to. I don't see why he wouldn't, as it is a strong role.
He should claim right now whether he did or not, as he is playing for the town at the moment and we don't know for certain whether LOr is traitor so Barundar should... but he doesn't know if... so how can he really... holy shit
Barundar are you ready to confront...
+ Show Spoiler +Schrodinger's Cat? ![[image loading]](http://www.philosophy.christopher-roberts.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Schrodingers-cat.jpg) Wow it like actually applies...
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EBWOP:
FUCK AGAIN I SWITCH THE NAMES
God dammit, correction; Is jackal ready to confront schrodinger's cat... ugh now it loses all of its epicness.
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On January 11 2011 13:57 LayOffRage wrote:
I say we lynch fishball. don't be gay bum.
Sorry man. I'm not the one who picked traitor. :/ As a rule of thumb we really have to lynch you to see if you are telling the truth. Otherwise you could be traitor and force your way. it's like when a DT claims and points to someone, we really have to lynch that person no matter what the accused says. I see potential for fishball to be traitor, but I've based that on what I know of him, and his logic has been more sound then some people here.
It's a policy lynch. If you can convince us not to lynch you, then great, but I've gone against policy lynch before (See Penalty Mafia: Bill Murray), and it's the worse feeling in the world to be wrong. I'll see what others say.
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On January 11 2011 13:05 LayOffRage wrote:My reasoning is that I attempted to pick the traitor role and it was already gone. so someone above my draft pick took it. If you read earlier fishball refused to pick any of the suggested roles which made me think he was most likely the one who took my role. I was very sadface
Ah, so you finally decided to post some "reason" regarding your accusation other than that one liner. To be honest, it was almost as good as my scum hunting skills.
Now for Fishball's original ask-yourself-a-question time.
For my draft pick, I was assigned Medic. If I were to pick Traitor, why would I want to announce that I would pick another role before hand? Would it not be better if I did it secretly? Keep in mind, the most convenient way for the Traitor to get recruited is to be hit by the Mafia. If I stuck with the plan, as a medic, wouldn't that increase the chances of me getting hit thus getting recruited? My play thus far has been fairly vocal. Radical accusations, yes, but not entirely without reason. Look at one of those main candidates for lynch, aidnai; Who was the first one to bring him up? BC haven't posted, misder submerged after a brief counter attack, etc.. From what I've seen in the past 24 hours, I've received rather negative reception from the town. Now why would the Mafia want to hit or use their powers on a target like me, a self proclaimed non-medic player, with a small target on top of his head? If I were the Traitor, this serves me no good.
In PYP2, I was Mafia, and was able to use the accusation of a "potential Traitor" to direct a lot of Town's attention and their resources to hunt for this so called Traitor. We allowed the accuser to live as long as possible, thus he was not able to prove whether or not himself was the Traitor. If LayOffRage is the Traitor, and diverts the Town to hunt for said role among those 8 players, by the time we get the Traitor, it might be too late. In PYP2, I also specially told my teammates that we would refrain from hitting any of the candidates for a Traitor, to prolong the confusion as much as possible. There is no immediate gain for the Mafia at all unless its really down to the wire. In that game, Town ended up hunting for the Traitor for like 5 cycles or so.
Keep in mind, Town's main goal is to target Mafia and the SK. The Traitor should only be our third priority. Worst case scenario, the Traitor get's recruited, but the KP of the Mafia doesn't change, so it isn't exactly a huge deal like mentioned above.
Right now, I propose to lynch "LayOffRage" for three reasons.
- Eliminates the possibility that he is Traitor himself crying wolf.
- If he dies and flips Vanilla, the Copy Cat (alignment unknown) will not get any surprising powers. This also proves that there is indeed a Traitor among the top 8, and the Town should be aware.
- Eliminates the chance of losing a power role for Town, unlike other lynch targets.
If none of the above makes sense, and the Town wants to follow the footsteps of PYP2 regarding the Traitor, be my very guest. If you guys have a different plan, that's fine as well.
##Vote LayOffRage
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EPT
