Insane Mafia - Page 6

On November 08 2010 08:27 kitaman27 wrote:
Nemesis, I noticed you changed your vote from Ace to me based on his weak defense.

Explain to me why I would put myself out here like this to target a single town member.

14 town remaining
5 mafia remaining

A 1:1 trade doesn't work out too well, now does it?

On November 08 2010 10:07 L wrote:

Seems like both. Once I discovered the M-rus portion of Cube's role, he was essentially confirmed blue. From mafia's point of view, the claim is hyper-complex to engineer. From his point of view, he didn't even think about m-rus spreading as an argument, nor did anyone else.

If mafia had thought about the trade off, someone would have made the comment very quickly.

Instead, we confirmed that mafia had probably infected cubed if they have a targetted infection method, which makes sense given what we've seen in terms of the M-rus spread. If cube repeatedly targetted himself, a N1 spread to him would have been immediately stopped, whereas n2 had a spread to someone who was involved with at least 2 other people. Given the net +4 infection rate we see afterwards, its likely mrus is actually ramping up its infection speed.

As for Ace's catch, I dont' see any of the standard roles working in a way other than the way they've typically worked. For mafia, a tradeoff here is optimal, but if they can get their player to avoid being hit, its game winning.

They push someone off the vote train and thus get the ability to push him later if they so choose, they pick a dangerous target to them and have him eliminated asap, and they get to control not only today's targets, but also one of tomorrow's. In that environment, they'll lose 1 mafia from the fake claim after protecting today's kp, giving them a net of 2 lynch, 2kp+1, 1/1 lynch, and 1+1. This rolls out to -8 townies -1 mafia, which puts us at 11 townies, 4 mafia.

But the kicker? Mrus just exploded. If mafia pick their targets and know who's infected they're less likely to get infected, which means mrus will explode for 7-9 people worth, killing maybe 1-2 mafia. At best, we're 4 town v 2 mafia. Lylo. At worst we've lost 2-4. And that's ignoring any other tricks they have up their sleeve. What's a probable trick? Their mrus spreader has mrus himself. If he's sacrificed, they don't care; he's going to die anyways.

That's why I'm far more willing to kill players like Nemesis who have been keeping their heads down, because it not only plays to classic mafia strengths, but it keeps blue's attention on other players and minimizes the likelihood that they've gotten infected. Meapak as well decided to show up and post a complete non sequitur, showing he's around but that he still doesn't want to deal with the shit that's been thrown at him. That's. Fucked. Up.

On November 07 2010 08:22 KtheZ wrote:
Considering that the state of the town is in complete disarray, I will now roleclaim.

I am the detective. However, I suspect that I am an "insane detective".
The reasons and my finding will be below.

On night 1, I forgot to investigate anyone, being the lurker dumbass I was.
On night 2, I investigated Pandain. I found him to be the MAFIA Garbage collector.
On night 3, I investigated infinitestory, and found him to be the MAFIA ADD detective.

Now, what the hell? Why would the mafia have an ADD Detective? This has led me to conclude that I am insane.

Now, assuming I'm an insane detective, it is apparent that Pandain and infinitestory are town-aligned.
I am no longer into lynching pandain; I had found him to be mafia, which is why i was so ardent in pursuing his lynch.

I feel that infinitestory's results are now trustworthy, and that pandain did not lie about his role.

If you think I am lying, look at my posts against pandain. I was so one-mindedly pursuing pandain because I thought he was mafia. However, this night has confirmed my sad suspicion that I am "insane".

On November 04 2010 10:30 KtheZ wrote:
Pandain, anyone can scream unconfirmable role if they decide to roleclaim.
Why hasnt Dr.H?

And why are you the FIRST PERSON in the game to claim this?
Also, at least giving details on the CONDITIONS that need to be achieved so you can confirm your role would be nice, instead of this vague stuff we keep getting.

On November 04 2010 10:56 KtheZ wrote:

The main purpose of a DT check is to check ALIGNMENT. Other tidbits are just useful to know.
Having two ALIGNMENT DTs in a game doesnt make sense. For example, in haunted mafia(which i failed epically and will make up for), there were 2 dts for 60 people. Now, considering that we have ~ 30-40 people, I find it Extremely unlikely that town has TWO RANDOM ALIGNMENT CHECKERS. For all we know, you could be scum; you never claimed alignment (But you'll obviously claim town). And for all we know you could be lying about your role, your role actions, or anything you want.

EBWODP

On November 04 2010 11:09 KtheZ wrote: I noticed, which is why I think hes lying about his role/role action

On November 04 2010 10:58 KtheZ wrote:


take into consideration that in your case, the mafia had a PD.
And pandain is most likely lying about his role/role action

On November 08 2010 12:10 KtheZ wrote:
have you noticed that in almost each of my posts against pandain, I always said his role/ROLE ACTION could be a lie?
Proves my point above even further.

EBWODP

On November 08 2010 12:33 KtheZ wrote:


I was trying not to show myself as a detective, since I felt that at that point it was not wise to roleclaim. Plus, I mixed up the words GARBAGE and TRASH. It really is not a notable detail for you to nitpick about.

I have good reason to check infinitestory. Since I suspected myself to be insane, checking him was the reasonable thing to do. Since he had claimed ADD Detective, I could either:
A. Find him lying about his role (and find him town, which would confirm my suspicion of insanity) or
B. Find him telling the truth about his role (and find him mafia, which doesnt make sense and also confirms my insanity)
or
C. Find him lying about his role (and find him mafia, which I really doubted would happen if he actually was town)

The benefit of this is also that we can confirm infinitestory's checks upon other people.

I have had very few (if none at all) scum-like actions this game. The entire pandain ordeal, I always qualified my analysis with the statement that his ROLE ACTION may be a lie, which noone else at the time had ever stated or taken into consideration.

On November 08 2010 15:13 infinitestory wrote:

i think we have a winner here

On November 08 2010 15:30 infinitestory wrote:

hits last night:
DrH (bussed by deconduo, likely swapped with NB)
Cubed (roleblocked while protting self, killed)
Beneather (confirmed to have had his voodoo doll on DrH)
DCLXVI (confirmed to have died due to role, selfdestructed)
deconduo (confirmed to have died due to DC's selfdestruct)

so you were involved in the hit of either DrH or Cubed? Why the hell? If you were one of the guys mentioned in the day post, that means you either carried out a hit yourself or were the guy roleblocking Cubed. Since there is no reason to roleblock a confirmed medic, and DrH was confirmed 100% townie just before, I have to assume you decided to hit Cubed. But that doesn't make sense either. Were you somehow involved in a killing in a way not mentioned in the Day post? The possibilities dwindle, and so does the likelihood of you being town.

btw this now means that every inspection that kitaman made has been correct, even if his role name is weird.

On November 08 2010 15:52 infinitestory wrote:

we never said 666 blew deconduo with a bomb, in fact we clarified several times that his bombs never went off at all

ace said (untruthfully, it seems o_O) that deconduo probably died in 666's suicide bomb

On November 09 2010 01:38 kitaman27 wrote:


So I receive information that you make a hit and there were four hits during the night. Three of them are mafia related and one is unknown. Lets assume there are two vig roles that could kill a scum.

That gives us a 17/19~90% chance you were involved in the mafia hit (actual number doesn't matter, just the fact that the odds were much higher being scum than town). I could have asked nicely for you to reveal your role, but I doubt that would have worked out, so you were put into a situation where you were forced to make a claim to protect yourself. So here are the possible outcomes of your claim:

1) You are a vig variation who killed deconduo
2) You are a scum who fake claimed vig

If the first situation holds true, I can't think of a situation where a mafia would secretly hit one of their own, so you are likely town.

In the second situation there are two possibilities:

1) Another town member targeted deconduo
2) deconduo used his busing ability on a role that triggered his death

With the first possibility the town member who actually made the hit could claim, so until we here otherwise, I will assume that's not the case.

The second part is more difficult to prove. I would think that the town member who made the kill would receive some type of notification that they were targeted, however. Is this a safe assumption?
Seeing as it was obviously NB and DoctorH that was switched by deconduo. If his death had to do with visiting his switch, NB would have already told us about it

As L pointed out, your connection with M-Rus has still not been explained.
Anyone that is infected with M-rus, if they visit someone or is visited by someone spreads the infection to the visitee and visitor. I just asked Artanis and it seems that we won't be notified if someone was infected when they die.We can't confirm this but my guess is that Ace is infected with murrayitis and spread M-rus to deconduo during his visit.

I'm willing to call a truce, unless the town is able to discredit your claim or someone points out a flaw in my logic.

The situation still provided us some useful information, as there were two main groups to be suspicious of:

Those who immediately opposed my claim without a strong reason to believe otherwise.
Specifically: KtheZ, Pandain, youngminii

And the lurkers who immediately jumped on Ace:
Specifically: Nemesis, Glasse, Kenpachi
If I am a lurker, then you are more of a lurker than me before your roleclaim: all of your previous post are no content one-liners. I would say that I've been quite active in the thread, I don't see how I am suddenly a lurker because L says I am.

On November 10 2010 11:25 Infundibulum wrote:


How does that make him most likely blue? We don't know how the random +1 kill works; it could pick among only the set of blue players or it could pick among the set of all players including reds. If the latter is true, then NB getting bussed says nothing about his alignment except that mafia wanted to kill DR. H. instead of NB.

(as a side note, if mafia can bus the random kill then it isn't really random. so does this entire scenario even make any sense?)

On November 10 2010 11:27 Kenpachi wrote:

You sound confident.. do you know what the fuck your talking about? I doubt you read my posts carefully enough to just post "lol nice attempt." When im revealed blue, ima quote you.

On November 10 2010 11:06 Kenpachi wrote:

Imo, there are 3 possibilities
1. Pandain is fucking red
2. theres a flaw in pandain's role
3. Someones able to frame others as mafia

nothing in my role is flawed to lead him to find me as a red

On October 31 2010 09:10 Kenpachi wrote:
LOL THE BOOGER.
well, would it be that someone has a nosepicking related profile? is he even mafia?

also, i am not the elder guys. Is it even confirmed if HE is the mafia either? ~_~

On October 31 2010 09:36 Kenpachi wrote:

cant really say. im not one to decide on inactivity.. right now, i only read posts with my name in it and so far im a suspect again..
Would it be possible to provide evidential clues >_>

On November 04 2010 09:29 Kenpachi wrote:
am back. sorry for a delay from posting.. after all, im just a teenager.

Ill do a page for Pandain.. pg4

On November 10 2010 10:27 Kenpachi wrote:
eh.. fuck lynch Pandain when i die. i cant defend myself from this

On November 10 2010 11:47 L wrote:

L is red because he called me out as inactive?

Sounds legit.

Anyways, where's node at?

On November 04 2010 10:03 L wrote:
Nemesis starts off the game pretty apologetic. Makes a case for the mayor being super dangerous, then realizes that the mayor gets an extra vote, not an extra lynch.

He asks fishball's circle to reveal itself to confirm fishball during the elections.

Some M-rus related posts.

Supports pandain on the account that he's a good communicator, but easy to spot as mafia.

Skeptical of DrH's ability to be confirmed. Says he doesn't trust him.

Pushes on Orgolove and Youngmiini as his top 2 scumreads.

Comes out against roleclaiming, despite having asked the fishball crew to step up earlier.

Wow. I'm only halfway through but this is looking pretty bad.

Going to LoL is up for a bit, I'll finish soon.

On November 01 2010 14:21 L wrote:
Okay, just got my pms and whatnot, so I think this is the game I'm supposed to be in. I'm hungover from last night's partying and drunk from this night's partying so I'll catch up as much as I can after sleeping off the effects of imbibing an amount of alcohol sufficient to disinfect all of the wounded at solferino.

On November 02 2010 01:06 L wrote:
That's because Aeres is probably a hatter type role that wanted to get hit, so he claimed BG to draw attention to himself and away from more vulnerable/valuable players. He's likely not a VI role, because the revealed roles thusfar are relatively watered down and mafia started with 9 fucking members + there's aids going around (unless the game design is based around town's ability to use murrayitis as a shock and awe town controlled kp attack, which it doesn't seem to be).

The push to get him killed here is pretty understandable due to people loving LAL, but there's zero way someone would vote for themselves as mafia with the usual suspects driving a bus over him. Or rather that would hold unless there was a huge benefit to be gained from him dying. Either a mafia bomb type role (seems unlikely due to plague mechanics) or his death pushes another mafia member into a trusted position vis a vis the town where he can ask for roleclaims.

As for this Young/DrH/Pandain/Infinite circle of morons situation going on, there's a few things which just don't really add up; DrH campaigned on being able to 100% confirm himself and clearly lied about it. LAL should apply to him to, right?

Wrong.

DrH can still confirm himself, but he needs to die for it to happen. I'm not sure if DrH is fumbling for time as his ability gathers information which he'll confirm as valid with a self-kill, but it seems rather odd that young would try to focus attention onto Aeres and cite LAL when LAL can be applied to DrH too. This leads me to believe that DrH/Young are in a circle together, and DrH is feeding him information, which he'll, again, confirm by death.
Claims that DoctorH should die so that we can get info on what alignment other people are

If it wasn't for that, based on the aeres situation, I'd suggest killing DrH immediately in order to find out what allegiance Aeres has. Aeres is either innocent or sacking himself to benefit another mafia member; there was no benefit to fakeclaiming BG of all roles. This is based on the fact that DrH stands to benefit the most from the diverted attention and post-lynch bragging rights if Aeres flips red.

There's some kind of intense attention-fu going on here to keep us discussing a certain set of facts, which leads me to believe that someone fucked up pretty hard and outed themselves earlier and we're actively being pushed away from that. Given that I kinda just read pages 10,20,30, etc until 80-92, I'm not entirely certain what's being thrown under the rug, but when I get more time and less women offering themselves to me, I'll be sure go over more material in search thereof.
Says a bit of protown stuff by saying that we are being misleaded

On November 02 2010 11:38 L wrote:
No I'm not. I'm saying in the event that we kill either, these are the likely orientations of the other player because a rank 0 new kid isn't going to throw some crazy mindgames at us like whoa.

In fact, I specifically said if I was going to lynch for information, I'd kill DrH, but that the entire Pandain/Young/DrH/Infinity arguesquare will probably clear itself up and give us a good candidate from it anyways.
Denies that he was asking to "confirm" another player by lynching them, but somehow still says that he'd kill DrH. Idk what he's getting around to here.

So like, I did the opposite of what you're trying to say I did. Cool beans bro.



In other news, this feud is taking up a huge chunk of the thread. That's cool. Super cool even. Super cool if we're picking between two targets that are both town. The debate here is placid, with maybe 2 actors at most on a side weighing in. With 8 total vote power, mafia should be snoooooozing through this if one of the two candidates are mafia, because they can easily deploy enough votes to swing themselves to safety. In all likelihood, mafia isn't even heavily invested in this conversation, since there are at most 6 players making substantial contributions to the (now endlessly repeating) argument. Since both sides seem to have halos of associated players, it would be easy enough to swing a certain direction, then cook up why an unfortunate townie was the most ardent pusher for the lynch and get them killed.

So, L, who do you suggest we pick? I dunno lol. We probably have a 1/6 chance hitting aeres or DrH. The game as a whole provides us with closer to 1/4 odds. Given that, we're probably better off completely ignoring this situation and producing alternatives before the day runs out and I get modkilled for eating curry for 30 minutes longer than anticipated. That said, that's a blind analysis. You can make the % chance even better by seeing what your position on players like Node or others is.

In total, this yield me a list looking like this:


2. Hyperbola
3. Bumatlarge
4. Veldril
7. deconduo
8. Coagulation
10. infundibulum
11. Amber[LighT]
12. Kenpachi
13. RebirthOfLegend
14. Nemesis
15. ghrur
16. KtheZ
18. CubEdIn
19. Meapak_Ziphh
21. DCLXVI
22. Divinek
23. Lexpar
28. jcarlsoniv
31. L
32. NB
33. Glasse
34 Misder
38. kitaman27
39. LunarDestiny

So basically I've removed the players that are too heavily engaged in the stupidity to be cruise control mafia + Node because I think he's legit. There's probably a mafia member up in that group, but they're all hopped up on crazy pills at the moment, so we're not going to get very far with our tea leaf divination technique just yet.

Out of the remaining group, mafia are hiding at the feigned activity level. They'll jump on players who make mistakes, or just lightly brush people with the threat of the shitlist, but otherwise just reformulate other people's posts for giggles. And shits. I haven't read all hundred pages. Closer to 40, so I can't accurately say what happened during day 1. It seems, however, that there was a standard mayoral election, so one of the candidates who's remaining on this list might be a good person to start analysis on. Additionally, anyone who played heavily day 1, but then dropped off is less likely to be mafia, because townies' give-a-shit meter is very low normally (this, however, might be wrong this game because we're all blue and that's awesome), consistently low activity players who haven't asked for replacement or made overt apologies are more likely to be mafia given that LSB is actively kicking people outta his game if they say they're busy, and mafia players are never inactive.
What is this? He tries to look protown by producing a list of 20 people that should be looked at, but doesn't go into specific at who specifically should be looked at

Cept that Caller kid. He's pretty brave, though.

On November 03 2010 02:21 L wrote:

Why would I think that you picked doctor?

I'm saying that the role you say you have does not make sense. At all. So there's probably more to it that you haven't revealed.

On November 04 2010 09:07 L wrote:
Went through coag's posts.

There's 2 main overt things he does:

1) He pushes pandain for mayor the entire time
2) He shits on youngmiini

Pandain's pretty much our best target for tomorrow.

Some less overt stances:

1)Seems undecided on DocH. Starts by being rather deferential, then moves to a "not so sure about you" position.
2)His posts are TINY. He feigns activity without producing very much.

Given my prior assessment it seems like I was right. Most mafia are just trying to keep under the radar.

On November 04 2010 09:50 L wrote:

I'll look at his post history then. Gimme a few min.

On November 05 2010 09:32 Nemesis wrote:

And yes if you actually want to know I am actually quite busy right now irl. I have midterms last week and I have one last midterm this wednesday(I'll probably go inactive around tuesday). I check tl mafia everytime I take a break from studying 'hence my one liner posts.' I didn't mention this, because I know that you are just going to use this against me saying "you're just making up excuses now." But I guess it doesn't matter eitherway as you still try to paint me as red either way.

This is the last time I'm replying to you as to not shit up this thread like what happened during the Pandain/Doctor H/Infinitestory circle. I feel like you will just be making the same points over and over again. You have made your point. I have made my point, there's nothing left that I have to argue about.

On November 07 2010 13:38 L wrote:

See you might have a problem attributing strong analysis to me when you forget that the case you've mentioned isn't attributed to me. So far I've actually produced the most comprehensive analysis of any person in the game, which was vetted by a bunch of people who died and flipped blue.
Most comprehensive analysis? What? What have you done so far? So far you've pushed for 3 now confirmed blues to be lynched based on crappy reasoning.
CubedIn - "definitely lying about his role"
Pandain - "Him and coag are definitely working together"
Nemesis - "Plenty of one liners. Definitely mafia"


I've operated on very limited assumptions this game.

The first of which is that during the Aeres/Youngmiini melee, most of the involved parties were blue and that mafia were staying out of the problem. So far, everyone who's died from that group has flipped blue.
Lol, and how does that help anyone? You didn't try and find another target that day but only said that.

Second is that because of that, mafia would have been very, very quiet day 2. Go look at the people who flipped mafia since then: Divinek, Coag and Decuowhatever. All said the bare minimum, or in the case of Divinek, got modkilled for being flat out afk.

So where does that leave us?

DrH asked the thread to look up Nemesis. I did. He fit straight up into the middle of the qualities that all of the previous mafia members had, and what's more:

He admits to them. He admits to lightly pushing people. He admits to throwing around one liners. He flat out admits he's just watching the game. His response to this? Throw shit on me now that DrH, who supported the view that he was likely a good kill today, is dead.

Seems pretty open and shut on this one. The only question is whether or not we can find one of his scumbuddies to hang with him.
And now he throws suspicion at another person when he's been called out