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Basically the math goes like this:
Right now we're at 6 town, 2 3rd party, 3 mafia. If we lynch 1t/1m we end up with:
5 town, 2 third party, 2 mafia going into the night. Mafia have 1+1 hits and lunar has 1, which makes this:
2 town 2 third party, 2 mafia going into the next day. Town loses. By a lot. Including the secret vote, its 5 votes vs 2 town votes. Third party can't lynch mafia here either because the last remaining mafia player will hit them and make them lose.
I might die or get a kp if I claim tonight, so we're +1/-1. Our only hope if we split 1/1 on the lynch is that I shoot a mafia during the day so that third party doesn't need to worry about being killed. But mafia's decided to toss me under a wagon because I'm the only person bothering to not lose the game and they can't kill me during the night.
So yeah. Those are our only options if we want to win.
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On November 10 2010 15:01 L wrote: Like Coag?
No, Coag gave up and started calling pandain mafia and spammed the thread until he died. Kenpachi put forth his argument, saw that no one wanted to even bother considering that Pandain was lying and stopped bothering.
If you want 'proof' that someone's mafia, you aren't going to get it outside of someone being a DT, checking someone, then dying. Either that, or having a role and using it. Outside of that, there's really very little 'proof' someone can muster.
Want a demonstration?
1) Pandain claims he checks alignments, he can't prove it. 2) Pandain claims Nemesis is blue, he can't prove it. 3) Pandain claims Kenpachi is red, he can't prove it.
So what standard of information do you want to use here? Town can decide. Not you. You win the game if mafia Ace this lynch. Sorry for doubting you, but I typically don't trust players who have a win right in front of them who say they won't take it.
On the plus side, Node finally arrived and told us who's dying, so I can go ahead and reveal that I'm the Junkie. I've got 2 night lives and once per game I get to pm the mods and tell them I have murrayitis. If i'm wrong, I die. If i'm right, they give me drugs to cure the disease. Being a terrible drug addict, they don't actually work on me, but they give me a night hit.
I've breadcrumbed this pretty much once per day, by throwing up huge mrus posts while no one else was talking about it.
Now that Ace's role flipped as mrus spreader and given that he hates my face, I'm pretty sure I have mrus. So tonight I'll either die, or I'll get to hit someone. I fully expect both third party members to push me today because Lunar'll probably be afraid of my hit. Nemesis/Pandain is probably a given as well. To everyone else, specially you if you're not lying, Kenpachi, please read carefully. How does your role give you more information about murrayitis than other roles? In fact, how do you even know more than plague doctors. CubedIn who was the only doctor who roleclaimed, he never even once mentioned that mafia had a targeted spreader, which means the only one that knew that is mafia.
On November 11 2010 01:00 L wrote: Basically the math goes like this:
Right now we're at 6 town, 2 3rd party, 3 mafia. If we lynch 1t/1m we end up with:
5 town, 2 third party, 2 mafia going into the night. Mafia have 1+1 hits and lunar has 1, which makes this:
2 town 2 third party, 2 mafia going into the next day. Town loses. By a lot. Including the secret vote, its 5 votes vs 2 town votes. Third party can't lynch mafia here either because the last remaining mafia player will hit them and make them lose.
I might die or get a kp if I claim tonight, so we're +1/-1. Our only hope if we split 1/1 on the lynch is that I shoot a mafia during the day so that third party doesn't need to worry about being killed. But mafia's decided to toss me under a wagon because I'm the only person bothering to not lose the game and they can't kill me during the night.
So yeah. Those are our only options if we want to win. What is to stop mafia from killing thid party anyways? And what do you mean third party can't lynch mafia. Unless mafia tells them who they are, then they can't avoid lynching mafia anyways. And if mafia tells them who they are, what's to stop them from lynching them?
So no, your hypothetical scenario of third party helping mafia is far off.
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Err, 'during the this day cycle's night'. Not during the day.
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Happy page 200 ppl. L who do you suggest we lynch if you don't wanna lynch kenpachi?
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How does your role give you more information about murrayitis than other roles? In fact, how do you even know more than plague doctors. CubedIn who was the only doctor who roleclaimed, he never even once mentioned that mafia had a targeted spreader, which means the only one that knew that is mafia. It doesn't, but given that my role hinges upon knowing I have and baiting mrus infection, I've been thinking about it for pretty much the entire game, far moreso than anyone else. Search the thread for mrus and look at the large analysis posts about it. They're all from me.
From the opening lines of the game, mrus is stated to spread by the mafia. Additionally, from the rate of mrus spread, we know that it wasn't a simple set amount of infections per day, accounting for most of the mrus infections but rather that it probably spread from infected people to others that they visited. So no, if you bothered thinking about how the mrus and immunity numbers were the way they were, you'd find it to be a pretty reasonable assumption that mafia can spread the disease.
And you know, they said so here:
Mayor Artanis of Insania was quickly overwhelmed by the effects of Murrayitis. It quickly became clear that the Mafia had somehow harnessed the power of Murrayitis and planned to use it against the town.
I get the impression that you're being deliberately dense here. Why?
What is to stop mafia from killing thid party anyways? And what do you mean third party can't lynch mafia. Unless mafia tells them who they are, then they can't avoid lynching mafia anyways. And if mafia tells them who they are, what's to stop them from lynching them?
So no, your hypothetical scenario of third party helping mafia is far off. Mafia have a limited number of hits, and if they're going to win, they'd rather ally with the third party and win immediately than hit the third party during the night. Even if the third party takes a shot at the mafia tonight, mafia can still retaliate tomorrow. As for the third party knowing who's mafia or not; you might be right that they don't know yet, but its a fairly simple matter to have a mafia member claim tonight to give the third party a specific target to hit, then enjoy the sweet lucre of victory afterwards.
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On November 11 2010 01:25 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Happy page 200 ppl. L who do you suggest we lynch if you don't wanna lynch kenpachi? Well, the only safe option that we have unless we luck out and hit 2 mafia is to lynch glasse/lunar. There's no other option that doesn't end in an immediate town loss, unless we luck out and hit 2 reds, which we probably won't. mafia + 3rd party control like 45% of the votes, and with the secret vote, they can pile 6 votes on a single target between themselves.
3rd party doesn't even need to know who mafia are, they just need to follow the secret vote and they'll win.
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On November 11 2010 01:25 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Happy page 200 ppl. L who do you suggest we lynch if you don't wanna lynch kenpachi? Dun Dun Dun, three of the four unconfirmed people banding together with three mafias left. Coincidence? I think not.
I'm off for now, I have a midterm today and somehow I'm wasting my time here.
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On November 11 2010 01:55 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 01:25 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Happy page 200 ppl. L who do you suggest we lynch if you don't wanna lynch kenpachi? Dun Dun Dun, three of the four unconfirmed people banding together with three mafias left. Coincidence? I think not. I'm off for now, I have a midterm today and somehow I'm wasting my time here. How am I banding together with them? I still have my vote on Kenpachi and I intend to keep it that way. The reason I asked what L thought is because he's been the most vocal against pretty much anything everyone has said in the past half a day or so. I was wondering if he was just stonewalling or if he had legitimate reasons. He hasn't convinced me that LD and Glasse are bad and if anything he sounds like someone desperately trying to start a bandwagon.
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I guess if mathematical proof that they're going to win the game by raping the town 2 ways from sunday if they aren't killed isn't enough to prove that someone's 'bad'.
No wonder this town is so ass-backwards.
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Glasse was just temp banned for 2 days by Jibba.
That account was created on 2010-07-16 11:51:29 and had 651 posts.
Reason: On November 07 2010 11:27 Jibba wrote: CoffeeJelly said it, but this is the official warning. Keep the PC vs. console talk out of here unless it's specifically about Black Ops.
You've been warned.
Sorry for posting as a non-player. I think this information is important to the game.
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On November 11 2010 03:00 aidnai wrote:Show nested quote +Glasse was just temp banned for 2 days by Jibba.
That account was created on 2010-07-16 11:51:29 and had 651 posts.
Reason: On November 07 2010 11:27 Jibba wrote: CoffeeJelly said it, but this is the official warning. Keep the PC vs. console talk out of here unless it's specifically about Black Ops.
You've been warned.
Sorry for posting as a non-player. I think this information is important to the game. Lmao, whats up with everyone getting banned while playing games I'm in now?
Hmm I guess he already posted enough, should be fine
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Yep, expected, he's wagoning without even being here.
If you're town and don't want to lose, read these last few pages please.
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L... time to confirm mafia's winning condition. I don't want to argue against you about Mafia's winning condition so I pmed BOTH mod. I can't post the exact reply but i'll paraphase and the mod can confirm it.
Artanis say that Mafia need to kill all town players to win. Also said that they don't need to kill third party.
LSB say that The mafia wins if their number is more than the town players.
The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win.
He never defined "secete alliance." Can you clarify LSB?
In conclusion, there is no mentioning about the "secret vote" even though I ask them specifically about it. Also, our votes as third party does not count toward mafia's votes.
So the math 3 mafia+1 secret vote+2 third party is BS.
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On November 11 2010 04:25 LunarDestiny wrote: L... time to confirm mafia's winning condition. I don't want to argue against you about Mafia's winning condition so I pmed BOTH mod. I can't post the exact reply but i'll paraphase and the mod can confirm it.
Artanis say that Mafia need to kill all town players to win. Also said that they don't need to kill third party.
LSB say that The mafia wins if their number is more than the town players.
The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win.
He never defined "secete alliance." Can you clarify LSB?
In conclusion, there is no mentioning about the "secret vote" even though I ask them specifically about it. Also, our votes as third party does not count toward mafia's votes.
So the math 3 mafia+1 secret vote+2 third party is BS. Uh, if the mafia control the day lynch, they kill a townie, then go back to night where they and you can kill s'more townies until they're numerically superior to the town. Once mafia control our day lynch, we lose. Period.
Dear town: Lunar is arguing that its okay for the mafia to have enough votes to win control our lynch.
I mean, shit, that's fucked right up.
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On November 11 2010 04:29 L wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 04:25 LunarDestiny wrote: L... time to confirm mafia's winning condition. I don't want to argue against you about Mafia's winning condition so I pmed BOTH mod. I can't post the exact reply but i'll paraphase and the mod can confirm it.
Artanis say that Mafia need to kill all town players to win. Also said that they don't need to kill third party.
LSB say that The mafia wins if their number is more than the town players.
The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win.
He never defined "secete alliance." Can you clarify LSB?
In conclusion, there is no mentioning about the "secret vote" even though I ask them specifically about it. Also, our votes as third party does not count toward mafia's votes.
So the math 3 mafia+1 secret vote+2 third party is BS. Uh, if the mafia control the day lynch, they kill a townie, then go back to night where they and you can kill s'more townies until they're numerically superior to the town. Once mafia control our day lynch, we lose. Period. Dear town: Lunar is arguing that its okay for the mafia to have enough votes to win control our lynch.I mean, shit, that's fucked right up. I am arguing that it is almost impossible for Third Party to win with the mafia. That gives me no incentive to work with them. Winning with town is much easier since we have to get the remaining 3 mafia.
L, is there anyone else that agree with you that Kenpachi is not mafia?
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On November 11 2010 04:31 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 04:29 L wrote:On November 11 2010 04:25 LunarDestiny wrote: L... time to confirm mafia's winning condition. I don't want to argue against you about Mafia's winning condition so I pmed BOTH mod. I can't post the exact reply but i'll paraphase and the mod can confirm it.
Artanis say that Mafia need to kill all town players to win. Also said that they don't need to kill third party.
LSB say that The mafia wins if their number is more than the town players.
The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win.
He never defined "secete alliance." Can you clarify LSB?
In conclusion, there is no mentioning about the "secret vote" even though I ask them specifically about it. Also, our votes as third party does not count toward mafia's votes.
So the math 3 mafia+1 secret vote+2 third party is BS. Uh, if the mafia control the day lynch, they kill a townie, then go back to night where they and you can kill s'more townies until they're numerically superior to the town. Once mafia control our day lynch, we lose. Period. Dear town: Lunar is arguing that its okay for the mafia to have enough votes to win control our lynch.I mean, shit, that's fucked right up. I am arguing that it is almost impossible for Third Party to win with the mafia. That gives me no incentive to work with them. Winning with town is much easier since we have to get the remaining 3 mafia. L, is there anyone else that agree with you that Kenpachi is not mafia? Uh, you're arguing that its almost impossible for the third party to win with mafia with this example?
The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win.
THATS TOMORROW.
Jesus Christ, you just quoted a mod giving you the exact numbers we'll have tomorrow if you and the mafia push this lynch through, and you're saying its impossible? This is unreal.
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On November 11 2010 04:35 L wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 04:31 LunarDestiny wrote:On November 11 2010 04:29 L wrote:On November 11 2010 04:25 LunarDestiny wrote: L... time to confirm mafia's winning condition. I don't want to argue against you about Mafia's winning condition so I pmed BOTH mod. I can't post the exact reply but i'll paraphase and the mod can confirm it.
Artanis say that Mafia need to kill all town players to win. Also said that they don't need to kill third party.
LSB say that The mafia wins if their number is more than the town players.
The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win.
He never defined "secete alliance." Can you clarify LSB?
In conclusion, there is no mentioning about the "secret vote" even though I ask them specifically about it. Also, our votes as third party does not count toward mafia's votes.
So the math 3 mafia+1 secret vote+2 third party is BS. Uh, if the mafia control the day lynch, they kill a townie, then go back to night where they and you can kill s'more townies until they're numerically superior to the town. Once mafia control our day lynch, we lose. Period. Dear town: Lunar is arguing that its okay for the mafia to have enough votes to win control our lynch.I mean, shit, that's fucked right up. I am arguing that it is almost impossible for Third Party to win with the mafia. That gives me no incentive to work with them. Winning with town is much easier since we have to get the remaining 3 mafia. L, is there anyone else that agree with you that Kenpachi is not mafia? Uh, you're arguing that its almost impossible for the third party to win with mafia with this example? Show nested quote +The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win. THATS TOMORROW. Jesus Christ, you just quoted a mod giving you the exact numbers we'll have tomorrow if you and the mafia push this lynch through, and you're saying its impossible? This is unreal. So me the math please?
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L, is there anyone else that agree with you that Kenpachi is not mafia? I sure as hell hope so, but even if Kenpachi is mafia, I'm not, and if we miss either of our lynches we lose and you win, so its pretty irrelevant at this point.
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Also why are you suggest that Town lynch both Glasse and I
Right now there are 6 town 3 mafia 2 third party
Lynch both third party on day5: 6 town 3 mafia
mafia 2 night kill on night 5: 4town 3mafia
Town lynch someone on day 6 A)4town, 2mafia or B)3town, 2mafia
Night 6: A)mafia 2 night kill on night 6 2town, 2 mafia
B)mafia 2 night kill on night 6 1town 2 mafia
I like your plan that you lynch both third party...
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