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So me the math please? First post on the page.
If we miss 1 lynch, we're at 5 townies, 2 maf, 2 of you guys. Mafia get a hit and the node +1 thing. you get a hit as well for a total of +3kp You end the game right there at 2/2/2, because town cannot grab the next day's lynch. You can't even try to stop mafia and swing the game in town's favor either, because mafia can hit you during the next night and make you lose.
If we miss both lynches, we're at 4 townies, 3 mafia, 2 of you guys. Add those 3 kp together using mafia's secret vote to direct your hit and we're at 1,3,2, you win again with mafia.
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That is some sick math, I never thought about that.
Why don't you just say you are the mafia and want the third party to buy your plan... Oh wait, then the town will just lynch you.
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On November 11 2010 04:42 LunarDestiny wrote:
Also why are you suggest that Town lynch both Glasse and I
Right now there are
6 town
3 mafia
2 third party
Lynch both third party on day5:
6 town
3 mafia
mafia 2 night kill on night 5:
4town
3mafia
Town lynch someone on day 6
A)4town, 2mafia
or
B)3town, 2mafia
Night 6:
A)mafia 2 night kill on night 6
2town, 2 mafia
B)mafia 2 night kill on night 6
1town 2 mafia
I like your plan that you lynch both third party...
I have a kp tonight and you've forgotten mrus, which will probably pop for 2 town 1 mafia and give us the ability to win on day 6.
In the other scenarios, the ones wherein you win tonight, that doesn't happen. You just have a numerical advantage and the game ends.
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On November 11 2010 04:49 LunarDestiny wrote:
That is some sick math, I never thought about that.
Why don't you just say you are the mafia and want the third party to buy your plan... Oh wait, then the town will just lynch you.
Well, mostly because I'm not mafia, and if we make a single mistake on the lynch, which they would if we lynch me, we lose.
So no, I'll stick to the only avenue which gives us the potential to win.
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I'll think I let people digest what is being said.
What I got out of it are:
Fact: So me the Car Facts?
Claim:
-You roleclaim someone with 2 night lives. Any point in the game you point the mod. If you don't have M-Rus, you die. Got M-Rus, you get a night kill.
-Lynch both third party. At night, assuming what you said about your role is true (-.-), 3town die or
2 town 1mafia die.
Remaining 3 town 3 mafia or 4town 2 mafia. Then M-RUS have the potential to kill some people. Then town work with 1 lynch and mafia work with 2 nightkill.
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You aren't town, and your numbers are off.
Go do your math again. You and Glasse aren't counted in the 6 remaining blues, because hey, look at that, you aren't blue. There are 11 people alive. 6 town. 3 mafia, and you two. If we lynch you two tonight, we end with 6 town/3 mafia. If they hit 2 of us and I hit one of them, we end up with 4/2.
4/2 means mrus pops, we probably go down to 2/1. Lylo for the game.
The alternative is that we lose straight up tonight.
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On November 11 2010 05:29 L wrote:
You aren't town, and your numbers are off.
Go do your math again. You and Glasse aren't counted in the 6 remaining blues, because hey, look at that, you aren't blue. There are 11 people alive. 6 town. 3 mafia, and you two. If we lynch you two tonight, we end with 6 town/3 mafia. If they hit 2 of us and I hit one of them, we end up with 4/2.
4/2 means mrus pops, we probably go down to 2/1. Lylo for the game.
The alternative is that we lose straight up tonight.
My numbers aren't off...
We now have 6 town, 3mafia, 2 third.
You propose that town lynch the 2 third->6town 3mafia.
At night 2 mafia night kill, you claim to have a KP will use it (ASSUMING YOU ARE NOT LYING AND ASSUMING YOU GOT M-RUS)->3 town dead or 2 mafia 1 town dead.
Remaining 3 town 3 mafia OR 4town 2 mafia.
My math is GOOD? ASSUMING that someone is not lying AND ASSUMING that someone got M-RUS AND ASSUMING that someone does a successful hit is also GOOD too.
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the thing is we aren't guaranteed to lynch 2 mafia
we can be guaranteed to lynch 2 3rd party
in terms of expected value for the town, lynching 3rd party might be the way to go
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Regarding win condition: Mafia need to kill all non-mafia non-third party members to win. LSB is wrong in this. I decided on this ruling because a number of things could still jeopardize mafia victory even if they gain a numerical advantage in town, therefore they wouldn't be assured victory.
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On November 11 2010 06:44 LunarDestiny wrote:
Thanks for the help.
However that still means you could ally with them....
I'll have to analyze this...
after some sc2 first 
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oh come on, how many hoops does this circus act have?
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On November 11 2010 06:53 Ace wrote:
oh come on, how many hoops does this circus act have?
L failed to get me dead. Woo.
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On November 11 2010 06:52 Pandain wrote:However that still means you could ally with them.... I'll have to analyze this... after some sc2 first
If town believe in L, I will shut up.
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I don't see how the town can win unless mrus rapes the mafia team if mafia gains control of the lynch tomorrow. Its pretty irrelevant if the requirement is everyone dead instead of numerical superiority.
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4-5 hours? Not sure if CET is still being used or if we're on CST.
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It is now Day 5! You have 48 hours to vote. Remember that a double lynch is active, so you have to vote twice. Should everyone have voted earlier, I will close the votes earlier.
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Yeah, I'm not too sure of that, because this portion of the OP post was changed from a few days ago:
This game will follow a strict 48/24 hour day/night cycle. During the day, voting will be open in a separate thread, and some roles with secret day actions will need to PM me their day actions. During the night, all roles with night actions will need to PM those to me. The official time that cycles will begin/end at is MIDNIGHT CET.
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Assuming not all people have voted before then, voting ends in slightly more than 22 hours.
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EPT
