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On November 11 2010 08:52 L wrote:
I don't see how the town can win unless mrus rapes the mafia team if mafia gains control of the lynch tomorrow. Its pretty irrelevant if the requirement is everyone dead instead of numerical superiority.
so what do you think the best course of action is then? lynch the 3rd party?
the problem is there are no more double lynches afterwards
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On November 11 2010 09:43 Infundibulum wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 08:52 L wrote:
I don't see how the town can win unless mrus rapes the mafia team if mafia gains control of the lynch tomorrow. Its pretty irrelevant if the requirement is everyone dead instead of numerical superiority. so what do you think the best course of action is then? lynch the 3rd party? the problem is there are no more double lynches afterwards
The only real course of action is to lynch the third party. We might be able to get away with just lynching lunar and not glasse, but given that I think pandain is scum and Kenpachi is probably being set up, we'd trade 1/1 and lose the game.
I honestly don't see another way out of today that doesn't involve relying on the incompetence of every third party and mafia member to not vote for what amounts to an instant win.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Wow 200 pages @_______@
How did the game get this long what have you all done
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Hahahaha, I can't believe that there are actually people who are buying your plan L. Seriously, are mafia really that desperate that they don't even know how to do math now?
Here is your plan as already outlined by LunarDestiny:
Right now there are
6 town
3 mafia
2 third party
Lynch both third party on day5:
6 town
3 mafia
mafia 2 night kill on night 5:
4town
3mafia +secretz mafia vote
MAFIA WINS
Town lynch someone on day 6
A)2town
2 third party
3mafia
(mafia wins)
or
B)3town
2 third party
2 mafia + secretz mafia vote
LYLO - town can still win if third party votes for mafia
or
C)4 town
2 third party
1 mafia + secretz mafia vote
Yes L's Plan leads to mafia winning. That is so protown of you right? You have been hanging around with kira too much.
Also consider that Pandain has been pretty much confirmed blue. If we follow the "confirmed blue" list we have a 2/3 chance of killing 2 mafias, and 1/3 chance of killing just 1 mafia.
Unless you actually think that RoL and L is correct about Pandain being Godfather which is ridiculous as why the hell would RoL put suspicion on the real Godfather when he has just been confirmed blue? Godfather has been given a free pass via being scanned and mafia would bus him?
So L, what's your next attempt at escaping the guillotine?
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Hmm.... L's partly right....
Right now:
6 town, 3 mafia, two 3rd party.
With secret mafia vote, mafia could've theoretically won already if I hadn't found mafia already. But point is, let's see if we mislynch for the second and hit a town:
Night comes, mafia allies with third party. So then 3 deaths will happen (node, 3rd party kp + mafia kp)
All most likely town(assuming node is town, which I think is safe to say.)
So then it will be 3 town, 2 mafia, and two third party.
They win.
Having third party live is too dangerous. Even though I originally believed it would be in our best intentions, I think taking out the KP person in the third party will solve that, in addition to the fact it's one less vote for mafia.
Right now I'm proposing we lynch Kenpachi and LunarDestiny.
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Yes L's Plan leads to mafia winning Wrong. The 'secret mafia vote' doesn't end the game on that day if townies act faster than mafia and get their votes in. Additionally, either I'll die during the night, and mrus will pop, or I'll get a hit and mrus will pop, so you're straight up wrong there.
Even in your alternate scenario, regardless of whatever scenario unfolds, the third party can win if they simply vote with the secret mafia vote in every scenario. They cannot lose and they always carry mafia to victory.
In the best case scenario, 4v2v1+1 votes, which simply won't happen if you lynch me because I'm not mafia, you have a 20% chance for town to get their hit right, and a 25% chance for the third party to hit the mafia. If they fail? Lunar dies.Third party loses. If they vote with the secret vote? 100% victory. Mafia shreds town in a day or two.
Its also impossible because third party and mafia have 2+3+1 votes combined, which is the same number as the town has. If we're going to vote a single target improperly, they control one of our lynches unless every townie bands together.
Also consider that Pandain has been pretty much confirmed blue. If we follow the "confirmed blue" list we have a 2/3 chance of killing 2 mafias, and 1/3 chance of killing just 1 mafia. You aren't ever 'pretty much' confirmed anything. Either you're confirmed or you aren't. There are 3 mafia in play and 1 of them is likely godfather. And no, you don't have that chance of killing mafia, because mafia have control of one of our lynch votes today by raw numbers, and will take the second if we have a single dissenting townie who's not on board.
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On November 11 2010 11:34 Pandain wrote:
Hmm.... L's partly right....
Right now:
6 town, 3 mafia, two 3rd party.
With secret mafia vote, mafia could've theoretically won already if I hadn't found mafia already. But point is, let's see if we mislynch for the second and hit a town:
Night comes, mafia allies with third party. So then 3 deaths will happen (node, 3rd party kp + mafia kp)
All most likely town(assuming node is town, which I think is safe to say.)
So then it will be 3 town, 2 mafia, and two third party.
They win.
Having third party live is too dangerous. Even though I originally believed it would be in our best intentions, I think taking out the KP person in the third party will solve that, in addition to the fact it's one less vote for mafia.
Right now I'm proposing we lynch Kenpachi and LunarDestiny.
If Kenpachi is blue and you aren't, the game ends here. CLEVER PLOY EL PADRINO.
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On November 11 2010 11:39 L wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 11:34 Pandain wrote:
Hmm.... L's partly right....
Right now:
6 town, 3 mafia, two 3rd party.
With secret mafia vote, mafia could've theoretically won already if I hadn't found mafia already. But point is, let's see if we mislynch for the second and hit a town:
Night comes, mafia allies with third party. So then 3 deaths will happen (node, 3rd party kp + mafia kp)
All most likely town(assuming node is town, which I think is safe to say.)
So then it will be 3 town, 2 mafia, and two third party.
They win.
Having third party live is too dangerous. Even though I originally believed it would be in our best intentions, I think taking out the KP person in the third party will solve that, in addition to the fact it's one less vote for mafia.
Right now I'm proposing we lynch Kenpachi and LunarDestiny. If Kenpachi is blue and you aren't, the game ends here. CLEVER PLOY EL PADRINO.
Do I really need to point out all the reasons that show I'm blue?
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Because godfather rolechecks return blue?
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Yes you are definitely right, we give up. Pandain is definitely godfather and you are definitely blue even though you have no argument.
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Also, where the hell is everyone? It just feels too quiet in here, it's weird. :X
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On November 11 2010 11:57 Nemesis wrote:
Also, where the hell is everyone? It just feels too quiet in here, it's weird. :X
Pandain- Speaking
Infundibulum- Being Quiet
Kenpachi- Disillusioned
Nemesis- Speaking
Meapak_Ziphh- Dunno
Node- Being inactive as usual
youngminii- Lost internet
L- Speaking
NB- Being inactive as usual
Glasse- Banned
LunarDestiny-Speaking
That covers about everyone. Must be strange getting a break from all the spam that was spewing forth.
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On November 11 2010 11:57 Nemesis wrote:
Also, where the hell is everyone? It just feels too quiet in here, it's weird. :X
L is not really open for debate.
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Well, sure I am. Just have a real point to make instead of "I'm going to ignore the evidence in front of me and say false shit repeatedly".
Hiding just makes our job nearly impossible come tomorrow when we're probably going to be in another Lylo situation.
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On November 11 2010 06:41 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Regarding win condition: Mafia need to kill all non-mafia non-third party members to win. LSB is wrong in this. I decided on this ruling because a number of things could still jeopardize mafia victory even if they gain a numerical advantage in town, therefore they wouldn't be assured victory.
L, you never respond to this new information. Can you tell me how the third party can benefit if they were to side with the mafia? You are a very good thinker, so I thought you can do the thinking for me.
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You also sound like that I get pm from mafia and know who to hit and who not to hit. Well, unless they are talking in secret codes in the thread, I don't really know who they are and what they are doing.
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On November 11 2010 12:59 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 06:41 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Regarding win condition: Mafia need to kill all non-mafia non-third party members to win. LSB is wrong in this. I decided on this ruling because a number of things could still jeopardize mafia victory even if they gain a numerical advantage in town, therefore they wouldn't be assured victory. L, you never respond to this new information. Can you tell me how the third party can benefit if they were to side with the mafia? You are a very good thinker, so I thought you can do the thinking for me.
Uh, the moment mafia gains control of the lynch, they win. If it takes a few days longer for them to shred through everyone, so be it. The only ways to stop that is through mrus popping (which is unreliable) or me shooting them which might involve me dying anyways.
Besides my hit, there might be another blue with something that could save us, but they can't claim without getting hit or lynched, given that mafia can brute force a lynch today.
As for you not knowing who to vote: the secret mafia vote is pretty cool, bro. Lets you vote train on someone and not be afraid of anything.
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On November 11 2010 13:29 L wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2010 12:59 LunarDestiny wrote:On November 11 2010 06:41 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Regarding win condition: Mafia need to kill all non-mafia non-third party members to win. LSB is wrong in this. I decided on this ruling because a number of things could still jeopardize mafia victory even if they gain a numerical advantage in town, therefore they wouldn't be assured victory. L, you never respond to this new information. Can you tell me how the third party can benefit if they were to side with the mafia? You are a very good thinker, so I thought you can do the thinking for me. Uh, the moment mafia gains control of the lynch, they win. If it takes a few days longer for them to shred through everyone, so be it. The only ways to stop that is through mrus popping (which is unreliable) or me shooting them which might involve me dying anyways. Besides my hit, there might be another blue with something that could save us, but they can't claim without getting hit or lynched, given that mafia can brute force a lynch today. As for you not knowing who to vote: the secret mafia vote is pretty cool, bro. Lets you vote train on someone and not be afraid of anything.
Dude, I got the M-Rus, If the mafia can't end the game fast, why should I side with them?
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Because mafia are less likely to have mrus given that they were the spreaders, so killing them will increase the likelihood of you setting off the mrus bomb on yourself, whereas if you cooperate with them, they can pick targets that they know they had spread mrus to?
You just gave us another reason to doubt that you can work with town and win the game. Well done.
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EPT
