EPTTL Mafia XXXI
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Divinek
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On September 20 2010 05:48 drag_ wrote: I see the sign-up list is full, but any chance there might be room for one more? E: Nevermind, think I'll read a few more game before getting involved myself. 19.Crisis_ 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. ....wat? looooooool. i think it may have been the 25/25 remaining thing that confused the poor guy though | ||
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On October 01 2010 15:03 Misder wrote: /in Mafia games suck up soo much time though... oh well. not for you they dont | ||
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On October 02 2010 01:59 kingjames01 wrote: Nice, I think Sunday night will be okay for me. I'm going to be doing a lot of travelling these upcoming two weeks... I'll be flying out to Germany tomorrow, then to Denmark on Monday, back to Germany on Thursday and finally back to Canada on the 13th. Looking through a bunch of previous games it seems like there's a lot of work involved but I'll be as active as possible around my work. Hopefully, I won't get put on the ban list! =) oh dear i hope that's not an inactivity excuse waiting to happen | ||
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On October 04 2010 22:59 NukeTheBunnys wrote: I'm in favor of just voting random the first day. We have very little reason to go on to try and pick some one suspicious, and if anyone is suspicious before day 1 night, then they are most likely attempting to be suspicious(read the Village Idiot). The same holds true to voting an inactive. We would most likely end up killing a townie by voting random, but I don't think we really have a better option. Once people start posting more we can have a more educated, organized, strategy, but for now I believe in chaos chaos is the mafia way. It's far better to try and get something out of people by pressuring them and forcing them to talk than just going 'oh well we RNG'd a hit now no one needs to talk for the rest of the day' | ||
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On October 05 2010 14:05 Crisis_ wrote: How nice of you to vote for me. Glad to know that your vote will be a waste, since: 1. I am participating in active discussion to try to help town and give advice to the DT, I wouldn't be doing this if I were scum. 2. There are better candidates to be lynched, i.e. inactives. you should probably keep in mind the vote is more likely nothing more than a place holder. However your defense is laughable. 1. I can think of alot more reasons that a mafia would want to do this than not, ie look pro town, after all the best way to look pro town is to BE pro town! Empty advice like this can't really harm you as a mafia, unless it was game breaking or something 2. It's great that you say there are people, but who are they?!!? not saying they dont exist just, be stronger! | ||
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On October 05 2010 22:57 NukeTheBunnys wrote: Here is the list of people that have not posted so far, so we can get an idea of who the inactives are 1. JeeJee 2. bumatlarge 3. Bill Murray 10.SINiquity 11.XeliN 12.kane]deth[ 15.infinitestory 16.cSc 20.drag_ 21.CynanMachine I did not count 1 line post with no real content. A bit less then half the people have posted by now with most of the content from a small group of people(~OpZ~,Amber[LighT].Divinek and Misder and some others) If we choose to vote inactive, we currently have quite the pool to choose from oh my god lol. I think besides just sheer probability alone there is more than likely at least one mafia member in there. Yes they are likely to be active on day1, but they are also likely to just stay above the threshold of activity to go unnoticed. When there's that many people inactive there's not much pressure to post more than that 1, 'im here post', and even then they wouldn't have to until some more of these people start posting. SUP cynanmachine, you have the longest name so you stand out to me! | ||
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On October 06 2010 01:47 drag_ wrote: Hi guys, I'm generally going to be posting around this time as it fits my time zone/schedule better I don't really understand the point of voting inactives off? I'm new at this game, but surely that just makes it really easy for the mafia to avoid getting voted off for the first few rounds. Unless they're just really lazy... the idea is to not truly hang someone that has barely posted. Put to pressure someone with the threat of killing them should they not speak up. You are correct we NEVER get a mafia by killing someone that doesn't talk. This is because mafia have their buddies to help them out, and generally mafia players are more interested in the game so they will respond to pressure. Now obviously responding to pressure is a trait of every role in the game. But too many times there is a mafia in the lower what 10% of activity that manages to slip by because NO ONE pressures them, this is what we want to avoid. It is very difficult to find a mafia member if they don't have to talk. And they only have one motivation to talk, not to die. | ||
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##vote CynanMachine SPEAK UP BOY, if he doesnt ill have to look at someone that isnt going to get mod killed | ||
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On October 06 2010 02:14 NukeTheBunnys wrote: CynanMachine is leading in votes, best start talking. Also can you change your vote after submitting it. There is the "You cannot autochange your vote to the losing or winning bandwagon." rule but Im wondering if you can vote to really pressure some one into talking/trying to defend them self then If they do respond to your satisfaction change your vote to someone you think is more likely? that is exactly the idea here actually. It makes someone look pretty bad if someone defends them self adequately and they keep their vote on that person | ||
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On October 06 2010 02:13 CynanMachae wrote: At least you could get my name right  (but I would blame it on that list <<)And whoever said that I haven't posted, I did. It wasn't anytihng much useful but still. I didn't say you can't do anything, but yes, one the first day it's very hard to find much because if red play somewhat semi-decently there isn't enough speculation around to have enough hints that someone is red. But sure if you have any suspisions share them. I'm going to vote for an inactive as well, I don't like the random method, cause it does seems to me that its kinda hard to achieve anything with that. And like DrH said, saying that we are voting for an inactive force them to post, and force them to put stuff around that can be analyzed if they are indeed red. Voting agaisnt random doesn't accomplish anything cause it doesn't force them to do anything, just wait. besides the fact that i think it would be hilarious if 1/3rd of the game got mod killed, i really dont want it to ruin the game  . I have a feeling alot of these sneaky people will squeak in in the last few hours with one post and a vote, ive got my eye on you guys!also im so sorry for fucking up your name, i hate when people do that. But i even looked at your name as i typed out my vote lol, you just have one of those names where people are so used to reading it as something else they will just see it as how they want. Also you are now not going to be modkilled and still my best choice for a lynch. You'll have to convince me someone else is a better candidate than yourself. | ||
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On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote: At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much. We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives. Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/ What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet. you're resorting to random voting with 6 hours left in the day? -_-;;;;;;;; cord worm i dont understand the system you're proposing, should everyone roll a random number? that'd be retarded, should everyone do it and then the person who gets the most similar RNGS be lynched? that's also bad because mafia can manipulate that. Even trying to scum hunt on very little information is alot better than being able to vote WITHOUT having to justify it, this is the way a scum would want to vote. we get NOTHING from today if everyone just RNG's their vote. But if you have to justify what you're doing (all be it most people would be like ' he's inactive lols' ) it gives you something to go off of, something to compare to future instances, some SUBSTANCE. If people are making small shitty posts to justify their votes, and then not removing them when the person is like HEY GUYS im here, and we should do this this and this. Then they look bad. But if they do this with your system you can just go LOL SRY I RNG'D. Or are you gonna re rng everytime someone speaks up? -___- it's a terrible system I know your play from many games south so i wont try to go too insane from one little thing like this but cmon man. | ||
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On October 06 2010 06:26 drag_ wrote: This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post. actually, actively singling out people and trying to beat them into the ground invokes quite a strong defense from the person who is being attacked, which is exactly what we need. Though I don't really like the shove it down your throat approach this early in the game, I see little wrong with taking the spot light to try and get people like you to do nothing but fan flames. The only issue that arises from this type of play is convincing yourself too easily that the person is mafia and then trying to make connections where there aren't really any. More so the idea is to place a FoS on the person and follow up the crusade in following days when more evidence has proven itself useful. Trying to hard is much much better than not trying enough. Because if someone is red and they're putting out alot of content we'll know it. But if someone like you is posting only once they see a chance to put light on someone, it makes it alot harder to analyze their thought process and go through and see their goals as anything other than fanning ala flames. I don't think you're acting poorly yet, but keep an open mind that just taking jabs at people for stuff like this is extremely weak, however it is fine day one as it does, just like scum hunting invoke a response BUT it is worse because while the person you're attacking generates content, you yourself really arent. Oh my god that sentence had wayy too many commas. | ||
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On October 06 2010 08:14 cSc wrote: If you don't have enough information to make an educated vote, is it better to go with the majority, or vote randomly? use your own brain please | ||
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On October 06 2010 10:05 BrownBear wrote: Anyone who says Protact's real name in thread gets a modkill. Just sayin' i think it's a bit ridiculous that some people know. If someone was to smurf i really think either everyone or no one should know | ||
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On October 06 2010 11:19 infinitestory wrote: I stated the exact reason. If village threatens to kill village idiot, mafia's only option to stay in the game is to kill the village idiot at night. I know full well the win condition of the village idiot, and it is the EXACT reason the mafia should feel compelled to carry out the dirty work of removing him. oh, and i meant Bill Murray voted for you :/ I was feeling sad about having to vote on day 1 without evidence, but your reply which is a blatant invective rather than an attempt to cooperate/defend self has caused me to lose sympathy. I apologize if this is unfounded or wrong, but making personal attacks on each other in the beginning is one of the hallmarks of a player who is unhelpful in the long run, from my experience. rofl why would they do that? The mafia knows town loses too so there is no way in hell town is gonna lynch VI deliberately just so both sides lose. That has to be the worst argument I've ever seen | ||
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On October 06 2010 11:59 infinitestory wrote: I want to say that sacks a very valuable DT, but especially to reveal poisoner that's definitely worth it. I'm not so sure about revealing roleblocker, because roleblocker's own ability is far more situational to the reds. @Divinek: The primary reason is that the mafia do not win if town dies. If town loses by VI, mafia also loses by VI. Don't say you didn't consider that. Your counterargument was stated at least twice previously, and better ones have been suggested. the whole point is town is not going to purposely lose, even if it makes mafia lose. Town's goal is to win, mafia's goal is to win. Town would never, ever lynch VI on puprose because they'd literally have to be retarded. So that's a pointless threat. If the VI is ever publically known then they're just a paper weight because every one would know they're trying to die and mafia could kill them whenever it is convenient. | ||
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On October 06 2010 12:04 SiNiquity wrote: 6. Voting is mandatory. You may NOT abstain. 7. If you miss a vote or fail to post during one day cycle, you will be modkilled. Not voting: bumatlarge, kane]deth[, Infundi, Crisis_, Happy.fairytail Not posted nor voted: XeliN, JeeJee Under the current rules we're looking at 7 mod kills. Hope some of those are mafia :\ i find it hard to imagine the host would mod kill 1/3rd of the game. Of course the people that didnt post and vote should die. However with the post but no vote....i wish there was a reasonable way to punish these people without ending the game. Like add them to the ban list and let them continue in this game? lol, i dont know, it's annoying when people can't take 2 minutes out of the day to even throw a random vote on just incase because i know people do have lives. Can we hit them with static instead of a full on lightning bolt | ||
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On October 06 2010 12:58 Crisis_ wrote: Sort of. But I'm really not red, rofl. saying that is like not posting at all. So please don't waste your text | ||
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On October 06 2010 22:06 SouthRawrea wrote: Hey Happy.. the game is still on .. reaad. yeah but he's not in it anymore lol | ||
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On October 07 2010 11:10 LSB wrote: Divinek: Activity from Divinek is always fairly strange, it's just sending up some strange flags for me. Activity based, Divienk is more of the lurker/bandwagoner type. just so we can show that lsb never does his homework http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Divinek&gb=date&p=2 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Divinek&gb=date&p=3 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Divinek&gb=date&p=4 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Divinek&gb=date&p=5 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Divinek&gb=date&p=6 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=Divinek&gb=date&p=7 , it's okay im lazy too | ||
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On October 07 2010 14:53 ~OpZ~ wrote: DO NOT ANSWER HIS QUESTION FOR TOWN/TOWNIE. HE IS ASKING YOU BLUE/GREEN He's trying to get out who is blue/green so mafia can blue snipe. yeah why is bm blatantly trying to fish for roles? I remember when he did something similar asking for claims he was GF also On October 07 2010 14:09 Bill Murray wrote: I already got the VI lynched, and out of our hair. There is no way he put more than one. That would make the game very gay.. stop talking about getting the VI lynched a good thing. In all reason it should have lost us the fucking game. BB was a gracious host in letting us continue because you knew who the smurf was and still pushed his lynch, YOU'RE TERRIBLE, when the only logical conclusion one could come to is that person is anti town TRYING to get lynched ie VI it was terrible play and it's hard for me to take anything you say seriously ps i dont think it's impossible that we could have two VI's in this set up, but i imagine it's quite unlikely. | ||
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On October 07 2010 20:33 XeliN wrote: I skim read, Bill has pretty much made it clear and my post is redundant. I kindof give away my role slightly but Bill is correct in how it is phrased and Bloody appears to be lying when he says "Green citizen (Town) and the followup text.. Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's, but I think this is unlikely. As of now I'm going to agree with voting for Bloody based on this. okay i really shouldn't let this post slip up under the radar. lets pick apart individual parts to really get an idea of how blatant this shit is. I skim read straight up admits to being lazy and this is a good cover should he make any glaring errors in interpreting the situation. Which is FINE as long as he doesn't take some concrete stance from this right, after all he hasn't thoroughly read the thread right? Unless Brownbear used different formating for individual PM's first of all, there are two people that sent out the fucking PMs, ask them if you want they can verify. Secondly trying to pick apart wording from a role pm is HILARIOUS because as with every mafia game the example pm is in the fucking OP As of now I'm going to agree with voting well this certainly seems to hurt with his first mini quote. He admits to barely reading the thread, and seemingly wants to JUMP at any chance to be able to vote at someone. Like first of all someone listening to bm's reasoning without discretion after he got the VI lynched = LOL secondly someone going well I DIDNT READ THE THREAD, then agreeing with someone who clearly is retarded is a terrible lapse in judgement. This is the first solid red read i've been getting off of anyone (besides bm but he doesn't count cause he always comes off as scummy). Xelin is not sticking his neck out, xelin is not forming his own opinions, xelin is throwing a vote on someone via someone elses terrible reasoning. This is a common tactic to go 'oh it's only joking semi place holder' then never move it if no one pressures you about it. Well guess what mother fucker you're getting pressure. | ||
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On October 08 2010 04:21 Bill Murray wrote: criticizing me whenever I won penalty mafia for you? criticizing me for lynching an anti-town player when you are too bad to do so yourself? then you agree with me you're a great player, divinek, when you try to scumhunt do so, or else i'll lump you in with BC and OpZ i thought your play in penalty mafia was great and hilarious lol i dont remember criticizing you for it And yes sorry im too bad to lynch an anti town player who would have LOST US THE GAME, only you knew his identity and i didnt also i dont get how me saying there's a possibility for something and you saying there is no possibility is agreeing but ok | ||
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Spamming that much was a condition that you COULD NOT do because it's easy to get killed doing that. And he goes 'there's no way two VI's could be in the game' as if to relax us from the fact of lynching him and ending the game. Disrupting the town with mindless shit that doesn't make sense and throwing around wild allegations is exactly what was done in penalty mafia, only he wasnt such a sore thumb then. It's like everything he's done in this game up to this point is to get himself lynched. (deliberately pushing the lynch of a known, good player, when he was one of the very few who knew it was him, had any decent person known this they would know someone that decent wouldn't be so deliberately retarded, spamming, throwing around crazy accusations that dont even add up etc. It's like look im mafia 101 lol) If we have a vigi PLEASE shoot this clown i truly believe we can't lynch him. | ||
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On October 08 2010 12:15 SiNiquity wrote: Disclaimer: This post is does not in any way encourage additional posting of PM or PM related information, nor do I wish to further the discussion of the PMs themselves. This post contains full disclosure of BM's method to further discourage any claiming. However, the prior claims are here to stay, for better or for worse. There's nothing that can be done, yet they've altered the meta game and as such cannot be ignored. Alternatively a host could simply come out and confirm that the PM messages were different dependent on host, alleviating us of this meta-game aspect entirely. But if not, then the information's there, and should be taken full advantage of by the townies. Now, in short, for those that don't feel like reading the spam starting from page 29 and going really until about page 35, Bill Murray demanded players to roleclaim, but emphasized players should carefully reread their PMs before claiming. It was actually very clever, as there was an underlying secret that only town players would recognize: town players were not PM'ed the word "town" but rather "townie" as their role. XeliN sums this up nicely: Ironically, Bill, either in a burst of genius or insanity, incessantly insisted the correct answer was "town." And, best of yet, some people fell for it: (Note: BC is especially guilty in this regard, as he kept referring to the town post in the OP as his point of reference). In fact the only player that correctly roleclaimed as far as I can surmise is OpZ: Even now Bill maintains "town" is the correct answer, and his vigilance for this charade is admirable yet simultaneously disturbing on some deeper level. However, props to him for maintaining it for so long (I'd certainly be convinced). Now there is the caveat that there were different wording in the PMs based on the host. As such, take the following conclusions with a grain of salt: Confirmed players from my perspective:
Suspect players from my perspective:
Still need to look at the votes over the past day to see if there's anything worthwhile there. But I'm certainly curious as to what one of the "town" players will flip ~ if town, then there's possibly a host discrepancy. If not, then this only confirms my suspicions. It's the strongest lead we've got and I see no reason not to pursue it. Anyway I'm off to bed to mull this over. you realize anyone that got it 'wrong' besides the fact that two different people sent the pms, there's also the fact that roles exist in this game outside of being red or being green right? This isnt some elaborate plan to get our blues lynched is it -_-, yes i realize that the mafia would fuck that up too but there are more than likely more blue roles in this game than mafia. I'm really a bigger fan of feel play and post analysis than this hibby jibby crap that isn't even accurate half the time. That's just how i play though, if something like this were to actually be reliable then id be all for it though. Xelin really needs to be speaking up more he's scaring me | ||
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Now lets look at this motherfucker kane, I know there’s not much to look at lol On October 06 2010 06:25 kane]deth[ wrote: Due to school, I can really only post around this time. Just making a post to indicate my activeness, will edit or post again later with thoughts after reading the thread. Edit: So I'm not sure what content I must post to be not lynched so I suppose I'll just give my opinion on the RNGing lynching of inactives. I think it'll be a good idea as long as we're not lynching any modkills for obvious reasons. I personally don't contribute much and might be considered inactive, but thats because of my inexperience. >: So I think that at least pressuring people to post more is a good idea. Flat out giving us his excuse that he’s not gonna contribute much and be inactive, ie ANTI town. An argument could be made for town neutrality but that would require content from him. This is not an original idea btw, he’s literally parroting about 3 other people at this point. Guilty conscience? I imagine his mafia buddies yelled at him for that one On October 07 2010 10:26 kane]deth[ wrote: I have no idea what to do once again. The more I try to find suspicious people, the more I think everyone is suspicious. I suppose I'll just keep reading and see if anyone really jumps out at me ._. Time and time I have seen new mafia players try this card out. They are confused, they don’t know what to do, this prevents them from having to put forward any of their own ideas because they know they are quite likely to slip up in ways they haven’t even thought of yet. Newbie town players are quite often FEARLESS, they know they got nothing to hide and they get into this game because they are EXCITED to get those mafia! NOT SCARED, why would you be scared if you were town? Then he apologizes for not voting blah blah more guilty conscience fuel On October 08 2010 09:57 kane]deth[ wrote: So I am currently voting for Misder as the proof that others have posted on him seems more reasonable than the accusations against any other player currently. The plan on getting rid of BM seems reasonable as well, but most of the analysis today has been wasted on what to do with him instead of finding Reds. Xelin seemed quick to bandwagon with BM but besides that he doesn't seem to be very suspicious. He could've just been slow on realizing how ridiculous BM's plans and not just bandwagoning for a kill. See that bolded word there? Yeah that’s right, OTHERs so if it goes bad (which it did) then he can go WELL I DIDN’T WANNA DO IT, but you guys presented such good arguments I agreed! Not my fault! It’s deflection at the most basic level Get rid of bm blah everyone already said that. Jumping on xelin too, everyone else did that. I mean this stuff would be fine to do of his own accord, but he’s just repeating everything that’s already been said. This is KEY because he can’t be caught for spewing bullshit because none of it is his own On October 08 2010 09:59 kane]deth[ wrote: Also note that I have no idea how these players have played in previous games, so I can't make references like that, or if something is strange or off about someone's playstyle. More I don’t know bullshit, as in don’t expect me to do things, to be useful. Blah blah im sick of your excuses. On October 08 2010 10:21 kane]deth[ wrote: I suppose proof was a bad word to use there. The accusations that he made against the 'higher tier' players baselessly and his general aggression. Basically the post that Ghrur made. Currently he's just making trouble by trying to lynch players at seemingly random. I'm also lost on one thing; is the only way to find a players posts is to find a post of the player and then click profile? I love seeing this tactic. He apologizes, then puts up some shit justification and THEN he adds a question to the end of his post, as questions always take up everything you’re thinking about because you immediately try to answer that question and almost seemingly forget what you just read lol, quality double fake of the old flame fanning. On October 09 2010 12:07 kane]deth[ wrote: I had voted for Double Lynch already, as we would be able to lynch BM. Yuh yuh guys I agree with you don’t get angry with me im doing wut u asked. DIE Also as a little tidbit rol almost replaced this dude, look at rols only post in that entire time On October 06 2010 16:00 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: HAI GUYS SO U NO IM IN THIS GAME NOW SO I WILL POST LATER AFTER I READ. Excuse for inactivity followed up by NOTHING. Sorry kane you’re not going to continue coasting by unnoticed. There’s nothing but wifom trying to draw away from if it was because of you on his list that pandain was killed or not, but one thing I do know, you’ve been doing fuck all for us and I have a pretty good idea why. You’re getting my vote, I will avenge you pandain! | ||
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err what? it's possible that mafia could poison someone and just have one of their members claim they took a hit you know. Not saying i think that's the case atm, i've generally seen opz in a pretty good light this game, but don't jump to conclusions so easily! | ||
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and does no one care about kane -_- | ||
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On October 10 2010 23:41 LSB wrote: Vet? Or Bulletproof? Or doc? We'll find that out by tomorrow. Anyways its a dumb idea for mafia to claim to be hit. If a person is poisoned tomorrow, we can easily lynch OpZ Basically we know that OpZ is blue. Unless of course doc protected him, but I don't know if he gets notification im not following your rationale say today there was hit+poison and he claimed he took a hit then tomorrow they could hit+poison, and hit+poision until the day they need 3 kills to win and then do hit+hit+poisonkill so no it wouldn't be dumb. I find it interesting that you say so though. | ||
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also i agree that kane is very new so you have to look at him carefully, which i did. He's gone above and beyond being a confused new player though, he's been a useless, parrot, waggony new player quite characteristic of a brand new mafia player. It's hard not to get into wifom when look at people like this, but the most simple conclusions seems to be he's floating by with NO posts, and no ideas of his own. At the very least if you believe he's town we need some proof of it, cause he's got 0 at this point and only evidence pointing towards mafia, thus voting would at least get him posting. | ||
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On October 11 2010 04:52 kane]deth[ wrote: I must say, you're entire analysis is bullshit; you're assuming that new players instantly take risks and because in the first few posts I have in mafia aren't decisive and inspired, that I am anti-town. I must say that there is truth though, I haven't contributed anything yet, but I promise I will by monday night. Of course you could say I'm delaying because I'm mafia but it IS thanksgiving over here and all. . and you're bullshit. See how i can do it too. You're worthless. New players dont have to do wild crazy shit, they arent expected to do amazing things,but it's the nature in which you're being reserved ie a retarded parrot that really concerns me. New players generally are scared but they try to jump in with two feet, they know they have nothing to hide so they arent afraid to say alot, they aren't afraid to put themselves out there. You've done NONE of this, I've seen too many games where that one mafia coasts by cause there's a big clash going on in town, and he keeps playing the im new and stupid card (while being true) which keeps him out of the spot light and lets him carry on doing nothing but put another vote on someone who is innocent. The fact that you get so hostile when you're finally attacked really makes me happy about my vote as it's the only emotion you've shown in this entire game you paper weight. | ||
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Divinek
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On October 11 2010 07:02 SouthRawrea wrote: Rightfully so because this game can hardly be considered an actual game now considering how we all lost on day 1. well really it was like a restart without the redistribution of roles. VI has always been lynched on day 1. That's no reason to act like a pathetic quitter. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On October 11 2010 11:47 Crisis_ wrote: I believe OpZ when he said he took a hit. Even if he's lying, it's not like it's hurting our game that much. If someone were poisoned, we'd find out the next night anyway, and figure he was lying. As for his wording, it is likely that he is a vet/bulletproof because he would have otherwise said "I was hit, but saved" or some wording like that. As for Cynan, I think he's definitely town now, after re-looking over his posts. They seemed suspicious before, but after looking at it from a town-play perspective, it was simply standard posting. I'm still looking forward to hearing from kane]deth[, though. There's just not enough evidence to really put him down. And while we're at it, since we have a double lynch, I'd like to hear from drag_ and ghrur, since they too have minimal posting. can you please read the thread. We would not find out the next night anyway, i actualy pm'd bb asking after it was brought up the first time and their death appears normal. And there doesn't have to be 3 kills, they can just keep poisoning. Don't clear someone so easily | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On October 11 2010 13:16 infinitestory wrote: SouthRawrea, I want to hear more from you. kingjames01 posted an excellent analysis a couple pages back which seems to have been lost in the sands of thread. I think the case against SouthRawrea of opposing a LOT of people but providing very little content is pretty strong. I'm not going to say he's my #1 suspect or whatever, but because we have so much information and so many analyses I hope to see defenses from everyone before I decide on my second vote (and maybe change my first vote too). SouthRawrea, please speak up; I know it's Thanksgiving in Canada, but I think you should at least be able to manage some defense or a quick explanation of your suspicions (others from Canada sure did). i agree. This is not an analysis we should let go unnoticed, it raises alot of very serious points. South has played enough games to know what is expected of him. In fact south is really more the type to not talk unless he's got some pressure on his inactive fanny. So vote ahoy. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
On October 11 2010 16:11 Bill Murray wrote: + Show Spoiler + On October 11 2010 13:02 kane]deth[ wrote: After looking back at Divinek's posts, I understand his mentality of pressuring me now. He seems mostly pro-town, pressuring the less active people into posting and trying to find out if they're red or not. He pretty much is just suspicious of inactives. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 00:13 Divinek wrote: oh my god lol. I think besides just sheer probability alone there is more than likely at least one mafia member in there. Yes they are likely to be active on day1, but they are also likely to just stay above the threshold of activity to go unnoticed. When there's that many people inactive there's not much pressure to post more than that 1, 'im here post', and even then they wouldn't have to until some more of these people start posting. SUP cynanmachine, you have the longest name so you stand out to me! + Show Spoiler + On October 02 2010 07:05 Divinek wrote: it's all if you think you can be active enough lol. Really you would probably only need to dedicate maybe an hour a day, during day cycles, to the game to be perfectly active enough. + Show Spoiler + On September 08 2010 14:01 Divinek wrote: wait the inactive player is hosting a game, i duuuuuuuunno. Is artanis active enough to compensate or something So yeah, from early on you can tell he has a dislike for inactives. So how does he deal with this? He likes to pressure people to talk by voting for them or otherwise. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 01:51 Divinek wrote: the idea is to not truly hang someone that has barely posted. Put to pressure someone with the threat of killing them should they not speak up. You are correct we NEVER get a mafia by killing someone that doesn't talk. This is because mafia have their buddies to help them out, and generally mafia players are more interested in the game so they will respond to pressure. Now obviously responding to pressure is a trait of every role in the game. But too many times there is a mafia in the lower what 10% of activity that manages to slip by because NO ONE pressures them, this is what we want to avoid. It is very difficult to find a mafia member if they don't have to talk. And they only have one motivation to talk, not to die. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 01:54 Divinek wrote: oh right there's only 11 hours left ##vote CynanMachine SPEAK UP BOY, if he doesnt ill have to look at someone that isnt going to get mod killed + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 05:30 Divinek wrote: though i do support what pandain is doing rng'ing amongst the inactives if that is the way you're going to vote because at least that makes sense. I mean i picked my guy because he had a long name, and look it got him posting! well he made one shitty post but still it worked + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 07:23 Divinek wrote: actually, actively singling out people and trying to beat them into the ground invokes quite a strong defense from the person who is being attacked, which is exactly what we need. Though I don't really like the shove it down your throat approach this early in the game, I see little wrong with taking the spot light to try and get people like you to do nothing but fan flames. The only issue that arises from this type of play is convincing yourself too easily that the person is mafia and then trying to make connections where there aren't really any. More so the idea is to place a FoS on the person and follow up the crusade in following days when more evidence has proven itself useful. Trying to hard is much much better than not trying enough. Because if someone is red and they're putting out alot of content we'll know it. But if someone like you is posting only once they see a chance to put light on someone, it makes it alot harder to analyze their thought process and go through and see their goals as anything other than fanning ala flames. I don't think you're acting poorly yet, but keep an open mind that just taking jabs at people for stuff like this is extremely weak, however it is fine day one as it does, just like scum hunting invoke a response BUT it is worse because while the person you're attacking generates content, you yourself really arent. Oh my god that sentence had wayy too many commas. Besides this he's analyzed me and XeliN. + Show Spoiler + On October 07 2010 22:31 Divinek wrote: okay i really shouldn't let this post slip up under the radar. lets pick apart individual parts to really get an idea of how blatant this shit is. straight up admits to being lazy and this is a good cover should he make any glaring errors in interpreting the situation. Which is FINE as long as he doesn't take some concrete stance from this right, after all he hasn't thoroughly read the thread right? first of all, there are two people that sent out the fucking PMs, ask them if you want they can verify. Secondly trying to pick apart wording from a role pm is HILARIOUS because as with every mafia game the example pm is in the fucking OP well this certainly seems to hurt with his first mini quote. He admits to barely reading the thread, and seemingly wants to JUMP at any chance to be able to vote at someone. Like first of all someone listening to bm's reasoning without discretion after he got the VI lynched = LOL secondly someone going well I DIDNT READ THE THREAD, then agreeing with someone who clearly is retarded is a terrible lapse in judgement. This is the first solid red read i've been getting off of anyone (besides bm but he doesn't count cause he always comes off as scummy). Xelin is not sticking his neck out, xelin is not forming his own opinions, xelin is throwing a vote on someone via someone elses terrible reasoning. This is a common tactic to go 'oh it's only joking semi place holder' then never move it if no one pressures you about it. Well guess what mother fucker you're getting pressure. + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 13:24 Divinek wrote: NOOOOO PANDAIN, as much as I hate your fadoodles at least you play this game with heart! I will seek to avenge you my brother Now lets look at this motherfucker kane, I know there’s not much to look at lol Flat out giving us his excuse that he’s not gonna contribute much and be inactive, ie ANTI town. An argument could be made for town neutrality but that would require content from him. This is not an original idea btw, he’s literally parroting about 3 other people at this point. Guilty conscience? I imagine his mafia buddies yelled at him for that one Time and time I have seen new mafia players try this card out. They are confused, they don’t know what to do, this prevents them from having to put forward any of their own ideas because they know they are quite likely to slip up in ways they haven’t even thought of yet. Newbie town players are quite often FEARLESS, they know they got nothing to hide and they get into this game because they are EXCITED to get those mafia! NOT SCARED, why would you be scared if you were town? Then he apologizes for not voting blah blah more guilty conscience fuel See that bolded word there? Yeah that’s right, OTHERs so if it goes bad (which it did) then he can go WELL I DIDN’T WANNA DO IT, but you guys presented such good arguments I agreed! Not my fault! It’s deflection at the most basic level Get rid of bm blah everyone already said that. Jumping on xelin too, everyone else did that. I mean this stuff would be fine to do of his own accord, but he’s just repeating everything that’s already been said. This is KEY because he can’t be caught for spewing bullshit because none of it is his own More I don’t know bullshit, as in don’t expect me to do things, to be useful. Blah blah im sick of your excuses. I love seeing this tactic. He apologizes, then puts up some shit justification and THEN he adds a question to the end of his post, as questions always take up everything you’re thinking about because you immediately try to answer that question and almost seemingly forget what you just read lol, quality double fake of the old flame fanning. Yuh yuh guys I agree with you don’t get angry with me im doing wut u asked. DIE Also as a little tidbit rol almost replaced this dude, look at rols only post in that entire time Excuse for inactivity followed up by NOTHING. Sorry kane you’re not going to continue coasting by unnoticed. There’s nothing but wifom trying to draw away from if it was because of you on his list that pandain was killed or not, but one thing I do know, you’ve been doing fuck all for us and I have a pretty good idea why. You’re getting my vote, I will avenge you pandain! So what can I conclude from this? A mostly pro-town attitude, determined to weed out mafia, and to get others to contribute. Mostly his other posts were commenting on small things like BM and such. Hope this is what analysis is supposed to look like anyways. Actually, THERE IS NO WAY I'M VOTING KANE]DETH[ right now. Reason: I do not see him making this play as mafia. If he did analysis on someone, would he conclude town? If he was mafia, he would want to "Scumhunt", "find a red", and then say lynch this dude. If he was mafia, he would know who was green/blue and not mafia through deductive reasoning, and wouldn't have the balls to make this play imo. rasta played a game with me where he did a big analysis on bum when bum was town and then concluded town. It's not very hard to do when you're mafia cause you're right 100% of the time lol. | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
will be posting up a vote and analysis when i get home | ||
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Divinek
Canada4045 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On October 12 2010 08:04 meeple wrote: Alright... so I was going to write something up on Crisis_ but he's just not that interesting... and not really a contender... I did do a drag_ analysis a while ago since he was someone slipping under the radar. drag_ He hasn't been that active, but when he has... it's generally been pretty genuine. Examples include: In all his posts I can't find anything really scummy and there's nothing fishy about his votes... so for the moment I'm treating him as green. For my votes... since I've been falling a little behind... I weighed in some of the top contenders for a lynch... and figured that Xelin and Southrawrea were the people I felt most scummy of. I'm sure that one of the bandwagons are on a red... and that some of the people who haven't voted yet are mafia waiting to swap a close bandwagon and save their buddy. I'm watching SINiquity, kane]deth[, SouthRawrea, CynanMachae, ghrur, and Crisis_ for that reason On October 12 2010 08:22 ghrur wrote: + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 22:15 kingjames01 wrote: Okay, so after making that previous post, I went back through the thread with the intention of extraction each and every post made in-game by the players from the short list above. I wanted to cross-reference their votes made in the other thread so that I could look for inconsistencies and patterns, complete with timelines and personal comments. I started in numerical order as dictated in the OP and I was typing this all up in a text editor but I just have to share with you something. SouthRawrea is either a very bad Town or a very bad Mafia. Let's examine his 17 posts. + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2010 09:29 SouthRawrea wrote: This game: There are several differences in this setup than regular mafia games in case you can't be bothered to read the role descriptions. 1) Detective must wait until Night 2 for investigation which is frankly not helpful as it is 1 less report overall per detective. 2) Vigilante gets their shot or bat back if they overlap with mafia. Not a huge deal as an overlap isn't that likely. 3) Godfather can fake Village Idiot. Frankly as some have stated before this may be a bit OP and is a very good reason for Vigilante to save their bat. 4) Roleblocker now cannot block someone twice in a row which make DT claiming a little more viable especially once mafia loses a KP. 5) Mafia can practically save a KP for the next day while the poisoner is still alive. Three huge things to watch out for 1) Like stated earlier, the Vigilante must not shoot until we get a Village Idiot report as it is the only way of safely killing a potential Village Idiot/Godfather as town. 2) Mafia can continuously use poison from any point in the game and have on of their players claim hit Veteran. The mafia will then be able to unleash 3 NK at any one night from that point onwards while having 1 NK the night before the claim and 2 NK for every night in between. This can be dangerous if town is too trusting of the hit claim and/or forgets about the 3 NK. Ex: Night 2 : 1 poison 1 shot Day 2: 1 death, mafia claims hit Night 3: 1 poison 1 shot Day 3: 2 deaths Night 4 1 poison 1 shot Day 4: 2 deaths Night 5: 2 shot Day 5: 3 deaths 3) Finally in a Lylo situation with Village idiot still alive, mafia can have a joint-win with the Village Idiot by lynching him. This will result in the day ending with both the Village Idiot and the Mafia's win requirements being fulfilled. (VI gets lynched and mafia # = town #) Comment: This post reiterates content from the OP with commentary and ways the mechanics will come into play. There is no stance taken on how Day 1's lynch should take place. Overall a very shallow post. Note that SouthRawrea advocates saving the Vigilante to use against the Village Idiot. My question is what takes preference, killing a Red or the VI? + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2010 11:27 SouthRawrea wrote: I'd have to agree with most of this. Mafia often snipe the quiet folk as they are often medics or other good power-roles. In my first game on TL where we were mafia that was one of the tell-tale signs of the medic we sniped. I'd also agree with you on the DT building an argument but I'm against claiming at this point in time until the DT builds up a few more reports. He can't just let his reports do the work for him; he has to be a proactive townie. I'm going to assume that last part was directed to me. This kind of situation was common on the site I used to go on and made the Village Idiot all that more dangerous. This reinforces the reasoning that I had for saving the vig shot until we're sure that we've got either the idiot or the GF. Comment: Seems to be a passive-aggressive push for the Blues to come out of hiding. The Medic should not be "one of the quiet folk" or the mafia will know who he is. The Detective has to be a "proactive townie". Again, he says to save the Vigilante but adds that the Godfather should also be considered a good hit. How do we identify the Godfather anyway? Could be well-intentioned advice; I'm not sure. Supports ~OpZ~. + Show Spoiler + On October 05 2010 21:48 SouthRawrea wrote: Woot no joint wins! )))Comment: No substance. Expresses happiness over the ruling that VI cannot share wins. Consistent with above post. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 05:04 SouthRawrea wrote: At this point in time I would have to say that NuketheBunny's current strategy is pretty blatant and although I don't completely agree with how he's going about doing it, I would have to say I would like to get the more experience inactives to say something. I'm seeing some of the newer players being earnest in their attempt to play (ex: kingjames01) and this is a good sign. As they are much newer I wouldn't expect them to contribute as much. We're only 3 pages into this game so far however and although I believe we're jumping the gun on the entire: lynch inactives. We are left with the problem of only 11 hours left in this game and plenty of inactives though so if we must come to an accord quickly for our lynch. Random Lynch is a good option in this game as we have many newer players which also explains the high number of inactives. Oh god I'm terribly sorry about how unorganized this post is, I'm brain dead at the moment. :/ What I mean to say is that this day is short, we have lots of new players who are inactive, we should random lynch because many players haven't been given a proper chance to post as of yet. Comment: Wants inactive players to be more active. Does not support lynching inactives this early in the game. Supports voting randoms. Is neutral to NukeTheBunnys. October 06 2010 05:07. (07:53 remaining Day 1) ##Vote Divinek Justification: None provided. I don't understand this vote. I just checked and SouthRawrea is the only other person to have voted for Divinek including retracted votes. Was Divinek chosen randomly, then? Or is there some other reason? + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 05:46 SouthRawrea wrote: That's not how RNG works usually. A couple people will RNG rolls and the town will bandwagon . Derp. Sorry my head wasn't all there when I was typing up that post.Comment: Divinek points out that SouthRawrea does not justify his vote and assumes it was random. SouthRawrea says that random votes start bandwagons. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 09:45 SouthRawrea wrote: Err BM he wasn't in TL Mafia XXX... ? I'd also like to hear more about the smurf thing :O. Comment: Indicates he does not know the smurf's aka. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 11:20 SouthRawrea wrote: It's funny because I remember who pro is and I'm going to leave pro be. Comment: Indicates he does know the smurf's aka. I don't understand. October 06 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 1) Protactinium is lynched. Comment: The day finishes and he never switched his vote from Divinek who he "randomly" chose. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 21:46 SouthRawrea wrote: I lol'd so so soooo hard. Comment: No substance. Inanity. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 22:06 SouthRawrea wrote: Hey Happy.. the game is still on .. reaad. Comment: No substance. Also, ironic since Happy.fairytail was modkilled and replaced. "reaad" October 07 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Night 1) bumatlarge and Infundibulum are killed. Comment: No direct link between these three players. + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2010 07:00 SouthRawrea wrote: AH forgot about this game totally with getting my haircut and preparing for other stuff and what not :/. Strangely enough I find myself agreeing with BM's take on Happy.fairytail and BC. I'm going to completely ignore the Role PM controversy (with the whole TOWN vs CITIZEN thing) as even if it wasn't a miscommunication, in my opinion BM comes out on top simply because it is slightly suspicious. I would like to say this, I've been pretty inactive this day but I find that Misder's posts during day 1 have been consistent with not wanting to lynch without reasons. Eventually he gradually admits that he wouldn't want to lynch an inactive but votes for Xelin and then switches to Opz because he was inactive as well. This to me screams timid town role behaviour rather than mafia simply because his votes aren't quite bandwagonesque. In this case I believe that NuketheBunnys if mafia. Comment: Explains inactivity. Will ignore PM controversy. However, the PM controversy makes BC look suspicious. Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives on Day 1. Inconsistent with above. Claims NukeThe Bunnys is mafia. I just read the rest of the post and his logic for this claim very tenuous. Nuke is mafia because he opposes Bill Murray. Also, insinuates that NukeTheBunnys makes "empty promises". Opposes Happy.fairytail/BloodyC0bbler. Supports Bill Murray. Supports Misder. Opposes NukeTheBunnys. October 09 2010 07:01. (05:59 remaining Day 2) ##Vote NukeTheBunnys Justification: NukeTheBunnys opposed Bill Murray October 09 2010 07:27. (05:33 remaining Day 2) ##Vote Double Lynch Justification: None provided + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2010 08:31 SouthRawrea wrote: I was actually pleased that NuketheBunnys made that post and then I read it. >.> Think of analysis like an English essay. The point of it is not to summarize but to prove a point. :/ A couple ways to improve this is to perhaps cut out some one liners or group them all together and provide your point for them altogether. An example of what you could've done is instead of saying "buddies up with xelin even more", you could've tried to indicate a connection between the two and went over a handful of their posts in relation to each other (When doing this just look to see if there is anything that shows an obvious connection between the two). If this is horrible advice I'm sorry but I'm pretty sure that it's good advice . You did provide a conclusion at the end which was essential but it'd be nice if you could link it all together.Comment: Here SouthRawrea supports NukeTheBunnys post? Then proceeds to disparage his arguments because they do not prove a point? Will investigate more. Okay, I just looked up the post. It is a very detailed look into Bill Murray's behaviour in the game. I think that the evidence provided paints a very convincing picture. Why does SouthRawrea not comment on the validity of the arguments rather than the structure of the post? Also, why doesn't he quote this post so we know what he's talking about? Finally, he doesn't retract his earlier insult about delivering on "empty promises". Opposes NukeTheBunnys. + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2010 08:46 SouthRawrea wrote: I can answer #1 for you Kingjames: Usually it's safer to maintain a worst case scenario mindset until we get a bit more insight into whether or not there is a roleblocker. (ex: roleblocked claim) Comment: This was an answer to my question about why Pandain assumes the presence of the RoleBlocker. Satisfactory and illuminating. October 09 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Day 2) Misder is lynched. + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 05:58 SouthRawrea wrote: Hey people that voted Misder, I'm checking you out. Comment: Empty and completely unnecessary threat. I'm sure anyone who is innocent will do the same thing. Supports Misder (who is dead). + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote: Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU. Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea. People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38 ~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me. In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory. Comment: Publicly states he wants to break the rules. Implies that he does not have the ability to PM. I don't understand the "Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods". Lists the players who voted for Misder during the previous day and their justifications. Only provides a link to Pandain and summarizes the rest in his own words. Of the 6 voters, only Pandain has a good reason apparently. Expresses intent to investigate drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica and/or XeliN. Will keep an eye out for this. For good measure, he accuses (without justification) BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory. Suggests that he might die overnight. Supports Pandain. Opposes drag_. Opposes LSB. Opposes DoctorHelvetica. and/or Opposes XeliN. Opposes BloodyC0bbler. Opposes kingjames01. Opposes infinitestory. + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 10:53 SouthRawrea wrote: :D I'm glad you could consolidate your posts. No hard feelings? I actually think I screwed the ctrl+f thing that one time while searching. It began the search part way through. Sorry about that. It wasa genuine mistake. I was going back through what I searched through just to make sure everything was right and yeah you did express suspicion. I'm in no way clearing you though .Comment: I think he is referring to DoctorHelvetica's response. Very slimy and takes back his earlier statement about DrH's lack of justification for voting Misder. This seems suspicious. Is neutral to DoctorHelvetica. + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 10:55 SouthRawrea wrote: Other junky posts were available at the time . I just felt you didn't have as good of a raisin bran muffin. (reason)Comment: LSB defends his vote and SouthRawrea implies that LSB should have chosen someone else. + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 11:01 SouthRawrea wrote: EBWOP: Sorry for triple post but post 1 is directed toward DrH and Post 2 at LSB Comment: No substance. Confirms that his previous two posts were directed at DoctorHelvetica and LSB as I thought. October 10 2010 13:00. (00:00 remaining Night 2) Pandain is killed. Conclusion - Casts vote on Day 1 without justification - Indicates that he opposes lynching inactives because the "town will bandwagon" - Justifies Misder's choice to lynch inactives - Implies he does not know the smurf but in the following post says he remembers who the smurf is - Accuses NukeTheBunnys of being mafia since he opposes Bill Murray - When NukeTheBunnys replies, SouthRawrea dismisses all arguments by saying it's not in an essay form. Calls it "good advice". - After Misder is lynched and revealed to be Town, SouthRawrea quickly aligns himself and makes an empty threat - SouthRawrea publicly aligns himself to Pandain citing that he was the only one with a good "raisin bran muffin" - In the same post SouthRawrea accuses drag_, LSB, DoctorHelvetica, and/or XeliN, BloodyC0bbler, kingjames01 and infinitestory - Suggests that he might be a target that night - 2 hours and 15 minutes later Pandain is killed - No post since Together in one place, these posts paint SouthRawrea into a very small corner. I propose that the town takes action. I want SouthRawrea to explain himself. This is a beautiful post. the last part is especially great for summarizing why SouthRawrea seems suspicious Allow me to further this by looking at some of his recent posts: + Show Spoiler + On October 10 2010 10:45 SouthRawrea wrote: Just because I'm not allowed to PM, I'd like to express my wish to PM Pandain expressedly. PANDAIN I WANT TO PM YOU. Just a suggestion: Questioning of Siniquity/BM on the part of the mods might be a good idea. People who voted for lynching Misder in order of best reasons: Pandain - Pretty well done analysis on http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=151150¤tpage=38 ~OpZ~ -For the unexplained vote Misder put on ~OpZ~ infinitestory - Actually makes a post explaining why he though Misder was suspicious though I can't see why he'd vote for him in particular because he had plenty of other suspects at the time. DoctorHelvetica - No good reason. He was tunneling Siniquity the entire time and gave no real reason for Misder. LSB - He basically goes to pandain "who know you might be right" and votes Misder... drag_ - Absolutely nothing. A total of 10 posts. There almost seem to be 12 posts but 2 of those are from a link of siniquity's This was just me scanning over the posts and making it public who I'm going to examine. I would start with drag_ but because he has so little posts I thinking I'll examine him and LSB (as JeeJee didn't make a single post). Most likely within the same day I will go over DoctorHelvetica and/or Xelin because this particular post caught my eye. It just seems like a post that could be reduced to under 10 words and has no explanation within it and only an elongated 1 point opinion. I know I've been guilty of this to some degree except without just providing opinion. However it seems like major "slipping under the radar" to me. In case of my death tonight Suspects: Xelin, DrHelvetica, BloodC0bbler and at least 2 of the newer players including KingJames, drag_ and infinitestory. Once again, accusing multiple people without detailed analysis. Instead, he scans and accuses. Why would anyone accuse 6 people at once? It seems to just cause confusion and make people point fingers instead of doing what town should ACTUALLY be doing. Analyzing behavior, focusing on specific, scummy points, and hunting reds. Pointing all around does nothing. It's just as good as using a RNG. + Show Spoiler + Double Lynches are situational and in games usually by Day 3, the town has gathered enough information that they have at least a handful of suspects in mind especially if there is a claim/counterclaim situation at hand. Notice, he only posts a reason AFTER he voted and AFTER someone questioned him on it. Trying to slip under the radar? Probably. + Show Spoiler + I accused NukeTheBunnys based on his hesitance to analyze Bill Murray even though he was sure the Bill Murray was either Village Idiot or Mafia Interestingly enough, this is why I'm also accusing you. SouthRawrea has been hesitant to go into any detailed analysis about players despite his accusations. + Show Spoiler + I realized that i was low on the post count at this point in time and that I had to take a bit more action. Once again not empty. >.> Now this is truly interesting. Why would one be afraid to be low on post count? BM is very high on post count and it isn't exactly helping. But here's the thing, posts reveal information. SR might be hiding in the shadows because he doesn't want to give town any more information than necessary, much like the advice listed in the most basic of guides, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=132936. So what does he do? He gives posts with little information. Absolutely minimal. An empty threat to boost his post count so he's less likely to get noticed. Very fishy to me. The lack of analysis and the boosting of post count with spam posts seem really suspicious to me. If he were pro-town, he'd definitely be more active with useful, beneficial posts instead of just throwing it off with On October 12 2010 08:49 SouthRawrea wrote: Okay first of all that's what she said and second: drag_ A new player he spends his first few posts, like many other new players, trying to orient himself in this game. Here in this analysis I'll be avoiding posts such as these in order to get to the point (I may however refer to them to attempt to get a better grasp on his behaviour) : + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 01:47 drag_ wrote: Hi guys, I'm generally going to be posting around this time as it fits my time zone/schedule better I don't really understand the point of voting inactives off? I'm new at this game, but surely that just makes it really easy for the mafia to avoid getting voted off for the first few rounds. Unless they're just really lazy... The first post giving insight into his mindset is: + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 05:42 drag_ wrote: It's a hard choice for me, because there's so many layers meaning (if unclear read the Old Man and the Sea) behind every post. However, you, Mr. Kingjames seem to be trying a little too hard in my eyes to already single out a target and to shift blame elsewhere. I'm a little more skeptical of people who post a lot of accusative posts as opposed to just general conversation. He begins by expressing his inability to make a choice which can be perfectly normal depending on your approach to this game on your first play. The real defining factor here is that he does not like the fact that Kingjames01 begins laying down an FoS on Crisis_. This is due to the reason that this attack was premature in drag_'s opinion and prefers to have lighter topics fill the thread. One could argue that he wants to come off as a timid player as to slip under the radar. The other likely scenario here is that he isn't completely familiar with the game's mechanics. Let's delve further into his posts. As this next post is upon the same topic, we are able to see a more detailed analysis on the characteristics we took a peak at in the previous post. + Show Spoiler + On October 06 2010 06:26 drag_ wrote: This just furthers my point about you. You act as if my post was all part of your multiple phase plan, before completely changing the subject to you accusing me of lying in wait and singling you out with my 'slimy words'. Once again another clear shift of blame from yourself towards me and another accusative post. If this were a debate I would have to hand the win to kingjames01. drag_'s response to Kingjames' response is that of one who reads selectively. He first avoids the fact that Kingjames is actually working earnestly to earn the town information and skips to the part of the post directed at him. I am personally confused however by his accusation of a multi-phase plan. I can only assume that he means Kingjames laid a trap for drag_. This however is not the case as drag_ really did come out of hiding from having only 1 post to a sudden assault on Kingjames' playstyle. Now comes an example of classic hypocrisy: Drag_ attacks kingjames, Kingjames attacks drag_, drag accuses kingjames of shifting blame all the while shifting blame from himself. Brilliant. As any faction in this game, drag_'s intention would be considered sound as he is defending himself from a retaliatory post. What needs to be taken note of here is his opposition to early votes on people. This suggests that he has an affinity for passive play in this particular game but is quick to defend himself. This next post I find is riddled with distinctive traits. + Show Spoiler + On October 07 2010 15:20 drag_ wrote: I don't really understand you Bill Murray. You post a lot of spam posts and you draw a lot of attention to yourself while alienating yourself from the rest of us. This could mean your VI and you're trying to piss us off and make it look like your mafia so we vote you off. That seems a little too obvious though. What I do think could be possible is that you are using this spam to make it look like your VI when you really could be red, but we don't lynch you because we're scared you're VI. Not an accusation per se, just general chit-chat. The first thing that I notice is one thing he says in particular: "alienating yourself from the rest of us". He clearly believes that he is the same as the rest of the players and this is the way the game should be. Out of the three possible color-coordinated roles one can get (barring Village idiot) who benefits the most from making others think they are exactly the same as the rest? Mafia. The blues do benefit from this but not as much and the townies shouldn't care at all as they are trying to find mafia, not fit in. Next: He shows his disdain for Bill Murray's spam quite clearly but he himself suffers from the opposite: lack of posts. Lacking posts or having the bare minimum is another commonly used tactic to slip under the radar. I will clarify here what should already be known by all the players here just to emphasize my point: Trying to slip under the radar is an anti-town move. I know I am guilty of this to an extent but if you've played with me you'll know that I'll come up with several large posts throughout the course of a game. As well another thing I find strange is that he still thinks that chit-chat is the best course of action at this point in the game. Huh.. The two explanations that I can think of are : 1) STILL not familiar with the game or 2) Trying to slow down town's progress. Regardless, I move on. It seems hypocrisy is this man's strong suit as with only 4 in game posts he posts this: + Show Spoiler + On October 08 2010 05:30 drag_ wrote: There are so many little sub-arguments going on right now I'm really struggling to make heads or tails of anything. That said, while BM may be a tool, I think it's more important to crack down on inactive people. In a 25 person game it's really easy to slip under the radar. I feel like focussing on BM is just a waste of time atm. He pulls the confused card that is used every once in a while in a mafia game to give himself an excuse not to formulate an opinion at that point in time. Not a good thing to be doing as town. The next little bit although it may be hypocritical, it erects a facade. It makes it seem as if he is not one of those inactives that he wishes to crack down on and that he is genuinely interested in advancing in discussions as town. This here, although it may not be much evidence, screams mafia to me. I skipped a post because I felt that the question he asked wasn't worth analyzing but this next one contains a bit of information that we can squeeze out. + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2010 03:21 drag_ wrote: Just because he's an "asshole" (mean to imply his posting habits are annoying) does not mean I consider him mafia. Secondly, I feel he is harmless, but I didn't rule out the possibility he isn't. I am really curious to discover what he is - he's really giving me a mind-fuck and I wouldn't mind his death via vigilante. Sure enough he wants Bill Murray dead but not by lynch.. simple. The information we can gain from here is that so far up until this point he has not had a SINGLE opinion on the alignment of a single player. He does not want to make any enemies and sure as hell does not want to be Public Enemy #1. He's perfectly okay with picking on Public Enemy #1 however as that is a relatively safe move. He has yet to contribute in ANY way at all, not even in the slightest. And yet another post from this "great" player: + Show Spoiler + On October 09 2010 02:23 drag_ wrote: Ok thanks for clarifying. I guess I'll give a little insight into what I'm thinking: NuketheBunnys: This guy kinda seems a little clueless of the big picture, I'm not so sure on his analysis and his comments, he seems to focus on inactives. However, I think it's pretty fair to say he's town. The style of his writing and the way he comes off is very hard to fake imo, so I'd be fairly sure he's town. Say 85% BM: Asshole. Would be a definite target for tomorrow, however I'm unsure about him today. DocH + Pandain: I'm almost positive you two are either Blue or Red. There's something not quite right about both of you, but I can't put my finger on it. ATM I'm more inclined to agree that you're Blue, however I'm a little skeptical at your strong support of a double lynch. That said, I have no real reason to suspect your red - just a gut feeling you know? BM: asshole. That said, I feel you're pretty harmless. You clearly have this whole "TL Mafia" persona, from looking at your other posts outside of mafia. I feel that although he looks harmless, he needs to die. I hope he gets vigi'd but he would definitely be a target for me tomorrow. Xelin and Crisis_: These guys are shady. But I really no connection between the two of them - I have a feeling one of them is red and the other is green, however I can't put my finger on it. KingJames: Really got no read on you - you were really aggressive on day 1, but since then you've basically posted 0 content. This might be because you don't want to stick out - meaning you could either be taking orders from someone else, or you don't want to become a target. Really unsure about you. Other people really haven't been on my radar. These aren't meant to be taken as accusations, more just what's running through my head if you feel me. Aside from calling BM an asshole twice (lol) he finally starts coming up with a couple of opinions on people. What I would want to say here is something along the lines of no one cares but I wouldn't do that . He however returns to his timid stance when he says "these aren't meant to be taken as accusations". I'm sure even he can see a common theme within his posts. " I'm going to attack only when someone really won't be able to get me back and I'll stay quiet about everyone else and perhaps just quiet in general so that no one notices me."Ah and his longest post! + Show Spoiler + On October 12 2010 04:55 drag_ wrote: Ok, I did some voting analysis for what it's worth. There a lot of assumptions, but here goes: Firstly, some assumptions. The mafia has 5 votes. I think it's fair to say that they clearly do not vote in one big block. However I think it's also fair to say that they don't vote for 5 different guys completely randomly. My guess would be that the mafia may be split into 2 or 3 groups - where each day 2 people will vote for the guy they want to hit to make sure he dies, and the others will vote relatively randomly to prevent any sort of pattern emerging. This could be true because the mafia will never stay in one group, because if one gets caught then it makes it much easier to find the rest. This is all theory - no factual evidence to support this, but I think it could possibly make sense. Therefore, to identify some clue of who the mafia is we need to look at someone who votes for the person killed, and then votes for someone on pretty weak evidence. However this is far too general, and cannot be conclusive. However the vote for the double lynch just passed yesterday gaining exactly the 12 votes needed. Now there were 20 voters yesterday - I will not include myself because I'm confident in my not being red. If we look at around two hours before the vote there are three votes for double lynch that come in the space of 15 mins. Now there is nothing overly suspicious of this, except that all three of these people had voted before with who they wanted to lynch and then as it seemed the double would not pass they support it. These are: LSB Sinquity Crisis_ Now just for fun I'll do a little probing into each of them. That's what she said. I'm unsure about LSB - he didn't make a vote first day so it's hard to analyze what the rationale behind his vote was. Sinquity is a little more fishy potentially. On day 1 he voted for protactinum, who was later lynched. He does not post an actual reason for protactinium, unless I can't find it. Also, on day 1 the person who attacked him the most was Panda, a very good townie. Panda was later bumped off the next day. However next day he votes for meeple, and is the only one too, seemingly without any reason. Then a full day later he posts his rather short explanation This really is not convincing reasoning to me. It seems half hearted, and furthermore he does not follow up with this after he votes. He has not mentioned Meeple at all since this post if I searched correctly. The timing of his vote for Meeple is also peculiar. He votes at 11:45, when it is almost certain that Misder is going to be lynched. At his time of voting he still hasn't provided justification for Meeple, I believe. This to me almost seems like he just picked a random then attempted to justify it later. Why? I believe he was waiting to make sure misder got lynched. Once it was clear he cast a vote that would draw attention away from himself. Furthermore he votes for the double lynch late in the evening, at 10:22, under the pretext that Xellin told him that there were unlimited doubles. This is dubious. If you were curious, you would look on the front page, where it clearly states there are 2 remaining. Unless of course he's looking for an excuse to pull back on his vote at a later date. Once again why? At his time of voting there was a lot of voting activity in general. It was not absurd to see someone withdrawing from the double. However his vote gave the double a 1 vote security against this. It would be more revealing if every time someone pulled out, one person immediately took his place to make an exact 12. He himself then pulls out because he sees Xelin "lied to him". This draws attention away from him and to Xelin, when it was a simple problem to begin with, and it supplies him with a fair motive to change his vote. Although I'm unsure why he pulled out. This is what puzzles me. One possible motive is that he wants to give a conservative front and act as if he wants as little death as possible, contrary to the mafia. I'm unsure, but I have to say the statistics are little curious. Crisis_: He follows the same pattern of voting for the person who gets lynched, and then voting seemingly randomly. He votes for protactinium, and then he is the ONLY person to vote for BillMurray. He once again posts his vote before giving a reason. His explanation is also not very convincing: He posts this after his vote. This is not an explanation of any detail. He later claims he will change his vote, but of course he does not. However, he does participate in the voting thread again. This clearly means that he hasn't forgotten, but has no intentions of switching his vote. At 8:49 at the end of Day 2 he makes this post From this we know that he is aware Panda is online, and Panda replies to his question 3 minutes later, yet it takes Crisis a full 1 and a half to change his post, and he provides 0 reasoning for it. This makes it seem as if he is asking someone else about the double lynch. His vote change is at the same time as Sinquinity's. To me it appears that he was waited for Sinquinity to reply to his question about the double lynch, and getting the go ahead from siniquity, he changes his vote. From the time of their posts we can tell that they were online at the same time. Sin had not posted for awhile, while we know that Crisis had been online for a long time. There is very little reason I can see for the delay in Crisis changing his vote, unless he was waiting for something, like Sin answering his question. This may also explain Sin's post including Xellin. A potential scenario: Sin replies to Crisis to vote for the double. Sin then sees it might not past and wants to vote for it to create a bandwagon effect, or just for some insurance. However he sees the proximity of their posts and sees this could be a link between them. He puts in the bit about Xellin as a cover story. The above is merely theory, and of course cannot be proven. However, I felt like it was an interesting idea, and wanted to share it. That said I'm suspicious of crisis and siniquity until they can prove otherwise. He's off too a good start with naming his suspicions. He then begins by pushing suspicion on to Siniquity because of votes he has placed? Huh.. I wonder who killed Misder then. Oh yeah.. He asks alot of "why?"s but never really says anything. He posts that he believes he waited to make sure Misder would get lynched which really doesn't say much. drag_ however sees this and goes on to say that he's confused but you can clearly tell that he has no idea what any of Siniquity's behaviour means. He maintains the same pattern for analyzing Crisis_ and then follows it up by avoiding a conclusion and weakening his post's credibility by claiming that it's all only a theory. He basically admits that it all means nothing. But oh no! He's going to be suspicious of the two! Based on his activity level and his level of influence within the town, we know that nothing is ever going to happen. The post he makes here is long sure enough but it only voices his apparent confusion. It provides other players the sense that he is in fact contributing when really he isn't. Also: What ever happened to analyzing LSB? His votes have been wishy-washy from Day 1 as well. He votes for the one person he communicates with on Day 1 and that is Kingjames. Is there any good reason other than the fact that he seemed to view Kingjames aggression as overzealous? No. He then make a vote for Misder which he NEVER mentions. Good job mate. Finally his current vote is for someone he's confused about. None of his votes are proactive or pro-town in anyway. Drag_ has been consistently trying to fit in as part of the town while not contributing in any way other than a couple of opinion posts. He tries to make up for this by making it seem like he's posting worthy material and ignoring his blatant hypocrisy but it's just not happening. It may be a bit too hard on him to attack his weaknesses in his first game but remember: mods balances the teams so there are bound to be new players in the mafia team. I am convinced that drag_ is the most mafia-esque of them all. Death to drag_ P.S. I keep my promises although I didn't get around to making a 2 person analysis as this one was longer than I though. I think this boils down with me agreeing to the meeple and ghuru analysis, and not the south one lol. It comes out as the first two seem like genuine attempts to try and understand why someone is doing what they're doing and then coming to a conclusion. While souths post screams like he's trying to force someone to come to a certain alignment by the time he's done. The arguments are weak and narrow minded, and the case against him is monumental. | ||
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On October 15 2010 08:19 SiNiquity wrote: I don't follow. Someone gets poisoned and someone gets hit, after which you claim a hit (1 person dies). Then they poison someone again and hit someone again. Initial poison victim dies and new mafia hit dies, so 2 people die last night and no one knows the difference. The only way we'd be able to tell with such certainty as you claim AFAIK is if the the host were to allude to the poisoning in the narrative. I asked if this would be the case a few pages back but didn't get a clarification. I don't doubt that you're town, but I just don't follow how 2 people dying last night guarantees your innocence (even up to 99% confidence). i pm'd bb the first time this came up as it's pretty important and he said there would be no difference so we would have no idea if someone was killed by poison or not | ||
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On October 15 2010 10:04 kane]deth[ wrote: I am at a lost of what to do now... BM was the most suspicious to me, then Amber, yet neither of them were mafia. Seems Mafia behind the bandwagons too, as we are down 0 mafia after 3 days. Perhaps the accusations against SR are aided by mafia too? well it's more a question of why didnt he die yesterday? He was so close, and then the votes swayed just enough away from him that he survived. This wasn't the first time that people accused him and somehow the votes managed to stay away from him. Just look at the analysis already done on him, it's amazing he's survived this long. He analyzed someone as being mafia where the analysis was just ridiculous right AFTER meeple posted an analysis on that person being green, and his analysis was bang on in my opinion, it seemed really clear that based on those posts that while inactive drag_ is coming off with nothing but town oriented intentions. And then south finds a way to pin him as mafia lol? | ||
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On October 15 2010 14:58 infinitestory wrote: ok wtf so the detectives pretty much all knew each other DrH and kingjames did really impressive pro-town games, I'm amazed (I also had a feeling Godfather would pose as a DT) BC we knew, but he defended himself more than some of the townies >___> and based on the modkills and lynch, I was prepared to guess Divinek and ghrur as mafia o_O I think the crux of this game boiled down to having so many new players / inactives that finding suspects who didn't defend themselves or couldn't do it properly was more than easy, it was guaranteed. doesnt matter what you guess if you cant get them lynched lol! it boiled down to town being too lazy and passive here's for finding a red then not claiming and getting him killed! oh i forgot about the need to say FLAWLESS VICTORY also dont say you knew bc, you obviously didnt know or you woulda been all VOTE BC VOTE BC VOTE BC every page i believe that you highly suspected him! | ||
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soooo hilariously obvious ill actually quote myself here " it's like okay town this game was like 5 year olds playing soccer everyone runs at the ball so everytime an accusation came up they forgot about the last one " | ||
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On October 15 2010 15:18 infinitestory wrote: i honestly love that you guys didn't lynch me after my day 1, which i might as well have posted while high/drunk/somehow or other incapacitated we didnt care about you because you clearly had no idea what was going on lol | ||
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On October 15 2010 15:22 kingjames01 wrote: Yeah, towards the last couple of days I was really worried that we NEVER attacked each other in the game. We wouldn't even mention the others' names... That was making me sweat a little. Then, ghrur said that my post about South was "beautiful"... :O That made me pretty anxious... i usually find about half the mafia team because of stuff like this, but it was pretty obvious no one on this game was bothering to think that deeply. Or listen to anyone that sounded reasonable at all so huzzah! competing for belkar award yo | ||
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On October 15 2010 15:33 kingjames01 wrote: I laughed every time someone posted a list of suspects and I turned up Green... SAME lol | ||
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On October 15 2010 23:02 Pandain wrote: what I found interseting is that all the mafia in this game were active contributors(maybe except for divinek and slightly ghurur). They were probably the most active out of everyone. So much for the stereotype of the lurking mafia. lol i was only active for the first half of the game, after that i realized no one would notice if i just stopped saying anything and thus i did ez mode | ||
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On October 16 2010 05:18 Pandain wrote: Did you just get new icon? If so, congrats! Also, one of the things that made me think DR. H was innocent was his defense of infun, he fervently defended him. That was a nice move there. yeah i r high temp you have to remmeber if you follow that line of reasoning we do KNOW who all the townies are so it's not hard to defend just one lol, plenty to kill | ||
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